Netflix Trading forecasts and signals

Streaming service Netflix is laying off about 150 people, mainly in the US, which is 2% of the total number of employees. This decision is due to the company's attempts to reduce the growth of costs after Netflix presented a disappointing report last month.As previously reported, the company intends to reduce some of its expenses in the next two years. Although Netflix will continue to allocate about $17 billion a year to develop new TV shows and movies, the number of people working behind the scenes will decrease.Netflix renews collaboration with visual effects and animation company DNEGVisual effects and animation company DNEG has extended its deal with streaming service Netflix until 2025. The agreement was concluded for at least $350 million. The films and TV movies created under the partnership include "Very Strange Things" and "Project Adam".The ReDefine division of DNEG will also provide VFX services and creative control over individual Netflix programs.Netflix shares on Nasdaq on May 17 rose 2.17% to $190.56 per ...

Streaming service Netflix is considering launching live streaming. So far, the idea is in the early stages of development, and it is assumed that streaming will be suitable for many unscripted shows and stand-up programs of the platform. In addition, Netflix will be able to conduct direct voting in broadcasts and talent contests, such as the upcoming dance competition Dance 100.This move opens up the possibility of ordering a number of new series without a script to use this technology, which puts it on a par with linear networks, which often produce live special editions for major competitive series, such as "Dancing with the Stars", which are now on Disney+.Netflix shares on Nasdaq on May 13 rose by 7.65%, $187.64 per ...

Streaming service Netflix Inc has received a lawsuit from its shareholders in the United States. Investors accuse the platform of misleading the market about its ability to continue increasing the number of subscribers.The lawsuit was filed by a Texas investment fund in the Federal District Court of San Francisco. It contains a demand to compensate investors who owned Netflix shares in the period from October 19, 2021 to April 19, 2022. It is claimed that the company's top management did not disclose information that the growth of the streaming service is slowing down amid increased competition. The shareholders believe that as a result of the lack of information, they have suffered significant losses and damage.Netflix shares fell 20% in January after the company reported weak subscriber growth. Then in April, the shares sank by more than 35% after an unsuccessful report for the 1st quarter of this year.Netflix shares on Nasdaq on May 4 rose by 2.07% to $204.01 per ...

The market the day beforeThe session on April 26, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 declined by 2.81% to 4175 points, the Dow Jones fell by 2.38%, the Nasdaq adjusted by 3.95%. Issuers of the cyclical consumer goods sector (-4.99%) and technology companies (-3.71%) looked worse than the market. The only industry that showed growth was energy (+0.05%).Company newsNetflix Inc (NFLX: -5.48%) has announced a deal with Japanese studio Colorido to produce three full-length anime films.Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD: -7.77%) expanded its subscriber base by 2 million in the first quarter of this year.3M Company's quarterly profit (MMM: -2.95%) decreased to $1.52 billion due to litigation and weakening demand for masks.We expectThe consumer confidence index in April fell to 107.3 points against 107.6 in March, which was below the consensus forecast of 108 points. In the same period last year, the indicator was 117.5 points. Over the past month, consumer expectations have deteriorated quite a bit, despite inflationary pressures and the tense geopolitical situation in the world. However, the trading session on April 26 showed that investors are concerned about the prospects for profit growth of companies: this translated into a decline in the stock market with a simultaneous drop in US government bond yields. The quarterly results of major issuers released on April 26 (3M Company, General Electric, UPS, PepsiCo and Sherwin-Williams) in most cases turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts, which, however, could not fully offset the negative expectations of bidders regarding assets characterized by a high level of risk.The yield of 10-year treasuries stopped at 2.77%, which is 5 bps below the level of April 25. The yield of "two-year-olds" decreased by 9 bps, to 2.55%, the indicator for 30-year securities was 2.86%.Trading on April 26 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended mainly in the green zone. China's CSI 300 rose by 2.94%, Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 1.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.06%. EuroStoxx 50 has been rising by 0.29% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $104.99 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1901.40 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4130-4180 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe market sentiment index fell by 2 points to 42.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 dropped below the support level in the range of 4200-4250 points. This may lead to the development of further corrective movement within the descending channel, which also does not contradict the signals of the MACD indicator.In sightOn April 27, the report for the first quarter will be presented by PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL). The consensus forecast assumes revenue growth of the largest online payment system by 6.1% YoY, to $6.4 billion, and a decrease in EPS by 27.8% yoy, to $0.88. The value of PYPL shares has fallen by 71% from the highs of 2021 due to a slowdown in revenue growth and a deterioration in the forecast for the expansion of the user base. In 2020 and 2021, the company's revenue increased by 21% and 18%, respectively. This year, it is projected to grow in the range of 15-17% due to the pressure on the income of the separation from eBay and high inflation, which negatively affects consumer spending. At the same time, excluding eBay sales, PayPal shows higher growth rates. The termination of cooperation with this platform will be compensated by a partnership with Amazon, which will also accelerate the monetization of the Venmo application. At the same time, the company maintains a low debt burden and increases free cash flow, which creates opportunities for long-term growth. The current PYPL P/E score has dropped to a historic low of 24x, it is noticeably lower than that of the leading companies in the sector. However, the attractiveness of PayPal shares will be determined by the pace of business growth in the face of increased ...

The streaming platform Netflix has signed an agreement with the anime studio Studio Colorido for the production of three joint feature films.The service plans to expand its streaming in Asia. The Asia-Pacific region was the only bright spot in Netflix's revenue for the 1st quarter of 2022, as a result of which the service lost subscribers for the first time in more than a decade. The company said that there is good growth in the region, including in Japan. Netflix's competitors, including Amazon and Disney, are also investing in the creation of original anime content.Netflix, together with Studio Colorido, will produce three full-length films. The premiere of the first one will take place in September of this year.Netflix shares on Nasdaq on April 26 fell by 5.48% to $198.4 per ...

Streaming service Netflix reported the loss of 200 thousand paid subscribers in the 1st quarter of 2022 and the risk of further reduction of users of the platform by 2 million subscribers. The last time Netflix celebrated the loss of subscribers was in 2011.It is noted that the reason for the loss of interest among users could be an expensive paid subscription. The company's management noted that Netflix now has 221.6 million subscribers and more than 100 million subscribers use the services for free. The video service plans to introduce a cheaper subscription that will contain advertising, and will also begin to stop attempts by several people to use one paid account.Despite disappointing forecasts, Netflix's total revenue for the 1st quarter increased by 9.8% to $7.87 billion. Net income per share was $3.53 and exceeded analysts' forecasts.Netflix shares on Nasdaq before the opening of trading on April 20 fell by 25.10% to $261.10 per ...

The market the day beforeThe main American stock indexes ended the trading session on April 13 in the red. The S&P 500 declined by 1.21% to 4,393 points, the Nasdaq fell by 2.14%, the Dow Jones dropped by 0.33%. Only the energy sector (+0.42%) and utilities (+0.01%) remained in a small plus. The risk sectors of IT (-2.45%) and communications (-1.82%) were outsiders.Company newsUS Bancorp (USB: +4.2%) reported better than expected net interest and commission income for the first quarter. There is an increase in lending and a low level of spending.Peloton Interactive (PTON: -4.6%) announced a reduction in prices for simulators and an increase in the subscription price.Wells Fargo (WFC: -4.5%) report for the first quarter fell short of consensus on net interest and commission income. Expenses exceeded expectations. Among the positive aspects of the release are net interest margin, credit growth and credit indicators.We expectThe focus of the investment community remains the Fed's plans to implement a soft landing of the economy. The main task of the regulator is to tighten monetary policy so as to slow down inflation without causing a recession. At Goldman Sachs, the probability of a contraction of the economy in the next two years is estimated at about 35%. Of the 14 cycles of monetary policy tightening in the United States since World War II, 11 have been accompanied by a recession for two years, but only eight of them can be partially attributed to the actions of the Fed. At the same time, the economic downturn has been avoided recently. Taking into account these statistics, investors are in no hurry to actively put the corresponding risks in prices.Market participants continue to monitor corporate reporting for the first quarter. Inflation has a positive effect on corporate revenue, but this factor is not so positive for profitability. Rising energy prices and wages, as well as continuing problems in supply chains provoked by tough anti-trump restrictions in China, may put pressure on corporate profits. As of the end of last week, the FactSet consensus forecast assumed an increase in quarterly EPS of companies from the S&P500 index by 5.74% YoY. The most active increase in profits can be demonstrated by the energy, industrial and manufacturing sectors. EPS declines are expected in the finance and durable goods sectors.APR stock exchanges showed mixed dynamics on April 18. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.08%, China's CSI 300 declined 0.53%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.58%. There are no auctions on European stock exchanges due to the Easter holidays.The yield of 10-year treasuries rose to 2.83%, reacting to the "hawkish" mood of the Fed. The price of Brent crude futures is trading near $111 per barrel. Gold is rising to $1996 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4350-4400 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped 1 point to 45.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 is hovering at support at around 4,400 points. While the benchmark has not gone below 4300, there are chances for the formation of the "inverted head and shoulders" pattern, which would be a signal for a strong "bullish" reversal. The RSI remains in the neutral zone, the MACD indicator also indicates the parity of "bulls" and "bears". If buyers do not strengthen their positions, the benchmark will be able to test support in the range of 4300-4350 points in the short term.In sightNetflix (NFLX) will present quarterly results on April 19 after the market closes. The consensus forecast assumes revenue growth of 11% YoY, to $7.94 billion, with a decrease in GAAP EPS from $3.75 to $2.92. The results will be negatively affected by the shutdown of the streaming service in Russia, which could reduce its audience by 1 million subscribers. However, we believe that investors have already taken this fact into account in the quotes. The increase in the number of subscribers is expected to be 2.8 million, despite the fact that three months ago management conservatively predicted an increase in the base by 2.5 million. The reaction of investors to the quarterly release will also depend on how close the calculations of the service's management regarding the dynamics of the audience in the second quarter will be to the consensus, assuming its increase by 2.6 million. By the end of the year, the market-wide expectations include the expansion of the subscriber base by 18 million. We consider these goals achievable even with increased competition. The investment community will pay special attention to management's comments on the prospects for operating marginality due to the acceleration of inflation.On April 20, the quarterly report will be presented by United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL). Revenue of one of the largest US air carriers is expected to decrease by 20% compared to the result of the same period in 2019, to $7.669 billion, with a loss per share of $4.22. The beginning of the year is not the most favorable time for air carriers, so modest quarterly results are embedded in the stock quotes of UAL. The market predicts a reduction in throughput (ASK) by 2% QoQ, to 86,533 million km-seats. We are counting on the neutral reporting of the air carrier. According to the data of analytical and marketing agencies in the field of tourism, as well as the plans and statistics of the air carrier, the volume of tourist and business trips will significantly recover during the year. Their dynamics may partially offset the impact of rising fuel prices on airline results. However, despite significant fluctuations in aviation kerosene prices, the company does not hedge fuel risks, which, along with other factors, will continue to put pressure on profitability.On April 22, Schlumberger (SLB) will publish reports for the first quarter. We expect a significant increase in the results of the largest oilfield services company year-on-year due to increased drilling activity in the world. On average, the number of active drilling rigs in January-March increased by 35% YoY, or by 7.6% QoQ, reaching 1,654 units. Nevertheless, the first quarter is traditionally a weak period for oilfield service companies. The consensus assumes the company's revenue growth by 13.3% YoY with a decrease of 4.9% QoQ, to $5.9 billion. The increase in adjusted net profit is projected at 57% YoY, to $0.33 per share (-19.5% QoQ). Of interest will be the dynamics of the company's expenses against the background of high inflation, as well as the assessment of losses due to the conflict between Russia and ...

Netflix shares are trading 45% below their 2021 highs. Moreover, the quotes began a sharp decline even before the release of the quarterly report, which contained weak data on the growth of the number of subscribers. This happened because of the news that the platform is going to increase the cost of a monthly subscription in all categories. The changes immediately took effect for all new subscribers, while the rest received a 30-day delay.Since 2011, the Standard plan has already managed to rise in price from $7.99 to $15.49, or almost twice. The company can be understood, as it actively invests in creating unique content for its users, but it is worth considering an important nuance: for the first time, a Netflix subscription has become more expensive than HBO Max, a service that generates high-budget content. Moreover, HBO Max is conducting an aggressive marketing campaign to attract new viewers, offering 20% discounts for the first year, thanks to which the standard service plan costs $ 12 per month. There is an opportunity to pay for services immediately for a year in advance, as a result of which the cost of services decreases even more. But in addition to TV series like "The World of the Wild West”, the platform also offers users fresh movie releases from Warner Brothers, for example, the Matrix.Let's remember about other competitors. For $7.99 per month, Disney+ subscribers get access to both already released releases from the Marvel cinematic universe and those planned for the near future. It is possible that a price increase of only a few dollars on the part of Netflix will not lead to a serious outflow of users, but it will clearly make people who plan to become customers of the service think, and additionally slow down the growth rate of the subscriber ...