EUR/USD: Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4%, supporting the euro
As of November 1, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading at 1.0767, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.
The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Annual inflation in October was 2.0%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained at 2.7%, which exceeds the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). GDP for the third quarter grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, exceeding growth forecasts of 0.2%, indicating some recovery in economic activity. The unemployment rate in the region has stabilized at 6.3%. Despite these data, the ECB decided at its meeting on October 30 to leave the key rate at 3.75%, citing the need for further analysis of economic conditions before changing monetary policy. Retail sales data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2), where a decrease of 0.2% is forecast; this may put pressure on the euro in case of confirmation or deterioration of indicators.
In the United States, the economic situation is showing resilience. Data on the number of jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls) is expected to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). The forecast is 113,000, which supports expectations of stability in the labor market. If the data turns out to be higher than forecasts, this may strengthen the dollar's position and lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD pair. The business activity index (PMI) for October showed an increase to 51.5 points, which is higher than the previous 50.8 and confirms the expansion of production activity. On October 31, the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, arguing that maintaining economic growth and inflation control. At 14:00 (GMT+2), data on the business activity index (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector will also be published, a decrease to 49.5 points is expected, which may affect the dollar if it deviates from the forecast.
- Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.
- Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.
GBP/USD: falling retail sales and weak PMI put pressure on the pound
As of November 1, 2024, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2980, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.
The UK continues to face economic challenges. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 in October, indicating a decrease in activity in the sector. The consumer confidence index also fell to 95.0, reflecting public concern about the economic situation. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.2% in quarterly terms, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year in September, which is higher than the target level of the Bank of England. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month. The producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating an increase in costs for manufacturers. The business confidence index dropped to 98.0, reflecting the pessimistic mood among entrepreneurs. The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) decreased by 0.3% in September, which may indicate a slowdown in economic activity in the coming months. Retail sales in September decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in consumer activity. The balance of foreign trade showed a deficit of 5.2 billion pounds, indicating an excess of imports over exports. At the last meeting, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, noting the need for further monitoring of inflation risks. The head of the Bank of England announced his readiness to take additional measures in case of deterioration of the economic situation.
- Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100.
- Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.
USD/CAD: trade surplus supports CAD amid volatility
As of November 1, 2024, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading at 1.3933, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session.
The economic and political situation in Canada demonstrates diverse trends that are reflected in the dynamics of the Canadian dollar. In the third quarter of 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, which is higher than in the second quarter, but below the expectations of analysts, who predicted growth of 0.5%. The main drivers of growth were the financial and insurance sectors, which showed an increase of 0.5%, and the services sector, including transport, where growth was 0.3%. However, the downturn in the manufacturing sector, where the business activity index (PMI) fell to 49.1, indicates problems in industry, affecting export dynamics and affecting domestic economic prospects.
The situation with foreign trade remains positive. The trade surplus in the last reporting period amounted to 1.2 billion Canadian dollars due to high demand for energy resources and agricultural goods. However, volatility in global oil and gas prices may pose a risk to the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the CAD exchange rate, as a significant portion of the country's income depends on these export sectors. Investors will be closely watching upcoming publications on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI), which may have an impact on the prospects for the Canadian dollar.
- Resistance levels: 1.3946, 1.4075.
- Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3750.
Silver market analysis
As of November 1, 2024, silver is trading at $33.66 per troy ounce, which is 0.27% lower compared to the previous session.
Important economic events affecting the price of silver are observed in silver-producing countries. In Mexico, the largest producer of silver, GDP grew by 0.5% in quarterly terms in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations of 0.7% growth. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in October compared to September, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The central bank of Mexico has left its key interest rate at 11.25% to control inflation. In Peru, the second largest producer, industrial production decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in September 2024 due to the downturn in the mining sector. The business confidence index fell to 45 points, which demonstrates a pessimistic mood.
Among the silver-consuming countries, the United States and China play a key role. In the United States, GDP for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with analysts' expectations. However, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98 points in October, reflecting concerns about future economic conditions. The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%, while continuing to monitor inflation. In China, GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the second quarter. The PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a reduction in activity. The Chinese government has announced plans to increase government spending on infrastructure to boost the economy.
- Resistance levels: 34.50, 35.00.
- Support levels: 33.00, 32.50.