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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, silver and oil for Wednesday, January 29, 2025

AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, silver and oil for Wednesday, January 29, 2025

EUR/USD: investors are watching the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB

The euro is showing moderate growth in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting after a sharp drop the day before: the asset is testing the 1.0440 mark for an upward breakout, while traders expect new triggers for market movements and details about the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. The US currency continues to receive support after recent statements by the head of the White House about the possible imposition of tariffs on imports of semiconductors, pharmaceutical products and steel in order to stimulate domestic production. Recall that from February 1, 25.0% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico will come into force, but the fate of similar measures against the EU and China remains uncertain.

The US macroeconomic statistics published the day before turned out to be contradictory: orders for durable goods in December fell by 2.2% after falling by 2.0% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.8%, and the indicator excluding the transport sector added 0.3% after a decrease of 0.2% in November with a forecast of 0.4%.. The Richmond Federal Reserve's industrial business activity index rose from -10.0 to -4.0 points in January, beating forecasts of -8.0 points.

Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by the results of an ECB survey, according to which in the fourth quarter of 2024, eurozone financial institutions tightened lending conditions for businesses, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming months. Analysts note that borrowing volumes are declining amid weak domestic demand, slowing exports and government spending cuts. The most stringent credit conditions are recorded in commercial real estate, trade, the construction sector and energy-intensive industries.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554, 1.0600.
  • Support levels: 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253.

AUD/USD: inflation in Australia accelerated to 2.5%

The Australian dollar is showing weakness in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, continuing its downward movement in the short term. Quotes are trying to break through the 0.6235 level, and traders are evaluating the latest inflation data in the country.

According to published statistics, in December, the consumer price index rose to 2.5% yoy from 2.3% previously, but remained at 0.2% in quarterly terms, contrary to expectations of growth to 0.3%. At the same time, the overall figure for the year decreased from 2.8% to 2.4%, falling short of the projected 2.5%. Core inflation, calculated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) using the truncated average method, also weakened – from 3.6% to 3.2% yoy with a forecast of 3.3% and from 0.8% to 0.5% for the quarter instead of the expected 0.6%. The continued slowdown in inflationary pressure strengthens the arguments in favor of the RBA's soft monetary policy, which puts pressure on the national currency. An additional negative factor for the Australian dollar was the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index, which dropped to -2.0 points in December after -3.0 points in November, remaining significantly below the average over the past two years.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6274, 0.6300, 0.6330.
  • Support levels: 0.6225, 0.6200, 0.6178, 0.6155.

Silver market analysis

After a prolonged hold below the key level of 30.00 in the second half of the month, silver (XAG/USD) quotes strengthened to 30.40, demonstrating a confident potential for further growth.

Market participants are closely following Donald Trump's first steps as president of the United States, especially his plans to impose new duties on imports of raw materials from China, Mexico and Canada. If the tariffs are approved on February 1, it will limit the supply of 62.0% of imported silver to the American market, which could trigger price increases. Additional pressure on the stock sector was exerted by the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) model DeepSeek, which, according to the developers, is not inferior to ChatGPT, but uses cheaper processors and less data. In just a few days after launch, the app became the most popular in the American App Store, which led to a drop in the quotes of technology giants and an increase in demand for protective assets. In conditions of high market uncertainty, silver remains the most attractive of the liquid metals, significantly inferior in value to gold, platinum and palladium, which makes it a promising investment in the current macroeconomic environment.

  • Resistance levels: 30.80, 32.50.
  • Support levels: 29.90, 28.30.

Crude Oil market analysis

During the morning session, WTI Crude Oil showed a slight decrease, trading around 73.20, after a steady rise the day before. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar caused by Donald Trump's new statements, black gold quotes continued their upward trend. The head of the White House again outlined a tough course on tariff policy, expressing his intention to limit imports of strategically important goods, including computer chips, pharmaceutical products and steel, in order to stimulate domestic production. As early as February 1, 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico are likely to come into force, which will become part of a strategy to combat illegal migration, but the fate of trade restrictions against the EU and China remains uncertain.

An additional factor for the oil market was the risks of disruptions in the supply of raw materials from Libya. According to Bloomberg, the shutdown of the key export terminals Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, through which more than 400.0 thousand barrels pass daily, could reduce the country's exports by a third. If the situation worsens further, Libya risks completely suspending production, which will lead to a loss of 1.4 million barrels per day. Regional conflicts between the internationally recognized government in the west of the country and the eastern authorities, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, continue to destabilize the oil sector. On January 5, representatives of the Oil Crescent movement threatened to block production and exports if the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) did not relocate the headquarters of five energy companies to the eastern region, where the main production facilities and terminals are located.

  • Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.
  • Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.00, 70.00.
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Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and Oil for Monday, February 17, 2025
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and Oil for Monday, February 17, 2025 AUD/USD: forecasts point to RBA policy easingThe Australian dollar continues to strengthen in the AUD/USD pair, updating the local highs of mid-December 2024 and developing a short-term upward momentum. During the Asian session, the instrument is testing the 0.6370 level, receiving support from both technical factors and expectations of a potential peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which could have a positive impact on global markets and energy prices.Reports from Australia's largest financial institutions provide an additional positive background. For example, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a 2.0% increase in half-year profit to $5.13 billion, exceeding analysts' forecasts. In addition, dividend payments per share increased by 5.0%, and the bank's quotes reached a historic peak, which supported the ASX 200 index.Investors' attention remains focused on labor market data, which will be published on Thursday: experts expect employment growth to slow from 56.3 thousand to 20.0 thousand, and unemployment may rise to 4.1%. Also on Wednesday, statistics on wage dynamics for the fourth quarter will be released, where an annual decline from 3.5% to 3.2% is forecast.Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6420, 0.6455, 0.6478.Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.NZD/USD: medium-term dynamics shifted in favor of the bullsThe NZD/USD pair is trading above 0.5738, breaking the resistance level of 0.5691, which may signal a change in the long-term trend.Positive macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand contributed to the growth of quotations. Business inflation expectations in the first quarter were 2.06%, exceeding the forecast of 1.80%, and the food price index rose to 2.3% year-on-year, which increases the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep the rate at 4.25% on February 19. At the same time, investors expect a decrease to 3.75%, which may increase pressure on the national currency exchange rate. At the same time, business activity in January showed steady growth: the index in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.4 points from 45.9, and in the service sector – to 50.4 points.Last week, the US dollar weakened by 1.57% in USDX as investors shifted their focus to risky assets amid geopolitical stabilization. Peace talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine are expected to take place in Saudi Arabia in the spring. The decrease in tensions in the Gaza Strip is also contributing to a decrease in interest in the dollar as a safe haven asset. If the global situation continues to normalize, it will strengthen the growth of the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.USD/CAD: bearish momentum is gaining strengthThe USD/CAD pair remains under pressure during the morning session, developing the downward trend established last week. Quotes are testing the 1.4170 level for a downward breakdown, updating the minimum values since mid-December.The market continues to react to the 25.0% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum imports, of which Canada is the main supplier. Additional pressure on the economy is exerted by the recently signed memorandum on mutual trade restrictions, which increases investor concerns. Conservative Party leader Pierre Pouillevre expressed concern about the current state of the country's economy at a rally on February 15, stressing that after the pandemic stagnation, Canada is facing new challenges that threaten business and income levels.Traders' attention is focused on the upcoming Canadian inflation report, which will be published on Tuesday at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts predict that the consumer price index on a monthly basis will remain unchanged after a decrease of 0.4% earlier, and the base indicator will be fixed at the levels of -0.3% for the month and 1.8% in annual terms.Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350.Support levels: 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices remain under pressure, showing a moderate decline in morning trading. Quotes are testing the level of 70.70 for a downward breakdown, holding near the lows of December 30, updated earlier. Traders are being cautious, waiting for new factors to appear that could affect the direction of market movement.The main pressure on oil prices is exerted by uncertainty in the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. Earlier, the White House imposed 25.0% tariffs on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, and also imposed similar duties on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries. Chinese products are taxed at 10.0%. Additionally, the possibility of a significant reduction in Iranian oil exports and the introduction of new restrictions on supplies from Russia is being considered, which may be related to the process of peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.The corrective dynamics continues in the market. According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions on WTI Crude Oil decreased from 230.3 thousand to 220.0 thousand last week. There is a decrease in the activity of sellers: the balance of producers amounted to 446,121 thousand for the bulls against 382,201 thousand for the bears. During the week, buyers reduced their positions by 3,091 thousand contracts, and sellers – by 12,058 thousand, which indicates a weakening of selling pressure, but does not exclude further volatility.Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.62, 72.15, 73.00.Support levels: 70.00, 69.00, 68.30, 67.00.
Feb 17, 2025 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/CHF, USD/TRY and NZD/USD for Friday, February 14, 2025
USD/CHF, currency, USD/TRY, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/CHF, USD/TRY and NZD/USD for Friday, February 14, 2025 EUR/GBP: the market is waiting for fresh drivers to guide the trendThe European currency remains in the consolidation phase in the EUR/GBP pair, showing weak dynamics at 0.8325 during the morning session. The market is waiting for new fundamental factors that can determine the vector of movement of quotations. Investors are focused on the upcoming publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone for the fourth quarter of 2024, which will take place at 12:00 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the quarterly figure will remain at 0.0%, and in annual terms – at 0.9%. Employment data for the same period is also expected: analysts expect it to decrease from 0.2% to 0.1% on a quarterly basis and from 1.0% to 0.8% on an annual basis. Additional attention will be focused on the Spanish inflation statistics, which will be released at 10:00 (GMT+2): experts expect the consumer price index to remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.0% on an annual basis.The British pound continues to receive support from the strong macroeconomic data released earlier. Thus, the national GDP of the United Kingdom in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased from 1.0% to 1.4% in annual terms, exceeding the projected 1.1%, and the quarterly figure strengthened from 0.0% to 0.1%, although some economists did not rule out a decrease of 0.1%. In December, economic activity accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%, which was also higher than expected. However, analysts remain cautious in their forecasts, pointing out that the growth is temporary, as the tax increases planned in the new budget may negatively affect business investment activity and the purchasing power of the population. Additional support for the pound was provided by positive statistics on industrial production: in December, the volume of the sector increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.5% in November, while analysts expected a more modest increase of 0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator was adjusted from -1.8% to -1.9%, which is better than the expected value of -2.1%. Manufacturing output increased by 0.7% after falling 0.3% a month earlier, and year-on-year the decline was -1.4% against the expected -1.9%. Representatives of the Bank of England also contributed to the support of the national currency: the regulator's chief economist Hugh Pill and board member Megan Green warned against a hasty reduction in interest rates, stressing that the fight against inflation is far from over.Resistance levels: 0.8326, 0.8340, 0.8355, 0.8370.Support levels: 0.8310, 0.8290, 0.8280, 0.8259.USD/CHF: US economic reports for January in focusThe USD/CHF pair is showing recovery during morning trading, testing the 0.9045 level for an upward breakout. Market participants remain cautious, awaiting the emergence of new macroeconomic drivers.Retail sales data for January will be published in the United States today at 15:30 (GMT+2): analysts predict a decrease from 0.4% to -0.1%, and excluding the automotive segment, a slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% is expected. At 16:15 (GMT+2), a report on industrial production will be released: it is expected to grow by 0.3% against 0.9% a month earlier. Traders' attention is also focused on inflation data: the producer price index rose from 3.3% to 3.5% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts (3.2%), and decreased from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The base index excluding food and energy resources decreased from 3.7% to 3.6% (forecast: 3.3%). These figures correspond to the "hawkish" position of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who previously stated that in the face of continuing inflationary pressures, it is impractical to rush to lower interest rates.In Switzerland, inflation data was released on Thursday.: The consumer price index decreased from 0.6% to 0.4% in annual terms and remained at 0.1% on a monthly basis. Producer and import price indices are expected to be published today at 09:30 (GMT+2): analysts predict an increase of 0.1% after the December stagnation. UBS Group AG experts warn that the possible introduction of increased US customs duties on Swiss products could put pressure on the pharmaceutical industry, which accounts for 60% of the country's total exports. In the future, this may lead to a partial relocation of production facilities and research centers of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the United States.Resistance levels: 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130.Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8929, 0.8900.USD/TRY: Lira remains under pressure, growth prospects unclearThe Turkish lira continues to weaken, and the USD/TRY pair is showing growth, trading around 36.1920 during the Asian session.The published macroeconomic statistics do not support the national currency: in December, the construction cost index increased by 34.27% year-on-year and by 0.7% month-on-month. At the same time, the cost of construction of residential buildings increased by 34.67% over the year and by 0.66% over the month, and civil engineering — by 33.0% and 0.81%, respectively. This indicates a slowdown in the pace of new housing construction caused by a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, which is under severe pressure from high inflation. Against the background of domestic economic problems, the Turkish authorities continue to strengthen international relations, expanding cooperation with Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan. The trade turnover with these countries has already exceeded $8.0 billion, and during the three-day visit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to conclude new agreements in strategic sectors, including defense, aviation, energy, infrastructure, healthcare, education, agriculture, tourism and the digital economy.However, even increased foreign economic activity is unlikely to be able to compensate for Turkey's structural problems, which makes the lira unlikely to strengthen. Under these conditions, the US currency is likely to continue to dominate the USD/TRY pair, maintaining its current positions in the medium term.Resistance levels: 36.3000, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.0000, 35.3000.NZD/USD: the exchange rate increases growth, breaking through local levelsThe New Zealand dollar is showing moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair during the Asian session, continuing the upward movement that began the day before and updating local highs since February 7 near the 0.5685 mark.The asset is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics: the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose from 45.9 to 51.4 points in January, and the food price index accelerated from 0.1% to 1.9%, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to further reduce interest rates. At the same time, the regulator presented an updated inflation forecast for the first quarter of 2025, adjusting expectations from 2.12% to 2.06%, which is almost in line with the target level of 2.0%. The New Zealand dollar reacted to these changes with a decline, as the likelihood of further monetary policy easing increased.Additional attention of investors was attracted by the telephone conversation between the presidents of the United States and Russia, which took place on February 12. Issues of prisoner exchange, settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the possibility of a personal meeting between the two leaders were discussed, which could potentially have a positive impact on global economic sentiment. However, the protectionist course of the Donald Trump administration continues to cause concern in the markets. So, it became known that the American president instructed to develop new retaliatory duties against countries that restrict imports of goods from the United States. It is expected that the first of them may enter into force as early as April 1, which creates additional risks for global trade.Resistance levels: 0.5700, 0.5723, 0.5750, 0.5775.Support levels: 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633, 0.5607.
Feb 14, 2025 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Thursday, February 13, 2025
GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Thursday, February 13, 2025 GBP/USD: Pound strengthens amid British GDP growthThe British pound continues to strengthen in the GBP/USD pair, correcting the downward trend that has dominated since mid-January. At the beginning of the week, quotes reached the level of 1.2451 (Murray [4/8]), which was due to the statement by US President Donald Trump on the introduction of 25.0% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. However, further growth is being held back by expectations of a prolonged period of high interest rates from the US Federal Reserve System.Contradictory comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell exerted additional pressure on the dollar. In his speech to Congress, he noted the stability of the economy and the labor market, as well as a steady slowdown in inflation, which allowed officials not to rush to lower rates. However, data on the consumer price index released on Tuesday showed an increase in inflation from 2.9% to 3.0% year—on-year, and the base rate from 3.2% to 3.3%. In response, Powell was forced to adjust his position, admitting that the targets had not yet been reached, and that the regulator would probably have to keep rates at the current level for longer. This has led to a revision of market expectations: investors now assume that the first reduction in borrowing costs will take place not in June, but closer to the end of the year.The pound was supported by unexpectedly strong UK GDP data for the fourth quarter. The country's economy grew by 0.1% in quarterly terms, despite the projected decline by the same level, and year-on-year the indicator reached 1.4%, exceeding expectations of 1.1%. This factor reduces the likelihood of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Bank of England in the coming months, which supports the position of the British currency.Resistance levels: 1.2512, 1.2695, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2390, 1.2207, 1.2085.USD/JPY: US deficit reaches $128.64 billionThe US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/JPY pair, holding near the 154.35 mark during the Asian session. Quotes are testing the resistance level for an upward breakdown, while the US currency remains supported by strong inflation data for January, published the day before.The report on the consumer price index recorded an increase from 2.9% to 3.0% in annual terms, and the base indicator rose from 3.2% to 3.3%, while analysts predicted that the indicator would remain at the same level and slow down to 3.1%. These data confirm the statement by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, that the regulator does not yet see any reason for accelerated monetary policy easing, especially against the background of inflationary pressure risks due to the protectionist course of the White House. In addition, the US budget deficit increased from $87.0 billion to $128.64 billion, which is almost six times higher than in January 2023. Experts attribute this growth to increased government spending on healthcare, social security, and debt interest payments. Today, market participants will focus on statistics on industrial inflation: the base index is expected to slow down from 3.5% to 3.3% year—on-year, and in monthly terms, an increase from 0.0% to 0.3%.Meanwhile, the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stressed that the regulator takes into account the likelihood of prolonged high prices for food and other essential goods, which may affect the inflation expectations of the population. In January, the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 0.50%, the highest level in 17 years, declaring its intention to achieve stable price growth supported by steady wage increases. In addition, Kazuo Ueda confirmed that a review of the government bond purchase program will be presented in the summer: earlier, the Bank of Japan announced plans to reduce their volume to 3.0 trillion yen from January to March 2026.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.00, 155.50, 156.00.Support levels: 153.70, 153.27, 152.53, 151.50.Gold market analysisGold is showing moderate growth, once again approaching historical highs above $ 2,900 per ounce: at the moment, XAU/USD is testing the level of 2920.0, while traders are awaiting the publication of fresh data on US manufacturing inflation and weekly statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. According to forecasts, the number of initial applications on February 7 may decrease from 219.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand, and repeat applications from 1.886 million to 1.88 million (for the week of January 31). In addition, experts predict a decrease in the basic producer index (excluding food and energy) from 3.5% to 3.3% year—on-year, and a monthly increase from 0.0% to 0.3%.Meanwhile, according to RBC, by January 1, 2025, the remaining precious metals and stones in Russian accounts amounted to 325.4 billion rubles, which is equivalent to 38.1 tons of gold — half as much as in the fall of 2023, when a three-year maximum was recorded. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, last year, reserves of precious metals in monetary terms decreased by 23.6%, while physical reserves of gold fell by 46.4%, losing more than 33 tons. This is the largest reduction since 2020, when, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, stocks decreased by 34.5 tons.Resistance levels: 2920.00, 2942.65, 2965.00, 2980.00.Support levels: 2900.00, 2875.00, 2858.06, 2845.00.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent Crude Oil remains in the local sideways range after the publication of the OPEC+ report, holding above $ 74.0 per barrel during Asian trading.According to the report, in January, the participating countries increased production by 13 thousand barrels per day, however, taking into account voluntary restrictions, the actual volume turned out to be 251 thousand barrels per day below the established limit. With the allowed daily limit of 35.427 million barrels, real production amounted to 35.176 million, which looks positive against the background of regular quota exceedances last year. According to OPEC+ forecasts, global oil demand in 2025 and 2026 will grow by 1.4 million barrels per day, reaching 105.2 million and 106.63 million barrels, respectively. The main consumers are China, India, other Asian countries, as well as countries in the Middle East and Latin America. The forecast for production in the United States was revised down by 50,000 barrels per day, and now the estimated level is 13.47 million barrels per day, which is lower than preliminary estimates made after President Donald Trump's statements about the expansion of offshore production along the American coast.Additional pressure on Brent oil is exerted by data on reserves. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), their volume increased by 9.043 million barrels after a previous increase of 5.025 million barrels. According to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil reserves also continued to grow, adding 4.070 million barrels after a jump of 8.664 million barrels earlier.Support levels: 72.91, 69.83.Resistance levels: 79.22, 82.40.
Feb 13, 2025 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, silver and oil for Wednesday, February 12, 2025
AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, silver and oil for Wednesday, February 12, 2025 GBP/USD: the regulator urged to maintain tight control over the marketThe pound is holding near 1.2445 during Asian trading: investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of key economic data from the United States.On Thursday, the UK will present a report on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 and December: analysts predict an acceleration in economic growth in annual terms from 0.9% to 1.1%, but expect a decrease of 0.1% on a quarterly basis after a zero change earlier. December figures may show an increase of 0.1%, while industrial production is likely to continue to decline: it is expected to decrease by 2.1% year—on-year after -1.8% a month earlier, and a correction of 0.2% is possible month-on-month after -0.4% in November.The statements of the representatives of the Bank of England remain in the focus of traders' attention. Board member Catherine Mann stressed that her vote for a rate cut at the last meeting did not mean a similar decision in March. She still advocates maintaining a tight monetary policy and considers a neutral rate level in the range of 3.00–3.50%. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mann noted that it will be more difficult for businesses to raise prices in 2025, as the tax burden and rising unemployment reduce the purchasing power of Britons. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, on Tuesday warned politicians against excessive liberalization of financial markets, saying that finding a balance between economic growth and the stability of the system remains a difficult task.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.AUD/USD: White House criticizes Australia for impact on aluminum marketThe Australian dollar shows mixed dynamics in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near the local highs of January 24. Quotes are testing the 0.6290 support, but investors prefer a wait-and-see attitude, keeping an eye on key macroeconomic data that can set the direction of movement.So, at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market expects the publication of the January report on inflation in the United States. Experts predict that the core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) will accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, and slow down from 3.2% to 3.1% on an annual basis. The overall indicator may adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%, settling at 2.9%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's next speech to Congress will take place at 17:00 (GMT+2), but analysts do not expect new signals from him regarding monetary policy.Meanwhile, trade tensions between Australia and the United States are intensifying. Peter Navarro, President Donald Trump's trade adviser, said that aluminum supplies from Australia are damaging the American industry, justifying the introduction of 25.0% tariffs on metal imports. The Australian Government continues to seek exclusion from the list of countries subject to the new restrictions. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed hope that the Australian steel and aluminum industry would not come under sanctions pressure, despite harsh statements from the White House. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Australia ranks 17th among steel suppliers and 8th in terms of aluminum imports into the country over the past 10 years. In 2024, 223.0 thousand tons of steel and 83.0 thousand tons of aluminum were exported to the United States.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6330, 0.6372, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6274, 0.6250, 0.6225, 0.6200.Silver market analysisThe corrective decline of the XAG/USD pair has stalled at the resistance of 32.30, and quotes are ready for an upward breakout amid changes in US trade policy.President Donald Trump announced the introduction of 25.0% duties on steel and aluminum imports from all countries without exception, while production transferred to the United States is exempt from them. This creates the prerequisites for an increase in the cost of metals, as the new tariffs will take effect on March 12. According to media reports, the next step of the White House may be to impose restrictions on the supply of copper, which has already caused an increase in prices for raw materials. Yesterday, gold updated its historical high at 2942.00, while silver reached its December peaks at 32.30.According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in silver increased from 44.4 thousand to 50.4 thousand. Buyers continue to dominate the market, strengthening their positions. The balance of transactions with real collateral is 57,040 thousand contracts against 19,670 thousand for sellers. During the week, the bulls increased their assets by 10,178 thousand contracts, while the bears reduced their positions by 0.874 thousand. This indicates an increased demand for defensive assets in the face of rising trading risks.Resistance levels: 32.30, 34.20, 35.50.Support levels: 30.00, 27.80.Crude Oil market analysisDuring morning trading, WTI Crude Oil shows mixed dynamics, holding at 72.75 and the highs recorded on February 3. The main support for the quotes is provided by a reduction in the supply of raw materials from Russia: according to media reports, production volumes in January were below the established OPEC+ quotas, and it remains unclear whether the country will be able to increase production in the coming months.Pressure on the asset is exerted by a recent report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which recorded a sharp increase in commercial fuel reserves: in the week to February 7, the figure increased from 5.025 million to 9.043 million barrels, while analysts expected only 2.8 million. Today at 5:30 p.m. (GMT+2), market participants are awaiting the publication of official statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which predicts a decrease from 8.664 million to 2.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy has revised its forecast for oil production excluding other liquid hydrocarbons, raising the estimate for 2025 from 13.55 million to 13.59 million barrels per day, and for 2026 from 13.62 million to 13.73 million.The situation in the oil market remains unstable: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions on WTI Crude Oil decreased from 264.1 thousand to 230.3 thousand contracts last week. At the same time, there is a decrease in interest from sellers: their combined positions among manufacturers decreased from 449,211 thousand to 394,260 thousand. Buyers, on the contrary, increased their activity, increasing contracts by 2,714 thousand, while the "bears" reduced their positions by 20,748 thousand. This indicates a possible further volatility of quotations.Resistance levels: 73.00, 74.00, 75.00, 76.00.Support levels: 72.15, 71.62, 71.00, 70.00.
Feb 12, 2025 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY for Tuesday, February 11, 2025
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY for Tuesday, February 11, 2025 AUD/USD: White House tightens import duties on metalsThe AUD/USD pair is showing sideways dynamics at the level of 0.6272, reacting to the moderate growth of the US currency and ambiguous macroeconomic indicators from Australia.Statistics on the construction sector in December turned out to be mixed: the total number of approved projects increased by 0.7% after falling by 3.4% a month earlier, reaching 15,174 thousand, but the figure for private homes decreased by 3.0%, falling to 8,715 thousand. At the same time, the cost of permits for non–residential buildings increased by 9.7%, from 6.18 billion to 6.62 billion Australian dollars, while in the residential segment there was a decrease of 0.9%, from 8.38 billion to 8.32 billion Australian dollars. The National Bank of Australia (NAB) business confidence index for January strengthened from -2.0 to 4.0 points, marking the highest since October, but did not have a noticeable impact on the pair's movement.The US dollar maintains its position around 108.20 in USDX after the news about the upcoming introduction of 25.0% duties on steel and aluminum imports, which starts on March 4 without exceptions for any countries. According to President Donald Trump, this step should help strengthen domestic production and increase jobs in the industry. Investors have so far refrained from active trading decisions, awaiting today's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. His first comment after the inauguration of the American leader may set a further direction for financial markets.Resistance levels: 0.6310, 0.6410.Support levels: 0.6240, 0.6140.NZD/USD: unemployment reached 5.1% due to seasonal factorsThe NZD/USD pair is consolidating near 0.5444, reacting to the local strengthening of the US dollar and disappointing macroeconomic data from New Zealand.In December, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.1% from 4.8%, reflecting a deterioration in the situation among both men (4.9% versus 4.7%) and women (5.2% versus 5.0%). The total number of unemployed reached 156.0 thousand, which is 7.0 thousand more than in the third quarter. At the same time, employment decreased by 32.0 thousand people in annual terms, amounting to 2.916 million. The largest number of jobs decreased in the field of technical specialties (-22.6 thousand), the administrative sector (-20.4 thousand) and the transport industry (-17.0 thousand). Against the background of weak indicators, the probability of further easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is increasing, which creates additional pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency.Support levels: 0.5620, 0.5520.Resistance levels: 0.5680, 0.5790.USD/CAD: traders' attention is focused on employment statisticsThe USD/CAD pair is correcting upward after a moderate decline the day before, trading around 1.4331: investors remain cautious, awaiting new comments from US President Donald Trump.Traders are carefully analyzing the latest data on the US and Canadian labor markets for January. In the United States, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector decreased from 307.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, which turned out to be worse than forecasts (170.0 thousand). The average hourly wage accelerated from 3.9% to 4.1% in annual terms, exceeding expectations of 3.8%, and from 0.3% to 0.5% on a monthly basis. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%. The Canadian figures turned out to be stronger than expected: employment did not decrease as significantly as expected, falling from 91.0 thousand (revised from 90.9 thousand) to 76.0 thousand with a forecast of 25.0 thousand. The average hourly wage slowed from 3.8% to 3.7%, and the unemployment rate, contrary to expectations of an increase to 6.8%, decreased to 6.6% from 6.7% a month earlier.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.USD/JPY: the pair is held at local lowsThe US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/JPY pair, holding near the level of 152.00: traders are refraining from active actions, waiting for clarifications on Washington's trading strategy and new factors that can set the direction of the quotes movement.Against this background, the yen is under pressure from weak Japanese macroeconomic statistics. In January, bank lending volumes increased by 3.0%, although analysts had expected 3.1%. The index of assessment of the current economic situation from Eco Watchers decreased from 49.0 to 48.6 points, while the forecast indicator was adjusted from 49.4 to 48.0 points. In addition, data on the balance of payments, excluding seasonal fluctuations, showed a significant decrease in December — from 3352.5 billion yen to 1077.3 billion yen, which turned out to be worse than market expectations (1362.0 billion yen).An additional risk to the Japanese currency remains the country's colossal public debt, which is more than twice the size of the national economy, remaining the highest among developed countries. According to the Ministry of Finance, at the end of December it amounted to 1173.56 trillion yen in bonds, 46.88 trillion yen in loans and 97.20 trillion yen in promissory note financing. The sharp increase in spending on social support and the defense sector continues to exacerbate the debt burden, which limits the authorities' ability to maneuver financially.Resistance levels: 152.53, 153.27, 153.70, 154.50.Support levels: 151.50, 150.92, 150.50, 150.00.
Feb 11, 2025 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/TRY and USD/CAD for Friday, February 7
GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/TRY and USD/CAD for Friday, February 7 GBP/USD: British regulator announces rate cutThe GBP/USD pair shows a moderate decline at the beginning of the trading session, consolidating around 1.2425. Market participants are taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the publication of the January report on the US labor market, scheduled for 15:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector will decrease from 256.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand, the average hourly wage will decrease from 3.9% to 3.8% year-on-year, and will remain at 0.3% month-on-month. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.1%. Despite the increasing pressure, the labor market remains stable amid the current measures of the US Federal Reserve. Additional attention of investors was attracted by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, who noted that the strengthening of the tariff policy of the republican administration could provoke an increase in inflation comparable to the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also expressed concern that the introduction of new import duties could have a more serious impact on consumer price dynamics than during the first presidential term of Donald Trump.The British market is focused on the January data on the house price index from Halifax Bank Plc.: analysts predict an increase of 0.2% after a decrease of 0.2% a month earlier. In addition, investors are assessing the results of the Bank of England meeting that ended the day before. As expected, the regulator lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, while two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported more aggressive easing, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points immediately. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further decisions in the field of monetary policy will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. The regulator's official statement indicates that inflation slowed to 2.5% in the fourth quarter, but the positive trend may be temporarily disrupted due to adjustments in energy and utility prices. It is expected that the indicator will reach the target level of 2.0% no earlier than the end of 2027. At the same time, economic growth turned out to be weaker than November forecasts, and consumer and business confidence continues to decline, which creates additional pressure on the British currency.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.AUD/USD: the exchange rate maintains positions at local highsThe Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during Asian trading, holding near the level of 0.6280 and local peaks on January 27. Ending the week on a positive note, the exchange rate compensated for the recent decline, when quotes reached their lowest values since April 2020.At the same time, Australia's macroeconomic statistics leave a contradictory impression. In December, exports slowed from 4.2% to 1.1%, while imports increased sharply from 1.4% to 5.9%, resulting in a decrease in the trade surplus from $6.792 million to $5.085 million. The analysts' forecast assumed a result of 7.0 million dollars. The National Bank of Australia's business confidence index for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed only a slight recovery, rising from -7.0 to -4.0 points. The growth of the tourist flow provides some support to the national economy. This New Year's season, the number of Chinese citizens traveling abroad increased by almost 30.0% compared to last year, which has already affected the Australian market. In 2023, Chinese tourists brought in over $300.0 million to Western Australia, stimulating the development of the hospitality industry and partially offsetting the region's dependence on raw material exports. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, up to 1.5 million Chinese travelers visited Australia annually, spending a total of about $12.0 billion.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6320, 0.6372, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6274, 0.6250, 0.6225, 0.6200.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident in strengthening liraThe USD/TRY pair is strengthening during the morning session, recovering the losses of the last two days and testing the 36.0000 mark again. Investors continue to closely monitor the trade policy of the administration of US President Donald Trump, which remains a key factor in market uncertainty.Since February 1, the White House has imposed new import duties: Chinese goods are subject to a 10.0% tax, and products from Canada and Mexico — 25.0%, with the exception of Canadian energy resources, for which a tariff of 10.0% is set. However, the very next day, the deadline for the introduction of the latest restrictions was postponed for a month due to agreements to strengthen border control aimed at combating illegal migration and smuggling of prohibited substances. Now the United States can extend similar measures to the European Union, which is ready to respond with symmetrical sanctions. In addition, the focus is on Trump's statement about the possible transfer of the Gaza Strip to the United States after the end of the military conflict between Israel and Hamas, followed by the eviction of its residents. The Turkish authorities strongly condemned the plan, calling it "unacceptable" and pointing to the historical nature of the conflict, exacerbated by such initiatives.Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek expressed confidence that the national currency will continue to strengthen if the current economic rate remains unchanged. He stressed that slowing inflation remains the government's key task, and the Central Bank should continue its tight credit policy. According to him, achieving the goals set will help return the economy to sustainable growth at 5.0% in real terms.Resistance levels: 36.0000, 36.1000, 36.2000, 36.3000.Support levels: 35.8800, 35.8000, 35.7250, 35.6500.USD/CAD: Canadians approve retaliatory duties on US sanctionsThe USD/CAD pair is showing a correction around 1.4320, and the Canadian dollar is strengthening, almost leveling off the losses recorded last week.The US tariffs of 25.0% on exports from Canada were postponed for 30 days just a few hours after their official introduction. According to analysts, this measure was rather a tool of pressure from Washington in negotiations on migration policy. However, according to a Nanos Research Group study, 80.0% of Canadians are in favor of retaliatory trade duties on oil supplies if the Donald Trump administration decides to impose restrictions. The greatest support for such measures was recorded in the Atlantic Provinces (89.0%), where the main offshore projects are concentrated. At the same time, 79.0% of respondents said that the government should introduce "mirror" tariffs, even if this leads to an acceleration of inflation.Despite the positive attitude of the society, the pressure on the Canadian currency is increasing due to weak macroeconomic indicators. The Ivey business activity index fell from 54.7 points to 47.1 points in January, reaching its lowest level since December 2023. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will focus on employment data: the unemployment rate is projected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8% amid a decrease in the number of new jobs from 90.9 thousand to 25.5 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.4420, 1.4710.Support levels: 1.4240, 1.4010.
Feb 07, 2025 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, February 6, 2025
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, February 6, 2025 EUR/USD: business reports from the EU provoke a decline in the dollarThe European currency is strengthening against the US dollar, and the EUR/USD pair is consolidating around 1.0386, supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone.In January, the index of business activity in the German service sector rose from 51.2 to 52.5 points, in France, on the contrary, decreased from 49.3 to 48.2 points, in Italy it decreased from 50.7 to 50.4 points, and the overall indicator for the EU dropped from 51.6 to 51.3 points, remaining in the growth zone. The S&P Global composite index increased from 49.0 to 50.5 points in Germany, remained at 47.6 points in France, and rose from 49.6 to 50.2 points in the eurozone. Additionally, the EU producer price index remained unchanged in December, which was significantly better than the previous drop of 1.2%. Overall, inflation remains under control, which opens up the possibility for the European Central Bank (ECB) to further ease monetary policy.For the first time in a week, the US currency does not respond to fundamental factors: after the publication of statistics, the dollar adjusted downwards, trading at 107.50 in the USDX index. In January, the index of business activity in the US services sector decreased from 56.8 to 52.9 points, while the ISM index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector adjusted from 54.0 to 52.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.0430, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0210.USD/JPY: Bank of Japan confirms policy tightening courseThe USD/JPY pair continues to decline during the Asian session, developing a downward trend that began in mid-January. Quotes are testing the 152.30 level, updating the lows recorded on December 12. The yen is strengthening its position due to the growing demand for defensive assets, while investors are assessing the consequences of the trade policy pursued by the US republican administration.Japan's published macroeconomic data show positive dynamics: the Jibun Bank business activity index in the industrial sector rose from 52.7 to 53.0 points in January, and wages increased by 4.8% in December after rising by 3.9% a month earlier, exceeding analysts' forecasts for a slowdown to 3.8%.Kazuhiro Masaki, Head of the Monetary Affairs Department of the Bank of Japan, confirmed that the regulator is ready to continue raising interest rates if core inflation accelerates to the target level of 2.0%. This statement indicates the authorities' intention to maintain a course towards a gradual tightening of monetary policy, despite the uncertainty associated with US trade tariffs affecting market volatility. Recall that in December, core consumer inflation in Japan reached 3.0% in annual terms, the highest level in the last 16 months. The inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 has already been revised upward from 1.9% to 2.1%, which reinforces expectations for further steps by the Bank of Japan towards normalization of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 152.74, 153.27, 153.70, 154.50.Support levels: 151.50, 150.50, 150.00, 149.35.Silver market analysisXAG/USD quotes continue their local corrective trend, strengthening after trying to stay below 31.00 at the beginning of the month. The instrument is currently testing the 32.23 level, setting the stage for further growth.The delayed imposition of trade duties on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, initiated by the administration of Donald Trump, has become a positive factor for the metals market. Washington agreed to postpone the restrictions for 30 days after the governments of the two countries promised to strengthen control over illegal migration and the fight against the smuggling of prohibited substances. However, the ongoing trade tensions continue to worry investors: more than 60% of U.S. silver is purchased from Canada and Mexico, and the dependence of the American market on these suppliers forced the White House to adjust planned tariffs on energy and raw materials in the mining sector from 25% to 10%. Despite this, the expansion of protectionist policies increases the level of uncertainty and stimulates demand for protective assets, including silver.Support levels: 31.80, 29.60.Resistance levels: 32.60, 34.50.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the morning session, WTI Crude Oil quotes continued to trade near their lowest values since December 30, holding at 71.00 under pressure from the foreign economic policy of the Donald Trump administration, which is accompanied by new trade restrictions.Since the beginning of February, the White House has imposed increased duties on a number of countries, but then postponed the date of entry into force of sanctions against Mexico and Canada for a month. In response, China announced mirror measures by increasing tariffs on imports of American goods. Now the market's attention is shifting to possible trade barriers between the US and the EU: earlier, Trump said that Europe was behaving "terribly" towards America. Brussels has already made it clear that they are ready to impose retaliatory restrictions if Washington raises taxes on European products.Additional pressure on prices was exerted by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA): in the week ended January 31, commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 8.664 million barrels, significantly exceeding the projected 3.2 million barrels. Similar data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) also recorded an increase in reserves of 5.03 million barrels against 3.17 million a week earlier. Meanwhile, OPEC has been reducing hydrocarbon production for the second month in a row: according to Reuters, in January, production decreased by 50,000 barrels per day to 26.53 million. The largest decrease was recorded in Nigeria and Iran (-60,000 barrels), as well as in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. At the same time, Saudi Arabian Oil Group raised the price of Arab Light oil for the Asian market by $2.40 per barrel in March, which was a record level over the past two years, reflecting higher premiums for Middle Eastern raw materials and improved margins for refineries.Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.62, 72.15, 73.00.Support levels: 70.00, 69.00, 68.30, 67.00.
Feb 06, 2025 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and gold for Wednesday, February 5, 2025
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and gold for Wednesday, February 5, 2025 EUR/USD: Euro in consolidation, awaiting growth momentumThe euro shows mixed dynamics in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.0380. After steady growth in the previous two days, the single currency reached the levels of the end of last week, which is associated with a sharp "bearish" gap at the start of the trading week.Traders' attention is focused on the January statistics on business activity in the eurozone from S&P Global. According to forecasts, the index in the German service sector will remain at 52.5 points, the same indicator for the eurozone will remain at 51.4 points, and a slight decrease from 50.7 to 50.5 points is expected in Italy. At 12:00 (GMT+2), December statistics on the producer price index will be released: monthly growth is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 0.4% and the annual rate will increase from -1.2% to -0.1%.Next, the focus of market participants will switch to the publication of American data. At 17:00 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the service sector will be released: S&P Global predicts that the indicator will remain at 52.8 points, and the ISM index is likely to grow from 54.1 to 54.3 points. At 15:15 (GMT+2), investors will pay attention to the ADP report on private sector employment — experts expect an increase from 122.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand jobs, which will become a guideline before the publication of key data on the US labor market on Friday, February 7. According to forecasts, the NFP indicator will decrease from 256.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand, the average hourly wage in annual terms will decrease from 3.9% to 3.8%, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.GBP/USD: investors are focused on British statistics on the service sectorThe pound sterling maintains neutral dynamics in the GBP/USD pair, trading around 1.2469 during the Asian session: despite the correction of the US dollar, the asset fails to continue its growth.Investors' attention is focused on the upcoming publication of the index of business activity in the UK services sector for January: according to forecasts, the indicator may improve slightly - from 51.1 points to 51.2 points, which will lead to an increase in the composite index from 50.4 points to 50.9 points. However, the situation in the manufacturing sector remains difficult: new orders continue to decline and jobs are being cut, and in April the tax burden on wages is expected to increase and the minimum wage will be revised. As a result, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' index rose from 47.0 points to 48.3 points, but still remains in the recession zone.Pressure on the US dollar increased after statements by the administration of President Donald Trump about postponing the introduction of 25.0% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico for 30 days. The leaders of these countries promised to strengthen measures to combat illegal migration, which investors perceived as part of tactical negotiations that contradict early statements by the White House about the need to protect national businesses. An additional negative factor for the dollar was JOLTS data on the number of open vacancies in the United States, which decreased from 8,156 million to 7,600 million, the lowest level since September.Resistance levels: 1.2520, 1.2690.Support levels: 1.2420, 1.2250.USD/CAD: analysts warn of a possible crisis in CanadaThe USD/CAD pair is consolidating at 1.3430, testing the resistance level against the background of a decrease in trading activity after a sharp increase in quotations to 1.4800 at the beginning of the week. The rise was caused by the announcement of the introduction of US tariffs of 25.0% on imports of goods from Canada, but the parties agreed to postpone the deadline, giving Ottawa the opportunity to strengthen control over migration flows.Analysts warn that the escalation of trade disputes could become the largest crisis in economic relations between the two countries since the 1930s. The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 6.7% to 8.7–9.7%, which will return the indicator to the values of the COVID-19 pandemic. Doug Porter, an economist at the Bank of Montreal, believes that the Canadian economy will enter a "moderate recession" as early as 2025, and Tu Nguyen, an expert at RSM Canada, estimates a possible decline in GDP of 2.0%, which exceeds the previously forecast 1.8%.Investors are awaiting Friday's release of January Canadian labor market data. According to preliminary estimates, the number of people employed in the economy will decrease from 90.9 thousand to 25.0 thousand, the average hourly wage will show an increase from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the unemployment rate will increase to 6.8%.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session, the XAU/USD pair maintains steady growth, testing the 2850.00 mark for an upward breakout, as demand for defensive assets remains high.The market continues to react to the US trade policy: after the announcement of 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1, the Donald Trump administration agreed to postpone their introduction for a month. This happened after Ottawa committed to strengthening border controls, and Mexico City agreed to send 10,000 troops to combat illegal migration and smuggling. Meanwhile, 10.0% tariffs have already been imposed on China, to which Beijing responded with symmetrical measures affecting American coal, LNG, agricultural machinery and automobiles. Now the markets are waiting for possible negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping: if they are successful, duties can be mitigated, but if the parties do not come to an agreement, a new stage of the trade conflict risks disrupting global supply chains.The situation in the futures market remains tense. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the volume of net speculative positions in gold last week amounted to 299.4 thousand, only slightly below 300.8 thousand a week earlier. Investors continue to form new positions, which indicates a high probability of continued volatile movement. The number of bullish contracts in positions secured by real funds reached 242,828 thousand against 12,236 thousand for the bears. At the same time, buyers increased their positions by 2,910 thousand, and sellers — by 6,676 thousand, which indicates continued interest in gold in an uncertain environment.Resistance levels: 2858.06, 2875.00, 2900.00, 2920.00.Support levels: 2845.00, 2830.42, 2807.13, 2790.00.
Feb 05, 2025 Read
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