EUR/USD: euro continues the bearish trend that began last week
During the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair is testing the level of 1.0614, continuing the "bearish" trend that began in the middle of the previous week. Then the euro fell from a peak of 1.0885, not finding support in the latest macroeconomic data.
In February, the indicator of industrial production in monthly terms was adjusted from -3.0% to 0.8%, and in annual terms from -6.6% to -6.4%. The March wholesale price index in Germany remained at the level of the previous month (+0.2%), maintaining an annual decline of -3.0%. Today at 11:00 GMT (+2), the report of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on the current state of the German economy is expected to be published, the indicator is projected to improve from -80.5 to a higher level, and the index of economic sentiment may rise from 31.7 to 35.9 points. On Wednesday, key data on consumer inflation in the eurozone for March will come to the market, it is expected that they will confirm the previous level of 0.8% monthly growth and 2.4% annual growth. Representatives of the European Central Bank, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, are also scheduled to speak on this day.
- Resistance levels: 1.0656, 1.0790.
- Support levels: 1.0590, 1.0460.
USD/CAD: reaching new peaks before the release of Canadian inflation data
The USD/CAD currency pair is showing unstable growth, trying to overcome the 1.3800 level. Market activity on Tuesday morning remains limited in anticipation of new inflation data in Canada, which is due to be published at 14:30 GMT (+2). The monthly consumer price index for March is projected to increase from 0.3% to 0.7%, and the annual inflation rate will increase from 2.8%.
The core inflation indicators from the Bank of Canada remain close to the target values, with the February core inflation rate at 2.1% per annum. The expected statistics on the number of new buildings in Canada started in the reporting month — an important indicator for the country's construction sector - also attracts attention. It is expected that the number of construction projects started will increase from 223.6 thousand to 227.0 thousand, which will potentially strengthen the Canadian dollar.
The day promises to be full of speeches by key monetary policy figures, including Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and head of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem, who can comment on the current policy prospects of their institutions. Market expectations regarding the reduction of interest rates in the United States tend to the fact that the Fed will maintain current rates in June, with a possible easing only by September, with a forecast of only two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, instead of three, as previously assumed.
- Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3853, 1.3900, 1.3950.
- Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3616.
GBP/USD: pound stabilized at the low levels of November 2023
The GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a moderate decline, stabilizing around the level of 1.2430, which corresponds to the low values recorded on November 17, 2023.
The British currency is currently under pressure from the latest data on the state of the UK labor market: the unemployment rate over the past three months has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, the employment rate has decreased by 156.0 thousand, which turned out to be worse than the previous value of -89.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in March increased from 4.1 thousand to 10.9 thousand, although it turned out to be lower than the expected 17.2 thousand. At the same time, the average salary, including bonuses, increased by 5.6% in February, exceeding forecasts of 5.5%.
On Wednesday at 8:00 GMT (+2), inflation data for March is expected to be published in the UK: the annual consumer price index is projected to decrease from 3.4% to 3.1%, and the monthly increase by 0.6%. The core index, which does not take into account food and energy, may decrease from 4.5% to 4.1%, which will strengthen market expectations regarding a possible reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England. The retail price index is projected to fall from 4.5% to 4.2%. Last week, Megan Green, a member of the bank's board, warned investors that the transition to a softer monetary policy would take time, given the high rate of price growth in the service sector. A number of representatives of the British central bank, including its chairman Andrew Bailey, are expected to speak tomorrow to discuss the latest economic data.
- Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2539, 1.2573.
- Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.
NZD/USD: significant potential for strengthening the fall of the currency pair
The NZD/USD currency pair has fallen below the support level of 0.5946 and is moving towards 0.5865 amid the strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies after the release of positive macroeconomic data.
Traders will closely monitor the release of data on the New Zealand consumer price index for the first quarter, which will be published on Wednesday at 00:45 GMT+2. The index is expected to show growth of 0.6% in the quarter. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand dollar may recover to the level of 0.5946. In case of negative developments, the NZD/USD will continue to decline to the next support level of 0.5865, overcoming which will open the way to the level of 0.5789.
- Resistance levels: 0.5946, 0.6005, 0.6069.
- Support levels: 0.5865, 0.5789.