USD/CAD: Biden's refusal to participate in the elections strengthened the dollar
Amid the active strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing growth, approaching the 1.3730 mark.
The Canadian dollar did not find support after the recent publication of retail sales data, which showed a decline of 0.8% to 66.1 billion Canadian dollars in May. Sales fell in eight of the nine industries, with a particularly noticeable decline in the food and beverage sector. The base indicator decreased from 1.2% to -1.4%, with a noticeable decrease in income in all major categories, including food (-1.9%) and alcoholic beverages (-3.3%). There was also a decrease in the e-commerce segment by 3.6% to 3.9 billion Canadian dollars, which is 5.9% of total sales, compared with 6.1% previously.
The US dollar maintains its position at 104.00 USDX, having successfully recovered from last week's decline. Joe Biden recently announced his refusal to participate in the next presidential election, explaining this decision in the interests of his party and naming Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. This event increases the chances of the election of Republican candidate Donald Trump, which may lead to expected changes in economic policy and support the US dollar.
- Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3850.
- Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3600.
USD/JPY: trading data did not support the yen
During the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY exchange rate strengthened, moving away from the supporting range of 161.70–156.00 and stabilizing at 157.12.
The Japanese currency was weakened by the latest data on foreign trade: exports increased by 5.4% in June, falling short of the expected 6.4% and significantly inferior to last month's growth of 13.5%. This is the seventh consecutive month of export growth, but it turned out to be the weakest since the end of the previous year. Imports increased by 3.2%, which is significantly lower than the projected 9.3%. Nevertheless, the trade balance remained in surplus at 224.0 billion yen.
At the end of last week, the market reacted to the US labor market data. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 243.0 thousand, which exceeded both the projected 229.0 thousand and the previous figure of 223.0 thousand. The total number of recipients of state support also increased from 1.847 million to 1.867 million, which reinforces expectations of rate regulation at the September meeting. According to the estimates of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) instrument FedWatch Tool, the probability of this is 94.0%.
- Support levels: 156.20, 152.90.
- Resistance levels: 158.30, 160.70.
AUD/USD: the rate retreats from the upper limit of the expanding pattern
In the context of the strengthening of the US dollar, the Australian dollar/AUD/USD is experiencing a decline, with the current exchange rate of 0.6664.
The Australian currency is weakening after the latest reports on the state of the labor market: the unemployment index, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, excluding seasonal factors, it remained at 4.0%. Labor force participation increased slightly from 66.8% to 66.9%, then stabilized at 66.8%. The number of full-time employees decreased by 43.3 thousand to 9.944 million, while the number of part-time employees decreased by 6.8 thousand to 4.461 million. This trend supports a negative mood in the labor market, which prevents the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from taking decisive action. As a result, investors do not expect a reduction in interest rates in the near future, which further puts pressure on the Australian dollar.
- Resistance levels: 0.6680, 0.6760.
- Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6580.
Gold market analysis
Gold quotes have again reached the level of 2400.0, but this week the price is influenced by key economic factors.
Changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve System have a significant impact on the price of gold, which may decide to cut rates as early as September, reducing them by 25 basis points. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will switch to a more lenient policy at the September 18 meeting already reaches 91.7%. In addition, the recent decision of US President Joe Biden not to participate in the election campaign also helps to strengthen opinion about a possible reduction in interest rates this year, especially in the context of Donald Trump's possible return to power and his plans to reform the national economy.
- Support levels: 2385.0, 2290.0.
- Resistance levels: 2420.0, 2480.0.