Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold and oil for Wednesday, August 14, 2024

EUR/GBP: minutes of the ECB meeting in the focus of investors' attentionThe EUR/GBP pair is showing a moderate recovery, regaining positions after the "bearish" dynamics observed at the beginning of the week. The exchange rate is testing the 0.8380 level for an upward breakout, while traders are evaluating fresh macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the UK.In Germany, the consumer price index for September remained at 1.6% year-on-year, while the monthly indicator remained unchanged, fixed at 0.0%. The harmonized CPI index increased by 1.8% year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Investors are also analyzing the minutes of the September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), where a reduction in inflationary pressure was discussed. Most ECB representatives called for further easing of monetary policy, despite the fact that inflation remains noticeable. At the same time, experts fear a possible slowdown in economic growth and admit that inflation may remain below the target level of 2.0% for a long time. The market expects that the ECB may cut rates twice more by the end of the year.The economic situation in the UK is also of interest. The country's GDP increased by 0.2% in August after stagnating in the previous month, while industrial production fell by 1.6% year-on-year, exceeding the projected -0.5%. At the same time, the monthly growth was 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The manufacturing sector showed a decrease of 0.3% compared to -2.0% in July, while monthly growth was 1.1%. Business activity in the services sector slowed to 0.1% in August, against 0.6% in July, which was below forecasts of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8433.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8350, 0.8338, 0.8326.USD/TRY: analysts predict a rate cut in JanuaryIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows a recovery after the unstable dynamics of this week, again testing the 34.2800 mark for an upward breakdown and updating the highs from August 28. The pair's movement is due to the publication of inflation data in the United States, which supported the American currency.Experts interviewed by Reuters suggest that the Central Bank of Turkey will change its plans to ease monetary policy. Out of ten respondents, six believe that the rate cut from the current 50.00% will take place in December, while four predict that it will happen in January. Most analysts expect an initial decrease of 250 basis points (to 47.50%), and one of the experts suggests a reduction of 500 basis points at once. These forecasts are in line with the expectations of economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Industrial production data for August will be published today, October 11, in Turkey at 10:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous month, which may strengthen the lira against the background of positive economic signals. At 12:00 (GMT+2), employment data will also be released, which will help assess the overall state of the labor market in Turkey and may affect expectations for inflation and the future policy of the Central Bank. In addition, tomorrow, October 12, at 11:00 (GMT+2), a report on Turkey's current account balance for August is expected to be published, which, according to forecasts, will show a deficit of $3.5 billion. This event may put pressure on the Turkish lira if the actual data exceed expectations, which indicates an increase in foreign economic risks for the country.Resistance levels: 34.3000, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/CHF: the decline in US inflation turned out to be weaker than expectedThe USD/CHF pair is at 0.8571 and shows potential for further growth, while the Swiss franc remains one of the most stable currencies among developed economies, thanks to stable macroeconomic indicators.The Swiss National Bank, according to a statement by its vice-chairman Antoine Martin, aims to continue reducing interest rates until the end of the year. Martin noted that key inflation and economic growth targets have been achieved, which allows the regulator to consider the possibility of another reduction by 25 basis points. This year, the cost of borrowing has already been adjusted three times, and in September 2024, the consumer price index reached the lowest level in the last three years — 0.8%. According to Martin, in the long term, the bank intends to return to negative interest rates, which, as before, will be an important incentive to attract investments into the economy.At the same time, the US dollar is at 102.60 on the USDX index, which is the highest since mid-August. A decrease in inflation in the United States from 2.5% to 2.4% in annual terms, while an increase in the basic consumer price index to 3.3% did not put significant pressure on the dollar. This dynamic may signal a further reduction in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, but with minimal changes — by 25 basis points. Investors expect the Fed to make two such cuts by the end of the year, but San Francisco Fed Governor Mary Daley noted that the final decision would depend on incoming data, and the pace of adjustments could be adjusted.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8750.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8400.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed dynamics, remaining around the $75.00 per barrel mark. In the previous session, the instrument showed a noticeable increase, largely due to the publication of US inflation data for September.A significant factor supporting the quotes is the high demand for fuel in the United States, which increased against the background of a major hurricane that struck the state of Florida. In response to the approaching disaster, many oil companies have taken precautions by closing some platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. For example, Chevron Corp. It stopped the operation of one of its drilling rigs, which produced about 65 thousand barrels of oil per day.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide additional support for oil. Recall that on October 1, Iran fired more than 180 missiles in the direction of Israel, which was in response to the Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Lebanon, which killed one of the leaders of the Hezbollah group. These events raise concerns in the market about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is a strategic route for oil transportation: up to 21% of the world's daily oil consumption passes through it.Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00.Support levels: 74.00, 73.00, 72.17, 71.60.

EUR/CAD: euro is under pressure due to weak economic indicatorsThe EUR/CAD pair is trading around 1.5008 as of October 10, showing a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous session. The pair is trying to stay above the 1.5000 level, despite some uncertainty in the economic performance of both countries and global currency markets.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure, as data from Germany showed a 0.8% decline in industrial production in August. In addition, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone services sector also fell to 47.4 points, which signals a slowdown in economic activity. The European Central Bank, in turn, continues to support a tighter monetary policy, although recent statements by ECB members have signaled the possibility of suspending rate hikes, which causes concern among investors.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is also facing challenges. Last week, employment data showed a 0.4% increase in the number of jobs, which exceeded expectations. However, wage growth remains at 3.8% year-on-year, which may strengthen inflation expectations and push the Bank of Canada to further tighten monetary policy. The Canadian dollar has not yet received significant support, which keeps the EUR/CAD pair relatively stable.Resistance levels: 1.5070, 1.5100.Support levels: 1.4950, 1.4900.USDX: dollar is developing a short-term bullish trendIn the morning, the USDX index holds at 102.93, maintaining a strong short-term "bullish" trend, which contributes to the renewal of local highs recorded on August 16.The growth of the index is supported by revised expectations regarding the pace of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against the background of the expected monetary policy adjustments of other leading central banks, this creates a competitive advantage for the US dollar. The attention of market participants was focused on the recently published minutes of the September FOMC meeting. Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the importance of a cautious approach to lowering rates, which reinforced expectations of a smoother reduction. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points in November is estimated at about 90.0%. As for the December meeting, analysts also forecast a decrease of 25 basis points, but forecasts remain less certain. The latest data on inflation in the United States, measured through the index of personal consumer spending, shows that in August the annual inflation rate was 2.2%, while the base indicator, excluding energy and food products, reached 2.7%. Labor market data also indicate some weakening: the average wage growth in the non-agricultural sector in July and August was lower than in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.Resistance levels: 102.75, 103.00, 103.30, 103.60.Support levels: 102.45, 102.23, 102.00, 101.67.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading around 30.61 as of October 10, which is 0.43% higher compared to the previous session, reflecting a slight increase. Support is observed against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, which usually has a positive impact on dollar-denominated metals, including silver.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. In particular, inflation data (CPI) for September is expected to be published today, which may significantly affect the Fed's interest rate decisions and, accordingly, the value of silver. The consumer price index is expected to slow down, however, if the actual data turns out to be higher than forecast, this may strengthen expectations of further rate hikes and put pressure on silver. In addition, the recent decline in Chinese incentives has had an impact on industrial metals, limiting their growth, including silver, which remains in the range of $30.3–$30.6 per ounce. Tomorrow, October 11, China will present a report on the trade balance for September. Given that China is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, such data may affect the mood in the silver market. Export growth is forecast, which could increase demand for metals and support the price of silver, especially against the background of China's recent efforts to stimulate domestic demand and strengthen the economy.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.77, 31.15, 31.56.Support levels: 30.50, 30.00, 29.73, 29.35.Oil market analysisWTI crude oil is trading at about $74.40 per barrel as of October 10, showing stable growth against the background of supportive demand factors. The key driver of price movement remains a decrease in gasoline inventories in the United States, which caused positive expectations and led to higher prices. Gasoline inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels during the week, indicating high demand and/or reduced supply, supporting oil price growth in the short term.Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an updated forecast according to which global oil demand will continue to grow and will amount to about 104.3 million barrels per day by 2025. The agency's current report highlights that demand growth is driven by a recovery in economic activity and significant consumption in non-OECD countries, which is likely to support oil prices over the coming months.Resistance levels: $75.65 and $76.30.Support levels: $73.70 and $72.50.

EUR/TRY: euro is strengthening amid the weak economic situation in TurkeyThe EUR/TRY pair is trading at 37.71 as of October 8, which is 0.66% lower compared to the previous trading session. The instrument shows a decrease against the background of weak economic data from Turkey and increased volatility in global markets. Market participants are assessing the impact of the current macroeconomic situation, including changes in inflation and monetary policy of the Turkish Central Bank.The economic situation in Turkey remains tense, given the high inflation rates and the weakness of the national currency. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in September was 61.5%, which continues to put pressure on the purchasing power of the population and investor confidence in the lira. The central bank of Turkey recently raised the interest rate to 35% in order to combat inflation, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, who had predicted a level of 30-32%. However, despite the tightening of monetary policy, the stability of the Turkish economy remains in question amid political uncertainty and lack of investor confidence in the effectiveness of current measures.The situation in the eurozone also has an impact on the EUR/TRY pair. The latest data on the consumer price index (CPI) showed a slowdown in inflation from 4.2% to 3.8%, which confirms a gradual decrease in price pressure in the region. At the same time, the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for September showed a value of 49.1 points, which remains below the level of 50, indicating a continued decline in manufacturing activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a cautious approach to changing monetary conditions and, most likely, will not take decisive measures to reduce the rate until the end of the year, which also affects the exchange rate dynamics of the pair.Resistance levels: 38.12, 38.50.Support levels: 37.50, 37.00.USD/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan will keep its tough rhetoric until DecemberThe USD/JPY pair shows restrained dynamics, remaining near the level of 148.00. The day before, the instrument declined moderately, retreating from the local highs set on August 16. This movement became a natural correction after the significant strengthening of the US dollar last week.While the Fed, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have begun to ease their monetary policies after aggressive tightening cycles to curb inflation, the BOJ's approach remains contrasting. Japan has been struggling with deflation and economic stagnation for a long time. In the second quarter, the national economy showed signs of recovery, helped by an increase in consumer and business spending. In August, core inflation reached 2.8%, rising for the fourth month in a row, and real wages have been rising for two months in a row, which boosted domestic consumption. As a result, companies have begun to shift the increased labor costs, which may create conditions for further rate increases. However, the Bank of Japan warned that many small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing difficulties, unable to provide sufficient profits to index salaries. Analysts do not expect the regulator to raise the rate at the October meeting, but the probability of such a move in December increases, provided that stable economic indicators remain.Today, the market's attention is focused on data from Japan. In August, wage growth slowed to 3.0% from the previous 3.4%, while a decrease to 3.1% was expected. Household spending decreased by 1.9%, while in July the indicator increased by 0.1%, against the forecast of -2.6%. The index of the current situation from Eco Watchers in September decreased from 49.0 to 47.8 points, and the index of forecasts — from 50.3 to 49.7 points.Resistance levels: 148.21, 149.50, 150.50, 151.50.Support levels: 147.00, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 2640.00. Market activity remains moderate as investors continue to analyze the September report on the U.S. labor market, published last Friday.The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, compared with the previous growth of 159.0 thousand, while expectations were at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, which is higher than the forecast of 3.8%, while the monthly change showed a slowdown from 0.5% to 0.4%, which is slightly higher than expectations of 0.3%. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. In general, these data confirm the stability of the American economy, allowing the Federal Reserve System to take its time with further monetary policy easing. At the same time, the market assumes that the Fed may cut the rate by 25 basis points in November and December of this year.Additionally, the demand for gold is supported by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. After Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory, the country's military and political leadership promised retaliatory actions. This has increased tensions in the region and contributes to maintaining XAU/USD quotes at current levels.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2640.00, 2623.84, 2613.83, 2600.00.Oil market analysisIn the Asian session, Brent crude oil prices are showing a pullback from the maximum reached on August 13 at 81.00, and are testing the 79.35 level for a downward breakdown in anticipation of new drivers for further movement.Today, information from China put pressure on the quotes. At the briefing of the State Committee for Development and Reform (NDRC), investors did not receive specific incentives and support measures. Representatives of the committee expressed confidence that the country's economy will continue to recover and achieve its goals. However, the lack of concrete steps raised doubts among market participants about the sustainability of the current rally, as many expected more detailed actions from Beijing.Prior to that, oil prices recovered at the fastest pace in the last two years, amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts at Clearview Energy Partners LLC presented several possible scenarios in an interview with Bloomberg. In the event of the imposition of economic sanctions against Iran by the United States and its allies for missile attacks on Israel, oil may rise in price by $ 7.0 per barrel. In the case of retaliatory actions with damage to Iranian energy facilities, prices may rise by another $13.0. In addition, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked — the most important route for transporting about 30% of the world's raw materials — the cost is expected to rise to $ 13.0–$28.0 per barrel.Resistance levels: 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 83.14.Support levels: 79.00, 77.86, 77.00, 76.05.

EUR/USD: The ECB is considering a rate cut on October 17thThe EUR/USD pair is at 1.0968. Although recent macroeconomic indicators from the eurozone have looked relatively stable, the European currency is showing a downward trend.The number of representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) supporting President Christine Lagarde's policy of further lowering interest rates continues to grow. In particular, Mario Centeno, a member of the Board of Governors, noted that the labor market is significantly weakening, which may affect the level of investment and slow economic growth below normal. He added that the number of open vacancies decreased by 20% compared to two years ago, and the number of new employees fell by 10% compared to the maximum of the second quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, he stressed that inflation is under control, and regulators will strive to keep it at the target level of 2%. His colleague Francois Villeroy de Galot also confirmed the possibility of easing monetary policy, saying that the expected slowdown in inflation makes an interest rate adjustment at the October 17 meeting almost inevitable, although questions remain about its size. Important comments on this issue are expected to be made today when ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speak. Rate changes may amount to more than 25 basis points, which in the short term will create pressure on the euro.On Monday, investors expect the release of statistics on retail sales in the eurozone for August: forecasts suggest a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on data on production orders in Germany, which fell by 5.8% in August after rising by 3.9% in the previous month, while expectations were at the level of a reduction of only 2%.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1120.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0830.USD/CHF: the unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.6% in SeptemberIn the Asian session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight decline, deviating from the highs set on August 20, which were updated last week thanks to the support of American economic statistics.By the end of September, the unemployment rate in Switzerland increased from 2.5% to 2.6%, which came as a surprise to the market, which did not expect changes or predicted only a slight decrease. At the same time, the consumer price index decreased from 1.1% to 0.8% in annual terms and by 0.3% compared to zero in August, which increases the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank will again decide to reduce the already low interest rate. However, on Tuesday, the head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, noted that inflation in the country is supported by rising prices for services and rent. In addition, wage growth remains below the upper limit of the central bank's inflation target range, set at 0.0–2.0%.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8673, 0.8700.Support levels: 0.8570, 0.8541, 0.8517, 0.8500.USD/CAD: bulls are developing a positive trend for the US dollarThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" trend established last week: quotes are testing the level of 1.3585, being near the local highs of September 19.The US dollar is significantly supported by the September labor market report published on Friday. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 159.0 thousand. Analysts expected an increase of only 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.8%, although the indicator slowed from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. It is worth noting that according to the instrument of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in November is now less than 30.0%, while the week before last, before the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, this figure exceeded 60.0%.At the end of the week, a report on the Canadian labor market is expected to be published: employment is projected to grow from 22.1 thousand to 34.5 thousand, the average hourly wage will remain in the range of 4.9–5.0% and the unemployment rate at 6.6%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, announced his intention to expand the Board of Governors from six to seven members, introducing a new position of an external employee who will participate in voting on interest rate adjustments. This step is aimed at taking into account the difficult economic situation and will add new views and skills to the work of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3569, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.NZD/USD: the rate is expected to decrease by 50 basis points from the RBNZThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a sharp decline last week, which led to an update of local lows since September 12. Quotes are currently testing the 0.6160 level for the possibility of an upward breakdown, while the macroeconomic situation remains fairly stable.Experts suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75% at its meeting on October 9. Despite the lack of fresh inflation data, the July figures showed a more significant decrease than expected, amounting to 3.3%. At the same time, the base index exceeded the forecast of 5.4%. The decline in economic activity continues to put pressure on the regulator, pushing for an early approach of interest rates to the target 3.00%, according to analysts at ING Research. The latest RBNZ estimates suggest that the consumer price index will be 2.3%, and the base index will be 5.1% in the third quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6177, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254.Support levels: 0.6145, 0.6124, 0.6100, 0.6085.

EUR/GBP: the drop in business activity in the eurozone puts pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is near the 0.8550 level as of October 3, showing a slight correction after the recent rise. This value reflects the sideways movement of the pair, which is 0.1% less than in the previous trading session. During the current session, quotes are being adjusted against the background of weak data from the eurozone and the UK, but there is still potential for further growth if the pair holds above the key support level of 0.8550.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Published data on the business activity index (PMI) in September showed a drop in the manufacturing sector to 43.4 points, which is lower than the forecast of 43.6 points. This reinforces expectations of a possible further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), especially in the context of persistent inflation. It is expected that the ECB may lower the interest rate by the end of the year if economic activity does not recover. Retail sales data for August will be published in the eurozone today at 11:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to show a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous month. These data may increase pressure on the ECB in light of a possible easing of monetary policy. In addition, at 12:30 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the German construction sector for September will be published, the projected value is 45.5 points, which indicates a decrease in activity in the sector.The situation in the UK also does not contribute to the strengthening of the pound. The latest GDP data for the third quarter showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, which is below expectations. Inflation remains above the target level of 4.6%, which forces the Bank of England to keep high interest rates at 5.25%, despite the slowdown in the economy. Investors expect a decision on rates in the coming months, which could have a significant impact on the EUR/GBP pair. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production for August will be presented in the UK. A decrease of 0.1% is expected compared to the previous month, which may put pressure on the pound. At 10:00 (GMT+2), the GfK consumer confidence index for October will be released, the indicator is expected to improve from -25 to -23 points.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8650.Support levels: 0.8550, 0.8500.NZD/USD: housing prices in New Zealand continue to fallThe NZD/USD pair is showing a noticeable decline, developing a powerful "bearish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week: the instrument is approaching the 0.6235 mark, trying to overcome it amid expectations of new factors for movement.Statistics from New Zealand have not yet had a significant impact on the pair's behavior: the published ANZ commodity price index fell from 2.1% to 1.8% in September, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the issue of possible monetary policy easing. Earlier in the week, investors' attention was focused on the data on business optimism: the indicator rose from 50.6 to 60.9 points, and the forecast of business activity from the National Bank increased from 37.1% to 45.3%. The real estate market continues to decline in prices, which has been going on for seven months, although the rate of decline has slowed: prices fell by only 0.5%, due to a decrease in mortgage rates, as reported by CoreLogic NZ. Such dynamics indicate a decrease in purchasing power against the background of an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which negatively affects household incomes. The situation may change if, at the upcoming meeting on October 9, the Reserve Bank continues to adhere to the "dovish" course, which has already led to a decrease in the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6254, 0.6280, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6221, 0.6200, 0.6177, 0.6158.USD/JPY: Dollar strengthens, updating local peaksThe USD/JPY pair remains near the 146.60 mark, having reached new local highs since August 20 against the background of the release of American macroeconomic statistics. According to a report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in September, the employment rate in the private sector increased from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, surpassing the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 120.0 thousand jobs. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the final data on the US labor market for September will be published, where it is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will remain at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average annual hourly wage growth is projected at 3.8%, and the monthly figure may slow slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%, which may indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%.The yen is under pressure from recent statistics from Japan. In September, the manufacturing business activity index from Jibun Bank fell from 53.9 to 53.1 points, contrary to analysts' expectations of maintaining the previous level. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the regulator will closely monitor volatility in the markets before making decisions on monetary policy. He stressed that the economic prospects for the United States and the world remain uncertain, and markets are unstable, but inflation is gradually approaching the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, Ueda did not rule out the possibility of an interest rate increase if the economic dynamics and inflation forecasts are confirmed. At the same time, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, spoke out against raising rates in the current conditions. Japanese Economy Minister Resi Akazawa also called for caution when adjusting policy parameters, noting that current rates at 0.25% are below world standards and that efforts should be aimed at combating deflation.Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.21, 149.50, 150.50.Support levels: 146.00, 145.00, 144.00, 143.35.AUD/USD: weak indicators of exports and services put pressure on the Australian dollarThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, trading near the level of 0.6860 against the background of strengthening the position of the US dollar.The Australian currency weakened after the release of disappointing macroeconomic data. Exports decreased from 0.3% to -0.2%, while imports decreased from -0.6% to -0.2%, which led to a slight change in the trade balance from 5.636 billion to 5.644 billion Australian dollars. The index of business activity in the service sector in September fell from 52.5 to 50.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the predicted value of 50.6 points.Earlier, the attention of market participants was attracted by data from American International Group Inc. (AIG) on the state of business activity in key sectors of the Australian economy. Despite the fact that the indicator in the construction industry improved from -38.1 to -19.8 points, it remains in the negative zone, which signals ongoing difficulties in the economy. In the manufacturing sector, the situation also worsened: the index fell from -30.8 to -33.6 points, indicating continuing problems amid the long-term policy of tightening monetary conditions pursued by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thus, the current economic data is putting pressure on the Australian dollar, while the US dollar is receiving support due to strong domestic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.6904, 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6852, 0.6751.

USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflationThe USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalystsDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meetingThe USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.Gold market analysisYesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, 2378.00.

EUR/USD: flat amid expectations of September inflation in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair is showing a recovery after yesterday's decline, when quotes updated local lows from September 24. At the moment, the pair is testing the 1.1140 level, trying to break it up, amid expectations of the publication of key macroeconomic data.Analysts' forecasts remain restrained: the index of business activity in the eurozone manufacturing sector from S&P Global is likely to remain at 44.8 points, and the German index may remain at 40.3 points. Inflation data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2). Annual price growth is projected to slow from 2.2% to 1.9%, while core inflation, excluding volatile components, is likely to remain at 2.8%. Falling inflation may become an additional argument in favor of easing the ECB's monetary policy, and it is predicted that the bank may reduce the interest rate by 0.25% next month. Previously, it was thought that the regulator would wait until December, but the latest data may accelerate its actions.Against the background of German data published yesterday, it became known that the consumer price index decreased from 1.9% to 1.6% in annual terms, and monthly inflation remained at 0.0%, which somewhat disappointed market expectations. At the same time, in the United States, the Chicago business activity index rose to 46.6 points, although it remained below 50, indicating a slowdown in growth.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300.Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0964.GBP/USD: the former head of the Bank of England pointed to the reason for the increase in inflationThe GBP/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the 1.3375 mark. Despite the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the UK and the USA, market activity remains subdued.Investors were closely watching the UK GDP data for the second quarter. In annual terms, the growth rate decreased from 0.9% to 0.7%, and the quarterly dynamics slowed from 0.6% to 0.5%. These weak indicators may prompt the Bank of England to further ease monetary policy, especially against the background of the fact that the US Federal Reserve already cut the rate by 50 basis points in September.Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by a drop in the retail price index of the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), which fell by 0.6% in September after a previous decrease of 0.3%. Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which is expected to amount to 51.5 points. Investors are also studying the statement of the former head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who stressed that the delay in tightening monetary policy contributed to a sharp increase in inflation in the country. However, in his opinion, the current situation has stabilized, which will allow controlling the growth of consumer prices in the future.Resistance levels: 1.3435, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.AUD/NZD: Australian retail sales may strengthen the dollar's positionThe AUD/NZD pair is at 1.0938 as of the trading session on October 1. This reflects a slight decrease of about 0.32% compared to the previous session. Market participants expect that quotes will continue to fluctuate against the background of the publication of economic data from Australia and New Zealand.The situation in Australia continues to put pressure on the AUD rate. The recent statement of support for the economy of China, which is Australia's largest trading partner, had a positive impact on the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, despite a slight improvement in the Chinese Business Activity Index (PMI), the Chinese economy still faces slowdown risks, which may have a restraining effect on Australian exports. In the Australian domestic market, important data on retail sales and construction permits are expected to be released, which, according to forecasts, may indicate a slowdown in activity in these sectors. Retail sales data for September will be published in Australia today, October 1, at 11:30 (GMT+2). Economists forecast an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may reflect the sustainability of consumer spending, despite the recent increase in interest rates. At the same time, data on construction permits will be released, where a decrease of 2.5% on a monthly basis is expected, indicating a slowdown in activity in the construction industry.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is showing mixed results. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has completed a cycle of rate hikes, leaving them at 5.5%. This has eased the pressure of inflation, but GDP growth remains low and recession risks persist. As a result, currency traders are considering lowering rates in the coming months, which could weaken the NZD. Nevertheless, interest in the New Zealand dollar remains on the background of its high interest rate and attractiveness to investors. Tomorrow, October 2, at 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish the NZIER Business Confidence index for the third quarter of 2024. Analysts expect an improvement in the indicator after a significant decline in the previous quarter, which may indicate a recovery in business activity. Also at 04:00 (GMT+2), data on export and import prices will be released, which will give a more complete picture of the country's trade balance.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.Gold analysisGold is trading at $2,643.50 per ounce as of October 1, showing an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous session. The price of gold has stabilized in the range of 2624-2666 USD, continuing to hold positions due to continuing geopolitical risks and expectations of a softer monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). If the price overcomes the level of 2670 USD, it is possible to move to the level of 2700 USD, however, if it drops below 2623 USD, a rollback to 2600 USD is likely.The economic situation in the United States remains an important factor for gold prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 0.75–1% in 2024, which will make gold a more attractive asset for investors. The publication of the ISM manufacturing business activity index for September today at 18:00 (GMT+2) is expected to reach 47.6 points, which is below the threshold of 50, signaling a reduction in production activity. Additional attention will be paid to the data on the number of open vacancies (JOLTS), which will also be released at 18:00 and will amount to 7.64 million, which may have an impact on the dollar and, accordingly, on the dynamics of gold.Geopolitical risks continue to support gold prices. The intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as strained relations between Russia and Western countries, create additional incentives for investors to choose gold as a safe asset. These events, together with changes in monetary policy and the weakening of the dollar, may continue to support the growth of gold prices in the coming months.Resistance levels: 2660, 2686, 2700.Support levels: 2623, 2600, 2578.

EUR/TRY: inflation in Turkey remains high, the lira is losing groundThe EUR/TRY pair is trading around 38.23 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.03% compared to the previous session. This is due to investors' expectations regarding the decisions of the European Central Bank and monetary policy in Turkey. The lira continues to be under pressure due to macroeconomic instability and high inflation in Turkey.The economic situation in Turkey remains difficult: inflation in the country slowed to 51.97% in August, but these are still high values that negatively affect consumer demand and overall economic activity. The Turkish Central Bank maintains a policy of tough rate hikes to combat inflation, which has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing to 30%. However, investors are still concerned about the prospects of a further slowdown in economic growth in the country.On the part of the eurozone, the continued weakening of economic activity is putting pressure on the euro. The business activity indices (PMI) for the eurozone showed values below 50 points (48.9), which indicates a decrease in activity in key sectors of the economy. Inflation also remains above target, which limits the European Central Bank's ability to quickly ease monetary policy.Resistance levels: 38.50, 38.75.Support levels: 37.85, 37.60.GBP/JPY: economic data from the UK and Japan are holding back growthThe GBP/JPY pair is trading at 183.75 on September 25, showing slight losses after a 2% increase in the previous three days. The current consolidation is related to expectations of important economic data from the UK and Japan. The pair declined by 0.12% compared to the last session, which is due to a correction after a recent rise.The economic situation in the UK remains ambiguous. The latest data on the labor market show a decrease in the number of vacancies, but the employment rate remains relatively stable. Inflation in the country is still above the target level of the Bank of England, which forces investors to take into account the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy. In the latest report on the consumer price index (CPI), inflation reached 6.7%, which supports expectations of further rate increases.In Japan, the market remains under pressure due to the slowdown in the economy. The index of business activity in the service sector (PMI) fell to 50.5 points, indicating stagnation. At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintains extremely low interest rates to stimulate the economy, which makes the yen weaker against the pound. In addition, the market is awaiting a report on the consumer price index in Japan, which may have a further impact on the country's monetary policy.Resistance levels: 184.20, 185.00.Support levels: 182.50, 181.80.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar weakens amid slowing domestic demandThe AUD/NZD pair was trading around 1.0890 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous trading session. This growth was supported by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates at the current level, which strengthened the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the weakness of the New Zealand economy and the expected decline in export demand due to domestic economic difficulties are putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.The Australian economy continues to receive support from Chinese incentives. In particular, China's recent measures to reduce the reserve rate for banks by 0.50% have freed up about $142 billion for lending, which has led to increased demand for Australian goods such as iron ore and coal. This had a positive impact on the AUD rate. Moreover, the RBA hinted that a rate cut is unlikely in the near future, despite the slowdown in economic growth.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is facing a slowdown in growth. Inflation in the country is expected to remain high despite measures to contain it, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to take further action on rates. Moreover, the latest data on domestic demand in New Zealand also show a weakening, which contributes to the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0820.Crude Oil market analysisAs of September 25, the price of WTI crude oil is trading at $81.46 per barrel, which shows a slight decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to market adjustments after a sharp rise in prices in previous weeks amid expectations of supply cuts and uncertainty amid OPEC+ actions.The economic situation in the United States and China continues to have a significant impact on world oil prices. In the United States, the latest publication of data on oil reserves showed an increase, which led to a decrease in expectations about the shortage of supply in the market. Meanwhile, in China, a slowdown in economic growth is holding back demand for oil, despite government incentives. China's recent measures to reduce bank reserves to stimulate lending, including in the industrial sector, may temporarily support demand for commodities.In addition, market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming data on the personal consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States, which may have an impact on market sentiment and the future dynamics of the dollar, which, in turn, may affect oil prices. A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on commodity markets, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $82.50 and $84.00.Support levels: $80.00 and $78.75.