EUR/USD: EU assesses risks from new US trade tariffs
The EUR/USD pair maintains a corrective trend near the 1.0456 mark, awaiting the release of fresh macroeconomic data, while the fundamental background remains neutral.
The administration of Donald Trump postponed the introduction of tariffs on European imports until April, which, according to analysts, will not have a serious impact on the EU economy: steel and aluminum supplies from the region account for only 2.0% of the total, and the value of American exports already exceeds European, even without new duties. ECB board member Fabio Panetta believes that the US tariff policy will not lead to an increase in inflation in the eurozone, but its possible slowdown below the target level of 2.0% requires special attention from the regulator. At the same time, the head of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, warns that the German economy may be the most vulnerable to trade restrictions from the White House.
Against the backdrop of the US Presidential Day celebrations, the dollar showed low volatility, and the Fed's monetary policy remains a key factor for the market. On Wednesday, the minutes of the January meeting of the regulator will be published, where investors hope to find hints on the timing of a possible interest rate cut. Meanwhile, inflation in the United States is showing the fastest growth rates in the last 18 months, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the rate in March is estimated at 97.5%, which contributes to the stability of the dollar.
- Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.
- Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0280.
GBP/USD: the head of the Bank of England announced the stagnation of the country's economy
The pound is correcting downwards in the GBP/USD pair during morning trading, playing back the growth of the previous day, when quotes updated the maximum since December 19. The instrument is testing the 1.2600 level for a breakdown, while investors are waiting for fresh data on the British labor market. According to forecasts, the average wage in December may accelerate from 5.6% to 5.9%, unemployment will increase from 4.4% to 4.5%, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits from 0.7 thousand to 10.0 thousand.
Market participants' attention is also focused on the upcoming speech by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, at 11:30 (GMT+2), where he may announce possible steps by the regulator regarding the interest rate. Earlier, the official described the country's economic growth rate as "static", despite unexpectedly strong data for the fourth quarter of 2024.: GDP increased by 0.1% instead of the expected decline, and year-on-year growth was 1.4% against the projected 1.1%. However, the Bank of England revised its GDP expectations for 2025 from 1.0% to 0.75%, and during its last meeting on February 6, it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, expecting inflation to rise to 3.7% in the third quarter.
Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), January UK inflation data will be released on the market: analysts expect an increase in the annual consumer price index from 2.5% to 2.8%, while a correction of -0.3% is possible in monthly terms. The base index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.6%. Retail sales reports will be released on Friday at 09:00 (GMT+2), and February business activity statistics from S&P Global will be released at 11:30 (GMT+2). The index in industry is expected to rise to 48.5 points from 48.3 points, and in the service sector to 51.0 points from 50.9 points. Expectations for similar American indicators suggest a continuation of the level of 51.2 points in the manufacturing sector and an increase in the services index from 52.9 points to 53.2 points.
- Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730, 1.2776.
- Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.
USD/CHF: quarterly growth of Swiss GDP was 0.4%
The USD/CHF pair continues to develop upward dynamics, having tested the 0.9030 level for an upward breakout during morning trading. Markets remain waiting for new drivers, as the American stock exchanges were closed the day before due to the celebration of Presidential Day. Investors are analyzing Friday's reports: retail sales in the United States in January decreased by 0.9% month-on-month against a forecast of 0.1%, and annual growth slowed from 4.4% to 4.2%, while industrial production fell to 0.5% against forecasts of 0.3%.
In Switzerland, the producer and import price index decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in January, but showed an increase of 0.1% over the month. Today, market participants' attention is focused on industrial production data for the fourth quarter, where the indicator is expected to remain at 3.5%. Additional support for the franc was provided by information on the growth of Swiss GDP by 0.4% in the fourth quarter, which confirms the stability of the national economy, despite the slowdown in annual growth to 0.8% from 1.2% in 2023. The final estimate of the indicator will be presented on February 27.
- Resistance levels: 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130.
- Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8929, 0.8900.
NZD/USD: experts expect RBNZ rate cut to 3.75%
During the Asian trading session, the New Zealand dollar is significantly losing ground, falling to the area of 0.5705. This movement reflects a correction after the recent sharp rise, when the NZD/USD pair updated the maximum values recorded on December 18.
At the same time, large-scale emigration is observed in New Zealand: the total number of citizens who left the country, including those who returned, reached 47.0 thousand, whereas a year earlier this figure was 43.3 thousand. According to Fortune, the vast majority of expats chose to move to Australia, hoping for broader career prospects abroad. With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand having already lowered its key interest rate by a total of 125 basis points since August last year, the regulator has yet to step up measures to support the economy, which is under pressure due to rising unemployment and the effects of the recession. According to a survey of economists conducted by Reuters, at the next meeting, the agency is likely to reduce the indicator by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%. Moreover, analysts predict an additional rate cut of 75 basis points over the course of the year. Investors are also expressing concern about a possible increase in the tariff policy of the Donald Trump administration, which could hit New Zealand's export-oriented sector. Earlier, the American president announced 25 percent duties on aluminum and steel imports, as well as counter-sanctions against countries that restrict access to American goods on their markets.
- Resistance levels: 0.5723, 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800.
- Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.