RUSSELL 2000 Trading forecasts and signals

On April 7, the US stock exchanges ended in a mixed pattern. The S&P 500 index rose 0.15% to 4,080 points, the Dow Jones rose a negligible 0.05%, and the NASDAQ fell 0.07%. Most sectors showed modest performance, with the exception of the raw materials industry, which sank by 1.75%, mainly due to the fall of chemical companies. Rosta shares continue to outperform value companies, with treasury rates remaining close to 1.6%. Investors ' attention is focused on the prospects for opening up economies, the details of the infrastructure plan and tax reform. Company News Storage technology provider SMART Global Holdings (SGH: +12%) reported quarterly results above expectations and strong guidance.Vehicle electrification solutions provider XL Fleet (XL: +3%) said it received an order for 19 electric pickups from Apex Clean Energy.Lamb Weston Holdings (LW: -3.6%) reported quarterly results below expectations, but noted a positive impact on the business from the easing of quarantine restrictions. I expect Today, most of the world's stock markets are showing positive dynamics. The focus continues to be on the prospects for opening up economies, the details of the infrastructure plan, potential rate increases and capital flows.The publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, held on March 16-17, did not present any surprises: The economic recovery will depend on the pace of vaccination. It was noted that too fast a pace can lead to excessive risk appetite in the stock market. The participants of the meeting expect that the medium-term growth of inflation will be temporary, and therefore the regulator intends to continue to adhere to the previously chosen soft course of monetary policy.The discussion of infrastructure reform leads to a closer attention of investors to the potential increase in taxes. On the eve of Janet Yellen noted that the tax reform will shift the balance in the direction of companies that provide a contribution to the American economy. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, in turn, said that the increase in the corporate income tax to 28% is still subject to discussion in the White House.Asian stock markets showed mixed dynamics. China's CSI 300 rose 0.17%, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.07%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.15%. European EuroStoxx 50 adds 0.34%.Risk appetite is weak. The rate on 10-year treasuries is near 1.65%. Brent crude futures are hovering around $63, while Gold is rising to $1,746. The Russel2000 index of small-cap companies loses 1.6%.We expect that the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4070-4110 points. Economic news and macro statistics On April 8, weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be presented. Expectation: 680 thousand against 719 thousand for the previous period. Reports Today, the report for the 2021 fiscal year will be presented by the alcohol giant Constellation Brands (STZ). Its latest quarterly figures reflected surprisingly strong sales growth, as steady home beer consumption offset falling demand in bars and restaurants. Along with Boston Beer, Constellation Brands ' sales accounted for most of the industry-wide growth in 2020. The report released this week should contain more evidence of strong growth in imported beer brands such as Modelo and Pacifico, along with the modest success of the launch of sales of the Corona hard seltzer, which directly competes with Boston Beer's Truly franchise. Sales growth will slow compared to the previous quarter due to shifts in shipping and inventory. Constellation Brands ' revenue is expected to fall 2% to $1.865 billion. The stock's movement will depend on the forecast for the 2022 fiscal year. Technical picture Technically, the S&P 500 is still in an uptrend. On the eve of the broad market index continued to consolidate in a narrow range. The absence of a more pronounced correction is a positive factor. The MACD indicator indicates the continuation of the advantage of the "bulls", while the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone. We believe that there is still a little room for growth, but the S&P 500 index will meet serious resistance at the level of 4110 points, in the area of which the uptrend line ...

The US economy, being the largest in the world, attracts the attention of a huge number of investors from many countries. The attractiveness of the US market is due to a wide variety of trading platforms, trading instruments, a huge number of issuing companies that place their securities here, including global giants of various industries. And it's not just American companies. The US stock market can be considered international. Shares and depositary receipts of companies from different countries, including Russia, China, Germany, etc. are traded here. Thus, the US market is still a huge opportunity for geographical diversification of investments. And it is very important for investors to monitor the state of the "market climate" in order to choose the most attractive assets or rebalance their portfolio in time. Stock indexes act as indicators reflecting the state of the entire market or individual industries.This article will tell you more about the US stock indices:What is an index?US stock indexes, their types.Popular US stock indexes.How to invest in US stock indexes.What is an index?Stock indexes are calculated summary indicators consisting of a specific list of companies that reflect the state of a sector, a group of companies on the stock market or the entire market. When it is said that the market has fallen or the market has grown with the indication of a specific percentage, then the growth or fall is judged primarily by the dynamics of the market index. That is, the index serves as an indicator, or they also say a "barometer", which speaks about the situation in the market or in a particular industry. That is, depending on the object and purposes of monitoring, investors monitor either industry indices or broad market indices.Indexes are created and tracked by specialized providers or exchanges.Indices are formed from the securities of issuers selected according to a certain criterion. There are no universal criteria. Each market index has its own set - from market value (capitalization), industry affiliation, place of registration to the value of free-float and the number of periods in which the company worked with profit. The composition of the indexes is not constant. They are reviewed with a certain frequency, that is, the so-called rebalancing occurs. Companies that no longer meet the established criteria are excluded from the index. And they are replaced by new participants. Usually, for an issuer, inclusion in the index is a significant driver of the growth of market quotations. And usually the price increase does not occur at the time of the announcement of the news or the revision of the index structure that has already taken place. Investors track information about candidates long before the news is announced, and therefore, at the time of rebalancing, this event is already embedded in the share price of new index participants.The US stock market is one of the oldest. The first US stock index originated in the 1890s, when Charles Dow developed the Dow Jones Transportation Average index, based on data on eleven transportation organizations in the country. This index is still used today as the most recognized indicator of the American transport sector.Thus, all stock indexes that exist now meet their specific goals. For example, the DJ Transportation transport index reflects the state of the transport industry, the DJ Financials financial index is an indicator of the state of financial sector companies, etc. So, monitoring the industry index allows you to assess the state of the industry for which the index is compiled. The main indices that display the general state of the US economy include the S&P500, NASDAQ100, etc. And then we will tell you more about these and other indexes.Read more: Dow Theory: Six basic principles of Technical analysisUS stock indexes, their typesThere are about 765 stock indexes in the USA. These include all kinds of indices, starting with such well-known ones as the S&P500, Nasdaq100, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones Composite Average (DJA), and ending with narrow-profile indices, where the PHLX Semiconductor semiconductor index can be cited as an example.All existing US stock market indices can be grouped as follows:Industry indexes. As an example, indexes (the quantitative content of the index is indicated in parentheses):DJ Health Care (DJUSHC) is an index showing the state of the healthcare sector (100 companies from the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries);DJ Transportation (DJT) is an index that tracks the state of the transport industry (20 transport and logistics companies);DJ Utility Average (DJU) – index of the state of the public utilities sector (15 utility companies);DJ Financials (DJF) is an index reflecting the state of the financial sector (257 financial companies).Broad market indices. These include the S&P500, S&P1500, DJ Composite, NYSE Composite, NYSE Amex Composite, Nasdaq Composite. They are used to assess the state of the entire market.TOP-capitalization indexes. This includes the S&P100, Dow Jones, Nasdaq100. These indexes allow us to assess the complex state of the most "expensive" companies grouped according to certain characteristics in various indexes.Indexes of companies with small and medium capitalization. This includes the Russell 2000, S&P 400, S&P 600. These indices reflect the assessment of the condition of companies with a relatively small market capitalization.Other indexes. This includes the market volatility index - the VIX index, the calculation of which is based on the volatility of the S& P500. The same group includes the VXO volatility index, calculated from the amplitude of fluctuations in the S&P100 index.Popular US stock indexesThe main American indices will be considered in more detail here.Dow Jones IndustrialThe Dow Jones Industrial is one of the oldest indices of the US market, was invented and began to be used in 1896. The index is considered one of the main indicators of the American economy. It helps investors and stakeholders in a simple way to assess the market dynamics of the industrial sector of the economy.Its structure is formed by the 30 largest industrial sectors, including such well-known Apple, Boeing, etc.When selecting this index, the impeccable business reputation of the company, stable growth and interest from investors are taken into account (determined by the indicator of trade turnover). At the same time, there are no clearly defined quantitative criteria — the decision is made by a special committee. To include an issuer in the DJIA index, its headquarters must be located in the USA, and the bulk of its income must be generated here. In addition, it should be a system-forming company, that is, its activities should make a tangible contribution to the country's economy. And to top it all off, the company's securities must be listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ trading platforms.Rebalancing is carried out every few months: if a company ceases to meet the criteria, then its shares leave the index. They are replaced by new issuers.Dow Jones Composite AverageThis US index appeared in 1934. It tracks the dynamics of share prices of 65 companies leading in their industries. This is an extended index based on three indexes:Dow Jones Industrial Average Yield Weighted (DJIYW) - DJIYW is an analogue for the main index, consisting of thirty companies on the DJIA list that have high profitability. Its member organizations must have a well-defined dividend payment schedule and excellent financial performance. The index is weighted according to their respective 12-month dividend yield.The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is a transportation index that has existed for more than a hundred years and is leading the monitoring of companies providing logistics services throughout the United States and beyond.Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) – it consists of fifteen organizations from the field of utilities.The presence of the DJA index allows you to more broadly assess the state of three indices at once at the same time, which may be convenient for certain investors.Standard & Poor’s 500The S&P500 index is the most well-known and most widely used index of all. In its significance. Many agree that the S&P500 is one of the best indicators reflecting the situation of the US market. S&P500 is sometimes considered a "barometer of the economy", representing the results of the US market and being a reference point for many investors. Its calculation is based on the capitalization of issuers.The index is based on the 500 largest companies listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ trading platforms in terms of market value.You can see many famous companies in its composition: Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Amazon, COCA-COLA, Mc'Donalds, Facebook, Alphabet and other legendary companies.When deciding whether to add to the index, the company is checked according to the criteria listed below:The organization must have a US registration.The market value (capitalization) is estimated at at least $6.1 billion.Free-float size ≥ 50%.The company should have been operating with positive operating profit for the last four quarters.Only ordinary shares can be included in the index, besides, they must have large trading volumes (more than 250,000 shares/month) and have a long market trading history.The structure of the S&P500 index is reviewed once every 3 months at the end of each calendar quarter. Companies that do not meet the criteria are removed from it.Read more: S&P 500 Stock Index - history, calculation and forecastingStandard & Poor’s 100The calculation of this index follows the same principle as for the 500 corporations of the S&P500 index. However, only companies with registered options on the Chicago Stock Exchange can be in the index.The S&P100 index is used in trading futures and options. As for the selection criteria, as a rule, the largest companies from the S&P 500 list with registered options are selected for inclusion in the index. The S&P100 index is formed in such a way as to maintain a balance between the ratio of companies from different sectors.This index is important for speculative traders who are interested in trading options of large companies.Nasdaq 100 IndexThe Nasdaq 100 index has been calculated since the mid-1980s. It is made up of hundreds of organizations with the largest capitalization (except for the financial sector), and takes into account not only US corporations. Most of the structure is companies.The index does not include companies from the financial, oil and gas sectors, as well as from the mining industry. The most prominent representatives of the index are: AMD, Adobe, Intel, Netflix, NVIDIA, Tesla, etc.The following criteria are applied to make a decision on adding a company 's shares to the Nasdaq 100 index:The Company should not carry out financial or insurance activities.The company's activities should be related to the field of high technology.More than 1.25 million shares outstanding at the time of listing, affiliated persons should not own more than 10% of the company.At the time of listing, the company's stock must have an offer price of at least $ 4, and three or more market makers must participate in the listing procedure.Rebalancing of the index takes place once a year, on the third Friday of December after the close of trading. The companies included in the top 100 according to the annual revision remain in the index. Those who occupy places from 101 to 125 places remain if they were in the top 100 according to the results of the previous year's review. Those not in the top 125 are excluded, regardless of the rank of the previous year.The Nasdaq 100 index is interesting to investors, as it is one of the key indicators of the American market.Read more: Index NASDAQ 100 - history, advantages and what it depends onNasdaq Composite IndexThe Nasdaq Composite is a composite index that is weighted by capitalization. It includes over 3,000 securities of high-tech companies, as well as companies with rapid growth from various industries – biotechnology, space, aircraft, etc., traded on the NASDAQ exchange. This index contains about one hundred of the largest companies with a high market value. The index is maintained and calculated by the Nasdaq exchange, unlike other indices, it is expressed in dollar terms, not in points.To be included in the index of an organization, you need to meet the following criteria:Listing on the Nasdaq Exchange trading platform.Only ordinary shares of the company can be included in the index. No convertible bonds, preferred securities, derivatives and real-time can be included.The company should not engage in insurance activities.The index can include a variety of companies, ranging from world-famous large corporations to little-known small companies. The most famous participants of the index are: Apple, Autodesk, Cisco, NVIDIA, Google, eBay, etc.Various investors are interested in tracking the index, and first of all those who want to invest in the technology sector.Russell 2000The Russell 2000 index is one of America's investment indices, which, like most indices, is weighted by capitalization. Originated in the mid-80s of the last century, it allows you to track the dynamics of 2000 companies with small capitalization. The most expensive companies have the greatest weight, as well as the greatest influence in it.This index allows you to assess the state of small businesses in the United States. The peak of its popularity was in the 90s, which was caused by strong movements in the share prices of its member companies.The index contains companies that, as a rule, do not have a globally recognizable brand.The Russell 2000 structure includes the following economic sectors: finance, healthcare, technology, cyclical and consumer goods, industry, non-cyclical consumer goods, basic materials, utilities and energy. At the end of 2020, there were five industries that made a tangible impact on the index structure.This index is of interest to those investors whose investment objects are small-cap companies.It can be concluded that index monitoring has the following objectives:Obtaining information about the aggregate dynamics of quotations of companies from the "basket" of the index.Obtaining information and assessing the current market situation.Long-term study of the investment climate in a particular group of companies, industry or country.Obtaining aggregated information about the actions of market participants.Read more: Exchange Trade Funds (ETF)How to invest in US stock indexesThere are two main ways in which you can invest in a stock index: the purchase of futures and the purchase of ETFs. US index futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Before making a decision to purchase futures, it should be remembered that futures are high-risk financial instruments, for their acquisition it is necessary to have either the status of a qualified investor, or an open account with a foreign broker, which is not always possible.A more convenient way is to purchase a real-time stock index. Among the advantages are the following:The ability to invest in all stocks included in the index.The relatively low purchase price of the ETF.The need for a relatively small amount and a low exchange commission when purchasing one of the ETFs on the index, than when independently repeating the index by buying each index share. In other words, buying in real time allows you to achieve broad diversification of investments with small amounts of capital.Currently, there are various data on a large number of popular stock indexes. For example, the S&P500 index has the following data:SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is the most popular ETF with a commission of 0.09%.iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) ETF - this ETF ranks second in terms of trading turnover, the commission is 0.04%.There is also data for other indexes:The Invesco QQQ (QQQ) ETF is an ETF on the Nasdaq 100.The Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Stock Index ETF tracking Stocks (ONEQ) is an ETF on the Nasdaq Composite.SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF - ETF for the Dow Jones Industrial Index.The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) is an ETF on the S&P 100.The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is a Russell 2000 ETF.There is also a wide range of real-time industry indexes.Healthcare - SPDR Fund for the Healthcare Sector (XLV), Vanguard Healthcare ETF (VHT), iShares ETF for US Healthcare (IYH).Biotechnologies - iShares Nasdaq Biotechnological ETF (IBB-, SPDR S&P Biotechnological ETF (XBI), First Trust Amex Biotechnologies Index (FBT).Energy - ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO), US Brent Oil Fund (BNO), US 12-month Natural Gas Fund (UNL).Finance – Vanguard Financial ETF (VFH), iShares USA Financial ETF (IYG), Invesco KBW Financial ETF with High Dividend Yield (KBWD).Transport – iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT), SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN). Average Transportation ETF (IYT).The main disadvantage of real-time investing is that, in addition to companies with good financial performance and growth prospects, it may also include companies with poor performance or simply unprofitable.However, there are options for "smart investing" in the index when you choose which companies to invest in. This approach implies spot investments and exclusion of ballast from the portfolio in the form of unprofitable companies that do not have fundamental sources of growth. This approach, firstly, reduces the risks of capital loss, and secondly, increases the efficiency of investment.Read more: Stock market indices: what are they and why do investors need them?ConclusionStock indexes are one of the important tools available to investors. The main goal that is achieved with the help of this tool is to monitor the situation or, as investors also say, the temperature, the entire stock market or industries of interest. The family of American market indices occupies a special place in the world hierarchy due to its size and, of course, its "authority". Observing the dynamics of changes in certain indices allows you to make a judgment about the current state of both the entire US economy and its individual sectors, and helps in making an investment decision.The presence of ETFs for stock market indices allows its participants to invest in a financial instrument that allows them to diversify their investments at a lower cost than when repeating the index independently. However, it must be remembered that buying futures or investing in an ETF of a separate index does not allow you to choose only the best representatives of the index, but forces you to purchase the entire set of shares of the companies that make up it, both "good" and ...