AUD/USD: the long-term vector of "hawks" has led to increased pressure on households
The AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing volatile dynamics, being near the 0.6540 indicator: Monday's session ended with a noticeable rise, mainly due to technical aspects.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's latest semi-annual review, presented on Friday, notes that despite the fact that rising inflation and interest rates have put family budgets at risk over the past two years, most borrowers are still meeting repayment schedules. Since the regulator began raising rates in May 2022, debt service costs have increased by 30-60%. Nevertheless, one in twenty mortgage holders in Australia spends more than they earn, but the share of housing loans with a delay of more than 90 days is less than 1%. The report also highlights that the healthy labor market situation helped to maintain the ability of Australians to pay off debts: in February, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% compared with 4.1% earlier, and the number of new jobs reached a record 117.0 thousand.
- Resistance levels: 0.6554, 0.6578, 0.6600, 0.6616.
- Support levels: 0.6524, 0.6500, 0.6486, 0.6468.
USD/CHF: the US dollar checks the 0.9000 level for the possibility of an upward breakout
During Asian trading, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight strengthening, trying to overcome the barrier at 0.9000, which it sought to gain a foothold on Friday.
The US dollar is receiving limited support due to fading assumptions about the imminent transition of the Federal Reserve System to a softer monetary policy this summer: optimistic economic data and additional evidence of increasing inflationary pressures give grounds for the Fed to maintain a cautious course. Now the chances of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the June meeting are estimated to be slightly above 60%, while a week ago this figure was at 53%.
The change in expectations may be due to the recent decision of the Swiss National Bank to lower rates by 25 basis points, despite analysts' forecasts that they would remain at 1.75%. The accompanying document emphasized that inflation has been within the 2% target for several months now, and it is not expected to accelerate in the foreseeable future. In addition, by the end of 2025, the forecast for the consumer price index was adjusted from 1.9% to 1.4%. The market foresees at least two more rate cuts before the end of this year.
- Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9072, 0.9100.
- Support levels: 0.8964, 0.8935, 0.8900, 0.8865.
USD/JPY: yen is approaching a record low
In the context of the strengthening of the US dollar and after the Bank of Japan abandoned the policy of negative interest rates, the USD/JPY exchange rate is gaining momentum, reaching 151.40, and is heading towards exceeding the record mark of 151.90.
Traders analyzed the conclusions from the latest minutes of the meeting of the Japanese central bank, at which it was decided to increase the interest rate from -0.10% to 0.10% and adapt the terms of the asset purchase program: continued purchases of government bonds will be carried out without a fixed limit, while operations with ETFs and J-REITs will be stopped. In light of the current decline in the value of the yen, Japanese Vice Minister of Finance Masato Kanda pointed to the speculative nature of this phenomenon, which does not reflect the real economic picture, and expressed his readiness to take all necessary steps to prevent a further fall in the currency. At the same time, the preliminary index of economic indicators for March showed a decrease of 0.4% to 109.5 points, while the inflation rate of production prices remained at 2.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month.
- Resistance levels: 151.95, 154.10.
- Support levels: 150.60, 148.30.
Gold price analysis
The XAU/USD currency pair is stabilizing near the level of 2170.00 after a fluctuating rise a day earlier. Traders refrain from opening new deals, preferring to wait for fresh economic data and statements from members of the Federal Reserve System that can give an idea of the future direction of monetary policy. The main forecast in the market remains the assumption of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June, although at the moment the probability of such an outcome barely reaches 60%. It is expected that only 3-4 rate corrections will occur this year, but the market is still under the influence of numerous risks.
Today, the US is due to publish data on orders for durable goods, where an increase of 1.3% is expected in February after a decrease of 6.2% in the previous month, while orders excluding military and aviation goods may show an increase of 0.1% after stagnation in January. An important indicator for the Fed, reflecting average inflation, will be presented on Friday, when most European markets will not work due to the Easter holidays. The price index of personal consumption expenditures for February is expected to grow by 0.4% after an increase of 0.3% in the previous month, with a possible acceleration in annual dynamics from 2.4% to 2.5%, while the base index may remain at 2.8%.
- Resistance levels: 2181.30, 2195.12, 2215.00, 2230.00.
- Support levels: 2164.68, 2150.00, 2134.09, 2120.00.