USD/TRY Trading forecasts and signals

USD/TRY: Turkey's inflation decline below 10% is expected by the end of 2026During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair demonstrates a multidirectional movement, consolidating at 34.2700 against the background of US macroeconomics data, while market activity remains weak.The October report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment showed an increase from 159.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 115.0 thousand. However, US GDP for the third quarter decreased from 3.0% to 2.8%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. If negative trends continue, the US Federal Reserve may continue to ease monetary policy after a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The actions of the regulator will be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential elections on November 5: if the representative of the Republican Party Donald Trump wins, the US tariff policy may change, which will require a stronger national currency. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), a report on the labor market for October is expected to be published: it is predicted that the number of new jobs outside agriculture will decrease from 254.0 thousand to 111.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage growth will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention will be focused on the September personal consumption expenditure index: the base indicator may slow down from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms and accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3% on a monthly basis.The lira is under pressure due to the unstable economic situation inside the country, although there are signs of optimism. The media reports that the Central Bank of Turkey plans to reduce the interest rate in December from 50.00% to 48.25%, after the regulator left it at the same level for the seventh time in a row on October 17. Annual inflation fell from 51.97% to 49.38% in September, breaking the 50.0% mark for the first time in more than a year. Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that due to strict fiscal and monetary policy, inflation could fall to 10.00% by the end of 2026. He also noted that the Central Bank's reserves have increased by $ 100.0 billion over the past year and a half, and the level of public debt to GDP is 26.0%, which gives Turkey an advantage in terms of economic development.Resistance levels: 34.3096, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/JPY: the interest rate of the Bank of Japan remained 0.25%The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs on July 31, reached at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 152.90 for a breakdown downwards, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market.Today, investors are focused on the results of the Bank of Japan meeting: the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, which coincided with expectations. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the bank, has noted in recent months that any changes will depend on the fulfillment of forecasts for inflation and economic growth, as well as on external factors. Some analysts believe that the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, may increase concern among investors and affect the Japanese market. In the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, the bank forecasts the consumer price index to remain at 2.5%, with a possible decrease to 1.9% next year, which is below the target of 2.0%. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%. The monetary authorities are under pressure from the domestic political situation: the October 27 elections to the lower house of parliament led to the loss of the majority by the ruling coalition, which forces it to seek new partners or form a minority government.Retail sales statistics in Japan also put pressure on the yen: in September, their annual growth slowed sharply from 2.8% to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than preliminary forecasts of 2.3%, and on a monthly basis the indicator decreased by 2.3% after an increase of 1.0% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.50, 155.50, 156.50.Support levels: 152.50, 151.50, 150.50, 150.00.AUD/USD: inflation boosted confidence in the RBA's soft positionThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics during the Asian session on October 31, holding near the level of 0.6570, under pressure from Australian macroeconomic statistics.Retail sales in September fell sharply from 0.7% to 0.1% with a forecast 0.3%, and in the third quarter the indicator increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% after falling by 3.9% a month earlier, and year-on-year growth accelerated from 3.6% to 6.8%. Additionally, Chinese statistics attracted investors' attention: the index of business activity in the service sector in October rose from 50.0 to 50.2 points, which fell short of expectations of 50.4 points, and the manufacturing index from the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Supply increased from 49.8 to 50.1 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.0 points.On the eve of the Australian inflation data put pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The consumer price index in September decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%, and in the quarter — from 1.0% to 0.2%, with an expected 0.3%. The figures reached a three-year low amid electricity subsidies and lower gasoline prices, but price growth in the service sector remains high, forcing the RBA to maintain a "hawkish" position in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6675.Support levels: 0.6536, 0.6500, 0.6456, 0.6420.Gold Market analysisAs of October 31, 2024, the price of gold is $2,786.44 per ounce, which is 0.21% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals in the context of global economic and geopolitical challenges.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of the gold market. The Fed maintains a restrained position on interest rates, given the stabilizing inflation, which remains near the target level of 2%. However, higher Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are supporting interest in American assets. Despite this, gold retains its position due to uncertainty in the global economy and expectations of possible adjustments to the Fed's policy. US GDP figures for the third quarter exceeded forecasts, showing growth of 2.4%, which added confidence in the stability of the economy and the continuation of current policies. Also at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States is expected to be published, which serves as a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Analysts predict that the indicator in September will remain at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis, which will confirm the stability of current inflation. This event may put pressure on the gold exchange rate, as confirmation of stable inflation may deter the Fed from easing policy. At 16:00 (GMT+2), data on the ISM manufacturing activity index for October will be presented. The indicator is expected to decrease to 49.5 points from the previous level of 50.0, which indicates a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. A decrease in the index may support gold quotes, as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the United States.Resistance levels: $2,800 and $2,820.Support levels: $2,775 and ...

EUR/GBP: minutes of the ECB meeting in the focus of investors' attentionThe EUR/GBP pair is showing a moderate recovery, regaining positions after the "bearish" dynamics observed at the beginning of the week. The exchange rate is testing the 0.8380 level for an upward breakout, while traders are evaluating fresh macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the UK.In Germany, the consumer price index for September remained at 1.6% year-on-year, while the monthly indicator remained unchanged, fixed at 0.0%. The harmonized CPI index increased by 1.8% year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Investors are also analyzing the minutes of the September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), where a reduction in inflationary pressure was discussed. Most ECB representatives called for further easing of monetary policy, despite the fact that inflation remains noticeable. At the same time, experts fear a possible slowdown in economic growth and admit that inflation may remain below the target level of 2.0% for a long time. The market expects that the ECB may cut rates twice more by the end of the year.The economic situation in the UK is also of interest. The country's GDP increased by 0.2% in August after stagnating in the previous month, while industrial production fell by 1.6% year-on-year, exceeding the projected -0.5%. At the same time, the monthly growth was 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The manufacturing sector showed a decrease of 0.3% compared to -2.0% in July, while monthly growth was 1.1%. Business activity in the services sector slowed to 0.1% in August, against 0.6% in July, which was below forecasts of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8433.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8350, 0.8338, 0.8326.USD/TRY: analysts predict a rate cut in JanuaryIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows a recovery after the unstable dynamics of this week, again testing the 34.2800 mark for an upward breakdown and updating the highs from August 28. The pair's movement is due to the publication of inflation data in the United States, which supported the American currency.Experts interviewed by Reuters suggest that the Central Bank of Turkey will change its plans to ease monetary policy. Out of ten respondents, six believe that the rate cut from the current 50.00% will take place in December, while four predict that it will happen in January. Most analysts expect an initial decrease of 250 basis points (to 47.50%), and one of the experts suggests a reduction of 500 basis points at once. These forecasts are in line with the expectations of economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Industrial production data for August will be published today, October 11, in Turkey at 10:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous month, which may strengthen the lira against the background of positive economic signals. At 12:00 (GMT+2), employment data will also be released, which will help assess the overall state of the labor market in Turkey and may affect expectations for inflation and the future policy of the Central Bank. In addition, tomorrow, October 12, at 11:00 (GMT+2), a report on Turkey's current account balance for August is expected to be published, which, according to forecasts, will show a deficit of $3.5 billion. This event may put pressure on the Turkish lira if the actual data exceed expectations, which indicates an increase in foreign economic risks for the country.Resistance levels: 34.3000, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/CHF: the decline in US inflation turned out to be weaker than expectedThe USD/CHF pair is at 0.8571 and shows potential for further growth, while the Swiss franc remains one of the most stable currencies among developed economies, thanks to stable macroeconomic indicators.The Swiss National Bank, according to a statement by its vice-chairman Antoine Martin, aims to continue reducing interest rates until the end of the year. Martin noted that key inflation and economic growth targets have been achieved, which allows the regulator to consider the possibility of another reduction by 25 basis points. This year, the cost of borrowing has already been adjusted three times, and in September 2024, the consumer price index reached the lowest level in the last three years — 0.8%. According to Martin, in the long term, the bank intends to return to negative interest rates, which, as before, will be an important incentive to attract investments into the economy.At the same time, the US dollar is at 102.60 on the USDX index, which is the highest since mid-August. A decrease in inflation in the United States from 2.5% to 2.4% in annual terms, while an increase in the basic consumer price index to 3.3% did not put significant pressure on the dollar. This dynamic may signal a further reduction in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, but with minimal changes — by 25 basis points. Investors expect the Fed to make two such cuts by the end of the year, but San Francisco Fed Governor Mary Daley noted that the final decision would depend on incoming data, and the pace of adjustments could be adjusted.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8750.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8400.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed dynamics, remaining around the $75.00 per barrel mark. In the previous session, the instrument showed a noticeable increase, largely due to the publication of US inflation data for September.A significant factor supporting the quotes is the high demand for fuel in the United States, which increased against the background of a major hurricane that struck the state of Florida. In response to the approaching disaster, many oil companies have taken precautions by closing some platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. For example, Chevron Corp. It stopped the operation of one of its drilling rigs, which produced about 65 thousand barrels of oil per day.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide additional support for oil. Recall that on October 1, Iran fired more than 180 missiles in the direction of Israel, which was in response to the Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Lebanon, which killed one of the leaders of the Hezbollah group. These events raise concerns in the market about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is a strategic route for oil transportation: up to 21% of the world's daily oil consumption passes through it.Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00.Support levels: 74.00, 73.00, 72.17, ...

EUR/GBP: ECB has reduced all key interest ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing an uncertain decline, continuing to develop the downward trend that began to form the day before. The instrument is testing support at 0.8430, and traders are assessing the consequences of the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced at yesterday's meeting.The ECB has decided to reduce the key interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, while also reducing the refinancing rate and margin loans. This decision was expected and was due to a decrease in business activity in the region and a slowdown in consumer price growth. Despite this, inflation in the eurozone countries remains high, especially in the service sector, which led to a revision of the forecasts for core inflation for 2024 and 2025. In the updated forecasts, the economic growth rate was adjusted downward — from 0.9% to 0.8% this year and from 1.4% to 1.3% next year. However, disagreements remain within the ECB: Some officials advocate further rate cuts due to the slowdown in economic activity, while others urge caution for fear of renewed inflationary pressures.Meanwhile, British investors are analyzing possible steps by the Bank of England, although the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the next meeting looks insignificant after the recent 25 basis point rate cut. Economic activity in the UK remains weak — gross domestic product (GDP) showed zero growth in July for the second month in a row. Industrial production is also showing a decline: in annual terms, volumes decreased by 1.2%, and in monthly terms — by 0.8%. The country's manufacturing sectors are facing a more severe slowdown than expected, which raises additional concerns among analysts.Resistance levels: 0.8450, 0.8465, 0.8483, 0.8500.Support levels: 0.8430, 0.8410, 0.8391, 0.8370.USD/CHF: dollar lost ground after reaching local peaksThe USD/CHF pair shows a slight decrease, continuing to develop a weak "bearish" trend, which formed after the instrument rolled back from the local highs recorded on August 21. The pair is currently trading near the 0.8500 level, trying to break through this support downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic data that may affect further market dynamics.Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), the release of five-year inflation expectations and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected. Forecasts suggest that inflation expectations will remain at 3.0% or show a slight decrease, and consumer confidence is likely to increase to 68.0 points from the previous 67.9. These data are unlikely to have a strong impact on expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for next week. Most analysts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate, although the probability of a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction is estimated at 20.0-25.0%. It is also expected that the Fed's accompanying statement may signal further rate cuts before the end of the year.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place the day before. The ECB has decided to reduce the interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, and also allowed for the possibility of further changes in monetary policy before the end of the year. This decision may put pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is likely to revise its monetary parameters at a meeting scheduled for September 26.Resistance levels: 0.8541, 0.8570, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/TRY: 15.0 thousand companies have closed in Turkey since JanuaryAfter three days of decline, which led to an update of the minimum of September 9, the USD/TRY pair began to recover and approached the level of 34.0000. However, market activity is noticeably decreasing amid expectations of a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, where monetary policy issues will be discussed.At the same time, Turkish business is facing serious difficulties due to high inflation, which exceeded 75% at the beginning of the year, instability of the lira exchange rate, rising electricity prices and a decrease in export orders. In the first seven months of 2024, 15.0 thousand companies in Turkey reported closures, an increase of 28% compared to the same period last year. Markets hope for a stabilization of the situation by the end of the year, but the Central Bank of Turkey has kept the interest rate at 50% for more than five months. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had previously expressed hope for inflation to fall below 50% in September, the latest report for August showed a slowdown in consumer price growth from 61.78% to 51.97%.Against this background, the international agency Fitch upgraded Turkey's credit rating from "B+" to "BB-", noting an improvement in foreign economic conditions and a reduction in foreign currency liabilities. At the same time, experts warn that premature easing of monetary policy may once again increase inflationary risks and pose a threat to macroeconomic stability and the balance of payments.Resistance levels: 34.0000, 34.0939, 34.2325, 34.3000.Support levels: 33.9022, 33.8000, 33.6722, 33.5450.AUD/NZD: New Zealand economic growth puts pressure on AUDAs of September 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD pair is trading near the level of 1.0869, showing slight fluctuations against the background of conflicting data from New Zealand and Australia. After several attempts to break through the support level at 1.0800, the pair shows a tendency to sideways movement, which is associated with instability in both economies.Economic data from New Zealand, such as strong growth in consumer spending and improved employment figures, support the New Zealand dollar. According to analysts, New Zealand's economic activity may grow by 1.1% in the third quarter, which is higher than expected for Australia, where economic growth is slowing. In turn, Australia is facing weakening demand for commodities and a decline in business activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently left the interest rate at 4.10%, which disappointed investors who expected more decisive steps to combat the slowdown in the economy.Experts note that, despite the short-term strength of the New Zealand dollar, a steady recovery in the Australian economy and a possible increase in RBA interest rates in the future may return the Australian dollar to a more confident position against the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1020.Support levels: 1.0800, ...

EUR/USD: growth after the minimum level was set in AugustThe euro/dollar exchange rate shows a slight rise after the previous decline, as a result of which the currency pair reached new local lows recorded on August 19. At the moment, it may be possible to find the 1.1050 mark, pending the release of data on the introduction into the manufacturing sector of Eurasia, Scheduled for 11:00 (GMT+2).According to analysts' expectations, the producer price index should slow down from 0.5% to 0.3% in July, and its annual growth is projected from -3.2% to -2.5%. Despite the publication of these data, it is unlikely that this will significantly affect the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy. This is especially important in the context of the preparation of the US Federal Reserve System for lowering interest rates in September. According to Reuters sources, some ECB officials believe that the eurozone economy continues to weaken, and the risk of recession remains, as many companies are cutting staff. This puts pressure on consumer spending, which requires a more aggressive rate cut by the regulator. In particular, the same as in the case of similar data on business activity in the world: expect that the commercial injection will produce the public sector from S&P, the global indicator was at the level of 51.2 punts, the indicator for Russian companies was 53.3 punts.In the end, it was data on equity activity due to investments in enterprise management (ISM): the index in the manufacturing sector increased from 46.8 to 47.2 points, but stopped in the field of visibility. This result indicates a slowdown in the industrial sector, which contributes to expectations of a policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Most experts predict that by the end of the year the rate will be reduced three times by a total of 100 basis points. Today, markets are waiting for the publication of data on production orders and the monthly report of the Federal Reserve — the so-called "Beige Book", which may influence future rate decisions. Current forecasts suggest a possible rate cut of 50 basis points with a probability of about 30%.Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243.Support levels: 1.1047, 1.1000, 1.0964, 1.0930.USD/CHF: astronomical index reached its highest in two yearsDuring the Asian session, the dollar/franc pair is trying to overcome support at 0.8480, continuing to develop the downward trend that formed earlier after the US dollar declined from its peak values of August 23.On Monday, US trading floors were closed due to the celebration of Labor Day, and the attention of market participants switched to macroeconomic data from Switzerland. In July, retail sales in real terms increased from -2.6% to 2.7%, exceeding forecasts that expected values of -0.2%. The manufacturing industry recorded quarterly growth of 2.6%, and the construction industry — by 0.1%, but retail trade declined by 0.4% after two quarters of growth. Consumer spending in April-June increased by 0.3%, and government spending by 0.2%, while exports decreased by 5.0% and imports by 13.8%. The business activity index for August rose from 43.5 to 49.0 points, exceeding preliminary expectations of 44.0 points. Swiss GDP growth in the second quarter was also in the spotlight: the indicator increased from 0.5% to 0.7% in quarterly terms and from 0.6% to 1.8% annually. In addition, the consumer price index in August slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, remaining at around 0.0% in both annual and monthly terms. The decrease in inflation increased pressure on the Swiss National Bank in the context of further changes in interest rates, which were reduced by 25 basis points during the meeting on June 20.Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365, 0.8331.USD/TRY: rates in Turkey rose to 51.97%The price in US dollars/EUROS is a moderate strengthening, as a result of which you reach a maximum amount of 34.0000. The position of the US dollar remains under pressure, mainly due to the high probability of a change in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming September meeting. In the baseline scenario, a rate cut of 25 basis points is expected, but upcoming economic reports may make adjustments. If labor market indicators weaken, the probability of a more significant rate cut — by 50 basis points — will increase. Analysts predict an increase in the number of new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector in August from 114.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage may increase from 3.6% to 3.7% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% monthly. The unemployment rate is also expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. In the evening at 20:00 (Moscow time+2), market participants will follow the publication of the US Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a monthly report on the state of the economy that covers 12 federal districts and contains data on industry, agriculture, consumer spending, the real estate market and other key sectors. The administration, just in case, turns to the administration in the private sector.Meanwhile, the pressure on the Turkish lira remains in the face of the difficult economic situation in the country. Turkey's GDP grew by only 2.5% in the second quarter, which was the worst indicator since 2020. Consumer spending slowed to 1.6% after 7.0% in the previous period, while government spending was about 0.7%. Inflation in Turkey decreased significantly in August: from 61.78% to 51.97% on an annual basis, and from 3.23% to 2.47% on a monthly basis. The Turkish authorities expect the consumer price index to decrease to 40% by the end of the year. In response to the rapid fall of the lira, the Central Bank of Turkey has taken a number of measures to strengthen liquidity and increase deposits in the national currency. Among them: increasing growth targets for banks to increase the share of deposits in lira, including corporate accounts with currency protection in the calculation of these indicators, as well as increasing mandatory reserves in lira on blocked accounts by 5.0%.Resistance levels: 34.0800, 34.2325, 34.3000, 34.4091.Support levels: 34.0000, 33.9022, 33.8000, 33.6722.GBP/CAD: Canadian GDP data supported the growth of the national currencyThe GBP/CAD pair is in the currency range at 1.7670 at the level of September 4. Over the past day, the pair has decreased by 0.40% compared to the previous session, which is due to the general weakness of the pound against the background of mixed economic data from the UK and the influence of external factors on the Canadian dollar. Investors are waiting for comments from the Bank of England (BoE), which may be an addition to the policy towards Russia.The economic situation in the UK remains tense. The following data on the business activity index (PMI) for 2018 indicate a decrease in the indicator in the service sector to 47.9%, which indicates a focus on a key topic for acoustics. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter showed growth of only 0.2%, which is lower than forecasts of 0.3%, and reinforces expectations that the Bank of England may begin to reduce interest rates in the coming months. We expect that investments in the UK will increase to 6.8% per year due to investments in September, which may weaken the impact on you in the context of the Far East.In Canada, the situation also remains influenced by macroeconomic factors. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, which was higher than the expected 1.8%. However, despite the positive data, the Canadian dollar faced pressure due to falling oil prices. In particular, oil prices fell to $82.25 per barrel, due to an understanding of demand from construction China and weak business partners in Russia. In addition, the Bank of Canada is expected to decide to lower interest rates at the next meeting if the slowdown in economic growth continues.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, ...

EUR/USD: asset correction pending ECB decisionThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to follow the corrective trend, holding at 1.0888, despite the temporary weakening of the US dollar and balanced economic indicators from the European Union.In May, the indicator of business activity in the Spanish service sector increased from 56.2 to 56.9 points. In Italy, the index fell slightly from 54.3 to 54.2 points, in France it decreased from 51.3 to 49.3 points, while in Germany it increased from 53.2 to 54.2 points. The overall index for the region was 53.2 points, slightly lower than the previous value of 53.3 points, which demonstrates the stability of a key sector of the EU economy against the background of strict monetary policy and a slowdown in the labor market. A meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled today at 14:15 GMT+2, at which it is expected that the regulator may take steps towards a softer monetary policy. Analysts foresee a possible rate cut of 25 basis points in response to deteriorating economic conditions tending to recession in some areas. During a subsequent press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde may also outline the potential for additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 1.0934, 1.1041.Support levels: 1.0815, 1.0735.USD/CHF: the risks associated with the liquidation of majority banks are outlinedDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a moderate decline, testing the level of 0.8910 after the previous growth provoked by the published positive economic statistics from the United States.To date, traders are analyzing unemployment data in Switzerland, where the seasonally adjusted rate increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, while excluding these fluctuations it remained at 2.3%. Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Zutter expressed the view that international organizations should carefully consider the potential risks associated with the liquidation of large banks. She cited the example of Credit Suisse Group AG, which on May 31 announced the completion of the merger process with UBS AG, ending its 168-year history. The Minister stressed that it is important that large banking institutions provide adequate financial support to their branches so that the capital of foreign subsidiaries is sufficient and can be used without risk to the financial well-being of the Swiss parent company during crisis periods.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.8964, 0.9000, 0.9037.Support levels: 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8839, 0.8800.USD/TRY: Turkish inflation returned to peaks in November 2022The USD/TRY currency pair demonstrates changeable trading activity, stabilizing around the level of 32.2150. The market is in a state of expectation, as bidders are looking for new factors that can influence the policy of the US Federal Reserve on borrowing rates.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to domestic economic problems. In May, the annual inflation index in Turkey reached the highest values in the last year and a half, reaching 75.45%. The most significant price increase over the year was recorded in the education sector (+104.8%), while in the clothing and footwear segment there was the least growth (+50.85%). Prices for residential real estate increased by 93.21%, for alcohol and tobacco — by 86.48%, and in the category of "hotels, cafes and restaurants" — by 92.94%. According to Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek, inflation was expected to peak in May. This month, the authorities expect a correction in inflation, which is facilitated by an increase in business activity due to the tourist season. The annual inflation rate is expected to decrease to less than 50.0% by the end of the third quarter, and in subsequent years it will fall to 33.2% and 21.3%, respectively.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/CAD: interest rate in Canada has been reduced to 4.75%The USD/CAD currency pair continues to fluctuate between 1.3725–1.2625, even despite the recent decision of the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates.The regulator lowered the key rate by 0.25 points to 4.75%, which was the first such decrease in the last four years and in line with analysts' forecasts. According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, the country's economy is on track to achieve the inflation target of 2.0%, based on a number of macroeconomic data. Macklem also pointed out that with the continued slowdown in inflation, additional reductions in the cost of loans may follow. Nevertheless, despite monetary measures, USD/CAD quotes reached the upper limit of the specified range, but could not overcome it due to subsequent unfavorable data from the United States. In particular, in May, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) fell to 47.1 points, falling below expectations of 47.2 points, and the price index amounted to 58.1 points against the predicted 59.0. The indicator from S&P Global remained at 54.8 points, in line with expectations. In addition, data from ADP showed a decrease in private sector employment from 188.0 thousand to 152.0 thousand, which also turned out to be lower than preliminary estimates of 173.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.3725, 1.3775, 1.3830.Support levels: 1.3625, 1.3595, ...

EUR/USD: downward trend may intensifyThe EUR/USD pair has shown continuous growth since the middle of last month, as investors hoped for an early adjustment of monetary policy in the United States. However, this week the pair reached the level of 1.0864 Murray [6/8], after which it began to adjust downwards.Today, the negative dynamics slowed down due to the publication of data on business activity in the eurozone. In May, the indices showed the highest growth rates for the current year: the index for the industrial sector rose from 45.7 to 47.4 points, the index for the service sector increased from 51.7 to 52.3 points, and the composite index reached 53.3 points. However, the long-term fundamentals remain unfavorable. Experts predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) will switch to monetary policy easing earlier than the US Federal Reserve System (Fed).Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0620, 1.0559.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation at three-year lowThe USD/CAD pair demonstrates a multidirectional trading dynamics, holding near the 1.3685 mark, which is close to the local highs on May 9, which were updated the day before. On Wednesday, the instrument was supported by the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on May 1.Investors continue to analyze the April statistics on inflation in Canada, published on Tuesday. The consumer price index decreased from 2.9% to 2.7% year-on-year and from 0.6% to 0.5% month-on-month. The base index also showed a decrease: from 2.0% to 1.6% in annual terms and from 0.5% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. According to Statistics Canada, the slowdown in overall inflation was caused by lower prices for food, services and durable goods. The decrease in the cost of motor fuel also contributed: excluding this factor, the annual consumer price index dropped to 2.5% from 2.8%. Thus, inflation approached the Bank of Canada's target level of 2.0%. In April, the governor of the regulator, Tiff Macklem, said that it was necessary to obtain confirmation of a steady easing of price pressure before starting to adjust the cost of borrowing. At the April meeting, the monetary authorities left the interest rate at 5.00%, the highest since 2001.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580.USD/TRY: Turkey plans full regulation of cryptocurrency transactionsDuring the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows moderate growth, striving to break through the level of 32.2000, in the expectation that the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System will remain unchanged for a long time.The Turkish lira is under pressure due to the difficult economic situation in the country, where inflation exceeds 69.0%. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics (Turkstat), the consumer price index increased from 68.5% to 69.80% year-on-year, which is the highest value since November 2022. Despite this, the official authorities declare an increase in confidence in the national economy and hope for a gradual change in the negative trend.Meanwhile, the Justice and Development Party of Turkey has put forward a bill aimed at full control over transactions with digital assets, including taxation of their purchase and sale. The bill also provides rules for licensing trading platforms, exchanges and brokers, as well as regulating their relationships with customers. These measures are necessary to exit the "grey list" of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF). In addition, the document assumes the participation of the Council for Scientific and Technological Research of Turkey in joint work, which contributes to the development of blockchain technologies and related software in the country.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.Silver market overviewSilver is showing a moderate decline, developing the bearish momentum that formed the day before. The quotes have retreated from the recent high at 32.50 and are testing the 30.40 mark for a downward breakdown. Traders are carefully assessing the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the world's leading central banks.Yesterday, the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published. As expected, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted a significant slowdown in the decline in inflation, which may take longer to reach the target levels of 2.0%. Some officials did not rule out the possibility of further tightening monetary policy if necessary. In addition, the April statistics on inflation in the UK attracted the attention of investors. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% in annual terms, which turned out to be higher than the projected 2.1%, and on a monthly basis — from 0.6% to 0.3%, with expectations of 0.2%. The base rate decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while analysts had predicted 3.6%. Against this background, market participants reduced their expectations regarding a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England in June.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.75, 31.13, 31.70.Support levels: 30.15, 29.84, 29.35, ...

EUR/GBP: the interest rate of the European Central Bank remained at 4.50%The euro is at low levels compared to most major currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair shows a corrective movement in morning trading, settling at 0.8541.At yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), officials, as expected, left the main monetary rates unchanged (the main rate is 4.50%, the marginal rate is 4.75%, the deposit rate is 4.00%) and expressed readiness to reduce them if inflationary pressure decreases. Regulators confirmed that the current slowdown in consumer price growth is in line with medium-term expectations, due to lower prices for food and household goods, but did not specify the timing of a possible change in interest rates. It also announced plans to complete the reinvestment program for emergency asset purchases due to COVID-19 by the end of the year and significantly reduce the asset purchase program. The reduction of the emergency procurement program is taking place at a rate of 7.5 billion euros per month, which will allow it to be completed by the end of November or December.UK economic growth remains weak: in February, GDP growth was, as expected, only 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%, and this led to a decrease in annual growth to -0.2%. Among the main factors of such dynamics are industrial production, which increased by 1.1%, improving the annual rate to 1.4%, and the construction sector, where a decrease of 1.9% on a monthly basis and 2.0% year-on-year was recorded.Resistance levels: 0.8560, 0.8600.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8480.USD/TRY: Investors tend to take profits after a week of growthThe USD/TRY currency pair shows ambiguous trends, holding near the level of 32.3165. Traders are refraining from opening new positions on Friday due to the expectation of a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as due to the profit-taking mood after moderate growth during the week. Earlier, the US dollar was helped by inflation data, which increased investors' doubts about the imminent reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate by 25 basis points in June.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to economic difficulties in the country. Despite the efforts of monetary authorities and a significant increase in rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, annual inflation accelerated from 67.07% in February to 68.50% in March. At the same time, independent analysts from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) record an annual price increase of more than 120%. Additionally, on April 9, the Turkish Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on the export of 54 categories of goods to Israel, including cement, glass, iron, aluminum and steel, which puts additional pressure on the already strained construction sector. These sanctions, in effect until the end of hostilities and the creation of conditions for free humanitarian aid to Gaza, are likely to raise prices for both Israeli and Turkish consumers.Resistance levels: 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000.Support levels: 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306.NZD/USD: the US currency has reached a new recordThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction near the 0.5995 level, as the New Zealand currency is facing difficulties in trying to regain its position against the background of disappointing macroeconomic statistics.The March report showed that spending via e-cards in New Zealand decreased by 0.7%, which in absolute terms is a decrease of NZ$ 45 million compared to February. Compared to March of the previous year, 2023, the total amount of expenses decreased by 3.0%. This decrease was recorded in almost all key sectors of the economy: of the seven main sectors, only wholesale trade, with the exception of services, showed an increase of 2.1%. The biggest deterioration was seen in the sectors related to sales of clothing and motor vehicles, each of which showed a 2.2% drop. There was also a decrease in the fuel sectors by 1.4%, durable goods by 0.3% and consumables by 0.2%.These data indicate continued pressure on the New Zealand economy, which negatively affects the national currency and contributes to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The lack of significant improvement in economic indicators may continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil have stabilized at 85.09 in a sideways trend driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and seasonal growth in global fuel demand.The situation in the Middle East remains tense with expectations of possible Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which has led to warnings for citizens of some countries to visit the region. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report predicted that global oil demand will increase to 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, and decrease to 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. A seasonal increase in fuel consumption is also expected in the second quarter: demand for aviation kerosene will grow by 600 thousand barrels per day, for gasoline — by 400 thousand, and for diesel fuel — by 200 thousand barrels per day.Resistance levels: 86.30, 90.00.Support levels: 84.00, ...

EUR/USD: Eurozone sentiment index signals improved prospectsThe EUR/USD currency pair follows the correction rate, being at 1.0823.Market activity has slowed in recent days due to traders' preference to avoid new deals amid the approaching Easter weekend, although economic data looks relatively favorable. For example, the consumer price index in Spain increased from 0.4% to 0.8% on a monthly basis in March and from 2.8% to 3.2% year-on-year. The index, harmonized with EU standards, showed an increase of 1.3% for the month, reaching the highest value since June 2022 and accelerating from 2.9% to 3.2% year-on-year. The EU consumer confidence index fell from -14.9 to -15.5 points, inflation expectations rose from 3.9 to 5.6 points, and the index of expectations in the service sector rose from 6.0 to 6.3 points. Market optimism is fueled by the anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Today, the chairman of the Bank of Italy, Piero Cipollone, expressed confidence that inflation will fall to the target level of 2.0% by mid-2025, based on a slowdown in wage growth, which may be the basis for adapting monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0980.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0700.USD/TRY: tourist growth in Turkey reached 22.68 in February%During the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY rate continues to show an upward trend on the short-term horizon, approaching the level of 32.3060 for a possible breakout, ahead of the publication of important statistics on consumer inflation in the United States.The Turkish lira is losing ground amid the current economic difficulties in the country. Recently, the Central Bank of Turkey increased the key rate by 500 basis points to 50%, which came as a surprise to analysts who expected a 250-point increase or stabilization of the rate. Inflation expectations remain stable on the part of the government: it is assumed that by the end of the year the inflation rate will reach 36%, and by 2025 it will decrease to 14%. The beginning of the tourist season contributes to a partial economic recovery: in February, the number of foreign tourists increased to 22.68%, reaching 2.3 million people, of whom 1.3 million visited Istanbul. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his intention to attract 60 million tourists this year, which should bring the country an income of $ 60 billion. Last year, 56.7 million people visited Turkey, which is 12% more than the previous year, bringing in revenue of 54.3 billion dollars, which is an increase of 16.9%.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/JPY: currency pair stabilizes near historical peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair is approaching the 151.35 mark, with the yen at its lowest levels since 1990. The discussion of the possibility of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan has again intensified among market participants, recalling last year's events when the exchange rate exceeded 145.00.The central bank's rejection of negative interest rates did not bring significant support to the national currency, as this decision was predictable. Analysts' attention is focused on the potential tightening of monetary policy, the prospects for which remain vague.Representatives of the Bank of Japan stressed their intention to continue applying a soft monetary policy and maintain the current volume of interventions in the government bond market. Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Japan, expressed the view that it is necessary to consistently focus on tightening the monetary sphere and warned against the dangers of aggressively increasing the cost of lending in the event of too rapid inflation.Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.00, 152.50, 153.00.Support levels: 151.00, 150.50, 150.00, 149.50.Silver market analysisThe price of silver shows a moderate increase, approaching the indicator of 24.70 and continuing the growth that began a day earlier, after moving away from the minimum values on March 13 against the background of unclear expectations for easing the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. A previous statement by the US central bank eased concerns about a slowdown in the pace of lower lending costs this year: markets are still anticipating three interest rate adjustments of 25 basis points each, with the first expected step in June.The final data on gross domestic product (GDP) will be in the focus of traders' attention today The United States for the fourth quarter of 2023 and statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 22 will increase from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 24.71, 25.00, 25.35, 25.58.Support levels: 24.40, 24.20, 24.00, ...

The Turkish lira continues to rewrite historical lows. Over the past year, it has weakened by 110% against the dollar, which has earned the status of one of the worst investments in the world. We understand the reasons for such a rapid decline and the risks for the global financial system.Hawks vs. PigeonsBack in March 2021, the then head of the Central Bank of Turkey, Naji Agbal, raised the key rate from 17 to 19%. The reason for the tight monetary policy is high inflation, which by that time had reached almost 16%. The high rate was planned to be kept until the price increase was stopped.Agbala's "hawkish" rhetoric was not to the taste of the country's president Erdogan, who believes that the rigid PREP, on the contrary, only accelerates inflation. As a result, the chair of the head of the Central Bank was occupied by Sahap Kavcioglu, who supports the opinion of the national leader.Since September, a gradual reduction in the key rate has begun: from 19 to 14%. The last decline occurred on December 16, it served as another trigger for the weakening of the Turkish lira. In November, official inflation exceeded 20%, and the Central Bank failed to slow down the fall of the national currency, even thanks to the active sale of dollars.What are the forecasts?The depreciation of the Turkish lira has a negative impact primarily on the financial situation of the Turkish population. In real terms, the key rate is, in fact, negative, which only accelerates the growth of consumer prices.There are no prerequisites that the situation will change in the foreseeable future. Erdogan and his supporters continue to believe that there is no alternative to an investment-oriented policy.S&P rating agency has changed its outlook for Turkey from stable to negative. The national debt is growing, gold and foreign exchange reserves are shrinking, and the Central Bank of the country continues to lower the key rate against the background of increased inflation.A full-scale crisis in Turkey is capable of provoking a wave of sales in emerging markets, to which Russia belongs. We could observe a kind of rehearsal of the withdrawal of international investors from global asset risks on Monday, December ...