AUD/USD: AUD rate falls to record levels
The Australian dollar continues to lose ground in the AUD/USD pair, demonstrating a steady downward trend during Asian trading. The quotes of the instrument are approaching the level of 0.6115, updating the minimum values since April 2020, which confirms the stability of the "bearish" momentum laid down last week.
Recent macroeconomic reports have an additional impact on the Australian currency. December retail sales in the country decreased by 0.1% compared with the November decline of 0.7%, but the quarterly figure accelerated from 0.5% to 1.0%. The volume of building permits increased by 0.7% after falling by 3.4% a month earlier, and year-on-year the indicator strengthened to 12.2% from the previous 3.2%. The S&P Global industrial business activity index rose from 49.8 to 50.2 points, while the Chinese Caixin index, reflecting the situation in the manufacturing sector, fell from 50.5 to 50.1 points. The easing of inflationary pressures also creates conditions for a change in monetary policy. The producer price index slowed to 0.8% month—on-month in the fourth quarter, while forecasts indicated a 1.0% retention, and from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year. This, along with a reduction in consumer inflation, may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to ease policy. According to Bloomberg's forecast, the regulator may cut the rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% as early as this month, which will increase pressure on the Australian dollar.
- Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6155, 0.6178, 0.6200.
- Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.6030, 0.6000.
USD/CAD: Ottawa responds to Washington by imposing trade duties
The USD/CAD pair has updated the historical highs of 2016 and 2020, reaching 1.4740, the highest level in the last 11 years. This move was a reaction to the introduction of 25 percent trade duties by the administration of US President Donald Trump, while the rate for energy imports will be 10.0%.
The head of the White House stressed that in case of retaliatory measures from Canada and other countries, tariffs may be increased. However, Ottawa did not hesitate and, starting on February 4, introduces mirror duties on American products, including food, alcohol, weapons and motorcycles, which together will affect imports worth $155.0 billion. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to give preference to nationally produced goods, and a number of provinces have already announced their refusal to cooperate with well-known alcohol brands from the United States. Additionally, Canada and Mexico confirmed their readiness to present a united front against Washington's economic policy, as the new tariffs threaten serious losses for the decades-old trilateral trade partnership. Against the background of the escalation of the trade conflict, the USDX index started with a gap and is already trading near the January high of 109.48, and a further escalation of the confrontation may accelerate the movement of the US currency to the 2022 extreme of 114.68.
- Resistance levels: 1.4940, 1.5230.
- Support levels: 1.4466, 1.4280.
Gold market analysis
The XAU/USD pair is steadily approaching the 2800.0 mark, remaining in the local maximum zone. The key factor determining the further movement of quotations remains the dynamics of the US dollar, which today almost managed to reach its January peak at 109.90 in the USDX index. However, gold continues to receive support amid steady demand from global central banks, including the People's Bank of China. In November, the Chinese regulator purchased 5.0 tons of the precious metal, which is almost 10.0% of the total global purchases, which reached 53.0 tons.
The foreign trade policy of US President Donald Trump remains an additional driver for strengthening the position of gold. New tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China will come into force tomorrow.: The rate will be 25.0% and 10.0%, respectively. Silver coming from Canada and Mexico is also subject to restrictions, accounting for about 64.0% of total U.S. consumption. These changes may lead to an increase in demand for gold as an alternative asset, especially against the background of a possible correction in the stock market and instability in global trade.
- Resistance levels: 2815.0, 2930.0.
- Support levels: 2750.0, 2625.0.
Crude Oil market analysis
WTI Crude Oil prices are showing a moderate decline in morning trading, testing support around 73.30 as traders assess the impact of new US trade measures and the prospects for global demand.
Investors are closely following President Donald Trump's decision to impose 25.0% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, while energy supplies from Canada are subject to a reduced rate of 10.0%. A similar tariff applies to Chinese products, adding to the existing restrictions. Moreover, Trump again mentioned the possibility of introducing similar barriers to imports from the EU. Against this background, Canada and a number of European countries have strongly criticized and promised retaliatory measures. Although Trump made it clear that oil could be excluded from the list of taxable goods, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau refused to rule out the possibility of limiting hydrocarbon supplies to the United States, saying his cabinet was considering all possible retaliatory steps.
The US position on OPEC+ exerts additional pressure on the market. The head of the White House continues to demand a reduction in global energy prices. Representatives of the cartel will hold talks today, but earlier the alliance stated that it has no plans to abandon the current production restrictions and artificial oil price retention. According to OPEC+ forecasts, global demand for raw materials may increase by 0.7–1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, which creates additional uncertainty in the future of price fluctuations.
- Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.
- Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.62, 71.00.