Spotify Trading forecasts and signals

Spotify shares are trading 20% below their highs. This happened for a reason – a slowdown in the growth rate of MAU (Monthly Active Users). At the end of the first quarter, the indicator increased by 24% YoY, to 356 million. However, compared to the previous quarter (the last three months of 2020), this number increased by only 3%. This dynamic forced the management to revise the forecast for the growth of users for the whole of 2021. If earlier the company expected the growth of MAU by 407-427 million, now by 402-422 million.During the same period, revenue increased by 16% YoY, to 2.15 billion euros. For comparison, in the previous two reporting periods, the growth was 17% and 14%, respectively.Back to MAU. The company notes that the results were worse than expected in Latin America and Europe, while the” significant " contribution was made by the United States, Mexico, Russia and India. As you know, American customers bring in more revenue than others. Management's words about good results in the United States add to the optimism and allow us not to worry so much about future revenue.About 90% of the revenue is accounted for by “premium". The number of users who signed up for this subscription increased by 21%. Spotify has started to raise prices in key markets since the beginning of the year: the United States, the United Kingdom and Brazil. According to the company, this step did not lead to an additional outflow of users. Moreover, the outflow decreased slightly due to the expansion of the number of possible subscriptions (family plan, ...