EUR/USD: investors are watching the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB
The euro is showing moderate growth in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting after a sharp drop the day before: the asset is testing the 1.0440 mark for an upward breakout, while traders expect new triggers for market movements and details about the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. The US currency continues to receive support after recent statements by the head of the White House about the possible imposition of tariffs on imports of semiconductors, pharmaceutical products and steel in order to stimulate domestic production. Recall that from February 1, 25.0% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico will come into force, but the fate of similar measures against the EU and China remains uncertain.
The US macroeconomic statistics published the day before turned out to be contradictory: orders for durable goods in December fell by 2.2% after falling by 2.0% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.8%, and the indicator excluding the transport sector added 0.3% after a decrease of 0.2% in November with a forecast of 0.4%.. The Richmond Federal Reserve's industrial business activity index rose from -10.0 to -4.0 points in January, beating forecasts of -8.0 points.
Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by the results of an ECB survey, according to which in the fourth quarter of 2024, eurozone financial institutions tightened lending conditions for businesses, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming months. Analysts note that borrowing volumes are declining amid weak domestic demand, slowing exports and government spending cuts. The most stringent credit conditions are recorded in commercial real estate, trade, the construction sector and energy-intensive industries.
- Resistance levels: 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554, 1.0600.
- Support levels: 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253.
AUD/USD: inflation in Australia accelerated to 2.5%
The Australian dollar is showing weakness in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, continuing its downward movement in the short term. Quotes are trying to break through the 0.6235 level, and traders are evaluating the latest inflation data in the country.
According to published statistics, in December, the consumer price index rose to 2.5% yoy from 2.3% previously, but remained at 0.2% in quarterly terms, contrary to expectations of growth to 0.3%. At the same time, the overall figure for the year decreased from 2.8% to 2.4%, falling short of the projected 2.5%. Core inflation, calculated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) using the truncated average method, also weakened – from 3.6% to 3.2% yoy with a forecast of 3.3% and from 0.8% to 0.5% for the quarter instead of the expected 0.6%. The continued slowdown in inflationary pressure strengthens the arguments in favor of the RBA's soft monetary policy, which puts pressure on the national currency. An additional negative factor for the Australian dollar was the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index, which dropped to -2.0 points in December after -3.0 points in November, remaining significantly below the average over the past two years.
- Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6274, 0.6300, 0.6330.
- Support levels: 0.6225, 0.6200, 0.6178, 0.6155.
Silver market analysis
After a prolonged hold below the key level of 30.00 in the second half of the month, silver (XAG/USD) quotes strengthened to 30.40, demonstrating a confident potential for further growth.
Market participants are closely following Donald Trump's first steps as president of the United States, especially his plans to impose new duties on imports of raw materials from China, Mexico and Canada. If the tariffs are approved on February 1, it will limit the supply of 62.0% of imported silver to the American market, which could trigger price increases. Additional pressure on the stock sector was exerted by the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) model DeepSeek, which, according to the developers, is not inferior to ChatGPT, but uses cheaper processors and less data. In just a few days after launch, the app became the most popular in the American App Store, which led to a drop in the quotes of technology giants and an increase in demand for protective assets. In conditions of high market uncertainty, silver remains the most attractive of the liquid metals, significantly inferior in value to gold, platinum and palladium, which makes it a promising investment in the current macroeconomic environment.
- Resistance levels: 30.80, 32.50.
- Support levels: 29.90, 28.30.
Crude Oil market analysis
During the morning session, WTI Crude Oil showed a slight decrease, trading around 73.20, after a steady rise the day before. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar caused by Donald Trump's new statements, black gold quotes continued their upward trend. The head of the White House again outlined a tough course on tariff policy, expressing his intention to limit imports of strategically important goods, including computer chips, pharmaceutical products and steel, in order to stimulate domestic production. As early as February 1, 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico are likely to come into force, which will become part of a strategy to combat illegal migration, but the fate of trade restrictions against the EU and China remains uncertain.
An additional factor for the oil market was the risks of disruptions in the supply of raw materials from Libya. According to Bloomberg, the shutdown of the key export terminals Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, through which more than 400.0 thousand barrels pass daily, could reduce the country's exports by a third. If the situation worsens further, Libya risks completely suspending production, which will lead to a loss of 1.4 million barrels per day. Regional conflicts between the internationally recognized government in the west of the country and the eastern authorities, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, continue to destabilize the oil sector. On January 5, representatives of the Oil Crescent movement threatened to block production and exports if the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) did not relocate the headquarters of five energy companies to the eastern region, where the main production facilities and terminals are located.
- Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.
- Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.00, 70.00.