Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/EUR on Wednesday, June 5th

EUR/CAD: Canadian inflation and oil affect the pair's exchange rateAs of October 17, the EUR/CAD pair is trading near the level of 1.4937 and shows a slight decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous session. Markets remain waiting for key economic publications on both the euro and the Canadian dollar, which gives the pair low volatility and cautious sentiment among traders.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure amid a slowdown in manufacturing activity. In September, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone manufacturing sector fell to 43.4 points, reflecting weak business confidence, while in the services sector the indicator was 48.7 points. Forecasts for the upcoming data point to a possible further decline, which reinforces expectations of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, the latest inflation data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) remained at 2.7%, while the overall figure was 1.8% year-on-year. Experts suggest that a slowdown in inflation may push the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which will be considered at the upcoming meeting.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is showing growth in the energy sector. Oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, remain high, supporting the Canadian dollar. In September, the inflation rate in Canada was 3.8% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.2%. The Bank of Canada is expected to decide at its next meeting to keep the interest rate at 5%, but rising inflation may force the regulator to reconsider its plans. Additionally, the market is waiting for the publication of retail sales data in Canada, which, according to forecasts, may show an increase of 0.4% in September.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/CHF: the Australian currency is declining amid weak unemployment dataThe AUD/CHF pair at the time of the trading session on October 17 shows a slight decrease and is trading at 0.5940, which is 0.32% less than in the previous session. The pair is under pressure against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic statistics from Australia and stable data on Switzerland.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. The published data on the labor market turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations: the unemployment rate increased from 3.6% to 3.7% in September, while analysts expected it to remain at 3.6%. The number of employed decreased by 9.6 thousand, which also became a negative signal for the economy. In addition, the consumer confidence index decreased by 2.3%, indicating a decrease in confidence in the national economy. These data may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further monetary easing at the next meeting.From the Swiss side, the economic situation looks more stable. The latest inflation data showed a decrease in the consumer price index from 1.5% to 1.3% year-on-year, which confirmed the downward trend in inflationary pressure. This strengthens the Swiss franc, as the market expects the Swiss National Bank to continue its current monetary policy without significant changes. In addition, Switzerland's external trade balance continues to remain positive, maintaining the national currency at a high level.Resistance levels: 0.5980, 0.6020.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5860.Copper market analysisAs of October 17, 2024, the price of copper shows moderate growth, correcting after a decrease the day before. Trading opened at $8,000 per tonne and is moving towards $8,080, which is 1.00% higher compared to the previous session.The rise in copper prices is supported by a number of economic factors. First of all, macroeconomic data from China, the world's largest copper consumer, had a positive impact. Thus, industrial production in September increased by 4.5% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. The business activity index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector also showed an increase to 51.2 points, indicating an expansion of activity in the sector. In addition, China announced measures to boost domestic consumption and exports, which supports demand for copper and other commodities. The copper market also faces risks related to the geopolitical situation in South America, especially in Chile, the largest copper producer. Amid protests and possible strikes in the mining sector, there are concerns about the supply of metal to international markets.Resistance levels: 8,100, 8,200.Support levels: 7,950, 7,900.Oil market analysisAt the October 17 trading session, Brent crude oil is trading with upward dynamics, again breaking the $90 per barrel mark, which is 0.5% higher compared to the last session. The main factors supporting growth remain concerns about supply constraints due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, where tensions in the sector have escalated, including the most important transport hubs in the Persian Gulf region.The economic situation in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, adds to the uncertainty in the market. According to the latest EIA report released on October 8, crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.6 million barrels, reflecting steady domestic demand and affecting the prospects for price growth. At the same time, expectations for global economic growth remain mixed, as data from China show a slowdown in economic activity: The country's GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, below forecasts, which also prompted a revision of oil forecasts. In particular, Barclays lowered its forecast for Brent to $93 per barrel for 2024, citing declining demand in both China and the United States.Resistance levels: $75.50, $76.80.Support levels: $73.00, $71.80.

EUR/JPY: The Bank of Japan maintains a soft policy amid lower inflationThe EUR/JPY pair is trading around 163.10 as of October 14, which is 0.01% higher compared to the previous trading session. After volatile fluctuations at the beginning of the week, the instrument showed stabilization as traders continue to monitor the economic data of the Eurozone and Japan, assessing the prospects for changes in monetary policy in both countries.In the Eurozone, the economic situation remains under pressure due to a combination of weak industrial growth and low inflation expectations. According to the latest data published by the German Federal Statistical Office, industrial production increased by 1.6% in August, which is higher than forecast and gives a positive signal to the markets. Nevertheless, economic activity in the euro area remains weak: preliminary inflation forecasts for October show a level of 2.2%, which is lower than the average values observed in the first half of the year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to take additional stimulus measures, given that economic growth remains below expected. In September, the ECB announced its intention to keep interest rates at the current level to stimulate demand and investment, but analysts do not rule out further easing if inflation remains below the 2.0% target and GDP continues to grow weakly.In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy, while continuing to use low interest rates to stimulate the economy. September data showed a decrease in inflation to 2.5% compared with 3.0% in August, indicating a slowdown in the growth of prices for goods and services. Although inflation in the country is still higher than in previous years, its decline eases the pressure on the central bank to change the current policy course. Japan's main macroeconomic indicators are showing stability, but economists are paying attention to a slowdown in economic activity, which may require additional stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan. Recently, the head of the Bank of Japan noted that the regulator will continue to monitor the situation and is ready to maintain a soft policy to prevent further slowdown in economic growth.Resistance levels: 164.00, 164.80.Support levels: 162.50, 161.90.GBP/NZD: pound is declining, waiting for further signals from the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/NZD pair is trading at 2.0495 as of October 14, showing a steady downward trend with a decrease of 0.23% from the previous session. The market is influenced by the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar, supported by New Zealand's domestic economic data, and expectations for easing UK monetary policy.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The published data showed an increase in unemployment to 4.2%, which is slightly higher than market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) remained at 6.7% in September, signaling continued pressure on inflation, which may require adjustments in the Bank of England's policy. However, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further interest rate increases will depend on the data, and expressed caution about accelerating the tightening policy against the backdrop of an unstable economy. In turn, the indicator of business activity in the service sector (PMI) amounted to 49.3 points, which is lower than the level of the previous month (50.2 points), indicating a decrease in activity in the sector.In New Zealand, the index of business activity in construction increased by 2.1%, which is higher than forecast. The increase in activity is due to increased demand in the infrastructure construction sector, as well as improved performance in the agro-industrial complex. The Central Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue to maintain a steady interest rate as the country's inflation rate fell to 4.9% in annual terms. Against the background of these indicators, the position of the New Zealand dollar remains strong, which puts pressure on the GBP/NZD pair.Resistance levels: 2.0550, 2.0600.Support levels: 2.0450, 2.0400.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading near the $23.40 level as of October 14, showing an upward trend of 0.42% above the previous session. Against the background of recent economic events, this growth reflects investors' interest in defensive assets, as financial markets are increasingly responding to macroeconomic uncertainty and currency market volatility.Economic and political factors affecting silver include significant support from growing industrial demand. An important driver is the development of green technologies and solar energy, which actively use silver in the production of panels and other components. According to experts, the demand for silver in these sectors has reached 1.2 billion ounces and is projected to continue to grow. In addition, the political situation in the United States and the ongoing discussion of changes in Federal Reserve interest rates have an impact on the dollar. In anticipation of a rate cut by the end of the year, investors view silver as a profitable hedge against inflationary risks and a possible weakening of the dollar.In the global perspective, the silver market is also influenced by other factors, including uncertainty in the mining sector. Leading producers such as Mexico and Peru are reporting lower production, which limits supply in the market. According to Citigroup estimates, under current conditions, silver prices could reach $30 per ounce in the second half of 2024. In addition, investors who pay attention to the ratio of gold and silver see potential for growth, as silver remains relatively undervalued compared to gold. In the coming months, it is expected that with an increase in demand for industrial silver and an improvement in market sentiment, silver will be able to approach the level of $30 per ounce.Resistance levels: $24.10, $25.00.Support levels: $22.80, $21.50.Coffee market analysisCoffee prices on October 14, 2024 stabilized around $ 182.40 per pound, which is 0.52% higher than the previous day. This growth is explained by global economic factors associated with a reduction in the supply of coffee on the world market. The main catalyst for the dynamics of coffee prices is a reduction in yields in key producing countries such as Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. In addition, logistical problems and rising transportation costs add pressure to prices.In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, harvest expectations remain below average due to the dry weather in September. According to the latest data, the arabica harvest for 2024 is expected to reach 52 million bags, which is 5% lower than the previous forecast. Moreover, prices for fertilizers and logistics have increased significantly, which further increases the cost of production. Against this background, the Central Bank of Brazil makes comments on inflationary pressures related to agriculture. Interest rates are expected to remain high until the end of the year, which will limit manufacturers' access to loans to expand their capacities.In the global economy, the impact of geopolitical events also has an impact on demand for commodities, including coffee. Increased political instability in the Middle East and trade disputes between China and the United States are contributing to increased uncertainty in financial markets, which affects the demand for coffee in importing countries such as the United States and European Union countries. Nevertheless, demand from China remains stable, as the popularity of coffee drinks among Chinese consumers continues to grow.Resistance levels: 185.00, 187.50.Support levels: 180.00, 178.00.

EUR/GBP: minutes of the ECB meeting in the focus of investors' attentionThe EUR/GBP pair is showing a moderate recovery, regaining positions after the "bearish" dynamics observed at the beginning of the week. The exchange rate is testing the 0.8380 level for an upward breakout, while traders are evaluating fresh macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the UK.In Germany, the consumer price index for September remained at 1.6% year-on-year, while the monthly indicator remained unchanged, fixed at 0.0%. The harmonized CPI index increased by 1.8% year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Investors are also analyzing the minutes of the September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), where a reduction in inflationary pressure was discussed. Most ECB representatives called for further easing of monetary policy, despite the fact that inflation remains noticeable. At the same time, experts fear a possible slowdown in economic growth and admit that inflation may remain below the target level of 2.0% for a long time. The market expects that the ECB may cut rates twice more by the end of the year.The economic situation in the UK is also of interest. The country's GDP increased by 0.2% in August after stagnating in the previous month, while industrial production fell by 1.6% year-on-year, exceeding the projected -0.5%. At the same time, the monthly growth was 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The manufacturing sector showed a decrease of 0.3% compared to -2.0% in July, while monthly growth was 1.1%. Business activity in the services sector slowed to 0.1% in August, against 0.6% in July, which was below forecasts of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8433.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8350, 0.8338, 0.8326.USD/TRY: analysts predict a rate cut in JanuaryIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows a recovery after the unstable dynamics of this week, again testing the 34.2800 mark for an upward breakdown and updating the highs from August 28. The pair's movement is due to the publication of inflation data in the United States, which supported the American currency.Experts interviewed by Reuters suggest that the Central Bank of Turkey will change its plans to ease monetary policy. Out of ten respondents, six believe that the rate cut from the current 50.00% will take place in December, while four predict that it will happen in January. Most analysts expect an initial decrease of 250 basis points (to 47.50%), and one of the experts suggests a reduction of 500 basis points at once. These forecasts are in line with the expectations of economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Industrial production data for August will be published today, October 11, in Turkey at 10:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous month, which may strengthen the lira against the background of positive economic signals. At 12:00 (GMT+2), employment data will also be released, which will help assess the overall state of the labor market in Turkey and may affect expectations for inflation and the future policy of the Central Bank. In addition, tomorrow, October 12, at 11:00 (GMT+2), a report on Turkey's current account balance for August is expected to be published, which, according to forecasts, will show a deficit of $3.5 billion. This event may put pressure on the Turkish lira if the actual data exceed expectations, which indicates an increase in foreign economic risks for the country.Resistance levels: 34.3000, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/CHF: the decline in US inflation turned out to be weaker than expectedThe USD/CHF pair is at 0.8571 and shows potential for further growth, while the Swiss franc remains one of the most stable currencies among developed economies, thanks to stable macroeconomic indicators.The Swiss National Bank, according to a statement by its vice-chairman Antoine Martin, aims to continue reducing interest rates until the end of the year. Martin noted that key inflation and economic growth targets have been achieved, which allows the regulator to consider the possibility of another reduction by 25 basis points. This year, the cost of borrowing has already been adjusted three times, and in September 2024, the consumer price index reached the lowest level in the last three years — 0.8%. According to Martin, in the long term, the bank intends to return to negative interest rates, which, as before, will be an important incentive to attract investments into the economy.At the same time, the US dollar is at 102.60 on the USDX index, which is the highest since mid-August. A decrease in inflation in the United States from 2.5% to 2.4% in annual terms, while an increase in the basic consumer price index to 3.3% did not put significant pressure on the dollar. This dynamic may signal a further reduction in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, but with minimal changes — by 25 basis points. Investors expect the Fed to make two such cuts by the end of the year, but San Francisco Fed Governor Mary Daley noted that the final decision would depend on incoming data, and the pace of adjustments could be adjusted.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8750.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8400.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed dynamics, remaining around the $75.00 per barrel mark. In the previous session, the instrument showed a noticeable increase, largely due to the publication of US inflation data for September.A significant factor supporting the quotes is the high demand for fuel in the United States, which increased against the background of a major hurricane that struck the state of Florida. In response to the approaching disaster, many oil companies have taken precautions by closing some platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. For example, Chevron Corp. It stopped the operation of one of its drilling rigs, which produced about 65 thousand barrels of oil per day.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide additional support for oil. Recall that on October 1, Iran fired more than 180 missiles in the direction of Israel, which was in response to the Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Lebanon, which killed one of the leaders of the Hezbollah group. These events raise concerns in the market about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is a strategic route for oil transportation: up to 21% of the world's daily oil consumption passes through it.Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00.Support levels: 74.00, 73.00, 72.17, 71.60.

EUR/CAD: euro is under pressure due to weak economic indicatorsThe EUR/CAD pair is trading around 1.5008 as of October 10, showing a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous session. The pair is trying to stay above the 1.5000 level, despite some uncertainty in the economic performance of both countries and global currency markets.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure, as data from Germany showed a 0.8% decline in industrial production in August. In addition, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone services sector also fell to 47.4 points, which signals a slowdown in economic activity. The European Central Bank, in turn, continues to support a tighter monetary policy, although recent statements by ECB members have signaled the possibility of suspending rate hikes, which causes concern among investors.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is also facing challenges. Last week, employment data showed a 0.4% increase in the number of jobs, which exceeded expectations. However, wage growth remains at 3.8% year-on-year, which may strengthen inflation expectations and push the Bank of Canada to further tighten monetary policy. The Canadian dollar has not yet received significant support, which keeps the EUR/CAD pair relatively stable.Resistance levels: 1.5070, 1.5100.Support levels: 1.4950, 1.4900.USDX: dollar is developing a short-term bullish trendIn the morning, the USDX index holds at 102.93, maintaining a strong short-term "bullish" trend, which contributes to the renewal of local highs recorded on August 16.The growth of the index is supported by revised expectations regarding the pace of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against the background of the expected monetary policy adjustments of other leading central banks, this creates a competitive advantage for the US dollar. The attention of market participants was focused on the recently published minutes of the September FOMC meeting. Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the importance of a cautious approach to lowering rates, which reinforced expectations of a smoother reduction. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points in November is estimated at about 90.0%. As for the December meeting, analysts also forecast a decrease of 25 basis points, but forecasts remain less certain. The latest data on inflation in the United States, measured through the index of personal consumer spending, shows that in August the annual inflation rate was 2.2%, while the base indicator, excluding energy and food products, reached 2.7%. Labor market data also indicate some weakening: the average wage growth in the non-agricultural sector in July and August was lower than in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.Resistance levels: 102.75, 103.00, 103.30, 103.60.Support levels: 102.45, 102.23, 102.00, 101.67.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading around 30.61 as of October 10, which is 0.43% higher compared to the previous session, reflecting a slight increase. Support is observed against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, which usually has a positive impact on dollar-denominated metals, including silver.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. In particular, inflation data (CPI) for September is expected to be published today, which may significantly affect the Fed's interest rate decisions and, accordingly, the value of silver. The consumer price index is expected to slow down, however, if the actual data turns out to be higher than forecast, this may strengthen expectations of further rate hikes and put pressure on silver. In addition, the recent decline in Chinese incentives has had an impact on industrial metals, limiting their growth, including silver, which remains in the range of $30.3–$30.6 per ounce. Tomorrow, October 11, China will present a report on the trade balance for September. Given that China is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, such data may affect the mood in the silver market. Export growth is forecast, which could increase demand for metals and support the price of silver, especially against the background of China's recent efforts to stimulate domestic demand and strengthen the economy.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.77, 31.15, 31.56.Support levels: 30.50, 30.00, 29.73, 29.35.Oil market analysisWTI crude oil is trading at about $74.40 per barrel as of October 10, showing stable growth against the background of supportive demand factors. The key driver of price movement remains a decrease in gasoline inventories in the United States, which caused positive expectations and led to higher prices. Gasoline inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels during the week, indicating high demand and/or reduced supply, supporting oil price growth in the short term.Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an updated forecast according to which global oil demand will continue to grow and will amount to about 104.3 million barrels per day by 2025. The agency's current report highlights that demand growth is driven by a recovery in economic activity and significant consumption in non-OECD countries, which is likely to support oil prices over the coming months.Resistance levels: $75.65 and $76.30.Support levels: $73.70 and $72.50.

EUR/TRY: euro is strengthening amid the weak economic situation in TurkeyThe EUR/TRY pair is trading at 37.71 as of October 8, which is 0.66% lower compared to the previous trading session. The instrument shows a decrease against the background of weak economic data from Turkey and increased volatility in global markets. Market participants are assessing the impact of the current macroeconomic situation, including changes in inflation and monetary policy of the Turkish Central Bank.The economic situation in Turkey remains tense, given the high inflation rates and the weakness of the national currency. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in September was 61.5%, which continues to put pressure on the purchasing power of the population and investor confidence in the lira. The central bank of Turkey recently raised the interest rate to 35% in order to combat inflation, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, who had predicted a level of 30-32%. However, despite the tightening of monetary policy, the stability of the Turkish economy remains in question amid political uncertainty and lack of investor confidence in the effectiveness of current measures.The situation in the eurozone also has an impact on the EUR/TRY pair. The latest data on the consumer price index (CPI) showed a slowdown in inflation from 4.2% to 3.8%, which confirms a gradual decrease in price pressure in the region. At the same time, the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for September showed a value of 49.1 points, which remains below the level of 50, indicating a continued decline in manufacturing activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a cautious approach to changing monetary conditions and, most likely, will not take decisive measures to reduce the rate until the end of the year, which also affects the exchange rate dynamics of the pair.Resistance levels: 38.12, 38.50.Support levels: 37.50, 37.00.USD/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan will keep its tough rhetoric until DecemberThe USD/JPY pair shows restrained dynamics, remaining near the level of 148.00. The day before, the instrument declined moderately, retreating from the local highs set on August 16. This movement became a natural correction after the significant strengthening of the US dollar last week.While the Fed, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have begun to ease their monetary policies after aggressive tightening cycles to curb inflation, the BOJ's approach remains contrasting. Japan has been struggling with deflation and economic stagnation for a long time. In the second quarter, the national economy showed signs of recovery, helped by an increase in consumer and business spending. In August, core inflation reached 2.8%, rising for the fourth month in a row, and real wages have been rising for two months in a row, which boosted domestic consumption. As a result, companies have begun to shift the increased labor costs, which may create conditions for further rate increases. However, the Bank of Japan warned that many small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing difficulties, unable to provide sufficient profits to index salaries. Analysts do not expect the regulator to raise the rate at the October meeting, but the probability of such a move in December increases, provided that stable economic indicators remain.Today, the market's attention is focused on data from Japan. In August, wage growth slowed to 3.0% from the previous 3.4%, while a decrease to 3.1% was expected. Household spending decreased by 1.9%, while in July the indicator increased by 0.1%, against the forecast of -2.6%. The index of the current situation from Eco Watchers in September decreased from 49.0 to 47.8 points, and the index of forecasts — from 50.3 to 49.7 points.Resistance levels: 148.21, 149.50, 150.50, 151.50.Support levels: 147.00, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 2640.00. Market activity remains moderate as investors continue to analyze the September report on the U.S. labor market, published last Friday.The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, compared with the previous growth of 159.0 thousand, while expectations were at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, which is higher than the forecast of 3.8%, while the monthly change showed a slowdown from 0.5% to 0.4%, which is slightly higher than expectations of 0.3%. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. In general, these data confirm the stability of the American economy, allowing the Federal Reserve System to take its time with further monetary policy easing. At the same time, the market assumes that the Fed may cut the rate by 25 basis points in November and December of this year.Additionally, the demand for gold is supported by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. After Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory, the country's military and political leadership promised retaliatory actions. This has increased tensions in the region and contributes to maintaining XAU/USD quotes at current levels.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2640.00, 2623.84, 2613.83, 2600.00.Oil market analysisIn the Asian session, Brent crude oil prices are showing a pullback from the maximum reached on August 13 at 81.00, and are testing the 79.35 level for a downward breakdown in anticipation of new drivers for further movement.Today, information from China put pressure on the quotes. At the briefing of the State Committee for Development and Reform (NDRC), investors did not receive specific incentives and support measures. Representatives of the committee expressed confidence that the country's economy will continue to recover and achieve its goals. However, the lack of concrete steps raised doubts among market participants about the sustainability of the current rally, as many expected more detailed actions from Beijing.Prior to that, oil prices recovered at the fastest pace in the last two years, amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts at Clearview Energy Partners LLC presented several possible scenarios in an interview with Bloomberg. In the event of the imposition of economic sanctions against Iran by the United States and its allies for missile attacks on Israel, oil may rise in price by $ 7.0 per barrel. In the case of retaliatory actions with damage to Iranian energy facilities, prices may rise by another $13.0. In addition, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked — the most important route for transporting about 30% of the world's raw materials — the cost is expected to rise to $ 13.0–$28.0 per barrel.Resistance levels: 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 83.14.Support levels: 79.00, 77.86, 77.00, 76.05.

EUR/USD: The ECB is considering a rate cut on October 17thThe EUR/USD pair is at 1.0968. Although recent macroeconomic indicators from the eurozone have looked relatively stable, the European currency is showing a downward trend.The number of representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) supporting President Christine Lagarde's policy of further lowering interest rates continues to grow. In particular, Mario Centeno, a member of the Board of Governors, noted that the labor market is significantly weakening, which may affect the level of investment and slow economic growth below normal. He added that the number of open vacancies decreased by 20% compared to two years ago, and the number of new employees fell by 10% compared to the maximum of the second quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, he stressed that inflation is under control, and regulators will strive to keep it at the target level of 2%. His colleague Francois Villeroy de Galot also confirmed the possibility of easing monetary policy, saying that the expected slowdown in inflation makes an interest rate adjustment at the October 17 meeting almost inevitable, although questions remain about its size. Important comments on this issue are expected to be made today when ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speak. Rate changes may amount to more than 25 basis points, which in the short term will create pressure on the euro.On Monday, investors expect the release of statistics on retail sales in the eurozone for August: forecasts suggest a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on data on production orders in Germany, which fell by 5.8% in August after rising by 3.9% in the previous month, while expectations were at the level of a reduction of only 2%.Resistance levels: 1.1010, 1.1120.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0830.USD/CHF: the unemployment rate in Switzerland rose to 2.6% in SeptemberIn the Asian session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight decline, deviating from the highs set on August 20, which were updated last week thanks to the support of American economic statistics.By the end of September, the unemployment rate in Switzerland increased from 2.5% to 2.6%, which came as a surprise to the market, which did not expect changes or predicted only a slight decrease. At the same time, the consumer price index decreased from 1.1% to 0.8% in annual terms and by 0.3% compared to zero in August, which increases the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank will again decide to reduce the already low interest rate. However, on Tuesday, the head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, noted that inflation in the country is supported by rising prices for services and rent. In addition, wage growth remains below the upper limit of the central bank's inflation target range, set at 0.0–2.0%.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8673, 0.8700.Support levels: 0.8570, 0.8541, 0.8517, 0.8500.USD/CAD: bulls are developing a positive trend for the US dollarThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, developing the "bullish" trend established last week: quotes are testing the level of 1.3585, being near the local highs of September 19.The US dollar is significantly supported by the September labor market report published on Friday. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 159.0 thousand. Analysts expected an increase of only 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.8%, although the indicator slowed from 0.5% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. It is worth noting that according to the instrument of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in November is now less than 30.0%, while the week before last, before the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, this figure exceeded 60.0%.At the end of the week, a report on the Canadian labor market is expected to be published: employment is projected to grow from 22.1 thousand to 34.5 thousand, the average hourly wage will remain in the range of 4.9–5.0% and the unemployment rate at 6.6%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, announced his intention to expand the Board of Governors from six to seven members, introducing a new position of an external employee who will participate in voting on interest rate adjustments. This step is aimed at taking into account the difficult economic situation and will add new views and skills to the work of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3569, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.NZD/USD: the rate is expected to decrease by 50 basis points from the RBNZThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a sharp decline last week, which led to an update of local lows since September 12. Quotes are currently testing the 0.6160 level for the possibility of an upward breakdown, while the macroeconomic situation remains fairly stable.Experts suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75% at its meeting on October 9. Despite the lack of fresh inflation data, the July figures showed a more significant decrease than expected, amounting to 3.3%. At the same time, the base index exceeded the forecast of 5.4%. The decline in economic activity continues to put pressure on the regulator, pushing for an early approach of interest rates to the target 3.00%, according to analysts at ING Research. The latest RBNZ estimates suggest that the consumer price index will be 2.3%, and the base index will be 5.1% in the third quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6177, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254.Support levels: 0.6145, 0.6124, 0.6100, 0.6085.

EUR/GBP: the drop in business activity in the eurozone puts pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is near the 0.8550 level as of October 3, showing a slight correction after the recent rise. This value reflects the sideways movement of the pair, which is 0.1% less than in the previous trading session. During the current session, quotes are being adjusted against the background of weak data from the eurozone and the UK, but there is still potential for further growth if the pair holds above the key support level of 0.8550.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Published data on the business activity index (PMI) in September showed a drop in the manufacturing sector to 43.4 points, which is lower than the forecast of 43.6 points. This reinforces expectations of a possible further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), especially in the context of persistent inflation. It is expected that the ECB may lower the interest rate by the end of the year if economic activity does not recover. Retail sales data for August will be published in the eurozone today at 11:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to show a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous month. These data may increase pressure on the ECB in light of a possible easing of monetary policy. In addition, at 12:30 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the German construction sector for September will be published, the projected value is 45.5 points, which indicates a decrease in activity in the sector.The situation in the UK also does not contribute to the strengthening of the pound. The latest GDP data for the third quarter showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, which is below expectations. Inflation remains above the target level of 4.6%, which forces the Bank of England to keep high interest rates at 5.25%, despite the slowdown in the economy. Investors expect a decision on rates in the coming months, which could have a significant impact on the EUR/GBP pair. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production for August will be presented in the UK. A decrease of 0.1% is expected compared to the previous month, which may put pressure on the pound. At 10:00 (GMT+2), the GfK consumer confidence index for October will be released, the indicator is expected to improve from -25 to -23 points.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8650.Support levels: 0.8550, 0.8500.NZD/USD: housing prices in New Zealand continue to fallThe NZD/USD pair is showing a noticeable decline, developing a powerful "bearish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week: the instrument is approaching the 0.6235 mark, trying to overcome it amid expectations of new factors for movement.Statistics from New Zealand have not yet had a significant impact on the pair's behavior: the published ANZ commodity price index fell from 2.1% to 1.8% in September, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the issue of possible monetary policy easing. Earlier in the week, investors' attention was focused on the data on business optimism: the indicator rose from 50.6 to 60.9 points, and the forecast of business activity from the National Bank increased from 37.1% to 45.3%. The real estate market continues to decline in prices, which has been going on for seven months, although the rate of decline has slowed: prices fell by only 0.5%, due to a decrease in mortgage rates, as reported by CoreLogic NZ. Such dynamics indicate a decrease in purchasing power against the background of an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which negatively affects household incomes. The situation may change if, at the upcoming meeting on October 9, the Reserve Bank continues to adhere to the "dovish" course, which has already led to a decrease in the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6254, 0.6280, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6221, 0.6200, 0.6177, 0.6158.USD/JPY: Dollar strengthens, updating local peaksThe USD/JPY pair remains near the 146.60 mark, having reached new local highs since August 20 against the background of the release of American macroeconomic statistics. According to a report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in September, the employment rate in the private sector increased from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, surpassing the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 120.0 thousand jobs. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the final data on the US labor market for September will be published, where it is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will remain at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average annual hourly wage growth is projected at 3.8%, and the monthly figure may slow slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%, which may indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%.The yen is under pressure from recent statistics from Japan. In September, the manufacturing business activity index from Jibun Bank fell from 53.9 to 53.1 points, contrary to analysts' expectations of maintaining the previous level. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the regulator will closely monitor volatility in the markets before making decisions on monetary policy. He stressed that the economic prospects for the United States and the world remain uncertain, and markets are unstable, but inflation is gradually approaching the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, Ueda did not rule out the possibility of an interest rate increase if the economic dynamics and inflation forecasts are confirmed. At the same time, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, spoke out against raising rates in the current conditions. Japanese Economy Minister Resi Akazawa also called for caution when adjusting policy parameters, noting that current rates at 0.25% are below world standards and that efforts should be aimed at combating deflation.Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.21, 149.50, 150.50.Support levels: 146.00, 145.00, 144.00, 143.35.AUD/USD: weak indicators of exports and services put pressure on the Australian dollarThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, trading near the level of 0.6860 against the background of strengthening the position of the US dollar.The Australian currency weakened after the release of disappointing macroeconomic data. Exports decreased from 0.3% to -0.2%, while imports decreased from -0.6% to -0.2%, which led to a slight change in the trade balance from 5.636 billion to 5.644 billion Australian dollars. The index of business activity in the service sector in September fell from 52.5 to 50.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the predicted value of 50.6 points.Earlier, the attention of market participants was attracted by data from American International Group Inc. (AIG) on the state of business activity in key sectors of the Australian economy. Despite the fact that the indicator in the construction industry improved from -38.1 to -19.8 points, it remains in the negative zone, which signals ongoing difficulties in the economy. In the manufacturing sector, the situation also worsened: the index fell from -30.8 to -33.6 points, indicating continuing problems amid the long-term policy of tightening monetary conditions pursued by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thus, the current economic data is putting pressure on the Australian dollar, while the US dollar is receiving support due to strong domestic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.6904, 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6852, 0.6751.

USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflationThe USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalystsDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meetingThe USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.Gold market analysisYesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, 2378.00.