EUR/USD: is the dollar rising, but fundamentally weakening?

AUD/USD analysis on March 31, 2025The Australian dollar continues to adjust within the downward trend, falling to the level of 0.6278. The main factor putting pressure on quotes was weak economic data for Australia, reflecting continued uncertainty about inflation and credit activity.The report published by the Melbourne Institute for March indicated an increase in expected inflation of 0.7% against the previous decrease of 0.2%. This indicator often correlates with the official consumer price index, which increases market participants' concerns about inflationary pressures. Additional support for this scenario is provided by the report of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), according to which mortgage lending remained at 0.4% in February, while the total volume of loans to the private sector increased by 0.5%.The RBA is expected to meet tomorrow at 05:30 (GMT+2), at which the regulator is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.10%. However, the rhetoric of the Central Bank's representatives will be crucial: if the statement contains cautious assessments of the prospects for monetary policy, the AUD rate may continue to decline. At the same time, some analysts do not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in June or July, given the stabilization of economic activity and the gradual weakening of inflation.The US dollar index remains under pressure and is currently consolidating around 103.50. The greenback ended last week in the negative zone, developing a downward trend that has been observed since the beginning of the year.The current weakening of the dollar is largely due to disappointing data from the University of Michigan. The consumer expectations index in March decreased from 64.0 to 52.6 points, which is the lowest value since July 2022. The consumer sentiment index also fell from 64.7 to 57.0 points and reached a 29-month low.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the lower boundary of the ascending channel with a range of 0.6480–0.6250.Technical indicators confirm the strengthening of the downward momentum:– The moving averages on the Alligator indicator are directed downwards, increasing the discrepancy with the signal line.– The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram shows descending bars in the negative zone, reinforcing the sell signal.Trading recommendations– Selling: It is possible to open short positions after breaking through the 0.6250 level and consolidating below it, with a target at 0.6140. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.– Purchases: they will be relevant in case of growth and consolidation of the price above 0.6310, with a target of 0.6410. The protective stop is 0.6250.Thus, the short-term outlook for AUD/USD remains bearish, and further developments will depend on the outcome of the RBA meeting and the general sentiment towards the US dollar.

The USD/CHF pair is showing a steady downward trend, and after another interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank, it reached the level of 0.8791. The regulator eased monetary policy for the fifth time in a row, setting the key rate at 0.25%, which corresponds to the interim target. This move forced analysts at Citigroup Inc. to revise forecasts, narrowing the expected trading range to 0.8500-0.9000 against previous expectations of the upper limit at 0.9300.The head of the NBS Martin Schlegel pointed to the continuing uncertainty in the global economy caused by trade restrictions from the United States. These measures create difficulties for long-term forecasting of economic development dynamics. At the same time, the regulator expects a possible acceleration of inflationary processes, which may lead to a pause in the cycle of monetary expansion. NBS continues to monitor the situation, ready to make additional adjustments if necessary to maintain price stability.The US dollar index continues to weaken for the third consecutive session. The USDX index sank to 103.50. Pressure on the US currency increased after the publication of data from the University of Michigan: the consumer expectations index fell to 52.6 points (the lowest since July 2022), and the overall consumer sentiment index fell to 57.0 points (the lowest level since November 2022).USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is correcting within the descending channel with the boundaries of 0.8850-0.8650. Technical indicators confirm the bearish signal:- The fast moving averages on the Alligator indicator are located below the signal line- The Awesome Oscillator indicator forms ascending bars in the negative zoneTrading recommendationsFor sales- Entry when anchored below 0.8760- Target level: 0.8630- Protective order: 0.8820For purchases- Entry at an upward breakout of 0.8850- Target level: 0.8990- Protective order: 0.8800

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global markets.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 31, 2025The rapid growth of gold and the simultaneous weakening of the US dollar have a common root — the growing wave of anti-globalization. The decision of Western countries to freeze Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves in 2022 was a turning point that forced central banks around the world to reconsider their strategy and pay more attention to the gold reserves, especially for countries outside the Western camp. The growing demand for gold reduces interest in the greenback and helps strengthen EUR/USD.Donald Trump's policy of "restoring America's greatness" is unexpectedly undermining confidence in the dollar. The more actively Washington uses sanctions and protectionist measures, the stronger the euro grows. In 2025, the US dollar is no longer perceived as a safe haven asset. Investors are looking for alternatives — the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and, of course, gold.The aggressive US trade policy is alienating even traditional allies. The question is whether the largest holders of US government debt, such as Japan and China, will want to start diversifying reserves in retaliation for tariffs. If this happens, the pressure on the dollar will increase.Previously, in times of crisis, the dollar was strengthening and the stock market was falling. Now, the S&P 500 and USD are showing synchronous movement. Such a correlation of the US currency and the stock index looks, at least, illogical. The explanation is simple: the dollar is losing its "safe haven" status, and foreign investors are reducing investments in American assets. For example, Europeans have lost about 13% since the beginning of the year due to the fall in both US stocks and the dollar exchange rate.Trump's actions are pushing the US economy towards a dangerous scenario — a combination of stagnation and inflation. Consumer confidence is falling, and employment forecasts are deteriorating. Goldman Sachs expects that the Fed will have to ease policy more actively in 2025 — not two, but three times.The last straw may be the introduction of universal tariffs, which have been discussed again in the White House. If earlier Trump calmed the markets by talking about "soft" measures, now investors are nervous again, getting rid of both the dollar and stocks.Long positions on EUR/USD formed in the 1.0735-1.0755 zone look promising. Even though inflation is slowing in Europe, capital flight from the dollar is supporting the euro. In the event of a breakdown of the 1.0845 resistance, the uptrend may accelerate, paving the way for more significant growth.

Inflation data and economic activity in the USAThis week, the February report on the Personal consumer Spending Index (PCE), which is the preferred indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System (FRS), will be published in the United States. In addition, the revised consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for March is expected to be released. Although revised data rarely have a significant impact on markets, in conditions of political uncertainty, it is worth paying increased attention to them.Inflation in the eurozone: expectations of a decline in indicatorsIn the eurozone, investors' attention will be focused on the March inflation data in Spain and France, the publication of which precedes the pan-European HICP index, which will be released next week. Inflation in the euro area is projected to decrease from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, due to easing price pressures on energy and services. Core inflation is also expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.4%.Sweden: wage negotiations and retail salesNegotiations on a new wage agreement are continuing in Sweden, which is expected to be concluded by March 31. The latest proposal suggests a three-year agreement with a 7.7% salary increase, which is lower than expected. This may indicate possible downside risks in salary growth forecasts. The retail sales report for February will also be released this week. Sales showed steady growth last year, but the January decline and low consumer confidence may signal a continuation of the downward trend.China: restoration of industrial productionIn China, official PMI indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for March will be released on Monday. The consensus forecast assumes a moderate increase in indicators, but a more significant rise is likely, given the positive dynamics of the Emerging Industries PMI index and rising metal prices in March. This indicates a possible recovery in activity in the industrial sector.Markets and macroeconomic developmentsUSA: comments from the Fed representativesIn the United States, Susan Collins, a representative of the Boston Fed, said that an increase in inflation due to the introduction of tariffs is inevitable, but its duration remains uncertain, and monetary policy should remain unchanged. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that high uncertainty could force businesses to temporarily suspend activity, which also requires a cautious approach to monetary policy.Gold and commodity marketsGold prices reached $3,076.79 per ounce as the introduction of new tariffs in the United States, geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in global economic growth led to increased demand for defensive assets.Japan: rising inflation reinforces expectations of rate hikesJapan has published data on the consumer price index in Tokyo for March. The core CPI index (excluding fresh food) rose to 2.4% YoY, exceeding the consensus forecast (2.2%). This reinforces expectations of further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan. We forecast two rate hikes of 25 bps each before the end of the year, the next of which is likely to take place in July.USA: revised GDP and reaction to new tariffsIn the United States, the revised GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was adjusted upward to 2.4% (consensus forecast: 2.3%) due to a less pronounced negative contribution from inventory changes. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits remained stable.The announcement of the introduction of 25% tariffs on cars caused a mixed reaction among US trading partners. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that trade relations with the United States have changed and a review of agreements is required. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the development of measures to protect the interests of the EU.Eurozone: credit momentum and ECB rhetoricIn February, lending in the eurozone continued to grow: household lending increased to 1.5% (from 1.3% in January), and to the corporate sector — to 2.2% (from 2.0%). This indicates that the effects of lower interest rates are being transferred to the real economy. However, the credit impulse, estimated at 1.17% of GDP, remains low by historical standards, despite the ECB's rate cut of 150 bps over the past year.The speeches of the ECB representatives were mixed. Many members of the Governing Council stressed the inflationary risks associated with tariffs, indicating a gradual shift by the regulator towards a more cautious approach.Norway: Central bank policyThe Bank of Norway left its key interest rate at 4.50%, but maintained a relaxed outlook. Two rate cuts are expected in 2025 and a possible cut in June under favorable conditions. We are revising the forecast for 2025 and expect two rate cuts (in September and December), three cuts in 2026 and a final cut in 2027 to 3.00%.Stock markets: reactions to new tariffsStock markets declined, but not as significantly as might have been expected after the announcement of the new tariffs. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, while the European Stoxx 600 declined 0.5%. Over the past two weeks, American stocks have outperformed European stocks by 2 percentage points, but we recommend focusing on the fundamental factors that continue to favor Europe.The protective sectors showed the greatest growth — consumer goods and healthcare, while the technology sector (Nvidia), industry (automobiles) and energy declined. It is important to consider the ability of companies to price in the new environment. For example, Volkswagen shares declined by only 1.5%, while Stellantis fell by 4.2%, BMW by 2.5%, and French supplier Valeo lost 8% after announcing the need to raise prices due to tariffs.The European real estate sector grew by 2% due to lower European bond yields amid tariff news.The foreign exchange marketEUR/USD remains in the range of 1.08–1.09 with a slight advantage of the bulls. European interest rates have changed little, but the government bond yield curve continues to show an upward trend. The Swedish krona (SEK) exchange rate remains stable, but in the short term, upward risks in cross-rates are possible.

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 28, 2025As America's Liberation Day approaches, markets are cautious about the possible imposition of 25% tariffs on car imports.Despite Bloomberg forecasts of a potential 0.5 percentage point decline in German GDP, the EUR/USD pair is showing resilience and is stable around the 1.08 mark.Euro support factors1. Postponing the introduction of measures: UBS analysts admit a scenario in which the US administration may extend the deadline for making a final decision, postponing the real start of a trade conflict.2. Buffered stocks of car dealers: The availability of 2-3-month stocks from European exporters creates a temporary safety cushion for the EU economy.3. Fiscal stimulus in Germany: Planned budget support measures (estimated by Deutsche Bank at €1 trillion) may offset some of the negative effect of trade restrictions.The largest car suppliers in the USARisks to the American economy- According to Morgan Stanley estimates, the introduction of duties will lead to an increase in car prices in the United States by 11-12%, which:- Will increase inflationary pressure- Will limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy- As noted by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, such measures create a dilemma for the central bank, forced to choose between controlling inflation and supporting the economy.The dynamics of American inflationThe current positioning of EUR/USD indicates:- Formation of a potential base in the 1.0735-1.0755 zone- The possibility of a breakdown of resistance in the area of 1.0820 to confirm the upward momentumConclusions and recommendations1. The short-term stability of the euro is explained by:- Expectation of postponement of trade measures- Training of European exporters- The difference in macroeconomic cycles (US slowdown vs EU fiscal support)2. The prospect of medium-term consolidation looks preferable, however:- The final decision on tariffs (expected on April 2) remains a key risk- The Fed's reaction to the inflationary consequences may change the balance of powerA trading strategy involves- Gradual build-up of long positions while consolidating above 1.0820- Installation of protective orders below 1.0735- Monitoring of official comments on trade policy

During Thursday's Asian session, USD/JPY is showing a moderate correction, retreating from recent highs. The pair is stabilizing near the level of 150.15. After active growth the day before, the market switched to standby mode before the publication of important macroeconomic data that may set the direction of movement for the coming sessions.The main attention of market participants is focused on inflation data in Tokyo (23:30 GMT), a key indicator for the Bank of Japan in assessing the prospects for monetary policy changes. The core consumer price index (excluding fresh food) is expected to remain at 2.2% in March, while the broader index may reach 2.9%.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, recently confirmed that the regulator is ready to consider raising interest rates if inflationary dynamics become stable. However, the February increase in the nationwide CPI to 3.7% and the baseline to 3.0% was largely due to temporary factors such as rising import costs. Ueda expects core inflation to approach the 2.0% target only in the second half of fiscal year 2026-2027, which pushes back the prospect of policy tightening.Today we should pay attention to the American statistics- Base PCE index (14:30 GMT+2) — expected to grow from 2.6% to 2.7% in annual terms- University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (16:00 GMT+2) — forecast to remain at 57.9 pointsYesterday's data on durable goods orders in February showed an unexpected increase (0.9% versus the expected -1.0%), which temporarily supported the dollar.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayOn the Daily, the main forex indicators give the following signals:- Bollinger bands indicate a moderate uptrend with an expansion of the price range- The MACD indicator retains a buy signal, testing the zero mark- Stochastic is rolling back from the overbought zone, signaling a possible short-term correctionTrading recommendations1. Selling: A breakdown below 150.00 opens the way to 149.09. Stop loss is 150.50.2. Purchases: A rebound from 150.00 followed by a rise above 150.50 may lead to a test of 151.50. Stop loss is 150.00.

Key economic events and market trendsUSA: GDP revision and tariff impactIn the second half of the day, a revised estimate of GDP growth will be published in the United States. However, no significant impact on the markets is expected.The main news was the announcement by the US president of the introduction of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign cars and auto parts from April 2. The move has raised concerns among trading partners, including the EU and Canada, which are considering retaliatory measures. The impact of these tariffs on inflation also remains in focus, as they may increase price pressures, leading to a review of the Fed's policy.In addition, in February, orders for durable goods increased by 0.9% against the forecast of -1.0%. However, this did not lead to significant movements in the market.Eurozone: credit activity and ECB policyData on monetary aggregates and lending will be published in the eurozone today. In the context of the ECB's ongoing debate on monetary policy rigidity, credit growth data will be key. In recent months, lending to the private sector has increased to 2% YoY, but the momentum (the difference between new and repaid loans) remains stable at 1%, indicating continued policy rigidity.In addition, representatives of the ECB, including Isabelle Schnabel, will speak today, which may give additional signals on the future policy course.Norway: Norges Bank rate decisionNorges Bank is expected to lower its key rate to 4.25%, despite the fact that market expectations estimate the probability of this step at only 25-30%. Inflation in February was higher than expected, which could support a tougher policy. However, Norges Bank is likely to focus on slowing inflation, low capacity utilization and maintaining a restrictive policy, which may be an argument in favor of lowering interest rates. We also expect the forecasts for 2025-2028 to be revised towards two rate cuts in 2025.United Kingdom: lower inflation and prospects for lower ratesUK inflation in February was lower than expected: the overall index was 2.8% YoY (forecast: 3.0%), while core inflation fell to 3.5% YoY (forecast: 3.6%). These data reinforce expectations of a possible rate cut by the Bank of England at the next meeting, especially if inflation remains within expectations in the April report.In the political sphere, the Government's spring budget was in line with expectations, confirming its commitment to fiscal stability measures. The initial reaction of the bond market was sharp, but by the end of the day, the yield on 10-year Gilts had dropped by only 1-3 bps.Sweden: worsening economic sentimentThe latest NIER economic survey showed a decline in confidence in the economy, especially among consumers, indicating continued weak sentiment. The planned price increase in March was higher than normal, which increases concerns about stagflation.The minutes of the Riksbank meeting reflected a balanced approach: despite high inflation, the bank considers its acceleration as temporary. Overall, the current policy course remains balanced, but the market may overestimate expectations for a rate hike, especially in the face of rising inflation.Geopolitics: tensions between Russia and UkraineThe ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, as the sides accuse each other of violating the agreements. The EU has rejected Russia's terms of the Black Sea agreement, raising uncertainty. A meeting of the leaders of the EU and Ukraine will take place in Paris today, where the issue of security will be discussed.Stock market: reaction to trade barriersUS stock markets closed lower amid news about Trump's tariffs. IndexThe S&P 500 fell 1.1%, but the equally weighted S&P 500 declined only 0.2%, indicating targeted sales in the automotive sector, including Tesla and other manufacturers.Despite the negative sentiment, US futures are trading with a slight increase, while European markets are showing weakness.Currency and debt market: expectations of Norges Bank's decisionAmid rising geopolitical risks and tariff news, EUR/USD initially declined, but then recovered, trading just below 1.08. The Scandinavian currencies moved in different directions, with a slight weakening of NOK/SEK.Today, the key event will be Norges Bank's rate decision, and despite the uncertainty, we see the likelihood of a 25bp decline.