Today, markets are eagerly awaiting a meeting of American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia for peace talks initiated last week by President Trump. Ukrainian President Zelensky has clearly stated that any negotiations on the status of Ukraine without its participation will be invalid. These events can have a significant impact on the geopolitical situation and investor sentiment.
In Germany, the February ZEW index is published, reflecting expectations of the economic situation. In January, there was a positive surprise: the assessment of the current economic situation increased after a six-month decline. It will be interesting to see if this momentum, which has already been confirmed in the PMI and Ifo figures, continues. In the UK, labor market data for December and January are being released today. Particular attention is paid to the dynamics of wages, as wage growth remains a key factor for the Bank of England, despite the continued weakening of demand for labor. In Sweden, the main focus is on the detailed report on the consumer price index for January, published at 08:00 Central European time. The unexpected increase in core inflation (CPIF excluding energy) was impressive, which may indicate an increase in inflationary pressures and have serious consequences for the Riksbank's policy for 2025.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank lowered its target rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, the first reduction since 2020. This decision confirms that inflation is slowing, although the outlook remains uncertain.
In Europe, the crisis talks in Paris among the leaders of the region underlined the commitment to the strategy of "security through strength" to protect Ukraine. At the same time, cooperation with Washington remains critical to achieving peace. NATO Chief Mark Rutte and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands stressed their readiness to provide additional security measures for Ukraine. Despite the US decision to negotiate with Russia without the participation of European allies, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed his willingness to send peacekeeping troops provided American support. In response to these events, shares in the defense sector have reached new highs, and Denmark is considering setting up a fund for 50 billion Danish crowns to increase defense spending in the coming years.
In Sweden, the monthly labor market survey is expected to be published today. It is predicted that the current weak employment rate will stabilize, but significant improvements in the unemployment rate are not expected – this is in line with the latest PES data, showing a steady unemployment rate and a return of the number of layoffs to historical averages after a sharp increase in early autumn.
Stock, bond and currency markets
Stock markets showed moderate growth yesterday, although trading volumes remained modest due to the closure of the American stock exchanges on the holiday. European markets gained about 0.5%, setting a new record closing level for the year. Shares of defense companies rose especially strongly – the Swedish SAAB recorded an increase of 16% in a day, and by 30% in a week. Despite this, the overall dynamics remained in standby mode, and the volatility measured by the VIX increased again this morning. Futures rose slightly in the American market.
The debt market focuses on increasing government spending on defense and assistance to Ukraine. The EU is considering various options for financing these costs, from co–financing to temporarily suspending fiscal rules, as happened during the Covid-19 crisis. As a result, bond yields in Europe rose, but the difference between bond yields in the periphery and central countries remained relatively narrow, indicating that there was no apparent desire to flee to safety.
In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen showed strong results, becoming the clear leader in the G10 group, which was facilitated by the unexpectedly strong growth of the Japanese economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. Taking into account the closure of the US markets due to the holiday, EUR/USD remained stable slightly below 1.05. The USD/CAD pair has stabilized just below 1.42, while attention on the Canadian side is shifting to January inflation data, which will be published at 14:30 Central European time. The EUR/GBP exchange rate dropped to around 0.8300. The announcement by the Riksbank to roll out payments of 7.9 billion Swedish kronor over two months is not expected to have a significant impact on the market. In addition, EUR/SEK dropped below 11.22 and EUR/NOK dropped below 11.64, reflecting pressure on the Scandinavian currencies.