EURUSD: EU business data recovers losses
According to the data from the trading floors the EUR/USD currency pair is going to regain its positions, testing the level of 1.0648 against the background of the macroeconomic statistics release earlier.
Thus, business activity index in the manufacturing sector in Spain rose to 50.7 points from the previous 48.4 points and in Italy to 52.0 points from the previous 50.4 points. The same indicator in France and Germany moderated, showing 47.4 points and 46.3 points compared to 47.9 points and 46.5 points for 2022, respectively. Unemployment in Germany strengthened by only 2.0K in February against estimates of a 9.0K increase, allowing unemployment to remain at 5.5%, the previous month's reading, but February consumer price statistics showed an increase in the year-over-year harmonized index to 9.3% from 9.2%, with market expectations of a 9.0% correction, and month-to-month to 1.0% from 0.5%, beating analysts' forecast of 0.7%.
- Resistance levels: 1.0710 and 1.0920.
- Support levels: 1.0540, 1.0330.
USDCAD: The pair is in a mixed trend
USDCAD is showing moderate gains this morning, testing 1.3613, reversing the losses of the day before and being unable to consolidate near the local high of February 24.
The US dollar is supported by technical factors, meanwhile Wednesday macroeconomic data block did not provide any stimulus for the bulls. Thus, the S&P Global Manufacturing Index for February dropped to 47.3 points from 47.8 points, against the market expectations of zero fluctuation, while the business activity of the manufacturing sector, according to the Institute for Supply Management of the same period, strengthened to 47.7 points from 47.4, against the experts estimates of 48.0 points. Meanwhile, Canada's S&P Global similar index strengthened to 52.4 points from 51.0 points, against expectations of a drawdown to 50.1 points.
- Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800.
- Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.
USDJPY: a digital currency test was announced in Japan
Trading instrument USDJPY traded with moderate growth in quotations, being in the area of 136.45 developing success. The pair continues to remain near the local highs of December 20, but the "bulls" are not trying to resume activity in recent days.
The yen got some support from the Japanese statistics according to which the consumer confidence index for February has corrected to 31.1 points against the previous 31.0 points, with the negative forecast to 30.5 points and the total capital spending index for Q4 last year decreased to 7.7% from the previous 9.8%, beating the forecast of 2.8%. By the end of the week, investors expect February consumer price and unemployment data as well as the business activity index. As follows from the preliminary estimates, the consumer inflation in the region of the Japanese capital outside of the food group goods sector may rise to 4.5% in February from 4.3%.
Japan's top regulator has confirmed the launch of the central bank's digital currency tests from April, which will take place in several stages to study different types of e-yen transactions and its introduction into the national financial system. The second stage will involve the private sector in the tests in order to get feedback from businesses and upgrade the CBDC functionality.
- Resistance levels: 136.50, 137.50, 138.50, 139.58.
- Support levels: 135.57, 134.50, 133.61, 133.00.
USDCHF: The franc is under pressure
Local strengthening of the American currency and weakness of the franc, which is under pressure from macroeconomic data, has been a negative factor for the USDCHF, which is testing 0.9422.
Investors were disappointed by the recent statistics on Swiss Gross Domestic Product, which showed zero correction for Q4 2022, against estimate of 0.1% growth, which was the driver for keeping the annual rate at 0.8% against the 1.0% forecast. Among other reasons for the weakened value, investors cited retail sales, which lost 2.2% in January, as expected by experts. Moreover, the business activity index declined to 48.9 points from 49.3 points, missing the positive market forecast of 50.4 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.9480, 0.9620.
- Support levels: 0.9360, 0.9190.