AUD/USD: Australian dollar has been rising since the middle of the week
The AUD/USD currency pair shows a positive trend, which has intensified since last Wednesday, thanks to a successful departure from the minimum values recorded on February 14. Currently, the trading instrument is approaching the level of 0.6630, trying to overcome it with an upward movement, while setting new highs since January 16.
Ahead of the meeting, the market analyzed the February statistics of Australian foreign trade activity: exports increased slightly from 1.5% to 1.6%, while the pace of imports decreased significantly from 4.8% to 1.3%. This led to an increase in the trade surplus from 10.74 billion Australian dollars to 11.03 billion Australian dollars, although the figure was lower than the projected 11.5 billion Australian dollars. This trend contributes to the strengthening of the Australian economy, while raising questions about inflation and the ability of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates at a high level for a long period.
The main attention of the market today is focused on the labor market report for February, the results of which may have a significant impact on the decision of the US Federal Reserve System regarding the interest rate.
- Resistance levels: 0.6630, 0.6662, 0.6700, 0.6750.
- Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6578, 0.6551, 0.6524.
NZD/USD: the currency pair is in a stabilization phase in anticipation of new market incentives
During the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair shows an ambiguous movement, remaining near the 0.6170 indicator in anticipation of data from the American labor market.
The market's focus is on the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the key rate at 5.50%, while reducing the forecast for the maximum rate from 5.70% to 5.60%, which indicates a softer position of the regulator and indicates a potential lack of plans to further increase incentives. Chief Economist Paul Conway highlighted the decline in the core consumer price index and most indicators of inflation expectations, noting that risks have become more balanced. He also hinted at the possibility of a correction in the RBNZ rates earlier than the forecast period in the event of the transition of the US Federal Reserve System to a softer monetary policy.
Analysts also took a close look at recent Chinese foreign trade data, where exports accelerated to 7.1% in February, surpassing assumptions of a slowdown to 1.9%, and imports increased to 3.5%, which also turned out to be higher than the projected 1.5%. This led to an increase in the trade surplus to $125.16 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $103.7 billion.
- Resistance levels: 0.6183, 0.6200, 0.6217, 0.6250.
- Support levels: 0.6158, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6076.
GBP/USD: market participants are not impressed by the statements of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve
During the Asian trading period, the GBP/USD currency pair demonstrates stability, remaining near the psychological milestone of 1.2800 and updating its maximum values since the end of December, thanks to stable data from the UK.
Reports indicate an increase in the index of business activity in construction to 49.7 points in February, approaching the key mark of 50.0, which indicates the beginning of recovery. The real estate sector has seen a moderate decline in the housing price index, which highlights the slowdown in annual inflation to 1.7%. Such indicators reflect the potential for further economic growth in the UK.
On the other hand, the US dollar is showing a retreat to 102.70 on the USDX index, reacting to difficult economic data and Jerome Powell's comments before Congress. The head of the Fed stressed the uncertainty in achieving the inflation target of 2.0% this year, which caused a revision of forecasts for lowering interest rates. The rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points at the June meeting, but overall expectations for a rate correction in the coming years remain cautious, given Neil Kashkari's opinion on the possibility of no more than two rate changes in 2024.
- Resistance levels: 1.2840, 1.2960.
- Support levels: 1.2760, 1.2640.
USD/CAD: prices are approaching the key trend support mark of 1.3600–1.3430
During the current trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing a correction, remaining at 1.3449, against the background of the latest economic reports from Canada.
The construction permits report in January showed an unexpected increase from -11.5% to 13.5%, exceeding forecasts of 4.6% and indicating a recovery in the sector since October, which supported the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, export volumes in January decreased from 63.37 billion Canadian dollars to 62.29 billion Canadian dollars, while imports fell from 64.24 billion Canadian dollars to 61.79 billion Canadian dollars, providing a trade surplus of 0.50 billion Canadian dollars compared with a deficit of -0.86 billion Canadian dollars in the previous month.
- Resistance levels: 1.3490, 1.3600.
- Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3300.