USD/TRY Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/GBP: the interest rate of the European Central Bank remained at 4.50%The euro is at low levels compared to most major currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair shows a corrective movement in morning trading, settling at 0.8541.At yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), officials, as expected, left the main monetary rates unchanged (the main rate is 4.50%, the marginal rate is 4.75%, the deposit rate is 4.00%) and expressed readiness to reduce them if inflationary pressure decreases. Regulators confirmed that the current slowdown in consumer price growth is in line with medium-term expectations, due to lower prices for food and household goods, but did not specify the timing of a possible change in interest rates. It also announced plans to complete the reinvestment program for emergency asset purchases due to COVID-19 by the end of the year and significantly reduce the asset purchase program. The reduction of the emergency procurement program is taking place at a rate of 7.5 billion euros per month, which will allow it to be completed by the end of November or December.UK economic growth remains weak: in February, GDP growth was, as expected, only 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%, and this led to a decrease in annual growth to -0.2%. Among the main factors of such dynamics are industrial production, which increased by 1.1%, improving the annual rate to 1.4%, and the construction sector, where a decrease of 1.9% on a monthly basis and 2.0% year-on-year was recorded.Resistance levels: 0.8560, 0.8600.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8480.USD/TRY: Investors tend to take profits after a week of growthThe USD/TRY currency pair shows ambiguous trends, holding near the level of 32.3165. Traders are refraining from opening new positions on Friday due to the expectation of a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as due to the profit-taking mood after moderate growth during the week. Earlier, the US dollar was helped by inflation data, which increased investors' doubts about the imminent reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate by 25 basis points in June.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to economic difficulties in the country. Despite the efforts of monetary authorities and a significant increase in rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, annual inflation accelerated from 67.07% in February to 68.50% in March. At the same time, independent analysts from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) record an annual price increase of more than 120%. Additionally, on April 9, the Turkish Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on the export of 54 categories of goods to Israel, including cement, glass, iron, aluminum and steel, which puts additional pressure on the already strained construction sector. These sanctions, in effect until the end of hostilities and the creation of conditions for free humanitarian aid to Gaza, are likely to raise prices for both Israeli and Turkish consumers.Resistance levels: 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000.Support levels: 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306.NZD/USD: the US currency has reached a new recordThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction near the 0.5995 level, as the New Zealand currency is facing difficulties in trying to regain its position against the background of disappointing macroeconomic statistics.The March report showed that spending via e-cards in New Zealand decreased by 0.7%, which in absolute terms is a decrease of NZ$ 45 million compared to February. Compared to March of the previous year, 2023, the total amount of expenses decreased by 3.0%. This decrease was recorded in almost all key sectors of the economy: of the seven main sectors, only wholesale trade, with the exception of services, showed an increase of 2.1%. The biggest deterioration was seen in the sectors related to sales of clothing and motor vehicles, each of which showed a 2.2% drop. There was also a decrease in the fuel sectors by 1.4%, durable goods by 0.3% and consumables by 0.2%.These data indicate continued pressure on the New Zealand economy, which negatively affects the national currency and contributes to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The lack of significant improvement in economic indicators may continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil have stabilized at 85.09 in a sideways trend driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and seasonal growth in global fuel demand.The situation in the Middle East remains tense with expectations of possible Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which has led to warnings for citizens of some countries to visit the region. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report predicted that global oil demand will increase to 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, and decrease to 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. A seasonal increase in fuel consumption is also expected in the second quarter: demand for aviation kerosene will grow by 600 thousand barrels per day, for gasoline — by 400 thousand, and for diesel fuel — by 200 thousand barrels per day.Resistance levels: 86.30, 90.00.Support levels: 84.00, ...

EUR/USD: Eurozone sentiment index signals improved prospectsThe EUR/USD currency pair follows the correction rate, being at 1.0823.Market activity has slowed in recent days due to traders' preference to avoid new deals amid the approaching Easter weekend, although economic data looks relatively favorable. For example, the consumer price index in Spain increased from 0.4% to 0.8% on a monthly basis in March and from 2.8% to 3.2% year-on-year. The index, harmonized with EU standards, showed an increase of 1.3% for the month, reaching the highest value since June 2022 and accelerating from 2.9% to 3.2% year-on-year. The EU consumer confidence index fell from -14.9 to -15.5 points, inflation expectations rose from 3.9 to 5.6 points, and the index of expectations in the service sector rose from 6.0 to 6.3 points. Market optimism is fueled by the anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Today, the chairman of the Bank of Italy, Piero Cipollone, expressed confidence that inflation will fall to the target level of 2.0% by mid-2025, based on a slowdown in wage growth, which may be the basis for adapting monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0980.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0700.USD/TRY: tourist growth in Turkey reached 22.68 in February%During the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY rate continues to show an upward trend on the short-term horizon, approaching the level of 32.3060 for a possible breakout, ahead of the publication of important statistics on consumer inflation in the United States.The Turkish lira is losing ground amid the current economic difficulties in the country. Recently, the Central Bank of Turkey increased the key rate by 500 basis points to 50%, which came as a surprise to analysts who expected a 250-point increase or stabilization of the rate. Inflation expectations remain stable on the part of the government: it is assumed that by the end of the year the inflation rate will reach 36%, and by 2025 it will decrease to 14%. The beginning of the tourist season contributes to a partial economic recovery: in February, the number of foreign tourists increased to 22.68%, reaching 2.3 million people, of whom 1.3 million visited Istanbul. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his intention to attract 60 million tourists this year, which should bring the country an income of $ 60 billion. Last year, 56.7 million people visited Turkey, which is 12% more than the previous year, bringing in revenue of 54.3 billion dollars, which is an increase of 16.9%.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/JPY: currency pair stabilizes near historical peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair is approaching the 151.35 mark, with the yen at its lowest levels since 1990. The discussion of the possibility of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan has again intensified among market participants, recalling last year's events when the exchange rate exceeded 145.00.The central bank's rejection of negative interest rates did not bring significant support to the national currency, as this decision was predictable. Analysts' attention is focused on the potential tightening of monetary policy, the prospects for which remain vague.Representatives of the Bank of Japan stressed their intention to continue applying a soft monetary policy and maintain the current volume of interventions in the government bond market. Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Japan, expressed the view that it is necessary to consistently focus on tightening the monetary sphere and warned against the dangers of aggressively increasing the cost of lending in the event of too rapid inflation.Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.00, 152.50, 153.00.Support levels: 151.00, 150.50, 150.00, 149.50.Silver market analysisThe price of silver shows a moderate increase, approaching the indicator of 24.70 and continuing the growth that began a day earlier, after moving away from the minimum values on March 13 against the background of unclear expectations for easing the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. A previous statement by the US central bank eased concerns about a slowdown in the pace of lower lending costs this year: markets are still anticipating three interest rate adjustments of 25 basis points each, with the first expected step in June.The final data on gross domestic product (GDP) will be in the focus of traders' attention today The United States for the fourth quarter of 2023 and statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 22 will increase from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 24.71, 25.00, 25.35, 25.58.Support levels: 24.40, 24.20, 24.00, ...

NZD/USD: pair's attempt to break through the 0.6100 level upThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing uncertainty at 0.6100, with traders waiting for today's economic reports from the US before deciding on new deals.Particular attention is paid to the January statistics on manufacturing inflation in the United States, which will complement the recently published data on consumer price inflation. The consumer price index for January showed a slowdown from 3.4% to 3.1% per annum, exceeding expectations at 2.9%, while the monthly index increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the forecast of 3.7%. These data led to a revision of expectations for a reduction in Federal Reserve rates, supporting the US dollar. Meanwhile, previous economic data dampened market optimism, with January retail sales falling 0.8% after rising 0.4% in December, which was significantly worse than the expected 0.1% decrease.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6192.Support levels: 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.USD/TRY: new head of the Central Bank of Turkey supports strict policyIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, striving to overcome the 30.8000 level, approaching the next key mark of 31.0000.The Turkish lira is under increasing pressure due to internal economic challenges, while the decisive position of the Central Bank of Turkey has failed to support the currency. The market's attention is focused on the actions of the new chairman Fatih Karakhan, who replaced Hafiz Gaye Ercan, who failed to cope with the task of reducing inflation. During her tenure, the key rate was adjusted eight times, the last time to 45% on January 25, but inflation accelerated from 47% to 64.86%. These measures proved insufficient to stabilize the economic situation against the background of high consumer demand and an increase in the minimum wage, which was increased by 34% in July and by 49% at the beginning of this year. Karakhan confirmed his intention to continue strict monetary policy with worsening inflation forecasts expected at 36% by the end of the year, 14% by the end of 2025 and 9% in 2026. He predicts a peak in price pressure in May, followed by a slowdown in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 30.8100, 30.9188, 31.0000, 31.1000.Support levels: 30.7230, 30.6500, 30.5500, 30.4526.GBP/USD: British economy has entered a state of technical recessionThe GBP/USD trading instrument is retreating, approaching 1.2580 downwards, against the background of stable USD dynamics.The report on the British economy for the fourth quarter confirmed the entry into a technical recession: GDP for December fell by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, leading to a decrease in the quarterly figure from -0.1% to -0.3%, against an increase of 0.2% a year earlier. Despite this, some economic sectors are showing signs of recovery: December industrial production increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Today's data showed an increase in retail sales in January from -3.3% to 3.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 1.5%, and from -2.4% to 0.7% year-on-year, contrary to expectations of a decline to -1.4%, which contributed to the support of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2380.Crude Oil market analysisBrent oil prices are showing stability, hovering around $82.30 per barrel. Prices jumped yesterday, responding to American economic statistics.However, this week, the growth of oil reserves in the United States has brought instability to market sentiment. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that in the week ended February 9, inventories increased by 12.018 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected an increase of 2.56 million barrels. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its expectations for oil demand for the current year, predicting a decrease to 1.22 million tons. barrels per day from previous estimates of 1.24 million, while predicting a greater increase in supply by 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply compared to expectations of 1.5 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, ...

AUD/USD: the deterioration of trends in the Australian real estate market continuesBefore the close of the weekly session, the AUD/USD pair shows moderate growth, reflecting the local weakening of the US dollar and the desire to gain a foothold above the 0.6595 level.The latest data from the real estate sector is a deterrent for the Australian dollar. December showed a decrease in the issuance of construction permits by 9.5%, indicating an annual decrease in activity by 2%. In particular, the decline in permits for the construction of private houses amounted to -0.5%, reflecting a decrease in interest in housing, confirmed by a drop in the issuance of housing loans by -5.6% and a decrease in investment in construction by -1.3%.The US dollar did not show the expected strengthening yesterday, ending the day at 102.800 on the USDX index, which was the first case of a decline below 103.000 since last week. The reason was negative employment statistics in the United States, including an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits and an increase in the total number of applications for help.Today, traders are cautious, waiting for the publication of the January report on the US labor market, which may confirm the trend towards lower average hourly wages and higher unemployment, which affects the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6620, 0.6720.Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6460.USD/TRY: Turkey introduces measures to support savings in liraIn the Asian session, USD/TRY showed growth, approaching 30.4500 after updating weekly highs to 30.6267 against the background of statements by the US Federal Reserve System. The Fed left the key rate at 5.5%, cooling market expectations of an early easing of monetary policy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need to further confirm the reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0% before changing the policy course.The US dollar came under pressure due to data from the labor market, where the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, contradicting forecasts of a decline. Investors are refraining from opening new positions ahead of the publication of the US labor market report for January, anticipating a possible increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in average wage growth.Meanwhile, Turkey's central bank recently increased the rate to 45% in an effort to contain inflation, which reached 65% in December. In response to economic challenges, the bank has introduced new measures to strengthen the lira, including increasing reserve requirements for foreign currency deposits and increasing the cost of maintaining client accounts in foreign currencies for banks.Resistance levels: 30.4526, 30.5500, 30.6500, 30.7500.Support levels: 30.3146, 30.2000, 30.1000, 29.9729.USD/CHF: Dollar stabilizes ahead of US Labor Market reportThe USD/CHF currency pair shows mixed activity, remaining near the 0.8570 level, with the prospect of ending the week with a slight drop. Despite the lull among investors ahead of the release of the US labor market report for January today.The average hourly wage is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% in January, while the annual rate should remain at 4.1%. Preliminary forecasts also indicate a possible increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the pace of job creation in the US economy outside the agricultural sector is likely to decrease from 216.0 thousand to 180.0 thousand. It is assumed that these data will have little effect on changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, given recent statements about the need for further evidence of a reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0% before any change in the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the market continues to hope for an interest rate adjustment in March and June, and also analyzes recent unemployment statistics, with an increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment assistance in the week to January 26 from 215.0 thousand. to 224.0 thousand, exceeding analysts' expectations by 212.0 thousand, and an increase in the number of repeat applications in the week to January 19 from 1.828 million to 1.898 million, contrary to the forecast of 1.840 million.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8665, 0.8700.Support levels: 0.8553, 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400.Crude Oil market analysisThe cost of WTI Crude Oil is experiencing a drop, being at the level of $ 74 per barrel.Oil price volatility continues against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions: the growing conflict between the Houthis of Yemen and the coalition of naval forces, whose goal is to protect peaceful navigation in the Red Sea. Bloomberg reports indicate a 50% decrease in tanker traffic through the Suez Canal, while the volume of maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope remains unchanged. This situation causes delays in delivery, affecting the increase in prices of goods. Experts cannot yet predict the impact of these events on oil supplies to the European Union, but there are suggestions of a potential shortage, given the rise in diesel prices above $ 1,000 per ton. At the same time, Russian oil transportation is experiencing lower risks. According to an analysis from Vortexa Ltd., despite the decline in shipments through the Red Sea since December, the last week showed that volumes are still 20% higher than the average for 2023. The representative of the Houthis, Muhammad Ali al-Buheiti, in an interview with RTL and N-tv, stressed that ships from Russia, China, and Germany are not targets for their actions.Resistance levels: 75.40, 79.10.Support levels: 72.70, ...

EUR/GBP: the euro is experiencing growth after December lowsThe EUR/GBP currency pair is seeing a moderate rise, reaching the level of 0.8567, moving away from the lows of December 11 and recovering from the losses of recent days. Investors are analyzing economic reports from the eurozone and the UK, assessing their impact on the upcoming policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, especially in the context of possible changes in interest rates.Wednesday brought data on the eurozone's core consumer price index, which showed an increase from 0.4% to 0.5% in December, in line with expectations of a delay in the transition to a softer monetary policy. It is also worth noting the recent speech by Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, who did not rule out a change in the cost of borrowing, but indicated that this would not happen until the summer of 2024. A Reuters poll of economists shows that most expect the ECB to cut interest rates in the second quarter, with 45.0% of respondents anticipating a change in rhetoric at the June meeting. At the moment, market participants are considering the possibility of a correction of 150 basis points during the year, although ECB representatives have recently expressed caution, not even excluding maintaining the current rate level for the whole of 2024. The pressure on the euro increased yesterday after the publication of data for November on construction production volumes, which showed an acceleration in the decline from -0.6% to -1.0% on a monthly basis and from -0.7% to -2.2% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 0.8585, 0.8611, 0.8632, 0.8656.Support levels: 0.8552, 0.8521, 0.8500, 0.8479.USD/CHF: moves to an uptrend this weekAs a result of the strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair showed strengthening, trying to overcome the resistance barrier at 0.8682.The pair's growth is fueled by the latest macroeconomic reports: the number of construction permits issued in December reached 1.495 million, which exceeds the forecast of 1.480 million, and the volume of new housing construction amounted to 1.460 million, ahead of expectations of 1.426 million.Meanwhile, in Switzerland, the average annual inflation rate in 2023 was 2.1%, caused by higher prices for electricity, gas and rental housing, while the cost of petroleum products, package communication services and medicines decreased. Local goods rose in price by 2.4%, while imported goods rose by 1.4%. For comparison, in 2022 and 2021, the average annual consumer price indices were 2.8% and 0.6%, respectively. Today's producer price indicator, the monthly indicator of which corresponds to analysts' forecasts at -0.6%, slowed its negative dynamics from -1.3% to -1.1% year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing difficulties in the national economy.Resistance levels: 0.8682, 0.8807, 0.8898.Support levels: 0.8541, 0.8387.USD/TRY: prospects for strengthening the lira are weakThe USD/TRY pair shows an increase, trading at around 30.1870, despite encouraging economic indicators from Turkey and the strengthening of the US dollar.Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) show that in December, the producer price index in agriculture increased by 6.34% over the month and by 52.66% year-on-year, largely due to an increase in fruit prices by 170.59%, eggs and poultry meat by 102.77%, legumes by 26.76% and fibrous crops by 25.93%. At the same time, the tense situation in the Red Sea has led to an increase in demand for transportation through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, the development of which is actively supported by Turkey.Therefore, despite the potential for growth and development of the Turkish economy, the strengthening of the Turkish lira seems unlikely, and the USD/TRY pair is expected to continue its positive movement.Resistance levels: 30.2925, 30.6011.Support levels: 30.0692, 29.7398.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, WTI Crude Oil prices show mixed changes, stabilizing around the 74.00 mark.The latest report from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) on the state of fuel reserves on January 12 indicates a decrease of 2.492 million barrels to 429.0 million barrels, which contradicts the previous increase of 1.338 million barrels and experts' forecasts of a decrease of 0.313 million barrels. The current level of oil and petroleum products reserves is about 3.0% below the average over the past five years. This week, investors will closely monitor the US data on the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market for December and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for January, which, according to forecasts, may increase from 69.7 to 70.0 points.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 73.00, 71.77, 71.00, ...

USD/TRY: the rise of the minimum wage in Turkey puts pressure on the value of the liraThe USD/TRY currency pair is gaining momentum in an uptrend, reaching a new historical high after the statement by Turkish Labor Minister Vedat Ishihan about a significant increase in the minimum wage in the country to 17,002 thousand liras this year. This step, which exceeds last year's figure by half, led to an accelerated increase in inflation: the December consumer price index jumped to 64.77%, reaching an annual maximum. The Central Bank of Turkey predicts a further increase in inflation to over 70.0% in May 2024, followed by a decrease to 36.0% by the end of the year.Technical factors continue to support the US dollar, which is also responding to recent economic reports. Data from ADP showed an increase in employment in the US private sector, and unemployment statistics indicate a decrease in the number of applications for benefits. These factors contribute to strengthening the position of the US dollar against the Turkish lira.Resistance levels: 29.8683, 30.0000, 30.1500, 30.3000.Support levels: 29.7012, 29.4861, 29.3000, 29.0589.USD/CAD: the US dollar is strengthening ahead of the release of labor market dataThe USD/CAD currency pair continues to strengthen, approaching the 1.3360 mark and updating recent highs.Today's restraint of traders is due to the upcoming publication of the report on the American labor market for December. Forecasts indicate a decrease in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 199.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the average hourly income will decrease from 4.0% to 3.9%. The market's attention is also focused on the recent ADP report, which showed an increase in employment in the US private sector to 164.0 thousand, exceeding expectations of 115.0 thousand. In addition, the decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits to 202.0 thousand. confirms the stability of the labor market. Information about a possible reduction in Fed rates by the end of the year, revealed in the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, also has a positive effect on the dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1 3250, 1.3200.GBP/USD: British services sector shows signs of business recoveryThe GBP/USD pair is hovering around 1.2680 in the Asian session, showing uncertainty in recovering positions lost at the beginning of the week, against the background of encouraging economic data from the UK.The index of business activity in the British services sector in December rose to a July high of 53.4 points from 50.9, raising the composite index to a six-month high of 52.1 points. In the banking sector, the volume of consumer loans increased to 2.005 billion pounds in November, and the number of approved mortgage loans increased to 50.07 thousand.On the other hand, the US dollar strengthened to 102.200 in USDX, reflecting positive data on the labor market: an increase in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector to 164.0 thousand in December and a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits to 202.0 thousand, which reduced the total number of applications to 1.855 million.Support levels: 1.2610, 1.2500.Resistance levels: 1.2730, 1.2830.Crude Oil Market AnalysisIn the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil prices are slightly rising, testing the 72.70 mark, expecting the week to close with a slight increase, while investors are taking a cautious position ahead of the December report on the US labor market.The increase in quotations was caused by the news about the explosions in Kerman, Iran, on the memorial day of General Qasem Suleimani, and the shutdown of production at the Libyan field producing about 300.0 thousand barrels per day due to protests.The market is going through a phase of global correction. According to the latest CFTC data, over the past week, net speculative positions in oil increased from 182.7 thousand to 199.3 thousand. In the context of the market balance, there is an increase in bullish positions among swap dealers to 18,382 thousand, while bearish positions amounted to 45,186 thousand. Over the past week, buyers slightly increased the number of contracts by 0.849 thousand, while sellers reduced them by 0.051 thousand, which indicates the wait-and-see position of market participants during this transition period.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 71.77, 71.00, 70.00, ...

EUR/USD: investors expect results on business sentiment in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, being at 1.0902, after moving away from the maximum values on August 11 over the past two days.Since the beginning of November, the euro has significantly strengthened against the background of positive changes in the economic situation. Data on business activity in key economic sectors of the EU countries is expected to be released today. It is expected that the index of manufacturing activity in France will increase from 42.8 to 43.1, in Germany - from 40.8 to 41.2, which contributes to an increase in the overall indicator for the EU to 43.4 from the previous 43.1. It is also assumed that the services indicator in France will rise from 45.2 to 45.6, in Germany - from 48.2 to 48.5, as a result of which the overall index for the eurozone will reach 48.1 compared to the previous 47.8.During the day, traders will expect the minutes of the ECB's November monetary policy meeting and a speech by the chairman of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. On Friday, Germany will present GDP data, with forecasts for quarterly adjustments from 0.0% to -0.1% and annual - from -0.2% to -0.3%. Christine Lagarde from the ECB is scheduled to speak tomorrow, where she can give additional information about the future monetary policy of the region.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1090.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0730.USD/TRY: Turkish president announced the strengthening of the Turkish liraDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair shows a slight decline, correcting after the recent sharp growth, and is currently at around 28.8300 ahead of new factors affecting the exchange rate.Trading activity is reduced due to the withdrawal of some investors from the market in connection with the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the market's attention will be focused on the S&P Global manufacturing activity index for November, which is projected to decrease from 50.0 to 49.8, as well as on the indicator of activity in the service sector, which may change from 50.6 to 50.4. Yesterday's data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits showed a decrease from 233.0 thousand to 209.0 thousand against the forecast of 225.0 thousand, and the number of repeated applications for the week to November 10 fell from 1.862 million to 1.84 million. Nevertheless, the October volume of orders for durable goods fell by -5.4%, after an increase of 4.6% earlier, which turned out to be worse than the expected decline of -3.1%.Resistance levels: 28.9000, 29.0000, 29.1000, 29.2000.Support levels: 28.7500, 28.6250, 28.5000, 28.4000.GBP/USD: the asset has moved away from the September highs and is stabilizing around the 1.2500 levelThe GBP/USD currency pair demonstrates unstable trading, being near the 1.2500 level. Yesterday, the pair showed a significant drop, moving away from the peak values on September 6, which was a consequence of the growth of corrective sentiment in the market. Investors have reduced their positions in the US dollar ahead of the Thanksgiving celebration.Meanwhile, the British pound did not receive support from the results of the hearings on the national budget and revised economic forecasts. UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt forecasts the country's economy to grow by 0.6% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024, in contrast to previous estimates in March, which predicted a 0.2% decline in GDP this year and a 1.8% growth next. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted from 2.5% to 1.4%. It is also planned to reduce the national debt at an average level by 0.7 billion pounds in the coming years. Hunt also noted the reduction of recession risks and the growth of real incomes of the population, and also decided to postpone the increase in excise taxes on alcohol until August 1 to stimulate business.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.Silver price analysisThe trading asset slightly strengthens its position, remaining near the level of 23.60. Trading activity is reduced due to the closure of trading platforms in the United States in connection with Thanksgiving.Silver is finding support in the market due to expectations of the completion of the current cycle of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve. Despite the relatively strong statements and minutes of the Fed suggesting the possibility of another rate hike, the market is already beginning to anticipate the beginning of a period of monetary policy easing. Some analysts suggest that the first rate cut in 2024 may occur as early as the March meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 23.83, 24.00, 24.20, 24.42.Support levels: 23.60, 23.32, 23.00, ...

USD/JPY: dollar is preparing to test the psychological levelThe USD/JPY currency pair is developing a moderate "bearish" vector of value, within the framework of the correction phase after a significant rise recorded last Friday. On the previous day, the currency instrument reached the highest level since October 20, 2022, approaching the key psychological threshold of 150.00. Traders continue to be anxious about the Bank of Japan's potential intervention in the yen's fluctuations, as it did in the previous year. Bank of Japan officials are currently taking a wait-and-see stance, however, recent statements from the head of this financial institution, Kazuo Ueda, have been entirely focused on discussing the inflationary situation.Today's easing of US Dollar-related tensions is partly due to anticipation of upcoming speeches by senior US Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell. FX market participants are expecting to hear additional indications of possible interest rate hikes in the coming months. This expectation is based on recent remarks by Neel Kashkari, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who has already energized the bull market with his previous comments. There is also growing concern among market participants about the situation regarding the U.S. budget passage for the next fiscal year. Just as many issues still cannot be agreed upon, the Senate has been asked to approve a temporary funding bill to avoid a federal government shutdown starting October 1.Resistance levels: 149.69, 150.00, 150.50, 151.00.Support levels: 149.00, 148.47, 148.00, 147.36.USD/TRY: lira's decline continuesDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair shows moderate strengthening, approaching 27.3525. On the previous day, the pair reached an all-time high near 27.8100, thanks to the strengthening of the dollar.The Turkish lira is under pressure due to domestic economic factors. Despite decisive measures of the Turkish Central Bank to tighten monetary policy, the lira failed to strengthen its position. Inflationary concerns continue to rise even though the regulator has raised the key rate four times since June, totaling 21.5%. In August, the inflation rate settled at 9.09% month-on-month and 58.94% year-on-year. According to officials, high domestic demand, changes in wage levels, exchange rates, and the rising cost of energy resources and services are contributing to the rise in inflation. In light of this, the USD/TRY currency pair has added 2.6% over the past month, and is up about 48.0% year-to-date. Turkey's central bank aims to reduce inflation to 5.0% by 2024.Resistance levels: 27.5000, 27.7500, 28.0000, 28.2500.Support levels: 27.2166, 27.0000, 26.7500, 26.5000.Silver Price AnalysisAlong with the strengthening economic situation in the USA, which exceeded the initial forecasts, the precious metals market is facing sales. The reason for this is investors' preference in favor of the dollar, given the current policy of high interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and their probable further retention at high levels. The XAG/USD pair is now at 22.57.Last week, the Federal Reserve did not change the level of interest rates, leaving them at 5.50%. There were also signals about the possibility of one more rate hike in the current cycle before the monetary policy review begins. This caused the dollar to strengthen against other currencies, which in turn sent silver down 2.50%. However, Chinese investors actively buying gold may give a boost to the value of other precious metals. At the moment, the precious metals market in China is showing record highs of over $100.0 per ounce compared to the ten-year average of $6.0.Resistance levels: 23.60, 24.35, 25.20.Support levels: 22.64, 22.18, 20.95.Crude Oil Market AnalysisBrent Crude Oil prices surpassed the 96.00 threshold and are moving towards 100.00 after the Cushing inventory level fell to an alarming low, highlighting the global decline in fuel supply.Data on hydrocarbon reserves in the United States, published yesterday, showed that over the last week their volume decreased by 2.170 million barrels, which was below expectations, which suggested a decrease of 1.320 million. At the same time, the indicator for Cushing, a key hub of oil supplies in the United States, decreased by 0.943 million, reaching the lowest values since the summer of 2022. Experts agree that this trend is a result of Saudi Arabia and Russia's actions under OPEC+, which impose restrictions on production, causing a shortage. Due to rising demand, many nations are actively using their oil reserves to avoid a sharp price spike. Since the summer months, the cost of Brent Crude Oil has risen approximately 28% and continues its climb.OPEC's outlook also plays in favor of rising oil prices: the organization is forecasting an oil deficit of 3.0 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Given the stable demand in China and the US, experts assume that prices may overcome the psychological boundary of 100.00.Resistance levels: 95.60, 100.10, 104.50.Support levels: 92.05, 87.64, ...

The Turkish lira continues to rewrite historical lows. Over the past year, it has weakened by 110% against the dollar, which has earned the status of one of the worst investments in the world. We understand the reasons for such a rapid decline and the risks for the global financial system.Hawks vs. PigeonsBack in March 2021, the then head of the Central Bank of Turkey, Naji Agbal, raised the key rate from 17 to 19%. The reason for the tight monetary policy is high inflation, which by that time had reached almost 16%. The high rate was planned to be kept until the price increase was stopped.Agbala's "hawkish" rhetoric was not to the taste of the country's president Erdogan, who believes that the rigid PREP, on the contrary, only accelerates inflation. As a result, the chair of the head of the Central Bank was occupied by Sahap Kavcioglu, who supports the opinion of the national leader.Since September, a gradual reduction in the key rate has begun: from 19 to 14%. The last decline occurred on December 16, it served as another trigger for the weakening of the Turkish lira. In November, official inflation exceeded 20%, and the Central Bank failed to slow down the fall of the national currency, even thanks to the active sale of dollars.What are the forecasts?The depreciation of the Turkish lira has a negative impact primarily on the financial situation of the Turkish population. In real terms, the key rate is, in fact, negative, which only accelerates the growth of consumer prices.There are no prerequisites that the situation will change in the foreseeable future. Erdogan and his supporters continue to believe that there is no alternative to an investment-oriented policy.S&P rating agency has changed its outlook for Turkey from stable to negative. The national debt is growing, gold and foreign exchange reserves are shrinking, and the Central Bank of the country continues to lower the key rate against the background of increased inflation.A full-scale crisis in Turkey is capable of provoking a wave of sales in emerging markets, to which Russia belongs. We could observe a kind of rehearsal of the withdrawal of international investors from global asset risks on Monday, December ...