Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and AUD/USD for Friday, March 14, 2025

GBP/USD: lower inflation in the US supports the poundThe pound sterling is strengthening in the GBP/USD pair, correcting against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and trading near the 1.2960 mark.Additional support for the British currency is provided by macroeconomic factors: tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), UK GDP data is expected to be published. Experts predict a decrease in growth rates from 0.4% to 0.1% in monthly terms and a weakening from 1.5% in annual terms, which may strengthen the dovish mood of the Bank of England before the March 20 meeting. In addition, the regulator expanded its support for the banking sector, replacing weekly financing with semi—annual financing and allocating a record 2,127 trillion pounds as part of the REPO operation, the maximum amount since 2020.The US dollar is trying to regain its position, trading around 103.50 on the USDX index. The main focus of investors is yesterday's report on inflation in the United States: the consumer price index in February slowed from 0.4% to 0.2% in monthly terms and from 3.0% to 2.8% in annual terms, while the base indicator decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%. This dynamic reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will keep the rate at 4.25–4.50% at its meeting next week.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2760.USD/CHF: the pair maintains a sideways trendThe US dollar shows mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair during the Asian session, holding near the level of 0.8815: the activity of market participants remains low, despite the data on inflation in the United States published the day before.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will focus on inflation in the US manufacturing sector: according to forecasts, the annual producer price index for February will slow down from 3.5% to 3.3%, and the monthly indicator will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. At the same time, the base index excluding food and energy resources is likely to remain at 3.6% in annual terms and 0.3% on a monthly basis. The markets also expect data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: initial applications for the week ending March 7 may increase from 221.0 thousand to 225.0 thousand, and repeat applications (for the week of February 28) may increase from 1,897 million to 1,900 million. On Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March will be published: experts expect a decrease from 64.7 to 63.4 points.In Switzerland, February data on producer and import price indices will be released at 09:30 (GMT+2): a moderate monthly increase is expected from 0.1% to 0.2%, and an annual fix at -0.3%. Probably, these indicators will not have a significant impact on the future steps of the Swiss National Bank in the field of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.8827, 0.8851, 0.8875, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730.USD/JPY: Dollar decline is gaining momentumThe US dollar is showing a decline in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting positions after two days of growth, which allowed updating local highs from March 6. At the moment, quotes are testing the 147.85 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants expect new macroeconomic triggers to appear.Investors in Japan continue to analyze the revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024, published the day before. According to updated estimates, the indicator increased by only 0.6% in quarterly terms instead of the expected 0.7%, and the annual dynamics was adjusted from 2.8% to 2.2%. The slowdown in economic growth creates additional challenges for the Bank of Japan, which is considering a tougher monetary policy, but faces risks related to the instability of the national economy.Resistance levels: 148.55, 149.19, 150.00, 150.50.Support levels: 148.00, 147.00, 146.00, 145.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move in a downward trend, holding slightly above the level of $ 70.00 per barrel.In the middle of the week, the market showed a slight increase against the background of the publication of reports on fuel reserves in the United States, but the general vector of movement is determined by the statements of OPEC + about plans to gradually increase production. According to February data, the countries participating in the agreement, with the exception of states exempt from quotas, increased production by 313.0 thousand barrels per day, bringing it to 35.5 million barrels per day. This exceeds the originally planned volumes by 67.0 thousand barrels, and the main increase occurred in Iraq (130.0 thousand barrels per day), Nigeria (60.0 thousand) and Gabon (50.0 thousand).Data on oil reserves in the United States turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded an increase in reserves of 4.247 million barrels after a decrease of 1.455 million barrels a week earlier. In turn, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, compared with 1.448 million barrels a week earlier.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.80.Support levels: 68.80, 64.70.

EUR/USD: technical analysis indicates continued growthThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 1.0902 mark against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to the results of the meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, seeing them as a possible step towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but macroeconomic statistics turned out to be ambiguous and could not become a strong driver of price growth.Thus, German imports in January showed a slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%, while exports moved to negative dynamics, falling from 2.5% to -2.5%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 20.7 billion euros to 16.0 billion euros. At the same time, industrial production accelerated from -1.5% to 2.0% in monthly terms and from -2.26% to -1.49% in annual terms over the same period. The head of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, expressed support for the initiatives of the future government aimed at easing budget constraints and creating a special fund in the amount of 500.0 billion euros to finance defense and infrastructure projects. At the same time, he stressed that for Germany's long-term economic growth, it is necessary to focus on increasing the supply of labor, reforming the energy sector, reducing bureaucratic barriers and reducing tax pressure on businesses.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0680.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is holding at 0.6270After rising by 1.44% over the past week, the AUD/USD pair is consolidating at the 0.6270 support, awaiting the February US inflation data, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT+2).Forecasts suggest that the consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, which may increase pressure on the US dollar if the Fed signals a softer monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at the level of March 19 is 97.0%, and its reduction by 25 basis points in May is 40.9%.On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will publish data on building permits for January: an increase of 6.3% on a monthly basis is expected, which may support the Australian currency. If the indicator is confirmed, it will be a signal of economic recovery after a prolonged recession since the end of 2023.Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6270, 0.6147.Silver market analysisAfter a short-term consolidation below the 32.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair resumed its growth, which is due to the unique structure of demand for silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, this metal is in demand both in industry and among investors, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in market sentiment. An additional support factor was the growth in the number of Silver Institute participants: seven new companies joined the organization in 2024, and three more in the first two months of 2025, including Skeena Gold & Silver, Silver Tiger Metals, and TCA S.p.A.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirms the increased interest in silver. In recent reporting periods, the number of manufacturers' long positions increased by 0.453 thousand, while sellers reduced volumes by 8,192 thousand contracts. The balance in the segment of positions secured by real capital remains on the side of the bulls — 47,823 thousand against 13,620 thousand for the bears, which indicates a high level of confidence in the asset.Resistance levels: 33.10, 34.80.Support levels: 32.30, 30.80.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning trading, WTI Crude Oil continues to strengthen, developing the growth momentum that was formed the day before, and is testing the 66.30 level for an upward breakout. However, traders remain cautious, preferring to wait for the publication of US inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2), which may affect the dynamics of quotations.According to preliminary forecasts, the core consumer price index for February will slow down to 3.2% in annual terms (against 3.3% earlier) and 0.3% on a monthly basis (from 0.4%), while the overall index will decrease from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 0.5% to 0.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the dollar's reaction may be restrained, as investors are more focused on the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration. This month, 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on a number of Chinese goods, have already entered into force, and new restrictions on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States are expected in the near future.Additional pressure on the market was exerted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed an increase in oil reserves by 4.247 million barrels for the week of March 7 after a previous decrease of 1.455 million barrels, while experts predicted an increase of only 2.1 million barrels. At 15:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released, which, according to forecasts, will also reflect an increase in reserves by 2.1 million barrels after a previous increase of 3.614 million barrels. Additionally, the agency adjusted the forecast of oil production in 2025, increasing it by 20 thousand. barrels per day — up to 13.61 million barrels.Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.50, 68.25, 69.00.Support levels: 66.00, 64.96, 64.00, 63.00.

EUR/USD: ECB cut the rate by a quarter of a percentThe EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend at 1.0807, showing the most significant weekly growth since November 2022.The main driver of the strengthening of the European currency was the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease monetary policy. The deposit rate was lowered to 2.50%, and the key interest rate dropped from 2.90% to 2.65%, which was a reaction to the easing of inflationary pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that these measures are aimed at stimulating economic growth, but did not rule out that in April the regulator may take a pause in changing rates due to the uncertainty of the foreign trade policy of the administration of US President Donald Trump.Additional support for the single currency is provided by the prospects of increased government spending on defense and infrastructure projects, which, according to experts, can stimulate economic growth in the eurozone. Nevertheless, such measures may increase inflationary pressures. The European Commission has already presented a program providing loans for 150 billion euros to finance defense initiatives in EU countries.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0970.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0600.GBP/USD: traders' attention is focused on the labor market in the United StatesThe pound sterling shows mixed dynamics in the GBP/USD pair during morning trading, remaining near the local highs of November 11 and testing the 1.2880 level for a downward breakdown. Investors are being cautious in anticipation of the emergence of new factors that could set the direction for the movement of quotations.The key event of the day will be the publication of the February report on the US labor market at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts expect an increase in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 143.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, while the average hourly wage is likely to maintain annual growth at 4.1%, but in monthly terms may slow down from 0.5% to 0.3%. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.0%. On Wednesday, ADP has already published data on employment in the private sector, which disappointed the markets with a sharp drop from 186.0 thousand to 77.0 thousand. The statistics on applications for unemployment benefits received yesterday turned out to be contradictory: initial applications decreased to 221.0 thousand with a forecast of 235.0 thousand, and repeat applications increased to 1.897 million against expectations of 1.880 million.Hugh Pill, an economist at the Bank of England, expressed doubt about the possibility of a significant reduction in interest rates in the future, given persistent inflation. According to him, monetary policy should remain restrained in the face of uncertainty caused by the tariff policy of US President Donald Trump, fluctuations in energy prices and plans to index taxes in the new UK budget. The Bank of England survey results showed that business inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased from 3.0% to 3.1%, and companies plan to raise prices for goods and services by 4.0%, higher than previous forecasts of 3.9%.Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2847, 1.2800, 1.2747, 1.2690.USD/CAD: Canada appealed to the WTO because of Washington's dutiesDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair is showing recovery after three days of decline, during which quotes reached their lowest values since February 24. Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4300 level, while market participants expect new factors to appear that can set the direction of movement.The Canadian authorities have contacted the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a request for consultations on the issue of trade duties imposed by the United States: 25.0% on non—energy goods and 10.0% on energy. US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held telephone talks after Ottawa announced retaliatory tariffs on American goods worth 155.0 billion Canadian dollars (107.4 billion US dollars). Earlier, Trudeau said that Washington's actions are aimed at undermining the country's economy and could lead to its "absorption," adding that Canada "will never become the 51st state." According to the latest data, some goods, including automotive products, will be subject to new duties only in a month, which will allow Ottawa to temporarily refrain from introducing the second part of retaliatory measures.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.USDX: US dollar index shows the most powerful bearish trend in monthsThe US dollar index (USDX) shows a slight decline in morning trading, continuing the most powerful "bearish" trend of recent months, formed since the beginning of the week. Quotes are again testing the 104.00 level for a downward breakdown, while the index managed to update the lows from November 5 the day before. The decline in the USDX exchange rate is due to several factors. First of all, the growth of the European currency was spurred by the announcement of significant investments in German defense and infrastructure. The German authorities have also eased the limit on government borrowing, which has led to higher yields on long-term bonds.Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by a change in the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump. Some goods from Canada and Mexico were temporarily exempt from new duties of 25%, which gave US trading partners a reason to slow down with retaliatory measures. Canada will refrain from imposing the second part of the "mirror sanctions" until April, and Mexico has promised to provide its response by the end of the week. In addition, market participants continue to reassess expectations about the policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Against the background of mixed macroeconomic data and pressure from the Trump administration, it is predicted that the regulator will limit itself to two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of 2025.Resistance levels: 104.50, 105.00, 105.30, 105.58.Support levels: 104.00, 103.60, 103.30, 103.00.

EUR/USD: ECB member Schnabel explains the economic weakness of the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, holding at the level of 1.0460, despite the weakening of the US dollar. Macroeconomic statistics remain weak and do not contribute to the strengthening of the euro. In January, the consumer price index in the eurozone decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, which led to an annual increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. However, core inflation slowed by 0.9%, remaining at 2.7%. This creates the conditions for further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as economic growth continues to slow down. In Germany, the recession is intensifying: in the fourth quarter, GDP decreased from 0.1% to -0.2% month-on-month and from -0.3% to -0.2% year-on-year, indicating a deterioration in the economic situation.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by a decrease in the German consumer climate index from GfK Group, which fell from -22.6 to -24.7 points in March, while analysts had forecast -21.7 points. The reason for the weakening of the indicator was the political instability in the country. Meanwhile, ECB board member Isabelle Schnabel said that the main reason for the economic weakness of the eurozone remains structural problems, and not the high cost of borrowing, which, according to some experts, limits lending and slows down economic growth.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0240.USD/CHF: Bullish momentum is gaining strength, the dollar is strengtheningThe USD/CHF pair continues to grow steadily during the morning trading session, developing an upward movement that began the day before after a rebound from the local lows of December 23, 2024. Quotes are approaching the level of 0.8970, testing the level for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for the release of important macroeconomic data from the United States that can set the further direction of movement.Investors' main attention today is focused on the publication at 15:30 (GMT+2) of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as on January statistics on orders for durable goods. The growth rate of the US economy is expected to remain at 2.3%, while orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after a decrease of -2.2% a month earlier. The indicator, excluding defense and aviation contracts, is projected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will also be published today: it is assumed that the number of initial applications for the week ending February 21 will increase from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the period up to February 14) will remain at 1.869 million. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will monitor the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the personal consumption expenditures index. According to forecasts, the base rate in annual terms may slow down from 2.8% to 2.6%, while on a monthly basis it is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%. At the same time, the broader index is likely to decline from 2.6% to 2.3%, while maintaining growth at 0.3%. These data may affect the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy and the further dynamics of the dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident of success of Erdogan's reformsThe USD/TRY pair remains in a sideways movement, trading near 36.4500 and the recent high of 36.5400, updated at the end of last week. The activity of dollar buyers has decreased against the background of the current macroeconomic background, however, rising yields on US Treasury bonds support demand for the US currency. At the same time, traders take profits by closing some of their long positions, which limits the potential for further appreciation.The lira may strengthen if the forecasts of the Central Bank of Turkey turn out to be correct, but the economic situation remains difficult. Annual inflation slowed to 42.12% in January, but against the background of an increase in the minimum wage, monthly consumer price growth was 5.03%. Investors also drew attention to the refusal of the authorities from the planned increase in the cost of medical services, which may ease inflationary pressure in the coming months: according to preliminary forecasts, the indicator may decrease to 3.0% in February. Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that the ongoing structural reform program presented by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the congress of the ruling Justice and Development Party should help stabilize prices, strengthen budget discipline and reduce the current account deficit. The Head of State noted that over the past 22 years, the volume of industrial production with high added value has grown from $95.0 billion to $320.0 billion, and in terms of purchasing power parity, Turkey ranked 11th in the world and 4th in the European Union in 2023.Resistance levels: 36.5000, 36.5406, 36.6000, 36.6500.Support levels: 36.4000, 36.3189, 36.2000, 36.1000.Silver market analysisSilver quotes are showing a downward movement in morning trading, declining again after a slight increase the day before, which temporarily allowed quotes to retreat from the lows of February 11, updated on Tuesday. The asset is testing support at 31.60, being under pressure from the strengthening US dollar. The US currency is supported by technical factors, rising Treasury yields, as well as President Donald Trump's tough tariff policy, which promotes capital outflow into defensive assets. An additional impact is the growing industrial demand, especially in the renewable energy sector, as well as the projected shortage of silver supplies against the background of positive forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for global economic growth in 2025.Investors are awaiting key macroeconomic reports from the United States today, which are scheduled to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). Among them are GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 and information on durable goods orders for January. Analysts' forecasts suggest that economic growth will remain at 2.3%, and orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after falling by -2.2% a month earlier. Excluding aviation and defense contracts, the indicator is expected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. The market will also pay attention to statistics on unemployment benefits: the number of initial applications for the week of February 21 is expected to grow from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the week of February 14) will remain at 1.869 million.The correction in the precious metals market continues, as confirmed by the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the regulator, net speculative positions in silver increased from 49.7 thousand to 54.5 thousand in a week. The balance of market participants has also shifted towards the bulls: their positions secured by real money have increased to 59,139 thousand, while the bears remain at 19,737 thousand. Over the past week, traders have opened an additional 4,380 thousand. purchase contracts, while sales increased by only 0.030 thousand, which indicates continued interest in the asset even against the background of a short-term decline.Resistance levels: 32.00, 32.27, 32.60, 33.00.Support levels: 31.56, 31.30, 31.00, 30.77.

EUR/USD: bulls get a chance to update local peaksDuring Asian trading, the European currency remains near the 1.0489 mark, correcting after the recent update of local highs on January 27. The market is showing restrained dynamics, as at the moment there are no important macroeconomic factors that can set the direction of movement. Investors focused on the possible resumption of tariff restrictions, which US President Donald Trump announced at the beginning of the month.Starting on March 4, 25% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, which were previously postponed for a month as part of preliminary agreements, will come into force. At the same time, the introduction of similar measures against EU products is not excluded, as Trump has repeatedly accused Brussels of unfair trade policy towards the United States. Experts believe that pressure on the European Union may increase in the framework of negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, given the resistance of individual countries in the region. In addition, the US president has repeatedly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, which also causes controversy in international relations.The market's focus remains on the comments of European officials, which may give signals about the future monetary policy of the ECB. Pierre Wunsch, a member of the regulator's governing council and head of the National Bank of Belgium, called for a cautious approach to adjusting interest rates in order to avoid the risk of an excessive decline in the indicator. In turn, Joachim Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank, noted that price dynamics allow us to expect the target inflation rate to be reached this year. In this regard, market participants predict that the ECB will cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time at the next meeting, as inflation, which exceeded double digits after the events of 2022, has now stabilized just above 2.0%. Additionally, traders drew attention to the final German GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024: the country's economy shrank by -0.2% in quarterly terms and by -0.4% year-on-year, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654.Support levels: 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342, 1.0300.GBP/USD: the market expects a rate cut of 75 bp during the yearThe GBP/USD pair shows a downward trend during the morning trading session, returning to a corrective decline. The exchange rate is testing support at 1.2640, while traders expect new factors to appear that could affect further movement. Market participants continue to analyze the macroeconomic statistics for last Friday, assessing its impact on the prospects of the British currency.The January retail sales data in the UK turned out to be higher than expected, which supported the strengthening of the pound. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 1.7% after falling by -0.6% in December, although only 0.3% growth was forecast. On an annualized basis, sales slowed from 2.8% to 1.0%, but exceeded the projected 0.6%. Excluding fuel, growth was 2.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, which was also higher than expected at 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. However, business activity showed mixed results: the S&P Global index in the industrial sector in February fell from 48.3 to 46.4 points against forecasts of 48.4 points, while in the service sector the indicator strengthened from 50.9 to 51.1 points, exceeding preliminary estimates of 50.8 points.The issue of the rate of interest rate reduction by the Bank of England remains in the spotlight, as stated by the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra. During her speech at Birkbeck, she noted that a gradual reduction in the cost of borrowing does not necessarily mean a standard reduction of 25 basis points. At the same time, according to a survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters, most experts predict that the British regulator will continue to ease monetary policy, reducing the rate by 75 basis points during the year.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2690, 1.2747, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.NZD/USD: the pair is preparing for continued growth after a pullbackDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair fell back to around 0.5710 after steadily rising 3.5% in January and February. Despite the correction, the overall macroeconomic background remains favorable for the continuation of the upward movement. According to published statistics, the core retail sales index in New Zealand for the fourth quarter increased by 1.4% on a quarterly basis, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The previous data was revised upward from -0.8% to -0.6%, and total sales for the same period increased from 0.0% to 0.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.5%.Additional support for the national currency is provided by the prospect of further easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The regulator has already lowered the rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%, and, according to the head of the department, Adrian Orr, it is likely to reach 3.00% by the end of the year. This means that at least two more stages of decline are possible in the coming months. However, the current weakening of the New Zealand dollar is due to the strengthening of the US currency, which was the market's reaction to statements by US President Donald Trump about the introduction of new duties on copper imports. These measures contribute to the growth of demand for the dollar, putting additional pressure on the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.WTI oil market analysisWTI crude oil prices show a multidirectional movement during the morning trading session, consolidating around 69.00 and remaining at the lowest values since December 23, updated the day before. Expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are putting pressure on the market, which reduces demand for defensive assets, including commodities. The administration of US President Donald Trump is actively promoting initiatives to end hostilities, while simultaneously taking steps to restore diplomatic ties with Russia. The first meetings of the delegations have already taken place in Saudi Arabia, and experts believe that if agreements are reached, a partial revision of the sanctions policy is possible, including easing restrictions on Russian energy exports via sea routes and pipeline systems.Additional pressure on oil is exerted by the resumption of exports of raw materials from Iraqi Kurdistan. On Monday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced that supplies would resume after the final approval of technical details with Ankara. According to experts, transportation volumes will amount to about 185.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market and limit the growth potential of oil prices.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 71.62.Support levels: 68.30, 67.00, 66.00, 65.00.

USD/CHF: quarterly employment in Switzerland in the spotlightThe USD/CHF pair is in the correction phase, trading around 0.8969, with the potential for further decline amid strong macroeconomic data from Switzerland.A stable labor market remains one of the key factors supporting the franc. In the fourth quarter, employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by 0.9%, equivalent to 48.3 thousand new jobs. At the same time, the number of open vacancies decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, which indicates a high level of job occupancy. The share of companies planning to expand their staff was 11.7%, while only 4.7% of employers intend to reduce staff. This stability in the labor market provides the Swiss National Bank with additional arguments in favor of further lowering the interest rate, which is likely to reach 0.00% by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9120.Support levels: 0.8940, 0.8810.AUD/USD: the exchange rate moved to correction before the inflation reportThe Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting the previous two-day decline. After a pullback from local highs on December 12, the exchange rate is testing the 0.6350 level, trying to gain a foothold higher, while traders expect new factors that can affect the dynamics. Meanwhile, the sale of shares of leading Australian banks has stopped after eight sessions of decline caused by the first decrease in interest rates since November 2020 and an increase in overdue debt. In particular, the capitalization of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia has decreased by about 25 billion Australian dollars during this time. The key event for the market will be the publication of January inflation data in Australia, which is scheduled for tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the annual consumer price index may rise from 2.5% to 2.6%, which may support the national currency. Investors' attention will also be focused on statistics on completed construction: the indicator for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 1.0%.The final report on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be released on the US market on Thursday at 15:30 (GMT+2), and experts do not predict a revision of the value from 2.3%. On the same day, data on applications for unemployment benefits and January orders for durable goods are expected to be published, which may grow by 2.5% after a December decline of -2.2%. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will assess the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Analysts expect a slowdown in the base indicator from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year, while monthly growth may accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3%. The overall index is also expected to reach 2.5%, adding 0.3% over the month.Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6408, 0.6450, 0.6478.Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, gold is showing a decline, rolling back from historical highs recorded the day before and testing support at 2935.75. Pressure on gold is exerted by a decrease in geopolitical tensions associated with the likely progress of peace talks on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The weakening demand for protective assets contributes to the reorientation of investors to riskier instruments, which further limits the metal's growth potential.Market participants' attention is also focused on the latest economic data from the United States. According to the S&P Global report, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector rose from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding the projected 51.5 points, while the services sector saw a sharp decline from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points. Additional pressure on the dollar was exerted by a decrease in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in January from 67.8 to 64.7 points, despite neutral forecasts. Also, data on the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index was released yesterday, which fell from 0.18 to -0.03 points in January, reflecting a weakening in economic activity. The December housing price index from S&P/Case-Shiller will be published today at 16:00 (GMT+2), and at 17:00 (GMT+2) and 17:30 (GMT+2), markets expect the publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. which can set the further direction of the dollar's movement and, accordingly, affect the dynamics of gold.Resistance levels: 2956.19, 2980.00, 3000.00, 3025.00.Support levels: 2920.00, 2900.00, 2875.00, 2858.06.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure, correcting in a downward movement and trading just below the 75.00 mark. The market is influenced by two factors at once: the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, which implies possible changes in import duties, as well as the prospects for an increase in oil supplies from Iraq. These circumstances increase uncertainty and create negative expectations among investors.Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani announced that the transportation of raw materials from Kurdistan to Turkey will resume next week. The cost of the supplied oil will be $ 16.0 per barrel, and the state-owned SOMO company will handle its sale. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of supplies in the first months will range from 300.0 to 500.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market.Additional attention of traders is focused on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on fuel reserves, which will be released today at 23:30 (GMT+2). Experts predict that after the previous increase of 3.339 million barrels, the figure will change slightly. Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+2), data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published, and if they confirm the positive dynamics of last week, when stocks increased by 4,633 million barrels, this may strengthen the current trend in the market.Resistance levels: 75.30, 78.00.Support levels: 73.70, 70.70.

EUR/USD: the market is waiting for the results of the Bundestag electionsThe weakening of the dollar contributes to the strengthening of the euro, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading around 1.0518. The European currency was supported by news about the victory of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) in the Bundestag elections, where they received 28.6% of the vote. The second place was taken by the Alternative for Germany with a score of 20.8%, while the party of the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz scored only 16.4%. The outcome of the vote could lead to significant changes in the economic and political spheres, including possible fiscal reform promoted by the CDU/CSU. In addition, the election results will have an impact on the EU's position on the policy of US President Donald Trump, in particular on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and security in Europe.The macroeconomic data, which is expected to be published today at 11:00 (GMT+2), may have an additional impact on the pair's exchange rate. According to forecasts, the consumer price index in January will decrease by -0.3% after rising by 0.4% a month earlier, which in annual terms may accelerate inflation to 2.5% from the previous 2.4%. The base rate is likely to remain at 2.7%, which exceeds the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2.0%, but is not yet sufficient to review the monetary policy easing strategy.Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0710.Support levels: 1.0470, 1.0290.USD/CHF: Swiss Labor Market report in focusIn the morning trading, the USD/CHF pair shows a moderate decline, updating the lows of February 23 and testing support around 0.8960. Market activity remains subdued, as participants expect new factors to appear that can set the direction of movement.On Monday at 09:30 (GMT+2), data on employment changes for the fourth quarter will be released in Switzerland, where the indicator previously increased from 5.499 million to 5.528 million, continuing the upward trend. On Thursday at 10:00 (GMT+2), investors will receive updated statistics on the country's GDP, and forecasts indicate a slowdown in growth from 2.0% to 1.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% in quarterly terms, which may weaken the franc's position. At 12:00 (GMT+2), the market's attention will switch to eurozone inflation indicators: the consumer price index is expected to be 2.5%, and core inflation is expected to be 2.7%. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports to the United States increased sharply in January, partially offsetting lower shipments to China and India. The volume of shipments increased from 64.2 to 192.9 tons, which is the highest figure since 2012.The US currency is reacting to the latest S&P Global business activity data. The manufacturing sector index increased from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding expectations of 51.5 points, while the same indicator in the service sector fell from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which was lower than the projected 53.0 points. For the first time since February 2023, the value fell below the key mark of 50.0 points, which may indicate the negative consequences of the Fed's long-term high-interest rate policy. However, market participants are still in no hurry to adjust expectations for monetary policy easing, sticking to the forecast of two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.GBP/USD: the pair gained a foothold in the target area of 1.2687–1.2659Due to the strong economic performance of the UK, the GBP/USD pair has confidently gained a foothold above the resistance of 1.2525, which indicates the continuation of an upward correction with the potential for growth to 1.2785.Employment statistics for the last three months showed an increase of 107.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 35.0 thousand. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, which was better than expected at 4.5%. Inflation also exceeded forecasts: the consumer price index in January reached 3.0% in annual terms against the expected 2.8% and the previous 2.5%, and on a monthly basis the decrease was -0.1% instead of the expected -0.3%. An acceleration in price growth may force the Bank of England to suspend monetary policy easing, which supports the pound. In addition, a stable labor market suggests that the interest rate will remain high for longer than previously predicted.Resistance levels: 1.2785, 1.3023.Support levels: 1.2525, 1.2300.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada warns about risks to the economyThe US dollar is showing a moderate decline in the USD/CAD pair in morning trading, correcting after a sharp rise on Friday. Quotes are testing support around 1.4190, while market participants are assessing the latest macroeconomic data on business activity and waiting for new factors that can set the direction of movement.Last week, Canada released December retail sales figures, which showed solid growth. On a monthly basis, volumes increased by 2.5% after a modest 0.2% increase in November, exceeding analysts' expectations of 1.6%. Excluding car sales, the figure also beat forecasts, rising 2.7% after a 0.7% decline, while only 1.8% was expected. On Friday, February 28, investors' attention will switch to the publication of GDP data for December and the fourth quarter: growth of 0.3% in monthly terms is forecast after a decrease of 0.2% earlier, as well as quarterly dynamics of 0.3% and annual growth of 1.0%.The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, noted that the regulator has limited opportunities to neutralize the effects of the US administration's trade measures, unlike the period of fighting inflation after the pandemic. According to him, the Canadian economy is unlikely to recover as rapidly as after the crisis of 2020-2022: growth is possible, but production will remain below previous levels. On February 10, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports from March 12, including shipments from Canada. In addition, a drop in export earnings due to the sanctions policy may hit consumption levels, while retaliatory tariffs will only increase inflationary risks in the United States.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050.

EUR/USD: week closes with mixed movementsIn Asian trading, the euro showed uncertainty: at the beginning of the week, it was under pressure, which led to an update of the February 13 lows at 1.0400 for the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, yesterday the European currency regained a significant part of its losses, approaching the 1.0500 mark, near which trading ended. Currently, the market's attention is focused on statements by representatives of financial departments trying to give the market signals about their future decisions in the field of monetary policy. For example, Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB governing council, said that the regulator should not interfere with lowering rates, since January inflation at 2.5% is still moving towards the 2.0% target planned for this year. However, other officials have expressed concerns about a possible acceleration in price increases due to rising energy prices and harsh tariff measures from Republicans in the White House, while others are concerned that the weakness of the eurozone economy could slow down inflation below the desired level.The position of the US dollar weakened yesterday under the influence of the publication of new economic data confirming that it is premature to talk about the end of the crisis. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week to February 14 increased from 214 thousand to 219 thousand, with expectations of 215 thousand, and repeated applications on February 7 increased from 1.845 million to 1.869 million, although the forecast was 1.87 million. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's industrial business climate index also disappointed the market, falling from 44.3 to 18.1 points. Data on the construction of new homes in the United States turned out to be no less alarming: after an increase of 16.1% in December, the number of bookmarks in January decreased by 9.8%, reaching only 1,366 million instead of the projected 1,400 million. In addition, the focus was on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, published on Wednesday, where the authorities indicated concern about a possible acceleration of inflation, which many interpreted as a signal of a slowdown in monetary policy easing. Nevertheless, the initial plan for 2025 remains in place, which assumes only two rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654, 1.0700.Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342.USD/CHF: employment data gives NBS reason to continue easingIn Asian trading, the USD/CHF pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 0.8978 level and demonstrating the potential for further decline amid favorable economic reports on the employment and real estate markets in Switzerland.Data released the day before showed that employment in the fourth quarter amounted to 5.387 million people, an increase of 0.6% compared to last year. At the same time, the number of working men increased by 0.4%, women — by 0.8%, and the total number of employees increased by 0.3%. Despite the increase in the share of unemployed to 4.4% from 4.0% a year earlier, the overall unemployment rate remained at the same level (2.7%). This gives the Swiss National Bank additional reasons to maintain a soft monetary policy at the next meeting.The improvement in the state of the economy is also confirmed by a significant reduction in the budget deficit to 80.0 million francs, although a deficit of 2.645 billion francs was previously expected. This result indicates the successful repayment of debts incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was made possible by reducing emergency expenses, in particular, postponing payments of state aid to Swiss Railways (SBB), as well as by increasing tax revenues, which exceeded the forecast by 1.2 billion francs.Support levels: 0.8960, 0.8820.Resistance levels: 0.9040, 0.91 70.AUD/USD: employment in Australia remains resilient to RBA measuresThe AUD/USD pair is trading with a correction near the 0.6396 mark, taking advantage of the weak dynamics of the US currency, due to which the Australian dollar retains short-term growth potential.Recent economic statistics confirm experts' expectations that the easing of the monetary policy of the Australian regulator is unlikely to last long. Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.1% and an increase in the total number of unemployed by 500 people to 615.1 thousand in January, total employment improved by 33,700 jobs, amounting to 14.616 million, which is 0.2% more than in December. The ratio of working citizens to the total population also increased from 64.4% to 64.6%, while the number of full-time employees increased by 19.9 thousand, reaching 10.083 million people. Thus, the employment market in Australia demonstrates significant resilience to the measures of the Reserve Bank of the country.Support levels: 0.6340, 0.6190.Resistance levels: 0.6430, 0.6560.NZD/USD: New Zealand reported a deficit of NZD 486.0 million for the monthThe NZD/USD pair has been gradually strengthening since the beginning of the month, trying to stay above the 0.5737 level (Murray's mark [6/8]). During the current week, the movement was multidirectional: initially, there was a decrease after the announcement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy decisions, but soon the currency was able to recover and return to previous positions.The regulator decided to reduce the key interest rate by 50 basis points, lowering it to 3.75%, and confirmed its intention to continue its soft policy to stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. However, according to the head of the RBNZ, Adrian Orr, negative scenarios are possible due to the trade initiatives of the US republican administration. He added that the rate could be lowered to about 3.0% by the end of the year, suggesting at least two more steps down in the near future. At the same time, the positions of the US Federal Reserve do not allow investors to make confident forecasts: the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed that the US regulator plans to slow down the pace of monetary policy easing until inflation shows a convincing decline to the target 2.0%, and the details of the US trade strategy are not clear.Resistance levels: 0.5859, 0.5981.Support levels: 0.5615, 0.5493, 0.5432.