Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/TRY, platinum and cocoa for Tuesday, August 27, 2024

USD/CHF: the dollar continues to grow, approaching the peaks of NovemberDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to build up the bullish momentum achieved last week, rising to a maximum on November 22 at 0.8955. However, market participants remain restrained, awaiting the outcome of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most analysts predict an interest rate cut of -25 basis points to 4.50%, which is already partially embedded in current quotes. The main focus will be on the regulator's forecasts for further changes in the cost of borrowing for the next three years, as well as on the uncertainty about the economic strategy of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) put additional pressure on the franc with its unexpected decision to lower the interest rate immediately by -50 basis points, to 0.50%, although the markets expected only -0.25%. In their statement, representatives of the regulator stressed their readiness to respond promptly to the economic situation in order to keep inflation within the target range. In addition, the SNB does not exclude the possibility of currency interventions to maintain the stability of the Swiss franc, which remains an attractive safe haven asset for investors. The updated forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation to 1.1% in 2024 (1.2% was previously expected) and 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%). The GDP growth rate has also been revised: this year the figure will be about 1.0%, and in 2025 it is expected in the range of 1.0–1.5%. Recent statistics put additional pressure on the franc: the consumer price index remained one of the lowest in the eurozone, having been fixed at 0.7% year-on-year in November. The producer and import price index showed a decrease from -0.3% to -0.6% on a monthly basis with a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual indicator changed from -1.8% to -1.5%. The focus of market participants remains the SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Tuesday at 16:00 (GMT+2).Resistance levels: 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827.USD/JPY: the pair is holding near the upper limit of the rangeThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating around 154.20, remaining at local highs from November 25. Buyer activity remains subdued amid expectations of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized at 3.0%. Additional attention of traders is attracted by the uncertainty of further actions of the Bank of Japan and the possible influence of the political agenda of the new American administration on them.Experts believe that if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills the promise of imposing 25% duties on Chinese imports, the Japanese financial authorities may respond by devaluing the yen to maintain export competitiveness. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts expect the Bank of Japan's hawkish rate to continue in January, while 44% predict an interest rate hike at the next meeting on December 19. Nevertheless, some economists believe that the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position, focusing on the dynamics of wages, as the spring wage negotiations will show a clearer picture early next year. The published macroeconomic data from Japan strengthen expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy. In October, orders for machinery products increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 2.1%, while an increase of 1.2% was expected. Also, the Jibun Bank manufacturing index from S&P Global strengthened from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and activity in the service sector showed an increase of 0.3% after a decline of 0.1%.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.50, 156.50, 157.50.Support levels: 153.87, 153.27, 152.85, 151.50.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, consolidating around the 2655.00 mark. Trading activity remains restrained, as investors refrain from opening large positions in anticipation of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most experts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 4.50%, which is already reflected in current prices, so sharp fluctuations in the market in the event of such a decision are not expected. However, the attention of the participants will be focused on the updated long-term forecasts of the regulator on rates, especially given the possible strengthening of monetary policy rigidity due to new import duties proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.The day before, traders were evaluating December data on business activity in the United States. The S&P Global manufacturing sector index fell from 49.7 to 48.3 points, turning out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 49.4 points. At the same time, the indicator for the service sector increased from 56.1 to 58.5 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 55.7 points, which led to the strengthening of the composite index from 54.9 to 56.6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in December fell from 31.2 to 0.2 points, noticeably diverging from market expectations at 12.0 points. Today, investors will be watching the November data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Retail sales are forecast to accelerate growth from 0.4% to 0.5%, while industrial production may add 0.3% after falling 0.3% in October. These indicators may give the markets additional guidance on the further dynamics of gold before the key decisions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2643.41, 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Tuesday, December 17, Arabica coffee quotations on the New York ICE exchange traded at 159.2 cents per pound, showing a decrease of 0.65% compared to the previous session. Market pressure continues to be exerted by signals of a possible increase in supply amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia.The economic situation in Brazil remains the focus of traders' attention. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Arabica coffee harvest in 2024 may grow by 6.2% year-on-year to 41.6 million bags, due to an improvement in the precipitation situation in key regions. However, persistent inflation (the CPI consumer price index in November was 4.6% year-on-year against the forecast of 4.4%) and rising logistics costs continue to limit the volume of exports. In November, coffee exports from Brazil decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 3.2 million bags.The Colombian National Committee of Coffee Producers reported yesterday that production in November decreased by 3.5% due to prolonged rains and problems with the delivery of fertilizers. At the same time, demand for coffee remains stable: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee imports increased by 2.1% to 11.3 million bags in October, reflecting high purchase volumes from the United States and European Union countries. European traders are also optimistic about German retail sales data for November, which will be published this week, and may show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%. Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), a report on coffee stocks in ICE exchange certification warehouses is expected: analysts expect a 1.4% reduction in stocks, which may become a supporting factor for prices. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on forecasts of global coffee production and stocks for 2025 will be released.Resistance levels: 162.0, 164.5.Support levels: 158.0, 155.5.

EUR/USD: the euro is looking for a boost from the 1.0460 levelDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair strengthened by 0.12%, reaching 1.0515, continuing to develop positive dynamics after the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.15%.ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the eurozone economy is facing a slowdown in growth against the backdrop of continuing high inflation. She also said that the regulator's next steps will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Investors' attention was focused on the data on industrial production in the eurozone published on Friday: the index for October showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the negative trend. In addition, Germany presented weak statistics on foreign trade. Exports decreased by 2.8%, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of -2.0%, and imports decreased by 0.1% with an expected -0.6%. Nevertheless, the trade surplus increased to 13.4 billion euros. These data reinforced concerns about a slowdown in the EU's largest economy, which is likely to maintain the ECB's dovish position in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0720, 1.0825.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0290.USD/CHF: the pair is testing the resistance of 0.8920 against the background of the NBSH decisionThe USD/CHF pair is holding at 0.8908, trying to overcome the resistance of 0.8920 after the unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points at once to 0.50%. Most analysts' forecasts suggested a more modest decrease of 25 basis points.The head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, explained that the slowdown in inflation in November turned out to be higher than experts' expectations, which makes it possible to accelerate the achievement of the regulator's monetary goals. At the same time, the weakening of business activity recorded in recent months required a more significant reduction in the cost of borrowing to stimulate the economy. The regulator also stressed its readiness to carry out currency interventions depending on the market situation, noting that a return to negative rates in the near future is unlikely. Against the background of these statements, the Swiss franc weakened, which supported the growth of the USD/CHF pair. This dynamic is developing within the framework of an uptrend that began back in October, and indicates a possible continuation of the strengthening of the US currency in the short term.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/CAD: quotes have stabilized at peak valuesDuring morning trading, the USD/CAD pair remains near the 1.4220 mark, not far from the April 2020 highs reached at the end of last week. The market remains low in activity, as traders expect the start of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System on December 17-18. Most of the participants are confident that the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum, and will also provide comments on the further strategy.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector from S&P Global will be announced. Analysts predict that the values will remain at the same level: 49.7 points and 56.1 points, respectively. In addition, at 22:45 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of Canada, Tifa Macklem, is scheduled to speak. Tomorrow, the market's attention will focus on November inflation data in Canada: according to forecasts, the monthly change in the consumer price index will be 0.0% against the previous value of 0.4%, and the annual indicator will remain at 2.0%. Core inflation is likely to remain at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050.AUD/USD: the decline in business activity in Australia undermines the growth of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is moving in a sideways trend near the 0.6375 level, continuing to show negative dynamics. The slowdown in activity against the background of limited trading in the US dollar could not significantly change the overall picture of the market.The national currency remains under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the interest rate at 4.35%. The December data reflected a decline in business activity: the index in the manufacturing sector fell from 49.4 to 48.2 points, remaining in negative territory for the tenth month in a row, and the indicator in the service sector decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 points. The positive dynamics of the labor market in November somewhat smoothed out the overall negative: employment increased by 35.6 thousand against the forecast of 25.0 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. However, the weak manufacturing sector and limited support from fundamental factors make it difficult for the Australian dollar to rise. The probability of a strengthening of the national currency remains minimal, as the RBA maintains its current course to keep inflation down, avoiding radical changes in monetary policy.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6240.Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6530.

EUR/GBP: ECB ended the year by lowering all three key ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing smooth growth, continuing to strengthen after the bullish momentum recorded the day before. The quotes have retreated from the minimum values of March 2022 and are trying to break through the 0.8260 mark, showing stable upward dynamics.The British economy did not meet analysts' expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) for October. Instead of the expected growth of 0.1%, the indicator remained at -0.1%. Industrial production volumes also disappointed: in annual terms, the decrease was 0.7%, although growth of 0.2% was predicted, and on a monthly basis, the indicator fell by 0.6% instead of the expected 0.3%. This weak statistic increases the uncertainty surrounding the decisions of the Bank of England, whose next meeting is scheduled for December 19.Investors are analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) held the day before, where rates were reduced by 25 basis points. The key rate is now 3.15%, the margin rate is 3.40%, and the deposit rate is 3.00%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that domestic inflation is declining, but remains high, as the adaptation of wages and prices has not yet been completed. Forecasts for economic growth in the region have been revised downward: for 2024, the forecast is 0.7% instead of 0.8%, for 2025 — 1.1% instead of 1.3%, and for 2026 — 1.4% instead of 1.5%. Market participants' expectations are inclined to a more active reduction in ECB rates compared to the US Federal Reserve next year.Resistance levels: 0.8280, 0.8294, 0.8310, 0.8326.Support levels: 0.8259, 0.8238, 0.8223, 0.8200.USD/CHF: restoring the dominance of the American currencyThe USD/CHF pair is consolidating at 0.8927, demonstrating a corrective trend and willingness to continue moving up due to the strengthening of the US dollar.The Swiss National Bank maintains the stability of the franc through a dovish policy. The regulator lowered the interest rate to 0.50%, deviating from forecasts suggesting a decrease to 0.75% by 25 basis points. The regulator's statement emphasizes that the decrease in inflation in November turned out to be better than expected, which accelerates the achievement of monetary policy goals. In addition, the decision is due to low business activity, requiring affordable loans for recovery. Switzerland's economic prospects remain subdued, but analysts predict that GDP growth could reach 1.0–1.5% in 2025. This level will help to stabilize key economic processes and accelerate market recovery.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8890, 0.8780.NZD/USD: household spending in New Zealand remains under pressureThe NZD/USD pair is showing growth, reaching the level of 0.5765, despite the continued strengthening of the US currency.The New Zealand dollar continues to move within the downward trend due to signs of slowing economic activity. According to the National Statistical Service of New Zealand (Stats.nz ), the volume of sales of electronic cards, reflecting the level of consumer spending, did not change in monthly terms in November, and the annual indicator deteriorated from -1.1% to -2.3%, remaining in negative territory for nine consecutive months. Among the key categories, spending growth was observed in the hospitality sector (+1.4%) and fuel purchases (+1.3%). At the same time, the largest decrease was recorded in spending on vehicle maintenance (-0.3%), the purchase of clothing and shoes (-1.0%), as well as durable goods (-0.2%).Resistance levels: 0.5800, 0.5920.Support levels: 0.5740, 0.5630.Platinum market analysisThis week, the XPT/USD pair showed diverse dynamics: starting with an increase in the area of 956.55, the quotes could not hold their positions and rolled back to 931.00, remaining under the influence of uncertainty about the upcoming actions of the US Federal Reserve System.The market expects that at the final meeting of the year, the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. However, the further trajectory of monetary policy raises questions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November, but inflation figures continue to rise. Thus, the consumer price index increased to 2.7%, and the producer price index recorded a third month of growth, reaching 3.0%, which exceeds the target values. Against this background, it is possible to suspend the easing cycle or significantly reduce its pace, which may limit the rate correction to one or two times a year. If, after the US Federal Reserve meeting, signals are heard about the suspension of the "dovish" exchange rate, this will put pressure on safe haven assets, including platinum. On the contrary, statements of readiness to continue lowering rates may help strengthen the position of metals against the dollar.Resistance levels: 968.75, 1000.00, 1031.25.Support levels: 926.70, 906.25, 875.00.

EUR/USD: slowing inflation has increased pressure on the euroThe EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0505 level in morning trading on December 12, showing a moderate decrease of 0.23% from the level of the previous session. The pressure on the European currency remains against the background of ambiguous macroeconomic data from the eurozone and expectations of further comments from the European Central Bank (ECB).Last week, preliminary GDP data for the third quarter were published in the eurozone. Growth was 0.1% on a quarterly basis, which coincided with analysts' expectations, but indicated a slowdown in growth compared with 0.2% in the second quarter. Also, the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.4% on an annual basis, which is slightly higher than forecasts of 2.3%. However, Core inflation (Core CPI) slowed from 4.2% to 4.0%, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressures in the eurozone.In the eurozone labor market, the unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in October, which corresponds to historically low values, but the rate of employment growth slowed to 0.1%. The business activity index (PMI) in the services sector, published by S&P Global, amounted to 50.7 points, indicating the stagnation of the sector. Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the index of business sentiment from the ZEW Institute will be published, where analysts expect a decrease from -5.0 to -7.3 points. Attention will also be focused on the ECB meeting on Thursday, December 14, where the policy on rates may be clarified.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0850.GBP/USD: stability of consumer confidence constrains growthThe GBP/USD pair shows an upward trend, trading near the 1.2240 mark on Thursday, December 12. The exchange rate added 0.42% compared to the level of the previous session, due to the weakening of economic pressure on the pound against the background of published data.Thus, the index of business activity in the UK construction sector (PMI) rose to 52.6 points in November, exceeding analysts' expectations at 51.0 points. Similarly, retail sales in the country showed improvement, increasing by 1.2% on a monthly basis, which exceeded forecasts of 0.8%. Experts attribute the growth to a seasonal increase in demand and the adaptation of the market to current inflationary conditions. However, the GfK consumer confidence index remained unchanged at -28 points, indicating continued consumer caution.In addition, British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said that the government will continue to support small businesses in the face of high interest rates, emphasizing the importance of investments in infrastructure and education. At the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on December 14, investors expect a decision on the key rate, the current level of which is 5.25%. Analysts predict that the rate will remain unchanged, which should stabilize the market. A report on changes in employment in the UK will be published today at 12:30 (GMT+2): analysts expect a decrease in the number of employed by 21.0 thousand, which may put pressure on the pound. In addition, at 16:00 (GMT+2), industrial production data for November will be released, with a projected decrease of 0.2%.Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2350.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian session on Thursday, December 12, silver quotations show an upward trend, trading around the level of 32.07 US dollars per troy ounce, which is 0.75% higher than the level of the previous session.The rise in silver prices is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and expectations of changes in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (Fed). Recent data showed a slowdown in inflation in the United States: the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in November, which is lower than the October figures of 0.3% and 3.5%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, which is in line with analysts' expectations. In such circumstances, investors assume that the Fed may refrain from further raising interest rates in the near future, which puts pressure on the dollar and contributes to higher prices for precious metals.Industrial demand for silver is also influenced by the economic performance of China, one of the largest consumers of this metal. In November, the business activity index (PMI) in the Chinese manufacturing sector amounted to 50.5 points, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 50.2 points and the October figure of 50.1 points. The improvement in business activity in China contributes to an increase in demand for silver used in various industries, which supports the growth of its value.Resistance levels: 32.50, 33.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Thursday, December 12, quotations of coffee (Arabica) on the New York ICE exchange showed growth, reaching 162.5 cents per pound, which is 0.88% higher than the closing level of the previous session. Investors are reacting to news about declining yields in major producing countries amid adverse weather conditions.Weather conditions in Brazil, the largest coffee producer, remain a key factor in supply pressures. According to the latest data, precipitation in key arabica growing regions has been 15-20% below normal over the past two months, which may reduce the total harvest by 7%. Additionally, experts note an increase in the cost of fertilizers and fuel, which increases the cost of production. In turn, November's export figures decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, to 2.67 million bags. The Brazilian Association of Coffee Exporters (CECAFE) predicts a further decline in exports in December due to logistical difficulties and limited stocks.Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on global coffee production and stocks will be published today at 17:30 (GMT+2). Global production is expected to decrease by 4.7% to 167.2 million bags, which may support the current upward trend in the market. Inflation data in Brazil will also be released at 15:00 (GMT+2): analysts predict an increase from 4.8% to 5.1% year-on-year, which may affect coffee export prices.Resistance levels: 165.0, 168.5.

EUR/USD: the market is preparing for the ECB's decision to lower key ratesThe EUR/USD pair shows a multidirectional movement, trading around the 1.0520 mark. Market activity remains low, as traders are waiting for the publication of key data on inflation in the United States, which may set the tone for further dynamics of the instrument.Tomorrow at 15:15 (GMT+2), the European Central Bank (ECB) plans to announce a reduction in three main interest rates — key, margin and deposit — by 25 basis points, bringing them to 3.15%, 3.00% and 3.40%, respectively. These measures are due to a slowdown in growth in major eurozone economies such as Germany and France, where business sentiment continues to remain low. The problems are most acute in the manufacturing and service sectors. However, experts emphasize that the current monetary policy of the ECB has an impact: inflation in the eurozone remains controlled. In November, the consumer price index rose from 2.0% to 2.3% in annual terms, in line with forecasts, and on a monthly basis it decreased by 0.3% after a similar increase a month earlier. The underlying indicator also strengthened to 2.8% year-on-year, despite a decrease in monthly terms. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 17:15 (GMT+2), where she will announce the results of the meeting and, possibly, share forecasts for the further development of the region's economy. Market participants are waiting for her comments on the strategy of the financial authorities against the background of continuing global uncertainty and prospects for subsequent easing of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0554, 1.0600, 1.0629, 1.0665.Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350.USD/CHF: November inflation in the United States may become a driver for the pairThe USD/CHF pair continues to adjust, trading near the 0.8836 mark, against the background of the publication of neutral macroeconomic data.The Swiss consumer price index in November decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and rose from 0.6% to 0.7% year-on-year, remaining at minimum levels among the G10 countries. This is significantly below the target range of 0.0–2.0% indicated by the Swiss National Bank. As a result, experts are increasingly confident in the continuation of monetary policy easing: at the December 12 meeting, the interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Forecasts suggest that by the end of 2025, the rate may drop to the range of 0.00–0.25%.The US dollar remains stable, trading around the 106.00 mark in USDX, in anticipation of November inflation data, which will be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The general consumer price index is expected to grow from 2.6% to 2.7% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is likely to remain at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Such data may support further Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points in December, however, the regulator may consider the possibility of a pause in policy easing early next year, given the risk of accelerating inflation under the influence of economic reforms of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump.Resistance levels: 0.8860, 0.9000.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8680.USD/JPY: the pair maintains positions below the key zone of 157.70–152.00The USD/JPY pair shows sideways dynamics in the area of 151.54, where the yen is trying to strengthen its position against the background of a neutral movement of the US currency and expectations of a tightening policy by the Bank of Japan at the upcoming meeting.After the publication of key macroeconomic indicators, including data on the labor market and inflation, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter reduced its growth rate from 0.5% to 0.3%, which coincided with analysts' expectations and confirmed the stability of the economy. Judging by the latest comments, the Bank of Japan may raise the interest rate at its meeting on December 19. Additionally, the price index for corporate goods in November remained at 0.3% month-on-month, while the annual rate increased from 3.6% to 3.7%. However, preliminary statistics on orders in mechanical engineering showed a sharp slowdown from 9.3% to 3.0%, reflecting the pressure of geopolitical factors and a decrease in foreign demand. The decision of the Bank of Japan will largely depend on the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System scheduled for December 17-18. If the US regulator leaves the rate unchanged or reduces it by 25 basis points, the probability of raising the Japanese rate by a similar amount will increase significantly.Resistance levels: 152.40, 155.40.Support levels: 150.60, 146.90.Oil market analysisDuring morning trading, WTI Crude Oil demonstrates the strengthening of the "bullish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week. Quotes reached the level of 68.70, trying to overcome it against the background of stabilization of the situation in Syria, which previously could have caused disruptions in the supply of raw materials. At the same time, the projected growth in fuel demand in China next year has a restraining effect on the downward trend. Meanwhile, representatives of Saudi Aramco, the largest oil exporter, reported a decrease in supply prices for Asian countries in January 2025 to the lowest values since the beginning of 2021, due to weakening demand from China.Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market expects the publication of inflation data in the United States. Forecasts suggest an increase in the consumer price index in annual terms from 2.6% to 2.7% and on a monthly basis from 0.2% to 0.3%. The basic indicator, excluding volatile categories of goods, may remain at the level of 3.3% year—on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Analysts believe that these data are unlikely to change current expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its December 17-18 meeting. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of such an outcome is estimated at 90.0%.Additionally, the attention of market participants is focused on data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which recorded an increase in oil reserves for the week from 1,232 million to 0.499 million barrels, with a forecast decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Today at 17:30 (GMT+2), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its report: reserves are projected to decrease by 1.3 million barrels after falling by 5.073 million barrels earlier. The EIA also adjusted production forecasts: for 2023, the value was increased by 10 thousand barrels per day to 13.24 million, and for 2025, it was reduced by the same amount to 13.52 million barrels per day. The demand for oil, according to the ministry, this year decreased by 100 thousand barrels per day to 103.03 million, and the forecast for 2025 was reduced by 30 thousand barrels per day to 104.32 million.Resistance levels: 69.06, 69.47, 70.00, 71.00.Support levels: 68.30, 67.53, 67.00, 66.48.

EUR/USD: November inflation in Germany decreased by -0.2%The EUR/USD pair shows a corrective movement, holding in the area of 1.0557. The main driver is the weakening of the US dollar, and market participants are preparing for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), which additionally supports the single currency.According to the data, in November, the consumer price index in Germany showed a decrease from 0.4% to -0.2% on a monthly basis, which led to an increase in the value from 2.0% to 2.2% year-on-year, as expected by experts. The harmonized indicator according to EU standards was adjusted from 0.4% to -0.7%, maintaining the annual mark at 2.4%. The ECB meeting, which will be held on Thursday at 15:15 (GMT+2), may make additional changes: investors expect a rate cut from 3.40% to 3.15%.The neutral behavior of the dollar, which remains near the 106.00 mark in the USDX index, has an additional impact on the dynamics of the pair. Markets are waiting for tomorrow's data on inflation in the United States, which will form the basis for further decisions by the Fed at its meeting on December 18. According to forecasts, the consumer price index will grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis and from 2.6% to 2.7% on an annual basis, while the base indicator will remain at 3.3%. These data may keep pressure on the regulator in favor of further easing of monetary policy, which fuels expectations for a rate cut of -25 basis points.Support levels: 1.0510, 1.0340.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0710.GBP/USD: the market expects the Bank of England rate to remain at 4.75%In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate near the 1.2745 level, while trading volume remains low, as market participants assess the impact of the November employment report in the United States on the further dynamics of the asset.Important macroeconomic statistics for October will be published in the UK on Friday at 09:00 (GMT+2). The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to show an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis after a decrease of 0.1% a month earlier. At the same time, experts predict an improvement in the situation in the industrial sector: output is likely to grow by 0.3% compared with a 0.5% drop in September, and in annual terms the indicator will increase by 0.2% against the previous decline of 1.8%.Last week, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, in an interview with The Financial Times, announced four possible interest rate cuts of 25 basis points if inflation continues to show a slowing trend. According to him, the decrease in price pressure is faster than the regulator's forecasts, but the October inflation statistics turned out to be higher than expected. The consumer price index rose from 1.7% to 2.3% in annual terms, with a forecast of 2.2%, and rose from 0.0% to 0.6% on a monthly basis. Core inflation has also changed: the annual rate accelerated from 3.2% to 3.3%, and the monthly rate increased from 0.1% to 0.4%. Despite this, the market is almost certain that at the meeting on December 19, the regulator will keep the current interest rate at 4.75%.Resistance levels: 1.2776, 1.2817, 1.2860, 1.2900.Support levels: 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600.USD/CHF: bearish dynamics intensifies against the background of an expanding rangeDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the 0.8775 mark. Market participants are waiting for key events that can set the further direction of the asset's movement.On Thursday at 10:30 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the meeting of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points to the level of 0.75%. Since the beginning of the year, the regulator has already adjusted the indicator three times, bringing it to 1.0%, but the head of the SNB, Martin Schlegel, allowed the possibility of a more significant decrease, including a transition to negative values, in order to weaken demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven currency.Meanwhile, the results of a survey conducted by Ernst & Young Global Ltd. Together with the Swiss Retail Federation, they showed that households on average plan to spend about 282 francs on Christmas shopping — similar to last year's values. However, more than half of the 753 respondents admitted that they would limit holiday spending due to rising prices for goods and services.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8865, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700.USD/CAD: the growth momentum of the US currency remains strongThe USD/CAD pair is showing steady strengthening, developing the bullish trend formed last week. Current trading is taking place around 1.4180, and the instrument is aiming for an upward breakout, updating the highs recorded in April 2020.The growth of the US dollar is supported by the strong indicators of the US labor market for November, published on Friday. The country's economy added 227.0 thousand jobs outside the agricultural sector, significantly exceeding the previous result of 36.0 thousand and analysts' expectations of 200.0 thousand. The average hourly wage remained at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.0% on an annual basis, despite the projected decline. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, which was in line with expectations. These data reinforced expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 17-18. At the moment, the probability of such a scenario is estimated at more than 80.0%, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool.The key factor that can influence further dynamics will be the November statistics on inflation in the United States, scheduled for publication tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts assume that the consumer price index will remain at 0.2% on a monthly basis, and will grow from 2.6% to 2.7% on an annual basis. The base values are likely to be fixed at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.3% on an annual basis, which may become an additional driver of the dollar's strengthening.Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350.Support levels: 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000.

USD/CHF: breakout of 0.8920 will open the way to July peaksLast week, the USD/CHF pair tested the support level of 0.8755 during the correction, after which it began a reversal and is trying to develop an upward momentum.The US currency was supported by positive macroeconomic data: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased from 36.0 thousand to 227.0 thousand in November, which significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts of 202.0 thousand. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, which is better than expectations of 0.3%. These indicators strengthen the likelihood of a more cautious approach by the US Federal Reserve to further monetary policy easing.The Swiss franc weakened its position after the publication of inflation data for November. The consumer price index for the month decreased by 0.1%, and in annual terms it was fixed at 0.7%, which turned out to be lower than the projected 0.8%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank may continue to ease monetary policy. The head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, previously announced his readiness to consider the possibility of reducing the interest rate to negative values in order to reduce the attractiveness of the franc as a safe haven asset.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/JPY: Japan's GDP data surpassed forecastsThe USD/JPY pair shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining around the 149.85 mark. The main attention of market participants is focused on macroeconomic data from Japan, which, despite its positive nature, does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the asset.In the third quarter, the Japanese economy showed GDP growth from 0.2% to 0.3% in quarterly terms and from 0.9% to 1.2% annually. However, the GDP deflator slowed from 2.6% to 2.4%, indicating a decrease in inflation expectations, which may complicate the tasks of the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. Business activity indicators also turned out to be higher than expected: the Eco Watchers current situation index rose from 47.5 points to 49.4 points, and the forecast for the development of events reached a similar value, exceeding the previous result of 48.3 points.The data released on Friday turned out to be mixed. The index of leading indicators decreased from 108.9 to 108.6 points, while the index of matching indicators strengthened to 116.5 points. Household spending fell by 1.3% in October, which is better than the projected decline of 2.6%. At the same time, wage growth accelerated to 2.6%, raising expectations about inflation. Against this background, Toyoaki Nakamura, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, stressed the need to take into account the dynamics of salaries and business sentiment of Tankan when making decisions on possible changes in interest rates. Market participants took these statements as a "hawkish" signal, which was reflected in the growth in the yield of 10-year bonds, which increased to 1.065%.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 151.50, 152.22.Support levels: 149.35, 148.64, 148.00, 147.00.Gold market analysisGold shows a smooth decline, falling back to the level of 2640.00 and testing it for a breakdown downwards. Despite the limited number of factors that can radically change the situation in the market, investor activity remains high, which is due to the analysis of Friday's data on the American labor market.Recall that in November, the US economy created 227.0 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector, which significantly exceeds the revised October figures of 36.0 thousand (previously 12.0 thousand) and analysts' forecasts of 200.0 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, in line with expectations, while the average hourly wage remained at 4.0% year-on-year, higher than the forecast of 3.9%, and amounted to 0.4% month-on-month with expectations of 0.3%. Although the data cannot be called unambiguously positive, market participants regarded them as a signal of a possible continuation of the easing of the Federal Reserve's policy at the December meeting.According to the latest data from the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in December rose to 87.0%, whereas a week ago it did not exceed 70.0%. An additional confirmation of positive expectations was the growth of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan from 71.8 points in November to 74.0 points in December, which turned out to be higher than both the results of the previous month and preliminary forecasts of 73.0 points.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00, 2589.61.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are approaching the 67.00 mark, maintaining a downward trend in the global market. This movement is due to the expectations of market participants that OPEC+ will extend the current restrictions on oil production for another three months.The decision to maintain the cuts is related to the cartel's desire to avoid instability in the winter. During this time, the organization's member countries plan to resolve issues related to incomplete fulfillment of obligations, after which the situation with global demand, especially from China, will become clearer. Experts note that the slowdown in China's economic growth this year has had a negative impact on energy consumption. In addition, the country's gradual transition to electric cars continues to reduce demand for traditional hydrocarbons.This week, the attention of market participants will be focused on data on oil reserves. According to forecasts, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) will indicate an increase in reserves by 1,232 million barrels, as it was a week earlier, and statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will show an increase of 1,400 million barrels, which will be a noticeable contrast after a decrease of 5,073 million barrels in the previous period.Resistance levels: 68.10, 71.80.Support levels: 66.50, 63.00.

EUR/USD: economists see a likely ECB rate cut in DecemberThe EUR/USD pair is trading with signs of corrective growth around 1.0574, which is facilitated by the weakening of the US dollar and support from positive data on the eurozone economy.The publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone for the third quarter is expected today at 12:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the quarterly indicator will remain at 0.4%, and the annual indicator will adjust to 0.9% against the previous 0.6%, which indicates the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Meanwhile, investors have already assessed the published statistics on retail sales, which decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, which turned out to be worse than the predicted -0.4%. On an annualized basis, the decrease was 1.9%, which exceeded expectations of 1.7%, but still remains less significant compared to the previous 3.0%. The reduction of industrial orders in Germany to 1.5% in October after 4.2% earlier strengthened the arguments of supporters of the ECB's "dovish" rhetoric. A Reuters poll confirms experts' expectations: the cost of borrowing is likely to be reduced by 25 basis points at the December 12 meeting. Forecasts for 2024 suggest that the regulator will continue to adjust rates, reducing them by a total of 100 basis points next year.Resistance levels: 1.0610, 1.0740.Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0420.AUD/USD: Australia's GDP growth rate was below market expectationsThe AUD/USD pair is trading in a sideways range, holding near the 0.6430 mark, due to weak economic statistics from Australia and a decline in the position of the US dollar. Despite the small activity, investors remain cautious when assessing the current data on the dynamics of the Australian economy.According to published data, in the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 0.3% in quarterly terms, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 0.5%. The annual rate also slowed from 1.0% to 0.8%, falling short of expectations of 1.1%. The indicators of foreign trade showed a more positive trend: exports increased from -4.7% to 3.6%, and imports moved into a positive zone, rising from -2.8% to 0.1%. The trade balance also improved, increasing from 4.532 billion to 5.938 billion Australian dollars. Although positive changes in exports may support the economy, the slowdown in GDP growth remains a key factor in the pressure on the Australian currency. Investors continue to assess the prospects for economic development, waiting for new signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia and additional data that may affect the further dynamics of the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6470, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6260.NZD/USD: the week ends with the weakening of the New Zealand currencyThe NZD/USD pair is correcting downwards, testing the 0.5855 mark, almost leveling out the results of the growth observed on Thursday. Market participants prefer to take profits on long positions before the publication of the November report on the US labor market, forecasts for which remain contradictory.Against the background of the lack of significant news from New Zealand, the main attention of traders was focused on data from China. The index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 50.2 to 50.0 points, while the same indicator in the NBS manufacturing sector rose slightly from 50.1 to 50.3 points. The Caixin indicator, on the contrary, showed a steady increase from 50.3 to 51.5 points, significantly exceeding the projected 50.5 points, which indicates an improvement in conditions for the manufacturing sector.Analysts expect a gradual recovery in the New Zealand real estate market. Over the next two years, housing construction volumes could increase by 5.0%, helped by a 125 basis point reduction in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. At the same time, according to a Reuters poll conducted at the end of November, average rent growth will continue to outpace inflation, which will increase pressure on family budgets as house prices have doubled over the past seven years. Experts predict that in 2025 and 2026, the value of real estate will grow by 5.1% annually, while in 2023 a decrease of 0.3% was recorded. The Reserve Bank had previously assumed a similar recovery, forecasting a 4.0% price increase in 2025 and almost 7.0% in 2026.Resistance levels: 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975.Support levels: 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800, 0.5750.USD/CAD: the former head of the Bank of Canada announced the beginning of a recessionThe USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate increase, aiming to gain a foothold above the 1.4030 level. Trading activity remains subdued, as market participants are waiting for the release of important employment statistics in the United States and Canada, which may set the direction for further dynamics.At a recent webinar organized by Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, former head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz said that the country is showing signs of a technical recession. According to him, despite the absence of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth, a significant increase in migration to Canada has changed the structure of consumption: the growing demand for basic goods contrasts with the reduction in spending by local residents, who are faced with a 30 percent increase in the cost of living amid the recent inflationary surge. Confirming Poloz's words, Statistics Canada last week reported that GDP per capita fell by 0.4% over the last quarter, extending a series of cuts to six in a row. Economists point to the weakness of domestic markets and the high burden on the budget of the population, which confirms the vulnerability of the country's economy.Resistance levels: 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4145, 1.4200.Support levels: 1.4000, 1.3958, 1.3908, 1.3862.