USD/CHF: quarterly employment in Switzerland in the spotlight
The USD/CHF pair is in the correction phase, trading around 0.8969, with the potential for further decline amid strong macroeconomic data from Switzerland.
A stable labor market remains one of the key factors supporting the franc. In the fourth quarter, employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by 0.9%, equivalent to 48.3 thousand new jobs. At the same time, the number of open vacancies decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, which indicates a high level of job occupancy. The share of companies planning to expand their staff was 11.7%, while only 4.7% of employers intend to reduce staff. This stability in the labor market provides the Swiss National Bank with additional arguments in favor of further lowering the interest rate, which is likely to reach 0.00% by the end of the year.
- Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9120.
- Support levels: 0.8940, 0.8810.
AUD/USD: the exchange rate moved to correction before the inflation report
The Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting the previous two-day decline. After a pullback from local highs on December 12, the exchange rate is testing the 0.6350 level, trying to gain a foothold higher, while traders expect new factors that can affect the dynamics. Meanwhile, the sale of shares of leading Australian banks has stopped after eight sessions of decline caused by the first decrease in interest rates since November 2020 and an increase in overdue debt. In particular, the capitalization of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia has decreased by about 25 billion Australian dollars during this time. The key event for the market will be the publication of January inflation data in Australia, which is scheduled for tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the annual consumer price index may rise from 2.5% to 2.6%, which may support the national currency. Investors' attention will also be focused on statistics on completed construction: the indicator for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 1.0%.
The final report on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be released on the US market on Thursday at 15:30 (GMT+2), and experts do not predict a revision of the value from 2.3%. On the same day, data on applications for unemployment benefits and January orders for durable goods are expected to be published, which may grow by 2.5% after a December decline of -2.2%. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will assess the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Analysts expect a slowdown in the base indicator from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year, while monthly growth may accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3%. The overall index is also expected to reach 2.5%, adding 0.3% over the month.
- Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6408, 0.6450, 0.6478.
- Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.
Gold market analysis
During the Asian trading session, gold is showing a decline, rolling back from historical highs recorded the day before and testing support at 2935.75. Pressure on gold is exerted by a decrease in geopolitical tensions associated with the likely progress of peace talks on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The weakening demand for protective assets contributes to the reorientation of investors to riskier instruments, which further limits the metal's growth potential.
Market participants' attention is also focused on the latest economic data from the United States. According to the S&P Global report, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector rose from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding the projected 51.5 points, while the services sector saw a sharp decline from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points. Additional pressure on the dollar was exerted by a decrease in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in January from 67.8 to 64.7 points, despite neutral forecasts. Also, data on the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index was released yesterday, which fell from 0.18 to -0.03 points in January, reflecting a weakening in economic activity. The December housing price index from S&P/Case-Shiller will be published today at 16:00 (GMT+2), and at 17:00 (GMT+2) and 17:30 (GMT+2), markets expect the publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. which can set the further direction of the dollar's movement and, accordingly, affect the dynamics of gold.
- Resistance levels: 2956.19, 2980.00, 3000.00, 3025.00.
- Support levels: 2920.00, 2900.00, 2875.00, 2858.06.
Crude Oil market analysis
The price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure, correcting in a downward movement and trading just below the 75.00 mark. The market is influenced by two factors at once: the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, which implies possible changes in import duties, as well as the prospects for an increase in oil supplies from Iraq. These circumstances increase uncertainty and create negative expectations among investors.
Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani announced that the transportation of raw materials from Kurdistan to Turkey will resume next week. The cost of the supplied oil will be $ 16.0 per barrel, and the state-owned SOMO company will handle its sale. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of supplies in the first months will range from 300.0 to 500.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market.
Additional attention of traders is focused on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on fuel reserves, which will be released today at 23:30 (GMT+2). Experts predict that after the previous increase of 3.339 million barrels, the figure will change slightly. Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+2), data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published, and if they confirm the positive dynamics of last week, when stocks increased by 4,633 million barrels, this may strengthen the current trend in the market.
- Resistance levels: 75.30, 78.00.
- Support levels: 73.70, 70.70.