
Analysis of the macroeconomic situationKey data is being released in the United States today: January reports on retail sales and industrial production. Retail sales, which are the main driver of the country's economic growth, are of particular interest because they reflect the state of private consumption, which continues to play a crucial role in the economy.Industrial production will also be carefully analyzed by investors, as its dynamics will allow them to assess how stable the manufacturing sector remains in the current economic uncertainty.In addition to these data, investors' attention is focused on annual producer price figures, which exceeded expectations in January. The annual growth was 3.6% compared with the forecast of 3.3%, while the monthly figure coincided with the consensus and remained at 0.3%. These data have already had an impact on the bond market, contributing to lower yields.Updating the situation in EuropeIn the Eurozone, the focus has shifted to employment data for the fourth quarter of 2024. Employment is projected to show a slight increase of 0.1% in quarterly terms, with Spain playing a key role in maintaining positive momentum, which is important for the overall growth of the region. In the UK, data has been published indicating stronger–than-expected GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 - 0.1% in the quarter, and the December figure was 0.4% month-on-month. The expansion in the industrial sector, services, and manufacturing had a positive impact, despite the downturn in construction. However, the decline in private consumption in the fourth quarter created additional pressure on the economy, although expectations for further recovery remain optimistic.In Switzerland, January inflation turned out to be higher than expected by the baseline indicator – annual growth was 0.9% instead of the projected 0.6%, while the overall consumer price index remained at 0.4%. These data may adjust the forecasts of the SNB, which at the last meeting expected inflation at 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, new inflation statistics will be published in the coming days before the next SNB meeting, scheduled for March 20.In Norway, a survey on investment in the oil sector confirmed expectations of a gradual slowdown in investment in 2025, and a decline in investment is also forecast next year. This is important because the reduction in capital investment leaves room to stimulate economically sensitive sectors.Stock, debt and foreign exchange marketsStock markets continued to show moderate activity. On Thursday, there was a "risk-on" effect: US indices recovered due to the growth of technology sector stocks, and the VIX volatility index dropped to 15, reflecting an improvement in investor sentiment. In Europe, cyclical companies led the way in terms of growth, which supported both the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600, increasing their performance by about 1.1%. However, small companies did not show significant improvement, and trading activity remained at the market level.In debt markets, global bond yields declined despite strong data on the US CPI. This is due to the fact that the expected increase in inflation rates and adjustments to statistical data did not have a significant impact on long-term indicators. The yield curve in the United States and Europe is showing moderate strengthening, and spreads between bonds of different countries have widened slightly.There have been significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. EUR/USD is gradually rising, thanks to reports of Zelensky's willingness to make territorial concessions to achieve peace, which supported the euro. The Swedish krona showed resilience, although it temporarily dropped to 11.22, then stabilized above 11.25. The Norwegian krone faced pressure due to weak internal data, which led to a temporary decrease in its ratio to the Swedish currency below 0.97. The Polish zloty continues to strengthen, reducing the euro's exchange rate against it to around 4.17.ConclusionToday's macroeconomic and market developments continue to have a significant impact on global financial markets. The publication of data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States, as well as updated inflation figures in Switzerland and survey results in Norway, create conditions for further monetary policy adjustments. At the same time, positive signals from the Eurozone and the UK indicate a possible recovery in economic activity. Investors should closely monitor data and geopolitical developments, as they will determine the dynamics of stock, debt, and currency markets in the coming weeks.