JPMorgan Chase Trading forecasts and signals

The market took the news without enthusiasm.The reporting season opened much better than expected: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs increased profits due to last year's reserves and the sale of investment services. The market reaction is a restrained surprise. What's in the reports JPMorgan showed revenue of $30.5 billion, with $30 billion expected on the market. Year-on-year, the decrease in the indicator was 10%. At Goldman Sachs, the figure was $15.4 billion, with an expected $12 billion (+15.7% compared to the same period in 2020).In terms of net income, JPMorgan diverged from consensus forecasts even more widely: $3.78 per share was accounted for against $3.16 included in the consensus. Growth by the second quarter of 2020 - by 174%. Goldman Sachs' EPS exceeded 15 (+140%), it was expected below $10.The high dynamics of profit is largely due to the release of reserves frozen by the Fed at the beginning of the pandemic. For example, JPMorgan has $0.75 per share, or about 20% of quarterly profit was accounted for by the added capital left from previous periods for bad debts.The key driver of revenue is asset management. Sales of services in this division increased by 37% and 28% for JPM and GS, respectively. The share of the investment component in the total revenue of Goldman Sachs was 24%. JPMorgan's assets exceeded $3 trillion, an increase of 21%. The dynamics is neutral for the rest of the business segments. What about the shares The reports were published before the start of the main session. In the premarket, JPMorgan's quotes, which had previously been neutral, moved to a decrease of 1%. At the moment, the price went below $157.6. On the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, the securities held above $155, trading above the minimum values of the previous session.In fact, JPMorgan shares played back the upcoming positive at the end of the previous week and at the beginning of this one. Now there is a consolidation at the highs of this and this month, which is 5% lower than the peaks of the beginning of summer. The potential for updating highs this summer remains.Goldman Sachs shares have shown similar dynamics in recent days, but the amount of fixation on the news is almost zero in them. After rising by 2.35% on Monday in the premarket on Tuesday, they are hovering near the levels of the previous close.Now Goldman Sachs securities are trading at the highs of July and at 3% of the peaks of the beginning of summer. Due to the good reporting, a second exit to the June highs is very likely in the coming days or weeks. Conclusions The second quarter promises to be positive for US banks. The first two issuers - JPMorgan Chase with its more classical business model and Goldman Sachs, which specializes in capital markets - have equally benefited from lower reserve requirements and the growth of the US stock market.The further dynamics will be determined by the forecasts for inflation in America and the dynamics of the Fed rate, but the upward trend will prevail. Both chips are trading below recent highs and below consensus forecasts, which will inevitably be updated in the coming ...

Warren Buffett got rid of all airline shares. How else has the Oracle of Omaha investment portfolio changed? We look at which stocks are now included in the top ten of the portfolio and whether they were hit by the coronavirusThe news that Warren Buffett has sold all his shares in the airline business has stirred up Wall Street. The COVID-19 pandemic does not give a chance for an early recovery of this sector, the investor said. And, remaining true to his rule of buying only strong companies, he went into the cache.But it's not just airlines that have been affected by the coronavirus outbreak. The fall did not bypass other stocks included in the investment portfolio of the Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate, which Buffett controls. At the beginning of the year, the value of the portfolio was estimated at $256 billion, and now it is about $194.5 billion.1. AppleThe market value of the largest asset in Buffett's portfolio — the technology giant Apple — is almost $76.2 billion (at market closing prices on May 7). The Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate owns a 5.7% stake in the iPhone manufacturer.As of December 31, 2019, Apple's stake in the portfolio was estimated at almost $71.9 billion. Now it is worth about $76.2 billion. It turns out that Apple's securities have already managed to recover from the coronavirus collapse — the value of the Apple package in the portfolio increased by $4.3 billion.According to the consensus forecast of the Refinitiv service, Apple shares have almost exhausted their growth potential. Nevertheless, the majority of experts recommend buying securities — 29 out of 39 respondents. And only three advise to get rid of them.2. Bank of AmericaBank of America is the largest financial asset of Buffett's company. Berkshire Hathaway owns a 10.9% stake in the bank. The value of this stake is currently about $21.6 billion, while at the beginning of the year the asset was worth almost $32.6 billion.Bank of America securities grew well throughout the past year — from January 2019 to mid-February 2020, they rose by almost 43%. But as a result of the market collapse due to the pandemic, the bank's shares lost 49%. In mid-March, they were given no more than $18 apiece for them.Industry analysts predict the growth of Bank of America shares. According to Refinitiv, the potential is more than 15%. Of the 26 analysts surveyed, 15 recommend buying bank shares, and the remaining 11 recommend continuing to hold previously purchased securities.3. Coca-ColaWarren Buffett has owned shares of the oldest American manufacturer of soft drinks Coca-Cola for more than 30 years, since 1988. Over the years, the investor has accumulated securities worth $17.84 billion. Berkshire Hathaway currently owns 9.3% of the cola manufacturer.Does owning this business justify itself? At the beginning of the year, the value of the Coca-Cola stake was $21.4 billion, today it is about $17.84 billion, that is, the asset has depreciated by almost $3.6 billion in four months. Now the securities are almost close to the level of January 2019, but they are still 19% cheaper than at the beginning of 2020.Shares of Buffett's favorite - Coca-Cola - may rise in price by 12.7% during the year, to $52, according to analysts surveyed by the Refinitiv service. Of the 22 respondents, 16 recommended buying securities, and six more recommended keeping them in a portfolio.4. American ExpressAnother financial asset in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is American Express. The company is known worldwide for its credit cards and traveler's checks. Buffett's company owns 18.8% of the capital of American Express.Over the past four months, the American Express package in the Berkshire Hathaway investment portfolio has depreciated by $5.72 billion. As a result of the "coronavirus" fall, which began at the end of February, securities collapsed by 51% in a month. The shares recovered most of these losses — from the end of March to May 7, their value increased by 30%.Wall Street analysts continue to believe in American Express. Industry experts predict the growth of securities during the year by 13.4%, to $100.52. Half of the respondents (14 out of 28) recommend buying shares, 13 experts adhere to the hold recommendation, and only one analyst advises selling securities.5. Kraft HeinzAmong the ten largest assets in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is a stake in Kraft Heinz. Warren Buffett owns 26.7% of the ketchup manufacturer. The value of the asset for four months decreased by $1.07 billion.A year ago, Warren Buffett admitted that he had greatly overpaid for Kraft Heinz. Since then, the shares of the food holding company have become even cheaper — they have fallen by 33% over the past 16 months. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fall in securities has intensified, but since the market began to recover from a strong collapse in mid-March, the shares have managed to reduce losses in price. As a result, the decrease in securities since the beginning of this year amounted to 10.3%.According to the consensus forecast of Refinitiv, the securities of the American food holding may rise by 4.5% during the year, to $30.79 per piece.6. Wells FargoThe third largest financial asset of Berkshire Hathaway is Wells Fargo Bank. Berkshire Hathaway's share in the bank's capital is 8.5%. This is 4.48% of the value of the entire investment portfolio.In the four months of 2020, the value of Wells Fargo in Buffett's portfolio has halved — from $17.38 billion to $8.72 billion. Securities fell by 53.1% against the background of the coronavirus pandemic.According to Refinitiv surveys, Wells Fargo's quotes may rise by 25.7% to $32.07 in the next 12 months. 17 analysts recommend holding shares in portfolios. Only three analysts advise buying Wells Fargo securities, and seven give a recommendation for sale.7. Moody'sMoody's asset is one of the oldest in Buffett's investment portfolio. The holding first invested in it in 2001. Now the package of the international rating agency has more than 24.6 million shares. Berkshire Hathaway's share in Moody's capital exceeds 13%.The rating agency's share price doubled from January 2019 to February 2020 — from $140 to $287 per share. But then the "coronavirus" collapse deprived the paper of 42% of its value. But even with this in mind, the company's shares have grown by 4.3% since the beginning of the year. And their value in Buffett's portfolio increased from $5.85 billion to $6.11 billion.The securities exceeded all Wall Street expectations and are now trading 3.8% above the annual target set by the Refinitiv consensus. At the same time, none of the analysts surveyed gives a recommendation to sell. And the recommendations buy and hold are equally in the consensus.8. JP Morgan ChaseThe fourth financial asset in the portfolio is one of the largest American investment banks, JP Morgan. As of December 31, 2019, Berkshire Hathaway had more than 60 million shares of JP Morgan worth $8.3 billion in its portfolio. But this package has significantly devalued since the beginning of the year — by May 7, its value fell by $2.82 billion, to $5.48 billion.Since January 2019, JP Morgan shares have been growing until February 19, 2020. But on the general wave of the falling market, the securities fell by 44%. Now the bank's shares are recovering, but their price is still 34.6% lower compared to the beginning of the year.Refinitiv's consensus forecast is optimistic: JP Morgan shares are expected to grow by 13.6%, to $105.42. But only 12 out of 26 analysts recommend buying securities, 13 advise keeping them in portfolios, and one recommends selling them.9. U.S.BancorpIn the top ten of Warren Buffett's portfolio, there is a stake in U.S. Bancorp, the fifth largest US bank by assets. Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate owns 9.9% of the financial holding company. Since the beginning of the year, when the asset was estimated at $7.85 billion, its value has fallen by $2.72 billion.U.S. Bancorp shares rose by almost 30% in 2019, but since the beginning of 2020 they have lost all this growth, falling by 42.3% against the background of the general market collapse.Analysts positively assess the holding's securities — the Refinitiv consensus forecast indicates a potential of 19.5% - up to $41.33 for the next year. If the papers have already been purchased, then they should be kept in a briefcase. Recommendations for the purchase of U.S. Bancorp shares were given by seven experts, for the sale — by four.10. Bank of New York MellonA block of shares of Bank of New York Mellon (1.5% of the value of the entire portfolio) displaced shares of another American bank — Goldman Sachs (1.21% of the portfolio value) from the top ten assets of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.Buffett's company owns 10% of the capital of Bank of New York Mellon. Since the beginning of the year, the package has depreciated by $1.36 billion. The bank's shares have started to decline in price since the beginning of the year, losing about 30% of their value.Wall Street analysts give a positive outlook on Bank of New York Mellon securities. During the year, the shares can rise by more than 20%, up to $43, according to experts surveyed by Refinitiv. Seven of them recommend buying bank shares, nine — holding already purchased securities, and one — selling.SummaryBerkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio has depreciated by 24%, or $61.5 billion, since the beginning of the year. If on December 31, 2019, its cost was $256 billion, then on May 7-a little more than $194.5 billion.An analysis of the dynamics of the top 10 stocks in the portfolio shows that all securities, with the exception of Kraft Heinz shares, grew during 2019. Their growth was interrupted by an outbreak of coronavirus, which caused a global market collapse from mid-February to mid-March this year. Only two stocks from the top 10 - Apple and Moody's — managed to recover losses after the so-called "coronavirus" fall and show positive dynamics since the beginning of the year.Read more: How to invest in stocks and what you need to knowThere was only one change in the top 10 assets of Buffett's portfolio — Goldman Sachs lost the tenth position to Bank of New York Mellon.Compared to the beginning of the year, Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio has four fewer shares. In April, Warren Buffett sold all shares in American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines. However, none of the airlines was included in the top ten assets of the portfolio, so the sale of the air transportation business did not affect the total value of the largest assets of the ...

After a lot of profit and loss reports, which American bank is the best to invest in? Let's take a look.Choosing the best American bank for investment can be a difficult task. It is necessary to carefully study their balance sheet, to find the organizations with the highest costs and the largest obligations. Sometimes such expenses can be an unavoidable evil. With the growing number of online-only competitor banks seeking to capture market share by appealing to millennials, well-known brands will inevitably seek to actively invest in improving their infrastructure.Currently, there is an opinion that investors are spoiled for choice, if we talk about the best stocks of American banks. After a year complicated by the coronavirus pandemic, the four largest consumer-oriented brands showed steady results in the second quarter of 2021.The Big FourWells Fargo's net profit for the three months to June 30 was $6.04 billion, which is in sharp contrast to a net loss of $3.8 billion for the same period in 2020. However, the bank warned that "low interest rates and moderate demand for loans" are still a concern.Bank of America expressed similar concerns when it presented its latest earnings report. Net profit of $9.2 billion was increased due to the release of $1.6 billion previously held in reserve in case of default of borrowers on their loans. But interest income fell by 6%, partly due to the persistently low base rate set by the US Federal Reserve.Other contenders for the title of the best shares include Citigroup, which also made a profit of $1.1 billion after releasing some of the cash. The bank's CEO Jane Fraser, saying that consumer and corporate confidence is growing, said: "This was observed in all our companies, which was reflected in the indicators of investment banking and stocks, as well as in a noticeable increase in expenses on our credit cards. Although we should be aware of the uneven recovery on a global scale, we are optimistic about the future."And another bank, no less important than the previous ones. This is JPMorgan Chase, whose quarterly net profit was $12 billion. Again, a large role was played here by the issuance of credit reserves in the amount of $3 billion. The bank's chairman and chief executive officer, Jamie Dimon, said that total credit card expenses increased by 45% this quarter and were 22% higher than before the pandemic in the second quarter of 2019. It is not surprising that the main drivers of growth were spending on travel and entertainment.If we put together the results of all four major American banks, the overall picture shows that they collectively received $33 billion in profit, 9 billion of which can be associated with the release of reserve funds. This is $9 billion more than analysts expected.Although the US inflation rate is rising, the mood in Washington suggests that banks will have to contend with near-zero interest rates for some time yet. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told a Congressional committee that the central bank does not plan to raise the base rate earlier than 2023. This may become an undesirable obstacle to the profitability of the US banking sector, even if the demand for loans increases.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe Best Shares of American Banks in 2021Even as net income recovers, data from the Financial Times shows that costs are also rising significantly, as the shares of the largest US banks are trying to fend off the threat from smaller (and possibly more flexible) competitors in the financial technology sector. The total expenses of the "big four" for the last quarter amounted to $6.6 billion, an increase of 10% compared to the same period last year.Technology and marketing are mainly behind this growth. Given how the use of cash has decreased due to the coronavirus pandemic, some banks are now trying to catch up by introducing digital services. In the US, Internet-only companies, including Current, Varo and Chime, sought to attract customers by processing their payments faster, offering elegant smartphone applications and refusing transaction fees and minimal balance balances.In particular, it seems that the monetary assistance to American households has taught the traditional banking sector a lesson: consumers expect speed and will vote with their feet if they do not receive their funds quickly enough. Indeed, a study by Cornerstone Advisors suggests that in the US in December 2020, 15% of millennials had digital bank accounts, compared with 5% at the beginning of the same year.However, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup closed more than 250 branches in the first half of 2021, and more closures are expected. This is due to the confidence that those customers who started using online banking during the blocking will not return to the branches in the near future. It could also free up capital to expand digital offerings, which are quickly becoming the main focus for people opening accounts and applying for loans.Frequently Asked Questions1. Why are bank shares falling?Stocks of the best American banks can sometimes serve as a barometer of the state of the economy and can fall when Wall Street is nervous about the danger of an economic recovery. Despite the steady numbers on macroeconomic indicators in the second quarter, shares of companies such as Citigroup fell due to continuing concerns about interest rates.2. Are bank stocks a good investment?According to CNN Business, currently, the consensus among investment analysts is that it is worth buying shares of Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup. As for the projected growth in stock prices, the average forecast for Citigroup is the most attractive, as it is expected that they will grow by 26.3% in the next 12 months.3. How do bank stocks perform during inflation?Thomas Michaud, CEO and president of the investment bank Keefe, Bruyette&Woods (KBW), recently stated that, in his opinion, "bank stocks are a good place if concerns about inflation continue to ...