AUD/USD: the instrument expects positive signals
The Australian currency is showing an ambiguous trend, testing the 0.6960 mark. After the active growth of the last two sessions, the asset expects the release of July statistics on the employment market of the United States.
The day before, officials of the RBA and the UK regulator decided to raise base rates by 50 points, but such a move could not provide the expected support for their currencies. Market participants fear that this is a direct sign of the onset of a recession in the near future, and the "hawkish" policy of tightening monetary parameters does not show effectiveness in combating inflation. Slight support for the AUD/USD pair was provided against the background of the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics in Australia. Thus, the AiG services sector in July significantly strengthened to 51.7 points from the previous 48.8 points, which exceeded the average expectations of economists.
- Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150.
- Support levels: 0.6950, 0.6900, 0.6849, 0.6800.
USD/CAD: "American" shows positive dynamics
The US currency returned a positive trend within the framework of the "bullish" momentum received the day before, despite the release of ambiguous data in the US. Thus, the total volume of applications for registration of the status of unemployed for the last 7 days on July 29 strengthened to 260.0 thousand against the previous indicator of 254.0 thousand, not justifying the forecasts of experts by 1.0 thousand applications. The volume of secondary applications for the same period on July 22 increased to 1.416 million from the previous 1.368 million, which exceeded market expectations of 1.37 million applications.
- Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050.
- Support levels: 1.2850, 1.2800, 1.2750, 1.2700.
Gold Prices
Quotations of the precious metal are trading with steady growth, having successfully updated the local maximum of July 5. The asset is again striving to break through the resistance level of 1800.00, gaining support against the background of the onset of a recession on a global economic scale in the medium term. Panic has grown due to the results of the meeting of officials of the Bank of England, in which the participants of the meeting for the first time since 1995 to raise the interest rate by 0.50%, but the published cover letter contains disappointing expectations that may befall the British economy next year. Already in Q4, the economy of England is threatened with the onset of recession, and the result of 2023 will be a drawdown of national GDP to the level of 1.5%. The instrument received support due to the growing geopolitical tension in Taiwan. Official Beijing failed to cancel the working visit of US official Nancy Pelosi with warnings and threats, instead large-scale four-day military exercises were announced, which could affect the prospect of restoring supplies along logistics chains after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Oil Market Overview
During the Asian trading session, the price of WTI grade oil shows moderate growth, recovering losses incurred recently, which allowed updating the local indicator from the first numbers in February.
The instrument receives positive growth signals against the background of the OPEC+ decision to increase the level of production of "black gold" by 100 thousand barrels in daily terms. So, despite the pressure of officials from the United States, the cartel decided to refrain from the rapid pace of increasing production, wanting to maintain a balance in the world market. The negative dynamics in the asset is due to a sharp increase in reserves of raw materials in the United States. As follows from the published report of the EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy), as of July 29, the volume strengthened by 4.467 million. barrels, having previously shown a decrease of 4,523 in the previous period, contrary to analysts' expectations of a drop of 0.629 million barrels. The negative dynamics around the "black gold" are created by the prospects of falling demand in the long term due to the high probability of a recession on a global scale.
- Resistance levels: 90.00, 91.64, 93.97, 96.00.
- Support levels: 86.95, 85.00, 83.00, 81.00.