
The beginning of the week promises to be relatively calm on the macroeconomic front. In Denmark, the retail trade index for March will be published today at 08:00 Central European time. According to its own expense monitor, real retail sales decreased by 2.5% year-on-year. However, the decrease is due to the calendar effect: Easter last year fell in March, and this year in April. Seasonally adjusted, real sales increased by 1.8% compared to February, and official statistics are expected to reflect this positive trend.In Sweden, the producer price index for March will be published at the same time. These data, as well as the results of the NIER price Expectations survey published earlier this week, will be important for shaping inflation expectations and, consequently, for further actions by the Riksbank regarding changes in interest rates.Main events of the weekDuring the week, investors' attention will be focused on a variety of key publications. On Wednesday, PMI data from China and a preliminary estimate of US GDP for the first quarter are expected. On Thursday, attention will turn to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting. On Friday, preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone and the US employment report for April will be released.Friday and weekend eventsIn the United States, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April was revised upward to 52.2 points from an initial 50.8. Despite the revision, the index continues to decline for the fourth month in a row and is at its lowest level since July 2022. Uncertainty in trade policy and fears of rising inflation remain the reason for the deterioration in sentiment. Inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 6.5%, due to recent tariff initiatives, although the preliminary estimate was even higher — 6.7%.In Japan, Tokyo inflation (excluding fresh produce) accelerated to 3.4% in April, exceeding forecasts. This confirms the existence of stable inflationary pressures. The head of the Bank of Japan, Ueda, confirmed that further rate increases are possible if inflation approaches the target level of 2%. However, he noted that a trade war could weaken inflationary trends. Following this, we expect one of the two planned rate increases to be postponed to the fall and another to the first quarter of 2026.In China, industrial profits increased by 0.8% year-on-year in the first three months of 2025, which is a recovery from the recession at the beginning of the year. At the same time, private sector profits decreased by only 0.3%, which is significantly better than the previous drop of 9%.The US-China Trade War: conflicting signalsDespite President Trump's statements about the ongoing negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing has denied the fact of such negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary announced cooperation with Chinese representatives at the IMF meetings, but without discussing tariff issues. The Minister of Agriculture, in turn, noted the daily contacts on the topic of tariffs.Geopolitics: the meeting between Trump and ZelenskyIn Rome, as part of the funeral of Pope Francis, the first meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky took place since February. The negotiations were described as "very productive." Trump condemned Russia's recent attacks on civilian facilities in Ukraine and stressed the need to find alternative methods of pressure, including secondary sanctions. At the same time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the possible curtailment of peace initiatives if Russia and Ukraine do not show progress in negotiations.Greenland and Denmark strengthen their allianceAmid renewed U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland, autonomy's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen visited Copenhagen. The meeting with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen ended with a joint statement of unity: the fate of the island will be decided solely by the Greenlanders.Equity markets: recovery continuesThe past week has brought significant growth in the stock markets: the S&P 500 index has gained 5%, and the European and Scandinavian indexes — about 3%. Cyclical securities grew especially strongly, outperforming defensive assets by more than 5%. On Friday, the growth continued: the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the Stoxx 600 - 0.4%. Asian markets are showing neutral dynamics this morning, and futures on US indices are slightly declining.Debt and foreign exchange markets: moderate movementsLast week ended with a decline in US government bond yields: yields on 2-year securities fell by 5 basis points, while 10- and 30-year yields fell by 8 points. The yield curve has straightened somewhat. In Europe, yields, on the contrary, rose slightly, despite the soft comments from ECB representatives. In the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD pair consolidated in the range of 1.13–1.14. The franc and the yen weakened slightly amid an improvement in global risk appetite. This week, the focus will be on data on inflation, GDP and the labor market in the United States and the eurozone, as well as the meeting of the Bank of Japan.