Hang Seng Trading forecasts and signals

Today we want to look at predictions from a slightly different angle - who should we trust when it comes to predictions of the future? Who was right in their predictions for 2022 and who was totally wrong? Let's find out!Traditionally, let's start with Wall Street.What did the investment houses forecast for 2022?By the end of 2021, the value of the S&P500 index reached 4,800 points. The investment houses said the markets would continue to rise.The investment banks' forecasts for the S&P 500 index for 2022 were as follows:The index ended up down 1,000 points for the year, a drop of more than 20 per cent.Only two banks were "toxic" pessimists: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.They did not guess the magnitude of the fall. But at least they pointed in a downward direction. Morgan Stanley was the closest to the truth out of all the investment houses.What is the outlook for banks in 2023?What is BANK OF AMERICA's forecast for 2023The main shock of 2023 is a recession. Bank of America strategists believe that for the US, the Eurozone and the UK a recession is "almost inevitable". The rest of the world, apart from China, will also weaken. In the US, the start of a "moderate recession" is expected in the first half of the year. However, as Bank of America writes, "there is a risk that it will start later". The bank strategists thus expect the first half of the year to be good for bond investments and the second half to be interesting for equities. However, this is as far as I understand, if the recession is not delayed, but starts in the first half of the year.With China it is different - it will wake up from covid hibernation. But very unevenly. Most restrictions will not be lifted until the second half of the year. Chinese equities are likely to strengthen.What about the S&P? Analysts at the bank expect it to end 2023 at 4,000. That is roughly where it is now...US rates are expected to fall by the end of 2023 - both two-year and ten-year treasuries should end the year at 3.25%. The industries which suffered from rising rates in 2022 could benefit in 2023.After a historically bad year for industrial metals in 2022, cyclical and long-term factors will lead to higher metals prices in 2023, with copper prices rising by around 20%!!!Oil, according to Bank of America estimates, will also remain high. Factors that will contribute to this: Russian sanctions (I wonder what they mean by "Russian sanctions" - sanctions against Russian oil or our retaliatory sanctions?), low oil reserves, China opening up and OPEC ready to cut production if demand weakens. The bottom line is that with all these factors, Brent crude will average $100/bbl during 2023 and rise to $110/bbl in the second half of the year.Long: 30-year Treasuries, Chinese stocks, gold and silver, bonds, US Small cap, European banks.Short: Dollar, US technology sector, private equity.What is MORGAN STANLEY's forecast for 2023So, the bank's strategists write: "The general consensus is that corporate profits will start to collapse in early 2023, followed by the stock market. But the economy has proved too resilient". So Morgan Stanley expects earnings to fall slowly - to spite the bears.In fact they repeat the forecast of Bank of America - they expect a delay in the start of the recession until the second half of the year.Attitudes towards mega-cap stocks are sceptical. Here's what they write: "At their peak in 2000, the 5 largest tech stocks accounted for 20% of the S&P500 index. These were Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Nokia, Intel and IBM. These same 5 stocks bottomed out 5 years later and already accounted for 5% of the index.At their peak in 2022, the top 5 companies accounted for 25% of the S&P500. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Tesla. But are they heading towards 5% of the index now?"Markets underestimate the risk of recession, stocks could fall another 22%.By the end of 2023, expect the S&P 500 to be at 3900 - even lower than its current value.Like Bank of America, predict a rise in Chinese equities. Expect global GDP growth to slow in 2023 as central banks tighten inflationary pressures. The exception is China, where the spring 2023 opening should lead to a significant recovery in economic activity in H2 2023.What did the Wall Street Gurus predict for 2022?Many of them said a correction in the stock market was inevitable. But there were those who were wrong.For example, Buffett's associate Charlie Munger was betting on Alibaba. Those who followed Munger were clearly wrong.Ray Dalio also bet on China. He also advised to get rid of cache. Wrong too, in fact.On the other hand, his reasoning was quite lengthy, which is hard to pin down. For example, he did advise buying inflation-linked bonds.Larry Williams is another prediction outsider. He is a famous trader with 60 years of trading experience. He created a technical indicator, Williams %R, which is used to estimate the overbought and oversold state of the market. A cobbler without boots - he could not estimate the overbought market.Said that "All markets will rise and be higher than at the beginning of the year, but gold doesn't stand a chance".Who predicted the 2022 market?Jim Rogers predicted the problems of 2022Jim Rogers is Soros' former hedge fund partner Quantum. What did Rogers say?He said - verbatim - "something bad is going to happen, but I'm not selling anything yet".Rogers warned that the US market had actually been rising since 2009. It is the longest growth in US history. But the market can't grow forever, which means there must be a rate hike and a downturn in 2022.Silver, though, has been falling in value for most of the year... That said, it's unclear exactly when Rogers was going to buy silver... Perhaps in this first half of the year's downturn.In addition to silver, Jim recommended investing in agriculture. What does he predict for 2023?Recession, debt crisis, US-European disputes due to energy shortages. Rogers also does not believe in price ceilings and embargoes and believes that Europe will still continue to buy oil and gas from Russia - just in a grey area.Mark Mobius is another soothsayer of the yearPredicted cryptocurrencies falling in 2022, increased tensions between the US and China and lower markets in general"Expect the market to decline and don't panic," he saidHe also said that India would become the new China.Mark Mobius - worked for over 30 years at Franklin Templeton Investments, specialising in emerging markets - including Russia. He was even an independent director of LUKOIL. In 2018, he founded his own company.What does he predict for the year 2023A word on crypto. Bitcoin, according to Mobius, could collapse 40% to $10,000 in 2023."With higher interest rates, the appeal of owning or buying bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies becomes less attractive because simply owning the coin does not generate interest," Mobius said."Of course, there have been a few offers with interest rates of 5% or higher for crypto deposits, but many of these companies offering such rates have gone bankrupt in part because of FTX. As these losses grow, people are wary of holding cryptocurrency for the sake of interest."He is also an advocate of investing in India. He believes it is the Indian equity market that is most interesting in 2023.Who else has guessed?Saxo Bank with their crazy forecasts have hit the bullseye this year. Much of their shocking predictions have come true. They predicted a weakening of the ESG agenda, a drop in Facebook and other mammoth quotes, high inflation, weakening of ties between China and the US, and a new Cold War.We already talked about what they predicted for 2023 in one of the videos.The Rothschilds also got it right with their magazine The Economist. Remember the weird cover showing bitcoin and other assets falling down the rabbit hole. Now let's take a closer look at their ...

The session on July 14, the main American stock exchanges ended in different directions. The S&P 500 lost 0.30%, closing at 3,790 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.03% and the Dow Jones adjusted 0.46%. Nine of the 11 sectors included in the S&P 500 closed in the red. IT companies (+0.93%) and manufacturers of non-cyclical consumer goods (+0.16%) were able to stay in positive territory.Company newsMorgan Stanley (MS: -0.39%) presented results for the second quarter of 2022 worse than the consensus forecast. EPS decreased by 24.8% YoY to $1.39, falling short of market-wide expectations at $1.56.EPS and net revenue of JPMorgan Chase & Co. investment bank (JPM: -3.49%) in the second quarter were also weaker than analysts' preliminary estimates. Earnings per share decreased by 26.9% YoY, while net revenue increased by only 0.7% YoY, to $30.72 billion.We expectThe focus of investors' attention is information about the rate of price growth in June. After the publication on Wednesday of consumer inflation data, which accelerated to the highest 9.1% YoY since November 1981, production inflation statistics were released on Thursday. The producer price index increased by 11.3% YoY, slightly below the record 11.6% in March. Almost 90% of the increase was due to higher energy costs of final demand, as prices for oil, natural gas and other energy carriers rose sharply during the month. Excluding the dynamics of the cost of volatile components and trading services, the core consumer price index in June increased by 6.4% YoY, which is less than the May growth of 6.8%.In addition, according to the report of the Ministry of Labor, there are signs of weakening employment indicators. From July 3 to July 9, the number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits increased to 244 thousand, which is the highest figure since November 2021. This indicates some cooling in the labor market amid rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions.The yield of two-year treasuries decreased by 1 bps, to 3.12%. The indicator for 10-year securities, on the contrary, increased by 5 bps, to 2.96%. In our opinion, as long as there are no signs of a stable decline in inflation in the United States, the yield of "ten-year-olds" will rise to 3.5%.Trading on July 14 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. China's CSI 300 lost 1.70%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 2.39%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 adjusted 0.62%.Brent crude futures are quoted at $99 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,704 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3700-3820 points.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped one point to 27.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 has adjusted by 19.7% from the current year's highs and continues to move downwards within the "bearish" trend. The RSI indicator is held in the neutral zone for the third week in a row, the MACD also indicates the preservation of short-term parity of sellers and buyers. Perhaps, on the eve of the reporting season and the July Fed meeting, we will observe consolidation on stock exchanges. The main triggers of the market movement will be the financial results of corporations. The nearest support for the S&P 500 is located at 3,600 points. A rebound to 4000 will be perceived by bidders as an opportunity to close short ...

The session on July 8, the main American stock exchanges ended in different directions. The S&P 500 dropped by 0.08% to 3,899 points, the Dow Jones adjusted by 0.15% and only the Nasdaq rose by 0.12%. Nine of the 11 sectors included in the broad market index closed in the red. Only representatives of healthcare (+0.3%) and the IT industry (+0.1%) remained in the green zone.Company newsElon Musk refused a deal to buy Twitter (TWTR: -5.1%). The billionaire claims that the social network provided false user data and the number of spam bots in it is significantly more than officially stated. Twitter intends to force Elon Musk to complete the acquisition of the company for $ 44 billion through the court.We expectOn July 8, Fitch downgraded Turkey's rating from B+ to B. The rating change is due to the achievement of inflation in the country at a maximum of 78.2% in 24 years, as well as general concerns about the state of the country's economy. Moody's, in turn, lowered the rating of Mexico by one notch, to Baa2, due to negative assessments of the prospects of the economy and the financial condition of the country. Thus, it is placed two steps above the "junk" rating, on the same level with the corresponding assessments of Uruguay and the Philippines, and now coincides with the sovereign rating from S&P Global at the BBB level. The reduction of the sovereign credit ratings of Mexico and Turkey by leading agencies may entail similar actions against other states.The yield of two—year and ten-year treasuries at the end of trading last week increased by 34 bps and 7 bps - to 3.12% and 3.1%, respectively. Until there are clear signs of a slowdown in inflation in the US, we consider the most likely movement of the yield of the "ten-year" to 3.5%.Trading on July 11 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. China's CSI 300 lost 1.67%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.77%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.14%.Brent crude futures are quoted at $107 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,740 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3850-3920 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are scheduled to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remained unchanged.Technical pictureThe closest support for the S&P 500 remains the range of 3600-3660 points. The RSI and MACD indicators do not give certain signals for a trend reversal, but we do not rule out a rebound to 4000.In sightPepsiCo will publish its second quarter reports on July 12. So far, the corporation has remained profitable, despite the rising costs of labor, transportation and raw materials. The record acceleration in inflation over the past few months calls into question PepsiCo's ability to continue to cope with rising costs and continue to generate profits. Analysts' consensus puts PepsiCo's revenue for the second quarter at $19.49 billion with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.74, which means growth of 1.4% and 1.16% YoY, respectively.The largest US bank by assets, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), will report for the second quarter of the current calendar year on July 14. The FactSet consensus assumes an increase in the bank's net revenue by 4.3% YoY, to $31.82 billion. At the same time, due to the increase in reserves and investments, EPS is projected to decrease by 21.7% YoY, to $2.96. JPM's net interest income may exceed last year's result by 16% due to an increase in consumer lending volumes. Taking into account the accelerated increase in interest rates and an increase in lending volumes, JPM raised its forecast of net interest income by the end of 2022 from $53 billion to more than $56 billion, which implies an increase of 8% YoY. Pressure on revenue will be exerted by cooling demand for mortgage and car loans. According to the results of the reporting quarter, investment banking revenues are expected to fall by 44% YoY due to low activity in the IPO market. The revenue of the trading direction may increase by 15-20% due to increased market volatility. Note that due to the tightening of capital adequacy requirements following the results of the Fed stress test, JPM retained its quarterly dividend at $1.00 per share, which implies a yield of 3.28% per ...

The session on July 7, the main American stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 3,903 points, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose 2.28% and 1.12%, respectively. Ten of the 11 sectors included in the broad market index closed in positive territory. In a small minus (-0.1%), only representatives of the utility industry completed the day. The leaders of growth were energy (+3.5%) and consumer sector companies (+2.5%).Company newsElon Musk's plans to become the owner of Twitter (TWTR: +1.52%) are in jeopardy, as the potential buyer's side came to the conclusion that it was impossible to check spam accounts in the social network.GameStop Corp. (GME: +15.06%) fired CFO Mike Recupero. In addition, the company is optimizing its staff to support business development in the face of changing requirements for games and unfavorable market conditions in general.The head of the US Secret Service will become one of the top managers in the security service of Snap Inc. (SNAP: +5.74%)We expectThe number of closed vacancies in the United States in June was the lowest in the last 14 months, but unemployment remains near pre-pandemic lows. This indicates tension in the labor market and serves as an additional argument for the Fed to raise the rate again by 75 bps at the July meeting. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week increased by 4 thousand, to 235 thousand, reaching the highest since the first week of January, although the consensus did not suggest changes. The focus of attention of bidders today will be the report on the labor market for June. The forecast assumes the appearance of 278 thousand. new jobs outside agriculture after 390 thousand, recorded in May. If these expectations are met, the indicator will be at its lowest since April 2021. The average hourly wage, which is considered as an indicator of inflation, is projected to grow by 0.3% mom.The inversion between the yield of ten- and two-year treasuries remains. The indicator of "ten-year-olds" on the eve was 2.98%, and that of "two-year-olds" was 3.01%.Trading on July 8 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in different directions. China's CSI 300 lost 0.33%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.18%, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.10%.Brent crude futures are quoted at $104 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,734 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3850-3900 points.MacrostatisticsA report on the US labor market for June will be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remained unchanged.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 has been rising for the fourth day in a row. The closest support for it remains the range of 3600-3660 points. The RSI and MACD indicators do not give certain signals for a trend reversal, but we do not rule out a rebound to ...

The US indices ended the session on July 6 in a slight plus. The S&P 500 gained 0.36%, closing at 3,845 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.35%, the Dow Jones rose 0.23%. Utility service providers (+1.01%) and healthcare sector companies (+0.88%) showed active growth. Energy companies looked worse than the market (-1.74%) against the background of a correction in oil quotes.Company newsRivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN: +10.42%) increased the production of electric vehicles by 72% QoQ, deliveries more than tripled. The company also stated that it is actively moving towards the previously stated goal of producing 25 thousand electric cars per year.GameStop (GME: -2.33%) plans to split equity securities in a 4:1 ratio on July 18, holders will receive dividends in the form of three additional shares.Israeli defense technology company Rada Electronics Industries (RADA: -14.16%) expects a 20.9% YoY decrease in revenue for the second quarter. This is almost a third lower than the consensus forecast and is due to a reduction in orders from the United States.We expectThe minutes of the June FOMC meeting again did not surprise investors. Fed officials remain "hawkish" in view of the need to reduce inflation expectations. The main scenario is an increase in the discount rate by 50 or 75 basis points in July. The final decision will depend on the dynamics of wages in the country and the value of the consumer price index for June. Wage growth may slow to 5.1% YoY, but inflation is expected to accelerate to 8.7% due to a jump in energy prices.The US labor market remains tense, which so far prevents a more significant slowdown in wage growth. Although representatives of large and medium-sized businesses are reducing hiring plans, the demand for labor in the United States is still almost twice the number of applicants, despite tightening financial conditions, and the level of layoffs remains at record lows. This serves as an additional argument for the Fed in favor of continuing the normalization of the PREP and the possible implementation of the "soft landing" scenario of the economy.It is noteworthy that inflation expectations embedded in the rate of break-even 5-year TIPS bonds decreased to 2.48%, returning to the level of October 2021, which, however, is largely due to investors' opinion that economic activity will slow down. The possibility of implementing such a scenario is confirmed by the shrinking spread between the yields of 10-year and 3-month bonds. This is traditionally one of the signals of a deterioration in the prospects for economic growth.The Asia-Pacific stock exchanges closed the trading session on July 7 in the green zone. Japan's Nikkei rose by 1.47%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.26%, China's CSI 300 rose by 0.44%. EuroStoxx 50 has been rising by 1.05% since the opening of trading.Brent crude futures are trading at $101 per barrel. The price of gold is $1,734 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3790-3870 points.MacrostatisticsThe US trade balance data for May will be published today. The deficit is expected to decrease by 2.5% mom, to $84.8 billion.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remains at 29 points.Technical pictureDespite attempts to start a rebound, the S&P 500 continues to move within the downtrend. The RSI is held near the neutral zone, the MACD indicates the preservation of the dominant positions of the "bears". The nearest resistance is at the psychologically significant level of 3900 points. The closest support is still the level of 3660 points.In sightToday, after the closing of the main session, Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) will present the financial statements for the second fiscal quarter. The consensus assumes an increase in the clothing manufacturer's revenue by 12.3% QoQ, to $1,433, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.23, which is comparable to last year's result. Sales and inventories of the company's products, despite a gradual decline in consumer confidence, remain quite stable in nominal terms in difficult economic conditions. Recently, Bank of America named LEVI one of the best investments for the second half of the year among small and medium-cap companies. Levi Strauss & Co. recently unveiled its long-term strategic priorities and presented updated growth goals. For fiscal year 2022, the company forecasts revenue growth of 11-13% YoY, to $6.4–6.5 billion, with adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.50–1.56.Also today, the manufacturer of household chemicals and car maintenance products WD-40 Company (WDFC) will present quarterly reports. Consensus predicts the company's revenue growth by 4.7% QoQ, to $142 million, with a decrease in adjusted earnings per share by 15% YoY, to $1.3. Analysts have worsened forecasts after the update by the management of Hayden's for the current year due to unfavorable conditions in commodity prices and the strengthening of the US dollar. WDFC shares have been under pressure since February last year. At the same time, in parallel with the publication of the previous report, the company presented a long-term plan, which provides for an increase in revenue to $650-700 million with an average annual growth in the range of 5-11%, depending on the region of ...

The session on July 5, American stock exchanges ended mainly in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 0.16% to 3,831 points, the Nasdaq gained 1.75%, and only the Dow Jones declined 0.42%. Technology sector companies (+1.24%), telecoms (+2.67%) and manufacturers of non-cyclical consumer goods (+2.28%) became the leaders of growth. Energy companies were outsiders (-4.01%).Company newsAmazon.com , Inc (AMZN: +3.60%) expands delivery service in the UK. A fleet of electric bicycles has been created in the country, and walking delivery services are also provided.According to Bloomberg, The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD: -2.99%) is exploring a takeover of Cowen Inc (COWN: +28.66%).Walmart Inc (WMT: +1.32%) plans to charge some of its suppliers new charges for the delivery of goods to warehouses due to increased fuel and transportation costs.We expectInvestors continue to track the moment of peak inflation. The fall in oil and other commodities due to fears of a recession during yesterday's trading may have been perceived by market participants as a signal for a slowdown in price growth. Together with the decline in government bond yields, this caused an active demand for shares of high-tech companies.The US and China held talks after the possibility announced by the White House to cancel some trade fees on Chinese goods. The reduction or cancellation of duties on imports from China can slow down the growth of prices for consumer goods in the United States. However, the topic of the probability of a recession may become more relevant at the upcoming auctions. If this factor becomes the focus of attention of market participants, further growth of risky assets will be limited. The latest Bloomberg Economics forecast estimates the probability of a recession in the US next year at 38%. Another significant signal of the coming economic downturn was the formation of a negative spread between the yields of ten- and two-year Treasury bonds for the third time since the beginning of the year.The yield of ten-year treasuries on the eve fell by 8 bps, to 2.81%, two-year - decreased by 2 bps, to 2.82%. The indicator for 30-year government bonds reached 3.03%.Trading on July 6 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.20%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.22%, and China's CSI 300 dropped 1.46%. At the same time, EuroStoxx 50 has been adding 1.96% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $102.77 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,761.8 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3800-3850 points.MacrostatisticsToday, data on the number of open vacancies in the United States for May will be released (consensus: 11.0 million, previous value: 11.4 million).Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped two points to 29.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 continues to move within the downtrend. The RSI is in the neutral zone. MACD does not give certain signals to change the current dynamics. The transition of the broad market index to consolidation in a narrow corridor is possible. The nearest support is located in the range of 3600-3660 ...

Auctions on American sites were not held this Monday in connection with the celebration of Independence Day. Last Friday, July 1, the S&P 500 ended the session at 3,825 points, adding 1.06%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose 0.9% and 1.05%, respectively. All 11 sectors included in the S&P 500 closed in positive territory. Utilities segment companies have become the leaders of growth (+2.48%). Representatives of the IT industry looked somewhat worse than the market (+0.25%).Company newsIn a report to the SEC, General Motors (GM: +1.4%) notes that its sales remain under pressure due to a shortage of chips. The concern estimated the number of vehicles understaffed with electronics, the deliveries of which will be carried out by the end of this year, at 95 thousand. GM's net profit for the second quarter is projected to be in the range of $1.6–1.9 billion.Kohl's Corporation management (KSS: -19.6%) refused to negotiate the sale of the retailer Franchise Group Inc. In addition, the company lowered its revenue forecast for the second quarter.We expectAccording to Bloomberg, the White House this week may announce the abolition of import tariffs on some Chinese consumer goods. Earlier, the Financial Times reported on disagreements in the Biden administration over tariffs on Chinese imports. The lack of a unified position on this issue may affect the results of the midterm congressional elections to be held in November. Finance and Trade Ministers Janet Yellen and Gina Raimondo are in favor of the abolition of tariffs, while Catherine Tai, the chief trade adviser to the House of Representatives of Congress, is against, who believes that this step will weaken the leverage in further trade negotiations with China. Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan has not yet decided on an opinion on this issue. Former US Ambassador David Adelman previously argued that the abolition of tariffs on goods from China could eventually reduce inflation in the US by 1%, and this would have a positive impact on the economy.Trading on July 5 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in different directions. China's CSI 300 declined by 0.14%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 0.1%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 1.03%. EuroStoxx50 has been losing 0.36% since the start of trading.Brent crude futures are quoted at $113.7 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1803 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3760-3840 points.MacrostatisticsToday, the final data on the dynamics of orders for durable goods for May (forecast: +0.5%, prev.: +0.7%), as well as on production orders (forecast: +0.5%, prev.: +0.3%) will be published.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose 3 points to 31.Technical pictureLast week, the S&P 500's attempts to move to growth encountered resistance at the level of the 20-day moving average. The MACD gives uncertain signals for a reversal, while the RSI is in the neutral zone. The nearest support for the broad market index is in the range of 3600-3660 points.In sightLevi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) will report for the second fiscal quarter on July 7 after the closing of the main session. The consensus assumes an increase in the clothing manufacturer's revenue by 12.3% QoQ, to $1,433, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.23, which is comparable to last year's result. Sales and inventories of the company's products, despite a gradual decline in consumer confidence in nominal terms, remain fairly stable in difficult economic conditions. Recently, Bank of America named LEVI one of the best investments for the second half of the year among small and medium-cap companies. Levi Strauss & Co. recently unveiled its long-term strategic priorities and presented updated growth goals. For fiscal year 2022, the company forecasts revenue growth of 11-13% YoY, to $6.4–6.5 billion, with adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.50–1.56.Also on Thursday, July 7, the manufacturer of household chemicals and car maintenance products WD-40 Company (WDFC) will present quarterly reports. Consensus predicts the company's revenue growth by 4.7% QoQ, to $142 million, with a decrease in adjusted earnings per share by 15% YoY, to $1.3. Analysts have worsened forecasts after the update by the management of Gaidens for the current year due to unfavorable conditions in commodity prices and the strengthening of the US dollar. WDFC shares have been under pressure since February last year. At the same time, in parallel with the publication of the previous report, the company presented a long-term plan, which provides for an increase in revenue to $650-700 million with an average annual growth in the range of 5-11%, depending on the region of ...

The market the day beforeThe session on June 30, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 lost 0.88%, closing at 3,785 points. Nasdaq and Dow Jones fell by 1.33% and 0.82%, respectively. Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended the day in negative territory. Real estate companies (+0.33%) and utilities (+1.10%), as well as representatives of industry (+0.28%) looked better than the market.Company newsMeta Platforms (META: -1.6%) reported a likely decrease in the growth rate of financial indicators in the second half of the year due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation and data privacy issues.Apple Inc (AAPL: -1.8%) has raised the cost of the iPhone in Japan by almost 20%, thereby trying to offset the effect of changes in the exchange rate and rising inflation in the country.We expectThe growth of consumer prices in the eurozone in June, according to Eurostat, accelerated from 8.1% to 8.6% with a consensus of 8.4%. This dynamic is mainly due to record levels of energy prices, although food and services are also noticeably more expensive. Thus, the cost of fuel rose by 41.9%, and the cost of food increased by 11.1%. Inflation excluding the prices of these two categories of goods accelerated from 4.4% in May to 4.6%, which is still more than twice the ECB's target of 2%. However, the indicator excluding alcohol and tobacco dropped by 3.7% from 3.8%. The European regulator continues to keep the key rate at a minimum, although other central banks launched monetary policy tightening programs a few months ago. The ECB plans to start a rate hike cycle in July (according to preliminary data, by 25 bps). At the same time, statistics for June, indicating a continued acceleration of inflation, serves as a reason to raise the rate by 50 bps in September.In Germany, an increase in the number of unemployed was recorded by 133 thousand, to 2.4 million, although analysts expected a decrease in this indicator by 5 thousand. In turn, in the United States, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended June 25 decreased by 2 thousand, to 231 thousand, with a consensus of 234 thousand. In our opinion, employment growth in the States has almost stopped, so in the coming weeks statistics will reflect the deterioration in this segment. However, unemployment remains low.The yield of two- and ten-year treasuries decreased by 14 and 12 bps - to 2.93% and 2.97%, respectively.Trading on July 1 at most sites in Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. China's CSI 300 lost 0.41%, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.73%, although Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained unchanged.Brent crude futures are quoted at $108 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,794 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3750-3800 points.MacrostatisticsThere are no plans to publish important statistics today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remained unchanged.Technical pictureSince the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has adjusted down by 26%, including 19% for the second quarter. This was one of the worst results in the history of this statistics. However, in the coming weeks, the market may begin to play rebalancing in stocks by portfolio managers. The nearest support for the broad market index is in the range of 3600-3660 ...