EUR/USD: weak Eurozone GDP growth puts pressure on the currency pair
The EUR/USD pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 1.08195 and updating the lows of the last month.
Despite the steady growth of the euro in mid-July, the currency pair failed to maintain positive dynamics. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a possible reduction in interest rates in September and November, which could cause significant volatility in the market. In the Eurozone, economic data remains weaker than expected, which further puts pressure on the euro. In particular, the region's GDP shows sluggish growth, and inflation is still under control, which makes the ECB remain cautious about changing monetary policy.
Analysts note that the short-term prospects for EUR/USD remain uncertain. Depending on the Fed's statements and future economic data, the pair may either strengthen if the Fed confirms plans to lower rates, or continue to fall if economic conditions in the United States turn out to be stronger than expected. At the moment, EUR/USD is trading in the range of 1.08000-1.09000, with the 1.08000 level considered an important support.
- Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0945.
- Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0785.
GBP/USD: political instability and geopolitics increase pressure on the pound
The GBP/USD pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 1.2808 and updating the lows of recent weeks.
Despite some positive economic data, the pound remains under pressure. The Bank of England recently cut its benchmark interest rate from 5.25% to 5%, which caused the pound to decline amid concerns about slowing economic growth in the UK. At the same time, US economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, remain fairly stable, which supports the dollar at a high level.
Political instability and geopolitical factors also have an impact on the currency pair. The problems associated with Brexit, as well as the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, increase volatility and cause uncertainty among investors. The economic consequences of these events have a negative impact on the British currency, while the dollar continues to strengthen against the background of global economic instability.
- Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.3000.
- Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2600.
USD/CHF: Jerome Powell and Thomas Jordan form the pair's exchange rate
The USD/CHF pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 0.8506 and updating the lows of recent months.
Economic data from the United States continues to show signs of slowing down. The latest inflation data point to a decline, which reinforces expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months. Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, stressed the need for flexibility in monetary policy in order to adequately respond to changes in the economic situation. This could lead to a softening of the Fed's policy and further pressure on the dollar. At the same time, the Swiss franc is strengthening against the background of stable economic growth and low inflation, which supports it as a safe asset in the face of global economic uncertainty.
Political instability and global economic factors also have an impact on the USD/CHF exchange rate. Conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine are increasing the demand for safe assets such as the Swiss franc. Switzerland's economic policy under the leadership of the head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, remains stable, which also contributes to the strengthening of the franc. It is expected that in the coming months the pair will trade in the range of 0.8450-0.8600, with a possible decline to 0.8400 with increased demand for the franc.
- Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8700.
- Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400.
Gold market analysis
Gold is correcting after reaching new highs in July, trading at $2,326.43 per ounce on August 5, 2024.
Despite significant growth in 2023, when gold ended the year at $2,062.40 per ounce, its dynamics in 2024 continues to attract the attention of investors. The main factors supporting the rise in gold prices include expectations of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve System (Fed), geopolitical risks and sustained demand from central banks. For example, the Reserve Bank of India recorded the largest monthly purchase of gold in the last two years in June.
Analysts predict that in the coming months, gold prices may fluctuate in the range of $2,300-$2,500 per ounce, with a possible increase to $2,600 by the end of 2024. At the same time, it is expected that the Fed will begin a cycle of rate cuts in November, which will further strengthen gold. Experts also emphasize the importance of monitoring inflationary trends and geopolitical events, which can have a significant impact on the dynamics of gold prices.
- Resistance levels: $2,450, $2,500.
- Support levels: $2,300, $2,250.