EUR/USD: ahead of the announcement of Eurozone GDP figures for the 3rd quarter
As a result of the active rise yesterday, at today's Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows a moderate correction, trading at 1.0632 in anticipation of upcoming macroeconomic indicators.
The October statistics of German consumer prices showed a decrease from 0.3% to 0.0%, which does not meet the experts' expectations of a decrease to 0.2%, and from 4.5% to 3.8% on an annual basis, which is lower than the predicted 4.0%. Nevertheless, German GDP showed a correction of -0.1% after the previous growth of 0.1%, leading to an annual change from 0.0% to -0.3%. On this basis, experts assume that the eurozone GDP, scheduled for publication today at 12:00 (GMT+2), will show stability in the third quarter, compared with growth of 0.1% earlier, which may slow the annual rate from 0.5% to 0.2%. This increases the likelihood of a recession in this area, which may weaken the euro's position. Today's market focus is also on German retail sales statistics for September, import price indices and October inflation indicators in France, Italy and the entire eurozone. Preliminary estimates suggest a decrease in inflation in the EU from 4.3% to 3.2%.
The US currency is supported above the level of 106.000 on the USD index. Today, attention is paid to the report on the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, where analysts predict a drop from 103.0 to 100.0 points. Also in focus are estimates on labor costs for the third quarter, where the forecast remains at the growth level of 1.0%.
- Resistance levels: 1.0640, 1.0750.
- Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0450.
NZD/USD: mixed trends amid expectations of key incentives for activity
NZD/USD shows corrective movements, stabilizing around the 0.5830 mark, which compensates for the early growth of the week caused by the weakening of the US currency before the US Federal Reserve session. The main market does not forecast a 25 basis point rate increase, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may not completely reject such an outcome in the long run. In addition, investors are closely monitoring updated expectations regarding inflation and GDP dynamics in the near future.
Meanwhile, the National Bank of New Zealand in October adjusted its activity forecast from 10.9% to 23.1%, and the business confidence index from the Reserve Bank of the country rose from 1.5 to 23.4 points. In September, the New Zealand regulator set the interest rate at 5.50%, with the rate increasing by a total of 525 basis points from the end of 2021 in order to curb actively growing inflation. Experts believe that the rate will remain at a high level for a long period, exerting incredible pressure on the household economy. Currently, the annual mortgage rate has risen from 7.19% to 7.25% for those who have at least 20.0% of their own funds, as banks are trying to redistribute their expenses among customers.
- Resistance levels: 0.5858, 0.5879, 0.5900, 0.5920.
- Support levels: 0.5830, 0.5800, 0.5771, 0.5750.
GBP/USD: experts predict that the Bank of England will keep the rate at 5.25%
The GBP/USD pair shows weak dynamics on the wane, moving away from the recent peaks recorded on October 25. Currently, the currency instrument is heading towards the level of 1.2140, while traders are closely monitoring potential driving forces in the market, the key of which is the upcoming decision of the Bank of England on monetary policy.
It is expected that at the meeting on November 2 at 14:00 (GMT+2), the Bank of England will leave the key rate unchanged at 5.25%. At the same time, the regulator can confirm that the process of combating current inflation has not yet been completed, even taking into account some indicators of its stabilization. In particular, the September consumer price index reached 6.7% year-on-year, remaining at the lowest level in the last year and a half, while in the services sector the indicator increased to 6.9% year-on-year, exceeding the indicator of the previous month (6.8%).
- Resistance levels: 1.2200, 1.2240, 1.2300, 1.2350.
- Support levels: 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2036, 1.2000.
Crude Oil Market Analysis
The price of Brent crude oil is slightly retreating from the position at 87.00, reacting to mixed external factors.
Investors are worried about the likely strengthening of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the potential reduction of oil supplies from this region. However, the positive price movement is hindered by macroeconomic indicators indicating an increase in the global economic downturn and the risks of a decline in oil demand: in August, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia increased exports of petroleum products by 16.0%, although production volumes fell by 1.0%, and reduced crude oil exports by 7.0%, preferring the sale of finished products and obtaining more profit. According to the World Bank report, in the fourth quarter the average oil price will reach $90.0 per barrel, but by the end of the year it will drop to $81.0 per barrel.
- Resistance levels: 88.70, 94.20.
- Support levels: 83.70, 78.20.