Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD for Monday, January 27

EUR/USD: investors are watching the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the ECBThe euro is showing moderate growth in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting after a sharp drop the day before: the asset is testing the 1.0440 mark for an upward breakout, while traders expect new triggers for market movements and details about the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. The US currency continues to receive support after recent statements by the head of the White House about the possible imposition of tariffs on imports of semiconductors, pharmaceutical products and steel in order to stimulate domestic production. Recall that from February 1, 25.0% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico will come into force, but the fate of similar measures against the EU and China remains uncertain.The US macroeconomic statistics published the day before turned out to be contradictory: orders for durable goods in December fell by 2.2% after falling by 2.0% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.8%, and the indicator excluding the transport sector added 0.3% after a decrease of 0.2% in November with a forecast of 0.4%.. The Richmond Federal Reserve's industrial business activity index rose from -10.0 to -4.0 points in January, beating forecasts of -8.0 points.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by the results of an ECB survey, according to which in the fourth quarter of 2024, eurozone financial institutions tightened lending conditions for businesses, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming months. Analysts note that borrowing volumes are declining amid weak domestic demand, slowing exports and government spending cuts. The most stringent credit conditions are recorded in commercial real estate, trade, the construction sector and energy-intensive industries.Resistance levels: 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253.AUD/USD: inflation in Australia accelerated to 2.5%The Australian dollar is showing weakness in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, continuing its downward movement in the short term. Quotes are trying to break through the 0.6235 level, and traders are evaluating the latest inflation data in the country.According to published statistics, in December, the consumer price index rose to 2.5% yoy from 2.3% previously, but remained at 0.2% in quarterly terms, contrary to expectations of growth to 0.3%. At the same time, the overall figure for the year decreased from 2.8% to 2.4%, falling short of the projected 2.5%. Core inflation, calculated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) using the truncated average method, also weakened – from 3.6% to 3.2% yoy with a forecast of 3.3% and from 0.8% to 0.5% for the quarter instead of the expected 0.6%. The continued slowdown in inflationary pressure strengthens the arguments in favor of the RBA's soft monetary policy, which puts pressure on the national currency. An additional negative factor for the Australian dollar was the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index, which dropped to -2.0 points in December after -3.0 points in November, remaining significantly below the average over the past two years.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6274, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6225, 0.6200, 0.6178, 0.6155.Silver market analysisAfter a prolonged hold below the key level of 30.00 in the second half of the month, silver (XAG/USD) quotes strengthened to 30.40, demonstrating a confident potential for further growth.Market participants are closely following Donald Trump's first steps as president of the United States, especially his plans to impose new duties on imports of raw materials from China, Mexico and Canada. If the tariffs are approved on February 1, it will limit the supply of 62.0% of imported silver to the American market, which could trigger price increases. Additional pressure on the stock sector was exerted by the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) model DeepSeek, which, according to the developers, is not inferior to ChatGPT, but uses cheaper processors and less data. In just a few days after launch, the app became the most popular in the American App Store, which led to a drop in the quotes of technology giants and an increase in demand for protective assets. In conditions of high market uncertainty, silver remains the most attractive of the liquid metals, significantly inferior in value to gold, platinum and palladium, which makes it a promising investment in the current macroeconomic environment.Resistance levels: 30.80, 32.50.Support levels: 29.90, 28.30.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the morning session, WTI Crude Oil showed a slight decrease, trading around 73.20, after a steady rise the day before. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar caused by Donald Trump's new statements, black gold quotes continued their upward trend. The head of the White House again outlined a tough course on tariff policy, expressing his intention to limit imports of strategically important goods, including computer chips, pharmaceutical products and steel, in order to stimulate domestic production. As early as February 1, 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico are likely to come into force, which will become part of a strategy to combat illegal migration, but the fate of trade restrictions against the EU and China remains uncertain.An additional factor for the oil market was the risks of disruptions in the supply of raw materials from Libya. According to Bloomberg, the shutdown of the key export terminals Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, through which more than 400.0 thousand barrels pass daily, could reduce the country's exports by a third. If the situation worsens further, Libya risks completely suspending production, which will lead to a loss of 1.4 million barrels per day. Regional conflicts between the internationally recognized government in the west of the country and the eastern authorities, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, continue to destabilize the oil sector. On January 5, representatives of the Oil Crescent movement threatened to block production and exports if the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) did not relocate the headquarters of five energy companies to the eastern region, where the main production facilities and terminals are located.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.00, 70.00.

EUR/USD: the initiative has moved to the European currencyThe EUR/USD pair is moving within the corrective trend, trading at 1.0419. The European currency is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive data on the German economy.In December, the producer price index in Germany decreased from 0.5% to -0.1% month–on-month, and amounted to 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the projected 1.1% and the target range of 0.5-1.5%, which allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy. The January index of current economic conditions from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) improved from -93.1 to -90.4 points, although the indicator of economic sentiment decreased from 15.7 to 10.3 points, remaining above the September low of 3.6 points. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that subdued consumer demand and weak activity in the construction industry remain the main factors of the slowdown in the German economy. The head of the Central Bank of Croatia, Boris Vujicic, added that investors' expectations of a fourfold reduction in ECB rates look justified.The pair's movement is also influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar, which is being adjusted against the background of Donald Trump's inauguration as president and his first steps in economic policy. The USDX index dropped to 107.80 as the market was disappointed by the slow fulfillment of election promises. In particular, instead of the announced increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 40.0% from the first day of the presidency, only 10.0% are being discussed, which will take effect in two weeks.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0390, 1.0220.GBP/USD: market focus on employment data for November in BritainThe pound stabilized near the level of 1.2345, being near the local highs of January 9th. The GBP/USD pair maintained its upward momentum despite the publication of mixed data on the UK labor market.In December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.7 thousand after a decrease of 25.1 thousand in November, while analysts expected an increase of 10.3 thousand. The employment rate rose by 35.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the previous increase of 173.0 thousand. According to November data from the Office of National Statistics, the annual increase in regular wages for the three-month period was 5.6%, exceeding the figure of the previous period (5.2%). The overall dynamics, including premiums, also accelerated to 5.6% from 5.2%. These data indicate continued price pressures in the economy. However, analysts expect the Bank of England to cut the rate again in February, although the pace of its reduction is likely to slow down. According to the OECD forecasts, the rate could reach 3.50% by 2026. Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, noted that the regulator plans four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, which will bring it to the level of 3.75%.On Friday, January 24, the GfK Group consumer confidence index and business activity data from S&P Global for January are expected to be published. Forecasts suggest a decrease in the confidence index from -17.0 to -18.0 points. The indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector may slightly increase from 47.0 to 47.1 points, while in the service sector it is expected to decrease from 51.1 to 50.6 points. In the United States, similar data may show a slight decrease in the index of business activity in the service sector from 56.8 to 56.6 points, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen from 49.4 to 49.6 points.Resistance levels: 1.2359, 1.2400, 1.2450, 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2300, 1.2261, 1.2230, 1.2200.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing steady growth, trading near the 30.81 mark. Investors are carefully assessing the first steps of Donald Trump as president of the United States, which may significantly affect the silver market.One of the key points of his election program was the introduction of high import duties on goods from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries that are the main exporters of silver ore to the United States. Currently, about 21.0% of the silver consumed in the country is mined in the United States, while 44.0% comes from Mexico and 18.0% from Canada. The proposed duties, which can reach 25.0%, will affect up to 62.0% of imports and, according to preliminary data, will enter into force on February 1. Against this background, large commodity traders are beginning to reserve metal shipments for the future. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., since the beginning of the year, borrowing rates on gold and silver contracts have increased sevenfold, and silver reserves in Comex vaults have increased by 22.0 million ounces. The growing demand has also affected the prices of investment silver. According to the U.S. Mint, the value of the Maple Leaf coin may rise from $36.0 to $45.0 by the end of the month amid an increase in the number of orders.Resistance levels: 31.30, 33.00.Support levels: 30.30, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices showed a slight decrease in the morning session, trading around the 75.50 mark and remaining near the local lows recorded on January 10. Quotes continue the downward trend that began in the middle of last week, when they briefly approached the level of 80.00 and updated the highs of July 19.The market is under pressure from concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States. In the first hours after the inauguration, Trump announced major changes in the country's energy policy. In particular, he lifted restrictions on the development of deposits in coastal areas imposed by the previous administration of Joe Biden, and called for an increase in production at existing fields. In addition, the president signed a declaration on the emergency situation in the energy sector, which is aimed at attracting investments in resource extraction and increasing strategic oil reserves in the United States.Additional pressure on the price of oil is exerted by information from the Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation (KPC) about the new large Al-Jley'a field located offshore the Persian Gulf. According to preliminary data, the field's reserves may reach 800 million barrels of oil and natural gas, which increases concerns about an oversaturation of the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.33.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, 72.17.

USD/CHF: the pair is trading near the minimum valuesDuring the morning session, the USD/CHF pair is showing recovery after a sharp drop the day before, testing the 0.9075 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is trying to move away from the lows recorded on January 7.The increased volatility in the market is due to the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In his first statements, he confirmed his intention to fulfill a number of election promises, including measures to combat illegal immigration, reduce taxes and protect the interests of national producers. Trump also noted the possibility of imposing high import duties. It was previously announced that tariffs on imports of goods would increase by 10-20%, and for products from China — up to 100%. However, analysts assume that the adjustment will only apply to strategically important goods in order to minimize the risks of inflation and maintain a dovish monetary policy.Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum in Davos has started in Switzerland, where world leaders are discussing the prospects for economic recovery, the introduction of advanced technologies and strengthening social and financial stability. Particular attention is being paid to monetary policy issues, especially in the context of a possible slowdown in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025.Resistance levels: 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9153.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8957, 0.8929.AUD/USD: Australian employment sector registers growthThe AUD/USD pair is correcting within the framework of the uptrend, trading near the level of 0.6247. The weakening of the US dollar supports the instrument, while the position of the Australian currency remains stable, despite the publication of data on the labor market.According to a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in December, the unemployment rate remained at 4.0%, and the number of unemployed decreased by 4.0 thousand, reaching 604.9 thousand. The employment rate increased by 31.0 thousand, amounting to 14.573 million, which is 2.8% higher than in the same period of 2023. The employment-to-population ratio remained at 64.4%, but full-time employment decreased by 23.7 thousand to 10.037 million, while part-time employment increased by 80.0 thousand, reaching 4.546 million. The total number of hours worked per month increased by 0.2% or 4.0 million. Despite the high interest rates, the Australian labor market is showing a gradual recovery and stable dynamics.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6210, 0.6080.NZD/USD: December retail statistics supported the NZD rateThe NZD/USD pair is showing a correction near the 0.5654 mark, retreating from the annual low of 0.5540. The weakening of the US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand support the New Zealand currency.According to the data, in December, sales of electronic cards increased by 2.0% or 130 million New Zealand dollars. In the main retail sectors, growth was 1.8% or 103 million New Zealand dollars. The largest increases were in the categories of fuel (+3.8% or 19 million New Zealand dollars), durable goods (+3.7% or 57 million), clothing and footwear (+3.1% or 10 million), consumables (+1.4% or 36 million) and hospitality (+1.0% or 12 million). At the same time, the most noticeable decrease was recorded in the segment of motor vehicles (-1.3% or -2.4 million New Zealand dollars).Resistance levels: 0.5700, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5620, 0.5540.USD/CAD: Trump launches service to regulate duties and revenuesThe US dollar showed steady growth against the Canadian currency during the morning session on January 21, partially recovering from a sharp decline the day before. The USD/CAD pair is testing the 1.4420 mark, while during the day it managed to update the highs recorded in March 2020. Increased volatility in the market is associated with the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In his speech, the politician made a number of statements about key areas of domestic and foreign policy. Although he refrained from immediately imposing large-scale import duties, Trump announced the creation of a new External Revenue Service that will work out tariff changes in detail. The administration is likely to focus on targeted increases in duties, for example, on imports of electric vehicles, which are considered critically important.At the same time, Canadian companies are cautiously optimistic, expecting an increase in demand for products due to lower borrowing costs. However, Donald Trump's plans to increase import duties are causing concern among the management of enterprises. The indicator of business prospects in economic conditions rose to -1.18 points, which is the best result in the last five quarters, although it is still below the average level. According to a December online survey by the Bank of Canada, only 15% of companies forecast a recession next year, down from 16% in the third quarter. At the same time, 40% of respondents expressed concern about the impact of the US foreign policy strategy, which highlights the high degree of uncertainty in relations between the two countries.Resistance levels: 1.4435, 1.4466, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.

NZD/USD: market is waiting for New Zealand inflation data for Q4The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, once again testing the 0.5600 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is supported by technical factors, while trading activity in the US markets is reduced due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Investors are closely watching the inauguration of Donald Trump, waiting for his first decisions as president. The Republican administration previously announced its intention to significantly increase import duties, especially on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which could provoke retaliatory measures and negatively affect global trade. At the same time, the attention of American market participants is focused on the preliminary December data on the construction sector. Despite a decrease in the number of building permits by 0.7% to 1.483 million and a decrease in the volume of new homes by 15.8% to 1.499 million, the overall picture remains positive, which reduces the likelihood of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.The New Zealand dollar continues to receive support due to positive statistics from China published last week. In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year against the previous 4.6%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased from 1.3% to 1.6%, fully in line with forecasts. The December data also turned out to be optimistic: industrial production increased from 5.4% to 6.2%, and retail sales increased from 3.0% to 3.7%, exceeding expectations of 3.5%. Additionally, the pair was supported by an increase in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand, which increased from 45.2 to 45.9 points in December.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan is preparing to set a rate at a 17-year peakThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, correcting to the level of 156.12 during the Asian session, after a rapid increase last week. The weakening of the US dollar is related to the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will take place today. The new president has already announced plans to promptly fulfill key election promises, including an increase in import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern to market participants.The Japanese yen is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics. The volume of orders for engineering products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, accelerating from the previous 5.6%. On a monthly basis, the growth was 3.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.4%. However, industrial production decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which nevertheless turned out to be better than previous values. The index of production capacity utilization decreased by 1.9% after October's 2.6% increase, while the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.1%. In the United States, December statistics on industrial production showed an increase of 0.9%, which significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.3%.On Friday, January 24, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, at which it is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since 2008. Experts believe that the regulator may increase the rate to 1.00% in the future, which corresponds to a level that does not cause overheating of the economy. The acceleration of wage growth should support inflation at 2.0%, which will allow maintaining a tight monetary policy. The consumer price index has already exceeded the regulator's target for almost three years, and the weakness of the yen contributes to high import costs. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to emphasize his willingness to continue policy adjustments if the Trump administration's moves do not lead to market destabilization. Inflation data will also be released on Friday.: The core index, which excludes fresh food prices, is projected to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.0%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.50, 158.18, 159.00.Support levels: 155.50, 154.96, 154.50, 153.87.Gold market analysisGold is showing moderate growth, recovering from the decline recorded at the end of last week, when quotes moved away from local highs reached on December 12, 2024. The instrument is testing the 2705.00 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark.Today, analysts' main attention is focused on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who is expected to make key decisions in the first hours after the ceremony. One of the most likely steps is the introduction of increased import duties on most goods entering the United States, especially from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. These measures could trigger disruption of global supply chains if the affected countries impose retaliatory sanctions. Such actions may force the US Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy. This year, the market expects the regulator to make only two interest rate adjustments of -25 basis points or less, with the first reduction expected to take place only in the second half of the year.Additional support for the US currency was provided by macroeconomic data released on Friday. In December, industrial production increased by 0.9% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. Capacity utilization increased from 77.0% to 77.6%. In addition, the construction sector showed impressive results: the volume of house construction started increased by 15.8% month-on-month, rising from 1,294 million to 1,499 million units, which significantly exceeded the projected 1,320 million.Resistance levels: 2724.70, 2740.53, 2760.00, 2775.00.Support levels: 2700.00, 2685.56, 2670.00, 2655.00.Crude Oil market analysisThis week, WTI Crude Oil prices approached the significant mark of $ 77.00 per barrel. The negative dynamics is explained by the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations related to the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term. In his first days in office, he is expected to present initiatives aimed at increasing oil production and allowing the development of fields in coastal areas, which may affect the overall balance in the market.Meanwhile, a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decline in oil prices in the coming years. According to analysts, in 2025, prices for "black gold" may drop to $ 69.76 per barrel, and in 2026 to $ 67.96, which is significantly lower than the October forecast of $ 72.84 for the current year. The IMF experts note that the market has undergone significant changes: a slowdown in demand from China and an increase in supply from non-OPEC countries are putting pressure on the value of the asset.According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in oil increased from 279.6 thousand to 306.3 thousand over the week, which is the highest since April, indicating increased trader activity.Resistance levels: 79.00, 82.40.Support levels: 75.90, 72.60.

EUR/USD: the pair is moving within the 1.0350–1.0000 channelThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair are in the correction phase, trading around the 1.0305 mark against the background of the weakening of the US currency. After a poor start to the year, the euro is regaining its position, receiving support from the publication of macroeconomic data.Today, key eurozone countries continue to provide information on inflation. In December, the consumer price index in France was 1.3%, remaining at the level of the previous month and coinciding with analysts' expectations. In Spain, inflation accelerated to 2.8% from the previous 2.4%. The consolidated indicator for the eurozone is projected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month and reach 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the November level of 2.2%. At the same time, the base index, which excludes the cost of food and energy resources, is likely to be fixed at 0.5%. Increased inflationary pressures may adjust the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), forcing it to reconsider plans to lower interest rates or slow down the pace of their reduction.Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0030.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0530.NZD/USD: New Zealand and the UAE have signed a partnership agreementThe New Zealand dollar is aiming to stay above the 0.5600 level during Asian trading on January 15. The national currency is supported by statistics on the business confidence index provided by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). According to the report, the indicator for the fourth quarter increased by 16.0%, offsetting the previous decrease by -1.0%.Earlier, the strengthening of the New Zealand currency was driven by positive data from the construction sector and China's foreign trade. The number of building permits in New Zealand increased by 5.3%, which fully offset the 5.2% decrease a month earlier. Meanwhile, exports from China grew by 10.7% year-on-year after the previous growth of 6.7%, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of 7.3%. Imports increased by 1.0% after falling by 3.9%, which contributed to an increase in the trade surplus from $97.44 billion to $104.84 billion, against expectations of $99.8 billion.In addition, representatives of New Zealand and the UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement aimed at increasing trade and investment flows. According to forecasts, the deal will allow to reach a trading volume of 5.0 billion dollars by 2032, providing an annual average of 1.5 billion dollars. At the same time, in the first nine months of last year, the non-oil trade turnover between the two countries amounted to 642.0 million dollars, which is 8.0% higher than the same period in 2023.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USDX: dollar loses ground ahead of inflation reportThe US dollar index (USDX) shows mixed sentiment, being near the 109.00 mark and testing it for a breakdown down. Yesterday, the index showed a moderate decline, continuing to adjust from the highs reached earlier in the week. The main driver of the "bearish" dynamics was weak statistics from the United States, which increased doubts about today's inflation data and lowered expectations of new changes in the Fed's monetary policy in 2025. In particular, the producer price index for the month fell from 0.4% to 0.2%, although it was predicted to remain at the same level, and year-on-year the indicator increased from 3.0% to 3.3%, but was lower than the expected 3.5%. At the same time, the base value decreased to 0.0% from the previous 0.2%, maintaining the annual dynamics at 3.5%.Forecasts for consumer inflation suggest that the monthly rate will increase from 0.3% to 0.4%, and the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the base value is likely to remain between 0.3% and 3.3%. Such data may signal a slowdown in the pace of the Fed's dovish policy. Central forecasts with a 97.3% probability assume that the interest rate will remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%, especially given Donald Trump's policy of reforming import duties, reducing the tax burden and tightening immigration rules, which may increase inflationary pressures.In addition, the monthly economic review of the US Federal Reserve "Beige Book" will be released today at 21:00 (GMT+2). The document covers 12 federal districts, providing up-to-date information on the state of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market and other sectors of the economy.Resistance levels: 109.50, 109.97, 110.40, 111.00.Support levels: 109.00, 108.50, 108.00, 107.50.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move within the framework of the local uptrend, remaining above $ 79.0 per barrel during the Asian session. The market is gradually recovering, but participants remain concerned about the possible consequences of new US sanctions that could affect Russian oil supplies to China and India, as well as the overall supply level on the global energy market.The quotes support the latest forecasts of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), according to which global oil production could reach 104.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and increase to 105.89 million barrels in 2026. At the same time, global demand is expected to decrease to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and to 105.15 million in 2026, which will create an oversupply of 260 thousand barrels and 740 thousand barrels, respectively. This will be in contrast to the deficit of 170,000 barrels recorded in 2024. According to experts, the main increase in production is expected in non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.Support levels: 78.30, 74.80.Resistance levels: 80.70, 84.40.

EUR/USD: Euro drops to November 2022 levelsThe euro continues to show a decline in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session on January 13, again trying to break through the 1.0200 mark and updating the November 2022 lows. The pair is rapidly approaching parity, and at the moment there are no obvious factors that can stop this movement.The US dollar is supported by expectations of the first steps of the newly elected President Donald Trump after the inauguration on January 20. Among the announced plans of the Republican administration is to increase import duties on goods from Canada and Mexico, which could accelerate inflation and force the Fed to tighten monetary policy. In addition, Trump's statements about the strategic importance of Greenland and the possibility of its return to US control are attracting the attention of the markets. His adviser Mike Waltz has already admitted that various ways of implementing this plan may be considered, including military measures.European investors are also analyzing December inflation data. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose from -0.3% to 0.4%, and on an annual basis — from 2.2% to 2.4%. Core inflation increased from -0.6% to 0.5%, reaching 2.7%. However, analysts believe that these figures are unlikely to affect the current policy of the ECB. Deutsche Bank experts note that despite the annual inflation rate in the service sector of about 4.0%, its growth rate and wages are slowing down. This allows us to expect to reach the target level of 2.0% by February. If the forecasts are confirmed, the ECB may consider lowering interest rates below the neutral level in 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0253, 1.0300, 1.0350, 1.0400.Support levels: 1.0200, 1.0150, 1.0100, 1.0050.GBP/USD: strong downward momentum of the pound is gaining momentumThe pound continues to develop the downward trend established last week, when the GBP/USD pair began to adjust from the local highs reached on January 7. The quotes are now approaching the 1.2140 level, testing it for a downward breakout. The US dollar is receiving additional support due to strong statistics on the US labor market.On Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2), the attention of British investors will be focused on inflation data. Analysts expect the annual core consumer price index to remain at 3.5%, while the overall figure could be 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. Also at this time, a report on retail prices will be published, which predicts a slight increase from 3.6% to 3.7%. On Thursday, the market will focus on the November UK GDP and industrial production data. Economists assume that both indicators will show positive dynamics.: GDP may grow by 0.2% after a decrease of 0.1%, and industrial production — up to 0.1% after a fall of 0.6%.Market participants are also assessing recent statements by the Deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sarah Breeden. She noted that current economic statistics indicate the possibility of a gradual easing of monetary policy, but the exact timing and pace of rate cuts remain uncertain. According to her, against the background of tax indexation carried out by the Labor government, the weakening of the national economy may continue, which requires a balanced approach from the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2200, 1.2230, 1.2261.Support levels: 1.2100, 1.2036, 1.2000, 1.1950.USD/CHF: NBS expects revenue of 80.0 billion francs for 2024he US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair, holding near the level of 0.91 70. At the start of the new trading week, buyer activity remains subdued, and there are no prerequisites for a noticeable corrective movement yet. The dollar is supported by expectations related to the start of the new term of Donald Trump, whose inauguration will take place on January 20, as well as data on the state of the US labor market, which may affect the monetary policy of the regulator.The Swiss National Bank forecasts a record profit of 80 billion francs by the end of 2024, which will be the highest figure since the establishment of the institution. The main factors of this result are the growth of the dollar, the appreciation of precious metals and successful investments in shares of the largest technology companies. The strengthening of the US currency, which accounts for 39% of the bank's reserves, contributes to an increase in the value of assets when converted into francs. In addition, the increase in gold prices, which rose by 27% last year, increased the value of 1.04 million metric tons of this metal on the bank's balance sheet. The official report will be published on March 3, but analysts are confident that the bank's shareholders can expect to receive their first dividend payments in the last three years.Resistance levels: 0.9188, 0.9225, 0.9250, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9150, 0.9130, 0.9100, 0.9037.USD/JPY: quotes are moving away from recent peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, retreating from Friday's peak at 157.35. This trend is associated with the release of new data on Japanese macroeconomics.According to November statistics, the household spending index increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 0.9%. On an annualized basis, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, which turned out to be a less significant decline compared to the expected decrease of 0.6%. Experts emphasize that the current wage growth rates offered by employers in Japan are insufficient to cover inflationary costs. This, along with the weakening of the yen, increases the financial burden on households and reduces the likelihood of continued tightening. Representatives of the Bank of Japan have previously stressed that the future of monetary strategy will depend on current economic statistics. In case of accelerated price growth, the interest rate may change. Currently, annual inflation is 2.9%, which exceeds the target level of 2.0%. If the growth rate continues, the regulator will have to take decisive action, which may support the Japanese currency.Resistance levels: 161.93 164.07.Support levels: 156.25, 149.57.

GBP/USD: british 10-year bonds have shown peak yields since 2008The GBP/USD pair continues to remain in the correction phase, trading around the 1.2294 mark. This dynamic is due to the stable exchange rate of the US dollar and the sell-off in the market of British debt instruments. Investors are concerned about the growth of government debt and the consequences of the first decisions of the new US President Donald Trump, who took office on January 20.The yield on 30-year UK bonds reached a record high of 5.455% in the last 26 years, while 10-year bonds rose to 4.921%. Despite these figures, the Ministry of Finance of the country does not see the need to take emergency measures. In 2025, it is planned to issue government bonds worth about 300 billion pounds, which, according to the authorities, can normalize the situation on the capital market. Rising yields can stimulate investor activity, and one of the possible steps to stabilize will be a short-term increase in the key rate, which will also support the fight against inflation.Meanwhile, the US currency is strengthening, the USDX index rose to the level of 109.0 points. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants expect the publication of data on employment in the US non-agricultural sector. 154 thousand jobs are projected to be created, compared to 227 thousand in November. The average hourly wage is likely to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%, while the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%. If the forecasts are confirmed, this could be a weighty argument for the Fed in favor of slowing down monetary policy tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 93.1% of investors are confident in maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. In addition, the published minutes of the Fed meeting indicate increased uncertainty about the economic course before the second term of Donald Trump. The regulator also noted the risks of accelerating inflation if the president's foreign trade and migration policies are fully implemented.Support levels: 1.2230, 1.2000.Resistance levels: 1.2380, 1.2610.USD/CHF: correction of the franc against the background of strengthening the position of the US currencyThe USD/CHF pair maintains a corrective trend near the level of 0.9125, demonstrating readiness for further growth. During the Asian session, the Swiss franc weakened slightly in the pair, which is explained by a decrease in market volatility and the strengthening of the US currency.The market is focused on the latest macroeconomic data from Switzerland. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index decreased by 0.1%, reaching 106.9 points, while in annual terms, the indicator slowed from 0.7% to 0.6%. The average annual inflation rate for 2024 was 1.1%, which corresponds to the central part of the target range of 0.0–2.0% set by the Swiss National Bank. These indicators may support the regulator's decision to continue its soft monetary policy in 2025. The bank plans to reduce the borrowing rate to 0.25%, and the head of the regulator Martin Schlegel admits the possibility of introducing negative rates. However, such measures are not yet on the priority agenda.Support levels: 0.9090, 0.8960.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9270.USD/CAD: the expectation of data on the US and Canadian labor markets sets the tone for tradingThe US dollar is showing moderate strengthening in the USD/CAD pair in morning trading, reaching the level of 1.4410. The upward momentum continues, but the pair remains under pressure from bearish sentiment after a sharp decline on Monday, January 6. Market participants are still showing restraint, awaiting the publication of employment data in the United States and Canada, which is scheduled for 15:30 (GMT+2).Economists predict a decrease in job growth in Canada from 50.5 thousand to 25.0 thousand. The average hourly wage is likely to remain at 3.9%, and the unemployment rate may rise to 6.9% from 6.8%. Additionally, investors will pay attention to statistics on construction permits: an increase of 1.8% is expected in November after a decrease of 3.1% a month earlier.On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he would step down after the election of a new leader of the Liberal Party. Against this background, analysts are discussing the possible impact of political instability on the rate of the Bank of Canada. According to Bank of America experts, if, as CBC News polls show, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Pouillevre strengthens its position and wins a majority in the House of Commons, this will lead to a change in the political vector and increased fiscal discipline.Resistance levels: 1.4435, 1.4466, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.NZD/USD: holding positions at the minimum levels of October 2022The New Zealand dollar is showing a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.5590 mark and the October 2022 levels, which were updated the day before. The pair is preparing to end the week with a slight correction related to the strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations for the publication of data on employment in the non-agricultural sector, scheduled for today at 15:30 (GMT+2).In the absence of significant statistics from New Zealand, investors' attention is focused on China's inflation figures. In December, the consumer price index fell to 0.1% year-on-year, and showed zero monthly dynamics after falling 0.6% earlier. These data were in line with analysts' forecasts, but indicate a decline in business activity in the country. This situation forces the People's Bank of China to consider additional stimulus measures to support the economy. In addition, the situation is complicated by rumors about possible new import duties that the US republican administration may impose. This creates additional obstacles to the recovery of Chinese economic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.

EUR/USD: ECB to maintain soft exchange rate – Deutsche BankThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session show a corrective trend, holding near the 1.0349 mark. The euro has resumed its decline after an unsuccessful attempt at growth, while volatility is increasing amid investor interest following the release of key macroeconomic data.Inflation figures for December were in the spotlight. The consumer price index rose from -0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis, and from 2.2% to 2.4% on an annual basis. The base indicator also increased from -0.6% to 0.5%, consolidating at 2.7%. In France and Italy, the dynamics remained unchanged, stopping at 1.3%. Although inflation is showing an increase, its indicators are in line with the expectations of the European Central Bank (ECB). Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the regulator will continue to adhere to the current strategy, basing its actions on general economic trends, rather than on individual indicators. According to forecasts, the harmonized index of inflation may fall below the target level of 2.0% as early as February, which will allow the ECB to begin reducing rates to a sub-neutral level during the year.The strengthening of the US dollar continues to exert pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The US currency was supported by positive data from the labor market: the number of job openings in November increased to 8,098 million, according to JOLTS, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 7,730 million. In addition, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector rose from 52.1 to 54.1 points in December, reflecting improved business conditions. Against this background, the US dollar is steadily strengthening its position, reaching the level of 108.4 points in the USDX index.Support levels: 1.0300, 1.0150.Resistance levels: 1.0390, 1.0580.USD/CHF: exchange rate growth supported by inflation data for DecemberThe USD/CHF pair is holding near the 0.9097 mark and demonstrates readiness to continue growth, focusing on the resistance level of 0.9158. The exchange rate is supported by published data on inflation in Switzerland.In December, the consumer price index remained at -0.1% on a monthly basis, in line with experts' expectations and the previous indicator, continuing its decline for the fourth month in a row. In annual terms, inflation slowed from 0.7% to 0.6%, which opens up opportunities for the Swiss National Bank to maintain a dovish monetary policy at the next meeting scheduled for March 20. In December, the regulator lowered the interest rate to 0.5%, which was the lowest level since November 2022.The updated forecasts of the department suggest that the average inflation in 2025 will be 0.3%, and in 2026 — 0.8%. Among the world's leading economies, inflation rates are lower only in China, where the rate is 0.2% per annum. To stimulate price growth, Switzerland may need to take additional measures, such as raising borrowing costs or increasing the volume of liquidity in the economy. Both scenarios may put pressure on the franc exchange rate, contributing to the strengthening of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9158, 0.9244.Support levels: 0.9022, 0.8917.USD/CAD: foreign trade has become a CAD growth driverThe USD/CAD exchange rate stabilized around the 1.4349 mark, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, which was facilitated by positive macroeconomic statistics from Canada.According to Statistics Canada, exports increased by 2.2% in November, exceeding the previous month's growth of 1.7%, while imports increased by 1.8% after 0.3% earlier. This dynamic has made it possible to reduce the trade deficit from $544 million to $323 million. However, exports of services decreased by 0.2% to $18.2 billion, while imports decreased by 0.1% to $18.5 billion. In addition, the Ivey composite Business Activity Index (PMI) rose to 54.7 points from 52.3 points, indicating a recovery in the business environment in the country.At the same time, the attention of market participants is focused on the developing political crisis. On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to leave office after choosing a new leader of the Liberal Party. Donald Trump, the US president-elect, in turn, spoke about the need to stop supporting Canada through American trade subsidies and hinted that the country's inclusion in the United States could stabilize its economy and increase its security. Earlier, Trump had already announced the possibility of imposing 25% duties on Canadian imports, which, according to him, could radically change the situation in the economy of the northern neighbor.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4150.Resistance levels: 1.4400, 1.4550.Silver market analysisSilver quotes (XAG/USD) stabilized around $30.0 per ounce after a temporary decline below this level. The instrument was supported by the weakening of the US currency, which reached an annual low of 107.5 points in the USDX index.With the beginning of a softer monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, silver is showing sensitivity to rate forecasts. However, this year, most analysts expect them to remain in the range of 4.25–4.50%. According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of such a scenario is 95.2%. The recovery of the American economy is also supported by fresh data: the index of business activity in the service sector increased from 56.1 to 56.8 points, the composite indicator rose from 54.9 to 55.4 points, although 56.6 points were expected. The number of vacancies in the non-agricultural sector, according to JOLTS, also increased to 8.098 million from 7,839 million previously.Trading activity in the silver market is showing growth. On Monday, the volume of transactions reached 80.0 thousand contracts, which exceeds the figures of January 2 and 3 at 59.0 and 43.0 thousand, respectively. In addition, option positions are also increasing: the day before, their volume amounted to 11,970 thousand against 5,700 thousand last week. These indicators indicate the optimism of market participants who expect silver prices to strengthen and form long positions for the long term.Support levels: 29.60, 27.90.Resistance levels: 30.60, 32.30.