NZD/USD: consumer confidence from ANZ exceeded analytical forecasts
The NZD/USD currency pair is showing a slight drop, retreating after Friday's rise, when it managed to move away from the minimum values on February 14, now testing the 0.6100 level for a possible further decline. Traders are being cautious, waiting for new incentives for market movement.
The latest economic reports from New Zealand and Australia have attracted the attention of investors. The New Zealand trading Conditions report for the fourth quarter showed an unexpected drop of 7.8%, which is significantly worse than the previous indicator and analysts' forecasts. Data came from Australia on a decrease in inflation to 4.0% per annum in February, confirming the weakening of inflationary pressure.
The market is also digesting the latest statistics, including an increase in the New Zealand consumer confidence index from ANZ to 94.5 points and a marked decrease in the number of building permits in the country. Despite some positive changes in services and the agricultural sector, the manufacturing sector continues to experience difficulties. Experts note the increased investment interest in most industries and assume an increase in business costs in the next three years.
- Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6200.
- Support levels: 0.6076, 0.6049, 0.6030, 0.6000.
USD/CHF: movement within the uptrend 0.8890–0.8750
Given the stable position of the US dollar and the absence of influential economic reports from Switzerland, the USD/CHF pair continues to move in a corrective trend, being at the level of 0.8833.
The latest data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on retail sales for January showed a seasonally adjusted growth of 0.3% year-on-year and an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous month. The food and beverage sector is showing growth of 0.3%, while volumes in the non-food segment increased by 1.3%. Investors' attention was also attracted by the business activity index from procure.ch , which tracks the dynamics in the manufacturing sector and is a key indicator for assessing the country's economic climate. This index gained 44.0 points, which contributed to the strengthening of the Swiss franc.
- Resistance levels: 0.8870, 0.8980.
- Support levels: 0.8780, 0.8690.
USD/JPY: investors' expectations regarding the correction of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Japan in April
The USD/JPY currency pair showed moderate growth, continuing to follow the upward trend set at the end of last week. The currency pair is checking the 150.25 level for the possibility of an upward breakout, while market participants are carefully analyzing the latest economic reports from the United States and Japan. The results from the United States disappointed, showing a decrease in the ISM manufacturing activity index to 47.8 points from the previous 49.1, which was below analysts' expectations. At the same time, data from S&P Global indicated an increase in the index to 52.2 points, exceeding forecasts.
Japan presented mixed economic indicators, among which it is worth highlighting the stability of the Jibun Bank manufacturing activity index and the improvement in the consumer confidence index to 39.1 points. There was also a slight decrease in the unemployment rate and the maintenance of a high ratio of vacancies to the number of applicants. The new head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, called for caution in assessing the achievement of the inflation target and stressed the importance of upcoming wage data and negotiations with trade unions for future interest rate decisions. Given that inflation in Japan has been above 2% for more than a year, the market expects the Central Bank to end its policy of ultra-soft conditions by April, possibly raising rates from the current level of -0.10%.
- Resistance levels: 150.50, 151.00, 151.50, 152.00.
- Support levels: 150.00, 149.50, 148.89, 148.00.
Gold price analysis
The XAU/USD pair is seeing a slight decline, stabilizing near the 2080.00 indicator and retreating from the recently reached peak values for December 4. A significant jump in value was noted last Friday, triggered by the release of US economic reports and an increase in interest in buying physical gold from global central banks.
Analysts also highlighted a decrease in consumer confidence in February, which reinforced speculation about the possible introduction of measures to reduce the cost of borrowing by the Federal Reserve in the near future. The consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan fell from 79.6 to 76.9 points, which was below analysts' expectations. In parallel, the index of activity in the manufacturing sector, provided by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), showed a drop from 49.1 to 47.8 points, against the projected 49.5 points. Data on construction spending in January also indicated a 0.2% decrease after a significant 1.1% increase a month earlier, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% increase.
On Tuesday, markets will expect the publication of a report on business activity in the service sector from ISM, and on Wednesday, March 6, attention will switch to private sector employment data from ADP, as well as the monthly economic survey of the US Federal Reserve, known as the "Beige Book".
- Resistance levels: 2088.27, 2100.00, 2120.00, 2134.09.
- Support levels: 2065.00, 2050.00, 2039.21, 2030.00.