EUR/GBP: the ECB has left monetary policy unchanged
The EUR/GBP currency pair is in a downtrend, hovering around the 0.8530 level and heading towards the end of the trading week with a noticeable drop, reaching lows from August 23 to the previous day.
The euro is under pressure after the latest decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB), which left the key interest rate at 4.50%, the deposit rate at 4.00% and the margin rate at 4.75%. Officials pointed to a slowdown in economic growth in the region and continued risks to financial stability, despite some positive developments in inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the discussion on reducing the cost of borrowing is still premature. Investors' attention was also directed to recent data on business optimism in Germany from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO), where the indicator fell from 86.3 to 85.2 points, which is lower than the expected 86.7 points, and the index of economic expectations decreased from 84.2 to 83.5 points against the forecast of 84.8 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.8552, 0.8582, 0.8611, 0.8632.
- Support levels: 0.8519, 0.8500, 0.8479, 0.8450.
USD/CHF: US GDP grew by 3.3% in Q4
During the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF pair shows fluctuating movements, stabilizing around the 0.8670 mark in anticipation of data on personal consumption expenditures, which are important for measuring inflation. There is also caution among traders ahead of the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve System scheduled for January 30-31, which limits the activity of opening new positions.
The US dollar is strengthening thanks to the latest US GDP report: in the fourth quarter, GDP growth was 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.0% and the previous 4.9%, reducing fears of a recession and increasing investors' hopes for an early reduction in interest rates by the Fed. The dollar is also supported by data from the real estate market, where sales of new homes increased by 8.0% in December after a decrease of 9.0% earlier, reaching 0.664 million in absolute figures against the expected 0.645 million. At the same time, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 214.0 thousand, which is less than expectations of 200.0 thousand, but more than the previous level of 189.0 thousand, and the total number of people receiving state support increased from 1.806 million to 1.833 million, exceeding forecasts of 1.828 million.
- Resistance levels: 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8760, 0.8800.
- Support levels: 0.8665, 0.8630, 0.8600, 0.8553.
USD/JPY: the US dollar is strengthening after yesterday's bullish signal
The USD/JPY currency pair is showing a moderate rise, continuing to develop the bullish trend formed yesterday and trying to overcome the level of 147.75, against the background of an assessment of the latest economic data from Japan.
In January, there was a slowdown in the consumer price index in Tokyo from 2.4% to 1.6%, and the index excluding food and energy from 3.5% to 3.1%. Such a decrease in inflationary pressure can confirm the continuation of the Bank of Japan's soft monetary policy. Contrary to expectations of a possible rejection of negative interest rates, the probability of an increase in the cost of borrowing is decreasing following the consumer price index.
The latest monthly economic report of the Japanese government described the effects of the recent severe earthquake on the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture and formulated short-term forecasts for exports, production and consumption. The authorities stressed the need for special attention to the consequences of the natural disaster: although Ishikawa Prefecture, the most affected, contributes only 0.8% to Japan's GDP, it is the location of key equipment and semiconductor manufacturing enterprises that have not yet resumed their work.
- Resistance levels: 148.00, 148.79, 149.50, 150.00.
- Support levels: 147.49, 146.65, 146.00, 145.00.
AUD/USD: a strengthening of the downtrend is expected
Against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is held in a narrow range at 0.6591 and is preparing to continue its downward movement. An additional impetus for this may appear today due to the closure of trading platforms in Australia in connection with the celebration of Australia Day.
The Australian dollar is supported by the latest data from the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which rose from 47.6 to 50.3 points, and in the service sector, which increased from 47.1 to 47.9 points. Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published a bulletin reflecting business expectations of a slowdown in consumer price growth in the next six months, although their level still exceeds the regulator's target range of 2.0–3.0%. Companies point to the need to increase prices for products and services in response to rising costs in supply chains.
- Resistance levels: 0.6610, 0.6680.
- Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6460.