Microsoft Trading forecasts and signals

The market on the eveOn July 23, the US stock exchanges ended trading in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose by 1.01% to 4,411 points, the Nasdaq added 1.04%, the Dow Jones rose by 0.68%. Representatives of the communications services sector (+2.65%), as well as utilities (+1.28) remained the leaders of growth. The energy sector was trading worse than the market, which fell by 0.43%.Company news:Shares of Moderna (MRNA: +7.8%) reached record levels on the news about the permission for vaccination of children over 12 years old received from the EU regulator.The quotes of the consulting firm Robert Half (RHI: +7.3%) rose after the publication of a strong quarterly report: the company's revenue significantly exceeded forecasts.Intel securities (INTC: -5.3%) were under pressure from the deterioration of forecasts for the next quarter due to a shortage of chips.ExpectationsThe chief infectious disease specialist of the United States, Anthony Fauci, warned of the risk of new outbreaks of COVID-19 in states with a low level of vaccination due to the spread of the delta strain. A difficult epidemic situation is developing in Florida, which accounts for about 20% of newly detected infections. At the same time, the incidence does not yet exceed 350 cases per 100 thousand of the population with an insignificant mortality rate. The situation with the next wave of the epidemic does not cause serious concerns among investors.The dynamics of trading today will be determined by the expectations of important events for investors. The quarterly reporting season is in full swing. This week, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon will present their results. It is possible that they will be able to exceed the expectations of investors. As of today, about a quarter of the companies included in the S&P 500 have reported, and 88% of them have earnings per share higher than forecast.The focus will also be on the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28. However, the investment community does not expect important news from the Fed this time. Today, in our opinion, the market will be dominated by negative dynamics after the positive of last Friday.Asian stock markets closed mainly in the red zone. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.50%, China's CSI 300 fell 3.22%, although Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.04%. EuroStoxx 50 loses 0.85%.Risk appetite is weak. The yield of 10-year treasuries is 1.28%. The price for Brent futures rose to $74.1 per barrel. Gold is trading near $1801 per troy ounce.We expect that the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4380-4420 points.MacrostatisticsThe monthly report on new home sales for June will be published (forecast: growth of 4% m/m after a decline of almost 6% m/m in May).Technical pictureTechnically, the S&P 500 continues to move in a long-term uptrend. On the eve of the broad market index reached a new high. The trading week ended above a significant resistance at the level of 4,400 points, and this was a positive signal. The RSI and MACD indicators indicate the likelihood of continued growth in the coming trading sessions, although a small technical pullback after a four-day rally is not excluded. The nearest target for the S&P 500 is 4450 points.Point of viewOn July 27, Microsoft (MSFT) will report for the second quarter. According to the consensus forecast of Factset, the corporation's revenue will grow by 16%, to $44.13 billion, non-GAAP EPS will increase by 30.8%, to $1.91. We believe that the Productivity and Business segment will be among the key drivers of financial performance growth due to the continued steady demand for cloud application solutions (Office 365 and Dynamics 365), as well as the positive situation in the online advertising market (LinkedIn). In addition, due to the active increase in demand for Azure cloud computing services, we expect very strong results from the Intelligent Cloud segment. We believe that the focus of investors ' attention will be forecasts for the next quarter and the rest of this year. Of particular interest are the margin indicators and expectations related to its prospects. Adobe and Oracle, which reported earlier, indicated an increase in operating expenses and investments.Also this Tuesday, the Alphabet (GOOGL) report for April-June will be published. The general market consensus assumes revenue growth by the maximum 46% y/y since 2028. The optimistic forecast is based on the effect of a low base (in the second quarter of last year, the Internet giant's revenue decreased by 1.7%) and is supported by favorable conditions in the online advertising market. The latter factor has already been reflected in the quarterly reports of Snap and Twitter. The focus is also on the results of the Google Cloud segment. Its revenue is expected to increase by 50% y/y, the most important metric for investors will be marginality, which has been negative so far. We believe that the actual results of Alphabet will exceed consensus forecasts, but the reaction of investors to the release may be ambiguous. Based on the analysis of the options market, we do not exclude the tendency to fix positions.On July 26, after the closing of the main trading, the quarterly reports will be presented by Tesla Inc. (TSLA). The FactSet consensus assumes a twofold, up to $11.5 billion, revenue growth year-on-year with an increase in EPS (according to GAAP) from $0.10 to $0.55. The volume of production and supply of electric vehicles in the reporting period increased by 15% and 9% q/q (2.5 times and 2.2 times y/y), respectively, for the first time in the company's history exceeding 200 thousand units. With this in mind, we are counting on Tesla's strong financial results for April-June. Management's comments on compliance with the guidelines, the situation with the shortage of chips, as well as operations with digital currency will be ...

The media reports about Microsoft's intention to buy Nuance Communications. The relevant deal may be officially announced in the coming days. It will amount to $16 billion. The scope of Nuance Communications includes the production of software and equipment. The developments of this corporation were used in the creation of some programs for Apple. Nuance Communications' revenue has been declining for several years. In this situation, its management considered the purchase offer from Microsoft very relevant. This deal will be beneficial for both companies. Microsoft hopes to increase its customer base through Nuance Communications. This will especially affect such areas of activity as healthcare and telecommunications, as well as financial services. Microsoft has acquired several companies over the past five years in an effort to expand its business. So, in 2016, the LinkedIn network was purchased. Then GitHub and ZeniMax were ...