AUD/USD: cancellation of the asset stimulates sales
The AUD/USD currency pair shows a changeable movement, being at the level of 0.6556 due to encouraging economic data from Australia.
There is an increase in average weekly and full-time wages by 4.5%, and the total salary for both full-time and part-time workers, taking into account seasonal adjustments, increased by 3.9% compared to last year, indicating favorable changes in the labor market. In light of these data, the latest Bloomberg survey of leading economists on the future steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows that most expect an interest rate cut to 4.1% in the third quarter, while previous forecasts suggested changes no earlier than the fourth quarter.
- Resistance levels: 0.6580, 0.6630.
- Support levels: 0.6530, 0.6450.
USD/CAD: the gross pair is gaining momentum on the "big" trend posted on Friday
During Asian trading, the USD/CAD currency pair continues the smoothly bullish trend set last Friday, while trying the 1.3500 level for an upward breakout. Traders are looking forward to new market catalysts.
The focus of investors' attention today is data from the housing market: in December, new home sales increased by 8.0%, reaching 0.664 million, while expectations for January indicate a more moderate increase to 0.680 million. On Tuesday, information on consumer confidence in the United States for February and statistics on orders for durable goods are expected on the agenda, where a correction of the indicator excluding transport is expected from 0.5% to 0.2% in January. Statistics on personal consumption expenditures for the fourth quarter, which will be released on Wednesday, will provide the US Federal Reserve with an opportunity to assess the effectiveness of measures to reduce inflation in the country, given that the previous increase in the index was 1.7% on a quarterly basis.
- Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700.
- Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3350.
USD/CHF: narrowing of the trade corridor reflects market uncertainty in the short term
The gross USD/CHF pair shows moderate growth, stabilizing at about 0.8810, while activity in the gross market decreases in anticipation of new intellectual incentives.
Investors are actively analyzing the possibility of lowering interest rates on loans from the US Federal Reserve in the foreseeable future. The results of the January meeting of the authority were recently presented, which confirmed the expected moderate tone in the statements of the leadership. Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee expressed concern that an early easing of monetary policy could lead to more serious consequences for the economy than the continuation of a policy of high interest rates. In the context of the current slowdown in inflation, the agency expresses doubts about its further reduction to the target level of 2.0-3.0%, emphasizing the importance not only of following formal figures, but also of a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the country.
The Swiss franc received support after the publication of labor market statistics on Friday, February 23, when an increase in employment in the fourth quarter of 2023 was recorded from 5.465 million to 5.488 million people. On Thursday, at 10:00 GMT +2, the market will focus on analyzing data on GDP dynamics for the same period, expecting a quarterly decline from 0.3% to 0.2% and an annual increase from 0.3% to 0.5%, which will indicate the stability of the Swiss economy.
- Resistance levels: 0.8820, 0.8850, 0.8885, 0.8900.
- Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8782, 0.8760, 0.8730.
GBP/USD: stabilization of the British pound after the entry into force of the strengthening agreement
The GBP/USD currency pair is showing stability around the 1.2660 mark, following a limited rise in the previous week, in the context of traders' expectations regarding a possible change in the monetary policy rate by the US Federal Reserve, based on data from the January meeting minutes. In the document, representatives of the Fed stated their preference for an approach that restrains rate cuts and expressed concerns about premature policy easing. This information confirmed market assumptions that any adjustments could be postponed until a later date, which contributed to the strengthening of the dollar against major currencies. Now investors are leaning towards the version of the first rate change in June, although forecasts are constantly being adjusted depending on incoming information.
Recently published economic data from the UK had a limited impact on the British pound. The representative of the injured party, the representative of Gfk Group at the wheel, decreased to -21.0 from the previous value of -19.0, which was the first decrease in the last four months, which led to an increase in the number of analysts expecting -18.0. The deterioration of public sentiment is associated with concern about personal financial well-being and the economic future against the background of high inflation. In addition, the level of consumer spending in the country has not yet reached pre-pandemic values.
- Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2746, 1.2800, 1.2850.
- Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500.