Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Friday, June 7, 2024

EUR/USD: macroeconomic data did not contribute to the strengthening of the euroAlthough the US dollar is showing a decline, the EUR/USD exchange rate continues to follow the corrective trend, being at the level of 1.0837.The latest macroeconomic data did not support the euro: in July, the business activity index in the French manufacturing sector fell from 45.4 to 44.1 points, in Germany the decline was from 43.5 to 42.6 points. In the French services sector, the index improved from 49.6 to 50.7 points, while in Germany it decreased from 53.1 to 52.0 points, which led to a correction in the overall indicators for the eurozone from 45.8 to 45.6 points in the manufacturing sector and from 51.9 to 45.6 points in services. As a result, the composite index fell from 50.4 to 48.7 points, returning to the deterioration zone for the first time since March, indicating a slowdown in the Eurozone economy. This, in turn, increases the chances of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in September and December. Meanwhile, the GfK Group consumer climate index improved from -21.6 to -18.4 points in August, exceeding expectations of -21.1 points amid slowing inflation and improving household incomes due to wage growth.Resistance levels: 1.0909, 1.1021.Support levels: 1.0793, 1.0708.GBP/USD: pound rose on business activity dataAfter a significant rise at the beginning of the month, the GBP/USD exchange rate is now falling against the background of a temporary correction of the US dollar, remaining at 1.2888 during the Asian session.The pound is supported by macroeconomic data: the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector increased from 50.9 to 51.8 points, and in the services sector — from 52.1 to 52.4 points, which led to an improvement in the composite index from 52.3 to 52.7 points. This gives investors reason to expect further strengthening of the national currency until next week, when data on the labor and real estate markets will be published. Such indicators are a recovery from the period of instability caused by the recent parliamentary elections and may contribute to accelerating GDP growth. Nevertheless, most experts believe that the Bank of England will not begin active measures until autumn.Resistance levels: 1.2930, 1.3040.Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2750.AUD/USD: According to Roy Morgan, tax cuts will reduce mortgage pressureThe AUD/USD exchange rate stabilized at 0.6547, moving within the framework of an "expanding" pattern with boundaries of 0.6800–0.6300.Analysts are assessing possible actions by the Australian monetary authorities. Deutsche Bank expressed doubts about achieving the inflation target of 2.0–3.0% in the foreseeable future, which is confirmed by the data of the Melbourne Institute survey, where only 15% of participants believe in an early recovery of inflation after the pandemic. Experts from Roy Morgan believe that the tax cuts that have begun will significantly reduce the proportion of households experiencing mortgage stress if the labor market remains stable and the Reserve Bank of Australia does not raise interest rates. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country reached 4.1% in June, which makes a correction in the cost of loans less likely, but persistent inflation may stimulate an increase in rates by 25 basis points at the August meeting, creating an additional burden for homeowners. According to RoyMorgan statistics, the number of mortgage borrowers facing late payments increased to 1.6 million or 30.3% of the total, which is 88.0 thousand more compared to the previous month. The proportion of people especially vulnerable to risks (based on their debt service costs) exceeded 1.016 million people, or about 20%, which is significantly higher than the average level over the last decade of 14.5%. Despite a slight decrease, mortgage stress remains high. According to analysts at Westpac Banking Corp., the probability of an increase in the RBA's key rate is estimated at 30%, and the first reduction is not expected until August 2025. In addition, the business activity indices in manufacturing and services showed a correction from 47.2 to 47.4 points and from 51.2 to 50.8 points, respectively.Support levels: 0.6530, 0.6450.Resistance levels: 0.6570, 0.6660.USD/JPY: the prospect of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan stabilizes the yenThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues to fall for the third week in a row, influenced by differences in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, with the current level at around 152.00.The increasing likelihood of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan is supported by the latest data. The July figures indicate a strengthening of business activity, which may indicate a recovery in the country's economy. The consumer price index continues to exceed the target level, reaching 2.8% in June, with the base index at 2.6%. This allows the regulator to count on maintaining high inflation rates, which is facilitated by a significant increase in wages. According to information from Reuters, the Bank of Japan is expected to consider raising interest rates at its July 31 meeting, although specific measures may be postponed until the autumn.Resistance levels: 156.25, 159.37, 160.93.Support levels: 151.56, 150.00, 148.43, 146.87.

EUR/USD: analysts' expectations on the EU economy have not been metThe EUR/USD exchange rate is falling against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, reaching the level of 1.0832.Macroeconomic data did not confirm expectations, putting pressure on the euro: in July, the business activity index in the French manufacturing sector fell to 44.1 from the expected 45.4, and in Germany to 42.6 against the forecast of 43.5, which led to a decrease in the EU composite index from 45.8 to 45.6. In the French services sector, the indicator improved from 49.6 to 50.7, while in Germany it decreased from 53.1 to 52.0, which eventually lowered the pan-European index to 51.9.Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0830, 1.0750.GBP/USD: possible correction of the Bank of England's policy in AugustThe GBP/USD pair has been experiencing downward pressure for the second week, reaching 1.2890 during the Asian session.British investors are analyzing the latest employment data: in May, the unemployment rate was 4.4%, the employment rate increased by 19.0 thousand instead of the expected 18.0 thousand, the average salary with bonuses decreased from 5.9% to 5.7%, and without bonuses — also to 5.7%, which is the lowest since the summer of 2022. Analysts believe that these data are insufficient to convince conservative-minded members of the Bank of England that inflationary pressures are under control. However, monetary policy easing is possible at the August meeting, as inflation reached the target of 2.0%, and core inflation, excluding energy and food, approached 0.3%, well below the maximum of 0.9% at the beginning of last year. Two rate cuts of 25 basis points are forecast this year. Business activity data is published today at 10:30 (GMT+2): an increase in indicators in the manufacturing sector to 50.9 and in the service sector to 52.1 may support the British currency.The attention of American investors turned to political events: on Sunday, the current US President Joe Biden announced his refusal to participate in the elections, supporting Vice President Kamala Harris as the candidate of the Democratic Party, which has already gained the necessary number of votes for her nomination. Despite this, many experts see Donald Trump from the Republican Party as the winner, who, if he wins, can impose duties on Chinese goods and lower taxes, stimulating investment, which can accelerate inflation and slow down monetary policy easing. Today at 15:45 (GMT+2), data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the service sector are expected on the market, which may have an impact on the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.2939, 1.3061, 1.3183.Support levels: 1.2817, 1.2695, 1.2573.USD/JPY: Japanese Annual Core CPI settled at 2.1%The USD/JPY pair shows a steady decline, reaching the level of 154.58, while the market considers the current growth of the yen as corrective, caused by currency interventions of the Bank of Japan.At the same time, macroeconomic indicators remain disappointing: the core consumer price index remained at 2.1%, rising from 1.8% in May. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector decreased from 50.0 to 49.2 points in July, while in the services sector it improved from 49.4 to 53.9 points. Analysts point to the growing concern of Japanese politicians about the weakness of the national currency and their desire to influence the regulator in order to raise rates. However, at the July 31 meeting, Bank of Japan officials are expected to keep interest rates at the same level and consider the possibility of adjusting monetary policy only in the fall.Resistance levels: 155.40, 157.70.Support levels: 154.10, 151.80.USD/CAD: awaiting the Bank of Canada's rate decisionsThe USD/CAD pair continues to grow for the second week in a row, currently checking the level of 1.3793 (Murray [8/8]). The Canadian dollar is under pressure on the eve of the Bank of Canada meeting, where an interest rate cut from 4.75% to 4.50% is possible. This decision may be due to the latest inflation data for June, which showed a decrease to 2.7% from 2.9% year-on-year and an increase in unemployment from 6.2% to 6.4%. Given these factors, additional monetary policy easing seems justified, especially after statements by the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, about the possibility of reducing the cost of borrowing with a slowdown in consumer price growth. The regulator's goal is to achieve a "soft landing" of the economy, avoiding a sharp increase in unemployment.As a result, an increase in the USD/CAD exchange rate in the near future looks like the most likely development.Resistance levels: 1.3793, 1.3855, 1.3916.Support levels: 1.3732, 1.3671, 1.3610.

EUR/USD: ECB rates will remain high until 2% inflationDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD rate retreated from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.0960–1.0710, stabilizing near the level of 1.0889.The European Central Bank (ECB) intends to maintain high interest rates until inflation returns to the 2.0% target. This happens after rates were lowered in June for the first time since 2019, while the rate on basic refinancing operations was set at 4.25%, on margin loans — 4.50%, and on deposits — 3.75%. Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, said that the economic growth of the region is likely to slow down in the next quarter due to weak investment activity and limited increase in production capacity. She also stressed that monetary policy decisions will depend on current economic statistics, including wage dynamics, corporate profits and the state of the service sector. Lagarde also acknowledged that a possible deterioration in the geopolitical situation could lead to an increase in energy prices and an increase in transportation costs, which would put additional pressure on the consumer price index. However, if current data confirm the deflationary trend, it will strengthen the ECB's confidence in achieving the inflation target of 2.0% by the end of 2025. In this context, analysts expect two more rate adjustments this year, with the first change 80% likely to occur within the next two months.Support levels: 1.0860, 1.0760.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1060.GBP/USD: preliminary expectation of business activity dataAfter a significant rise last week, the GBP/USD exchange rate is declining due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the current level of which is 1.2927.The publication of primary data on business activity indices will take place tomorrow at 10:30 (GMT+2). It is expected that the indicator in the manufacturing sector will increase from 50.9 to 51.1, and in the service sector from 52.1 to 52.5, which will bring the composite index to 52.3. This improvement, following the decline in June, may contribute to the strengthening of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The impact of US President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the elections is gradually decreasing, giving way to the importance of economic statistics, which will become the basis for decision-making at the Fed meeting on July 31. Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on statistics on sales volumes in the secondary housing market — a key indicator for the real estate sector. According to forecasts, volumes may decrease from 4.11 million to 3.99 million after a previous decrease of 0.7%. If this is confirmed, Fed officials will probably rule out easing monetary policy at the upcoming meeting, leaving interest rates at a high level until mid-September.Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3070.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2780.NZD/USD: trade data increases pressure on the New Zealand dollarThe NZD/USD exchange rate continues to decline, approaching the level of 0.5967 against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar and disappointing data from New Zealand.Yesterday, foreign trade indicators were presented, which indicated a decrease in activity: exports in June decreased to 6.17 billion New Zealand dollars compared to 7.00 billion, and imports decreased to 5.47 billion from the previous 6.94 billion New Zealand dollars. The monthly trade balance improved to NZ$699.0 million from NZ$54.0 million, but the annual balance still shows a deficit of NZ$-9.400 billion. Data on credit card spending, an important indicator of consumer demand, is expected tomorrow. The ongoing negative trend may indicate a lack of growth prospects for the New Zealand dollar in the near future.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5870.Resistance levels: 0.5990, 0.6060.USD/CAD: experts predict a rate cut by the Bank of CanadaThe USD/CAD currency pair continues to grow for the second week in a row, trading within the long-term ascending channel and is currently checking the level of 1.3763 amid expectations of the next actions of the financial authorities of Canada and the United States.Analysts assume that the Bank of Canada will maintain its soft monetary policy at the July meeting, the results of which will be announced tomorrow at 15:45 (GMT+2). The interest rate is expected to decrease from 4.75% to 4.50% amid a decrease in inflation from 2.9% to 2.7% on an annual basis and an increase in unemployment from 6.2% to 6.4% in June. The growth of the labor force and the reduction in the level of hiring influenced the acceleration of unemployment to 1.6% compared with the minimum values of July 2022. The high cost of loans is putting significant pressure on households, as the share of debt service costs has reached its highest level in the last 30 years, contributing only to a modest 1.0% recovery in the Canadian economy this year. These conditions create the prerequisites for a possible reduction in the interest rate by 50 basis points by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 1.3763, 1.3824, 1.3855.Support levels: 1.3671, 1.3610, 1.3549.

USD/CAD: Biden's refusal to participate in the elections strengthened the dollarAmid the active strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing growth, approaching the 1.3730 mark.The Canadian dollar did not find support after the recent publication of retail sales data, which showed a decline of 0.8% to 66.1 billion Canadian dollars in May. Sales fell in eight of the nine industries, with a particularly noticeable decline in the food and beverage sector. The base indicator decreased from 1.2% to -1.4%, with a noticeable decrease in income in all major categories, including food (-1.9%) and alcoholic beverages (-3.3%). There was also a decrease in the e-commerce segment by 3.6% to 3.9 billion Canadian dollars, which is 5.9% of total sales, compared with 6.1% previously.The US dollar maintains its position at 104.00 USDX, having successfully recovered from last week's decline. Joe Biden recently announced his refusal to participate in the next presidential election, explaining this decision in the interests of his party and naming Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. This event increases the chances of the election of Republican candidate Donald Trump, which may lead to expected changes in economic policy and support the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3850.Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3600.USD/JPY: trading data did not support the yenDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY exchange rate strengthened, moving away from the supporting range of 161.70–156.00 and stabilizing at 157.12.The Japanese currency was weakened by the latest data on foreign trade: exports increased by 5.4% in June, falling short of the expected 6.4% and significantly inferior to last month's growth of 13.5%. This is the seventh consecutive month of export growth, but it turned out to be the weakest since the end of the previous year. Imports increased by 3.2%, which is significantly lower than the projected 9.3%. Nevertheless, the trade balance remained in surplus at 224.0 billion yen.At the end of last week, the market reacted to the US labor market data. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 243.0 thousand, which exceeded both the projected 229.0 thousand and the previous figure of 223.0 thousand. The total number of recipients of state support also increased from 1.847 million to 1.867 million, which reinforces expectations of rate regulation at the September meeting. According to the estimates of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) instrument FedWatch Tool, the probability of this is 94.0%.Support levels: 156.20, 152.90.Resistance levels: 158.30, 160.70.AUD/USD: the rate retreats from the upper limit of the expanding patternIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar, the Australian dollar/AUD/USD is experiencing a decline, with the current exchange rate of 0.6664.The Australian currency is weakening after the latest reports on the state of the labor market: the unemployment index, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, excluding seasonal factors, it remained at 4.0%. Labor force participation increased slightly from 66.8% to 66.9%, then stabilized at 66.8%. The number of full-time employees decreased by 43.3 thousand to 9.944 million, while the number of part-time employees decreased by 6.8 thousand to 4.461 million. This trend supports a negative mood in the labor market, which prevents the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from taking decisive action. As a result, investors do not expect a reduction in interest rates in the near future, which further puts pressure on the Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 0.6680, 0.6760.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6580.Gold market analysisGold quotes have again reached the level of 2400.0, but this week the price is influenced by key economic factors.Changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve System have a significant impact on the price of gold, which may decide to cut rates as early as September, reducing them by 25 basis points. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will switch to a more lenient policy at the September 18 meeting already reaches 91.7%. In addition, the recent decision of US President Joe Biden not to participate in the election campaign also helps to strengthen opinion about a possible reduction in interest rates this year, especially in the context of Donald Trump's possible return to power and his plans to reform the national economy.Support levels: 2385.0, 2290.0.Resistance levels: 2420.0, 2480.0.

EUR/USD: the results of the ECB monetary meeting will be announced todayIn the Asian session, the EUR/USD exchange rate stabilized at 1.0928, while investors refrain from active trading, awaiting the outcome of today's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for 14:15 GMT+2.Analysts assume that the ECB will continue its policy of lowering interest rates, confirming this with a possible adjustment in September, followed by a regular reduction in rates every quarter. ECB President Christine Lagarde regularly focuses on the importance of taking into account the macroeconomic situation in making key decisions. So, in June, there was an upward revision of inflation expectations: it is assumed that in 2024 inflation will be 2.5%, and in 2025 it will be 2.2%, with basic indicators of 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. In the latest report for June, inflation remained at 0.2% on a monthly basis and decreased from 2.6% to 2.5% on an annual basis. Core inflation registered 0.4% monthly growth, which is higher than the forecast of 0.3%, and the level of 2.9% in annual terms. Despite the growing price pressures in the services sector, ECB representatives may increase caution in adjusting monetary policy. Surveys indicate a slowdown in wage growth to less than 4% by the end of the year, which, according to the regulator, will help achieve the inflation target of 2% in the first half of 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0945, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0803, 1.0742, 1.0645.USD/CAD: inflation data did not strengthen the position of the Canadian dollarDuring the current trading session, the USD/CAD pair demonstrates a downward correction, reaching the level of 1.3678 against the background of a noticeable weakening of the US dollar.Not being supported by inflation data, the Canadian currency showed moderate reactive growth. Information on the decline in the consumer price index in Canada turned out to be better than expected, but did not reach a level capable of influencing monetary policy. In June, the index decreased by 0.1% monthly and from 2.9% to 2.7% per annum. The basic indicator, excluding food and energy, increased slightly from 1.8% to 1.9% in monthly and annual terms. This dynamics led to an overall decrease in the inflation index from 2.4% to 2.3%, without becoming a key factor for changing the key rate of the Bank of Canada, which continues to carefully analyze the situation in the labor and real estate markets.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3790.Support levels: 1.3660, 1.3590.Silver market analysisThe price of silver is steadily rising, reaching the 30.40 mark, against the background of moderate growth in the market.Silver retains some backwardness from gold, which continues to update highs, due to relatively weak demand on industrial exchanges. In conditions of political instability, when investors have limited resources of available funds, preference is given to more reliable assets. Data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) shows that the current trading volume of silver futures is 72.3 thousand lots, whereas in June this figure was in the range of 130.0–140.0 thousand lots. A recent report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also reflects a slowdown in dynamics: over the week, the volume of purchases from manufacturers increased by only 0.133 thousand, and sales increased by 3.125 thousand, indicating potentially low volatility of silver in the near future.Resistance levels: 30.76, 32.14.Support levels: 30.00, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian session, the price of WTI crude oil is held at $81.86 per barrel, influenced by China's economic statistics.China's GDP increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of this year, compared with growth of 5.3% in the previous quarter and a projected 5.1%. The decline in retail sales in June from 3.7% to 2.0% — below the expected 3.3% — raises concerns about slowing economic growth in the world's second largest economy and falling demand for oil from the leading importer. According to the data, imports of crude oil in China decreased both monthly and annually, which confirms the assumption that demand has reached a peak amid the rapid development of the electric vehicle market in the country. The news that the US and the EU are imposing new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is heightening trade tensions.Nevertheless, statistics on oil reserves provide some support for prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a decrease in reserves from 1.923 million barrels to 4.440 million barrels, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted a decrease in reserves by 4.870 million barrels from the previous 3.443 million barrels, exceeding the forecast reduction of 0.900 million barrels.Support levels: 80.00, 76.80.Resistance levels: 82.40, 85.10.

EUR/USD: ZEW report indicates worsening economic conditions in GermanyThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of a weakening US dollar, maintaining the level of 1.0902 during the Asian session. At the same time, the European currency does not show a significant improvement in its position this week due to economic data indicating continued difficulties in the main EU economies.The latest report from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) showed that the index of current economic conditions in Germany in July was -68.9 points, which is an improvement from the previous value of -73.8 points, but the indicator of economic sentiment fell to 41.8 points from 47.5 points. The index of economic sentiment in the EU also fell to 43.7 points, reaching the level of April lows. ZEW President Achim Wambach commented on the data, pointing to a deterioration in the economic outlook due to lower exports, political uncertainty in France and uncertainty about the future policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, the ECB household survey showed an increase in loan requests, which indicates expectations of a soft monetary policy. Despite some improvement in inflation indicators, economic stability in the EU remains weak, which prevents a more significant growth of the euro.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0800.Resistance levels: 1.0922, 1.1010.AUD/USD: In Australia, households anticipate an increase in mortgage rates for 2025During Asian trading, the AUD/USD pair stabilized around the value of 0.6737.The Australian dollar is strengthening as market participants expect further interest rate hikes in light of the latest data from Westpac Banking Corp., which showed a drop in consumer sentiment to a new low: the index fell by 1.1%, reaching 82.7 points compared with the previous 83.6 points. Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan pointed to a steady decline in sentiment over the past two years, despite significant government attempts to adjust tariffs as part of tax reforms to support low- and middle-income citizens. Concerns about ongoing inflation and a possible further increase in interest rates are once again beginning to put increased pressure on consumer sentiment, neutralizing any positive effects from financial support. The weighted average consumer price index in Australia rose from 3.60% to 4.00% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.80%. In light of this, more households are starting to expect an increase in mortgage rates in the next 12 months, with this figure already reaching almost 60.0% in June. Also, the latest decline in Australian dairy exports by 17.0% and an increase in imports by 19.0% are partly due to China's efforts to increase domestic production through significant public investment, which reduces dependence on imported goods. Labor market data for June will be published on Thursday at 3:30 (GMT+2): unemployment is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.1% and full-time employment growth will slow from 39.7 thousand to 20.0 thousand, which will confirm the stability of the sector in the face of tight monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).Support levels: 0.6715, 0.6628.Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6850.GBP/USD: UK consumer price index fell to 0.2% in the month to JuneThe GBP/USD pair stabilized at 1.2968 after a significant rise last week caused by the weakening of the US dollar.The pound maintains a moderate growth rate in light of the latest inflation data, which reached 2.0% in June, repeating the figure of the previous month and consolidating within 1.5–2.0% for the first time in several years. Excluding the cost of fuel and food, the core price index remained at 3.5% year-on-year, falling from 0.5% to 0.2% month-on-month. The stability of inflation in the target corridor of the Bank of England creates prerequisites for a transition to a softer monetary policy. It is expected that at the meeting on August 1, officials may reduce the interest rate from the current 5.25% to 5.00%.Resistance levels: 1.3010, 1.3170.Support levels: 1.2910, 1.2740.USD/JPY: IMF revised Japan's GDP estimate for 2024The USD/JPY pair is on the verge of exiting the long-term upward channel, falling to the level of 157.81. The slowdown in economic growth in the United States and a decrease in inflation are putting pressure on the US dollar, which may lead to a change in monetary policy.Tomorrow, traders will closely monitor the updated data on Japan's foreign trade: it is expected that at 01:50 (GMT+2) statistics will be published showing a decrease in exports from 13.5% to 6.4% and imports from 9.5% to 9.3%, which will affect the slowdown in the fall in the trade balance from -1220.1 billion yen to -240.0 billion yen. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made adjustments to Japan's economic growth forecast, reducing it from 0.9% to 0.7% amid problems with car supplies related to the Daihatsu Motor Co. scandal and weak private investment in the first quarter.Resistance levels: 159.37, 160.93, 162.50, 164.06.Support levels: 157.81, 156.25, 154.68.

EUR/USD: a drop in the consumer price index in the EU has been recordedThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, with the current quote at 1.0895. The euro is expected to strengthen this week thanks to encouraging economic data.In particular, in France, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% in June compared to the previous month, slowing annual growth from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the harmonized index, which meets EU standards, decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. In Spain, the indicator also adjusted, showing monthly growth of 0.4% and a decrease in annual inflation from 3.6% to 3.4%. The decrease in inflation in Germany confirms the slowdown in the overall inflation rate in the region, which will allow officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) to avoid a rush to adjust monetary policy and maintain current interest rates for the near future.Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing a weakening, with quotes at 103.80 on the USDX index. Recently, the University of Michigan reported a decrease in the consumer expectations index from 69.6 to 67.2 points and a deterioration in the consumer sentiment index from 68.2 to 66.0 points, while the indicator of current conditions also decreased from 65.9 to 64.1 points. This trend points to consumer expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0760.GBP/USD: pound is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.2972 in a monthOver the past month, the GBP/USD pair has seen strengthening, maintaining at around 1.2972.Unlike the US Federal Reserve System, where the prospects for rate cuts are growing, the Bank of England shows a tendency to stabilize the cost of borrowing, which contributes to the strengthening of the pound. UK GDP growth in monthly terms amounted to 0.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 0.2%, and reached 1.4% year-on-year, ahead of forecasts at 1.2%. This supports the risks of renewed acceleration of inflation, forcing Bank of England officials to adhere to a cautious policy. At the moment, only a few board members, including Swati Dhingra, are in favor of stepping up action, while most, including Catherine Mann and Hugh Pill, are not yet ready to adjust policy. Consequently, analysts estimate the probability of a change in interest rates in August as unlikely so far, at the level of 50%.Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.Support levels: 1.2750, 1.2573, 1.2451.NZD/USD: New Zealand assessed the consequences of tight monetary policyDuring Asian trading, the NZD/USD pair fluctuates in the range of 0.6140–0.6075, approaching its lower limit. The market is closely monitoring the actions of the New Zealand monetary authorities in anticipation of new incentives for movement.Last week brought no changes in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have remained at 5.50% since May 2023 — for the eighth time in a row. However, due to tight monetary policy, the inflation rate has been reduced, and it is expected that by the end of the year they will return to the target range from 1.0% to 3.0%. The easing of tension in the labor market indicates a more cautious approach by companies to hiring and an increase in the supply of labor. Also in June, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 47.2 to 41.1 points, and retail sales by electronic cards improved from -1.2% to -0.6% monthly and from -1.6% to -4.9% per annum. New data on inflation and the state of the labor market are expected in the coming weeks, which will have a significant impact on monetary decisions. In particular, this Friday at 00:45 GMT+2, the market will assess the quarterly dynamics of the consumer price index: a decrease from 0.6% to 4.0% per annum is expected, which may affect the RBNZ's decision to cut rates in August and weaken the New Zealand dollar. Analysts assume that the first rate cut of 25 basis points will occur in October, and the second is likely in November.Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6225, 0.6286.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6010, 0.5981.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation data for June will be published soonThe USD/CAD pair is approaching the level of 1.3657, waiting for news from Canada that may affect the exchange rate.Tomorrow at 14:30 GMT+2, June inflation figures are expected, which will become key for the future monetary policy of the Bank of Canada. Analysts foresee a decrease in annual inflation from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the monthly index may accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%. Core inflation is expected to fall from 1.8% in a month, and annual inflation from 0.6%, which may contribute to a transition to a more lenient policy. Such changes will reduce the cost of debt servicing, stimulating consumer and investment spending, which will contribute to economic recovery. Statistics on new homes launched in June will also be published, with a projected decrease from 264.5 thousand to 260.0 thousand, which may affect the value of the Canadian dollar.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3480.Resistance levels: 1.3680, 1.3780.

EUR/USD: euro stabilizes at its local peaksThe EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading trends, being near the 1.0870 mark. On the previous day, the euro actively increased in value, updating the maximum values since June 7, but could not hold on to new heights, losing some of the acquired positions by the end of the day. By Friday morning, market activity had significantly decreased.Meanwhile, the latest data from Germany showed that the consumer price index in June remained at the level of 0.1% monthly increase and 2.2% annual growth, confirming the possibility of further interest rate adjustments by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, the results of a Reuters survey of leading economists indicate that the ECB may cut rates twice this year — in September and December. However, if inflation, especially in the services sector, stabilizes above the target level, the central bank may limit itself to one adjustment of its policy.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0844, 1.0820, 1.0800.GBP/USD: pound is growing on the back of good UK GDP dataDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair stabilizes around the level of 1.2915, while not staying at the recently updated annual highs. This happened after the publication of inflation data, which reinforced expectations of a near-term reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve. The consumer price index in June slowed to 3.0% per annum from 3.3%, falling short of the projected 3.1%, and the monthly dynamics decreased by 0.1% after stabilization in the previous month. Core inflation also declined, which, together with the latest labor market report indicating a downward revision in the number of jobs created in May, disappointed investors. In addition, the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, emphasized the need to assess the economic situation as a whole, which increases the chances of an interest rate cut in September. As a result, the markets expect two rate adjustments in 2024 of 25 basis points each.On the other hand, recent statistics from the UK showed GDP growth of 0.4% in May after stagnating in April, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The annual increase in industrial production was 0.4%, despite the previous fall of 0.7%, with a projected increase of 0.6%. The monthly figure was also in line with forecasts, accelerating by 0.2% after a 0.9% decline. Economic growth in the UK supports the risks of accelerating inflation and reduces the likelihood of an early reduction in the cost of borrowing by the Bank of England, especially given hints from members of its board about a possible continuation of current rates, including recent comments by Bank representative Catherine Mann and chief economist Hugh Pill about continued inflationary pressures, especially in the service sector, and significant wage growth, which makes a correction monetary policy is unlikely in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817, 1.2776.USD/CHF: annual inflation in the United States decreased to 3.0%The USD/CHF pair is at 0.8958, demonstrating a corrective decline against the background of the weakness of the US dollar and the stability of the Swiss franc caused by the lack of new macroeconomic data.Investors are analyzing the latest conversations between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and the Swiss head of the Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research Guy Parmelin. During the meeting, it was decided to deepen the free trade agreement, which became a key point in the context of trade restrictions caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. These restrictions have made it more difficult to export Swiss goods, and a new agreement to improve the terms of trade could significantly support the Swiss economy, given that China ranks third among its trading partners. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), last year's exports to China amounted to 40.6 billion francs, while imports amounted to 18.4 billion francs. The expansion of the trade agreement is expected to increase these volumes by at least 30%.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8840.USD/CAD: lower range heralds new lowsThe USD/CAD pair shows a slight decrease against the Canadian dollar, being at the level of 1.3620 in anticipation of new factors that could affect the exchange rate.Today, at 16:00 GMT+2, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the United States is expected to be published, projected at 68.5 points for July, which is slightly higher than the previous value of 68.2 points. Earlier at 14:30, investors will pay attention to data on production inflation for June, the expected growth of which will be from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and from -0.2% to 0.1% monthly, while the basic producer price index excluding food and energy should rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Yesterday's report on the consumer price index showed a slowdown from 3.3% to 3.0% per annum, which was below expectations of 3.1%, and the monthly change was 0.1% after stability in the previous month, contrary to forecasts of an increase of 0.1%. The base rate also decreased from 0.2% to 0.1% monthly and from 3.4% to 3.3% per annum. Given the declining dynamics of the labor market, the US Federal Reserve may reconsider its policy towards easing at the September meeting. In particular, recent data showed a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 239.0 thousand to 222.0 thousand, and repeated applications — from 1,856 million to 1,852 million, which is also lower than the expected 1,860 million.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3733.Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3588, 1.3550, 1.3524.