EUR/USD: upward trend with an expected level of 1.1003 in the long term
The EUR/USD pair is heading towards 1.1003 amid a decrease in the strength of the US dollar caused by the latest data on a decrease in inflation.
The October US consumer price index fell to 3.2% per annum, which is less than the predicted 3.3% and the previous indicator of 3.7%. Core inflation was 0.2% against the forecast 0.3% and the previous 0.3%. This reflects the effectiveness of the actions of the US Federal Reserve System and may indicate the imminent end of the monetary policy tightening cycle, putting pressure on the dollar. The FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows 100% confidence in maintaining the rate at 5.50% at the upcoming meeting on December 13, compared with 90% a week earlier.
In the eurozone, inflation was in line with experts' forecasts: in October it was 0.1%, which is lower than the previous figure of 0.3%. Core inflation remains at 4.2%, down from the previous 4.5%. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holtzman expressed the opinion that it is unclear whether the regulator has done enough to combat inflation, and suggested that markets may be too optimistic in expectations of an interest rate cut.
- Resistance levels: 1.1003, 1.1220.
- Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0660.
AUD/USD: inflation data affect the fall of the US dollar
The AUD/USD currency pair has been updating its peak values since August 10, approaching the level of 0.6550 for a possible breakout upwards. Investors are focused on the outcome of the last meeting of the People's Bank of China, where it was decided to maintain the current interest rate at 3.45%, which has remained since August. Nevertheless, the authorities are signaling the potential for further easing of monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth.
According to a recent report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, an increase of 55.0 thousand jobs in the country was announced on Thursday, mainly due to an increase in the number of part-time employees by 37.9 thousand. However, this was accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Michelle Bullock, head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, noted that some key indicators, including the number of vacancies, show a downward trend from the maximum values. Most economists, including experts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., assume that the central bank will soon begin easing monetary policy to avoid additional negative impact on the country's economy.
- Resistance levels: 0.6550, 0.6600, 0.6650, 0.6700.
- Support levels: 0.6521, 0.6500, 0.6472, 0.6450.
GBP/USD: corrective strengthening of the pound in the face of conflicting statistics
The GBP/USD currency pair showed a significant strengthening, supporting the "bullish" trend established in the short term. Actively testing the 1.2490 level for the possibility of a breakthrough, the instrument remains near its highs recorded on September 14, but its upward movement is limited by the latest economic indicators from the UK.
The deputy head of the Bank of England, Dave Ramsden, spoke about the possible need to maintain a high level of interest rates for a long period in order to return inflation to the target of 2.0% in the medium term. Analysts assume that the bank will begin to reduce rates in May or June 2024, with three adjustments of 25 basis points by the end of next year, while the pressure on mortgage holders remains: Savanta research shows that 58.0% of respondents have overdue payments, compared with 49.0% a year earlier.
On the other hand, the position of the US dollar has strengthened thanks to the latest statistics from the United States. The number of building permits in October increased from 1.471 million to 1.487 million, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 1.450 million, and the volume of new construction of houses increased from 1.346 million to 1.372 million with an expected figure of 1.350 million.
- Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.
- Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.
NZD/USD: New Zealand manufacturing sector shows strengthening trends
The NZD/USD currency pair is gaining momentum, stabilizing at 0.6028 during morning trading, thanks to positive economic data from New Zealand.
In September, the producer price index in New Zealand registered an increase of 0.8% compared to August, while the purchasing price index increased by 1.2%. There was also an increase in the indicator of prices for capital goods by 0.8% and agricultural expenditures by 0.5%. The main drivers of this growth were dairy cattle breeding with 6.7%, electricity and gas supply with 6.0%, and dairy production with 2.3%. These data point to the successful adaptation of the real sector of the economy to increased interest rates and its continued recovery.
- Resistance levels: 0.6055, 0.6153.
- Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.