USD/TRY Trading forecasts and signals

USD/JPY: dollar is preparing to test the psychological levelThe USD/JPY currency pair is developing a moderate "bearish" vector of value, within the framework of the correction phase after a significant rise recorded last Friday. On the previous day, the currency instrument reached the highest level since October 20, 2022, approaching the key psychological threshold of 150.00. Traders continue to be anxious about the Bank of Japan's potential intervention in the yen's fluctuations, as it did in the previous year. Bank of Japan officials are currently taking a wait-and-see stance, however, recent statements from the head of this financial institution, Kazuo Ueda, have been entirely focused on discussing the inflationary situation.Today's easing of US Dollar-related tensions is partly due to anticipation of upcoming speeches by senior US Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell. FX market participants are expecting to hear additional indications of possible interest rate hikes in the coming months. This expectation is based on recent remarks by Neel Kashkari, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who has already energized the bull market with his previous comments. There is also growing concern among market participants about the situation regarding the U.S. budget passage for the next fiscal year. Just as many issues still cannot be agreed upon, the Senate has been asked to approve a temporary funding bill to avoid a federal government shutdown starting October 1.Resistance levels: 149.69, 150.00, 150.50, 151.00.Support levels: 149.00, 148.47, 148.00, 147.36.USD/TRY: lira's decline continuesDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair shows moderate strengthening, approaching 27.3525. On the previous day, the pair reached an all-time high near 27.8100, thanks to the strengthening of the dollar.The Turkish lira is under pressure due to domestic economic factors. Despite decisive measures of the Turkish Central Bank to tighten monetary policy, the lira failed to strengthen its position. Inflationary concerns continue to rise even though the regulator has raised the key rate four times since June, totaling 21.5%. In August, the inflation rate settled at 9.09% month-on-month and 58.94% year-on-year. According to officials, high domestic demand, changes in wage levels, exchange rates, and the rising cost of energy resources and services are contributing to the rise in inflation. In light of this, the USD/TRY currency pair has added 2.6% over the past month, and is up about 48.0% year-to-date. Turkey's central bank aims to reduce inflation to 5.0% by 2024.Resistance levels: 27.5000, 27.7500, 28.0000, 28.2500.Support levels: 27.2166, 27.0000, 26.7500, 26.5000.Silver Price AnalysisAlong with the strengthening economic situation in the USA, which exceeded the initial forecasts, the precious metals market is facing sales. The reason for this is investors' preference in favor of the dollar, given the current policy of high interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and their probable further retention at high levels. The XAG/USD pair is now at 22.57.Last week, the Federal Reserve did not change the level of interest rates, leaving them at 5.50%. There were also signals about the possibility of one more rate hike in the current cycle before the monetary policy review begins. This caused the dollar to strengthen against other currencies, which in turn sent silver down 2.50%. However, Chinese investors actively buying gold may give a boost to the value of other precious metals. At the moment, the precious metals market in China is showing record highs of over $100.0 per ounce compared to the ten-year average of $6.0.Resistance levels: 23.60, 24.35, 25.20.Support levels: 22.64, 22.18, 20.95.Crude Oil Market AnalysisBrent Crude Oil prices surpassed the 96.00 threshold and are moving towards 100.00 after the Cushing inventory level fell to an alarming low, highlighting the global decline in fuel supply.Data on hydrocarbon reserves in the United States, published yesterday, showed that over the last week their volume decreased by 2.170 million barrels, which was below expectations, which suggested a decrease of 1.320 million. At the same time, the indicator for Cushing, a key hub of oil supplies in the United States, decreased by 0.943 million, reaching the lowest values since the summer of 2022. Experts agree that this trend is a result of Saudi Arabia and Russia's actions under OPEC+, which impose restrictions on production, causing a shortage. Due to rising demand, many nations are actively using their oil reserves to avoid a sharp price spike. Since the summer months, the cost of Brent Crude Oil has risen approximately 28% and continues its climb.OPEC's outlook also plays in favor of rising oil prices: the organization is forecasting an oil deficit of 3.0 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Given the stable demand in China and the US, experts assume that prices may overcome the psychological boundary of 100.00.Resistance levels: 95.60, 100.10, 104.50.Support levels: 92.05, 87.64, ...

EUR/GBP: Die Währung der Eurozone verliert weiter an WertDas Währungspaar EUR/GBP zeigt eine leichte Stärkung der Notierungen und macht damit die Verluste nach einem starken Rückgang zu Beginn dieser Woche wieder wett, bei dem neue lokale Tiefststände seit dem 14. Juli erreicht wurden.Allerdings haben die makroökonomischen Statistiken aus der Eurozone einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die Euro-Positionen. So sank der Index der Geschäftstätigkeit im verarbeitenden Gewerbe im Juli von 43,4 Punkten auf 42,7 Punkte, während Experten einen Anstieg auf 43,5 Punkte erwartet hatten. Darüber hinaus fiel der von S&P Global ermittelte Index für den Dienstleistungssektor von 52,0 auf 51,1 Punkte und lag damit unter den Prognosen, die einen Wert von 51,5 Punkten vorhersagten. Der vom Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (IFO) ermittelte Index für den Optimismus der deutschen Wirtschaft sank von 88,6 auf 87,3 Punkte, obwohl die Prognosen bei 88,0 Punkten lagen.Widerstandsniveaus: 0,8574, 0,8592, 0,8606, 0,8634.Unterstützungswerte: 0,8555, 0,8532, 0,8508, 0,8479.USD/CAD: Das Paar entwickelt eine seitwärts gerichtete DynamikDas Handelsinstrument USD/CAD entwickelt eine mäßige Stärkung der Positionen und erholt sich nach einem deutlichen Rückgang am Montag. Der Handel findet in einer relativ engen Preisspanne statt und bildet einen kurzfristigen horizontalen Trend.Die US-Währung wird durch die Erwartungen an die Ergebnisse der US-Notenbanksitzung schwach unterstützt. Fast alle sind sich sicher, dass die Regulierungsbehörde den Zinssatz um 25 Basispunkte erhöhen wird, aber die Anleger sind mehr an den Aussichten der Geldpolitik interessiert. Viele Experten sind der Meinung, dass die Anpassung im Juli angesichts des starken Rückgangs der Inflation in den USA die letzte in diesem Zyklus sein wird. Darüber hinaus werden die Marktteilnehmer heute die Juni-Statistiken zu den Verkäufen neuer Häuser aufmerksam verfolgen: Die Prognosen deuten auf einen Rückgang von 0,763 Millionen auf 0,725 Millionen hin.Widerstandsniveaus: 1,3200, 1,3224, 1,3250, 1,3300.Unterstützungsniveaus: 1.3150, 1.3118, 1.3091, 1.3050.USD/TRY: Türkische Währung in der Nähe historischer TiefstständeWährend des asiatischen Handels steigt das Währungspaar USD/TRY leicht an und bleibt in der Nähe des historischen Hochs von 27,0000.Die türkische Lira reagiert negativ auf die Aussichten für die Wirtschaft des Landes, die weiterhin mit einer hohen Inflation und der Unsicherheit über die Geldpolitik der türkischen Zentralbank zu kämpfen hat. In der vergangenen Woche erhöhte die Regulierungsbehörde den Kreditzins von 15,0 % auf 17,5 % und begründete dies mit der aktiven Abwertung der Landeswährung und den steigenden Energiepreisen. Der Satz lag jedoch unter den geplanten 21,0 %, da die Finanzbehörden einen stärkeren Druck auf den Dienstleistungssektor befürchten, der wesentlich zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) beiträgt. Darüber hinaus erhöht die Regierung die Steuerlast: Die Zölle auf Smartphone-Importe wurden ab dem 10. Juli verdreifacht, während die Mehrwertsteuer von 18,0 % auf 20,0 % angehoben wurde, was zu einem deutlichen Anstieg der Benzin- und Dieselpreise führte (um mehr als 60,0 % im letzten Jahr).Widerstandsniveaus: 27,0000, 27,1707, 27,5000, 28,0000.Unterstützungsniveaus: 26.5000, 26.1654, 25.4951, 24.7484.USD/CHF: Der Franken ist nicht in der Lage, das Interesse der Anleger auf frühere Niveaus zurückzuführenAngesichts des stabilen Verhaltens des US-Dollars befindet sich das Währungspaar USD/CHF in einer Korrekturbewegung und handelt um die Marke von 0,8650.Auf der letzten Sitzung hat die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) den Zinssatz auf 1,75% erhöht, um die Inflation in einem stabilen Bereich unter 2,0% zu halten. Obwohl die Inflation 1,7 % erreicht hat, ist die Regulierungsbehörde immer noch besorgt über einen möglichen Anstieg in naher Zukunft. Die Beamten haben das Ende des geldpolitischen Straffungszyklus noch nicht angekündigt, was die Anleger verunsichert. Heute wird die Veröffentlichung des Index der Konjunkturerwartungen des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) erwartet, der mit -30,8 Punkten gegenüber dem vorherigen Wert von -32,2 Punkten ansteigen könnte, was das nach wie vor geringe Vertrauen in den Schweizer Franken widerspiegelt.Widerstandsniveaus: 0,8760, 0,8920.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0,8574, ...

EUR/GBP: Eurozone currency continues to declineThe EUR/GBP currency pair is showing a slight strengthening of quotes, making up for the losses after a sharp decline earlier this week, during which new local lows were set since July 14.However, macroeconomic statistics from the euro zone has a significant impact on the euro positions. In particular, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in July decreased from 43.4 points to 42.7 points, while experts expected its growth to 43.5 points. In addition, the index in the services sector from S&P Global fell from 52.0 points to 51.1 points, which was worse than forecasts, assuming the level of 51.5 points. Meanwhile, the German business optimism index measured by the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) adjusted from 88.6 points to 87.3 points, despite forecasts of 88.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.8574, 0.8592, 0.8606, 0.8634.Support levels: 0.8555, 0.8532, 0.8508, 0.8479.USD/CAD: pair is developing sideways dynamicsThe USD/CAD trading instrument is developing a moderate strengthening of positions, recovering after a significant drop on Monday. Trading is taking place in a relatively narrow price range, forming a short-term horizontal trend.The U.S. currency is weakly supported by expectations of the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. Almost everyone is sure that the regulator will increase the interest rate by 25 basis points, but investors are more interested in the prospects of monetary policy. Many experts believe that the adjustment in July will be the last in this cycle, given the sharp decline in inflation in the United States. In addition, today market participants will closely follow the June statistics on new home sales: forecasts suggest a decline from 0.763 million to 0.725 million.Resistance levels: 1.3200, 1.3224, 1.3250, 1.3300.Support levels: 1.3150, 1.3118, 1.3091, 1.3050.USD/TRY: Turkish currency is near historic lowsDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair is slightly rising, staying close to the all-time high of 27.0000.The Turkish lira is reacting negatively to the outlook for the country's economy, which continues to struggle with high inflation and uncertainty in the Turkish Central Bank's monetary policy. Last week, the regulator raised the lending rate from 15.0% to 17.5%, justifying it by the active depreciation of the national currency and rising energy prices. However, the rate was lower than the projected 21.0%, as financial authorities fear increased pressure on the service sector, which contributes significantly to the gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, the government is increasing the tax burden: customs duties on smartphone imports tripled from July 10, while VAT increased from 18.0% to 20.0%, leading to a marked increase in gasoline and diesel prices (up more than 60.0% YTD).Resistance levels: 27.0000, 27.1707, 27.5000, 28.0000.Support levels: 26.5000, 26.1654, 25.4951, 24.7484.USD/CHF: franc is not able to return investor interest to previous levelsWith the stable behavior of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair is in a corrective move, trading near the 0.8650 level.At the last meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised the interest rate to 1.75% in order to keep inflation in a stable range below 2.0%. Although inflation has reached 1.7%, the regulator still has concerns about a possible increase in the near future. Officials have not yet announced the end of the monetary tightening cycle, which causes uncertainty among investors. Today, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) Economic Expectations Index is expected to be published, which may reach -30.8 points, up from the previous reading of -32.2 points, reflecting the still low confidence in the Swiss franc.Resistance levels: 0.8760, 0.8920.Support levels: 0.8574, ...

EUR/USD: dollar was under pressure from the prospect of the Fed's refusal to correct interest ratesThe currency pair is actively strengthening at 1.1155. The US dollar remains under the influence of negative factors after the release of the June Consumer Price Index statistics, which exceeded the experts' expectations of lower growth dynamics.The probable decline on the country's economic indicators provides support for alternative assets. Thus, despite the decisions of the American financial authorities, the regulator of the European region ECB has more probability to continue the long-term trend of interest rate increase, because the core inflation still remains above the target area of 2.0%. In turn, the downward dynamics strengthened the position of the "bears" due to the weak statistics on industrial production in the European region during the afternoon trading, which reflected a 0.2% increase in the monthly figure with an estimate of 0.3%, and in the annualized one - decreased by 2.2%, with analysts expecting a correction of -1.2%.Resistance levels: 1.1255, 1.1352.Support levels: 1.1047, 1.0986, 1.0864.GBP/USD: pound is moving to update the record highThe GBP/USD trading instrument is developing upward dynamics, holding the 1.3000 area. The British currency, following the general trend of the currency basket, shows active strengthening against the dollar from July 6, taking advantage of its uncertainty due to expectations of tightening monetary parameters by the Fed.Recall that the June statistics reflected a decline in annual inflation to 3.0% from 4.0%, beating analysts' estimates of 3.1%, while the core rate fell to 4.8% from 5.3%, passing the psychological mark of 5.0%. Investors have changed their expectations regarding the re-forecasted adjustment of the borrowing costs by the US regulator officials by the end of this year, while the probable adjustment of the value at the end of the working meeting in July continues to be estimated at 90.0% probability.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2847, 1.2800, 1.2747.USD/TRY: Turkish industrial capacity declined for the yearDuring the recent trading sessions, the USD/TRY currency pair continues its sideways dynamics, testing the 26.1500 mark, due to the weak macroeconomic backdrop from the US, which prevents the US currency from strengthening, while the lira continues to be under pressure after the Turkish presidential election.The day before, Turkey's Statistical Institute TürkStat released statistics on May production capacity, which lost 0.2% in annualized terms and gained 1.1% in monthly terms, amid a sharp recovery in industrial activity after the first cycle of the global pandemic of the Covid-19 virus during April in 2020, showing more than 2 years of growth. Thus, mining declined 7.1% on a index with a 2.4% month-on-month increase, manufacturing rose 0.6% year-over-year and 0.9% month-on-month, and supply with electricity, gas, steam and conditioned air declined 1.3% year-over-year, adding 2.4% for May. The annual upward momentum has slowed due to weaker demand globally, as well as from leading participants in the trade with Turkey.Resistance levels: 26.1654, 26.5000, 27.0000, 27.5000.Support levels: 25.4951, 24.7484, 23.7340, 22.9730.Silver pricesYesterday's publication of the macroeconomic data block in the USA allowed silver to resume the level of 24.08 as a result of the growth of 4.2% at once.In turn, mining companies added to the value of shares, providing support to the quotations of the precious metal. Thus, Hecla Mining Co. successfully updated the top peak for 2016 after producing 4.0 million ounces of metal in the first quarter, which exceeded 10.0% of the previous period, which yesterday served as a driver to the growth of the value of securities by 7.0%. Endeavor Silver Corp.'s production guidance was 2.3 million ounces for the second quarter, beating the same period for 2022 by 9.5%. Consolidated silver production capacity gained 10.0% year-over-year to 1.494 million ounces as the Guanacevi mine ramped up production capacity, boosting the issuer's share price by 7.7%.Resistance levels: 24.00, 24.50, 26.00.Support levels: 22.50, 22.00, ...

EUR/USD: key sectors of the European economy are downPublished macroeconomic statistics, which reflected the downward trend development in the main economic indicators of the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to correct around 1.0696.For instance, the consumer prices in Spain fell by 0.1% in May from the previous 0.6% growth, which had an impact on the annual figure, reducing it to 3.2%, or the minimum for August 2021. The cost of manufactured goods kept the negative trend to -4.8% from April's -1.5%. Weakening values of the central economies in the region lowered the European Alliance Business Activity Index from 0.51 points to 0.19 points. Taking into account the released inflation data of Germany and France, the current euro dynamics will continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0610, 1.0400.USD/CAD: the pair is going to test a new local maximumUSD/CAD is moving in active growth, being under the influence of the upward momentum formed earlier, when the pair updated the local low of May 24. The U.S. dollar strengthened due to technical reasons and the announced consideration of the bill to increase the national debt ceiling by the congressmen.The agreement reached the day before by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy concluded last weekend, after which the Congress has only one week to approve the bill, without which the financial authorities will lose the ability to make payments on government bills since June 5. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop also drew investors' attention with the Dallas Fed's May manufacturing activity falling to -29.1 points from a previous estimate of -23.4 points at -19.6 points. A number of Fed officials are expected to speak on Wednesday, May 31. In turn, economists expect publication of the Chicago Business Sentiment Index in May and the monthly economic survey from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called "Exchange Book".Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.USD/TRY: Turkish currency is making new record lowsIn morning trading, USD/TRY showed strong bullish momentum and made a new record high at 20.7000.On the threshold of the next election in Turkey, the conditions for the lira to go down were formed, amid the markets uncertainty about the predictability of the voting results. The announcement of the final election results at the beginning of the week, according to which the incumbent President Recep Erdogan won a clear victory, triggered another downward trend in the national currency, as economists expect the authorities to put pressure on the Turkish Central Bank in the future. Thus, the vector of "doves" in the issue of monetary parameters, most likely, will remain the same, which will serve to improve the investment climate of the Republic, strengthening of the labor market and supply of goods to foreign markets that can deprive the consumer prices of the prospects for further growth, which now hold the level of 43.68%, at the cost of borrowing at 8.5%. Meanwhile, experts raise fears that the prices of consumer goods and services in the short term may resume growing again due to the involvement of public resources in the election campaign, for example, citizens were given the opportunity to consume natural gas for free for a month. The sharp decline in the Turkish lira forces market participants to transfer their capital to savings accounts, where the lira is quoted against the U.S. dollar and the state compensates for the difference in exchange rates. Such measures have been in effect in Turkey since 2021.Resistance levels: 20.7000, 20.8680, 21.0000, 21.1500.Support levels: 20.4263, 20.2242, 20.0036, 19.8500.Gold pricesThe precious metal is developing a correction at the key multi-year level of 2000.0.Physical gold demand level is steadily increasing, especially after the cancellation of Covid-19 epidemiological measures in the regions. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China, for example, has been building up its own gold reserve six months in a row and, according to official statistics coming into publication after a three-year pause, the regulator added more than 100.0 tons of metal to reserves during the first quarter, raising the reserve target to 2076.0 tons.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2030.0.Support levels: 1940.0, ...

USD/CHF: instrument has reached a local maximumCurrency pair USD/CHF is trading mixed dynamics, testing the level of 0.8960 and the local high of May 2, updated a week earlier.The day before the US dollar got a moderate support amid macroeconomic data releases, but all attempts to hold the updated limits failed. For example, retail sales for April rose 0.4% to a 0.7% decline in the past, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 0.7% consolidation, and excluding motor vehicles rose 0.4% to a 0.5% decline for March the day before. Industrial production strengthened 0.5%, breaking March's zero trend. Production capacity utilization rose to 79.7% in April from 79.4% as expected by experts.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9000, 0.9030 and 0.9070.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8900, 0.8858, 0.8819.USD/TRY: lira is actively losing groundThe USD/TRY trade instrument is actively rallying, having reached the area of 19.7400, and the rate of appreciation has been breaking the records of the recent correction.The Turkish currency is actively weakening due to the outcome of the first round voting in presidential and parliamentary elections. The incumbent president of the Republic of Turkey failed to overcome the threshold of 50.0% of supporters, in spite of a fairly confident breakaway from the representative of the opposition in power, as a result of which a new vote will be held on May 28. The current leader's government has been actively reforming the economy since 2017, in an attempt to overcome record consumer inflation and keep the Turkish lira afloat. The current president is ignoring the traditional approach of global regulators on monetary parameters by reducing the cost of borrowing, maintaining the hope that credit products will become more affordable and attractive to international investors in the country, causing the Central Bank of Turkey to come under pressure from the government on a regular basis. In turn, markets have expressed fears that the formed inflationary spiral could have very negative consequences for the financial sector in the country.Resistance levels: 19.7500, 19.8000, 19.8500, 19.9000.Support levels: 19.6530, 19.6000, 19.5500, 19.5000.GBP/USD: UK keeps recording a slowdown in the economyThe strengthened American currency gives impetus to the GBP/USD currency pair to correct at 1.2479.The day before the British pound made an attempt to rise, but on Tuesday the statistics on the national employment market negated the achievement of the asset. Thus, the number of unemployed rose from 3.8% to 3.9% in March amid an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 26.5 thousand in February to 46.7 thousand, which set a new record for March 2021, where such a situation was possible due to epidemiological restrictions. This situation reduced labor productivity by 1.4 percent, after increasing by 0.4 percent. The average wage rate maintained its level of 5.8%, having a disincentive effect on new hires.Resistance levels: 1.2560 and 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2200.Gold PricesThe precious metal is quoted near the key multi-year mark of 2000.0.According to the published report of the World Gold Council, analysts noted a slight sentiment in favor of lowering the key value in Q1. For example, first-quarter demand fell 13.0% year-over-year to 1,080.0 tonnes, while the jewelry industry lowered gold demand to 508.6 tonnes, or 2.0%. Investor demand corrected by -51.0% to 273.7 tonnes, while physical gold bars and coins gained 5.0% to 302.4 tonnes. Capital outflows from gold-backed ETFs decreased to 28.7 tonnes from 270.7 tonnes the year before.In turn, central banks are increasing their purchases of gold to bolster reserves, with the first quarter value renewing its highest peak over the same period in 2022 at 176.0% to 228.4 tonnes.Resistance levels: 2010.0, 2050.0.Support levels: 1975.0, ...

EURUSD: Euro is retreating from its local peakThe EURUSD trading instrument showed a moderate decline, testing the level of 1.0975.Earlier the pair showed a slight negative trend, as a result investors expect new stimulus against the announcement of the March data on demand for durable goods in the U.S. today, April 26. The experts' current estimates see the index gaining 0.8% from the previous 1.0% decline, while capital goods orders excluding aircraft and defense goods may show a positive 0.2% correction from the previous 0.1% decline in February. Traders are eager to assess May statistics on consumer confidence in Germany, according to analysis portal Gfk Group. The market expects the positive dynamics of the value to -27.5 points from -29.5 points.Resistance levels: 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100, 1.1150.Support levels: 1.0957, 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800.USDTRY: Dollar keeps the bulls' advantageThe USDTRY currency pair is under the influence of contradictory factors, reaching the level of 19.4220.The U.S. dollar was able to gain ground thanks to a block of macroeconomic data, which showed 0.5% increase in February, a 0.1% increase against analysts' expectations of 0.2% decline, while the percentage of new residential real estate sales for March rose 9.6% against the previous 3.9% decline, after revising from 1.1% rise, while experts estimated 1.1% growth.The lira continues to be under pressure because of the rapid decline of the Turkish Central Bank reserves, because a week earlier the decline of reserves exceeded the figure of $5.0 billion on the background of the rapid growth in demand for foreign currency and other safe assets, including gold, from the population. Thus, the market participants are getting ready for the volatility on the threshold of the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, which are due on May 14.Resistance levels: 19.4511, 19.5000, 19.5500, 19.6000.Support levels: 19.4000, 19.3560, 19.3000, 19.2000.AUDUSD: Australian consumer prices are decliningLocal strengthening of the American currency allows the AUDUSD pair to test the level of 0.6610. The Australian dollar lost all its gains the day before because of the strengthening U.S. dollar.Today, April 26, the quarterly report on consumer prices for Q1 in Australia was released, showing a 1.4% increase from last year's 1.9% increase, which cut the yearly value to 7.0% from 7.8%. The most vulnerable to cost increases were gas and other fuels at 14.3%, higher education at 9.7%, domestic transportation at 4.7% and medical and hospital care at 4.2%. Thus, the negative inflation trend is circumstantial evidence of recent successful decisions by RBA officials to tone down the hawkish rhetoric.Resistance levels: 0.6660 and 0.6770.Support levels: 0.6570, 0.6430.Gold price analysisThe precious metal prices reflect a mixed trend, holding at the level of 2000.00. Gold has been showing some limited appreciation since the beginning of the week, in an attempt to move up towards the psychological level of 2000.00, which it is unable to hold for a long time.Earlier, a block of macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. sent a positive signal for the asset. Thus, the consumer confidence in April dropped from the revised 104.0 points in March to 101.3 points, against the analysts' forecast of the downward correction to 104.0 points from 104.2 points. In turn, gold is using the news background on the U.S. banking sector to strengthen. First Republic Bank, which earlier reported problems caused by the March capital outflow, announced the reduction of its deposit portfolio to the amount exceeding $100 billion for Q1 this year, which served as an "anchor" for the shares of the financial institution, which fell to $8.0.Meanwhile, the bears are getting support for the pressure on investors' anticipation of the announced meetings of the key central banks in the first half of May. Recall that another 0.25% strengthening of the interest rate is expected at the end of the U.S. Federal Reserve officials' meeting.Resistance levels: 2000.00, 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00.Support levels: 1981.46, 1960.00, 1943.80, ...

AUDUSD: bulls are set to regain the advantageAUDUSD is trading in moderate growth, ending the downward trend of the last three sessions, which resulted in the instrument leaving the local highs. Investors began to fix long-term deals in anticipation of the release of March reports on the U.S. employment market and the celebration of Easter.Meanwhile, the instrument got the certain support due to macroeconomic statistics. For example, Australian exports fell by 3.0% and imports fell by 9.0%, allowing the surplus to reach A$13.870 billion from the previous A$11.266 billion, with economists estimating a correction to A$11.100 billion. Meanwhile, Australian Industry Group (AiG) manufacturing activity for March was 5.6 points, strengthening from a previous -6.4 points, signaling an increase in positive momentum in the manufacturing sector, while the Caixin PRC service sector business activity showed an upward trend to 57.8 points from 55.0 points, beating estimates of a decline to 54.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6624, 0.6600, 0.6563.USDCHF: pair is held near the June 2021 lowDuring the Asian trading the currency pair USDCHF shows a contradictory sentiment, testing 0.9040 and a record low of June 2021, updated the day before.Investors show low trading dynamics due to preparations for the Easter celebrations according to the Catholic calendar, as well as wish to evaluate the publication of the main US macroeconomic indicators. Thus, the previously announced labor market statistics for March can provide the correction of sentiment among the US FRS officials, as the forecast provides for the number of the unemployed outside the agricultural sector to decrease to 240.0 thousand from the previous 311.0 thousand, the moderate correction of the partial employment and unemployment at the level of 3.6%. Analysts have expressed fears that in reality the situation will be much worse, because the report released the day before by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on the number of private sector jobs did not meet expectations, showing a correction of only 145.0 thousand earlier, strengthening to 261.0 thousand, with market estimates of a change to 200.0k. Jobless claims data released earlier also did not please the market, showing a decline in initial claims to 228.0k from 246.0k with an expected drop to 200.0k, while secondary claims strengthened to 1.823 million from 1.817 million with a forecast decline to 1.699 million.Resistance levels: 0.9070, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8925.EURGBP: Euro is trying to correctThe EURGBP currency pair reflects a weak decline, being in the area of 0.8770. The market is quite passive in terms of trades amid investors' wait-and-see attitude following the release of U.S. labor market data for March.Earlier published macroeconomic block in the UK showed mixed statistics with Halifax index of residential real estate value for March growing 0.8% adding 1.2% in February against estimates of -0.3% and business activity of the construction sector showing decline to 50.7 points from 54.6 points contrary to expectations of 53.5 points. Of interest to the market was a number of statements by the Bank of England representatives in which the agency assumes a more dynamic rate of reduction than it was planned the day before because the previous correction in borrowing costs is putting pressure on the performance of the global economy, moreover, earlier measures taken to combat inflation have already shown their effectiveness.Resistance levels: 0.8783, 0.8800, 0.8820, 0.8841.Support levels: 0.8750, 0.8727, 0.8700, 0.8660.USDTRY: Turkey is successfully fighting back against inflationUSDTRY is fluctuating within a stable upward range of 18.8000-19.4000, which is held with artificial mechanisms ahead of the upcoming presidential elections.Preliminary polls show that the current Republican leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is slightly ahead of his opponent, but the final superiority can only be affected by the obvious domestic economic success. During the current week, March consumer inflation statistics were released, with a monthly gain of 2.29%, second to February's 3.15% increase, but showing a decline in the annual rate to 50.51% from 55.18%. The downward trend in inflation strengthens the incumbent quite a bit, because back in the early months some economists were considering a scenario of an inflation increase to 100.0%.Resistance levels: 19.3000 and 19.5000.Support levels: 19.2000, ...

The Turkish lira continues to rewrite historical lows. Over the past year, it has weakened by 110% against the dollar, which has earned the status of one of the worst investments in the world. We understand the reasons for such a rapid decline and the risks for the global financial system.Hawks vs. PigeonsBack in March 2021, the then head of the Central Bank of Turkey, Naji Agbal, raised the key rate from 17 to 19%. The reason for the tight monetary policy is high inflation, which by that time had reached almost 16%. The high rate was planned to be kept until the price increase was stopped.Agbala's "hawkish" rhetoric was not to the taste of the country's president Erdogan, who believes that the rigid PREP, on the contrary, only accelerates inflation. As a result, the chair of the head of the Central Bank was occupied by Sahap Kavcioglu, who supports the opinion of the national leader.Since September, a gradual reduction in the key rate has begun: from 19 to 14%. The last decline occurred on December 16, it served as another trigger for the weakening of the Turkish lira. In November, official inflation exceeded 20%, and the Central Bank failed to slow down the fall of the national currency, even thanks to the active sale of dollars.What are the forecasts?The depreciation of the Turkish lira has a negative impact primarily on the financial situation of the Turkish population. In real terms, the key rate is, in fact, negative, which only accelerates the growth of consumer prices.There are no prerequisites that the situation will change in the foreseeable future. Erdogan and his supporters continue to believe that there is no alternative to an investment-oriented policy.S&P rating agency has changed its outlook for Turkey from stable to negative. The national debt is growing, gold and foreign exchange reserves are shrinking, and the Central Bank of the country continues to lower the key rate against the background of increased inflation.A full-scale crisis in Turkey is capable of provoking a wave of sales in emerging markets, to which Russia belongs. We could observe a kind of rehearsal of the withdrawal of international investors from global asset risks on Monday, December ...