Analytical Forex forecast on August 29, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD & Cryptocurrencies

AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Analytical Forex forecast on August 29, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD & Cryptocurrencies

GBP/USD: pound has updated the 2020 minimum

The British currency is moving in a "bearish" trend, developing a downward trend since last Friday. The GBP/USD instrument has updated the minimum peak of the last 40 years, being at 1.1650 with the prospect of further decline.

The pound continues to be pressured by record inflation in the United Kingdom and the entire eurozone against the background of a record strengthening in the cost of energy. On the eve of the cold snap and preparation for the heating season, officials have launched an information program to prepare their citizens for the rise in the cost of heat and electricity. According to Ofgem (UK Gas and Electricity Markets Authority), voters will see an 80% increase in the cost of electricity during October, an increase of 1.86 thousand. dollars due to the aggravation of the geopolitical crisis in eastern Europe, which is actively pushing the prices of "blue fuel" to increase. Analysts note that these figures are not final, because by April next year, the strengthening of prices may reach 7.7 thousand dollars in annual terms.

  • Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.1758, 1.1800, 1.1854.
  • Support levels: 1.1647, 1.1600, 1.1531, 1.1470.

EUR/USD: the US regulator supported the tightening of monetary policy

The EUR/USD trading instrument is trading within the downward dynamics, testing the 0.9916 mark, having the opportunity to set a new anti-record today, breaking through the next support threshold of 0.9880.

The growth rate of the European economy has slowed down noticeably, because representatives of Gazprom confirmed the information that the pumping of natural gas in the period from the end of the month to September 2 will be stopped as part of preventive procedures for the turbine on the Nord Stream main gas pipeline. Analysts question the announced terms of repair work and allow the complete blocking of the work of the GTS, which will act as a catalyst for the growth of prices of "blue fuel" to new record levels. So, according to a source from trading platforms on Friday, 1 thousand. cubic meters on ICE (London Intercontinental Exchange) reached $ 3507.0, an absolute record of the last 26 years.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0322.
  • Support levels: 0.9880, 0.9660.

AUD/USD: "bears" maintain dominance in the pair

The AUD/USD instrument is trading within the unstable dynamics, showing a decline at the beginning of the session to the level of 0.6842, despite the positive macroeconomic background.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales increased by 1.3% on a monthly basis against 0.2% last month, with market expectations of 0.3%, while the annual figure was recorded at 16.5%. The leader of the strengthening was department stores, which added 3.8%, which in numerical terms is 67.7 million dollars, while according to experts, the level of clothing sales increased by 3.3%.food products by 1.2%, cafeteria and restaurant business by 1.8%. The only segment that displayed a negative trend went to household goods, which showed a decrease of 1.1% or 68.8 million. dollars in monetary terms. On August 30, the release of data on approved applications for construction work was announced, and experts expect that based on the global trend, the level will drop by another 2.0%.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6927, 0.7050.
  • Support levels: 0.6806, 0.6681.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

The previous week ended with BTC's attempts to win back losses, but the negative dynamics only intensified, pushing the asset from the level of 21875.00 to 19500.00.

"Digital gold" continued to lose its position, as did the vast majority of altcoins on the statement of the chairman of the US regulator. So, during the symposium in Jackson Hole, rumors were confirmed that the regulator would continue to adjust the key indicator, even with the threat of considerable pressure on the growth rate of the economy. At the same time, the head of the financial department noticed that it was impossible to pause the cyclical increase or reduce its pace, even though the consumer price index could have already passed its peak. Only after the indicator approaches the limits of the set level necessary for the stability of the downward dynamics of inflation, it will be fixed on it, and will not continue to fall. Apparently, the "hawks" continue to hold the advantage in the US Federal Reserve, which did not justify the forecasts of market participants who expected a correction in the level of increase in monetary parameters in the United States, after inflation moved away from the peak of 9.1% to the current 8.5% in July. In the present, it is known that the regulator will continue the rate of increase in indicators, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen relative to all its competitors in the world market.

  • Resistance levels: 20312.50, 21093.75, 21875.00.
  • Support levels: 19531.25, 18750.00, 17800.00.
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Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDTRY and Silver for Wednesday, March 29
EUR/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDTRY and Silver for Wednesday, March 29 EURUSD: upward trend is expected in the pairPair EURUSD is relatively stable at 1.0835 and the local maximum of March 23. Euro is waiting for the next stimulus to strengthen the current "bullish" momentum.Experts hastened to reconsider their estimates of the crisis development in the bank sector of the USA and Europe, noting the successful and timely actions of the Fed and the Treasury Department, since the situation has stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the information was confirmed that the US bank First Citizens BancShares Inc. would acquire the controlling interest on the credit portfolio of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that stopped its activity the day before, and that would lead to the reduction of the load on the insurance sector. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will not avoid a huge loss of at least 20.0 billion dollars. At the same time, the chairman of the Central Bank of Spain and the ECB official Pablo Hernandez de Kos fears that the global turmoil in the banking sector has caused uncertainty in the market, against which the regular increase in the price of funding for credit institutions in Spain and the growing reserve stock is likely to follow.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0900, 1.0957, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0758, 1.0700, 1.0640.NZDUSD: Short term sideways trendThe trading instrument NZDUSD is developing a moderate strengthening, reaching the area of 0.6260, developing "bullish" sentiment in the pair, formed since the beginning of the week due to lower panic moods in the market on the prospects of a potential crisis in the banking sector in Europe and the United States.Investors are waiting for the New Zealand macroeconomic statistics release on Thursday, March 30. Thus, traders' interest is aroused by the previously announced dynamics of approved construction applications in February: expectations are for a moderate strengthening of the value by 0.5%, having earlier decreased by 1.5% in January. RBNZ March business optimism data is expected, but experts forecast a sharp fall to -47.5 points from -43.3 points. Business activity, according to the National Bank of New Zealand, will decrease to -12.5% from -9.2%.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400 and 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100.USDTRY: Turkey's manufacturing sector continues to strengthenThe USDTRY currency pair continues to hold within the narrow 18.7000-19.3000 upward corridor ahead of the planned presidential election scheduled for May 14.Thanks to the personal efforts of the Turkish president the national currency and monetary parameters remained stable, which rules out volatility of the lira in the short term. Earlier in the publication were statistics on March manufacturing sector confidence, reflecting an increase to 105.2 points from 102.4 points, marking the third month in a row of upward correction from 97.5 points since December 2022. Tomorrow, March 30, the Turkish Statistical Institute (Türkstat) will present economic confidence in the index, which is predicted to rise to 100.0 points from February's 99.10 points.Resistance levels: 19.1400, 19.3000.Support levels: 19.0660, 18.9000.Silver analysisThe value of the precious metal is quoted above the 23.00 threshold, preparing to test the 24.50 target due to the fluctuations in the U.S. dollar.Precious metals remain in high demand among investors amid the development of the crisis in the financial sector, which came in the U.S. after the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and then hit European financial institutions. Currently in a difficult situation is the German bank Deutsche Bank AG, whose shares plummeted by 14% at once, contrary to the announced long-term redemption of part of the subordinated securities of the second degree. Trading participants hastily save their capitals, transferring them into "safe" instruments, which by classics are considered as metallic assets, to minimize risks, while leading central banks continue to assure about the stable situation of the banking sector. Gold has risen by 7.3% since spring, and silver by 10.00%. If the upward trend among the metal asset group continues, silver could renew its year-to-date high at 24.50.Resistance levels: 23.00, 24.50, 26.00.Support levels: 21.50, 20.00, 18.00.
Mar 29, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD and USDJPY for Tuesday, March 28
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex analytical forecast for USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD and USDJPY for Tuesday, March 28 USDCHF: Credit Suisse Group management can be held responsibleUSDCHF trading pair is moving in moderate decline, being under the weak momentum of the "bears" that came earlier. The asset is held around 0.9140 continuing a decline, having updated the local minimum of March 23.The "bears" are gaining advantage in the first half of the week amid the improvement of investors' mood, who appreciated the comments of the US bank First Citizens BancShares Inc, which announced about the redemption of considerable part of credit portfolio of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) liquidated the day before, which can significantly ease the insurance burden in the country, because the Treasury Department had assured the depositors of SVB about the open access to their deposits the day before. The positive news background was also reflected in the European region in the banking sector. So, by the end of March 27, Monday, a large German conglomerate Deutsche Bank became the leader in a "bullish" trend restoring positions lost since the end of the previous week.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9200, 0.9258, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9070, 0.9036, 0.9000.USDCAD: Canada has assessed the recession threatIn morning trading USDCAD is testing the local lows of March 7, updated on March 23, being in the area of 1.3630, continuing to decline.Meanwhile, the former head of the Canadian regulator Stephen Poloz said there are growing risks of a major recession in the national economy. The official was positive about the steps of the Financial Department in fighting the record dynamic of inflation that has already updated a 40-year high of 8.1% as the February statistics showed a decline in consumer prices by 5.2%, but regular tightening of monetary parameters, according to his comments, will not remain without consequences primarily for the real estate market and the investment climate. The official also saw positive dynamics in the employment situation, where an increase in workers due to the immigration flow of adult citizens due to the launch of a child care support program will be recorded, as well as increased funding for the healthcare system in the country with an additional 196.0 billion dollars in the next 10 years, which will be divided in the priority areas - family medicine, surgery equipment, mental health and improved data collection system.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3500, 1.3440.AUDUSD: upward trend developing in the pairThe AUDUSD is testing the 0.6690 level in an attempt to develop upward momentum amid positive macro data in February.Australia's retail sales gained 0.2%, having previously strengthened by 1.8%, thanks to rising spending by industries with a link to food group goods. For example, the value of restorations and cafes rose 0.5% and food retail sales rose 0.2%. Department store manufactured goods adjusted 1.0%, clothing and footwear gained 0.6%, and home goods showed zero movement.The American currency is gradually losing ground near 102.200 USD Index, as there are no announcements of macroeconomic statistics at the beginning of the week, only the Conference Board consumer confidence figure was announced for the evening, which attracts enough attention among investors. Analysts expect the reading to fall to 101.0 from 102.9 last week, which would send a negative signal for the greenback.Resistance levels are at 0.6750 and 0.6890.Support levels: 0.6630 and 0.6500.USDJPY: Traders activity has strengthened the asset around 130.90The Japanese currency continues to move in a downtrend, being at 130.90 on the background of statements made by the management of the Central Bank of Japan.The official again noted the continuation of the "dovish" vector in monetary parameters and keeping the key value in the negative zone of -0.10%, emphasizing that conditions for tightening of monetary parameters have not yet come due to the revision of the necessary time for inflation return to the level of 2.00% to increase it to the last forecast. A week earlier in the release, macroeconomic statistics showed consumer inflation correcting to -1.0% year-over-year from 3.3% and corporate services strengthened to 1.8% from 1.6% on a preliminary forecast of 1.5% due to renewed tourist arrivals and rising labor costs.Resistance levels: 134.70, 138.70.Support levels: 130.90, 126.90.
Mar 28, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUDUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD & EURUSD for today, March 27
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for AUDUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD & EURUSD for today, March 27 AUDUSD: The asset is testing the 0.6650 markThe AUDUSD currency pair is trading slightly higher, testing the 0.6654 area. We remind you that at the end of the previous week, the asset was trading under the strong influence of "bears", updating local lows for March 16, which was preceded by the publication of macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector, which strengthened the corrective sentiment for the US currency.Meanwhile, business activity in Australia also failed to demonstrate a strong position. Thus, the value of the services sector from the Commonwealth Bank in March adjusted to 48.2 points from 50.7 points, while analysts estimated a correction to 49.9 points, the manufacturing industry showed a decrease to 48.7 points from 50.5 points, contrary to the forecast of a slowdown to 50.3 points, and business activity on the composite index to 48.1 points from 50.6 points. Tomorrow, March 28, market participants intend to study the February retail sales statistics, providing for a likely drawdown of dynamics to 0.4% from 1.9%.Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6624, 0.6600, 0.6563, 0.6500.USDJPY: Japanese inflation signals a slowdownThe USDJPY currency pair shows a mixed trend in the morning session, testing the mark of 130.50. The trading instrument recorded positions in a moderate decline, updating the local minimum for February 3. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained support against the background of the release of positive statistics of the March business activity index.In particular, the Japanese consumer price index for February showed a significant decrease in dynamics to 3.3% from 4.3% in the past, with estimates of 4.1%. Core inflation, which does not take into account the cost of food group goods and energy, increased positions to 3.5% from 3.2%, contrary to experts' forecast of 3.4%. Moreover, business activity in the manufacturing sector from Jibun Bank in March rose to 48.6 points from 47.7 points, exceeding market expectations in the area of 47.5 points. However, the correction of values in a positive way still does not allow consumer prices to reach the target mark of the Central Bank of Japan at 2.00%. The leadership in the dynamics of price growth is held by the food sector and essential goods, but market participants remain hopeful that the regulator will reconsider the current rhetoric of "pigeons" and will begin to correct percentage indicators after the change of leadership. Preliminary business activity statistics for March turned out to be contradictory, as the industry shows growth to 48.6 points from 46.7 points, however, continuing to show stagnation, and the service sector strengthened to 54.2 points from 54.0 points.Resistance levels: 131.00, 132.00, 133.00, 134.00.Support levels: 130.00, 129.62, 128.62, 128.00.GBPUSD: Pound intends to restore Friday's lossesThe GBPUSD trading instrument is developing a weak upward trend, in an attempt to correct after the decline the day before.Recall that at the end of the previous week, the British currency was losing ground against the background of the release of a block of macroeconomic data from the UK on the March business activity index. Thus, the S&P Global services sector on the index showed a correction to 52.8 points, contrary to analysts' estimates of 53.0 points, the manufacturing sector decreased in the indicator to 48.0 points from 49.3 points, contrary to the forecast of 49.8 points, the composite index – to 52.2 points from 53.1 points, while experts expect 52.8 points. High consumer prices and Bank of England interest rates continue to put pressure on the national economy. Currently, the United Kingdom remains the only member of the G7, where economic indicators have not been able to restore their pre-crisis value and continue to record double-digit inflation. Meanwhile, retail sales for February showed positive dynamics, strengthening by 1.2% for the month with an expectation of 0.2%, and for the year losses amounted to 3.5%, which exceeded forecasts in the area of -4.7%.Resistance levels: 1.2236, 1.2283, 1.2350, 1.2400.Support levels: 1.2176, 1.2140, 1.2100, 1.2054.EURUSD: EU manufacturing sector declinesAgainst the background of an active drawdown at the end of the previous week, the EURUSD trading instrument is testing the 1.0766 mark.Weak macroeconomic indicators were a negative factor for the asset. Thus, the business activity of the German manufacturing sector in March adjusted from 46.3 points to 44.4 points, which did not justify the market's assessment of growth to 47.0 points, reducing the aggregate indicator of all members of the European Alliance from 48.6 points to 47.1 points, contrary to expectations of growth to 49.0 points. At the beginning of the week, investors intend to evaluate the February statistics on consumer loans in the European region, for which preliminary forecasts provide for a decrease to 3.4% from the previous 3.6% in annual terms. In addition, the market is interested in the previously announced output on business optimism and economic expectations in Germany from the IFO for March, the value of which may show a correction to 90.9 points from 91.1 points.Resistance levels: 1.0860, 1.1030.Support levels: 1.0710, 1.0520.
Mar 27, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecasts for NZDUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD for Friday, March 24
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecasts for NZDUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD for Friday, March 24 NZDUSD: the "New Zealander" is going to win back its lossesNZDUSD demonstrates a moderate decline, resuming the dynamics of the "bears", completing a brief rise yesterday, where the asset updated the local maximum of February 16, but the "bulls" quickly exhausted its potential.The negative factor for the pair reduction was the macroeconomic statistics release from the USA on the unemployment benefits claims. Thus, over the last seven days on March 17 the initial claims fell to 191,0 thousand from the previous 192,0 thousand, with analysts' estimates of growth to 201,0 thousand, and the number of secondary claims on March 10 strengthened to 1.694 million from 1.68 million, just under the expected 1.701 million. Investors were disappointed with the housing market dynamics, which reflected the slowdown in new home purchases to 1.1% from 1.8%, with the market estimate of 1.6%.Meanwhile, at the end of the week investors expect to see macroeconomic data in the U.S. on demand for durable goods, as well as business activity in March from S&P Global. Estimates suggest that capital goods orders outside the aerospace and defense sector will remain flat in February, having previously increased 0.8% in January.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100 and 0.6049.USDCAD: pair is affected by contradictory factorsDuring the morning session USDCAD is moderately strengthening, recovering positions after a slight decline earlier, resuming a test of 1.3720.The US dollar continues to trade under moderate pressure amid the released results of the Fed meeting on monetary parameters, in which the regulator decided to increase the interest rate by 0.25%, despite the negative sentiment of market participants regarding the situation in the banking sector. The accompanying letter from the officials noted the continuation of the fight against inflation, which continues to be well above the 2.00% target. In addition, participants confirmed the need to adjust the value in the short term, and based on the summary of economic forecasts, the median estimate of the percentage in 2023 will remain at 5.1%, and in 2024 adjusted to 4.3% from 4.1%. Meanwhile, investors agree that the U.S. regulator is in the final stages of a monetary policy adjustment cycle, which will gradually ease the pressure on the dollar, prioritizing real economic conditions and risks in the financial sector, which has already managed to show a negative reaction to interest rate appreciation.Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3900.Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3535.AUDUSD: bears will be able to hold on to the pair's advantageDuring the week AUDUSD tested the support level of 0.6660 due to the published protocols of RBA meeting on March 21.The trading instrument received a positive signal on the decisions of the US Federal Reserve to increase the interest rate by 0.25% instead of 0.50%, as experts predicted the day before, and strengthened "dovish" vector in connection with the crisis situation in the banking sector, which developed amid the liquidation of conglomerates Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. Negative sentiment shifted to the European Alliance, where a week earlier one of the two long-standing banking groups in Switzerland, Credit Suisse Group AG, issued a statement that it is impossible to fulfill its obligations to depositors in the future. The uncertainty in the financial sector is encouraging investors to divert capital to "safe" assets, which are traditional tools for safeguarding funds in times of crisis in the markets.Resistance levels: 0.6870, 0.7000 and 0.7130.Support levels: 0.6660, 0.6570 and 0.6480.USDJPY: Japanese inflation may lose potentialNegative dynamics in the US dollar gives the USDJPY a chance to correct at 130.06.The yen is set to extend the bullish potential, which was intercepted on Tuesday on the release of the Central Bank of Japan's Opinion Briefing, in which the dominant majority argues for the coming positive economic data. The positive trend is currently supported by the statistics on the consumer price index, which is fully in line with the expectations of the financial authorities. Thus, the nationwide inflation rate for February was 3.3%, lower than January's 4.3%, and the core value, which does not include food group goods and fuel, declined from 4.2% to 3.1%. Business activity in the manufacturing sector in the index strengthened to 48.6 points from the previous 47.7 points, while the services sector increased to 54.2 points from 54.0 points.Resistance levels: 131.60, 135.00.Support levels: 129.00, 125.50.
Mar 24, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and silver for Thursday, March 23
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and silver for Thursday, March 23 EURUSD: the pair is correcting in the ascending range of 1.0570-1.1200The lack of announcements on the financial calendar allows the pair EUR/USD to quote in a corrective trend around 1.0894.The market participants focused their attention around the comments of the European Central Bank management, which said that the most part of the monetary parameters correction is already passed, since the agency has already increased the interest rate by 350.0 percentage points since the summer of 2022. Christine Lagarde also said that high inflation and contradictory forecasts for its further dynamics will not affect "hawkish" mood among officials of the authority, despite declining economic growth and the likelihood of banking crisis in the region. Head of the ECB expressed confidence that the EU has sufficient economic strength, therefore over time will be able to reduce the consumer price index to the target of 2.0% and there is no reason for public panic. Recall that the day before the ECB had raised the interest rate by 0.50% and refrained from predicting any further action on monetary parameters.Resistance levels: 1.0940 and 1.1031.Support levels: 1.0790, 1.0570.USDJPY: The US dollar has resumed its declineThe trading instrument USDJPY is showing an active decline, reinforcing the dominance of the "bears", who had intercepted the initiative earlier. The asset trades at 130.50 in a decline in price, having updated the local minimum for February 10.The American currency continues to be under the impact of the negative factors against the background of the USA Federal Reserve System decisions to increase the interest rate by 0,25%, to the target value of 5.00%. Some experts expected to see more decisive results from the hawks and harsh comments from the head of the agency, but the official shared comments avoiding specific forecasts. Against this background, the assurances of officials at the Treasury Department and the U.S. Federal Reserve about full control of the stability of the banking sector have extremely low credibility with investors. The flow of moderate account closing and the outflow of liquidity from deposits at credit institutions across the regions continues because of depositors' fears of losing their funds.Resistance levels: 131.00, 132.00, 133.00, 134.00.Support levels: 130.00, 129.39, 128.62, 128.00.AUDUSD: The "Aussie" is testing the March highs on an upside breakoutThe AUDUSD trading instrument is showing active strengthening and is vigorously testing the 0.6740 mark, intending to consolidate positions at the local March 6 high reached earlier in reaction to the Fed's monetary parameters decision.According to preliminary forecasts, the agency raised the interest rate by 0.25% bringing the target to 5.00% and the highest since 2007. At the same time, investors have not received any forecasts from the head of the Fed on the next steps in 2023, and expert estimates of the value at the end of this year remain at the same level of 5.10%. The accompanying explanation of the officials indicates that the regulator is ready to make an additional correction of the key value in case of a separate need. The U.S. dollar came under immediate pressure on the Fed's final statements, but by the end of afternoon trading the instrument managed to win back its losses.Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853 and 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6563.Silver analyticsHolders of the U.S. currency suffered losses amid the rhetoric of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as the major competitors of the "American" strengthened considerably, including silver, reaching the 23.00 mark.The Fed forecasted the Fed to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.00%, marking a new high from 2007. Investors saw no concrete plans in Jerome Powell's statements for further correction steps through the end of this year, and the median expectation for the value through 2023 is held at 5.10% and through 2024 at 4.30%, strengthening from 4.10% for December. The termination of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, as well as the cumulative problems in the banking sector by region, was the impetus for the U.S. Federal Reserve to refuse to raise the interest rate by 0.50% in the short term. Meanwhile, investors in the precious metals market decided to make the most of it and increased demand for safe-haven assets, which increased the value, including that of silver.Resistance levels: 23.00, 24.50, 26.00.Support levels: 21.50, 20.00, 18.00.
Mar 23, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and Gold for today, March 22
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and Gold for today, March 22 EURUSD: investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decisionsA slight correction of the US dollar allowed EURUSD to test the level of 1.0769.There is no stimulus for fundamental changes in the dynamics of the euro, which was confirmed by the latest macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the current economic environment in Germany according to the ZEW index for March was -46.5 points, which is lower than the previous 45.1 points. The value of the economic sentiment declined from 28.1 points to 13.0 points. Such figures were an "anchor" for similar indicators of all countries in the euro area, which reached 10.0 points from 29.7 points. Analysts call the crisis in the banking sector the main reason for the correction.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0680, 1.0520.GBPUSD: correctional impulse developmentGBPUSD is showing a mixed trend being around 1.2230 being under the pressure of the "bullish" impulse which came earlier, when the asset rebounded from the local high of February 2.Investors are waiting for the publication of the statistics on consumer prices for February in the UK. Market expectations envisage decline of the value dynamics to 9.8% from 10.1% in the annual index, and the monthly index may show the growth of 0.6%, having earlier decreased by the similar indicator for January, at that the position of the core inflation indicator may remain at the level of 5.8%. In addition, economists want to assess retail price data; February's forecast is that the value may show an increase for the month to 0.6% from 0.0%, and for the year a slight correction to 13.2% from 13.4%.The kingdom's regulator was positive about Swiss authorities' support for the merger of two large-scale credit reproducers, Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS Group AG, the former of which faced the threat of closure amid insufficient liquidity due to massive outflows of funds from its accounts. According to comments from officials in the government, Credit Suisse Group AG's U.K. branch employs about 5,000 full-time workers, and the institution itself holds the largest number of employees in the investment sector in the City of London.Resistance levels: 1.2236, 1.2283, 1.2350, 1.2400.Support levels: 1.2176, 1.2140, 1.2100, 1.2054.USDCHF: Saudi National Bank is reviewing its investment in Credit Suisse GroupThe USDCHF trade instrument showed corrective moods in the morning session, completing the negative dynamics of the previous day due to weak activity on the market, where investors are waiting for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary issues.A summit of Swiss National Bank officials on interest rates is due tomorrow, March 23. The preliminary forecast of the analysts is unambiguous - the indicator will remain at the same level of 1.0%, taking into account a rather low value of the national inflation. Experts discuss the merger of banking conglomerates UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, which is estimated at 3.0 billion francs. The takeover is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year, as the process will bypass protocol approval from the institutions' shareholders, but the government has committed 9.0 billion francs to cover possible costs. Meanwhile, the largest investor for Credit Suisse Group AG, Saudi National Bank has lost 80.0% of its value since buying a 9.9% block of securities worth 1.4 billion francs last fall.Resistance levels are 0.9258, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9070.Gold analyticsThe precious metal is correcting at 1940.00 amid significant declines of the last two sessions in a row, which allowed the asset to retreat from the record high of April 2022 and the fundamental resistance threshold of 2000.00.Gold positions were pressured by rising yields on U.S. Treasury securities, which was only intensified by massive profit taking on long contracts ahead of the Fed officials' meeting on monetary policy. Preliminary estimates of analysts foresee the strengthening of the interest rate by no more than 0.25%, not ruling out that the agency may announce a temporary pause at all, refusing to tighten monetary parameters in the short term. The latter move may be taken wishing to deprive the growing crisis in the financial sector of further momentum, but investors will not accept such a decision. Still about 82% of economists agree that the regulator will increase the price threshold of borrowing by 0.25% and refrain from forecasting a further correction at the May meeting.Resistance levels: 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00, 2015.30.Support levels: 1930.00, 1914.44, 1900.00, 1878.84.
Mar 22, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and oil for today, March 21
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and oil for today, March 21 EURUSD: Markets await outcome of U.S. Federal Reserve meetingEURUSD is showing mixed trading, testing the level of 1.0710 and the local maximum of March 15, which was updated earlier.Meanwhile, ECB head Christine Lagarde said in her speech before the EP Monetary Affairs Committee that the regional economy is rather vulnerable. According to the official, the dynamics of inflation shows sufficient potential to stay high for a long time, and the key indicator is one of the key mechanisms for the stability of the situation. According to the forecast of experts of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banking institution, the gross domestic product of the EU will reach only 0.7%, while the previous estimate was 1.0%. The banking crisis that has the potential to affect the financial sector of the euro zone will be able to loosen the hawks' grip on the issue of monetary parameters correction, which will result in increasing the interest rate at the end of the next meeting of the regulatory agency officials only by 0.25% that will help avoid aggravation of the economic situation in the region. A 0.1% fall in inflation in February to 8.5% for the year due to lower energy prices to 13.7% from the previous 18.9% will contribute to strengthening the rhetoric of the "doves". ECB management reminded that officials are aware of the risks and are busy keeping a close eye on developments to apply preventive measures if necessary.Resistance levels: 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.NZDUSD: The "bears" have high chances to develop the potentialNZDUSD is moving steadily declining, revealing the potential of the "bears", which got the upper hand earlier, when the asset tested the local high of February 16.The block of macroeconomic statistics published the day before in New Zealand was unable to provide significant changes in the dynamics of the currency pair. Thus, exports in February slowed down to $5.23bn from $5.30bn, imports - to $5.95bn from $7.42bn. Thus, the level of the deficit in the trade balance for February remained at the previous levels of -$15.64 billion. Meanwhile, credit card spending for February unexpectedly gained 25.6% from January's strengthening of 17.9%, contrary to analysts' estimates of a decline to 9.4%.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350 and 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6049.AUDUSD: The RBA has assessed the willingness to raise the interest rate going forwardA weaker U.S. dollar allows the AUDUSD to test the 0.6690 level.Investors are studying the published reports on monetary issues, including the final minutes of the last meeting of the RBA officials, which have already noted that the agreement on the interest rate adjustment by 0.25% was reached before the meeting. According to the regulator, the national inflation dynamic is at its peak, but the demand for new home loans has collapsed and the construction market is showing enough negative signals for economists as rising prices and high mortgage rates continue to put pressure on the construction industry. The department agrees that subdued inflation will be able to provide an incentive to free up money supply from consumers to invest in the real estate sector even with the current mortgage situation. Based on the agreed arguments, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to tighten monetary policy going forward.Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6980.Support levels: 0.6610, 0.6390.Oil market analysisIn the morning session the price of WTI oil showed a slight decline having attempted to strengthen earlier and is now testing the level of 67.30, developing a drawdown in quotations.Investors were expecting China's economy to demonstrate higher recovery rates against the background of the rejection of the "zero tolerance" measures, which would remove a number of quarantine restrictions, as well as decrease the volume of raw material extraction capacities in Russia, but these expectations were not justified. In addition, market sentiment is an additional negative factor for "black gold", as traders fear that the banking sector will be too vulnerable to the crisis, catalyzing the global recession, which will affect the demand for energy market. According to the updated forecast released by the financial conglomerate Goldman Sachs, OPEC countries plan to increase the production volumes only by Q3 in 2024, and the price of oil may resume its positions at 94.00 for the next 12 months, after which it will consolidate at 97.00.Resistance levels: 68.04, 70.00, 71.00, 73.00.Support levels: 67.00, 65.74, 64.00, 63.00.
Mar 21, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY and Gold for today, March 20
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY and Gold for today, March 20 AUDUSD: Short-term sideways trend appears in the pairThe AUDUSD currency pair is trading in a moderate decline, resuming the dynamics of the "bears", having completed the two-day growth by the end of the previous week. The pair is in the area of 0.6700 descending correction, while the US dollar is under the pressure of the macroeconomic data and waiting for the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve's meeting, which is announced for the middle of the current week.Thus, analysts recorded a correction momentum for March consumer environment from the University of Michigan to 63.4 points from 67.0 points with a neutral market expectation, and industrial production for February showed zero growth, contrary to the forecasted decline to 0.2% from 0.3%. Market participants are predicting a hawkish course on monetary parameters from the Fed and a strengthening of the interest rate by 0.25% to reach the psychological threshold of the target of 5.00%, which may encourage regulator officials to take a wait-and-see break amid growing risks to the banking sector.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6563, 0.6500.USDCAD: The asset expects new incentives in the marketDuring the Asian trading the currency pair USDCAD shows a slight increase, holding positions in the area of 1.3720.Investors keep low dynamics on transactions, wishing to wait for new stimulus to activate the market. Experts continue to focus on the results of the meeting of the US FRS officials which will be held on Wednesday. They will be able to see the concrete decisions on the interest rate and to adjust their estimates regarding the further steps on the monetary policy. The current expectations foresee the increase of the index by 0,25% up to the target value of 5.00% while 26.0% of experts let the neutral dynamics at the current level of 4.75% be maintained. Recall that the cycle of incremental adjustment of the cost of credit borrowing faced significant challenges against the background of the evidence of the crisis in the national banking sector. Thus, the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank led the Treasury Department and the Fed to search for additional tools to stimulate economic stability, provoking a sharp increase in the agency's balance sheet and additional spending. The crisis was managed to buy, but investor sentiment did not ignore this fact, now they are concerned that the correction of the key indicator will only increase the shakiness of the situation.Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3900.Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3535.USDJPY: Experts are waiting to see the inflation dataThe trading instrument USDJPY is showing moderate strengthening, set to recover Friday's losses, which caused an update of the local low of February 14. The stock is in the area of 132.00, continuing to rise, but the "bulls" are very limited in potential.At the end of the week investors are waiting for the consumer price data for February. Preliminary estimates suggest that Japan's inflation rate will fall to 4.1% from 4.3% and the core indicator outside of the food group cost sector has a good chance of showing 3.1%, which is heavily inferior to January's value of 4.2% amid government subsidies for gas and electricity costs mitigating the sharp rise in households' living standards. Moreover, investors are waiting for Friday's statistics on Japanese business sentiment index, preliminary forecasts of which allow for a correction to 47.5 points from 47.7 points by Jibun Bank.Resistance levels: 133.00, 134.00, 134.54, 135.57.Support levels: 132.00, 131.00, 130.00, 129.39.Gold analysisThe precious metal is actively moving up towards 1975.0, taking advantage of a window of opportunity as the U.S. financial system is under severe pressure.Last week was marked by the bankruptcy of several major banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, which holds one of the top 30 credit institutions in the country. The financial uncertainty caused mass deposit closures by depositors, intensifying liquidity shortages, and the US Federal Reserve embarked on a stimulus package allowing banks to borrow from the regulator without an upper liquidity ceiling. Thus, last week the financial sector borrowed a record $300.0 billion from the regulator. By comparison, borrowing amounted to only $111.0 billion during the peak period of the 2008 crisis.Resistance levels: 1990.0, 2060.0.Support levels: 1950.0, 1870.0.
Mar 20, 2023 Read
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