USD/TRY Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/USD: key sectors of the European economy are downPublished macroeconomic statistics, which reflected the downward trend development in the main economic indicators of the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to correct around 1.0696.For instance, the consumer prices in Spain fell by 0.1% in May from the previous 0.6% growth, which had an impact on the annual figure, reducing it to 3.2%, or the minimum for August 2021. The cost of manufactured goods kept the negative trend to -4.8% from April's -1.5%. Weakening values of the central economies in the region lowered the European Alliance Business Activity Index from 0.51 points to 0.19 points. Taking into account the released inflation data of Germany and France, the current euro dynamics will continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0610, 1.0400.USD/CAD: the pair is going to test a new local maximumUSD/CAD is moving in active growth, being under the influence of the upward momentum formed earlier, when the pair updated the local low of May 24. The U.S. dollar strengthened due to technical reasons and the announced consideration of the bill to increase the national debt ceiling by the congressmen.The agreement reached the day before by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy concluded last weekend, after which the Congress has only one week to approve the bill, without which the financial authorities will lose the ability to make payments on government bills since June 5. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop also drew investors' attention with the Dallas Fed's May manufacturing activity falling to -29.1 points from a previous estimate of -23.4 points at -19.6 points. A number of Fed officials are expected to speak on Wednesday, May 31. In turn, economists expect publication of the Chicago Business Sentiment Index in May and the monthly economic survey from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called "Exchange Book".Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.USD/TRY: Turkish currency is making new record lowsIn morning trading, USD/TRY showed strong bullish momentum and made a new record high at 20.7000.On the threshold of the next election in Turkey, the conditions for the lira to go down were formed, amid the markets uncertainty about the predictability of the voting results. The announcement of the final election results at the beginning of the week, according to which the incumbent President Recep Erdogan won a clear victory, triggered another downward trend in the national currency, as economists expect the authorities to put pressure on the Turkish Central Bank in the future. Thus, the vector of "doves" in the issue of monetary parameters, most likely, will remain the same, which will serve to improve the investment climate of the Republic, strengthening of the labor market and supply of goods to foreign markets that can deprive the consumer prices of the prospects for further growth, which now hold the level of 43.68%, at the cost of borrowing at 8.5%. Meanwhile, experts raise fears that the prices of consumer goods and services in the short term may resume growing again due to the involvement of public resources in the election campaign, for example, citizens were given the opportunity to consume natural gas for free for a month. The sharp decline in the Turkish lira forces market participants to transfer their capital to savings accounts, where the lira is quoted against the U.S. dollar and the state compensates for the difference in exchange rates. Such measures have been in effect in Turkey since 2021.Resistance levels: 20.7000, 20.8680, 21.0000, 21.1500.Support levels: 20.4263, 20.2242, 20.0036, 19.8500.Gold pricesThe precious metal is developing a correction at the key multi-year level of 2000.0.Physical gold demand level is steadily increasing, especially after the cancellation of Covid-19 epidemiological measures in the regions. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China, for example, has been building up its own gold reserve six months in a row and, according to official statistics coming into publication after a three-year pause, the regulator added more than 100.0 tons of metal to reserves during the first quarter, raising the reserve target to 2076.0 tons.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2030.0.Support levels: 1940.0, ...

USD/CHF: instrument has reached a local maximumCurrency pair USD/CHF is trading mixed dynamics, testing the level of 0.8960 and the local high of May 2, updated a week earlier.The day before the US dollar got a moderate support amid macroeconomic data releases, but all attempts to hold the updated limits failed. For example, retail sales for April rose 0.4% to a 0.7% decline in the past, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 0.7% consolidation, and excluding motor vehicles rose 0.4% to a 0.5% decline for March the day before. Industrial production strengthened 0.5%, breaking March's zero trend. Production capacity utilization rose to 79.7% in April from 79.4% as expected by experts.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9000, 0.9030 and 0.9070.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8900, 0.8858, 0.8819.USD/TRY: lira is actively losing groundThe USD/TRY trade instrument is actively rallying, having reached the area of 19.7400, and the rate of appreciation has been breaking the records of the recent correction.The Turkish currency is actively weakening due to the outcome of the first round voting in presidential and parliamentary elections. The incumbent president of the Republic of Turkey failed to overcome the threshold of 50.0% of supporters, in spite of a fairly confident breakaway from the representative of the opposition in power, as a result of which a new vote will be held on May 28. The current leader's government has been actively reforming the economy since 2017, in an attempt to overcome record consumer inflation and keep the Turkish lira afloat. The current president is ignoring the traditional approach of global regulators on monetary parameters by reducing the cost of borrowing, maintaining the hope that credit products will become more affordable and attractive to international investors in the country, causing the Central Bank of Turkey to come under pressure from the government on a regular basis. In turn, markets have expressed fears that the formed inflationary spiral could have very negative consequences for the financial sector in the country.Resistance levels: 19.7500, 19.8000, 19.8500, 19.9000.Support levels: 19.6530, 19.6000, 19.5500, 19.5000.GBP/USD: UK keeps recording a slowdown in the economyThe strengthened American currency gives impetus to the GBP/USD currency pair to correct at 1.2479.The day before the British pound made an attempt to rise, but on Tuesday the statistics on the national employment market negated the achievement of the asset. Thus, the number of unemployed rose from 3.8% to 3.9% in March amid an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 26.5 thousand in February to 46.7 thousand, which set a new record for March 2021, where such a situation was possible due to epidemiological restrictions. This situation reduced labor productivity by 1.4 percent, after increasing by 0.4 percent. The average wage rate maintained its level of 5.8%, having a disincentive effect on new hires.Resistance levels: 1.2560 and 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2200.Gold PricesThe precious metal is quoted near the key multi-year mark of 2000.0.According to the published report of the World Gold Council, analysts noted a slight sentiment in favor of lowering the key value in Q1. For example, first-quarter demand fell 13.0% year-over-year to 1,080.0 tonnes, while the jewelry industry lowered gold demand to 508.6 tonnes, or 2.0%. Investor demand corrected by -51.0% to 273.7 tonnes, while physical gold bars and coins gained 5.0% to 302.4 tonnes. Capital outflows from gold-backed ETFs decreased to 28.7 tonnes from 270.7 tonnes the year before.In turn, central banks are increasing their purchases of gold to bolster reserves, with the first quarter value renewing its highest peak over the same period in 2022 at 176.0% to 228.4 tonnes.Resistance levels: 2010.0, 2050.0.Support levels: 1975.0, ...

EURUSD: Euro is retreating from its local peakThe EURUSD trading instrument showed a moderate decline, testing the level of 1.0975.Earlier the pair showed a slight negative trend, as a result investors expect new stimulus against the announcement of the March data on demand for durable goods in the U.S. today, April 26. The experts' current estimates see the index gaining 0.8% from the previous 1.0% decline, while capital goods orders excluding aircraft and defense goods may show a positive 0.2% correction from the previous 0.1% decline in February. Traders are eager to assess May statistics on consumer confidence in Germany, according to analysis portal Gfk Group. The market expects the positive dynamics of the value to -27.5 points from -29.5 points.Resistance levels: 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100, 1.1150.Support levels: 1.0957, 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800.USDTRY: Dollar keeps the bulls' advantageThe USDTRY currency pair is under the influence of contradictory factors, reaching the level of 19.4220.The U.S. dollar was able to gain ground thanks to a block of macroeconomic data, which showed 0.5% increase in February, a 0.1% increase against analysts' expectations of 0.2% decline, while the percentage of new residential real estate sales for March rose 9.6% against the previous 3.9% decline, after revising from 1.1% rise, while experts estimated 1.1% growth.The lira continues to be under pressure because of the rapid decline of the Turkish Central Bank reserves, because a week earlier the decline of reserves exceeded the figure of $5.0 billion on the background of the rapid growth in demand for foreign currency and other safe assets, including gold, from the population. Thus, the market participants are getting ready for the volatility on the threshold of the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, which are due on May 14.Resistance levels: 19.4511, 19.5000, 19.5500, 19.6000.Support levels: 19.4000, 19.3560, 19.3000, 19.2000.AUDUSD: Australian consumer prices are decliningLocal strengthening of the American currency allows the AUDUSD pair to test the level of 0.6610. The Australian dollar lost all its gains the day before because of the strengthening U.S. dollar.Today, April 26, the quarterly report on consumer prices for Q1 in Australia was released, showing a 1.4% increase from last year's 1.9% increase, which cut the yearly value to 7.0% from 7.8%. The most vulnerable to cost increases were gas and other fuels at 14.3%, higher education at 9.7%, domestic transportation at 4.7% and medical and hospital care at 4.2%. Thus, the negative inflation trend is circumstantial evidence of recent successful decisions by RBA officials to tone down the hawkish rhetoric.Resistance levels: 0.6660 and 0.6770.Support levels: 0.6570, 0.6430.Gold price analysisThe precious metal prices reflect a mixed trend, holding at the level of 2000.00. Gold has been showing some limited appreciation since the beginning of the week, in an attempt to move up towards the psychological level of 2000.00, which it is unable to hold for a long time.Earlier, a block of macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. sent a positive signal for the asset. Thus, the consumer confidence in April dropped from the revised 104.0 points in March to 101.3 points, against the analysts' forecast of the downward correction to 104.0 points from 104.2 points. In turn, gold is using the news background on the U.S. banking sector to strengthen. First Republic Bank, which earlier reported problems caused by the March capital outflow, announced the reduction of its deposit portfolio to the amount exceeding $100 billion for Q1 this year, which served as an "anchor" for the shares of the financial institution, which fell to $8.0.Meanwhile, the bears are getting support for the pressure on investors' anticipation of the announced meetings of the key central banks in the first half of May. Recall that another 0.25% strengthening of the interest rate is expected at the end of the U.S. Federal Reserve officials' meeting.Resistance levels: 2000.00, 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00.Support levels: 1981.46, 1960.00, 1943.80, ...

AUDUSD: bulls are set to regain the advantageAUDUSD is trading in moderate growth, ending the downward trend of the last three sessions, which resulted in the instrument leaving the local highs. Investors began to fix long-term deals in anticipation of the release of March reports on the U.S. employment market and the celebration of Easter.Meanwhile, the instrument got the certain support due to macroeconomic statistics. For example, Australian exports fell by 3.0% and imports fell by 9.0%, allowing the surplus to reach A$13.870 billion from the previous A$11.266 billion, with economists estimating a correction to A$11.100 billion. Meanwhile, Australian Industry Group (AiG) manufacturing activity for March was 5.6 points, strengthening from a previous -6.4 points, signaling an increase in positive momentum in the manufacturing sector, while the Caixin PRC service sector business activity showed an upward trend to 57.8 points from 55.0 points, beating estimates of a decline to 54.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6624, 0.6600, 0.6563.USDCHF: pair is held near the June 2021 lowDuring the Asian trading the currency pair USDCHF shows a contradictory sentiment, testing 0.9040 and a record low of June 2021, updated the day before.Investors show low trading dynamics due to preparations for the Easter celebrations according to the Catholic calendar, as well as wish to evaluate the publication of the main US macroeconomic indicators. Thus, the previously announced labor market statistics for March can provide the correction of sentiment among the US FRS officials, as the forecast provides for the number of the unemployed outside the agricultural sector to decrease to 240.0 thousand from the previous 311.0 thousand, the moderate correction of the partial employment and unemployment at the level of 3.6%. Analysts have expressed fears that in reality the situation will be much worse, because the report released the day before by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on the number of private sector jobs did not meet expectations, showing a correction of only 145.0 thousand earlier, strengthening to 261.0 thousand, with market estimates of a change to 200.0k. Jobless claims data released earlier also did not please the market, showing a decline in initial claims to 228.0k from 246.0k with an expected drop to 200.0k, while secondary claims strengthened to 1.823 million from 1.817 million with a forecast decline to 1.699 million.Resistance levels: 0.9070, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8925.EURGBP: Euro is trying to correctThe EURGBP currency pair reflects a weak decline, being in the area of 0.8770. The market is quite passive in terms of trades amid investors' wait-and-see attitude following the release of U.S. labor market data for March.Earlier published macroeconomic block in the UK showed mixed statistics with Halifax index of residential real estate value for March growing 0.8% adding 1.2% in February against estimates of -0.3% and business activity of the construction sector showing decline to 50.7 points from 54.6 points contrary to expectations of 53.5 points. Of interest to the market was a number of statements by the Bank of England representatives in which the agency assumes a more dynamic rate of reduction than it was planned the day before because the previous correction in borrowing costs is putting pressure on the performance of the global economy, moreover, earlier measures taken to combat inflation have already shown their effectiveness.Resistance levels: 0.8783, 0.8800, 0.8820, 0.8841.Support levels: 0.8750, 0.8727, 0.8700, 0.8660.USDTRY: Turkey is successfully fighting back against inflationUSDTRY is fluctuating within a stable upward range of 18.8000-19.4000, which is held with artificial mechanisms ahead of the upcoming presidential elections.Preliminary polls show that the current Republican leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is slightly ahead of his opponent, but the final superiority can only be affected by the obvious domestic economic success. During the current week, March consumer inflation statistics were released, with a monthly gain of 2.29%, second to February's 3.15% increase, but showing a decline in the annual rate to 50.51% from 55.18%. The downward trend in inflation strengthens the incumbent quite a bit, because back in the early months some economists were considering a scenario of an inflation increase to 100.0%.Resistance levels: 19.3000 and 19.5000.Support levels: 19.2000, ...

EURUSD: upward trend is expected in the pairPair EURUSD is relatively stable at 1.0835 and the local maximum of March 23. Euro is waiting for the next stimulus to strengthen the current "bullish" momentum.Experts hastened to reconsider their estimates of the crisis development in the bank sector of the USA and Europe, noting the successful and timely actions of the Fed and the Treasury Department, since the situation has stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the information was confirmed that the US bank First Citizens BancShares Inc. would acquire the controlling interest on the credit portfolio of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that stopped its activity the day before, and that would lead to the reduction of the load on the insurance sector. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will not avoid a huge loss of at least 20.0 billion dollars. At the same time, the chairman of the Central Bank of Spain and the ECB official Pablo Hernandez de Kos fears that the global turmoil in the banking sector has caused uncertainty in the market, against which the regular increase in the price of funding for credit institutions in Spain and the growing reserve stock is likely to follow.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0900, 1.0957, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0758, 1.0700, 1.0640.NZDUSD: Short term sideways trendThe trading instrument NZDUSD is developing a moderate strengthening, reaching the area of 0.6260, developing "bullish" sentiment in the pair, formed since the beginning of the week due to lower panic moods in the market on the prospects of a potential crisis in the banking sector in Europe and the United States.Investors are waiting for the New Zealand macroeconomic statistics release on Thursday, March 30. Thus, traders' interest is aroused by the previously announced dynamics of approved construction applications in February: expectations are for a moderate strengthening of the value by 0.5%, having earlier decreased by 1.5% in January. RBNZ March business optimism data is expected, but experts forecast a sharp fall to -47.5 points from -43.3 points. Business activity, according to the National Bank of New Zealand, will decrease to -12.5% from -9.2%.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400 and 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100.USDTRY: Turkey's manufacturing sector continues to strengthenThe USDTRY currency pair continues to hold within the narrow 18.7000-19.3000 upward corridor ahead of the planned presidential election scheduled for May 14.Thanks to the personal efforts of the Turkish president the national currency and monetary parameters remained stable, which rules out volatility of the lira in the short term. Earlier in the publication were statistics on March manufacturing sector confidence, reflecting an increase to 105.2 points from 102.4 points, marking the third month in a row of upward correction from 97.5 points since December 2022. Tomorrow, March 30, the Turkish Statistical Institute (Türkstat) will present economic confidence in the index, which is predicted to rise to 100.0 points from February's 99.10 points.Resistance levels: 19.1400, 19.3000.Support levels: 19.0660, 18.9000.Silver analysisThe value of the precious metal is quoted above the 23.00 threshold, preparing to test the 24.50 target due to the fluctuations in the U.S. dollar.Precious metals remain in high demand among investors amid the development of the crisis in the financial sector, which came in the U.S. after the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and then hit European financial institutions. Currently in a difficult situation is the German bank Deutsche Bank AG, whose shares plummeted by 14% at once, contrary to the announced long-term redemption of part of the subordinated securities of the second degree. Trading participants hastily save their capitals, transferring them into "safe" instruments, which by classics are considered as metallic assets, to minimize risks, while leading central banks continue to assure about the stable situation of the banking sector. Gold has risen by 7.3% since spring, and silver by 10.00%. If the upward trend among the metal asset group continues, silver could renew its year-to-date high at 24.50.Resistance levels: 23.00, 24.50, 26.00.Support levels: 21.50, 20.00, ...

USDCHF: Swiss Central Bank assessed readiness to support Credit SuisseThe USDCHF trading instrument shows a moderate decline under the influence of the corrective impulse received earlier, where the asset occupied local highs for March 9.The franc gained support amid a change in investor sentiment on the further development of the crisis in the banking sector in Europe and the United States. We remind you that at the beginning of this week, official statements were made about the liquidation of a number of credit institutions in the United States, which required the intervention of federal authorities to localize the negative effect. Moreover, there was information about the liquidity problem of the financial institution Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland, which lost 30% of the value of securities, operations on which were stopped for some time because the largest investor Saudi National Bank refused to make additional investments. According to Bloomberg, by the end of 2022, the National bank of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia acquired 9.9% of the Credit Suisse package, and currently its share has decreased by 30% or more than 500.0 million francs. Meanwhile, the SNB confirmed its readiness to provide additional support for Credit Suisse in the amount of 50.0 billion. Swiss francs, which led to the stabilization of the situation. Reduction of losses from Credit Suisse's American depositary receipts decreased in price by up to 14% on the comments of regulatory authorities, and the European markets had already completed trading by that time.Resistance levels: 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9439.Support levels: 0.9258, 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100.EURGBP: the ECB raised the percentage indicatorDuring morning trading, the EURGBP pair shows a moderate decline, as part of the development of a short-term downtrend from March 8 and is located in the 0.8750 area. The asset is at the local minimum for December 21, updated last Wednesday.European investors continue to evaluate the final minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary parameters, which ended a day earlier, and officials adjusted the interest and deposit indicators by 0.50%, bringing the target level to 3.5% and 3.0%, respectively, which fully meets market expectations. The accompanying comments of the regulator signaled that inflation will remain at a high level for a long period, and also confirmed the readiness to apply additional stimulus measures if price and financial stability face the challenge of new threats. However, the regulator refrained from forecasts on further steps to tighten monetary parameters, prioritizing the stability of the financial and banking sectors, which have been aggravated since the beginning of the week after official information about the bankruptcy of a number of American credit institutions. The increased concerns about the Swiss bank Credit Suisse Group were completely offset by the information that the bank was supported by the National Bank of Switzerland in the amount of 54.0 billion dollars, which partially reduced the panic on the rank, and also restored the issuer's position on the sites.Resistance levels: 0.8775, 0.8801, 0.8841, 0.8875.Support levels: 0.8750, 0.8720, 0.8692, 0.8660.USDTRY: the elements are putting pressure on the Turkish economyThe USDTRY currency pair demonstrates a multidirectional trend, being in the area of 19.0000, developing growth. The losses of the Turkish lira to the "American" since March 2021 amounted to about 60%. Negative trends for the Turkish currency are reinforced by traders' fears about the consequences of natural disasters that occurred in February-March, against which more than 49.0 thousand people became victims, which was only intensified by floods that occurred in the provinces of southeastern Turkey. National economic indicators are under enormous pressure, which investors find confirmed in the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, which noted the borrowing of $ 2.25 billion through Eurobonds maturing until 2029, thus increasing the total volume of loans from international lenders to $ 5.0 billion.Resistance levels: 19.0789, 19.2000, 19.3000, 19.4000.Support levels: 18.8500, 18.7500, 18.6500, 18.5575.Gold PricesThe banking metal is quoted by rapid growth within the framework of the development of a stable trend for the near future, which has come since the first days of March. The asset is trading at 1930.00, holding the local maximum for February 2.Last evening, gold showed a moderate decline, as the publication of the final minutes of the summit of ECB officials followed. According to expectations, the agency decided to increase the key percentage by 0.50% to the target value of 3.50%. Alarming news from the financial world about the crisis among the European and American banking sectors has increased analysts' fears that the European Central Bank will reduce the correction step by raising the cost of borrowing by only 0.25%. Meanwhile, the European regulator improved its own expectations regarding inflation dynamics at the end of this year to 5.3% from the previous 6.3%, and also revised the GDP estimates for the end of 2023 to 1.0% from 0.5%. Increasing pressure on the position of the banking metal is an increase in the rate of US treasury securities, the growth of which on 10-year bonds amounted to 3.871% from the previous 3.577%.Resistance levels: 1937.50, 1968.75, 2000.00.Support levels: 1875.00, 1843.75, ...

EURUSD: the "bulls" have taken the initiativeThe currency pair EURUSD is trading in moderate growth, making up for the losses of the last three days, when the asset updated the local lows of January 6. The pair traded at the level of 1.0600 waiting for new stimulus.Moderate support for the single currency was provided by the previously released inflation data of the European region in January, which showed monthly index dynamics at -0.2% instead of -0.4% and annual inflation at 8.6% from 9.2%, moreover, negative correction was demonstrated in 18 countries of the European alliance. The level of the core index for the month showed zero correction at the previous level of 0.8%, and for the year it strengthened to 5.3% from 5.2%. The EU statistical office released a report that listed Hungary (26.2%), Latvia (21.4%) and Czech Republic (19.1%) as the leaders of the rapid growth, while Spain showed 5.9% and Luxembourg 5.8%. Meanwhile, representatives of the European financial authority stated that it is too early to talk about the beginning of monetary easing, as some correction of the trend is probably due to lower energy prices which decreased to 2.17% in January, rather than a fundamental change in the dynamics.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0654, 1.0700, 1.0765.Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400.USDCAD: Quotes depend on monetary factorsThe USDCAD made a two-month high at 1.3580 due to positive minutes from the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.According to the report of the financial authorities, the slowdown in consumer prices in the U.S. economy has not had the necessary effect, therefore monetary parameters will tighten further, and some officials suggested that the interest rate correction may increase the step back to 0.50%. Economists noted that the published document only increased the "hawkish" mood among officials, because the positive January employment data and weak inflation figures were not yet available at the time of the meeting. The continuation of the interest rate strengthening will lead to the strengthening of the American currency against the world currency basket, even at the moment the US dollar gets the support from the news, on the other hand it will increase investors' concerns over the economic indicators, which have not yet exhausted the safety margin. So, the earlier data showed a decline of the economic growth in Q4 2022 down to 2.7% from the previous 3.2%, while still being in a strong position.Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3732.Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3305, 1.3244.NZDUSD: The instrument is in a corrective movementNZDUSD is moving under the influence of contradictory market factors, located in the area of 0.6230, having retreated to the level of the beginning of the week, February 20. The main support to NZDUSD during the week was provided by the market signals of the continuation of monetary tightening steps and interest rate hike by 0.50% on the results of the meeting of the New Zealand Central Bank officials, reaching the target of 4.75%, as analysts predicted. The financial watchdog did not share its plans for the future, but economists were positive about the prospect of another rate hike at the current or lower rate.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6288, 0.6350 and 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6050.USDTRY: Turkey's central bank has changed its key indicatorDuring the Asian session, the trading instrument USDTRY is rapidly recovering the losses incurred the day before, when the asset started the session with strong volatility and failed to consolidate in the positive zone. The pair is currently testing 18.8822.Investors are assessing the results of the Turkish Central Bank meeting that decided on Thursday to lower the interest rate by 0.50%, renewing the target of 8.5%, which coincided with market expectations and was a necessary measure to try to mitigate the consequences of the natural disaster that took the lives of more than 42.0 thousand people. The authorities' estimate of the losses incurred is $50.0 billion and the company's estimate of $84.0 billion. Experts note that $70.0 billion is needed just to fix the destruction of infrastructure, buildings and the power grid. There is now a massive government project for people living in earthquake-affected areas that provides payments to companies with severe or moderate property damage to meet their stated obligations to their workforce. In addition, there is a ban on employers laying off employees in some of the cities most affected by the devastation, which will provide some support for the nation's population. Economists are assuming that the natural disaster could only budget Turkey $100.0 billion and economic growth will decline by 1.0-2.0% in 2023.Resistance levels: 18.8818, 18.9128, 18.9500, 19.0000.Support levels: 18.8500, 18.8281, 18.8000, ...

NZDUSD: the "bears" are increasing the dynamics in the pairNZDUSD is falling actively, developing the activity of the "bears", who took the initiative since Tuesday, February 14, when they renewed the local maximum of February 3. The pair is quoted around 0.6220, below which the "New Zealander" was on January 6.Negative dynamics was possible due to the publication of the macroeconomic data in the USA. Thus, the market participants estimated the statistics of retail sales at the end of January, which had grown by 3,0%, having earlier decreased by 1,1% in December, while the analysts expected 1,8%. The publication the day before added to the uncertainty about the further steps of the US Federal Reserve in favor of ending the cycle of tightening of monetary policy. In particular the January PPI data showed a 0.7% gain versus a 0.2% decline against market expectations of a 0.4% increase, and the annual rate of manufacturing inflation slowed to 6.0% from 6.5% while a decline to 5.4% was expected.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6288, 0.6350 and 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6050.USDTRY: Turkey has experienced unprecedented lossesThe USDTRY traded up moderately, near 18.8550 and is developing an uptrend. Earlier on Wednesday, the Turkish lira showed sharp declines after the capital's stock market resumed its forced one-week break amid the worst earthquake in Syria and Turkey since 1939.According to Bloomberg, the Confederation of Businesses and Entrepreneurs released a report on the economic losses caused by the natural disaster in the southeast region, which economists estimate will bravely surpass the $84.0 billion mark. Thus, residential real estate suffered $70.8 billion in damage, a $2.9 billion shortfall in workers, and budget fillers will lose $10.4 billion. Destruction of power grids, medical and educational institutions could provoke an increase in the budget deficit this year to 5.4% of GDP, from the previous figure of 3.5%. Meanwhile, the emergency regime was approved by the authorities in 10 Turkish provinces for a period of three months, intensifying the negative factors in the economy. According to the latest statistics, Turkey has lost more than 35.0 thousand people and the number of injured exceeded 100.0 thousand due to the natural disaster.Resistance levels: 18.8818, 18.9128, 18.9500, 19.0000.Support levels: 18.8500, 18.8281, 18.8000, 18.7500.EURGBP: the pair is around the 0.8900 level.During this morning session EURGBP shows an uptrend since Wednesday and trades resistance at the psychological mark of 0.8900.Market participants are studying the statistics on consumer prices, which was published this week. Thus, January value decreased by 0.6% from the previous estimate of -0.4%, while the annual rate slowed down to 10.1% from 10.5% beating the preliminary forecast of 10.3%. The downward trend has continued for the third month in a row, but analysts still point to high real estate, energy and food costs, which continue to act as negative factors for households. Meanwhile, according to the U.K. National Data Office, the restaurant, hotel and transportation industries have lowered costs, giving economists hope for an interest rate adjustment to 0.25% from the Bank of England at the next working group meeting, which is less than the 0.50% previously projected.Resistance levels: 0.8900, 0.8938, 0.8977, 0.9000.Support levels: 0.8864, 0.8817, 0.8777, 0.8750.USDCAD: Global triangle pattern observed in the pairThe weak macro statistics of Canada has become the growth driver for the USDCAD pair, which is testing the level of 1.3487 at the moment of writing.In particular, the manufacturing sector sales for December were down 1.5%, previously down 0.2% in November, while the wholesale goods figure was down 0.8% from the previous -0.7%, which shows negative dynamics for the second month in a row. New macroeconomic data are scheduled for release today, February 17. Experts forecast a 0.1% correction in the value of industrial goods in January, while commodities may reduce the index by 0.2% developing negative dynamics for the tenth month in a row.Resistance levels: 1.3530 and 1.3670.Support levels: 1.3400, ...

The Turkish lira continues to rewrite historical lows. Over the past year, it has weakened by 110% against the dollar, which has earned the status of one of the worst investments in the world. We understand the reasons for such a rapid decline and the risks for the global financial system.Hawks vs. PigeonsBack in March 2021, the then head of the Central Bank of Turkey, Naji Agbal, raised the key rate from 17 to 19%. The reason for the tight monetary policy is high inflation, which by that time had reached almost 16%. The high rate was planned to be kept until the price increase was stopped.Agbala's "hawkish" rhetoric was not to the taste of the country's president Erdogan, who believes that the rigid PREP, on the contrary, only accelerates inflation. As a result, the chair of the head of the Central Bank was occupied by Sahap Kavcioglu, who supports the opinion of the national leader.Since September, a gradual reduction in the key rate has begun: from 19 to 14%. The last decline occurred on December 16, it served as another trigger for the weakening of the Turkish lira. In November, official inflation exceeded 20%, and the Central Bank failed to slow down the fall of the national currency, even thanks to the active sale of dollars.What are the forecasts?The depreciation of the Turkish lira has a negative impact primarily on the financial situation of the Turkish population. In real terms, the key rate is, in fact, negative, which only accelerates the growth of consumer prices.There are no prerequisites that the situation will change in the foreseeable future. Erdogan and his supporters continue to believe that there is no alternative to an investment-oriented policy.S&P rating agency has changed its outlook for Turkey from stable to negative. The national debt is growing, gold and foreign exchange reserves are shrinking, and the Central Bank of the country continues to lower the key rate against the background of increased inflation.A full-scale crisis in Turkey is capable of provoking a wave of sales in emerging markets, to which Russia belongs. We could observe a kind of rehearsal of the withdrawal of international investors from global asset risks on Monday, December ...