GBP/NZD Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

EUR/JPY: The Bank of Japan maintains a soft policy amid lower inflationThe EUR/JPY pair is trading around 163.10 as of October 14, which is 0.01% higher compared to the previous trading session. After volatile fluctuations at the beginning of the week, the instrument showed stabilization as traders continue to monitor the economic data of the Eurozone and Japan, assessing the prospects for changes in monetary policy in both countries.In the Eurozone, the economic situation remains under pressure due to a combination of weak industrial growth and low inflation expectations. According to the latest data published by the German Federal Statistical Office, industrial production increased by 1.6% in August, which is higher than forecast and gives a positive signal to the markets. Nevertheless, economic activity in the euro area remains weak: preliminary inflation forecasts for October show a level of 2.2%, which is lower than the average values observed in the first half of the year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to take additional stimulus measures, given that economic growth remains below expected. In September, the ECB announced its intention to keep interest rates at the current level to stimulate demand and investment, but analysts do not rule out further easing if inflation remains below the 2.0% target and GDP continues to grow weakly.In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy, while continuing to use low interest rates to stimulate the economy. September data showed a decrease in inflation to 2.5% compared with 3.0% in August, indicating a slowdown in the growth of prices for goods and services. Although inflation in the country is still higher than in previous years, its decline eases the pressure on the central bank to change the current policy course. Japan's main macroeconomic indicators are showing stability, but economists are paying attention to a slowdown in economic activity, which may require additional stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan. Recently, the head of the Bank of Japan noted that the regulator will continue to monitor the situation and is ready to maintain a soft policy to prevent further slowdown in economic growth.Resistance levels: 164.00, 164.80.Support levels: 162.50, 161.90.GBP/NZD: pound is declining, waiting for further signals from the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/NZD pair is trading at 2.0495 as of October 14, showing a steady downward trend with a decrease of 0.23% from the previous session. The market is influenced by the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar, supported by New Zealand's domestic economic data, and expectations for easing UK monetary policy.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The published data showed an increase in unemployment to 4.2%, which is slightly higher than market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) remained at 6.7% in September, signaling continued pressure on inflation, which may require adjustments in the Bank of England's policy. However, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further interest rate increases will depend on the data, and expressed caution about accelerating the tightening policy against the backdrop of an unstable economy. In turn, the indicator of business activity in the service sector (PMI) amounted to 49.3 points, which is lower than the level of the previous month (50.2 points), indicating a decrease in activity in the sector.In New Zealand, the index of business activity in construction increased by 2.1%, which is higher than forecast. The increase in activity is due to increased demand in the infrastructure construction sector, as well as improved performance in the agro-industrial complex. The Central Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue to maintain a steady interest rate as the country's inflation rate fell to 4.9% in annual terms. Against the background of these indicators, the position of the New Zealand dollar remains strong, which puts pressure on the GBP/NZD pair.Resistance levels: 2.0550, 2.0600.Support levels: 2.0450, 2.0400.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading near the $23.40 level as of October 14, showing an upward trend of 0.42% above the previous session. Against the background of recent economic events, this growth reflects investors' interest in defensive assets, as financial markets are increasingly responding to macroeconomic uncertainty and currency market volatility.Economic and political factors affecting silver include significant support from growing industrial demand. An important driver is the development of green technologies and solar energy, which actively use silver in the production of panels and other components. According to experts, the demand for silver in these sectors has reached 1.2 billion ounces and is projected to continue to grow. In addition, the political situation in the United States and the ongoing discussion of changes in Federal Reserve interest rates have an impact on the dollar. In anticipation of a rate cut by the end of the year, investors view silver as a profitable hedge against inflationary risks and a possible weakening of the dollar.In the global perspective, the silver market is also influenced by other factors, including uncertainty in the mining sector. Leading producers such as Mexico and Peru are reporting lower production, which limits supply in the market. According to Citigroup estimates, under current conditions, silver prices could reach $30 per ounce in the second half of 2024. In addition, investors who pay attention to the ratio of gold and silver see potential for growth, as silver remains relatively undervalued compared to gold. In the coming months, it is expected that with an increase in demand for industrial silver and an improvement in market sentiment, silver will be able to approach the level of $30 per ounce.Resistance levels: $24.10, $25.00.Support levels: $22.80, $21.50.Coffee market analysisCoffee prices on October 14, 2024 stabilized around $ 182.40 per pound, which is 0.52% higher than the previous day. This growth is explained by global economic factors associated with a reduction in the supply of coffee on the world market. The main catalyst for the dynamics of coffee prices is a reduction in yields in key producing countries such as Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. In addition, logistical problems and rising transportation costs add pressure to prices.In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, harvest expectations remain below average due to the dry weather in September. According to the latest data, the arabica harvest for 2024 is expected to reach 52 million bags, which is 5% lower than the previous forecast. Moreover, prices for fertilizers and logistics have increased significantly, which further increases the cost of production. Against this background, the Central Bank of Brazil makes comments on inflationary pressures related to agriculture. Interest rates are expected to remain high until the end of the year, which will limit manufacturers' access to loans to expand their capacities.In the global economy, the impact of geopolitical events also has an impact on demand for commodities, including coffee. Increased political instability in the Middle East and trade disputes between China and the United States are contributing to increased uncertainty in financial markets, which affects the demand for coffee in importing countries such as the United States and European Union countries. Nevertheless, demand from China remains stable, as the popularity of coffee drinks among Chinese consumers continues to grow.Resistance levels: 185.00, 187.50.Support levels: 180.00, ...

EUR/CAD: the rate cut in Canada strengthened the position of the euroAs of August 22, 2024, the EUR/CAD currency pair is showing a steady upward trend, continuing to strengthen against the background of a weakening Canadian dollar and a moderately positive economic situation in the eurozone. The pair is trading around 1.5130 CAD, reflecting the strengthening of the euro against the background of the weakening of the Canadian currency.The economic situation in the eurozone looks stable, despite the continuing inflation risks. Recent data show that inflation in the euro area fell to 2.4% in March 2024, but core inflation remains at about 4%, which creates some pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) in terms of maintaining tight monetary policy. At the same time, economic activity in the service sector is showing signs of recovery, in contrast to manufacturing, which continues to stagnate. Economic growth in the eurozone is expected to resume at a moderate pace in the coming months.The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, linked to attempts to stimulate a slowing economy, has led to a weakening of the currency. Inflation expectations in Canada remain relatively stable, but slower growth and lower commodity prices, especially oil, have a negative impact on the currency. Technical analysis also indicates the predominance of bearish sentiment in the EUR/CAD pair, which is confirmed by oversold signals and the intersection of key resistance levels.Resistance levels: 1.5150, 1.5260.Support levels: 1.5070, 1.5000.AUD/CHF: Franc strengthening amid uncertainty in AustraliaAs of August 22, 2024, the AUD/CHF currency pair shows a weakening of the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc, trading around 0.5900 CHF. The pair is under pressure amid economic uncertainty in Australia and the strengthening of the Swiss franc.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.35% at the last meeting, but risks of further rate hikes remain due to high inflation expectations. Despite a slight decrease in the quarterly inflation rate, the data did not meet market expectations, which increased pressure on AUD. The publication of business activity indices (PMI) also indicated a continued decline in activity in the manufacturing sector, which negatively affected the Australian dollar.The Swiss franc, on the contrary, remains stable due to the cautious monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The expected change of the head of the bank probably will not lead to significant policy changes, which supports investors' confidence in the stability of the franc. Additionally, the Swiss franc continues to win as a safe haven currency amid global economic uncertainty, which also supports its strengthening.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5850, 0.5800.GBP/NZD: the Bank of England's rate cut has increased pressure on the poundAs of Thursday, August 22, the GBP/NZD currency pair is trading around 2.0629 NZD, which is 0.03% lower compared to the previous trading session. The pair is showing a slight decline amid growing concerns about the prospects for the UK economy and the stabilization of the situation in New Zealand.The economic situation in the UK remains tense. At a recent meeting, the Bank of England decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, which was a response to a slowdown in growth and a decrease in inflation, which, according to the latest data, amounted to 5.31% year-on-year in August. Despite this, the market expects further rate cuts, which may weaken the pound's position in the coming months. The decline in business activity, especially in the manufacturing sector, is also putting pressure on the GBP.New Zealand, on the contrary, demonstrates resilience due to a stable economic situation and moderate inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the key rate unchanged at 5.5%, which supports the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar. Economic activity in the country remains stable despite global economic challenges. Moderate inflation and stable monetary policy of RBNZ support the New Zealand dollar, which allows it to strengthen its position against the British pound.Resistance levels: 2.0660, 2.0720.Support levels: 2.0580, 2.0520.Coffee market analysisAs of August 22, the price of coffee is showing steady growth against the background of global supply constraints and increasing demand, especially in Asian countries. At the moment, the price of coffee is trading around $2.15 per pound, which is 1.8% higher compared to the previous trading session. This growth is driven by a number of factors, including adverse weather conditions in key producing countries and the growing popularity of coffee in developing Asia.The economic situation in Brazil and Colombia, the two largest coffee producers, continues to have an impact on the market. In Brazil, drought and the spread of diseases such as coffee rust have reduced yields, resulting in a 5% decrease in supply compared to last year. In Colombia, political instability and economic difficulties have also led to a reduction in production, which puts pressure on world prices. These factors create tension in the market, which pushes prices up.At the same time, the growing demand for coffee in Asia, especially in countries such as China, India and Japan, continues to support high prices. Urbanization and the growth of the middle class are contributing to an increase in coffee consumption in the region. In China, the coffee market continues to grow at double-digit rates, and the number of cafes has increased by 58% over the past year, making it the largest market in terms of the number of points of sale in the world.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.25.Support levels: $2.10, ...

EUR/AUD: economic concerns in Australia and Germany affect the pairThe EUR/AUD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.6840 and updating the lows of recent days.Despite attempts by the euro to strengthen, macroeconomic data did not provide sufficient support. In June, German industrial production fell by 1.5% compared to the previous month, which was unexpected for analysts who had expected an increase of 0.5%. At the same time, inflation in the Eurozone remains at a high level, which increases pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further tighten monetary policy.On the other hand, Australia's macroeconomic indicators also raise concerns. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the interest rate at 4.10%, which was expected by the market. However, economic activity in the country is showing signs of slowing down, especially in the construction sector, where the business activity index fell to 47.9 points, indicating a reduction in activity. This creates additional challenges for the Australian economy, despite high commodity prices, which traditionally support AUD.Resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.7000.Support levels: 1.6750, 1.6600.GBP/NZD: UK unemployment rate rises to 4.3%The GBP/NZD pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 2.1189 and updating recent lows.Despite attempts by the pound to strengthen, macroeconomic data did not provide sufficient support. In the UK, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% last month, which caused concern among investors. Inflation in the country remains high, which puts additional pressure on the Bank of England in terms of tightening monetary policy. In turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the interest rate at 5.5%, which was expected by the market, but this did not lead to a significant strengthening of the New Zealand dollar.Analysts predict that in the coming weeks, the GBP/NZD pair will trade in the range of 2.1000-2.1300. Despite the weak macroeconomic data, the pound may receive support in the event of an improvement in economic conditions in the UK or an increase in negative economic data in New Zealand. Investors are also closely monitoring the actions of central banks, which may significantly affect the further dynamics of the currency pair.Resistance levels: 2.1300, 2.1450.Support levels: 2.1000, 2.0850.Palladium market analysisPalladium is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at $925.15 per ounce as of August 8, 2024.Despite steady demand from the automotive sector, the global palladium market continues to experience significant fluctuations in 2024. In the first half of the year, palladium prices reached an annual low of $859.15 per ounce in February, but then recovered to $963.50 at the end of June. In July, the price declined again, reaching $881.00, due to the high level of volatility and instability in the global economy. The demand for palladium in the automotive industry remains a key factor influencing the price of the metal. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, demand in the automotive sector will remain stable at 8.45 million ounces in 2024. At the same time, the total supply of palladium, including extraction and processing, will be about 10.03 million ounces, which leads to relative stability in the market.Analysts predict that palladium prices may fluctuate in the range of $900-$1,000 per ounce in the coming months. It is expected that an increase in supply due to recycling and stable demand from the automotive industry will support the market. Nevertheless, possible changes in the global economy and geopolitical instability may continue to affect the price of palladium.Resistance levels: 950, 1000.Support levels: 900, 880.Coffee market analysisThe coffee market on the commodity exchange shows interesting dynamics on August 8, 2024. The coffee trade remains active despite a number of economic and political factors influencing the quotes.Despite the increase in global demand for coffee, quotes continue to experience volatility. First of all, this is due to a change in consumer preferences and the growing popularity of specialty coffees. The European market accounts for a significant share of global coffee consumption, especially in countries such as Germany, France and Italy. The demand for high-quality coffee and specialty varieties continues to grow, which supports prices in the market. According to the latest data, the global coffee market is estimated at US$161.66 billion and is expected to grow to US$ 207.07 billion by 2032. The growth of the market is supported by an increase in the number of coffee shops and cafes, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where the influence of Western culture is increasing and the young population is actively adopting new consumption trends.Political instability in some coffee-producing countries, such as Brazil and Colombia, also affects supply and, consequently, prices. For example, policy changes, the introduction of trade barriers and currency fluctuations can significantly affect exports and domestic coffee prices. Analysts predict that coffee prices may fluctuate in the coming months depending on weather conditions in the growing regions, political stability in the producing countries and global economic trends. It is expected that the growth in demand for organic and specialty coffee will continue, which will support the market in the long term.Resistance levels: 950, 1000.Support levels: 900, ...

EUR/AUD: expectations of ECB policy tightening support the euroThe EUR/AUD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.65715 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in the Eurozone remains difficult. German GDP declined in the second quarter, which negatively affected the economic prospects of the region. At the same time, inflation in the Eurozone reached 2.6% in July, which is higher than analysts' expectations and may lead to a tightening of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. This creates mixed conditions for the euro, which is supported by expectations of a rate hike, but suffers from weak economic growth in key countries in the region.In Australia, the latest inflation data exceeded forecasts, which may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to reconsider its plans to lower interest rates and possibly even consider raising rates. At the same time, economic indicators such as employment and retail sales remain under pressure, which creates favorable conditions for the strengthening of the euro against the Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.6700, 1.6800.Support levels: 1.6500, 1.6400.GBP/NZD: economic difficulties affect the pair's exchange rateThe GBP/NZD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 2.13805 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in the UK is showing signs of weakness. The Bank of England recently decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, which is the first reduction in the last four years. This decision is due to a slowdown in GDP growth and weak inflation, which puts pressure on the British pound. On the other hand, New Zealand is also experiencing economic difficulties, including declining retail sales and high unemployment, which negatively affects the New Zealand dollar.Political and economic uncertainty in both countries continues to affect the volatility of the pair. In the UK, problems related to Brexit and general political instability remain, while in New Zealand, economic data remains weak. Nevertheless, analysts predict a possible strengthening of the GBP/NZD pair to the level of 2.229 by the end of August 2024, provided that economic indicators in the UK improve.Resistance levels: 2.1600, 2.2000.Support levels: 2.1200, 2.1000.USD/CHF: stable growth of the franc against the background of lower inflation in the United StatesThe USD/CHF pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 0.9000 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in the United States remains mixed. The latest inflation data showed a slight decrease, which reduced the likelihood of further tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This puts pressure on the dollar, which remains influenced by expectations of lower interest rates. In Switzerland, on the contrary, stable economic growth remains, and the Swiss National Bank adheres to the policy of a strong franc, which supports the CHF exchange rate at a high level.Political and economic instability on a global scale continues to have an impact on foreign exchange markets. Investors continue to look for safe assets such as the Swiss franc amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Analysts predict that in the near future, the USD/CHF pair may fluctuate in the range of 0.8950-0.9050, with a possible move to the level of 0.8800 with the strengthening of the franc's position.Resistance levels: 0.9040, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8950, 0.8900.Silver market overviewSilver is correcting after a volatile start to the month, trading at $28.70 per ounce and updating the lows of recent weeks.Despite steady demand from investors, global economic data remains mixed. In the second quarter of 2024, weak Chinese GDP data caused a rate cut by the People's Bank of China, which put temporary pressure on the silver market. In the United States, there is a decrease in inflation, which reduces the likelihood of further tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. It also puts pressure on the dollar, supporting silver prices.Political events such as the third plenary session of China have attracted the attention of the market. The meeting confirmed China's commitment to support industrial production, which should have a positive impact on silver demand in the short and medium term. However, the lack of specific measures to stimulate domestic consumption leaves a number of unanswered questions.Analysts predict that silver prices may fluctuate in the range of $28.00-$31.00 in the coming months, with a possible increase to $34.70 by the end of 2024. JP Morgan expects silver to break the $30 per ounce mark by the end of the year, supported by lower interest rates and a weakening dollar.Resistance levels: $30.00, $31.00.Support levels: $28.00, ...

In terms of activity, the Pound Sterling currency pair against the New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) is one of the most volatile crosses with GBP, which is what many investors use, but the pair is still considered quite exotic.The British pound vs New Zealand dollar cross-pair is a financial instrument in which Sterling Pounds purchased for New Zealand Dollars are the main currency, but despite this, the analysis should take into account that the purchase of one currency for another does not go directly, but still through conversion into US dollars.On most charts, the pair's quote is displayed with an accuracy of up to 4 digits after the separator (1,7365), but some may display up to 5 characters (1,73650).Today, the most active day over the last 10 weeks of observations, in terms of trading on GBP/NZD, is Wednesday, and the least volatile days are Friday and Tuesday, not Monday, as for most other pairs. The course of the price on normal days is approximately 180-250 points per day, which is a fairly high indicator in comparison with most of the most popular pairs.If we take statistics on intraday trading sessions, then it moves most actively to the European (London) from 07:00 to 16 UTC (especially active from 07:00 to 09:00 UTC at the overlap of the European and Asian trading periods).Previously, due to the large difference in interest rates of Banks in New Zealand and England, as well as the predominant fall of the pair in the long term, carry trading (on bearish trends) was very popular for GBP NZD. It is still possible now, but the profitability of this strategy has decreased significantly in recent years.To make a long-term forecast for this pair at the moment is generally a very thankless task, due to the great unpredictability of price movements not only of these two currencies in one pair, but even each of them separately in relation to the US dollar (GBP/USD and NZD/USD). To determine the dynamics of the exchange rate for a shorter period of time, you can resort to technical analysis using a standard set of indicators.Read more: GBP/AUD: features, characteristics, signals, analysis & trading forecastsWhat affects GBPNZD quotesDespite the fact that New Zealand is only a small island state in the Pacific Ocean southeast of Australia, it has a fairly developed economy and a high standard of living. Such a strong Europeanization is due to the fact that the country has been an English colony for a long time, but by now the difference in the economic and political structure of the states has significant differences.Today, the structure of the New Zealand economy by sector is as follows:In the first place is the sphere of trade and services with 71% of GDP (banking, hotel, tourism, restaurant);Then the industry with a share of 24.3% (mining, energy, food);In the last place, as in most other highly developed countries, there is agriculture, which here, nevertheless, accounts for a fairly significant 4.7% of GDP (dairy and meat livestock, wool production).A good climate, the beauty of pristine nature and a calm socio-political situation attract many tourists from all over the world to New Zealand and every year their flow to the country only increases.The English economy is one of the most developed in Europe along with the German and French.The main share of the country's GDP is accounted for by services, trade and construction, but industry also plays an important role. Agriculture accounts for only about 1% of the state's GDP. Oil and gas production has been active on the North Sea shelf since the 70s. As for New Zealand, tourism plays an important role for the United Kingdom.Read more: GBP/CHF: online signals, forecasts for today, analysis & featuresThus, performing the analysis, the GBP NZD pairs first of all need to pay attention to:economic indicators of both countries (labor market, business activity, GDP inflation, etc.);trade balances of both countries;economic indicators of the USA and the European Union;US dollar exchange rate;Central Bank rates (England and New Zealand);oil prices and (to a lesser extent) gold;prices of livestock products (relevant for New Zealand);economic indicators of Australia.Correlation with charts of other instruments is not the last factor to be taken into account when compiling analytics for this pair. The Pound-New Zealander has the greatest correspondence on the daily timeframe with other cross-pairs, which include the British currency: GBP/NOK – 92.3%, GBP/AUD – 85.4%, GBP/JPY – 80.6%, USD/HUF – 80.2%, USD/JPY – 79.1%.The inverse correlation is observed with:NZD/USD – -81.3%, NZD/CHF – -78.9%, AUD/USD – -78%, EUR/TRY – -75.4%, Platinum – -75.3%, AUD/SGD – -74.3%, EUR/USD – -73.9%, XAU/USD – -73.6%, USD/TRY – -71.4% Palladium – -71.4%.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayFeatures of the currency pairDue to the significant difference in the amount of interest rates (0.25% for the UK and 1.75% for New Zealand), carry-trade is possible, but only when the currency pair is in a bearish trend, since in this case pounds are bought for New Zealand dollars, and not vice versa. At the moment, the software swap when buying is minus 15.17, and in case of sale – plus 3.23 points.Despite the significant size of spreads, due to the frequent change in the direction of the pair's movement within the day (up to 5 times or more) and impressive volatility, providing up to 250 or even 350 points per day on some days, the pair is suitable for short-term intraday trading. It is not always possible to call it scalping, because sometimes, in order to recoup the spread and get enough profit, you have to keep open positions for several hours. In such cases, the main thing is not to forget about risk management, stop losses and the direction of the main trend, so as not to miss and not get a large loss not only directly from the transaction, but also in the form of a significant negative swap. The Pound is trading well/A New Zealander and on the news.Due to the low prevalence and complex analysis, this pair is recommended only to experienced participants of financial markets who are well aware of the specifics of the currencies included in it and have enough funds on their deposit in case of ...