Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/NZD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD and Silver on Friday, November 8, 2024

EUR/USD: euro strengthens to new highs before the US electionsThe EUR/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from the "bearish" trend of last Friday. The tool is testing new local highs reached on October 15, in anticipation of fresh drivers for movement.On Monday, the EU will publish macroeconomic statistics for October on business activity from S&P Global. It is expected that the indicators will remain at the level of last month: the index of manufacturing activity in Germany will be 42.6 points, and for the eurozone as a whole — 45.9 points. Representatives of the German Federal Bank and the European Central Bank (ECB) are also scheduled to speak during the day, which may affect the prospects for changes in the monetary policy of the region. According to a study by Ernst & Young Global Ltd., 45.0% of German industrial companies plan to expand abroad, while only 13.0% intend to maintain operations in the country. At the same time, 29.0% of companies are considering moving their headquarters outside Germany, while only 4.0% prefer to manage their business from the inside. Two thirds of the managers surveyed predict job cuts in the coming years.American investors are focused on the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for November 5th. The position of Republican candidate Donald Trump was strengthened by a weak report on the labor market, which is often used as an argument in favor of the current Joe Biden administration. In October, the US economy created only 12.0 thousand new jobs outside agriculture, with an expected 113.0 thousand, whereas in September the increase was 223.0 thousand. The average hourly wage increased from 3.9% to 4.0% and from 0.3% to 0.4%, indicating continued moderate inflation risks. Despite the initial decline in the dollar, it subsequently managed to recover, as such low figures were explained by the consequences of two major hurricanes and protests by employees of The Boeing Co.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0950, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800, 1.0765.GBP/USD: pair holds positions at local highsThe GBP/USD pair shows moderate growth, consolidating at the level of 1.2990 and the recent highs of October 31. Market activity remains low, as investors prefer to refrain from opening new positions before the US presidential elections, which will be held on November 5. The current dollar quotes include the probability of a victory for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, which may lead to a tightening of tariff policy and a slower reduction in interest rates by the Fed.The October labor market report released on Friday had only a short-term impact, as markets no longer associate current economic data with a future administration. The US economy has created only 12,000 new jobs outside agriculture, which was the lowest result during Joe Biden's presidency. In September, this figure was 223 thousand, and in October, an increase to 113 thousand was predicted. The average hourly wage increased from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 3.9% to 4.0% on an annual basis. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Investors also noted a decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM to 46.5 points with a forecast of 47.6 points, after the previous value of 47.2.On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold the last monetary policy meeting of the year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast a rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.75%, despite the recently presented draft budget from Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, which caused a contradictory reaction among investors. The budget assumes a significant tax increase to ensure revenue in the amount of 40 billion pounds. In particular, it is planned to increase companies' contributions to the National Insurance Fund (NI) to 15% and increase the capital gains rate (CGT) from 10% to 18% for low-income taxpayers and from 20% to 24% for high incomes. These changes can create pressure on the business, reducing its profitability, which worries investors who refuse to invest in the pound. The Bank of England has also raised its forecasts for GDP growth for the current and next years and expects the consumer price index to rise from 2.5% to 2.6% by 2025.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CHF: mixed trading in the Asian sessionIn the morning, the USD/CHF pair shows a moderate decline, remaining near the 0.8650 level, amid a decrease in market activity before the announcement of the results of the US presidential election.The victory of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, may lead to a revision of monetary policy against the background of a new tariff strategy and a reduction in geopolitical tensions due to a more restrained foreign policy approach, which will potentially support the US dollar. The Fed is scheduled to meet on Thursday, and analysts expect a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.75%. Traders will pay special attention to the comments of the Fed representatives after the meeting in order to understand the prospects for another rate change this year.In Switzerland, the consumer price index in October decreased from 0.8% to 0.6% in annual terms, while on a monthly basis the indicator rose from -0.3% to -0.1%, while analysts predicted zero values in both cases. In addition, retail sales in September adjusted from 2.7% to 2.2%, which was lower than the expected 2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.8669, 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8776.Support levels: 0.8631, 0.8600, 0.8570, 0.8541.NZD/USD: reduced trading volatilityThe NZD/USD pair is correcting near the level of 0.6006 against the background of a weakening US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics on the New Zealand real estate market.In September, the number of approved applications for the construction of new homes increased from -5.2% to 2.6% on a monthly basis, although since the beginning of the year it has amounted to 33,677 thousand, which is 17.0% less than in the previous period. In the third quarter, the number of applications increased from -2.8% to 6.2%, but the indicator for non-residential facilities in September showed a decrease of -9.1 billion New Zealand dollars, which corresponds to a drop of 6.4% year-on-year and indicates the weakness of this sector.The US dollar in the Asian session fell to the level of 103.50 in USDX amid lower volatility and expectations of the results of the US presidential election and the Fed's decision on monetary policy, which will be announced on Thursday. The chances of winning candidates from both parties are estimated to be approximately equal, so investors are following cautious tactics before the announcement of the election results. According to the FedWatch Tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 99.0%, and this scenario has already been taken into account in the quotes.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5980, 0.5880.

EUR/USD: Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4%, supporting the euroAs of November 1, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading at 1.0767, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Annual inflation in October was 2.0%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained at 2.7%, which exceeds the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). GDP for the third quarter grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, exceeding growth forecasts of 0.2%, indicating some recovery in economic activity. The unemployment rate in the region has stabilized at 6.3%. Despite these data, the ECB decided at its meeting on October 30 to leave the key rate at 3.75%, citing the need for further analysis of economic conditions before changing monetary policy. Retail sales data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2), where a decrease of 0.2% is forecast; this may put pressure on the euro in case of confirmation or deterioration of indicators.In the United States, the economic situation is showing resilience. Data on the number of jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls) is expected to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). The forecast is 113,000, which supports expectations of stability in the labor market. If the data turns out to be higher than forecasts, this may strengthen the dollar's position and lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD pair. The business activity index (PMI) for October showed an increase to 51.5 points, which is higher than the previous 50.8 and confirms the expansion of production activity. On October 31, the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, arguing that maintaining economic growth and inflation control. At 14:00 (GMT+2), data on the business activity index (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector will also be published, a decrease to 49.5 points is expected, which may affect the dollar if it deviates from the forecast.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.GBP/USD: falling retail sales and weak PMI put pressure on the poundAs of November 1, 2024, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2980, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The UK continues to face economic challenges. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 in October, indicating a decrease in activity in the sector. The consumer confidence index also fell to 95.0, reflecting public concern about the economic situation. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.2% in quarterly terms, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year in September, which is higher than the target level of the Bank of England. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month. The producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating an increase in costs for manufacturers. The business confidence index dropped to 98.0, reflecting the pessimistic mood among entrepreneurs. The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) decreased by 0.3% in September, which may indicate a slowdown in economic activity in the coming months. Retail sales in September decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in consumer activity. The balance of foreign trade showed a deficit of 5.2 billion pounds, indicating an excess of imports over exports. At the last meeting, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, noting the need for further monitoring of inflation risks. The head of the Bank of England announced his readiness to take additional measures in case of deterioration of the economic situation.Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.USD/CAD: trade surplus supports CAD amid volatilityAs of November 1, 2024, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading at 1.3933, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session.The economic and political situation in Canada demonstrates diverse trends that are reflected in the dynamics of the Canadian dollar. In the third quarter of 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, which is higher than in the second quarter, but below the expectations of analysts, who predicted growth of 0.5%. The main drivers of growth were the financial and insurance sectors, which showed an increase of 0.5%, and the services sector, including transport, where growth was 0.3%. However, the downturn in the manufacturing sector, where the business activity index (PMI) fell to 49.1, indicates problems in industry, affecting export dynamics and affecting domestic economic prospects.The situation with foreign trade remains positive. The trade surplus in the last reporting period amounted to 1.2 billion Canadian dollars due to high demand for energy resources and agricultural goods. However, volatility in global oil and gas prices may pose a risk to the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the CAD exchange rate, as a significant portion of the country's income depends on these export sectors. Investors will be closely watching upcoming publications on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI), which may have an impact on the prospects for the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3946, 1.4075.Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3750.Silver market analysisAs of November 1, 2024, silver is trading at $33.66 per troy ounce, which is 0.27% lower compared to the previous session.Important economic events affecting the price of silver are observed in silver-producing countries. In Mexico, the largest producer of silver, GDP grew by 0.5% in quarterly terms in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations of 0.7% growth. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in October compared to September, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The central bank of Mexico has left its key interest rate at 11.25% to control inflation. In Peru, the second largest producer, industrial production decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in September 2024 due to the downturn in the mining sector. The business confidence index fell to 45 points, which demonstrates a pessimistic mood.Among the silver-consuming countries, the United States and China play a key role. In the United States, GDP for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with analysts' expectations. However, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98 points in October, reflecting concerns about future economic conditions. The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%, while continuing to monitor inflation. In China, GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the second quarter. The PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a reduction in activity. The Chinese government has announced plans to increase government spending on infrastructure to boost the economy.Resistance levels: 34.50, 35.00.Support levels: 33.00, 32.50.

USD/TRY: Turkey's inflation decline below 10% is expected by the end of 2026During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair demonstrates a multidirectional movement, consolidating at 34.2700 against the background of US macroeconomics data, while market activity remains weak.The October report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment showed an increase from 159.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 115.0 thousand. However, US GDP for the third quarter decreased from 3.0% to 2.8%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. If negative trends continue, the US Federal Reserve may continue to ease monetary policy after a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The actions of the regulator will be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential elections on November 5: if the representative of the Republican Party Donald Trump wins, the US tariff policy may change, which will require a stronger national currency. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), a report on the labor market for October is expected to be published: it is predicted that the number of new jobs outside agriculture will decrease from 254.0 thousand to 111.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage growth will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention will be focused on the September personal consumption expenditure index: the base indicator may slow down from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms and accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3% on a monthly basis.The lira is under pressure due to the unstable economic situation inside the country, although there are signs of optimism. The media reports that the Central Bank of Turkey plans to reduce the interest rate in December from 50.00% to 48.25%, after the regulator left it at the same level for the seventh time in a row on October 17. Annual inflation fell from 51.97% to 49.38% in September, breaking the 50.0% mark for the first time in more than a year. Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that due to strict fiscal and monetary policy, inflation could fall to 10.00% by the end of 2026. He also noted that the Central Bank's reserves have increased by $ 100.0 billion over the past year and a half, and the level of public debt to GDP is 26.0%, which gives Turkey an advantage in terms of economic development.Resistance levels: 34.3096, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/JPY: the interest rate of the Bank of Japan remained 0.25%The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs on July 31, reached at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 152.90 for a breakdown downwards, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market.Today, investors are focused on the results of the Bank of Japan meeting: the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, which coincided with expectations. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the bank, has noted in recent months that any changes will depend on the fulfillment of forecasts for inflation and economic growth, as well as on external factors. Some analysts believe that the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, may increase concern among investors and affect the Japanese market. In the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, the bank forecasts the consumer price index to remain at 2.5%, with a possible decrease to 1.9% next year, which is below the target of 2.0%. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%. The monetary authorities are under pressure from the domestic political situation: the October 27 elections to the lower house of parliament led to the loss of the majority by the ruling coalition, which forces it to seek new partners or form a minority government.Retail sales statistics in Japan also put pressure on the yen: in September, their annual growth slowed sharply from 2.8% to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than preliminary forecasts of 2.3%, and on a monthly basis the indicator decreased by 2.3% after an increase of 1.0% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.50, 155.50, 156.50.Support levels: 152.50, 151.50, 150.50, 150.00.AUD/USD: inflation boosted confidence in the RBA's soft positionThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics during the Asian session on October 31, holding near the level of 0.6570, under pressure from Australian macroeconomic statistics.Retail sales in September fell sharply from 0.7% to 0.1% with a forecast 0.3%, and in the third quarter the indicator increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% after falling by 3.9% a month earlier, and year-on-year growth accelerated from 3.6% to 6.8%. Additionally, Chinese statistics attracted investors' attention: the index of business activity in the service sector in October rose from 50.0 to 50.2 points, which fell short of expectations of 50.4 points, and the manufacturing index from the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Supply increased from 49.8 to 50.1 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.0 points.On the eve of the Australian inflation data put pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The consumer price index in September decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%, and in the quarter — from 1.0% to 0.2%, with an expected 0.3%. The figures reached a three-year low amid electricity subsidies and lower gasoline prices, but price growth in the service sector remains high, forcing the RBA to maintain a "hawkish" position in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6675.Support levels: 0.6536, 0.6500, 0.6456, 0.6420.Gold Market analysisAs of October 31, 2024, the price of gold is $2,786.44 per ounce, which is 0.21% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals in the context of global economic and geopolitical challenges.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of the gold market. The Fed maintains a restrained position on interest rates, given the stabilizing inflation, which remains near the target level of 2%. However, higher Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are supporting interest in American assets. Despite this, gold retains its position due to uncertainty in the global economy and expectations of possible adjustments to the Fed's policy. US GDP figures for the third quarter exceeded forecasts, showing growth of 2.4%, which added confidence in the stability of the economy and the continuation of current policies. Also at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States is expected to be published, which serves as a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Analysts predict that the indicator in September will remain at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis, which will confirm the stability of current inflation. This event may put pressure on the gold exchange rate, as confirmation of stable inflation may deter the Fed from easing policy. At 16:00 (GMT+2), data on the ISM manufacturing activity index for October will be presented. The indicator is expected to decrease to 49.5 points from the previous level of 50.0, which indicates a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. A decrease in the index may support gold quotes, as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the United States.Resistance levels: $2,800 and $2,820.Support levels: $2,775 and $2,750.

EUR/TRY: ECB holds rates amid slowdown in eurozone growthAs of October 29, 2024, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.94, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to the unstable economic situation in Turkey and ongoing problems with inflation.The economic situation in Turkey continues to be under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) shows that annual inflation reached 61.5% in September, well above the target level of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). In response, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to curb inflationary risks and stabilize the national currency. However, these measures have not yet had a significant effect, as inflation continues to put pressure on consumer activity, and GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the third quarter. Against this background, political uncertainty in the country also contributes to the weakening of the lira, despite CBRT's attempts to stabilize the economy through tight monetary policy.The situation in the eurozone remains less tense, but economic problems persist. The latest inflation data showed a decline to 4.3% in September, which is below forecasts, but still well above the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has signaled its readiness to keep interest rates at a high level, which supports the euro exchange rate. However, the slowdown in economic growth in key countries such as Germany and France is having a dampening effect on demand for the euro.Resistance levels: 37.14, 37.50.Support levels: 36.68, 36.30.GBP/USD: the exchange rate is stabilizing in anticipation of new factorsDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is held near the 1.2965 level. The pound is under some pressure against the background of statistics on retail price indices published by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): the annual rate accelerated from -0.6% to -0.8% in October, while -0.5% was expected. These data indirectly indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may allow the Bank of England to actively reduce interest rates.A report on consumer lending is expected to be published in the UK today at 11:30 (GMT+2). Net consumer lending is projected to decrease from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion pounds in September, and the number of approved mortgage applications will decrease from 64,858 thousand to 64,200 thousand. The downward trend in quotations is reinforced by business activity data published at the end of last week: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, falling short of the forecast of 51.4 points, the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, although 52.2 points were expected, and the composite index decreased from 52.6 to 51.7 points.The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that with the introduction of a national digital currency (CBDC) called "Britcoin", cash will remain in circulation. In July, the regulator stressed the importance of timely response to the rapid development of financial technologies and expressed readiness to use distributed ledger technology (DLT) in experiments, taking into account the possible consequences for the financial system.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada targets neutral interest rateDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair shows a slight increase, remaining near the level of 1.3900 and the peaks reached on August 5, amid lower expectations of a sharper reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate. After the rate was cut by 50 basis points in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called for caution in further easing monetary policy. As a result, the markets have almost completely revised their forecasts for the meetings in November and December, and now the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month is estimated at about 85%.Last week, the Bank of Canada cut the rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, saying that inflation is expected to be at the target level, which creates conditions for further easing of credit policy. According to forecasts, GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, while the consumer price index is projected at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. In 2026, inflation is expected to fall to 2.0%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stressed that the current measures are justified, since earlier the rate was raised quite decisively to curb inflation. He also noted the need to set the rate at a neutral level, which does not affect the economy, subject to consolidation of inflation at 2.0%. Thus, despite the continuing "dovish" rhetoric, traders have not yet received clear signals about the final values of the rates.Resistance levels: 1.3908, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3862, 1.3838, 1.3800, 1.3765.Gold market analysisAs of October 29, 2024, the price of gold is $2,747.50 per ounce, which is 0.54% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decrease is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and positive expectations in global markets related to the de-escalation of geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of gold. Investors continue to closely monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as the next meeting is approaching, where the issue of interest rates will be discussed. According to the latest data, inflation in the United States remains at 3.7%, which allows the Fed to maintain current high rates to control inflation. GDP growth data for the third quarter also turned out to be higher than expected and showed an increase of 2.4%, which supports the dollar's position. This puts pressure on gold, as the strengthening of the dollar makes precious metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies.At the international level, there is an increase in demand for gold, as the central banks of a number of countries, including China and India, continue to increase their gold reserves. However, the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East reduces demand for safe haven assets, including gold, which also makes adjustments to price dynamics. In the short term, analysts predict that a possible reduction in tensions and stable economic data from the United States may put additional pressure on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,760.00, $2,780.00.Support levels: $2,725.00, $2,700.00.

EUR/GBP: Euro holds growth by the end of the weekThe EUR/GBP pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the upward correction started this week and holding near the local highs recorded on October 17.Investors' main attention is focused on business activity data for October in the EU and the UK. In the eurozone, the index of business activity in the service sector, published by S&P Global, fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, although an increase to 51.6 points was expected. In the manufacturing sector, the indicator increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 45.1 points, while the composite index in the same sector increased slightly from 49.6 to 49.7 points, coinciding with market expectations. In the UK, the statistics turned out to be more negative: the index of business activity in industry fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, against the expected 51.4 points, and the index in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, falling short of the projected 52.2 points. The composite indicator from S&P Global/CIPS also showed a decrease from 52.6 to 51.7 points. Additionally, the British currency is under pressure from a deterioration in consumer sentiment: the Gfk Group confidence index fell from -20.0 to -21.0 points in October.Market participants continue to closely monitor the development of monetary policy in the eurozone. Traders are still expecting a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), while forecasts for changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank are changing amid the increased chances of Donald Trump winning the presidential election scheduled for November 5. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that final decisions on interest rates have not yet been made, and called for a cautious approach to possible adjustments. The head of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, on the contrary, called for a sharp rate cut of 50 basis points at the next ECB meeting on December 12.Resistance levels: 0.8350, 0.8359, 0.8370, 0.8384.Support levels: 0.8338, 0.8326, 0.8310, 0.8294.NZD/USD: RBNZ reacts to rising unemployment and lowers interest ratesOn October 25, the NZD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.5996, which is 0.33% lower compared to the previous trading session. The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken amid weak economic data and actions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The bank recently lowered its key interest rate to 4.75%, due to a slowdown in inflation to 4.9% and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. RBNZ is trying to stimulate domestic consumption and support exports, as the economy continues to show signs of slowing down.In addition, the pressure on the NZD exchange rate is exerted by the global trend in favor of the US dollar, which remains stable due to stable economic indicators in the United States. The main focus of the market is on the expected data on US GDP for the third quarter, as well as on the publication of the consumer spending index (PCE), which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed. Inflation in the United States is stable at 3.7%, which gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain the current policy of high rates.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has issued a statement on its readiness to take additional measures to support the economy if domestic demand does not recover in the coming quarters. In turn, the strengthening of the US dollar is associated with confidence that the Fed will be able to control inflationary risks in a tight monetary policy environment. Any deviations in the GDP or PCE data may lead to increased volatility in the market and a change in the dynamics of the NZD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6080.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5910.AUD/JPY: Inflation in Australia is slowing, putting pressure on AUDAs of October 25, 2024, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading at 100.64, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the background of recent statements by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and weakening economic activity in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. In the recent inflation report for the third quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.1%, which is lower than the previous 5.6%. This indicates a weakening of inflationary pressures, but the economy remains vulnerable, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adhere to a cautious monetary policy. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations. In response to these economic challenges, the RBA is not yet considering an active tightening of policy, which also puts pressure on the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation is more stable, but challenges remain. The Bank of Japan maintains an extremely soft monetary policy, despite an increase in inflation to 3.2% in annual terms. The level of business activity remains below 50 points, indicating a slowdown in the economy, but the BOJ continues to monitor bond yields in an attempt to support growth. This decision has a positive effect on the yen, increasing its competitiveness, especially against the background of the strengthening Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 101.00, 101.50.Support levels: 100.30, 99.90.Copper market analysisAs of October 25, 2024, the price of Copper is $9,367.25 per ton, which is 0.04% more than in the previous trading session. The price increase is due to continued demand amid supply uncertainty and the recovery of industrial production in key consumer countries such as China.The economic situation in China has a significant impact on the copper market. China, as the world's largest consumer of copper, continues to show signs of recovery in industrial production. The latest data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) for September showed an increase to 50.3 points, which indicates the return of activity to a positive zone. The Chinese authorities also announced support for infrastructure projects, which led to an increase in demand for copper in the construction and energy industries. Investors continue to closely monitor the government's policy on stimulating the economy, as any measures to support production could significantly increase demand for copper in the coming months.In the global context, there are also concerns about the limited supply of copper against the background of geopolitical risks and possible supply disruptions. Problems in the extractive sector in a number of countries, such as Chile and Peru, affect overall production and keep prices high. Chilean mines are facing protests and operational difficulties, which limit copper exports, while in Peru, logistics and labor problems continue to constrain supply volumes.Resistance levels: $9,450, $9,600.Support levels: $9,300, $9,150.

GBP/USD: pound continued to decline amid weak economic dataOn October 24, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at the level of 1.295, which is 0.077% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to volatility against the background of UK economic data and expectations of the Bank of England's actions.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) for September showed a slowdown in growth to 5.9% in annual terms, which is slightly lower than the August 6.4%. However, inflation still remains well above the 2% target, which poses challenges for the Bank of England. The recently published business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 47.8 points, indicating a decrease in activity in this sector. Against this background, analysts predict that the Bank of England may suspend further rate hikes to support economic growth.On the other hand, the economic situation in the United States remains stable. The main focus of the market is on the upcoming publication of data on business activity in the service sector (PMI) and consumer spending. The inflation rate remains at 3.7% in annual terms, which coincides with analysts' expectations, and the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%. This allows the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to maintain flexibility in further tightening monetary policy. The market expects that the coming data may confirm the need to maintain the current rate level.Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850.USD/CHF: the market expects further actions by the SNB against the background of a strong francOn October 24, 2024, the USD/CHF currency pair is trading at 0.8766, which is 0.36% higher compared to the previous trading session. The growth of the dollar against the Swiss franc is associated with market expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and global economic instability, which increases demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset.The Swiss franc, traditionally a safe haven currency, is demonstrating stability amid growing global uncertainty. However, challenges remain in the Swiss domestic market. The latest inflation data show that the consumer price level fell to 1.5% in annual terms in September, which is in line with the goals of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At the same time, the SNB has lowered interest rates twice this year to support exporters and producers who are suffering from the high franc exchange rate. This decision is aimed at reducing pressure on the Swiss economy, but a strong franc still has a negative impact on the competitiveness of Swiss goods in foreign markets.Economists predict that the SNB will continue to adhere to a cautious policy in the coming months. Forecasts point to possible further intervention by the SNB in the event of increased pressure on the franc, which may lead to its weakening.Resistance levels: 0.8816, 0.8862.Support levels: 0.8727, 0.8680.USD/JPY: yen falls amid expectations of a tightening of the Bank of Japan's policyOn October 24, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 152.03, which is 0.25% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation is due to new data from Japan and market expectations regarding the future actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).The economic situation in Japan remains difficult. Recent inflation data (CPI) showed an annual growth of 3.2%, above the BOJ's 2% target, forcing the Central Bank to reconsider its soft monetary policy. The Bank of Japan, headed by Governor Kazuo Ueda, continues to give signals about a possible change in the yield curve control policy (YCC), which strengthens market expectations regarding tightening measures in the coming months. This may support the yen by weakening the dollar's position.At the same time, the domestic market is also affected by weak data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI), which fell to 48.3 points, indicating a reduction in industrial activity. Experts believe that the BOJ's next steps will largely depend on inflationary trends and the stability of the labor market in Japan.Resistance levels: 152.50, 153.10.Support levels: 151.50, 150.80.Silvers market analysisAs of October 24, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is $34.21 per troy ounce, which is 1.60% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals, both against the background of ongoing inflation, and in conditions of geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar.The economic situation in the United States has a noticeable impact on the value of silver. The US Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates at a high level, which contributes to some strengthening of the dollar. However, inflation remains at 3.7%, which forces investors to seek safe haven assets such as gold and silver. Important data that may affect the dynamics of silver are the upcoming publications on the consumer price index (CPI) and data on the US labor market. At the same time, any slowdown in the growth of the US economy may increase the demand for silver as a protective asset.In addition, the ongoing global challenges in the field of energy and industrial production support silver prices, as the metal is actively used in production and "green" energy. For example, increased demand for solar panels and electronic components strengthens silver's position in the market. It should also be noted that there is a shortage of supply caused by problems in the extraction of metal in a number of countries, which also supports the growth of its value.Resistance levels: $34.50 and $35.00.Support levels: $33.80 and $33.40.

EUR/TRY: euro is under pressure after weak Eurozone GDP dataOn October 23, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.9302, which is 0.17% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to continued pressure on the euro due to weak macroeconomic data for the eurozone, as well as improvements in the Turkish economy.In Turkey, the Central Bank (CBRT) continues to adhere to strict monetary policy, which supports the lira exchange rate. In October, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to contain inflation, which reached 61.5% in September in annual terms. The bank also announced its intention to maintain high rates to stabilize the economic situation, which led to some strengthening of the lira. However, the domestic market continues to be affected by concerns about political stability and international pressure on economic policy.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. GDP data for the third quarter showed weak growth of 0.2%, which is below analysts' expectations. Inflation slowed to 4.3% in September, but core inflation remains at 4.5%, well above the ECB's target level. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a strict policy and signals readiness for further tightening if necessary. Against this background, pressure on the euro remains, as high interest rates continue to limit economic growth in key eurozone countries.Resistance levels: 37.2000, 37.5000.Support levels: 36.7500, 36.5000.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a decrease in the PMIOn October 23, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2974, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decline in the pound against the dollar is due to volatility against the background of market expectations and upcoming economic data releases in the UK and the USA.In the UK, the market's attention is focused on the upcoming publication of data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which, according to forecasts, may decrease to 48.7 points, indicating a slowdown in activity in the manufacturing sector. This is also confirmed by GDP data, which showed growth of only 0.3% in the third quarter, which is lower than analysts' expectations. Inflation remains a key factor, and the latest publication showed its slowdown to 5.9% in annual terms, which somewhat eased the pressure on the Bank of England. However, the continued rise in energy and food prices poses risks for further rate hikes in the UK, despite the slowdown in economic growth.In the US, the situation remains stable against the background of strong data on the labor market and inflation. Recent data on the consumer price index (CPI) in September showed an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, which coincided with forecasts, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%. Against this background, the Fed continues to adhere to the strategy of maintaining the current level of interest rates, which supports the dollar exchange rate. However, market participants expect new signals from the Fed representatives in the near future, which may have an impact on the further dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.AUD/USD: slowing inflation in Australia strengthens RBA's cautionOn October 23, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6677, which is 0.15% less than in the previous trading session. The depreciation of the Australian dollar is due to the deterioration of Australia's economic indicators and expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) actions.The economic situation in Australia remains tense, despite the measures taken by the government and the Central Bank. Recent inflation data showed a slowdown to 5.1% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous figure of 5.6%, but still exceeds the RBA's target of 2-3%. In response to high inflation and weak economic growth data, the RBA left the interest rate at 4.35%, adhering to a cautious approach to further raising it. At the same time, the labor market is showing a weakening, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 3.7%.Economists' forecasts and comments from RBA representatives confirm the bank's cautious position aimed at maintaining stability amid global economic turmoil and falling commodity prices. The focus is on the upcoming RBA meeting and the publication of the quarterly inflation report, which may affect further rate decisions.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6730.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6620.USDX: US Dollar Index is stable at 103.47 amid expectations of US PMI dataAs of October 23, the USDX (DXY) index is trading at 103.47, almost unchanged from the previous trading session. This indicates a general stabilization of the dollar, which is associated with expectations of important publications in the United States and the stability of economic data.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. The latest data show that inflation remains stable at 3.7% year-on-year, which coincides with analysts' forecasts. However, market participants continue to monitor the Fed's actions, as the next meeting will be decisive for further decisions on interest rates. In a stable labor market, where the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%, the Fed retains the possibility of tightening monetary policy if necessary. Today, attention is focused on the upcoming data on business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may affect the dollar exchange rate if the actual values deviate significantly from expectations.Economists expect that the growth of the American economy will continue to remain strong, which supports the current position of the dollar in international markets. However, according to forecasts, in November and December, the USDX index may adjust to levels around 103.1 and 101.7, respectively, which indicates possible volatility depending on the publication of data and the actions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 104.00, 104.30.Support levels: 103.00, 102.70.

EUR/USD: euro is gaining ground, exiting the local decline zoneThe EUR/USD pair shows an uncertain movement, consolidating near the level of 1.0860. At the beginning of the week, market activity remains low, as there are almost no macroeconomic publications, and investors are focused on discussing possible changes in US monetary policy in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming elections. Market participants expect that the policy of high interest rates may be continued, and trade tensions between the United States and the Eurozone may escalate again. This may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to take measures to keep the euro low in order to preserve the region's competitive advantages.At the same time, the ECB is expected to gradually lower interest rates regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election. Last week, the European regulator reduced the rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.40%, due to a slowdown in economic growth. In September, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone decreased from 1.8% to 1.7%, while the monthly indicator remained at -0.1%, as in the previous month. The main inflation indicator also remained at 2.7% per annum and 0.1% per month.Resistance levels: 1.0871, 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0844, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765.GBP/USD: pound is waiting for new impulses amid uncertaintyThe GBP/USD pair shows weak activity, holding near the 1.3040 level: the bulls maintain the upward trend that formed at the end of the previous week, but are waiting for new factors that can stimulate movement this week. Last Friday, the pound was supported by published retail sales data for September: the indicator accelerated from 2.3% to 3.9% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, sales decreased from 1.0% to 0.3%, which was higher than the expected -0.3%. Sales excluding fuel also increased from 2.2% to 4.0%, ahead of the 3.2% forecast.At the beginning of the week, fresh data on housing prices from Rightmove Group Ltd put pressure on the pound. In October, the index slowed from 1.2% to 1.0% in annual terms, and from 0.8% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, which reduces inflation expectations.Representatives of the Bank of England, including its head Andrew Bailey, are expected to speak tomorrow. It is predicted that officials may support further rate cuts, given the slowdown in inflation and the softening of the policy of competitors — the Fed and the ECB.Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200.Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860.USD/CHF: US dollar weakness persistsDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair remains in a state of consolidation, holding at 0.8648. The reason for this is the weak activity in the market, as traders are waiting for the appearance of fresh catalysts.On Tuesday, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the October index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond will be released, and representative of the Federal Open Market Committee Patrick Harker will also speak. According to expectations, Harker may express support for further reduction of the key interest rate. However, the impact of these statements on the exchange rate will be limited, as data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 85% probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points at the Fed's November meeting. The upcoming US presidential election remains a more significant factor, which increases market uncertainty. If Donald Trump wins, analysts predict a tightening of rhetoric in monetary policy and a possible strengthening of trade restrictions.Meanwhile, in Switzerland, September data showed an increase in exports from 20.65 billion to 22.53 billion francs, as well as an increase in imports from 15.90 billion to 17.58 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus increased to 4.95 billion francs from the previous value of 4.74 billion francs.Resistance levels: 0.8669, 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8776.Support levels: 0.8641, 0.8600, 0.8570, 0.8541.Gold Market analysisAs of October 21, gold is showing growth, trading around $2.657 per ounce, which is 0.91% more than in the previous session. Investors are showing interest in gold amid the current global uncertainty and increasing demand for protective assets. The positive dynamics is supported by the weakening of the US dollar, as well as increased geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States remains difficult, which has an impact on the gold market. Recent data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed a decrease from 1.9 to -4.6 points, which increased expectations of further changes in the Fed's monetary policy. In addition, according to the instruments of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of the Fed's interest rate adjustment at the upcoming meeting is estimated at more than 85%.In Europe, despite the slowdown in inflation to 1.7% in annual terms, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to hold interest rates at 3.40%, which adds pressure on the euro and supports demand for gold as an alternative asset.Resistance levels: 2670, 2685.Support levels: 2645, 2630.