{{val.symbol}}
{{val.value}}

BTC, ETH and XRP Price Analysis, April 16

Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, XRP/USD, cryptocurrency, BTC, ETH and XRP Price Analysis, April 16

BTC/USD

Bitcoin, 1H chart

Yesterday, the bears tried to push the pair below the two-hour EMA55, but support was felt around the 62000.00 USD mark, which helped the price to stay in consolidation.

Late in the evening, buyers tried to restore the price to the zone of the absolute maximum, but met resistance on the approach to the level of 64000.00 USD. In an overbought market, it will be difficult for the bulls to continue the race. 
Today, weak selling pressure may be limited to the moving average of EMA55, but the level of average prices will not be able to contain a powerful bearish momentum. In this case, the price will sink to the level of 61000.00 USD.

 

ETH/USD

Ethereum, 1H chart

Yesterday, the price of Ethereum managed to stay above the level of 2400.00 USD, and tonight the pair tested the level of 2500.00 USD, setting a new absolute maximum at the point of 2548.93 USD. 
Today, it is possible to increase sales volumes. In this case, the price of ETH will roll back to the blue trend line.  

 

XRP/USD

Ripple, 1H chart

Yesterday, trading volumes on Ripple declined, and the price of XRP could not stay in the ascending channel. The pair moved in a sideways range with support around the 1690 USD mark. At volumes below the average level, buyers will not be able to test the psychological level of $2 per coin.  
If today the bears push through the orange support of 1690 USD, the price will sink to the area of 1500 USD.

Trader Avatar

 

Other analytics by this trader

Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, March 13, 2024
USD/JPY, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, March 13, 2024 The dynamics of USD/JPY remains multidirectional. On Wednesday, the pair is approaching the level of 147.60. Yesterday, the instrument showed a noticeable increase caused by data on consumer inflation in the United States, which exceeded market expectations.The core consumer price index increased by 0.4% (mom) in February and reached 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. The base rate also increased from 3.1% to 3.2%. Analysts view this data as a signal for the continuation of the Fed's wait-and-see policy regarding rates this year. Nevertheless, investors still hope for at least three acts of monetary expansion before the end of 2024, if, of course, the price situation remains within the forecasts.On the other hand, the yen is receiving support in anticipation of a possible rejection of the Bank of Japan's policy of negative interest rates. Some analysts suggest that the regulator may take such a step as early as April. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the Japanese economy is showing signs of recovery, but significant recessive risks still exist. Given that household spending is improving moderately amid hopes for wage growth in the future, the Bank of Japan may raise the interest rate by 20 basis points to 0.10%.Data on manufacturing inflation in Japan also supported the yen: the producer price index rose by 0.2% in February, exceeding forecasts of 0.1%, and the index of domestic prices for corporate goods rose from 0.2% to 0.6%, also beating forecasts of 0.5%.According to Daily, the Bollinger band indicator is steadily declining, while the MACD indicator, being in the negative area, shows signs of growth and has already formed a weak buy signal. The Stochastic oscillator has also moved out of the oversold area and continues to grow.In case of a confident breakdown below 147.00, we open sales in the direction of 146.00. We set the stop loss at 147.51.When the pair breaks above 148.00, long positions with a take profit of 148.89 become relevant. In this case, we set the protective stop at 147.51.
Mar 13, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: US inflation report failed to disperse foreign currency assets
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: US inflation report failed to disperse foreign currency assets FOREX Fundamental analysis on March 13, 2024The report on February inflation in the United States exceeded analysts' expectations, but did not cause panic among investors. After the release of the data, stock indexes reached historical highs, and the EURUSD exchange rate showed amplitude fluctuations. The futures market has slightly reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June from 71% to 66%, but it nevertheless remains quite high. Summer is already on the way, and the prospect of the dollar is still quite vague.The growth of monthly inflation by 0.4% was in line with the forecasts of Bloomberg experts. The annual rate of 3.2% exceeded expectations of 3.1%. Core inflation slowed to 3.8% (YoY), which is also higher than the forecast of 3.7%. And the growth of 0.4% (mom) is higher than the expected 0.3%. Despite the stability of the overall downward trend in inflation, data for January and February indicate that the Federal Reserve's struggle with prices may be more difficult. As you know, it is easier to reset inflation from 9% to 3% than from 3% to 2%.For the EURUSD bears, the bad news was a slowdown in the growth of prices for services from 0.8% to 0.5% (mom). In addition, according to calculations by Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, the main PCE – the core inflation indicator for the Fed in February will rise by 0.2-0.3%, which is lower than January's +0.42%.According to former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren. The central bank is still counting on three acts of monetary expansion in 2024, starting in June. However, the updated FOMC forecast, which will be presented at the March 19-20 meeting, will show whether this is really the case.Although the expectations for the rate have not changed much, changes in the Fed's estimates may seriously affect the EURUSD. If the Federal Reserve decides to change its mind, given the stronger-than-expected US economy and accelerating inflation, this may lead to a change in the regulator's plans for the course of monetary policy. If the number of easing acts is reduced to two, the US dollar may show its strength.At the same time, the US inflation report has to some extent prevented the flight of the EURUSD bears. If the data had been as expected in Bloomberg, the pair could have risen above the 1.1 level. However, the risks of new consumer price highs still exist, which may mean a slower easing of the Fed's monetary policy than financial markets assume. In this case, the US dollar will still prove itself in forex currency trading.If EURUSD fails to gain a foothold above $1.0915, this will be a signal to build up short positions formed from $1.097. However, before the FOMC meeting on March 19-20, I consider consolidation in the range of 1.088-1.097 to be the most realistic scenario for EURUSD.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD is developing a correction of the short-term upward trend. The day before, the pair tested support in the area of 1.0897 - 1.0888, but unsuccessfully. Today, the bears will probably want to repeat yesterday's attempt.The failure of sellers will build a Double Bottom figure on the chart. In this case, after the signals appear, it is advisable to open purchases with the prospect of moving to the maximum from March 8. If the bears pass the support zone of 1.0897 - 1.0888, then their next target will be the area within the boundaries of 1.0855 - 1.0842. However, the boundary of the trend channel also runs here, which is an additional argument in favor of long positions.
Mar 13, 2024 Read
GBP/USD: pound maintains a positive outlook
GBP/USD, currency, GBP/USD: pound maintains a positive outlook GBP/USD analysis on 11 March 2024During Monday's Asian trading, GBP/USD is moving in different directions, consolidating near the 1.2850 level. At the beginning of the week, traders are in no hurry to form new positions, although the prospects for sterling against the background of British statistics remain quite interesting.For example, data from Halifax for February showed a decrease in the house price index from 1.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.3% to 1.7% on an annual basis, which slightly improved the indicators compared to previous periods. Tomorrow we are waiting for the report of the British labor market. Analysts predict that unemployment will remain at 3.8%, with a slight increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits from 14.1 thousand to 20.3 thousand, and the average salary, including bonuses, will remain around 6.2% and decrease from 5.8% to 5.7% excluding bonus payments. Sterling was also supported by the publication of a new UK budget plan from Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, which allowed us to focus on real macroeconomic indicators and expectations that the Bank of England is likely to begin a program of lowering interest rates among the last of the world's leading regulators: the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) may begin adjusting monetary policy already in June, whereas the British regulator is likely to join this cycle only in August.The US dollar continues to decline, trading at 102.60, negatively reacting to the slowdown in average hourly wage growth in February from 0.5% to 0.1%. In annual terms, this indicator increased by 4.3%, which is slightly worse than expected. The unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February. Among the positive aspects, it should be noted the increase in the number of people employed outside the agricultural sector -275.0 thousand, which is ahead of expectationsOn the daily chart, the trading GBP/USD is adjusted, approaching the resistance line of the global ascending channel 1.3000–1.2620.Technical indicators confirm the buy signal: the fast moving averages of the Alligator indicator straighten up, and the histogram of the awesome oscillator indicator forms ascending bars above the transition level.After consolidating above 1.2890, we open purchases in the direction of 1.3000. Placing a stop loss at 1.2850.We enter sales when the pair falls below 1.2800. The bears' target is 1.2700. We will set the stop loss at 1.2850.
Mar 11, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, March 11, 2024
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, March 11, 2024 During Monday's Asian session, USD/CHF develops an upward trend, correcting last week's drop and is currently testing the 0.8775 level, waiting for new drivers to continue moving.Updated data on US inflation for February will be published on Tuesday, and a report on the dynamics of production prices is expected on Thursday. Analysts' forecasts do not portend significant changes, so the market reaction may remain moderate. The consumer price index may rise from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and remain at 3.1% on an annual basis, and excluding food and energy resources, the indicator may decrease from 3.9% to 3.7%.Investors are also discussing labor market statistics : USA. In February, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased from 229.0 thousand to 275.0 thousand, exceeding analysts' expectations of 200.0 thousand, although the data of the last two months were revised downward. The average hourly wage in February slowed from 4.4% to 4.3% year-on-year and from 0.5% to 0.1% month-on-month.In Switzerland, February data on the dynamics of the producer price index and data on the volume of imports will be published on Thursday. Both are expected to decrease in the indicator.USD/CHF Technical Analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger bands indicator remains flat, the MACD indicator shows a decrease, which can be considered a weak sell signal. The Stochastic oscillator, turning up at the "20" level, indicates a possible development of upward dynamics.Purchases are rational when the pair is fixed above the 0.8782 mark. We set the take profit at 0.8820, and the protective stop at 0.8760.For sales, a drop in the quotation below 0.8760 is required. The nearest target for the bears is 0.8700. We will set the stop loss at 0.8790
Mar 11, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: the pair is changing direction
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the pair is changing direction FOREX Fundamental analysis on March 11, 2024The Fed's priorities are clear. The recent US employment report for February supported the idea of a gradual slowdown in economic growth. Although the economy is declining, it is not happening so abruptly that you have to worry too much about the risks of inflation. The Federal Reserve may start lowering rates. According to Bloomberg, the Central Bank may take this step as early as May, although earlier analysts saw the beginning of a cycle of monetary expansion in June. This scenario will easily explain the nature of the best EURUSD week this yearIn February, the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector increased by 275 thousand, exceeding the expectations of Bloomberg experts of 200 thousand. At the same time, the data for December and January were revised for the worse. With the unemployment rate rising to 3.9% and the slowdown in wage growth to 0.1% per month and 4.2% per year, a situation is being created that can be described as a "golden mean". The economy is slowing down, but it is still growing, and inflation is steadily moving towards the Fed's 2% target.Of course, the drop in stock prices and the downward pullback of the EURUSD from the maximum of two months may seem unexpected. However, this is quite logical. Recently, stock indexes did not expect a slowdown in the American economy, but its new acceleration, which somewhat disrupted their correlation with currencies. In addition, investors decided to insure themselves before the release of inflation data in the United States and recorded a profit in purchases.Bloomberg experts expect consumer price growth to stabilize at 3.1% and core inflation to slow from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year. These calculations will fully satisfy the Fed, which will present new interest rate forecasts in March. They are likely to be similar to the data published in December. This implies a reduction in rates at three FOMC meetings. However, if the February inflation data comes as a surprise, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its views.I believe that the US labor market statistics have become good news not only for the Fed, but also for the EURUSD. The slowdown in the American economy is an important signal for the main currency pair. The gap in economic growth forecasts between the US and the Eurozone has become significant.If forecasts for American GDP decline and European GDP, on the contrary, grow, the euro will strengthen its position in forex currency trading. In addition, the euro can be helped by China, where the economy has begun to recover. This is good news for the export-oriented Eurozone.Despite the successful sales of EURUSD after the rebound from the 1.097 level, short positions are becoming risky. It is better to return to the build-up of shorts when the pair falls below 1.0915. However, there is a high probability of a short-term consolidation of the euro against the US dollar before the publication of key US inflation data for February. Depending on the actual data, the bulls may launch an attack again in order to break above the 1.1 level.EUR/USD Technical analysisEUR/USD maintains an upward trend in the short term. During Friday's trading session, taking advantage of the release of the US labor market report, the pair tried to break above the upper limit of the range 1.0972 - 1.0946, but unsuccessfully. If the bulls fail to break above this resistance area today, then the asset will go into a downward correction with the nearest target in the support zone – 1.0897-1.0888. If successful, the bears will try to test the next support area 1.0855 - 1.0842.Entering long positions on EUR/USD is advisable only after working out a corrective decline. The nearest target for the bulls will be the Friday maximum of last week.
Mar 11, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: the dollar did not wait for help from the Fed
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the dollar did not wait for help from the Fed FOREX Fundamental analysis on March 7, 2024Investors expected Jerome Powell to oppose rate cuts in the first half of the year. But this did not happen, and they began to actively acquire treasuries, which led to a decrease in bond yields and hit the US dollar. Nevertheless, the EURUSD rally began during the European session, when Chancellor Jeremy Hunt supported not only the pound, but also other currencies of the Old World with fiscal incentives. Additionally, the positive news of German foreign trade helped the single currency.Has a soft landing been achieved? Jerome Powell refused to answer this direct and, in general, simple question, ignoring it. According to the head of the regulator, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) intends to continue working and will not declare victory over inflation. The strong performance of the US economy does not mean that the Central Bank will abandon its plans to ease monetary policy. On the contrary, he needs to carefully approach the first step. Investors realized that the latest data on the US labor market and inflation did not change the position of the Federal Reserve, and traders began to actively buy EURUSD.According to Jerome Powell, the Fed is not aiming for better CPI and PCE indicators; it just wants to get more data similar to the previous ones. The question of whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2024 seems to be resolved. If the US economy begins to show signs of slipping in the near future, the start of the monetary expansion cycle may occur as early as April. In this context, much will depend on the employment report. If the statistics are very disappointing, the EURUSD pair may rise above the 1.1 mark.However, before this happens, the main currency pair needs to be tested by a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). The split in the Governing Council is clear. The hawks emphasize the sustainability of service inflation and warn against hasty steps to ease monetary policy. They fear a repeat of the Fed's mistakes in the 1970s. On the other hand, the "pigeons" are paying attention to the rapid decline in consumer prices and are worried that keeping the deposit rate at 4% could damage the Eurozone economy.Reuters insiders claim that ECB officials are unlikely to reduce the cost of borrowing before June. Due to the strong labor market and high wage growth, the last stage of the fight against inflation will be the most difficult, and therefore the beginning of monetary expansion in March or April is extremely unlikely. Christine Lagarde's arguments in this regard can support EURUSD.The current situation is reminiscent of the period of autumn and winter 2023, when Jerome Powell was also expected to oppose market forecasts for a "dovish" Fed reversal. After this did not happen, gold reached record values, and the S&P 500 and EURUSD rose sharply.Overcoming the upper limit of the trading range of $1,077-1,088 by the pair changes the dynamics. While EURUSD quotes are holding above the 1.088 mark, preference should be given to purchases. The asset's return to consolidation mode will give the bears an opportunity to recover.
Mar 07, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: the market remains calm
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the market remains calm FOREX Fundamental analysis on March 6, 2024Everything is developing too fast and extending too far. This is a brief overview of the American stock indexes, bitcoin and gold, while forex currency trading remains remarkably calm. Since mid-January, EURUSD has been unable to get beyond the boundaries of the 1.07-1.09 trading range, and the discrepancy between market estimates and FOMC forecasts on the prospects for changes in Federal Reserve rates in 2024 fully supports the main currency pair. Will Jerome Powell be able to bring her out of this nirvana by speaking before Congress? How will the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank and the US labor market report affect the dynamics of the asset?In mid-2023, four out of five Bloomberg experts estimated that the U.S. economy would face a recession in the first half of next year, and grow by only 0.6%. These forecasts pushed the futures market to expect six acts of easing of the Fed's monetary policy, which provoked a drop in the dollar in the fourth quarter.However, over time, the situation has changed, and the clouds on the economic horizon of the United States have not thickened. The consensus estimate of GDP for 2024 has begun to grow, CME derivatives predict a reduction in the Federal Reserve rate by only 85 basis points this year, compared with 150 basis points at the end of 2023, and the dollar holds the lead among the Big Ten currencies.But events outside of North America are not helping the EURUSD. The euro, as a pro-cyclical currency, needs to revive the global economy, which is not yet there. The sharp decline in producer prices in the Eurozone implies the rapid achievement of the European inflation target of 2%. The European Central Bank is likely to revise its forecasts for consumer prices at its March meeting, which may accelerate the start of monetary expansion and put pressure on the main currency pair.Everything indicates that the EURUSD is likely to decline rather than rise. However, euphoria often brings losses to traders. Experts and investors are used to following the trend, but when everyone is confident in its continuation, the trend may change. The narrative of the recession in the US economy has been replaced by expectations of a soft landing. If macroeconomic indicators start to disappoint, market sentiment may change quickly, and this will become the basis for buying the euro. An improvement in the economic situation in the Eurozone can also change the situation.Two things are expected from Jerome Powell: confirmation that the January acceleration of inflation in the United States will not change the Fed's point of view, and assurance that the regulator will not rush to cut rates. In fact, these statements do not represent anything new, but investors' nerves are on edge, and even a small remark from a high-ranking official can encourage them to take action. If the EURUSD falls below 1.084, then we will get a sales signal.
Mar 06, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: will Jerome Powell put the Democrats in their place?
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: will Jerome Powell put the Democrats in their place? FOREX Fundamental analysis on March 5, 2024While Jerome Powell is preparing to besiege Democrats in Congress, reacting to their demands for a rapid reduction in federal funds rates, and Donald Trump wins the court, bringing a possible return to the presidency closer, the EURUSD exchange rate is smoothly sliding through waves of uncertainty. The bulls' attempts to overcome the barrier at 1.0865 are facing strong resistance from sellers. But should customers go on the offensive?Traders have been very active lately. According to research by West Virginia University, they open positions not an hour, but six hours before important news events. Seven out of twelve releases are usually predictable in the direction of market movement, but inflation and employment reports often put forex news trading enthusiasts in a difficult position.Inflation is becoming a difficult rebus, and its slowdown is associated with China. At the beginning of the 21st century, the world economy experienced the "Chinese shock" – a surge in imports of cheap goods that supported low inflation in developed countries. Now, with the overproduction of goods in China, the situation is repeating itself, although the economy of China is clearly slowing down. This contributes to deflationary effects.However, proponents of accelerated consumer price growth argue that a strong labor market leads to higher wages and accelerates service inflation. Consequently, the Fed's fight against high prices may prove to be a difficult task. Reducing inflation from 9% to 3% is easier to organize than from 3% to 2%.The Fed finds itself in a difficult position. The regulator will not only have to predict the direction of the PCE and CPI, but also make the right decision to reduce rates. At the same time, the Central Bank is under political pressure – Democrats demand an immediate easing of monetary policy, and Republicans fear that rate cuts could be used by the Federal Reserve for political purposes.Jerome Powell's fate is not easy either, but the markets believe in his competence. Investors are convinced that the Fed chairman will be able to resist the insistent demands of the Democrats and support the idea that monetary expansion will begin no earlier than the second half of 2024, which is favorable for the US dollar.The March ECB meeting and the US labor market report for February will be important events for EURUSD. Can the hypothesis that high employment and wages outside the agricultural sector stimulate service inflation be confirmed? If so, the main currency pair may head south, and vice versa. Currently, the eurodollar is fluctuating, and its inability to stay above the $1.0845 level may serve as a sales signal.
Mar 05, 2024 Read
Message sent successfully.
We will contact you soon!