USD/ZAR Trading forecasts and signals

The US Dollar against the South African Rand is not a very popular exotic instrument on the international market, but one of the most popular in comparison with other "exotics" such as the crown or forint.USD/ZAR forecast (online) for todayThis forecast is based on technical analysis for four timeframes, where the strongest signal to buy or sell is with the prefix ACTIVE, and the repetition of the same signal on all timeframes will also be a plus.It is very difficult to make a forecast for such a volatile and little predictable pair, especially for small time periods in which it is only possible to scalp, relying on luck, but starting from H1, the dynamics becomes more meaningful.Due to the not too high popularity, most brokers do not spend resources on compiling professional analytics on USD/ZAR and other rare Forex instruments, and this is another reason why the pair is not recommended for beginners, since they will have to rely more on their own knowledge. However, it is not worth ignoring such a profitable pair, because along with the high risk, the Dollar-Rand profit can amount to hundreds of percent of the deposit per month, which is comparable, perhaps, only with crypto currencies.Making accurate analytics and forecasts for this pair in the long term is not an easy task even for a professional, since the current difficult situation in the global economy does not lend itself well to analyzing options, there can be many developments, both in a negative and positive scenario.For example, on the one hand, China, one of the world's main consumers of raw materials, is experiencing serious difficulties, and economic growth is slowing down, but on the other hand, the Chinese government is taking measures to stimulate industry, which contributes to the growth of demand, including for ferrous and non–ferrous metals (copper and iron ore), a major exporter which is South Africa.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?In general, if South Africa does not take effective steps to strengthen the diversification of its economy, then the prospects for the Rand with the current raw materials orientation of the economy seem rather negative.As you can see on any chart, Tuesday is the most active trading day for a currency pair by a small margin, however, on other days of Forex operation (except Monday), the price can pass more than 2000 pips (in total in one direction and the other).General characteristicsThe USD ZAR currency pair is characterized by not just high, but ultra-high volatility (up to 2500 points per day), which is perfect for risky scalpers with a sufficient deposit size and strong nerves. Of course, spreads correspond to the activity level of the instrument (very high, but with such volatility they pay off).USD/ZAR is one of the many pairs on Forex with direct quotation. The main currency in it is the US dollar, which is bought for South African rands. The exchange rate is displayed up to the fourth digit after the separator (12.8148) or up to the fifth, as, for example, in MetaTrader 5 (12.81861).Since the pair is extremely volatile (at any time of the day), there is no special role in which session to trade, however, the quietest time suitable for calculating risks and performing analysis before entering a trade is the interval from 20-21 to 04-05 GMT.All serious Forex brokers provide such an exotic currency pair as USD ZAR.Read more: Index NASDAQ 100 - history, advantages and what it depends onFactors influencing USD ZAR and what the exchange rate depends onDespite all the crises of recent years, the US economy still retains the world championship. About 79.6% of the country's GDP comes from the developed services sector and trade (banking, brokerage, insurance, consulting), but the industry still has 19.2%. Agriculture accounts for only about 1.5% of GDP.Europeans and Boers (whose ancestors were Dutch colonists) played a big role in the culture and formation of the Republic of South Africa, perhaps because this country, along with Namibia (also under the rule of South Africa until 1990), is the most highly developed and Europeanized in all of Africa.The majority of the population works in the service sector, which accounts for about 67.4% of GDP (finance, insurance, hotel, restaurant business, trade). Then there is industry, which gives up to 30.3% today (mining, processing, chemical). The production of agricultural products brings only 2.4% of GDP (livestock, fruits, sugar, cereals, etc.). The country is rich in metals (gold, platinum, copper, iron), diamonds, manganese. The main trading partners are China, the USA, the EU, and Japan.Performing an analysis on a pair requires a clear understanding of what affects its constituent currencies – the US dollar and the South African rand. The United States has a powerful and much more diversified economy, unlike South Africa, which is highly developed only from the point of view of Africa, and on a global scale looks quite average.The Rand is a commodity currency that depends very much on world prices for gold (primarily), as well as diamonds, platinum, copper, iron, and manganese.Read more: USD/CNH - description, characteristics, forecasts and feautures of pairIn addition, today the most important factors affecting USD/ZAR are:Central Bank rates of both countries;Economic indicators;Trade balances (especially South Africa, half of whose GDP is exports);Oil prices;Labor market (South Africa has serious problems with high unemployment in the country).In addition, to analyze the pair, it is necessary to take into account the situation on the diamond market, since South Africa is one of the world's largest exporters of these precious stones, as well as the demand for engineering products, since both the United States and South Africa are major producers of it.It is also possible to predict the dynamics of this pair by focusing on the correlation with the charts of other financial instruments, in particular, with USD/RUB on D1, the similarity is up to 90.5% in some years. The pair has a strong inverse correlation with the NASDAQ index (NAS100) -90.5%,USD/THB – 89%;EUR/ZAR – 87,2%;EUR/NOK – 85,7%;EUR/PLN – 83,9%;USD/NOK – 83,7%;EUR/AUD – 83,3%;USD/SGD – 82%;EUR/SEK – 81,2%;USD/JPY – 81%.As noted above, due to the high dependence of the rand rate (and the dollar, too) on gold prices, there is a high degree of inverse correlation with the charts XAU/USD – -88.8% and XAU/EUR – -88%, and another example can be given: AUD/USD – -87.6%; XAG/USD – -86.4%; AUD/SDG – -85.6%; XAG/EUR – -83.9%; GER30 – -83.2%; US500 – -82.9% and finally AUD/CHF – -81.9%. There is a certain coincidence on other charts, but to a much lesser extent, and these data will be quite enough to make a forecast.Read more: USD/DKK: exchange rate, online chart, signals & forecasts for todayFeatures of the currency pairThere is no way to trade standard strategies with the levels of take profits and stop losses that are familiar in application to the main pairs on such an active instrument - it will take out stops instantly. Accordingly, they must be placed either large enough or, attention, not at all, but for this you will have to trade with a huge deposit and low leverage, otherwise, instead of a profitable investment, you can get a Margin Call.A large, by current standards, refinancing rate of the Reserve Bank of South Africa – 7%, against – 0.75% of the US Federal Reserve, gives excellent prospects for transactions on the carry-trade trading strategy (buying high-yield currency for low-yield) on upward trends. In August, October and November 2016, such strong medium-term upward impulses were ...