USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflation
The USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.
The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.
- Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.
- Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.
USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalysts
During Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.
The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.
- Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.
- Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.
USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meeting
The USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.
The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.
- Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.
- Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.
Gold market analysis
Yesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.
Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.
- Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.
- Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, 2378.00.
GBP/USD: the regulator urged to maintain tight control over the marketThe pound is holding near 1.2445 during Asian trading: investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of key economic data from the United States.On Thursday, the UK will present a report on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 and December: analysts predict an acceleration in economic growth in annual terms from 0.9% to 1.1%, but expect a decrease of 0.1% on a quarterly basis after a zero change earlier. December figures may show an increase of 0.1%, while industrial production is likely to continue to decline: it is expected to decrease by 2.1% year—on-year after -1.8% a month earlier, and a correction of 0.2% is possible month-on-month after -0.4% in November.The statements of the representatives of the Bank of England remain in the focus of traders' attention. Board member Catherine Mann stressed that her vote for a rate cut at the last meeting did not mean a similar decision in March. She still advocates maintaining a tight monetary policy and considers a neutral rate level in the range of 3.00–3.50%. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mann noted that it will be more difficult for businesses to raise prices in 2025, as the tax burden and rising unemployment reduce the purchasing power of Britons. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, on Tuesday warned politicians against excessive liberalization of financial markets, saying that finding a balance between economic growth and the stability of the system remains a difficult task.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.AUD/USD: White House criticizes Australia for impact on aluminum marketThe Australian dollar shows mixed dynamics in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near the local highs of January 24. Quotes are testing the 0.6290 support, but investors prefer a wait-and-see attitude, keeping an eye on key macroeconomic data that can set the direction of movement.So, at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market expects the publication of the January report on inflation in the United States. Experts predict that the core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) will accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, and slow down from 3.2% to 3.1% on an annual basis. The overall indicator may adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%, settling at 2.9%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's next speech to Congress will take place at 17:00 (GMT+2), but analysts do not expect new signals from him regarding monetary policy.Meanwhile, trade tensions between Australia and the United States are intensifying. Peter Navarro, President Donald Trump's trade adviser, said that aluminum supplies from Australia are damaging the American industry, justifying the introduction of 25.0% tariffs on metal imports. The Australian Government continues to seek exclusion from the list of countries subject to the new restrictions. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed hope that the Australian steel and aluminum industry would not come under sanctions pressure, despite harsh statements from the White House. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Australia ranks 17th among steel suppliers and 8th in terms of aluminum imports into the country over the past 10 years. In 2024, 223.0 thousand tons of steel and 83.0 thousand tons of aluminum were exported to the United States.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6330, 0.6372, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6274, 0.6250, 0.6225, 0.6200.Silver market analysisThe corrective decline of the XAG/USD pair has stalled at the resistance of 32.30, and quotes are ready for an upward breakout amid changes in US trade policy.President Donald Trump announced the introduction of 25.0% duties on steel and aluminum imports from all countries without exception, while production transferred to the United States is exempt from them. This creates the prerequisites for an increase in the cost of metals, as the new tariffs will take effect on March 12. According to media reports, the next step of the White House may be to impose restrictions on the supply of copper, which has already caused an increase in prices for raw materials. Yesterday, gold updated its historical high at 2942.00, while silver reached its December peaks at 32.30.According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in silver increased from 44.4 thousand to 50.4 thousand. Buyers continue to dominate the market, strengthening their positions. The balance of transactions with real collateral is 57,040 thousand contracts against 19,670 thousand for sellers. During the week, the bulls increased their assets by 10,178 thousand contracts, while the bears reduced their positions by 0.874 thousand. This indicates an increased demand for defensive assets in the face of rising trading risks.Resistance levels: 32.30, 34.20, 35.50.Support levels: 30.00, 27.80.Crude Oil market analysisDuring morning trading, WTI Crude Oil shows mixed dynamics, holding at 72.75 and the highs recorded on February 3. The main support for the quotes is provided by a reduction in the supply of raw materials from Russia: according to media reports, production volumes in January were below the established OPEC+ quotas, and it remains unclear whether the country will be able to increase production in the coming months.Pressure on the asset is exerted by a recent report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which recorded a sharp increase in commercial fuel reserves: in the week to February 7, the figure increased from 5.025 million to 9.043 million barrels, while analysts expected only 2.8 million. Today at 5:30 p.m. (GMT+2), market participants are awaiting the publication of official statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which predicts a decrease from 8.664 million to 2.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy has revised its forecast for oil production excluding other liquid hydrocarbons, raising the estimate for 2025 from 13.55 million to 13.59 million barrels per day, and for 2026 from 13.62 million to 13.73 million.The situation in the oil market remains unstable: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions on WTI Crude Oil decreased from 264.1 thousand to 230.3 thousand contracts last week. At the same time, there is a decrease in interest from sellers: their combined positions among manufacturers decreased from 449,211 thousand to 394,260 thousand. Buyers, on the contrary, increased their activity, increasing contracts by 2,714 thousand, while the "bears" reduced their positions by 20,748 thousand. This indicates a possible further volatility of quotations.Resistance levels: 73.00, 74.00, 75.00, 76.00.Support levels: 72.15, 71.62, 71.00, 70.00. 
AUD/USD: White House tightens import duties on metalsThe AUD/USD pair is showing sideways dynamics at the level of 0.6272, reacting to the moderate growth of the US currency and ambiguous macroeconomic indicators from Australia.Statistics on the construction sector in December turned out to be mixed: the total number of approved projects increased by 0.7% after falling by 3.4% a month earlier, reaching 15,174 thousand, but the figure for private homes decreased by 3.0%, falling to 8,715 thousand. At the same time, the cost of permits for non–residential buildings increased by 9.7%, from 6.18 billion to 6.62 billion Australian dollars, while in the residential segment there was a decrease of 0.9%, from 8.38 billion to 8.32 billion Australian dollars. The National Bank of Australia (NAB) business confidence index for January strengthened from -2.0 to 4.0 points, marking the highest since October, but did not have a noticeable impact on the pair's movement.The US dollar maintains its position around 108.20 in USDX after the news about the upcoming introduction of 25.0% duties on steel and aluminum imports, which starts on March 4 without exceptions for any countries. According to President Donald Trump, this step should help strengthen domestic production and increase jobs in the industry. Investors have so far refrained from active trading decisions, awaiting today's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. His first comment after the inauguration of the American leader may set a further direction for financial markets.Resistance levels: 0.6310, 0.6410.Support levels: 0.6240, 0.6140.NZD/USD: unemployment reached 5.1% due to seasonal factorsThe NZD/USD pair is consolidating near 0.5444, reacting to the local strengthening of the US dollar and disappointing macroeconomic data from New Zealand.In December, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.1% from 4.8%, reflecting a deterioration in the situation among both men (4.9% versus 4.7%) and women (5.2% versus 5.0%). The total number of unemployed reached 156.0 thousand, which is 7.0 thousand more than in the third quarter. At the same time, employment decreased by 32.0 thousand people in annual terms, amounting to 2.916 million. The largest number of jobs decreased in the field of technical specialties (-22.6 thousand), the administrative sector (-20.4 thousand) and the transport industry (-17.0 thousand). Against the background of weak indicators, the probability of further easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is increasing, which creates additional pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency.Support levels: 0.5620, 0.5520.Resistance levels: 0.5680, 0.5790.USD/CAD: traders' attention is focused on employment statisticsThe USD/CAD pair is correcting upward after a moderate decline the day before, trading around 1.4331: investors remain cautious, awaiting new comments from US President Donald Trump.Traders are carefully analyzing the latest data on the US and Canadian labor markets for January. In the United States, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector decreased from 307.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, which turned out to be worse than forecasts (170.0 thousand). The average hourly wage accelerated from 3.9% to 4.1% in annual terms, exceeding expectations of 3.8%, and from 0.3% to 0.5% on a monthly basis. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%. The Canadian figures turned out to be stronger than expected: employment did not decrease as significantly as expected, falling from 91.0 thousand (revised from 90.9 thousand) to 76.0 thousand with a forecast of 25.0 thousand. The average hourly wage slowed from 3.8% to 3.7%, and the unemployment rate, contrary to expectations of an increase to 6.8%, decreased to 6.6% from 6.7% a month earlier.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.USD/JPY: the pair is held at local lowsThe US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/JPY pair, holding near the level of 152.00: traders are refraining from active actions, waiting for clarifications on Washington's trading strategy and new factors that can set the direction of the quotes movement.Against this background, the yen is under pressure from weak Japanese macroeconomic statistics. In January, bank lending volumes increased by 3.0%, although analysts had expected 3.1%. The index of assessment of the current economic situation from Eco Watchers decreased from 49.0 to 48.6 points, while the forecast indicator was adjusted from 49.4 to 48.0 points. In addition, data on the balance of payments, excluding seasonal fluctuations, showed a significant decrease in December — from 3352.5 billion yen to 1077.3 billion yen, which turned out to be worse than market expectations (1362.0 billion yen).An additional risk to the Japanese currency remains the country's colossal public debt, which is more than twice the size of the national economy, remaining the highest among developed countries. According to the Ministry of Finance, at the end of December it amounted to 1173.56 trillion yen in bonds, 46.88 trillion yen in loans and 97.20 trillion yen in promissory note financing. The sharp increase in spending on social support and the defense sector continues to exacerbate the debt burden, which limits the authorities' ability to maneuver financially.Resistance levels: 152.53, 153.27, 153.70, 154.50.Support levels: 151.50, 150.92, 150.50, 150.00. 
GBP/USD: British regulator announces rate cutThe GBP/USD pair shows a moderate decline at the beginning of the trading session, consolidating around 1.2425. Market participants are taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the publication of the January report on the US labor market, scheduled for 15:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector will decrease from 256.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand, the average hourly wage will decrease from 3.9% to 3.8% year-on-year, and will remain at 0.3% month-on-month. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.1%. Despite the increasing pressure, the labor market remains stable amid the current measures of the US Federal Reserve. Additional attention of investors was attracted by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, who noted that the strengthening of the tariff policy of the republican administration could provoke an increase in inflation comparable to the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also expressed concern that the introduction of new import duties could have a more serious impact on consumer price dynamics than during the first presidential term of Donald Trump.The British market is focused on the January data on the house price index from Halifax Bank Plc.: analysts predict an increase of 0.2% after a decrease of 0.2% a month earlier. In addition, investors are assessing the results of the Bank of England meeting that ended the day before. As expected, the regulator lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, while two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported more aggressive easing, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points immediately. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further decisions in the field of monetary policy will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. The regulator's official statement indicates that inflation slowed to 2.5% in the fourth quarter, but the positive trend may be temporarily disrupted due to adjustments in energy and utility prices. It is expected that the indicator will reach the target level of 2.0% no earlier than the end of 2027. At the same time, economic growth turned out to be weaker than November forecasts, and consumer and business confidence continues to decline, which creates additional pressure on the British currency.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.AUD/USD: the exchange rate maintains positions at local highsThe Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during Asian trading, holding near the level of 0.6280 and local peaks on January 27. Ending the week on a positive note, the exchange rate compensated for the recent decline, when quotes reached their lowest values since April 2020.At the same time, Australia's macroeconomic statistics leave a contradictory impression. In December, exports slowed from 4.2% to 1.1%, while imports increased sharply from 1.4% to 5.9%, resulting in a decrease in the trade surplus from $6.792 million to $5.085 million. The analysts' forecast assumed a result of 7.0 million dollars. The National Bank of Australia's business confidence index for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed only a slight recovery, rising from -7.0 to -4.0 points. The growth of the tourist flow provides some support to the national economy. This New Year's season, the number of Chinese citizens traveling abroad increased by almost 30.0% compared to last year, which has already affected the Australian market. In 2023, Chinese tourists brought in over $300.0 million to Western Australia, stimulating the development of the hospitality industry and partially offsetting the region's dependence on raw material exports. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, up to 1.5 million Chinese travelers visited Australia annually, spending a total of about $12.0 billion.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6320, 0.6372, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6274, 0.6250, 0.6225, 0.6200.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident in strengthening liraThe USD/TRY pair is strengthening during the morning session, recovering the losses of the last two days and testing the 36.0000 mark again. Investors continue to closely monitor the trade policy of the administration of US President Donald Trump, which remains a key factor in market uncertainty.Since February 1, the White House has imposed new import duties: Chinese goods are subject to a 10.0% tax, and products from Canada and Mexico — 25.0%, with the exception of Canadian energy resources, for which a tariff of 10.0% is set. However, the very next day, the deadline for the introduction of the latest restrictions was postponed for a month due to agreements to strengthen border control aimed at combating illegal migration and smuggling of prohibited substances. Now the United States can extend similar measures to the European Union, which is ready to respond with symmetrical sanctions. In addition, the focus is on Trump's statement about the possible transfer of the Gaza Strip to the United States after the end of the military conflict between Israel and Hamas, followed by the eviction of its residents. The Turkish authorities strongly condemned the plan, calling it "unacceptable" and pointing to the historical nature of the conflict, exacerbated by such initiatives.Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek expressed confidence that the national currency will continue to strengthen if the current economic rate remains unchanged. He stressed that slowing inflation remains the government's key task, and the Central Bank should continue its tight credit policy. According to him, achieving the goals set will help return the economy to sustainable growth at 5.0% in real terms.Resistance levels: 36.0000, 36.1000, 36.2000, 36.3000.Support levels: 35.8800, 35.8000, 35.7250, 35.6500.USD/CAD: Canadians approve retaliatory duties on US sanctionsThe USD/CAD pair is showing a correction around 1.4320, and the Canadian dollar is strengthening, almost leveling off the losses recorded last week.The US tariffs of 25.0% on exports from Canada were postponed for 30 days just a few hours after their official introduction. According to analysts, this measure was rather a tool of pressure from Washington in negotiations on migration policy. However, according to a Nanos Research Group study, 80.0% of Canadians are in favor of retaliatory trade duties on oil supplies if the Donald Trump administration decides to impose restrictions. The greatest support for such measures was recorded in the Atlantic Provinces (89.0%), where the main offshore projects are concentrated. At the same time, 79.0% of respondents said that the government should introduce "mirror" tariffs, even if this leads to an acceleration of inflation.Despite the positive attitude of the society, the pressure on the Canadian currency is increasing due to weak macroeconomic indicators. The Ivey business activity index fell from 54.7 points to 47.1 points in January, reaching its lowest level since December 2023. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will focus on employment data: the unemployment rate is projected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8% amid a decrease in the number of new jobs from 90.9 thousand to 25.5 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.4420, 1.4710.Support levels: 1.4240, 1.4010. 
EUR/USD: business reports from the EU provoke a decline in the dollarThe European currency is strengthening against the US dollar, and the EUR/USD pair is consolidating around 1.0386, supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone.In January, the index of business activity in the German service sector rose from 51.2 to 52.5 points, in France, on the contrary, decreased from 49.3 to 48.2 points, in Italy it decreased from 50.7 to 50.4 points, and the overall indicator for the EU dropped from 51.6 to 51.3 points, remaining in the growth zone. The S&P Global composite index increased from 49.0 to 50.5 points in Germany, remained at 47.6 points in France, and rose from 49.6 to 50.2 points in the eurozone. Additionally, the EU producer price index remained unchanged in December, which was significantly better than the previous drop of 1.2%. Overall, inflation remains under control, which opens up the possibility for the European Central Bank (ECB) to further ease monetary policy.For the first time in a week, the US currency does not respond to fundamental factors: after the publication of statistics, the dollar adjusted downwards, trading at 107.50 in the USDX index. In January, the index of business activity in the US services sector decreased from 56.8 to 52.9 points, while the ISM index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector adjusted from 54.0 to 52.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.0430, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0210.USD/JPY: Bank of Japan confirms policy tightening courseThe USD/JPY pair continues to decline during the Asian session, developing a downward trend that began in mid-January. Quotes are testing the 152.30 level, updating the lows recorded on December 12. The yen is strengthening its position due to the growing demand for defensive assets, while investors are assessing the consequences of the trade policy pursued by the US republican administration.Japan's published macroeconomic data show positive dynamics: the Jibun Bank business activity index in the industrial sector rose from 52.7 to 53.0 points in January, and wages increased by 4.8% in December after rising by 3.9% a month earlier, exceeding analysts' forecasts for a slowdown to 3.8%.Kazuhiro Masaki, Head of the Monetary Affairs Department of the Bank of Japan, confirmed that the regulator is ready to continue raising interest rates if core inflation accelerates to the target level of 2.0%. This statement indicates the authorities' intention to maintain a course towards a gradual tightening of monetary policy, despite the uncertainty associated with US trade tariffs affecting market volatility. Recall that in December, core consumer inflation in Japan reached 3.0% in annual terms, the highest level in the last 16 months. The inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 has already been revised upward from 1.9% to 2.1%, which reinforces expectations for further steps by the Bank of Japan towards normalization of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 152.74, 153.27, 153.70, 154.50.Support levels: 151.50, 150.50, 150.00, 149.35.Silver market analysisXAG/USD quotes continue their local corrective trend, strengthening after trying to stay below 31.00 at the beginning of the month. The instrument is currently testing the 32.23 level, setting the stage for further growth.The delayed imposition of trade duties on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, initiated by the administration of Donald Trump, has become a positive factor for the metals market. Washington agreed to postpone the restrictions for 30 days after the governments of the two countries promised to strengthen control over illegal migration and the fight against the smuggling of prohibited substances. However, the ongoing trade tensions continue to worry investors: more than 60% of U.S. silver is purchased from Canada and Mexico, and the dependence of the American market on these suppliers forced the White House to adjust planned tariffs on energy and raw materials in the mining sector from 25% to 10%. Despite this, the expansion of protectionist policies increases the level of uncertainty and stimulates demand for protective assets, including silver.Support levels: 31.80, 29.60.Resistance levels: 32.60, 34.50.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the morning session, WTI Crude Oil quotes continued to trade near their lowest values since December 30, holding at 71.00 under pressure from the foreign economic policy of the Donald Trump administration, which is accompanied by new trade restrictions.Since the beginning of February, the White House has imposed increased duties on a number of countries, but then postponed the date of entry into force of sanctions against Mexico and Canada for a month. In response, China announced mirror measures by increasing tariffs on imports of American goods. Now the market's attention is shifting to possible trade barriers between the US and the EU: earlier, Trump said that Europe was behaving "terribly" towards America. Brussels has already made it clear that they are ready to impose retaliatory restrictions if Washington raises taxes on European products.Additional pressure on prices was exerted by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA): in the week ended January 31, commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 8.664 million barrels, significantly exceeding the projected 3.2 million barrels. Similar data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) also recorded an increase in reserves of 5.03 million barrels against 3.17 million a week earlier. Meanwhile, OPEC has been reducing hydrocarbon production for the second month in a row: according to Reuters, in January, production decreased by 50,000 barrels per day to 26.53 million. The largest decrease was recorded in Nigeria and Iran (-60,000 barrels), as well as in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. At the same time, Saudi Arabian Oil Group raised the price of Arab Light oil for the Asian market by $2.40 per barrel in March, which was a record level over the past two years, reflecting higher premiums for Middle Eastern raw materials and improved margins for refineries.Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.62, 72.15, 73.00.Support levels: 70.00, 69.00, 68.30, 67.00. 
EUR/USD: Euro in consolidation, awaiting growth momentumThe euro shows mixed dynamics in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.0380. After steady growth in the previous two days, the single currency reached the levels of the end of last week, which is associated with a sharp "bearish" gap at the start of the trading week.Traders' attention is focused on the January statistics on business activity in the eurozone from S&P Global. According to forecasts, the index in the German service sector will remain at 52.5 points, the same indicator for the eurozone will remain at 51.4 points, and a slight decrease from 50.7 to 50.5 points is expected in Italy. At 12:00 (GMT+2), December statistics on the producer price index will be released: monthly growth is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 0.4% and the annual rate will increase from -1.2% to -0.1%.Next, the focus of market participants will switch to the publication of American data. At 17:00 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the service sector will be released: S&P Global predicts that the indicator will remain at 52.8 points, and the ISM index is likely to grow from 54.1 to 54.3 points. At 15:15 (GMT+2), investors will pay attention to the ADP report on private sector employment — experts expect an increase from 122.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand jobs, which will become a guideline before the publication of key data on the US labor market on Friday, February 7. According to forecasts, the NFP indicator will decrease from 256.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand, the average hourly wage in annual terms will decrease from 3.9% to 3.8%, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.GBP/USD: investors are focused on British statistics on the service sectorThe pound sterling maintains neutral dynamics in the GBP/USD pair, trading around 1.2469 during the Asian session: despite the correction of the US dollar, the asset fails to continue its growth.Investors' attention is focused on the upcoming publication of the index of business activity in the UK services sector for January: according to forecasts, the indicator may improve slightly - from 51.1 points to 51.2 points, which will lead to an increase in the composite index from 50.4 points to 50.9 points. However, the situation in the manufacturing sector remains difficult: new orders continue to decline and jobs are being cut, and in April the tax burden on wages is expected to increase and the minimum wage will be revised. As a result, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' index rose from 47.0 points to 48.3 points, but still remains in the recession zone.Pressure on the US dollar increased after statements by the administration of President Donald Trump about postponing the introduction of 25.0% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico for 30 days. The leaders of these countries promised to strengthen measures to combat illegal migration, which investors perceived as part of tactical negotiations that contradict early statements by the White House about the need to protect national businesses. An additional negative factor for the dollar was JOLTS data on the number of open vacancies in the United States, which decreased from 8,156 million to 7,600 million, the lowest level since September.Resistance levels: 1.2520, 1.2690.Support levels: 1.2420, 1.2250.USD/CAD: analysts warn of a possible crisis in CanadaThe USD/CAD pair is consolidating at 1.3430, testing the resistance level against the background of a decrease in trading activity after a sharp increase in quotations to 1.4800 at the beginning of the week. The rise was caused by the announcement of the introduction of US tariffs of 25.0% on imports of goods from Canada, but the parties agreed to postpone the deadline, giving Ottawa the opportunity to strengthen control over migration flows.Analysts warn that the escalation of trade disputes could become the largest crisis in economic relations between the two countries since the 1930s. The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 6.7% to 8.7–9.7%, which will return the indicator to the values of the COVID-19 pandemic. Doug Porter, an economist at the Bank of Montreal, believes that the Canadian economy will enter a "moderate recession" as early as 2025, and Tu Nguyen, an expert at RSM Canada, estimates a possible decline in GDP of 2.0%, which exceeds the previously forecast 1.8%.Investors are awaiting Friday's release of January Canadian labor market data. According to preliminary estimates, the number of people employed in the economy will decrease from 90.9 thousand to 25.0 thousand, the average hourly wage will show an increase from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the unemployment rate will increase to 6.8%.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session, the XAU/USD pair maintains steady growth, testing the 2850.00 mark for an upward breakout, as demand for defensive assets remains high.The market continues to react to the US trade policy: after the announcement of 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1, the Donald Trump administration agreed to postpone their introduction for a month. This happened after Ottawa committed to strengthening border controls, and Mexico City agreed to send 10,000 troops to combat illegal migration and smuggling. Meanwhile, 10.0% tariffs have already been imposed on China, to which Beijing responded with symmetrical measures affecting American coal, LNG, agricultural machinery and automobiles. Now the markets are waiting for possible negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping: if they are successful, duties can be mitigated, but if the parties do not come to an agreement, a new stage of the trade conflict risks disrupting global supply chains.The situation in the futures market remains tense. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the volume of net speculative positions in gold last week amounted to 299.4 thousand, only slightly below 300.8 thousand a week earlier. Investors continue to form new positions, which indicates a high probability of continued volatile movement. The number of bullish contracts in positions secured by real funds reached 242,828 thousand against 12,236 thousand for the bears. At the same time, buyers increased their positions by 2,910 thousand, and sellers — by 6,676 thousand, which indicates continued interest in gold in an uncertain environment.Resistance levels: 2858.06, 2875.00, 2900.00, 2920.00.Support levels: 2845.00, 2830.42, 2807.13, 2790.00. 
EUR/USD: the market is considering easing the US tariff policyThe EUR/USD pair is correcting upward after testing support at 1.0221, seeking to gain a foothold in the 1.0302 area amid a review of US trade policy.The day before, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly softened his rhetoric regarding new duties: the initially announced 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, which was supposed to take effect on February 4, was postponed for 30 days after talks with Mexican leader Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It is expected that during this time the parties will be able to reach a compromise. Against the background of this news, investors actively withdrew from risky assets at the beginning of Monday's trading, which led to a 1.46% decline in the euro, but later the quotes regained some of their losses, ending the day with a drop of only 0.18%. Postponing the introduction of trade barriers has increased demand for the European currency, but further risks remain. If the White House starts discussing similar tariffs on imports from the EU, the EUR/USD pair may not only update the January low at 1.0177, but also test parity.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0630, 1.0820.Support levels: 1.0220, 1.0085, 1.0000.AUD/USD: Trump temporarily freezes increase in duties on Mexican importsThe Australian dollar holds its position in the AUD/USD pair, trading at 0.6199, remaining above the minimum values of last year. Despite the neutral reaction of the market to macroeconomic statistics, quotes remain stable against the background of adjustments in the positions of the US currency.After a significant strengthening at the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell back to Monday's levels, trading around 108.60 in the USDX index. This happened after the White House announced a temporary postponement of 25.0% of duties on Mexican goods, as the Mexican authorities agreed to increase the number of national guards on the border with the United States by 10.0 thousand people to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. An additional factor influencing the dynamics of the pair will be the publication at 17:00 (GMT+2) of December statistics on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market (JOLTS). It is expected that the figure will decrease from 8.098 million to 8.010 million, which may increase pressure on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6260, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6150, 0.6000.Silver market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, silver quotes showed mixed dynamics, holding near the $31.50 per ounce mark, which is close to two-month highs. The day before, silver prices showed rapid growth, which was the market's reaction to the publication of the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). The regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50%, emphasizing the desire to ensure maximum employment and reduce inflation to the target level of 2% in the long term. At the same time, the Committee on Open Market Operations (FOMC) is ready to adjust its approach to monetary policy depending on economic conditions.According to forecasts, the global silver market will remain in short supply in 2025. Total supply will increase by 3% to 1.05 billion ounces, reaching an 11-year high. Production will increase by 2% to 844 million ounces, which will be a seven-year high. Demand for silver will remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, while industrial consumption will grow by 3% and exceed 700 million ounces for the first time. Physical investment in silver will also increase by 3% due to increased demand in Europe and North America. However, the demand for jewelry will decrease by 6%, mainly due to high prices in India.Resistance levels: 31.00, 31.30, 31.56, 32.00.Support levels: 30.77, 30.50, 30.25, 30.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, coffee quotes show mixed dynamics. Arabica futures on the New York ICE Exchange have reached a new record, approaching $4 per pound, due to extremely limited supplies and concerns about future harvests. Earlier, on January 30, Arabica prices reached a historic high of $3,7685 per pound, which is 1.9% higher than the previous session.The situation on the coffee market remains tense due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries. In Brazil, which provides almost half of the world's arabica production, the drought caused significant damage to last year's crop, resulting in a sharp reduction in certified arabica stocks by almost 100,000 bags, to about 900,000 bags. In addition, farmers in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price increases, which also helps to limit supply in the market.Experts note that Brazil's current buffer reserves have decreased to 500,000 bags (60 kg) against the traditional 8 million bags, which means that any additional weather disasters could have a significant impact on global coffee prices. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are also showing an increase. As of February 3, 2025, the average price was 130,600 VND per kilogram, which is 1,700 VND more than in the previous trading session.Resistance levels: 4.00, 4.10.Support levels: 3.70, 3.60. 
AUD/USD: AUD rate falls to record levelsThe Australian dollar continues to lose ground in the AUD/USD pair, demonstrating a steady downward trend during Asian trading. The quotes of the instrument are approaching the level of 0.6115, updating the minimum values since April 2020, which confirms the stability of the "bearish" momentum laid down last week.Recent macroeconomic reports have an additional impact on the Australian currency. December retail sales in the country decreased by 0.1% compared with the November decline of 0.7%, but the quarterly figure accelerated from 0.5% to 1.0%. The volume of building permits increased by 0.7% after falling by 3.4% a month earlier, and year-on-year the indicator strengthened to 12.2% from the previous 3.2%. The S&P Global industrial business activity index rose from 49.8 to 50.2 points, while the Chinese Caixin index, reflecting the situation in the manufacturing sector, fell from 50.5 to 50.1 points. The easing of inflationary pressures also creates conditions for a change in monetary policy. The producer price index slowed to 0.8% month—on-month in the fourth quarter, while forecasts indicated a 1.0% retention, and from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year. This, along with a reduction in consumer inflation, may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to ease policy. According to Bloomberg's forecast, the regulator may cut the rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% as early as this month, which will increase pressure on the Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6155, 0.6178, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.6030, 0.6000.USD/CAD: Ottawa responds to Washington by imposing trade dutiesThe USD/CAD pair has updated the historical highs of 2016 and 2020, reaching 1.4740, the highest level in the last 11 years. This move was a reaction to the introduction of 25 percent trade duties by the administration of US President Donald Trump, while the rate for energy imports will be 10.0%.The head of the White House stressed that in case of retaliatory measures from Canada and other countries, tariffs may be increased. However, Ottawa did not hesitate and, starting on February 4, introduces mirror duties on American products, including food, alcohol, weapons and motorcycles, which together will affect imports worth $155.0 billion. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to give preference to nationally produced goods, and a number of provinces have already announced their refusal to cooperate with well-known alcohol brands from the United States. Additionally, Canada and Mexico confirmed their readiness to present a united front against Washington's economic policy, as the new tariffs threaten serious losses for the decades-old trilateral trade partnership. Against the background of the escalation of the trade conflict, the USDX index started with a gap and is already trading near the January high of 109.48, and a further escalation of the confrontation may accelerate the movement of the US currency to the 2022 extreme of 114.68.Resistance levels: 1.4940, 1.5230.Support levels: 1.4466, 1.4280.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair is steadily approaching the 2800.0 mark, remaining in the local maximum zone. The key factor determining the further movement of quotations remains the dynamics of the US dollar, which today almost managed to reach its January peak at 109.90 in the USDX index. However, gold continues to receive support amid steady demand from global central banks, including the People's Bank of China. In November, the Chinese regulator purchased 5.0 tons of the precious metal, which is almost 10.0% of the total global purchases, which reached 53.0 tons.The foreign trade policy of US President Donald Trump remains an additional driver for strengthening the position of gold. New tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China will come into force tomorrow.: The rate will be 25.0% and 10.0%, respectively. Silver coming from Canada and Mexico is also subject to restrictions, accounting for about 64.0% of total U.S. consumption. These changes may lead to an increase in demand for gold as an alternative asset, especially against the background of a possible correction in the stock market and instability in global trade.Resistance levels: 2815.0, 2930.0.Support levels: 2750.0, 2625.0.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing a moderate decline in morning trading, testing support around 73.30 as traders assess the impact of new US trade measures and the prospects for global demand.Investors are closely following President Donald Trump's decision to impose 25.0% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, while energy supplies from Canada are subject to a reduced rate of 10.0%. A similar tariff applies to Chinese products, adding to the existing restrictions. Moreover, Trump again mentioned the possibility of introducing similar barriers to imports from the EU. Against this background, Canada and a number of European countries have strongly criticized and promised retaliatory measures. Although Trump made it clear that oil could be excluded from the list of taxable goods, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau refused to rule out the possibility of limiting hydrocarbon supplies to the United States, saying his cabinet was considering all possible retaliatory steps.The US position on OPEC+ exerts additional pressure on the market. The head of the White House continues to demand a reduction in global energy prices. Representatives of the cartel will hold talks today, but earlier the alliance stated that it has no plans to abandon the current production restrictions and artificial oil price retention. According to OPEC+ forecasts, global demand for raw materials may increase by 0.7–1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, which creates additional uncertainty in the future of price fluctuations.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.62, 71.00. 
EUR/GBP: euro is declining due to the ECB's rhetoricThe European currency remains under pressure in the EUR/GBP pair, showing weak dynamics during the Asian session. The instrument is moving within the downtrend formed on January 23, testing the 0.8360 level and updating the minimum values since January 9.The main factor in the decline of the euro was the outcome of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As analysts predicted, the regulator reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base interest rate is now 2.90%, and the deposit rate is 2.75%. In an official commentary, ECB representatives expressed concern about the potential acceleration of inflation and said they would continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, wage growth rates are beginning to stabilize, which, according to experts, will have a restraining effect on inflation risks in the future. There were no clear signals regarding further monetary policy, but a significant number of analysts believe that the ECB may continue to cut rates at each subsequent meeting until mid-summer.Additional support for the pound was provided by the data on lending published the day before: in December, the volume of consumer loans increased from 0.905 billion pounds to 1.045 billion pounds, exceeding expectations of 0.95 billion pounds. The net consumer lending rate also showed significant growth, from 3.5 billion pounds to 4.6 billion pounds, reaching its highest level since September 2022. In addition, the number of approved mortgage applications increased from 66,061 thousand to 66,526 thousand, while forecasts suggested a decrease to 65,400 thousand. These figures indicate the continued steady demand for loans, which increases investor optimism about the prospects for the UK economy, despite the increase in the tax burden planned in the new budget. In addition, the Reuters news agency presented the results of the latest survey of experts: the overwhelming majority of respondents expect that at the next meeting the Bank of England will cut the interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, after which it will take a break to assess the effectiveness of its policy.Resistance levels: 0.8370, 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419.Support levels: 0.8350, 0.8340, 0.8326, 0.8310.NZD/USD: a cautious correction before the statistics on the US PCE indexThe New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 0.5646 after weakening during the week. The technical correction contributes to the recovery, as market participants prefer to refrain from active transactions ahead of the publication of key data on inflation in the United States. Investors' attention is focused on statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which is a guideline for the Federal Reserve when making monetary policy decisions. The base index is projected to increase from 0.1% to 0.2% in December, maintaining the annual value at 2.8%, while the overall index may strengthen to 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.Macroeconomic data from New Zealand published on the eve reflected a decline in business confidence: the index from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decreased from 62.3 to 54.4 points, and the indicator of forecasted business activity from ANZ fell from 50.3% to 45.8%. At the same time, the situation in foreign trade improved: December exports increased from 6.42 billion to 6.84 billion New Zealand dollars, while imports decreased from 6.85 billion to 6.62 billion dollars. As a result, the monthly trade balance entered a positive zone, recording a surplus of $219 million against a deficit of $435 million in November.Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway noted that New Zealand is losing ground in the global economy, losing ground not only to its largest trading partners, but also to emerging economies. According to his forecasts, the GDP growth rate in the next three years will be 1.5%-2.0% per year, which is significantly lower than historical figures. According to Conway, the key reasons for the slowdown were the weak dynamics of foreign trade, lack of foreign investment, lack of financing for innovative developments and lack of qualified personnel.Resistance levels: 0.5650, 0.5672, 0.5700, 0.5723.Support levels: 0.5633, 0.5607, 0.5571, 0.5540.USD/CAD: US GDP slowed to 2.3% at the end of the year, contrary to forecastsThe USD/CAD pair remains under pressure from fundamental factors, holding in the area of 1.4480 and demonstrating the potential for updating local highs.The US currency is showing a moderate correction, rising to around 108.00 in the USDX index on the back of fresh macroeconomic data. According to published statistics, the US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed from 3.1% to 2.3%, falling short of analysts' forecasts of 2.7%. At the same time, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 223.0 thousand to 207.0 thousand in a week, which temporarily supported the dollar. Investors are also closely monitoring the upcoming introduction of import tariffs, which are expected to take effect tomorrow. US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the new restrictions will affect shipments from Canada, Mexico and several other countries. According to the American leader, the imposition of duties is due to the inability of these states to control illegal migration, as well as their policy of significant subsidies that create a trade imbalance to the detriment of the United States.Resistance levels: 1.4520, 1.4740.Support levels: 1.4410, 1.4170.Crude Oil market overviewThe quotes of WTI Crude Oil continue to move within the corrective trend, again approaching the important level of 72.00. The upward momentum is supported by the ongoing uncertainty regarding the trade policy of the US Republican administration, which forces investors to exercise caution.The latest statistics on raw material stocks had an additional impact on price dynamics. Thus, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), published on Wednesday, showed only a slight increase in oil volumes in storage — by 2,860 million barrels after an increase of 1,000 million a week earlier. A similar report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an increase in inventories of 3.463 million barrels, while previous figures recorded a decrease of 1.017 million barrels. This information increased the pressure on oil prices, contributing to the persistence of negative market sentiment.Meanwhile, traders are paying attention to the latest statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the latest report, the volume of net speculative positions decreased from 306.3 thousand to 298.8 thousand contracts in a week. Despite this pullback, the indicator remains at a fairly high level, which increases the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations in the coming trading sessions.Support levels: 72.10, 69.00.Resistance levels: 74.00, 77.00.