USD/TRY Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, ...

EUR/USD: ECB member Schnabel explains the economic weakness of the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, holding at the level of 1.0460, despite the weakening of the US dollar. Macroeconomic statistics remain weak and do not contribute to the strengthening of the euro. In January, the consumer price index in the eurozone decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, which led to an annual increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. However, core inflation slowed by 0.9%, remaining at 2.7%. This creates the conditions for further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as economic growth continues to slow down. In Germany, the recession is intensifying: in the fourth quarter, GDP decreased from 0.1% to -0.2% month-on-month and from -0.3% to -0.2% year-on-year, indicating a deterioration in the economic situation.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by a decrease in the German consumer climate index from GfK Group, which fell from -22.6 to -24.7 points in March, while analysts had forecast -21.7 points. The reason for the weakening of the indicator was the political instability in the country. Meanwhile, ECB board member Isabelle Schnabel said that the main reason for the economic weakness of the eurozone remains structural problems, and not the high cost of borrowing, which, according to some experts, limits lending and slows down economic growth.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0240.USD/CHF: Bullish momentum is gaining strength, the dollar is strengtheningThe USD/CHF pair continues to grow steadily during the morning trading session, developing an upward movement that began the day before after a rebound from the local lows of December 23, 2024. Quotes are approaching the level of 0.8970, testing the level for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for the release of important macroeconomic data from the United States that can set the further direction of movement.Investors' main attention today is focused on the publication at 15:30 (GMT+2) of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as on January statistics on orders for durable goods. The growth rate of the US economy is expected to remain at 2.3%, while orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after a decrease of -2.2% a month earlier. The indicator, excluding defense and aviation contracts, is projected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will also be published today: it is assumed that the number of initial applications for the week ending February 21 will increase from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the period up to February 14) will remain at 1.869 million. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will monitor the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the personal consumption expenditures index. According to forecasts, the base rate in annual terms may slow down from 2.8% to 2.6%, while on a monthly basis it is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%. At the same time, the broader index is likely to decline from 2.6% to 2.3%, while maintaining growth at 0.3%. These data may affect the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy and the further dynamics of the dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident of success of Erdogan's reformsThe USD/TRY pair remains in a sideways movement, trading near 36.4500 and the recent high of 36.5400, updated at the end of last week. The activity of dollar buyers has decreased against the background of the current macroeconomic background, however, rising yields on US Treasury bonds support demand for the US currency. At the same time, traders take profits by closing some of their long positions, which limits the potential for further appreciation.The lira may strengthen if the forecasts of the Central Bank of Turkey turn out to be correct, but the economic situation remains difficult. Annual inflation slowed to 42.12% in January, but against the background of an increase in the minimum wage, monthly consumer price growth was 5.03%. Investors also drew attention to the refusal of the authorities from the planned increase in the cost of medical services, which may ease inflationary pressure in the coming months: according to preliminary forecasts, the indicator may decrease to 3.0% in February. Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that the ongoing structural reform program presented by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the congress of the ruling Justice and Development Party should help stabilize prices, strengthen budget discipline and reduce the current account deficit. The Head of State noted that over the past 22 years, the volume of industrial production with high added value has grown from $95.0 billion to $320.0 billion, and in terms of purchasing power parity, Turkey ranked 11th in the world and 4th in the European Union in 2023.Resistance levels: 36.5000, 36.5406, 36.6000, 36.6500.Support levels: 36.4000, 36.3189, 36.2000, 36.1000.Silver market analysisSilver quotes are showing a downward movement in morning trading, declining again after a slight increase the day before, which temporarily allowed quotes to retreat from the lows of February 11, updated on Tuesday. The asset is testing support at 31.60, being under pressure from the strengthening US dollar. The US currency is supported by technical factors, rising Treasury yields, as well as President Donald Trump's tough tariff policy, which promotes capital outflow into defensive assets. An additional impact is the growing industrial demand, especially in the renewable energy sector, as well as the projected shortage of silver supplies against the background of positive forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for global economic growth in 2025.Investors are awaiting key macroeconomic reports from the United States today, which are scheduled to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). Among them are GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 and information on durable goods orders for January. Analysts' forecasts suggest that economic growth will remain at 2.3%, and orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after falling by -2.2% a month earlier. Excluding aviation and defense contracts, the indicator is expected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. The market will also pay attention to statistics on unemployment benefits: the number of initial applications for the week of February 21 is expected to grow from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the week of February 14) will remain at 1.869 million.The correction in the precious metals market continues, as confirmed by the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the regulator, net speculative positions in silver increased from 49.7 thousand to 54.5 thousand in a week. The balance of market participants has also shifted towards the bulls: their positions secured by real money have increased to 59,139 thousand, while the bears remain at 19,737 thousand. Over the past week, traders have opened an additional 4,380 thousand. purchase contracts, while sales increased by only 0.030 thousand, which indicates continued interest in the asset even against the background of a short-term decline.Resistance levels: 32.00, 32.27, 32.60, 33.00.Support levels: 31.56, 31.30, 31.00, ...

EUR/GBP: the market is waiting for fresh drivers to guide the trendThe European currency remains in the consolidation phase in the EUR/GBP pair, showing weak dynamics at 0.8325 during the morning session. The market is waiting for new fundamental factors that can determine the vector of movement of quotations. Investors are focused on the upcoming publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone for the fourth quarter of 2024, which will take place at 12:00 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the quarterly figure will remain at 0.0%, and in annual terms – at 0.9%. Employment data for the same period is also expected: analysts expect it to decrease from 0.2% to 0.1% on a quarterly basis and from 1.0% to 0.8% on an annual basis. Additional attention will be focused on the Spanish inflation statistics, which will be released at 10:00 (GMT+2): experts expect the consumer price index to remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.0% on an annual basis.The British pound continues to receive support from the strong macroeconomic data released earlier. Thus, the national GDP of the United Kingdom in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased from 1.0% to 1.4% in annual terms, exceeding the projected 1.1%, and the quarterly figure strengthened from 0.0% to 0.1%, although some economists did not rule out a decrease of 0.1%. In December, economic activity accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%, which was also higher than expected. However, analysts remain cautious in their forecasts, pointing out that the growth is temporary, as the tax increases planned in the new budget may negatively affect business investment activity and the purchasing power of the population. Additional support for the pound was provided by positive statistics on industrial production: in December, the volume of the sector increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.5% in November, while analysts expected a more modest increase of 0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator was adjusted from -1.8% to -1.9%, which is better than the expected value of -2.1%. Manufacturing output increased by 0.7% after falling 0.3% a month earlier, and year-on-year the decline was -1.4% against the expected -1.9%. Representatives of the Bank of England also contributed to the support of the national currency: the regulator's chief economist Hugh Pill and board member Megan Green warned against a hasty reduction in interest rates, stressing that the fight against inflation is far from over.Resistance levels: 0.8326, 0.8340, 0.8355, 0.8370.Support levels: 0.8310, 0.8290, 0.8280, 0.8259.USD/CHF: US economic reports for January in focusThe USD/CHF pair is showing recovery during morning trading, testing the 0.9045 level for an upward breakout. Market participants remain cautious, awaiting the emergence of new macroeconomic drivers.Retail sales data for January will be published in the United States today at 15:30 (GMT+2): analysts predict a decrease from 0.4% to -0.1%, and excluding the automotive segment, a slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% is expected. At 16:15 (GMT+2), a report on industrial production will be released: it is expected to grow by 0.3% against 0.9% a month earlier. Traders' attention is also focused on inflation data: the producer price index rose from 3.3% to 3.5% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts (3.2%), and decreased from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The base index excluding food and energy resources decreased from 3.7% to 3.6% (forecast: 3.3%). These figures correspond to the "hawkish" position of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who previously stated that in the face of continuing inflationary pressures, it is impractical to rush to lower interest rates.In Switzerland, inflation data was released on Thursday.: The consumer price index decreased from 0.6% to 0.4% in annual terms and remained at 0.1% on a monthly basis. Producer and import price indices are expected to be published today at 09:30 (GMT+2): analysts predict an increase of 0.1% after the December stagnation. UBS Group AG experts warn that the possible introduction of increased US customs duties on Swiss products could put pressure on the pharmaceutical industry, which accounts for 60% of the country's total exports. In the future, this may lead to a partial relocation of production facilities and research centers of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the United States.Resistance levels: 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130.Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8929, 0.8900.USD/TRY: Lira remains under pressure, growth prospects unclearThe Turkish lira continues to weaken, and the USD/TRY pair is showing growth, trading around 36.1920 during the Asian session.The published macroeconomic statistics do not support the national currency: in December, the construction cost index increased by 34.27% year-on-year and by 0.7% month-on-month. At the same time, the cost of construction of residential buildings increased by 34.67% over the year and by 0.66% over the month, and civil engineering — by 33.0% and 0.81%, respectively. This indicates a slowdown in the pace of new housing construction caused by a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, which is under severe pressure from high inflation. Against the background of domestic economic problems, the Turkish authorities continue to strengthen international relations, expanding cooperation with Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan. The trade turnover with these countries has already exceeded $8.0 billion, and during the three-day visit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to conclude new agreements in strategic sectors, including defense, aviation, energy, infrastructure, healthcare, education, agriculture, tourism and the digital economy.However, even increased foreign economic activity is unlikely to be able to compensate for Turkey's structural problems, which makes the lira unlikely to strengthen. Under these conditions, the US currency is likely to continue to dominate the USD/TRY pair, maintaining its current positions in the medium term.Resistance levels: 36.3000, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.0000, 35.3000.NZD/USD: the exchange rate increases growth, breaking through local levelsThe New Zealand dollar is showing moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair during the Asian session, continuing the upward movement that began the day before and updating local highs since February 7 near the 0.5685 mark.The asset is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics: the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose from 45.9 to 51.4 points in January, and the food price index accelerated from 0.1% to 1.9%, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to further reduce interest rates. At the same time, the regulator presented an updated inflation forecast for the first quarter of 2025, adjusting expectations from 2.12% to 2.06%, which is almost in line with the target level of 2.0%. The New Zealand dollar reacted to these changes with a decline, as the likelihood of further monetary policy easing increased.Additional attention of investors was attracted by the telephone conversation between the presidents of the United States and Russia, which took place on February 12. Issues of prisoner exchange, settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the possibility of a personal meeting between the two leaders were discussed, which could potentially have a positive impact on global economic sentiment. However, the protectionist course of the Donald Trump administration continues to cause concern in the markets. So, it became known that the American president instructed to develop new retaliatory duties against countries that restrict imports of goods from the United States. It is expected that the first of them may enter into force as early as April 1, which creates additional risks for global trade.Resistance levels: 0.5700, 0.5723, 0.5750, 0.5775.Support levels: 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633, ...

GBP/USD: British regulator announces rate cutThe GBP/USD pair shows a moderate decline at the beginning of the trading session, consolidating around 1.2425. Market participants are taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the publication of the January report on the US labor market, scheduled for 15:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector will decrease from 256.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand, the average hourly wage will decrease from 3.9% to 3.8% year-on-year, and will remain at 0.3% month-on-month. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.1%. Despite the increasing pressure, the labor market remains stable amid the current measures of the US Federal Reserve. Additional attention of investors was attracted by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, who noted that the strengthening of the tariff policy of the republican administration could provoke an increase in inflation comparable to the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also expressed concern that the introduction of new import duties could have a more serious impact on consumer price dynamics than during the first presidential term of Donald Trump.The British market is focused on the January data on the house price index from Halifax Bank Plc.: analysts predict an increase of 0.2% after a decrease of 0.2% a month earlier. In addition, investors are assessing the results of the Bank of England meeting that ended the day before. As expected, the regulator lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, while two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported more aggressive easing, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points immediately. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further decisions in the field of monetary policy will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. The regulator's official statement indicates that inflation slowed to 2.5% in the fourth quarter, but the positive trend may be temporarily disrupted due to adjustments in energy and utility prices. It is expected that the indicator will reach the target level of 2.0% no earlier than the end of 2027. At the same time, economic growth turned out to be weaker than November forecasts, and consumer and business confidence continues to decline, which creates additional pressure on the British currency.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.AUD/USD: the exchange rate maintains positions at local highsThe Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during Asian trading, holding near the level of 0.6280 and local peaks on January 27. Ending the week on a positive note, the exchange rate compensated for the recent decline, when quotes reached their lowest values since April 2020.At the same time, Australia's macroeconomic statistics leave a contradictory impression. In December, exports slowed from 4.2% to 1.1%, while imports increased sharply from 1.4% to 5.9%, resulting in a decrease in the trade surplus from $6.792 million to $5.085 million. The analysts' forecast assumed a result of 7.0 million dollars. The National Bank of Australia's business confidence index for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed only a slight recovery, rising from -7.0 to -4.0 points. The growth of the tourist flow provides some support to the national economy. This New Year's season, the number of Chinese citizens traveling abroad increased by almost 30.0% compared to last year, which has already affected the Australian market. In 2023, Chinese tourists brought in over $300.0 million to Western Australia, stimulating the development of the hospitality industry and partially offsetting the region's dependence on raw material exports. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, up to 1.5 million Chinese travelers visited Australia annually, spending a total of about $12.0 billion.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6320, 0.6372, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6274, 0.6250, 0.6225, 0.6200.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident in strengthening liraThe USD/TRY pair is strengthening during the morning session, recovering the losses of the last two days and testing the 36.0000 mark again. Investors continue to closely monitor the trade policy of the administration of US President Donald Trump, which remains a key factor in market uncertainty.Since February 1, the White House has imposed new import duties: Chinese goods are subject to a 10.0% tax, and products from Canada and Mexico — 25.0%, with the exception of Canadian energy resources, for which a tariff of 10.0% is set. However, the very next day, the deadline for the introduction of the latest restrictions was postponed for a month due to agreements to strengthen border control aimed at combating illegal migration and smuggling of prohibited substances. Now the United States can extend similar measures to the European Union, which is ready to respond with symmetrical sanctions. In addition, the focus is on Trump's statement about the possible transfer of the Gaza Strip to the United States after the end of the military conflict between Israel and Hamas, followed by the eviction of its residents. The Turkish authorities strongly condemned the plan, calling it "unacceptable" and pointing to the historical nature of the conflict, exacerbated by such initiatives.Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek expressed confidence that the national currency will continue to strengthen if the current economic rate remains unchanged. He stressed that slowing inflation remains the government's key task, and the Central Bank should continue its tight credit policy. According to him, achieving the goals set will help return the economy to sustainable growth at 5.0% in real terms.Resistance levels: 36.0000, 36.1000, 36.2000, 36.3000.Support levels: 35.8800, 35.8000, 35.7250, 35.6500.USD/CAD: Canadians approve retaliatory duties on US sanctionsThe USD/CAD pair is showing a correction around 1.4320, and the Canadian dollar is strengthening, almost leveling off the losses recorded last week.The US tariffs of 25.0% on exports from Canada were postponed for 30 days just a few hours after their official introduction. According to analysts, this measure was rather a tool of pressure from Washington in negotiations on migration policy. However, according to a Nanos Research Group study, 80.0% of Canadians are in favor of retaliatory trade duties on oil supplies if the Donald Trump administration decides to impose restrictions. The greatest support for such measures was recorded in the Atlantic Provinces (89.0%), where the main offshore projects are concentrated. At the same time, 79.0% of respondents said that the government should introduce "mirror" tariffs, even if this leads to an acceleration of inflation.Despite the positive attitude of the society, the pressure on the Canadian currency is increasing due to weak macroeconomic indicators. The Ivey business activity index fell from 54.7 points to 47.1 points in January, reaching its lowest level since December 2023. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will focus on employment data: the unemployment rate is projected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8% amid a decrease in the number of new jobs from 90.9 thousand to 25.5 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.4420, 1.4710.Support levels: 1.4240, ...

EUR/USD: European business statistics in traders' focusThe EUR/USD pair is trading in a corrective trend at 1.0461, which is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive statistics from the eurozone.In January, business activity in the French manufacturing sector increased from 41.9 to 45.3 points, in Germany from 42.5 to 44.1 points, and across the eurozone from 45.1 to 46.1 points. The index for the services sector also showed improvement, increasing in France from 49.3 to 48.9 points, in Germany from 51.2 to 52.5 points, and in the eurozone from 51.6 to 51.4 points. The composite indicator for the region rose from 49.6 to 50.2 points, which reinforces expectations of a possible easing of the ECB's policy, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday at 15:45 (GMT+2). Analysts have noted signs of an improvement in business sentiment, which could form the basis for a long-term economic recovery in the region.The US dollar continues to decline, trading at 107.50 in the USDX index. The weakening is due to the statements of President Donald Trump, who initiated reforms in tariff policy. Investors also paid less attention to statistics on the real estate market. In December, sales in the secondary housing market slowed from 4.8% to 2.2%, reaching 4.24 million units compared with 4.15 million a month earlier. Despite the slowdown, the indicators have remained in positive territory for the fourth month, which inspires hopes for further recovery of the sector.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0660.Support levels: 1.0430, 1.0260.USD/TRY: the Central Bank of Turkey lowered the rate to 45.00%During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair is showing growth, approaching the 36.6800 mark and trying to overcome it from above. Despite starting with a gap down, the bulls managed to almost completely compensate for the loss.Market participants expect new impulses that can support the US dollar. On Wednesday, at 21:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, at which, according to forecasts, the regulator will leave the key rate at 4.50%. However, recent statements by President Donald Trump about the need to reduce interest rates soon and the refusal to increase duties on imports from China have created additional pressure on the US currency. At the same time, starting from February 1, it is planned to increase taxes on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, which causes uncertainty among investors.The lira, in turn, continues to lose ground under the influence of internal factors. At a meeting on January 23, the Central Bank of Turkey lowered the interest rate by 250 basis points to 45.00%, reaffirming its commitment to fighting inflation, which has significantly increased the financial burden on households. The regulator announced its intention to create conditions for a gradual reduction in the basic level of consumer prices to 5.0% in the medium term. Meanwhile, in December, annual inflation dropped from 47.09% to 44.38%, but independent analysts believe that the real figures are much higher. The rise in inflation in recent years has been linked to the devaluation of the Turkish lira and the unconventional approach to economic policy pursued by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Resistance levels: 35.7250, 35.8000, 35.8800, 36.0000.Support levels: 35.6500, 35.5589, 35.4159, 35.3000.USD/CHF: recovery after weekly declineThe US currency is showing weak growth against the Swiss franc, partially recovering from an uncertain decline at the end of the previous week: the pair is testing the 0.9070 level for an upward breakout, but the dollar remains influenced by negative macroeconomic data released on Friday. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector in January fell from 56.8 to 52.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than analysts' expectations at 56.5 points, while the indicator for the manufacturing sector increased from 49.4 to 50.1 points, exceeding forecasts of 49.6 points. Additionally, investors' attention was attracted by the decline in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan from 73.2 to 71.1 points.Switzerland is expected to publish December data on foreign trade this week, which may shed light on the state of the national economy. According to previous reports, exports rose to 23.68 billion francs, while imports totaled 18.26 billion francs, which increased the trade surplus to 5.42 billion francs. These indicators reinforced positive expectations regarding the sustainability of the Swiss economy in the face of global uncertainty.Resistance levels: 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9153.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8957, 0.8929.GBP/USD: stochastic warns of short-term risks of overbought instrumentThe pound is retreating from the local highs of January 7, updated at the end of last week, and is now testing the 1.2445 level for a downward breakdown. Investors are waiting for the emergence of new factors that can affect the movement of quotations.Friday's data from the UK, published on January 24, provided the currency with moderate support. The S&P Global index of business activity in the services sector fell from 51.5 points to 51.2 points in January, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 50.6 points. In the manufacturing sector, the index rose from 47.0 points to 48.2 points, also exceeding expectations of 47.1 points, and the composite index increased from 50.4 points to 50.9 points with forecasts of 50.0 points.Rising inflation is once again posing a difficult choice for the Bank of England, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P. He noted that despite signs of economic stagnation and a deteriorating labor market situation that require lower borrowing costs, the regulator may face the need to control inflationary risks. The Bank of England is expected to lower the interest rate from the current 4.75% at its February 6 meeting after higher-than-forecast December inflation data. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose from 0.1% to 0.3%, and on an annual basis it slowed from 2.6% to 2.5%, which turned out to be lower than preliminary calculations. The core index excluding food and energy increased from 0.0% to 0.3%, but decreased from 3.5% to 3.2% in annual terms. Goldman Sachs analysts said that "price pressures were higher than expected," although medium-term inflation forecasts show signs of weakening. Experts predict the growth of the British economy by 0.9% in 2025, which is lower than the consensus estimate of 1.3%, and a reduction in the interest rate to 3.25% by mid-2026.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2359, ...

GBP/USD: the regulator has maintained the current rate of 4.75%The GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2480 mark after the Bank of England expected to keep the key interest rate at 4.75%. The decision was supported by a majority of members of the Monetary Policy Committee - six out of nine participants, while three supported a 25 basis point rate cut, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, assuming only two supporters of such a measure.Analysts note a change in the emphasis in the regulator's rhetoric from "unstable" to "balanced", which indicates a possible continuation of adjustments in 2025. The Bank of England expressed concern about the acceleration of inflation, noting an increase in the consumer price index from 1.7% in September to 2.6% in November, and revised down its GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter from an expected 2.0% to 1.7%. According to experts, the regulator may reduce the rate to 3.50% over the next year in order to adapt to changing economic conditions.The US dollar is showing steady growth, reaching the level of 108.10 in the USDX index. The dynamics are supported by strong macroeconomic statistics: US GDP increased from 3.0% to 3.1% in the third quarter, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 220 thousand, exceeding expectations, and repeat applications decreased to 1.874 million. There was also an increase in sales in the secondary housing market in November by 4.8%, to 4.15 million, which almost reached the March peak of 4.19 million, strengthening the position of the US currency.Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2700.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2300.USD/CHF: Swiss economy expects production growth of 1.7% by 2026The USD/CHF pair is trading in a mixed mode, being at 0.8980. After the publication of macroeconomic data from the United States, the instrument shows a moderate decline, retreating from the local peaks recorded in early July.Statistics provided by Switzerland the day before showed a noticeable drop in exports in November from 27.826 billion to 23.682 billion francs, while imports decreased from 19.801 billion to 18.257 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus decreased from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the country's economy was previously forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. These figures remain below the average annual growth of the Swiss economy, which is 1.8%. SECO analysts emphasize that next year's economic recovery is likely to depend on domestic demand. This is due to the weakening of interest in Swiss goods from key trading partners such as Germany and China, which limits the prospects for the export sector.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100, 0.91 30.Support levels: 0.8957, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey may fall to 47.50% as early as December 26In the morning, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, reaching 35.1500 and updating historical highs. The strengthening of the dollar is associated with expectations of a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, which supports demand for the US currency.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to internal economic challenges. The Central Bank of Turkey is considering the possibility of further reducing the interest rate, which has been held at 50.00% since March. Despite a slight slowdown, annual inflation in the country remains high, reaching 47.0% in November after peaking at 75.45% in May. The authorities plan to reduce the rate to 35.00% in 2024, which creates the prerequisites for a soft monetary policy. Analysts expect that at the meeting scheduled for December 26, the Turkish regulator may reduce the rate by 250 basis points from the current 50.00% to 47.50%. However, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan had previously refrained from making specific statements, saying that the final decision would depend on current economic data and the inflation forecast.Resistance levels: 35.1500, 35.2167, 35.3000, 35.4500.Support levels: 35.1000, 35.0500, 35.0000, 34.9500.NZD/USD: consolidation near minimum levelsThe NZD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.5625 level. Market activity remains low after a sharp drop in the instrument on Wednesday, caused by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which put pressure on the mood of traders.Today's data from New Zealand does not provide significant support to the New Zealand dollar. The ANZ consumer confidence index rose slightly from 99.8 to 100.2 points in December, exports rose from $5.61 billion to $6.48 billion in November, and imports declined from $7.27 billion to $6.92 billion. As a result, the trade deficit decreased to -0.437 billion dollars, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of -1.951 billion dollars, but did not give a serious impetus to the instrument. A day earlier, New Zealand's GDP data for the third quarter was published. On an annualized basis, the economic growth rate slowed by 1.5% after a 0.5% decline a month earlier, although analysts' expectations were -0.4%. In quarterly terms, the indicator increased from -1.1% to 1.0%, exceeding the forecasts of experts who expected a decrease to -0.4%. Although these data indicate some recovery, they do not yet have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.5661, 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5775.Support levels: 0.5607, 0.5563, 0.5511, ...

EUR/GBP: recovery after a series of bearish sessionsThe EUR/GBP pair is showing cautious growth, trading around 0.8328, compensating for losses after mostly bearish sentiment, which this week led to the testing of minimum levels since November 15.The stabilization of inflation in the eurozone, thanks to the efforts of the European Central Bank (ECB), opens up new challenges related to weakening domestic demand and economic uncertainty. Investors are looking forward to the publication of November business activity data in Germany and the eurozone. The S&P Global index of business activity in the eurozone services sector is expected to rise from 51.6 to 51.8 points, while the manufacturing index will remain at 46.0 points. A similar trend is forecast in Germany: the services sector is likely to show growth from 51.6 to 51.7 points, while the manufacturing index will remain at 43.0 points. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Gallo, expressed the opinion that the increase in duties on goods by the administration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump would not have a significant impact on the region's inflation forecasts. He stressed the need to continue the ECB's soft monetary policy with an emphasis on "flexibility and pragmatism" to adapt to changing conditions.Against the British background, attention was drawn to the November consumer confidence index from Gfk Group, which rose from -21.0 to -18.0 points, surpassing forecasts of -22.0 points. CBI analyst Ben Jones noted that the US elections, with their unexpected results, continue to restrain consumer activity, although the situation may improve in the next quarter. Additionally, investors are studying statistics on UK government borrowing, which reached 17.4 billion pounds in October, the second highest figure since 1993. In the first seven months of the current tax year, the debt increased to 96.6 billion pounds, which is 1.1 billion more than the same period last year, raising concerns about the fiscal sustainability of the country.Resistance levels: 0.8326, 0.8340, 0.8350, 0.8359.Support levels: 0.8310, 0.8294, 0.8280, 0.8259.AUD/USD: the expectation of statistics from the United States affects the dynamics of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing to form a weakly expressed "bearish" trend, which originated in the middle of this week. Quotes are once again trying to overcome the psychological support level of 0.6500, while the markets are waiting for fresh triggers to appear for movement.Today's macroeconomic statistics from Australia could not significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing industry from S&P Global rose to 49.4 points in November from the previous value of 47.3 points, which indicates a slowdown in the recession. At the same time, the indicator in the services sector from Commonwealth Bank decreased from 51.0 points to 49.6 points, and the composite index decreased to 49.4 points against October's 50.2 points. These data indicate continuing problems in the economy, although growth in the service sector remains an important factor supporting the overall level of activity.The attention of market participants is shifted to the upcoming American data. At 16:45 (GMT+2), business activity indices in the United States will be published, based on surveys of purchasing and supply managers. Forecasts suggest an improvement: the index in the S&P Global services sector may rise from 55.0 points to 55.3 points, and the indicator in the manufacturing sector from 48.5 points to 48.8 points. Already published statistics on the labor market show mixed dynamics: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended November 15 decreased from 219.0 thousand to 213.0 thousand, which is better than expectations of 220.0 thousand. However, the number of repeat applications increased to 1.908 million against 1.872 million, exceeding the forecast of 1.870 million. This highlights the resilience of the labor sector to the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. It is noteworthy that the comments of the representatives of the regulator remain diverse. Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, noted that inflation, although declining, still remains at a high level, and its slowdown requires a cautious approach to easing monetary policy. This statement adds uncertainty about the next steps of the US financial authorities, which puts pressure on investor sentiment and on the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6536, 0.6570, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6478, 0.6440, 0.6420, 0.6388.USD/TRY: Lira retains weak prospects for strengtheningIn the morning, the USD/TRY pair is trading at around 34.5047, under pressure from weak macroeconomic data from Turkey and the growth of the US dollar.In November, the consumer confidence index in Turkey fell from 80.6 to 79.8 points, which was the first deterioration in the indicator since June this year. However, the index value has remained below the neutral level of 100.0 points for more than five years, indicating continued pessimism among consumers. Serious reductions were recorded in the construction sector in the third quarter: the total area of facilities allowed for construction decreased by 18.9%, the number of building permits decreased by 18.8%, and apartments by 17.0%. This confirms the weakening of activity in one of the key sectors of the economy.Meanwhile, the US dollar is strengthening, reaching 107.00 in the USDX index. This was facilitated by positive data on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 213.0 thousand, which was lower than both the previous week's figure (219.0 thousand) and analysts' expectations (220.0 thousand). The average value over the past four weeks has decreased from 221.50 thousand to 217.75 thousand, although the total number of repeated requests increased to 1.908 million from 1.872 million. This trend reinforces expectations of continued sustained economic recovery in the United States.Resistance levels: 34.6600, 35.5000.Support levels: 34.3000, 33.4000.USD/CAD: price consolidates inside an expanding patternDuring the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair shows a correction, holding at 1.3982 amid the strengthening of the position of the US currency.According to Statistics Canada (StatsCan), in October, the industrial goods price index rose by 1.2% compared to the previous month, breaking a two-month decline, and increased by 1.1% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since April. Commodity prices showed an increase of 3.8%, while the indicator excluding oil and electricity increased by 3.1% month-on-month and decreased by 2.8% year-on-year. This dynamic supports stable growth in industrial production due to lower costs.The US dollar is strengthening, reaching the level of 107.00 in the USDX index — the highest since the end of autumn last year. The main driver of growth was positive indicators in the labor market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 219.0 thousand to 213.0 thousand, while the total number of applications increased to 1.908 million people against 1.872 million a week earlier. The average number of applications over the past four weeks has decreased to 217.75 thousand, which was the lowest value since May. The stability of the labor market confirms the likelihood of the continuation of the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, since current inflation remains localized in certain sectors, in particular, in real estate. This week, Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, said that next year the consumer price index could reach 2.2%, which is close to the target 2.0%, confirming the effectiveness of the monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.4020, 1.4190.Support levels: 1.3930, ...

USD/TRY: Turkey's inflation decline below 10% is expected by the end of 2026During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair demonstrates a multidirectional movement, consolidating at 34.2700 against the background of US macroeconomics data, while market activity remains weak.The October report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment showed an increase from 159.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 115.0 thousand. However, US GDP for the third quarter decreased from 3.0% to 2.8%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. If negative trends continue, the US Federal Reserve may continue to ease monetary policy after a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The actions of the regulator will be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential elections on November 5: if the representative of the Republican Party Donald Trump wins, the US tariff policy may change, which will require a stronger national currency. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), a report on the labor market for October is expected to be published: it is predicted that the number of new jobs outside agriculture will decrease from 254.0 thousand to 111.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage growth will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention will be focused on the September personal consumption expenditure index: the base indicator may slow down from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms and accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3% on a monthly basis.The lira is under pressure due to the unstable economic situation inside the country, although there are signs of optimism. The media reports that the Central Bank of Turkey plans to reduce the interest rate in December from 50.00% to 48.25%, after the regulator left it at the same level for the seventh time in a row on October 17. Annual inflation fell from 51.97% to 49.38% in September, breaking the 50.0% mark for the first time in more than a year. Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that due to strict fiscal and monetary policy, inflation could fall to 10.00% by the end of 2026. He also noted that the Central Bank's reserves have increased by $ 100.0 billion over the past year and a half, and the level of public debt to GDP is 26.0%, which gives Turkey an advantage in terms of economic development.Resistance levels: 34.3096, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/JPY: the interest rate of the Bank of Japan remained 0.25%The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs on July 31, reached at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 152.90 for a breakdown downwards, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market.Today, investors are focused on the results of the Bank of Japan meeting: the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, which coincided with expectations. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the bank, has noted in recent months that any changes will depend on the fulfillment of forecasts for inflation and economic growth, as well as on external factors. Some analysts believe that the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, may increase concern among investors and affect the Japanese market. In the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, the bank forecasts the consumer price index to remain at 2.5%, with a possible decrease to 1.9% next year, which is below the target of 2.0%. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%. The monetary authorities are under pressure from the domestic political situation: the October 27 elections to the lower house of parliament led to the loss of the majority by the ruling coalition, which forces it to seek new partners or form a minority government.Retail sales statistics in Japan also put pressure on the yen: in September, their annual growth slowed sharply from 2.8% to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than preliminary forecasts of 2.3%, and on a monthly basis the indicator decreased by 2.3% after an increase of 1.0% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.50, 155.50, 156.50.Support levels: 152.50, 151.50, 150.50, 150.00.AUD/USD: inflation boosted confidence in the RBA's soft positionThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics during the Asian session on October 31, holding near the level of 0.6570, under pressure from Australian macroeconomic statistics.Retail sales in September fell sharply from 0.7% to 0.1% with a forecast 0.3%, and in the third quarter the indicator increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% after falling by 3.9% a month earlier, and year-on-year growth accelerated from 3.6% to 6.8%. Additionally, Chinese statistics attracted investors' attention: the index of business activity in the service sector in October rose from 50.0 to 50.2 points, which fell short of expectations of 50.4 points, and the manufacturing index from the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Supply increased from 49.8 to 50.1 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.0 points.On the eve of the Australian inflation data put pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The consumer price index in September decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%, and in the quarter — from 1.0% to 0.2%, with an expected 0.3%. The figures reached a three-year low amid electricity subsidies and lower gasoline prices, but price growth in the service sector remains high, forcing the RBA to maintain a "hawkish" position in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6675.Support levels: 0.6536, 0.6500, 0.6456, 0.6420.Gold Market analysisAs of October 31, 2024, the price of gold is $2,786.44 per ounce, which is 0.21% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals in the context of global economic and geopolitical challenges.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of the gold market. The Fed maintains a restrained position on interest rates, given the stabilizing inflation, which remains near the target level of 2%. However, higher Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are supporting interest in American assets. Despite this, gold retains its position due to uncertainty in the global economy and expectations of possible adjustments to the Fed's policy. US GDP figures for the third quarter exceeded forecasts, showing growth of 2.4%, which added confidence in the stability of the economy and the continuation of current policies. Also at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States is expected to be published, which serves as a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Analysts predict that the indicator in September will remain at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis, which will confirm the stability of current inflation. This event may put pressure on the gold exchange rate, as confirmation of stable inflation may deter the Fed from easing policy. At 16:00 (GMT+2), data on the ISM manufacturing activity index for October will be presented. The indicator is expected to decrease to 49.5 points from the previous level of 50.0, which indicates a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. A decrease in the index may support gold quotes, as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the United States.Resistance levels: $2,800 and $2,820.Support levels: $2,775 and ...

The Turkish lira continues to rewrite historical lows. Over the past year, it has weakened by 110% against the dollar, which has earned the status of one of the worst investments in the world. We understand the reasons for such a rapid decline and the risks for the global financial system.Hawks vs. PigeonsBack in March 2021, the then head of the Central Bank of Turkey, Naji Agbal, raised the key rate from 17 to 19%. The reason for the tight monetary policy is high inflation, which by that time had reached almost 16%. The high rate was planned to be kept until the price increase was stopped.Agbala's "hawkish" rhetoric was not to the taste of the country's president Erdogan, who believes that the rigid PREP, on the contrary, only accelerates inflation. As a result, the chair of the head of the Central Bank was occupied by Sahap Kavcioglu, who supports the opinion of the national leader.Since September, a gradual reduction in the key rate has begun: from 19 to 14%. The last decline occurred on December 16, it served as another trigger for the weakening of the Turkish lira. In November, official inflation exceeded 20%, and the Central Bank failed to slow down the fall of the national currency, even thanks to the active sale of dollars.What are the forecasts?The depreciation of the Turkish lira has a negative impact primarily on the financial situation of the Turkish population. In real terms, the key rate is, in fact, negative, which only accelerates the growth of consumer prices.There are no prerequisites that the situation will change in the foreseeable future. Erdogan and his supporters continue to believe that there is no alternative to an investment-oriented policy.S&P rating agency has changed its outlook for Turkey from stable to negative. The national debt is growing, gold and foreign exchange reserves are shrinking, and the Central Bank of the country continues to lower the key rate against the background of increased inflation.A full-scale crisis in Turkey is capable of provoking a wave of sales in emerging markets, to which Russia belongs. We could observe a kind of rehearsal of the withdrawal of international investors from global asset risks on Monday, December ...