Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CHF, AUD/USD, gold and oil for Tuesday, February 25, 2025

EUR/USD: ECB comments shift market sentimentThe single European currency is showing a steady strengthening in the EUR/USD pair at auction in Asia, offsetting the losses of the previous day, when the instrument updated the local lows recorded on March 5. The pair is currently trying to overcome resistance around 1.0780, and bidders continue to look for new catalysts for further movement amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions. One of the key factors is the harsh protectionism of the United States: the White House administration has confirmed its intention to impose 25% duties on all imports of passenger cars, as well as on the most important components - from engines to transmissions and electronic systems.Additional attention of market participants is focused on the statements of representatives of the European Central Bank. Piero Cipollone, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said that the situation is in favor of a softer monetary policy: lower energy prices, rising real yields, the strengthening of the euro and international trade tensions create reasonable conditions for a return to a rate below 2.00%. In turn, the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, stressed the need for a pragmatic approach, focusing on projected inflation rather than hypothetical neutral rate levels. In March, the ECB lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base rate was set at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The next ECB meeting will be held on April 17 and, judging by the rhetoric of officials, it may again bring decisions in favor of easing.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0654.USD/CAD: local weakening of the bullish trendThe USD/CAD pair is holding slightly above the key support level of 1.4257 and shows an increased likelihood of its breakdown downwards, as the Canadian currency strengthens amid growing concerns about US trade duties.Investors are increasingly considering a compromise scenario between Washington and Ottawa that could lead to an easing or partial lifting of restrictive measures, as well as analyzing Canada's retaliatory actions, including "mirror duties" as a tool to stabilize market sentiment. Additional support for the Canadian dollar is provided by confident macro statistics: in February, the consumer price index added 1.1% month—on-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.6%, and reached 2.6% year-on-year against expectations of 2.2%, which increases the chances of the Bank of Canada maintaining the current interest rate at 2.75% following the meeting on April 16.Resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4257, 1.4150, 1.3950.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair continues to move in a steady upward channel, holding above the psychological mark of $3,000,0 per ounce against a confident fundamental background, contributing to an increase in interest in gold as a defensive asset.Last week it became known that the Chinese authorities launched a pilot project allowing ten leading insurance companies in the country to carry out operations with precious metals through standard contractual schemes. The first deal under the new initiative was concluded on March 25 between China Life Insurance and China Pacific Life Insurance and was a series of applications for spot trading in gold. Despite the limit of 1.0% of the total capital available for participation in such activities, the program may significantly increase interest in instruments related to precious metals, since the total revenues of the insurance sector of China have already exceeded 700 billion dollars. According to analysts at Bank of America Corp., the potential volume of demand from these organizations may reach 300 tons, which corresponds to about 6.5% of the global annual turnover in the gold market.Resistance levels: 3060.0, 3170.0.Support levels: 3000.0, 2860.0.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to rise modestly, remaining within the upward correction and consolidating above the level of $ 73.00 per barrel.Optimism in the market is formed against the background of the latest decisions of the OPEC+ alliance, suggesting a gradual easing of production restrictions in the total volume of 2.2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. Although April was supposed to be the starting point of this process, the parameters of the first stage have already been adjusted due to the systematic excess of existing quotas by a number of countries. The updated production growth schedule clarifies that almost all parties to the agreement, with the exception of Algeria, are required to compensate for past deviations, which reduced the total volume of the April increase to 88.0 thousand barrels per day. Nevertheless, representatives of the cartel do not rule out a return to a tougher policy as early as June, if the recovery in demand from China turns out to be weaker than expected: recall that in 2024, China provided only 34.0% of the global increase in oil consumption (500.0 thousand barrels per day), against 50.0% in previous years. According to current forecasts, additional demand from the Chinese economy may decrease to 300.0 thousand barrels in 2025.Resistance levels: 73.70, 77.10.Support levels: 72.10, 68.80.

USD/JPY: traders' attention is focused on the details of the BoJ meetingThe USD/JPY pair remains in the upward correction phase, trading near the mark of 150.54, against the background of the predicted behavior of the Bank of Japan and disappointing macroeconomic data from the country.Market participants are carefully studying the published minutes of the last meeting of the regulator, which confirmed that the Bank of Japan does not intend to radically change its current monetary policy. The document emphasizes that a potential increase in the key rate will not be regarded as a tightening, but rather an adjustment within the framework of the current monetary stimulus conditions. The report also indicates that in January, the volume of government bond repurchases amounted to 4.5 trillion yen, down from 4.9 trillion a month earlier, maintaining a steady decline rate of 400.0 billion yen. Meanwhile, fresh statistics indicate a deterioration in business activity: the PMI in industry in March fell to 48.3 points from February 49.0, with expectations at 49.2, and the indicator in the services sector immediately dropped to 49.5 points against the previous value of 53.7, leaving the growth zone for the first time in 2025.Resistance levels: 151.30, 153.40.Support levels: 150.00, 147.10.USD/CAD: Ottawa prepares reform for market integrationThe USD/CAD pair is showing sluggish volatility around the 1.4315 mark, as traders wait and are in no hurry to take active action until clearer signals from the macroeconomic front appear.On Monday, the attention of American market participants was focused on preliminary March business activity data: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which turned out to be worse than expected, while the services sector surprised with an increase from 51.0 to 54.3 points, providing strong support to the composite index, which rose to 53.5 points. Today, the focus is on reports on new home sales and housing price dynamics: according to forecasts, the price index may decrease to 0.2% month—on—month and rise to 4.7% year-on-year. Earlier, sales in the retail market in Canada decreased by 0.6% in January after an increase of 2.6%, while the base indicator slowed from 2.9% to 0.2%.Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an ambitious project to form a single economic space within the country in response to the tightening of US tariff policy. The plan provides for the lifting of federal restrictions as part of an internal free trade agreement, which should simplify the movement of goods and ensure greater labor mobility for federally licensed professionals. Carney also announced investments in logistics infrastructure aimed at connecting energy regions with rail and road hubs, stressing that the central government will recognize the evaluation of regional projects as equivalent to the federal one, thereby speeding up the process of implementing major economic initiatives.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4451, 1.4472.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.NZD/USD: New Zealand economy strengthened in the fourth quarterThe New Zealand dollar stabilized against the US currency, remaining close to the 0.5725 mark after a significant decline recorded a day earlier.The main impetus for strengthening the position of the New Zealand currency was the trade statistics for February published the day before: the foreign trade balance showed a surplus for the first time in several months, amounting to 510 million dollars due to an increase in export earnings to 6.74 billion and a reduction in imports to 6.23 billion.In addition to foreign trade, the New Zealand economy was also supported by its recovery from the recent deep recession, which was not caused by pandemic restrictions: in the last quarter of last year, GDP unexpectedly increased 0.7%, exceeding the consensus forecast of analysts, who estimated an increase of only 0.5%. Senior Expert at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon explained that the final figures were close to the most optimistic market expectations. A positive trend was recorded in eleven of the sixteen key sectors of the economy, with real estate and services, social security and healthcare, as well as the retail segment and the hotel business among the growth leaders. At the same time, analysts believe that the prospects for accelerating the recovery are still limited, and this allows the New Zealand financial regulator to maintain its policy of lowering interest rates to boost domestic consumption and improve the business climate.Resistance levels: 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) is showing cautious growth in Asian trading, gradually recovering losses after a two-day correction, during which quotes rolled back from historical peaks, approaching the level of 3015.00. Investors are assessing the prospects for further developments amid reports that the White House's new tariff policy may turn out to be less stringent than expected: restrictions are likely to affect only countries with negative trade balances with the United States, excluding more loyal partners. Nevertheless, tensions remain: the EU has so far been targeted in the supply of aluminum and steel, but a wider range of sanctions is possible, which creates additional nervousness in the markets.Along with this, the weakening of interest in gold was the result of growing optimism in the global economy, supported by rising yields on US Treasury securities, which reduces the attractiveness of protective assets. Yesterday's statistics on business activity in the United States only reinforced this trend: the S&P Global services sector index rose sharply to 54.3 points, significantly exceeding expectations of 51.2 points, while the manufacturing index fell below the key 50 mark, reaching 49.8 points with a forecast of 51.9. Meanwhile, the final composite index showed a steady increase from 51.6 to 53.5 points. Today, market participants will switch their attention to a fresh batch of macroeconomic reports from the United States: at 15:00 (GMT+2), new home sales data will be released, as well as updated values on the housing price index. Analysts predict a slowdown in monthly growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, while in annual terms — from 4.5% to 4.7%. These figures will become key indicators of the sustainability of American consumer demand and may affect the dynamics of gold in the short term.Resistance levels: 3025.00, 3038.21, 3057.40, 3075.00.Support levels: 3000.00, 2980.00, 2956.19, 2942.65.

EUR/USD: US duties will cut eurozone GDP by 0.3% — LagardeThe single European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, holding near the level of 1.0825. The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to recover after falling to the lows of March 10, recorded at the end of last week, but market participants still prefer a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for new fundamental signals that can set the vector of movement of quotations.Meanwhile, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a speech in the European Parliament, said that the 25 percent trade duties imposed by the United States could slow down the eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.3% during the first year of their effect. In addition, potential retaliatory steps by the EU could lead to an additional 0.2% decrease, and the overall effect could be an acceleration of inflation by 0.5 percentage points. Lagarde stressed that the current data on consumer prices are within the framework of forecasts, but the continuing uncertainty amid the changing foreign trade policy of the United States poses a serious risk to the economic recovery in the region. According to her, the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9% by the end of 2024, which is almost twice as high as the 0.4% increase in 2023, but the growth rate slowed in the fourth quarter, and the beginning of 2025 shows no clear signs of acceleration. Of particular concern is the continued decline in industrial production and weak investment activity, despite some improvement in business surveys.Additional attention will be focused on American macroeconomic statistics today. At 15:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish preliminary business activity indices for March: the manufacturing index is expected to decline from 52.7 points to 51.9, while the services index, on the contrary, will show a slight positive trend, rising from 51.0 to 51.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900, 1.0954.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/CHF: sideways movement persistsAfter reaching the lows of December 6 last week, the USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective recovery, holding near the 0.8835 mark, waiting for new fundamental signals to appear. Market activity remains moderate: bidders are turning their attention to upcoming publications of macroeconomic statistics, which can set the vector for further movement.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), the focus will be on preliminary data on business activity indices in the eurozone for March. The indicator in the service sector is expected to rise from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing industry — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. As for the region's key economy, Germany, the corresponding indicators are expected to grow to 51.4 and 47.7 points, respectively. Later, at 15:45 (GMT+2), the United States will publish its own S&P Global indices: in the manufacturing sector, analysts predict a slowdown from 52.7 to 51.9 points, while in the service sector there may be a slight acceleration from 51.0 to 51.2 points.On Wednesday, additional interest will be aroused by figures from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on sentiment in the eurozone: last month, the index fell sharply from 17.7 to 3.4 points, disappointing market participants. The series of important publications will be completed by the report of the National Bank of Switzerland, which will present its quarterly economic review at 14:00 (GMT+2). Investors expect signals regarding the future course of monetary policy against the background of the latest rate cut to 0.25%.Resistance levels: 0.8863, 0.8900, 0.8929, 0.8952.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8780, 0.8755.USD/CAD: Canada to hold snap elections on April 28The USD/CAD pair continues its corrective movement, holding near the 1.4346 mark against the background of the absence of strong fundamental or macroeconomic signals capable of setting a clear vector of movement.A key political event that had an impact on the market was the announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of early parliamentary elections scheduled for April 28. According to him, this step is due to the need to respond promptly to the economic challenges that have arisen after the United States imposed 25 percent duties on a number of industrial goods, including steel and aluminum. In response, the Canadian government has stepped up retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Speaking to the press, Carney stressed that Canada intends to defend national sovereignty and will not allow political pressure to destroy the foundations of independence, but expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, provided that the principles of mutual respect and willingness to discuss trade rules on equal terms are respected.From an economic point of view, the situation remains difficult. According to the latest statistics, retail sales in January decreased from 2.6% to -0.6%, and in February the decline continued, reaching -0.4%. Although the base indicator remained in the positive zone, it decreased significantly from 2.9% to 0.2%, which may indicate a slowdown in domestic demand amid growing trade tensions and political uncertainty.Resistance levels: 1.4380, 1.4540.Support levels: 1.4310, 1.4150.USD/JPY: US currency is trying to recoverThe US dollar is showing steady strengthening in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, continuing the upward correction that began on March 11. The instrument came close to the level of 149.80, trying to overcome it upwards and updating minor local highs recorded on March 19. The dollar is supported by investors' continued interest in the US currency amid expectations of further Fed actions, while the Japanese yen is under pressure due to conflicting macroeconomic data.The last meeting of the Bank of Japan was held unchanged: the rate remained at 0.50%, and the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, pointed to the continuing uncertainty preventing the transition to further rate hikes. At the same time, the regulator's management is still counting on increased inflationary pressure, which is facilitated by the recovery of domestic demand and rising wages. Against this background, the Japanese Federation of Trade Unions Rengo announced that it had reached an agreement with businesses on an average 5.4% increase in wages, a record for the past 34 years. This factor may accelerate consumer inflation, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise monetary policy parameters at its meeting in May. However, if the geopolitical and foreign trade instability increases, the regulator may postpone the tightening until July.At the same time, inflation data published on Friday in Japan showed a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 4.0% to 3.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Weak business activity statistics put further pressure on the yen: the manufacturing sector index from Jibun Bank fell from 49.0 to 48.3 points in March, and the services sector fell below 50.0 points for the first time in a long time, falling from 53.7 to 49.5, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the country.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 150.92, 151.50.Support levels: 149.09, 148.55, 148.00, 147.00.

EUR/USD: Bundestag supports expansion of defense budgetThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during Asian trading, correcting from yesterday's local highs. The instrument is testing the 1.0928 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new fundamental factors to appear that can set the direction of price movement.The key event of today will be the publication of February inflation data in the eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2). The core consumer price index is expected to remain at the same level of 2.6% in annual terms and 0.6% on a monthly basis, while the harmonized index will maintain values of 2.4% and 0.5%, respectively. In the meantime, traders are analyzing data on business sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) published the day before: the German economic expectations index increased from 26.0 points to 51.6 points in March, significantly exceeding forecasts of 48.1 points. However, the index of assessment of the current economic situation decreased from -88.5 points to -87.6 points, which is worse than the expected value of -80.5 points. The same indicator for the eurozone rose from 24.2 points to 39.8 points, which only slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of analysts (39.6 points).Additional support for the euro was provided by the approval by the Bundestag of a bill on a significant increase in the national debt to finance defense and infrastructure spending: 513 deputies voted for it, 207 against it. The document is aimed at stimulating the German economy, which is under serious pressure due to high energy prices and increased competition from the United States and China. ECB Board member Olli Rehn noted that the tough trade policy of the White House has already negatively affected the growth of the European economy, but increasing domestic investment may become a driver of its recovery. At the same time, the EU member states of NATO will have to additionally allocate over 500 billion euros annually to meet Washington's requirements to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.Resistance levels: 1.0954, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800.USD/CHF: economists are confident of reducing the SNB rate to 0.25%After two days of active decline, during which the USD/CHF pair updated its minimum levels since March 10, the instrument demonstrates a moderate correction in morning trading, testing the 0.8770 mark for a downward breakdown. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which may become a key driver for further price movements.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish foreign trade data for February: in the previous month, exports increased to 24.45 billion francs, imports to 18.33 billion francs, and the trade surplus amounted to 6.12 billion francs. A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (NBS) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2), and according to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 analysts predict an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it is likely to remain at least until 2026. This step is due to the fact that inflation in the country reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February, which confirms control over price pressure. However, the weakening of the franc in recent months poses risks of a repeat increase in inflation in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8863, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8669.GBP/USD: traders don't expect surprises from the Fed and the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2986 mark, receiving support against the background of the weakening of the US currency.The pound is showing a neutral movement ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will be held tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+2): most analysts expect the interest rate to remain at 4.50%, despite attempts by representatives of the regulator Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra to achieve a more aggressive reduction of 25 basis points. At 09:00 (GMT+2), market participants will pay attention to the January employment data, however, according to preliminary forecasts, they will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 103.00 in USDX, trying to break down the key level for the first time since October. Today, investors' main attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve meeting, the decision of which will be announced at 20:00 (GMT+2): the probability of maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25–4.50% is estimated by the CME FedWatch Tool at 99.0%. Market confidence in the immutability of monetary policy parameters increased yesterday after the release of data on the real estate market: the volume of new home construction in February increased sharply from 1,350 million to 1,501 million, reaching a maximum over the past 13 months and confirming the recovery of the construction sector.Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2770.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent Crude Oil is moving in an upward trend, staying below the level of 70.00, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the intensification of trade disputes between the United States and its key partners. On Tuesday, the Israeli army again attacked positions of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and the US armed forces attacked targets of the Yemeni Houthis. At the same time, President Donald Trump made a statement in which he blamed Iran for supporting this armed group.At the same time, investors are monitoring data on fuel reserves, which, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), increased from 4,247 million barrels to 4,593 million barrels, which may affect further market dynamics. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): preliminary forecasts suggest an increase in reserves from -1.448 million to 0.800 million barrels. If official statistics confirm an increase in storage volumes, oil may come under pressure amid fears of a slowdown in demand.Resistance levels: 70.90, 76.10.Support levels: 68.70, 65.00.

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, 0.6450.

GBP/USD: lower inflation in the US supports the poundThe pound sterling is strengthening in the GBP/USD pair, correcting against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and trading near the 1.2960 mark.Additional support for the British currency is provided by macroeconomic factors: tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), UK GDP data is expected to be published. Experts predict a decrease in growth rates from 0.4% to 0.1% in monthly terms and a weakening from 1.5% in annual terms, which may strengthen the dovish mood of the Bank of England before the March 20 meeting. In addition, the regulator expanded its support for the banking sector, replacing weekly financing with semi—annual financing and allocating a record 2,127 trillion pounds as part of the REPO operation, the maximum amount since 2020.The US dollar is trying to regain its position, trading around 103.50 on the USDX index. The main focus of investors is yesterday's report on inflation in the United States: the consumer price index in February slowed from 0.4% to 0.2% in monthly terms and from 3.0% to 2.8% in annual terms, while the base indicator decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%. This dynamic reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will keep the rate at 4.25–4.50% at its meeting next week.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2760.USD/CHF: the pair maintains a sideways trendThe US dollar shows mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair during the Asian session, holding near the level of 0.8815: the activity of market participants remains low, despite the data on inflation in the United States published the day before.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will focus on inflation in the US manufacturing sector: according to forecasts, the annual producer price index for February will slow down from 3.5% to 3.3%, and the monthly indicator will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. At the same time, the base index excluding food and energy resources is likely to remain at 3.6% in annual terms and 0.3% on a monthly basis. The markets also expect data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: initial applications for the week ending March 7 may increase from 221.0 thousand to 225.0 thousand, and repeat applications (for the week of February 28) may increase from 1,897 million to 1,900 million. On Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March will be published: experts expect a decrease from 64.7 to 63.4 points.In Switzerland, February data on producer and import price indices will be released at 09:30 (GMT+2): a moderate monthly increase is expected from 0.1% to 0.2%, and an annual fix at -0.3%. Probably, these indicators will not have a significant impact on the future steps of the Swiss National Bank in the field of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.8827, 0.8851, 0.8875, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730.USD/JPY: Dollar decline is gaining momentumThe US dollar is showing a decline in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting positions after two days of growth, which allowed updating local highs from March 6. At the moment, quotes are testing the 147.85 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants expect new macroeconomic triggers to appear.Investors in Japan continue to analyze the revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024, published the day before. According to updated estimates, the indicator increased by only 0.6% in quarterly terms instead of the expected 0.7%, and the annual dynamics was adjusted from 2.8% to 2.2%. The slowdown in economic growth creates additional challenges for the Bank of Japan, which is considering a tougher monetary policy, but faces risks related to the instability of the national economy.Resistance levels: 148.55, 149.19, 150.00, 150.50.Support levels: 148.00, 147.00, 146.00, 145.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move in a downward trend, holding slightly above the level of $ 70.00 per barrel.In the middle of the week, the market showed a slight increase against the background of the publication of reports on fuel reserves in the United States, but the general vector of movement is determined by the statements of OPEC + about plans to gradually increase production. According to February data, the countries participating in the agreement, with the exception of states exempt from quotas, increased production by 313.0 thousand barrels per day, bringing it to 35.5 million barrels per day. This exceeds the originally planned volumes by 67.0 thousand barrels, and the main increase occurred in Iraq (130.0 thousand barrels per day), Nigeria (60.0 thousand) and Gabon (50.0 thousand).Data on oil reserves in the United States turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded an increase in reserves of 4.247 million barrels after a decrease of 1.455 million barrels a week earlier. In turn, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, compared with 1.448 million barrels a week earlier.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.80.Support levels: 68.80, 64.70.

EUR/USD: technical analysis indicates continued growthThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 1.0902 mark against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to the results of the meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, seeing them as a possible step towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but macroeconomic statistics turned out to be ambiguous and could not become a strong driver of price growth.Thus, German imports in January showed a slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%, while exports moved to negative dynamics, falling from 2.5% to -2.5%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 20.7 billion euros to 16.0 billion euros. At the same time, industrial production accelerated from -1.5% to 2.0% in monthly terms and from -2.26% to -1.49% in annual terms over the same period. The head of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, expressed support for the initiatives of the future government aimed at easing budget constraints and creating a special fund in the amount of 500.0 billion euros to finance defense and infrastructure projects. At the same time, he stressed that for Germany's long-term economic growth, it is necessary to focus on increasing the supply of labor, reforming the energy sector, reducing bureaucratic barriers and reducing tax pressure on businesses.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0680.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is holding at 0.6270After rising by 1.44% over the past week, the AUD/USD pair is consolidating at the 0.6270 support, awaiting the February US inflation data, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT+2).Forecasts suggest that the consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, which may increase pressure on the US dollar if the Fed signals a softer monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at the level of March 19 is 97.0%, and its reduction by 25 basis points in May is 40.9%.On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will publish data on building permits for January: an increase of 6.3% on a monthly basis is expected, which may support the Australian currency. If the indicator is confirmed, it will be a signal of economic recovery after a prolonged recession since the end of 2023.Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6270, 0.6147.Silver market analysisAfter a short-term consolidation below the 32.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair resumed its growth, which is due to the unique structure of demand for silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, this metal is in demand both in industry and among investors, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in market sentiment. An additional support factor was the growth in the number of Silver Institute participants: seven new companies joined the organization in 2024, and three more in the first two months of 2025, including Skeena Gold & Silver, Silver Tiger Metals, and TCA S.p.A.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirms the increased interest in silver. In recent reporting periods, the number of manufacturers' long positions increased by 0.453 thousand, while sellers reduced volumes by 8,192 thousand contracts. The balance in the segment of positions secured by real capital remains on the side of the bulls — 47,823 thousand against 13,620 thousand for the bears, which indicates a high level of confidence in the asset.Resistance levels: 33.10, 34.80.Support levels: 32.30, 30.80.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning trading, WTI Crude Oil continues to strengthen, developing the growth momentum that was formed the day before, and is testing the 66.30 level for an upward breakout. However, traders remain cautious, preferring to wait for the publication of US inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2), which may affect the dynamics of quotations.According to preliminary forecasts, the core consumer price index for February will slow down to 3.2% in annual terms (against 3.3% earlier) and 0.3% on a monthly basis (from 0.4%), while the overall index will decrease from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 0.5% to 0.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the dollar's reaction may be restrained, as investors are more focused on the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration. This month, 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on a number of Chinese goods, have already entered into force, and new restrictions on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States are expected in the near future.Additional pressure on the market was exerted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed an increase in oil reserves by 4.247 million barrels for the week of March 7 after a previous decrease of 1.455 million barrels, while experts predicted an increase of only 2.1 million barrels. At 15:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released, which, according to forecasts, will also reflect an increase in reserves by 2.1 million barrels after a previous increase of 3.614 million barrels. Additionally, the agency adjusted the forecast of oil production in 2025, increasing it by 20 thousand. barrels per day — up to 13.61 million barrels.Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.50, 68.25, 69.00.Support levels: 66.00, 64.96, 64.00, 63.00.

EUR/USD: ECB cut the rate by a quarter of a percentThe EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend at 1.0807, showing the most significant weekly growth since November 2022.The main driver of the strengthening of the European currency was the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease monetary policy. The deposit rate was lowered to 2.50%, and the key interest rate dropped from 2.90% to 2.65%, which was a reaction to the easing of inflationary pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that these measures are aimed at stimulating economic growth, but did not rule out that in April the regulator may take a pause in changing rates due to the uncertainty of the foreign trade policy of the administration of US President Donald Trump.Additional support for the single currency is provided by the prospects of increased government spending on defense and infrastructure projects, which, according to experts, can stimulate economic growth in the eurozone. Nevertheless, such measures may increase inflationary pressures. The European Commission has already presented a program providing loans for 150 billion euros to finance defense initiatives in EU countries.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0970.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0600.GBP/USD: traders' attention is focused on the labor market in the United StatesThe pound sterling shows mixed dynamics in the GBP/USD pair during morning trading, remaining near the local highs of November 11 and testing the 1.2880 level for a downward breakdown. Investors are being cautious in anticipation of the emergence of new factors that could set the direction for the movement of quotations.The key event of the day will be the publication of the February report on the US labor market at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts expect an increase in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 143.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, while the average hourly wage is likely to maintain annual growth at 4.1%, but in monthly terms may slow down from 0.5% to 0.3%. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.0%. On Wednesday, ADP has already published data on employment in the private sector, which disappointed the markets with a sharp drop from 186.0 thousand to 77.0 thousand. The statistics on applications for unemployment benefits received yesterday turned out to be contradictory: initial applications decreased to 221.0 thousand with a forecast of 235.0 thousand, and repeat applications increased to 1.897 million against expectations of 1.880 million.Hugh Pill, an economist at the Bank of England, expressed doubt about the possibility of a significant reduction in interest rates in the future, given persistent inflation. According to him, monetary policy should remain restrained in the face of uncertainty caused by the tariff policy of US President Donald Trump, fluctuations in energy prices and plans to index taxes in the new UK budget. The Bank of England survey results showed that business inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased from 3.0% to 3.1%, and companies plan to raise prices for goods and services by 4.0%, higher than previous forecasts of 3.9%.Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2847, 1.2800, 1.2747, 1.2690.USD/CAD: Canada appealed to the WTO because of Washington's dutiesDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair is showing recovery after three days of decline, during which quotes reached their lowest values since February 24. Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4300 level, while market participants expect new factors to appear that can set the direction of movement.The Canadian authorities have contacted the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a request for consultations on the issue of trade duties imposed by the United States: 25.0% on non—energy goods and 10.0% on energy. US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held telephone talks after Ottawa announced retaliatory tariffs on American goods worth 155.0 billion Canadian dollars (107.4 billion US dollars). Earlier, Trudeau said that Washington's actions are aimed at undermining the country's economy and could lead to its "absorption," adding that Canada "will never become the 51st state." According to the latest data, some goods, including automotive products, will be subject to new duties only in a month, which will allow Ottawa to temporarily refrain from introducing the second part of retaliatory measures.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.USDX: US dollar index shows the most powerful bearish trend in monthsThe US dollar index (USDX) shows a slight decline in morning trading, continuing the most powerful "bearish" trend of recent months, formed since the beginning of the week. Quotes are again testing the 104.00 level for a downward breakdown, while the index managed to update the lows from November 5 the day before. The decline in the USDX exchange rate is due to several factors. First of all, the growth of the European currency was spurred by the announcement of significant investments in German defense and infrastructure. The German authorities have also eased the limit on government borrowing, which has led to higher yields on long-term bonds.Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by a change in the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump. Some goods from Canada and Mexico were temporarily exempt from new duties of 25%, which gave US trading partners a reason to slow down with retaliatory measures. Canada will refrain from imposing the second part of the "mirror sanctions" until April, and Mexico has promised to provide its response by the end of the week. In addition, market participants continue to reassess expectations about the policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Against the background of mixed macroeconomic data and pressure from the Trump administration, it is predicted that the regulator will limit itself to two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of 2025.Resistance levels: 104.50, 105.00, 105.30, 105.58.Support levels: 104.00, 103.60, 103.30, 103.00.