EUR/USD: ZEW report indicates worsening economic conditions in Germany
The EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of a weakening US dollar, maintaining the level of 1.0902 during the Asian session. At the same time, the European currency does not show a significant improvement in its position this week due to economic data indicating continued difficulties in the main EU economies.
The latest report from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) showed that the index of current economic conditions in Germany in July was -68.9 points, which is an improvement from the previous value of -73.8 points, but the indicator of economic sentiment fell to 41.8 points from 47.5 points. The index of economic sentiment in the EU also fell to 43.7 points, reaching the level of April lows. ZEW President Achim Wambach commented on the data, pointing to a deterioration in the economic outlook due to lower exports, political uncertainty in France and uncertainty about the future policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, the ECB household survey showed an increase in loan requests, which indicates expectations of a soft monetary policy. Despite some improvement in inflation indicators, economic stability in the EU remains weak, which prevents a more significant growth of the euro.
- Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0800.
- Resistance levels: 1.0922, 1.1010.
AUD/USD: In Australia, households anticipate an increase in mortgage rates for 2025
During Asian trading, the AUD/USD pair stabilized around the value of 0.6737.
The Australian dollar is strengthening as market participants expect further interest rate hikes in light of the latest data from Westpac Banking Corp., which showed a drop in consumer sentiment to a new low: the index fell by 1.1%, reaching 82.7 points compared with the previous 83.6 points. Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan pointed to a steady decline in sentiment over the past two years, despite significant government attempts to adjust tariffs as part of tax reforms to support low- and middle-income citizens. Concerns about ongoing inflation and a possible further increase in interest rates are once again beginning to put increased pressure on consumer sentiment, neutralizing any positive effects from financial support. The weighted average consumer price index in Australia rose from 3.60% to 4.00% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.80%. In light of this, more households are starting to expect an increase in mortgage rates in the next 12 months, with this figure already reaching almost 60.0% in June. Also, the latest decline in Australian dairy exports by 17.0% and an increase in imports by 19.0% are partly due to China's efforts to increase domestic production through significant public investment, which reduces dependence on imported goods. Labor market data for June will be published on Thursday at 3:30 (GMT+2): unemployment is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.1% and full-time employment growth will slow from 39.7 thousand to 20.0 thousand, which will confirm the stability of the sector in the face of tight monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
- Support levels: 0.6715, 0.6628.
- Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6850.
GBP/USD: UK consumer price index fell to 0.2% in the month to June
The GBP/USD pair stabilized at 1.2968 after a significant rise last week caused by the weakening of the US dollar.
The pound maintains a moderate growth rate in light of the latest inflation data, which reached 2.0% in June, repeating the figure of the previous month and consolidating within 1.5–2.0% for the first time in several years. Excluding the cost of fuel and food, the core price index remained at 3.5% year-on-year, falling from 0.5% to 0.2% month-on-month. The stability of inflation in the target corridor of the Bank of England creates prerequisites for a transition to a softer monetary policy. It is expected that at the meeting on August 1, officials may reduce the interest rate from the current 5.25% to 5.00%.
- Resistance levels: 1.3010, 1.3170.
- Support levels: 1.2910, 1.2740.
USD/JPY: IMF revised Japan's GDP estimate for 2024
The USD/JPY pair is on the verge of exiting the long-term upward channel, falling to the level of 157.81. The slowdown in economic growth in the United States and a decrease in inflation are putting pressure on the US dollar, which may lead to a change in monetary policy.
Tomorrow, traders will closely monitor the updated data on Japan's foreign trade: it is expected that at 01:50 (GMT+2) statistics will be published showing a decrease in exports from 13.5% to 6.4% and imports from 9.5% to 9.3%, which will affect the slowdown in the fall in the trade balance from -1220.1 billion yen to -240.0 billion yen. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made adjustments to Japan's economic growth forecast, reducing it from 0.9% to 0.7% amid problems with car supplies related to the Daihatsu Motor Co. scandal and weak private investment in the first quarter.
- Resistance levels: 159.37, 160.93, 162.50, 164.06.
- Support levels: 157.81, 156.25, 154.68.