Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 5, for AUDUSD, USDCAD, WTI oil & Gold

AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 5, for AUDUSD, USDCAD, WTI oil & Gold

AUD/USD: the instrument expects positive signals

The Australian currency is showing an ambiguous trend, testing the 0.6960 mark. After the active growth of the last two sessions, the asset expects the release of July statistics on the employment market of the United States.

The day before, officials of the RBA and the UK regulator decided to raise base rates by 50 points, but such a move could not provide the expected support for their currencies. Market participants fear that this is a direct sign of the onset of a recession in the near future, and the "hawkish" policy of tightening monetary parameters does not show effectiveness in combating inflation. Slight support for the AUD/USD pair was provided against the background of the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics in Australia. Thus, the AiG services sector in July significantly strengthened to 51.7 points from the previous 48.8 points, which exceeded the average expectations of economists.

  • Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150.
  • Support levels: 0.6950, 0.6900, 0.6849, 0.6800.

USD/CAD: "American" shows positive dynamics

The US currency returned a positive trend within the framework of the "bullish" momentum received the day before, despite the release of ambiguous data in the US. Thus, the total volume of applications for registration of the status of unemployed for the last 7 days on July 29 strengthened to 260.0 thousand against the previous indicator of 254.0 thousand, not justifying the forecasts of experts by 1.0 thousand applications. The volume of secondary applications for the same period on July 22 increased to 1.416 million from the previous 1.368 million, which exceeded market expectations of 1.37 million applications.

  • Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050.
  • Support levels: 1.2850, 1.2800, 1.2750, 1.2700.

Gold Prices

Quotations of the precious metal are trading with steady growth, having successfully updated the local maximum of July 5. The asset is again striving to break through the resistance level of 1800.00, gaining support against the background of the onset of a recession on a global economic scale in the medium term. Panic has grown due to the results of the meeting of officials of the Bank of England, in which the participants of the meeting for the first time since 1995 to raise the interest rate by 0.50%, but the published cover letter contains disappointing expectations that may befall the British economy next year. Already in Q4, the economy of England is threatened with the onset of recession, and the result of 2023 will be a drawdown of national GDP to the level of 1.5%. The instrument received support due to the growing geopolitical tension in Taiwan. Official Beijing failed to cancel the working visit of US official Nancy Pelosi with warnings and threats, instead large-scale four-day military exercises were announced, which could affect the prospect of restoring supplies along logistics chains after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Oil Market Overview

During the Asian trading session, the price of WTI grade oil shows moderate growth, recovering losses incurred recently, which allowed updating the local indicator from the first numbers in February.

The instrument receives positive growth signals against the background of the OPEC+ decision to increase the level of production of "black gold" by 100 thousand barrels in daily terms. So, despite the pressure of officials from the United States, the cartel decided to refrain from the rapid pace of increasing production, wanting to maintain a balance in the world market. The negative dynamics in the asset is due to a sharp increase in reserves of raw materials in the United States. As follows from the published report of the EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy), as of July 29, the volume strengthened by 4.467 million. barrels, having previously shown a decrease of 4,523 in the previous period, contrary to analysts' expectations of a drop of 0.629 million barrels. The negative dynamics around the "black gold" are created by the prospects of falling demand in the long term due to the high probability of a recession on a global scale.

  • Resistance levels: 90.00, 91.64, 93.97, 96.00.
  • Support levels: 86.95, 85.00, 83.00, 81.00.
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Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 11, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD & Gold
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 11, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD & Gold USD/JPY: "American" develops positive dynamicsThe US currency is trying to win back losses. According to economists, on the eve of the dollar was trading actively falling, indicating the reason for the dominance of "bears" in the publication of macroeconomic data in the United States on inflation, which showed a slowdown from the previous indicator of 9.1% to 8.5% in July, which exceeded market expectations. Thanks to the positive data, market participants revised forecasts for further steps of correction of the key indicator by the US regulator in favor of a decrease in growth rates at a meeting in September. Previously, it was expected that the US Federal Reserve would raise the percentage by 0.75%, but in the present, experts admit a revision at 0.50%, which will help the world's first economy to neutralize the processes of recession.Resistance levels: 133.00, 134.00, 134.54, 135.57.Support levels: 132.00, 131.00, 130.00, 129.39.AUD/USD: The pair is trading in a bullish trendThe Australian currency is trading in a negative zone, moving away from its local maximum on June 10, reached earlier.The Australian dollar is under moderate pressure amid the release of statistics, according to inflation forecasts. The data published at the University of Melbourne for August were revised in favor of a decrease to 5.9% from the previous 6.3%, which gives reason to hope for a reduction in the tough position of the regulator on the issue of further interest rate increases in favor of a softer one. Meanwhile, the RBA announced the launch of a project with the help of which testing will be carried out to integrate the digital version of cash (CBDC). The Ministry confirmed the involvement of experts from DFCRC (Corporate Research Center for Digital Finance), together with whom a practical approach to the use of a crypto tool and the use of its economic benefits, taking into account technological, legal and regulatory nuances, will be studied throughout the year. According to the statement of the head of the regulator Michel Bullock, the success of the project will enable entrepreneurs to implement their projects with the help of innovative technologies. The results of testing are announced for August next year.Resistance levels: 0.7107, 0.7150, 0.7202, 0.7250.Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6950, 0.6900.NZD/USD: the instrument is held at the local maximumDuring morning trading, the NZD/USD asset is testing the 0.6400 mark, being at the local maximum on June 10, reached earlier.The New Zealand data released today did not provide the expected support for the instrument. Economists note an increase in the number of tourists visiting the country in June by 83.5%, contrary to analysts' expectations of a growth of 14.8%. Local easing of epidemiological measures makes it possible to hope that the economic tourism sector will become a driver of the flow of additional funds to the national budget, which was not the case last year due to strict quarantine restrictions.Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6433, 0.6500, 0.6535.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6300, 0.6200, 0.6146.Gold PricesThe cost of the bank metal shows negative dynamics, moving away from the local maximum on July 5, updated earlier.The asset retreated again from the threshold of fundamental resistance at the level of 1800.00. The strengthening of the instrument during Wednesday's trading session showed very limited potential, despite the weakening US dollar due to the release of statistics on consumer prices in the US. Thus, according to data for July, inflation left record levels, previously updated 9.1% to 8.5%, which exceeded market expectations. This gave investors an incentive to revise the forecasts made the day before on the pace of interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve during the summit in September. Now economists agree that the basic indicator will be increased by only 0.50%. However, gold will remain under pressure in any outcome because the officials of the department – Neil Kashkar and Charles Evans actively advocate the continuation of "hawkish" methods in the process of tightening monetary policy in the future.
Aug 11, 2022 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 10, for USDTRY, USDCAD, WTI oil & Silver
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Aug 10, 2022 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 9, for EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD & Gold
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 9, for EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD & Gold EUR/USD: "European" is trading without a single dynamicEuro shows mixed trading dynamics, being at the level of 1.0200. Traders are in no hurry to increase trading activity in anticipation of new signals for market movement.To date, there are no publications that can encourage investors to restore activity in the market. Analysts note that key publications on inflation in the US, China and Germany for July will be released on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates, economists expect a decrease in the growth rate of consumer prices in the United States to 8.7% from the previous level of 9.1%, giving the regulator the opportunity to raise the interest rate by 0.75% during the September meeting. Regarding Germany, the forecasts remain neutral, since analysts do not see any reasons for strong changes in the inflation rate from the previous 0.9% monthly and 7.5% for the year. But the PRC has risks of showing an increase in inflation to 0.5% from the previous 0.0% on a monthly basis and to 2.9% from 2.5% for the year.Resistance levels: 1.0200, 1.0253, 1.0300, 1.0350.Support levels: 1.0150, 1.0100, 1.0050, 1.0000.USD/CHF: the market expects consumer price statistics from the USADuring the trading of the Asia-Pacific countries, the USD/CHF instrument is testing the 0.9550 mark, waiting for additional signals of further growth.The Swiss franc has received restrained support thanks to national macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the published indicators on the eve showed zero dynamics of changes in unemployment, which now stands at 2.2%, which remains a strong indicator for the country. For the Swiss Central Bank, the reason for tightening monetary policy continues to be rising inflation, which has successfully consolidated above the threshold of 3.0%, which does not prevent investors from now putting into the value of the franc probable increases in basis points within the framework of the announced meeting of the regulator on September 22. It is expected that then the US Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9762, 0.9847.Support levels: 0.9520, 0.9469, 0.9400, 0.9300.GBP/USD: the dollar started the week with a correctionThe British currency shows mixed dynamics, being at the level of 1.2080. The GBP/USD instrument is attempting to restore positions with the onset of the current week, after a strong fall the day before, where the US dollar gained a positive momentum due to the release of data on the strong employment market in July.At the same time, the Postal service of England (Royal Mail), which also provides a range of banking services to the subjects of the Kingdom, notes the active withdrawal of funds from personal accounts by residents of the UK in a record figure of 801.0 million pounds, which is 20% higher than the same period last year. Representatives of Royal Mail associate such indicators with the active use of transport for movement within the country and the intention of customers to transfer their savings into cash for more detailed planning of their travel budgets within the current difficult situation in the national economy. This year, more than 68% of Britons who took a vacation spoke in favor of the need to keep fiat money in their hands. But economists note that this trend is temporary, because there is an irreversible process of popularization of digital tools both in the matter of investment and when paying for goods and services.Resistance levels: 1.2133, 1.2236, 1.2292, 1.2400.Support levels: 1.2054, 1.2000, 1.1933, 1.1854.Gold PricesQuotes of the precious metal are trading with multidirectional dynamics in the session on Tuesday, trying to overcome the solid resistance level of 1800.00.Earlier, the asset made attempts to cross this psychological level, enlisting the support of corrective sentiment against the US dollar. At the same time, market participants took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the release of the main data on the US inflation rate by the middle of the week. The key expectations of economists are inclined in favor of the retreat of inflation from record thresholds, thereby justifying the policy of the "hawks" from the US Federal Reserve. Under favorable circumstances of the macroeconomic background, the "American" will significantly strengthen its position, and investors can focus their attention around the risks of a recession in the United States. Economists note that the reduction in consumer price pressure will signal the US regulator to continue the course of tightening monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1775.00, 1784.31, 1800.00, 1816.62.Support levels: 1752.87, 1730.00, 1720.00, 1700.00.
Aug 09, 2022 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 8, for AUDUSD, USDJPY, Brent oil & Gold
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Aug 08, 2022 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 4, for EURUSD, USDCAD, Brent oil & Silver
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Aug 04, 2022 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 3, for EURUSD, NZDUSD, WTI crude oil & Silver
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Aug 03, 2022 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 2, for AUDUSD, USDCAD, Brent crude oil & Gold
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, USD/INR, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 2, for AUDUSD, USDCAD, Brent crude oil & Gold AUD/USD: the Australian regulator continues to tighten monetary policyInvestors decided to close long-term deals before the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) summit, during which, according to preliminary expectations, officials decided to raise the interest rate by 0.50%, reaching the target level of 1.85%. Commenting on their decision, representatives of the department noted the need to continue tough measures to combat inflation in the future. The Central Bank's expectations allow for a further increase in consumer prices by the end of 2022, updating the 7.5% mark, and next year consumer inflation may be reduced to 4.0%, which will allow in 2024 to return to the required indicator of 2.0-3.0%. The board members also noted strong data on the labor market, which is under pressure from the slowdown in economic growth, which is why the regulator allows a moderate increase in unemployment in 2024 to 4.0%, instead of the current level of 3.5% - the minimum for the last 50 years. Officials did not give an assessment of further actions to tighten monetary policy, only referring to the fact that actions will be taken according to the current situation in the economy.Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150.Support levels: 0.6950, 0.6900, 0.6849, 0.6800.USD/CAD: bulls gained an advantage in the pairThe US currency is moving in an upward trend within the "bullish" momentum formed the day before. The USD/CAD instrument reached the level of 1.2860 with the prospect of further strengthening, updating the maximum on July 28.Market participants focused their attention around statistics on consumer price growth, the rapid strengthening in Q2 of which leaves no doubt that the Central Bank of Canada will go for further tightening of monetary policy already at the meeting on September 7. A month earlier, the regulator had already raised the rate by 1 point, which helped the indicator to approach the 2.5% mark, showing the most significant correction of the last 20 years. According to the results of a study published by the Angus Reid Institute, about 53% of Canadians positively assessed the regulator's strategy to combat inflation, and 75% of respondents note that they will have to refrain from large purchases next year due to the rising cost of goods.Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2850, 1.2800, 1.2750, 1.2700.Gold PricesThe quotes of the banking metal are trading with a slight increase, within the framework of consolidation at the local maximum of July 5. The instrument reached 1770.00 with the prospect of further strengthening, which will be limited at the upper limits of resistance by the announced publication of the report for July on the US employment market. Preliminary estimates allow for a strong decline in new vacancies opened as a result of the strengthening of the economy – up to 250 thousand from the previous 372 thousand vacancies. The average wage per hour for July may also sink to 4.9% from 5.1%. But the indicator of the number of unemployed will maintain zero dynamics at the level of the previous 3.6% mark. In the event that labor market statistics show results exceeding forecasts, the US Federal Reserve will have a more extensive range of tools for changing monetary policy at the autumn meetings. At the moment, it is predicted that the rate will change at the next meeting in the range of 0.50%-0.25%.Support levels: 1717.0, 1681.0.Resistance levels: 1752.0, 1808.0.Oil Market OverviewDuring the trading session of the Asia-Pacific countries, Brent black gold shows a slight decrease within the bearish momentum, being at the level of 98.60, having updated the local maximum of July 25.Large investors are waiting for the meeting of the OPEC cartel, announced on Wednesday at 12:00 (GMT+2), at which the giants of the producers of raw materials will have the opportunity to make a correction in production volumes. At the present time, the cartel participants are not bound by any agreements to change the level of production, because all the agreements reached earlier have already expired. According to economists, the organization will try to avoid the imbalance in the world market, especially taking into account the instability of the world economy and the lack of stable growth indicators.Resistance levels: 100.00, 102.57, 106.00, 109.00.Support levels: 96.50, 93.34, 91.00, 89.00.
Aug 02, 2022 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, July 29, for AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDTRY & GBPUSD
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for today, July 29, for AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDTRY & GBPUSD AUD/USD: the development of an upward correctionThe Australian currency is revealing its growth potential against the US dollar thanks to the official confirmation that the economy has been in recession since September. At the time of writing, the tool is testing the 0.7000 level.The economic situation in Australia has all the signs of the same scenario, but the flexible policy of the national regulator, which combines tightening monetary strategy and continuing to buy government bonds on the market, has the prospect of success in the fight against inflation. Thus, the report released on the eve confirms that in June the volume of retail sales did not meet market expectations, showing an increase of only 0.2%, with forecasts of 0.5%, due to the situation with households that faced pressure due to rising consumer prices for goods and services. The export price index for Q2 reached 10.1%, which is inferior to the previous level of 14.6%, and the position of the producer index strengthened by 1.4% against Q1, while the annual figure was 5.6%.Support levels: 0.6870, 0.6682.Resistance levels: 0.7052, 0.7282.EUR/USD: investors continue to study US GDP dataThe EUR/USD trading instrument is trading in correction at 1.0217.The main stimulus for growth in the future may be indicators from France, which reflect the strengthening of gross domestic product for Q2 by 0.5% against the decline in the first quarter by 0.2%. Economists note that the economic situation in the current situation is delaying the onset of a recession. The data showed an increase in spending in the consumer basket of ordinary people by 0.2%, contrary to forecasts of a fall of 0.6%. This day, market participants are waiting for a report on the consumer value of goods and services in France and, according to preliminary estimates, there is a probability of zero dynamics. Earlier, preliminary estimates confirmed the July dynamics of inflation from Germany in a positive way – the monthly expression showed an increase to 0.9% from the previous 0.1%, and the annual decreased to 7.5% from 7.6%.Support levels: 1.0113, 0.9952.Resistance levels: 1.0271, 1.0495.USD/TRY: Turkish regulator revised inflation forecastThe positions of the Turkish lira continue to fall in pair with the US currency, being at around 17.9560. The key reason for the downward correction is the growing cost of living, in particular, the rise in prices of food and services.If you pay attention to the main driver of the strengthening of the instrument – the US dollar, which, contrary to yesterday's statistics on GDP, which lost 0.9% in Q2, continues to hold the lead in the USD/TRY pair. The prospects of the instrument for the medium term do not portend significant changes against the background of the vulnerability of the economic situation in Turkey, which will keep the national currency in low positions, much inferior to the strengthened US dollar. If the "American" begins to lose its position, then the asset is able to show a correction, the prerequisite for which may be negative data on the US employment market, which has already recorded an increase in the level of requests for benefits for the unemployed in recent weeks from 243.00 thousand to 249.25 thousand in the present.Support levels: 17.4300, 16.4900.Resistance levels: 18.2500, 19.0000.GBP/USD: long-term dynamics will remain downwardThe published data, which disappointed economists the day before in the US, caused the sale of the US currency, which allowed the GBP/USD instrument to start an upward trend and reach the 1.2210 mark.In the UK, key macroeconomic statistics were not expected during the current week, except for the release of data on the industrial orders index for July according to the CBI (Confederation of British Industrialists) – the indicator's positions sank to 8.0 points, contrary to forecasts of an increase to 13.0 points, against the recorded indicator in the past at around 18.0 points. The value of indicators does not take a key importance, because investors have focused their attention more on data from the United States.Resistance levels: 1.2180, 1.2385.Support levels: 1.1950, 1.1768.
Jul 29, 2022 Read
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