USD/TRY Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/USD: asset correction pending ECB decisionThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to follow the corrective trend, holding at 1.0888, despite the temporary weakening of the US dollar and balanced economic indicators from the European Union.In May, the indicator of business activity in the Spanish service sector increased from 56.2 to 56.9 points. In Italy, the index fell slightly from 54.3 to 54.2 points, in France it decreased from 51.3 to 49.3 points, while in Germany it increased from 53.2 to 54.2 points. The overall index for the region was 53.2 points, slightly lower than the previous value of 53.3 points, which demonstrates the stability of a key sector of the EU economy against the background of strict monetary policy and a slowdown in the labor market. A meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled today at 14:15 GMT+2, at which it is expected that the regulator may take steps towards a softer monetary policy. Analysts foresee a possible rate cut of 25 basis points in response to deteriorating economic conditions tending to recession in some areas. During a subsequent press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde may also outline the potential for additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 1.0934, 1.1041.Support levels: 1.0815, 1.0735.USD/CHF: the risks associated with the liquidation of majority banks are outlinedDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a moderate decline, testing the level of 0.8910 after the previous growth provoked by the published positive economic statistics from the United States.To date, traders are analyzing unemployment data in Switzerland, where the seasonally adjusted rate increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, while excluding these fluctuations it remained at 2.3%. Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Zutter expressed the view that international organizations should carefully consider the potential risks associated with the liquidation of large banks. She cited the example of Credit Suisse Group AG, which on May 31 announced the completion of the merger process with UBS AG, ending its 168-year history. The Minister stressed that it is important that large banking institutions provide adequate financial support to their branches so that the capital of foreign subsidiaries is sufficient and can be used without risk to the financial well-being of the Swiss parent company during crisis periods.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.8964, 0.9000, 0.9037.Support levels: 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8839, 0.8800.USD/TRY: Turkish inflation returned to peaks in November 2022The USD/TRY currency pair demonstrates changeable trading activity, stabilizing around the level of 32.2150. The market is in a state of expectation, as bidders are looking for new factors that can influence the policy of the US Federal Reserve on borrowing rates.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to domestic economic problems. In May, the annual inflation index in Turkey reached the highest values in the last year and a half, reaching 75.45%. The most significant price increase over the year was recorded in the education sector (+104.8%), while in the clothing and footwear segment there was the least growth (+50.85%). Prices for residential real estate increased by 93.21%, for alcohol and tobacco — by 86.48%, and in the category of "hotels, cafes and restaurants" — by 92.94%. According to Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek, inflation was expected to peak in May. This month, the authorities expect a correction in inflation, which is facilitated by an increase in business activity due to the tourist season. The annual inflation rate is expected to decrease to less than 50.0% by the end of the third quarter, and in subsequent years it will fall to 33.2% and 21.3%, respectively.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/CAD: interest rate in Canada has been reduced to 4.75%The USD/CAD currency pair continues to fluctuate between 1.3725–1.2625, even despite the recent decision of the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates.The regulator lowered the key rate by 0.25 points to 4.75%, which was the first such decrease in the last four years and in line with analysts' forecasts. According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, the country's economy is on track to achieve the inflation target of 2.0%, based on a number of macroeconomic data. Macklem also pointed out that with the continued slowdown in inflation, additional reductions in the cost of loans may follow. Nevertheless, despite monetary measures, USD/CAD quotes reached the upper limit of the specified range, but could not overcome it due to subsequent unfavorable data from the United States. In particular, in May, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) fell to 47.1 points, falling below expectations of 47.2 points, and the price index amounted to 58.1 points against the predicted 59.0. The indicator from S&P Global remained at 54.8 points, in line with expectations. In addition, data from ADP showed a decrease in private sector employment from 188.0 thousand to 152.0 thousand, which also turned out to be lower than preliminary estimates of 173.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.3725, 1.3775, 1.3830.Support levels: 1.3625, 1.3595, ...

EUR/USD: downward trend may intensifyThe EUR/USD pair has shown continuous growth since the middle of last month, as investors hoped for an early adjustment of monetary policy in the United States. However, this week the pair reached the level of 1.0864 Murray [6/8], after which it began to adjust downwards.Today, the negative dynamics slowed down due to the publication of data on business activity in the eurozone. In May, the indices showed the highest growth rates for the current year: the index for the industrial sector rose from 45.7 to 47.4 points, the index for the service sector increased from 51.7 to 52.3 points, and the composite index reached 53.3 points. However, the long-term fundamentals remain unfavorable. Experts predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) will switch to monetary policy easing earlier than the US Federal Reserve System (Fed).Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0620, 1.0559.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation at three-year lowThe USD/CAD pair demonstrates a multidirectional trading dynamics, holding near the 1.3685 mark, which is close to the local highs on May 9, which were updated the day before. On Wednesday, the instrument was supported by the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on May 1.Investors continue to analyze the April statistics on inflation in Canada, published on Tuesday. The consumer price index decreased from 2.9% to 2.7% year-on-year and from 0.6% to 0.5% month-on-month. The base index also showed a decrease: from 2.0% to 1.6% in annual terms and from 0.5% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. According to Statistics Canada, the slowdown in overall inflation was caused by lower prices for food, services and durable goods. The decrease in the cost of motor fuel also contributed: excluding this factor, the annual consumer price index dropped to 2.5% from 2.8%. Thus, inflation approached the Bank of Canada's target level of 2.0%. In April, the governor of the regulator, Tiff Macklem, said that it was necessary to obtain confirmation of a steady easing of price pressure before starting to adjust the cost of borrowing. At the April meeting, the monetary authorities left the interest rate at 5.00%, the highest since 2001.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580.USD/TRY: Turkey plans full regulation of cryptocurrency transactionsDuring the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows moderate growth, striving to break through the level of 32.2000, in the expectation that the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System will remain unchanged for a long time.The Turkish lira is under pressure due to the difficult economic situation in the country, where inflation exceeds 69.0%. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics (Turkstat), the consumer price index increased from 68.5% to 69.80% year-on-year, which is the highest value since November 2022. Despite this, the official authorities declare an increase in confidence in the national economy and hope for a gradual change in the negative trend.Meanwhile, the Justice and Development Party of Turkey has put forward a bill aimed at full control over transactions with digital assets, including taxation of their purchase and sale. The bill also provides rules for licensing trading platforms, exchanges and brokers, as well as regulating their relationships with customers. These measures are necessary to exit the "grey list" of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF). In addition, the document assumes the participation of the Council for Scientific and Technological Research of Turkey in joint work, which contributes to the development of blockchain technologies and related software in the country.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.Silver market overviewSilver is showing a moderate decline, developing the bearish momentum that formed the day before. The quotes have retreated from the recent high at 32.50 and are testing the 30.40 mark for a downward breakdown. Traders are carefully assessing the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the world's leading central banks.Yesterday, the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published. As expected, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted a significant slowdown in the decline in inflation, which may take longer to reach the target levels of 2.0%. Some officials did not rule out the possibility of further tightening monetary policy if necessary. In addition, the April statistics on inflation in the UK attracted the attention of investors. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% in annual terms, which turned out to be higher than the projected 2.1%, and on a monthly basis — from 0.6% to 0.3%, with expectations of 0.2%. The base rate decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while analysts had predicted 3.6%. Against this background, market participants reduced their expectations regarding a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England in June.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.75, 31.13, 31.70.Support levels: 30.15, 29.84, 29.35, ...

EUR/GBP: the interest rate of the European Central Bank remained at 4.50%The euro is at low levels compared to most major currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair shows a corrective movement in morning trading, settling at 0.8541.At yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), officials, as expected, left the main monetary rates unchanged (the main rate is 4.50%, the marginal rate is 4.75%, the deposit rate is 4.00%) and expressed readiness to reduce them if inflationary pressure decreases. Regulators confirmed that the current slowdown in consumer price growth is in line with medium-term expectations, due to lower prices for food and household goods, but did not specify the timing of a possible change in interest rates. It also announced plans to complete the reinvestment program for emergency asset purchases due to COVID-19 by the end of the year and significantly reduce the asset purchase program. The reduction of the emergency procurement program is taking place at a rate of 7.5 billion euros per month, which will allow it to be completed by the end of November or December.UK economic growth remains weak: in February, GDP growth was, as expected, only 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%, and this led to a decrease in annual growth to -0.2%. Among the main factors of such dynamics are industrial production, which increased by 1.1%, improving the annual rate to 1.4%, and the construction sector, where a decrease of 1.9% on a monthly basis and 2.0% year-on-year was recorded.Resistance levels: 0.8560, 0.8600.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8480.USD/TRY: Investors tend to take profits after a week of growthThe USD/TRY currency pair shows ambiguous trends, holding near the level of 32.3165. Traders are refraining from opening new positions on Friday due to the expectation of a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as due to the profit-taking mood after moderate growth during the week. Earlier, the US dollar was helped by inflation data, which increased investors' doubts about the imminent reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate by 25 basis points in June.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to economic difficulties in the country. Despite the efforts of monetary authorities and a significant increase in rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, annual inflation accelerated from 67.07% in February to 68.50% in March. At the same time, independent analysts from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) record an annual price increase of more than 120%. Additionally, on April 9, the Turkish Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on the export of 54 categories of goods to Israel, including cement, glass, iron, aluminum and steel, which puts additional pressure on the already strained construction sector. These sanctions, in effect until the end of hostilities and the creation of conditions for free humanitarian aid to Gaza, are likely to raise prices for both Israeli and Turkish consumers.Resistance levels: 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000.Support levels: 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306.NZD/USD: the US currency has reached a new recordThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction near the 0.5995 level, as the New Zealand currency is facing difficulties in trying to regain its position against the background of disappointing macroeconomic statistics.The March report showed that spending via e-cards in New Zealand decreased by 0.7%, which in absolute terms is a decrease of NZ$ 45 million compared to February. Compared to March of the previous year, 2023, the total amount of expenses decreased by 3.0%. This decrease was recorded in almost all key sectors of the economy: of the seven main sectors, only wholesale trade, with the exception of services, showed an increase of 2.1%. The biggest deterioration was seen in the sectors related to sales of clothing and motor vehicles, each of which showed a 2.2% drop. There was also a decrease in the fuel sectors by 1.4%, durable goods by 0.3% and consumables by 0.2%.These data indicate continued pressure on the New Zealand economy, which negatively affects the national currency and contributes to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The lack of significant improvement in economic indicators may continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil have stabilized at 85.09 in a sideways trend driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and seasonal growth in global fuel demand.The situation in the Middle East remains tense with expectations of possible Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which has led to warnings for citizens of some countries to visit the region. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report predicted that global oil demand will increase to 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, and decrease to 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. A seasonal increase in fuel consumption is also expected in the second quarter: demand for aviation kerosene will grow by 600 thousand barrels per day, for gasoline — by 400 thousand, and for diesel fuel — by 200 thousand barrels per day.Resistance levels: 86.30, 90.00.Support levels: 84.00, ...

EUR/USD: Eurozone sentiment index signals improved prospectsThe EUR/USD currency pair follows the correction rate, being at 1.0823.Market activity has slowed in recent days due to traders' preference to avoid new deals amid the approaching Easter weekend, although economic data looks relatively favorable. For example, the consumer price index in Spain increased from 0.4% to 0.8% on a monthly basis in March and from 2.8% to 3.2% year-on-year. The index, harmonized with EU standards, showed an increase of 1.3% for the month, reaching the highest value since June 2022 and accelerating from 2.9% to 3.2% year-on-year. The EU consumer confidence index fell from -14.9 to -15.5 points, inflation expectations rose from 3.9 to 5.6 points, and the index of expectations in the service sector rose from 6.0 to 6.3 points. Market optimism is fueled by the anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Today, the chairman of the Bank of Italy, Piero Cipollone, expressed confidence that inflation will fall to the target level of 2.0% by mid-2025, based on a slowdown in wage growth, which may be the basis for adapting monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0980.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0700.USD/TRY: tourist growth in Turkey reached 22.68 in February%During the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY rate continues to show an upward trend on the short-term horizon, approaching the level of 32.3060 for a possible breakout, ahead of the publication of important statistics on consumer inflation in the United States.The Turkish lira is losing ground amid the current economic difficulties in the country. Recently, the Central Bank of Turkey increased the key rate by 500 basis points to 50%, which came as a surprise to analysts who expected a 250-point increase or stabilization of the rate. Inflation expectations remain stable on the part of the government: it is assumed that by the end of the year the inflation rate will reach 36%, and by 2025 it will decrease to 14%. The beginning of the tourist season contributes to a partial economic recovery: in February, the number of foreign tourists increased to 22.68%, reaching 2.3 million people, of whom 1.3 million visited Istanbul. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his intention to attract 60 million tourists this year, which should bring the country an income of $ 60 billion. Last year, 56.7 million people visited Turkey, which is 12% more than the previous year, bringing in revenue of 54.3 billion dollars, which is an increase of 16.9%.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/JPY: currency pair stabilizes near historical peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair is approaching the 151.35 mark, with the yen at its lowest levels since 1990. The discussion of the possibility of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan has again intensified among market participants, recalling last year's events when the exchange rate exceeded 145.00.The central bank's rejection of negative interest rates did not bring significant support to the national currency, as this decision was predictable. Analysts' attention is focused on the potential tightening of monetary policy, the prospects for which remain vague.Representatives of the Bank of Japan stressed their intention to continue applying a soft monetary policy and maintain the current volume of interventions in the government bond market. Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Japan, expressed the view that it is necessary to consistently focus on tightening the monetary sphere and warned against the dangers of aggressively increasing the cost of lending in the event of too rapid inflation.Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.00, 152.50, 153.00.Support levels: 151.00, 150.50, 150.00, 149.50.Silver market analysisThe price of silver shows a moderate increase, approaching the indicator of 24.70 and continuing the growth that began a day earlier, after moving away from the minimum values on March 13 against the background of unclear expectations for easing the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. A previous statement by the US central bank eased concerns about a slowdown in the pace of lower lending costs this year: markets are still anticipating three interest rate adjustments of 25 basis points each, with the first expected step in June.The final data on gross domestic product (GDP) will be in the focus of traders' attention today The United States for the fourth quarter of 2023 and statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 22 will increase from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 24.71, 25.00, 25.35, 25.58.Support levels: 24.40, 24.20, 24.00, ...

NZD/USD: pair's attempt to break through the 0.6100 level upThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing uncertainty at 0.6100, with traders waiting for today's economic reports from the US before deciding on new deals.Particular attention is paid to the January statistics on manufacturing inflation in the United States, which will complement the recently published data on consumer price inflation. The consumer price index for January showed a slowdown from 3.4% to 3.1% per annum, exceeding expectations at 2.9%, while the monthly index increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the forecast of 3.7%. These data led to a revision of expectations for a reduction in Federal Reserve rates, supporting the US dollar. Meanwhile, previous economic data dampened market optimism, with January retail sales falling 0.8% after rising 0.4% in December, which was significantly worse than the expected 0.1% decrease.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6192.Support levels: 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.USD/TRY: new head of the Central Bank of Turkey supports strict policyIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, striving to overcome the 30.8000 level, approaching the next key mark of 31.0000.The Turkish lira is under increasing pressure due to internal economic challenges, while the decisive position of the Central Bank of Turkey has failed to support the currency. The market's attention is focused on the actions of the new chairman Fatih Karakhan, who replaced Hafiz Gaye Ercan, who failed to cope with the task of reducing inflation. During her tenure, the key rate was adjusted eight times, the last time to 45% on January 25, but inflation accelerated from 47% to 64.86%. These measures proved insufficient to stabilize the economic situation against the background of high consumer demand and an increase in the minimum wage, which was increased by 34% in July and by 49% at the beginning of this year. Karakhan confirmed his intention to continue strict monetary policy with worsening inflation forecasts expected at 36% by the end of the year, 14% by the end of 2025 and 9% in 2026. He predicts a peak in price pressure in May, followed by a slowdown in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 30.8100, 30.9188, 31.0000, 31.1000.Support levels: 30.7230, 30.6500, 30.5500, 30.4526.GBP/USD: British economy has entered a state of technical recessionThe GBP/USD trading instrument is retreating, approaching 1.2580 downwards, against the background of stable USD dynamics.The report on the British economy for the fourth quarter confirmed the entry into a technical recession: GDP for December fell by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, leading to a decrease in the quarterly figure from -0.1% to -0.3%, against an increase of 0.2% a year earlier. Despite this, some economic sectors are showing signs of recovery: December industrial production increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Today's data showed an increase in retail sales in January from -3.3% to 3.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 1.5%, and from -2.4% to 0.7% year-on-year, contrary to expectations of a decline to -1.4%, which contributed to the support of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2380.Crude Oil market analysisBrent oil prices are showing stability, hovering around $82.30 per barrel. Prices jumped yesterday, responding to American economic statistics.However, this week, the growth of oil reserves in the United States has brought instability to market sentiment. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that in the week ended February 9, inventories increased by 12.018 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected an increase of 2.56 million barrels. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its expectations for oil demand for the current year, predicting a decrease to 1.22 million tons. barrels per day from previous estimates of 1.24 million, while predicting a greater increase in supply by 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply compared to expectations of 1.5 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, ...

AUD/USD: the deterioration of trends in the Australian real estate market continuesBefore the close of the weekly session, the AUD/USD pair shows moderate growth, reflecting the local weakening of the US dollar and the desire to gain a foothold above the 0.6595 level.The latest data from the real estate sector is a deterrent for the Australian dollar. December showed a decrease in the issuance of construction permits by 9.5%, indicating an annual decrease in activity by 2%. In particular, the decline in permits for the construction of private houses amounted to -0.5%, reflecting a decrease in interest in housing, confirmed by a drop in the issuance of housing loans by -5.6% and a decrease in investment in construction by -1.3%.The US dollar did not show the expected strengthening yesterday, ending the day at 102.800 on the USDX index, which was the first case of a decline below 103.000 since last week. The reason was negative employment statistics in the United States, including an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits and an increase in the total number of applications for help.Today, traders are cautious, waiting for the publication of the January report on the US labor market, which may confirm the trend towards lower average hourly wages and higher unemployment, which affects the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6620, 0.6720.Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6460.USD/TRY: Turkey introduces measures to support savings in liraIn the Asian session, USD/TRY showed growth, approaching 30.4500 after updating weekly highs to 30.6267 against the background of statements by the US Federal Reserve System. The Fed left the key rate at 5.5%, cooling market expectations of an early easing of monetary policy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need to further confirm the reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0% before changing the policy course.The US dollar came under pressure due to data from the labor market, where the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, contradicting forecasts of a decline. Investors are refraining from opening new positions ahead of the publication of the US labor market report for January, anticipating a possible increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in average wage growth.Meanwhile, Turkey's central bank recently increased the rate to 45% in an effort to contain inflation, which reached 65% in December. In response to economic challenges, the bank has introduced new measures to strengthen the lira, including increasing reserve requirements for foreign currency deposits and increasing the cost of maintaining client accounts in foreign currencies for banks.Resistance levels: 30.4526, 30.5500, 30.6500, 30.7500.Support levels: 30.3146, 30.2000, 30.1000, 29.9729.USD/CHF: Dollar stabilizes ahead of US Labor Market reportThe USD/CHF currency pair shows mixed activity, remaining near the 0.8570 level, with the prospect of ending the week with a slight drop. Despite the lull among investors ahead of the release of the US labor market report for January today.The average hourly wage is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% in January, while the annual rate should remain at 4.1%. Preliminary forecasts also indicate a possible increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the pace of job creation in the US economy outside the agricultural sector is likely to decrease from 216.0 thousand to 180.0 thousand. It is assumed that these data will have little effect on changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, given recent statements about the need for further evidence of a reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0% before any change in the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the market continues to hope for an interest rate adjustment in March and June, and also analyzes recent unemployment statistics, with an increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment assistance in the week to January 26 from 215.0 thousand. to 224.0 thousand, exceeding analysts' expectations by 212.0 thousand, and an increase in the number of repeat applications in the week to January 19 from 1.828 million to 1.898 million, contrary to the forecast of 1.840 million.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8665, 0.8700.Support levels: 0.8553, 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400.Crude Oil market analysisThe cost of WTI Crude Oil is experiencing a drop, being at the level of $ 74 per barrel.Oil price volatility continues against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions: the growing conflict between the Houthis of Yemen and the coalition of naval forces, whose goal is to protect peaceful navigation in the Red Sea. Bloomberg reports indicate a 50% decrease in tanker traffic through the Suez Canal, while the volume of maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope remains unchanged. This situation causes delays in delivery, affecting the increase in prices of goods. Experts cannot yet predict the impact of these events on oil supplies to the European Union, but there are suggestions of a potential shortage, given the rise in diesel prices above $ 1,000 per ton. At the same time, Russian oil transportation is experiencing lower risks. According to an analysis from Vortexa Ltd., despite the decline in shipments through the Red Sea since December, the last week showed that volumes are still 20% higher than the average for 2023. The representative of the Houthis, Muhammad Ali al-Buheiti, in an interview with RTL and N-tv, stressed that ships from Russia, China, and Germany are not targets for their actions.Resistance levels: 75.40, 79.10.Support levels: 72.70, ...

EUR/GBP: the euro is experiencing growth after December lowsThe EUR/GBP currency pair is seeing a moderate rise, reaching the level of 0.8567, moving away from the lows of December 11 and recovering from the losses of recent days. Investors are analyzing economic reports from the eurozone and the UK, assessing their impact on the upcoming policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, especially in the context of possible changes in interest rates.Wednesday brought data on the eurozone's core consumer price index, which showed an increase from 0.4% to 0.5% in December, in line with expectations of a delay in the transition to a softer monetary policy. It is also worth noting the recent speech by Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, who did not rule out a change in the cost of borrowing, but indicated that this would not happen until the summer of 2024. A Reuters poll of economists shows that most expect the ECB to cut interest rates in the second quarter, with 45.0% of respondents anticipating a change in rhetoric at the June meeting. At the moment, market participants are considering the possibility of a correction of 150 basis points during the year, although ECB representatives have recently expressed caution, not even excluding maintaining the current rate level for the whole of 2024. The pressure on the euro increased yesterday after the publication of data for November on construction production volumes, which showed an acceleration in the decline from -0.6% to -1.0% on a monthly basis and from -0.7% to -2.2% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 0.8585, 0.8611, 0.8632, 0.8656.Support levels: 0.8552, 0.8521, 0.8500, 0.8479.USD/CHF: moves to an uptrend this weekAs a result of the strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair showed strengthening, trying to overcome the resistance barrier at 0.8682.The pair's growth is fueled by the latest macroeconomic reports: the number of construction permits issued in December reached 1.495 million, which exceeds the forecast of 1.480 million, and the volume of new housing construction amounted to 1.460 million, ahead of expectations of 1.426 million.Meanwhile, in Switzerland, the average annual inflation rate in 2023 was 2.1%, caused by higher prices for electricity, gas and rental housing, while the cost of petroleum products, package communication services and medicines decreased. Local goods rose in price by 2.4%, while imported goods rose by 1.4%. For comparison, in 2022 and 2021, the average annual consumer price indices were 2.8% and 0.6%, respectively. Today's producer price indicator, the monthly indicator of which corresponds to analysts' forecasts at -0.6%, slowed its negative dynamics from -1.3% to -1.1% year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing difficulties in the national economy.Resistance levels: 0.8682, 0.8807, 0.8898.Support levels: 0.8541, 0.8387.USD/TRY: prospects for strengthening the lira are weakThe USD/TRY pair shows an increase, trading at around 30.1870, despite encouraging economic indicators from Turkey and the strengthening of the US dollar.Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) show that in December, the producer price index in agriculture increased by 6.34% over the month and by 52.66% year-on-year, largely due to an increase in fruit prices by 170.59%, eggs and poultry meat by 102.77%, legumes by 26.76% and fibrous crops by 25.93%. At the same time, the tense situation in the Red Sea has led to an increase in demand for transportation through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, the development of which is actively supported by Turkey.Therefore, despite the potential for growth and development of the Turkish economy, the strengthening of the Turkish lira seems unlikely, and the USD/TRY pair is expected to continue its positive movement.Resistance levels: 30.2925, 30.6011.Support levels: 30.0692, 29.7398.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, WTI Crude Oil prices show mixed changes, stabilizing around the 74.00 mark.The latest report from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) on the state of fuel reserves on January 12 indicates a decrease of 2.492 million barrels to 429.0 million barrels, which contradicts the previous increase of 1.338 million barrels and experts' forecasts of a decrease of 0.313 million barrels. The current level of oil and petroleum products reserves is about 3.0% below the average over the past five years. This week, investors will closely monitor the US data on the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market for December and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for January, which, according to forecasts, may increase from 69.7 to 70.0 points.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 73.00, 71.77, 71.00, ...

USD/TRY: the rise of the minimum wage in Turkey puts pressure on the value of the liraThe USD/TRY currency pair is gaining momentum in an uptrend, reaching a new historical high after the statement by Turkish Labor Minister Vedat Ishihan about a significant increase in the minimum wage in the country to 17,002 thousand liras this year. This step, which exceeds last year's figure by half, led to an accelerated increase in inflation: the December consumer price index jumped to 64.77%, reaching an annual maximum. The Central Bank of Turkey predicts a further increase in inflation to over 70.0% in May 2024, followed by a decrease to 36.0% by the end of the year.Technical factors continue to support the US dollar, which is also responding to recent economic reports. Data from ADP showed an increase in employment in the US private sector, and unemployment statistics indicate a decrease in the number of applications for benefits. These factors contribute to strengthening the position of the US dollar against the Turkish lira.Resistance levels: 29.8683, 30.0000, 30.1500, 30.3000.Support levels: 29.7012, 29.4861, 29.3000, 29.0589.USD/CAD: the US dollar is strengthening ahead of the release of labor market dataThe USD/CAD currency pair continues to strengthen, approaching the 1.3360 mark and updating recent highs.Today's restraint of traders is due to the upcoming publication of the report on the American labor market for December. Forecasts indicate a decrease in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 199.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the average hourly income will decrease from 4.0% to 3.9%. The market's attention is also focused on the recent ADP report, which showed an increase in employment in the US private sector to 164.0 thousand, exceeding expectations of 115.0 thousand. In addition, the decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits to 202.0 thousand. confirms the stability of the labor market. Information about a possible reduction in Fed rates by the end of the year, revealed in the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, also has a positive effect on the dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1 3250, 1.3200.GBP/USD: British services sector shows signs of business recoveryThe GBP/USD pair is hovering around 1.2680 in the Asian session, showing uncertainty in recovering positions lost at the beginning of the week, against the background of encouraging economic data from the UK.The index of business activity in the British services sector in December rose to a July high of 53.4 points from 50.9, raising the composite index to a six-month high of 52.1 points. In the banking sector, the volume of consumer loans increased to 2.005 billion pounds in November, and the number of approved mortgage loans increased to 50.07 thousand.On the other hand, the US dollar strengthened to 102.200 in USDX, reflecting positive data on the labor market: an increase in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector to 164.0 thousand in December and a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits to 202.0 thousand, which reduced the total number of applications to 1.855 million.Support levels: 1.2610, 1.2500.Resistance levels: 1.2730, 1.2830.Crude Oil Market AnalysisIn the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil prices are slightly rising, testing the 72.70 mark, expecting the week to close with a slight increase, while investors are taking a cautious position ahead of the December report on the US labor market.The increase in quotations was caused by the news about the explosions in Kerman, Iran, on the memorial day of General Qasem Suleimani, and the shutdown of production at the Libyan field producing about 300.0 thousand barrels per day due to protests.The market is going through a phase of global correction. According to the latest CFTC data, over the past week, net speculative positions in oil increased from 182.7 thousand to 199.3 thousand. In the context of the market balance, there is an increase in bullish positions among swap dealers to 18,382 thousand, while bearish positions amounted to 45,186 thousand. Over the past week, buyers slightly increased the number of contracts by 0.849 thousand, while sellers reduced them by 0.051 thousand, which indicates the wait-and-see position of market participants during this transition period.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 71.77, 71.00, 70.00, ...

The Turkish lira continues to rewrite historical lows. Over the past year, it has weakened by 110% against the dollar, which has earned the status of one of the worst investments in the world. We understand the reasons for such a rapid decline and the risks for the global financial system.Hawks vs. PigeonsBack in March 2021, the then head of the Central Bank of Turkey, Naji Agbal, raised the key rate from 17 to 19%. The reason for the tight monetary policy is high inflation, which by that time had reached almost 16%. The high rate was planned to be kept until the price increase was stopped.Agbala's "hawkish" rhetoric was not to the taste of the country's president Erdogan, who believes that the rigid PREP, on the contrary, only accelerates inflation. As a result, the chair of the head of the Central Bank was occupied by Sahap Kavcioglu, who supports the opinion of the national leader.Since September, a gradual reduction in the key rate has begun: from 19 to 14%. The last decline occurred on December 16, it served as another trigger for the weakening of the Turkish lira. In November, official inflation exceeded 20%, and the Central Bank failed to slow down the fall of the national currency, even thanks to the active sale of dollars.What are the forecasts?The depreciation of the Turkish lira has a negative impact primarily on the financial situation of the Turkish population. In real terms, the key rate is, in fact, negative, which only accelerates the growth of consumer prices.There are no prerequisites that the situation will change in the foreseeable future. Erdogan and his supporters continue to believe that there is no alternative to an investment-oriented policy.S&P rating agency has changed its outlook for Turkey from stable to negative. The national debt is growing, gold and foreign exchange reserves are shrinking, and the Central Bank of the country continues to lower the key rate against the background of increased inflation.A full-scale crisis in Turkey is capable of provoking a wave of sales in emerging markets, to which Russia belongs. We could observe a kind of rehearsal of the withdrawal of international investors from global asset risks on Monday, December ...