EUR/USD: is the dollar rising, but fundamentally weakening?

USD/JPY analysis on April 8, 2025During Thursday's Asian session, the US dollar, after a recent pullback from September lows. It is recovering moderately against the Japanese yen, testing the level of 142.65. The movement takes place against the background of the release of contradictory data on Japanese foreign trade.March exports showed a noticeable slowdown to 3.9% after February's 11.4%, falling short of the 4.5% expected by the market. At the same time, imports showed an increase of 2.0% after the previous decline, and the trade surplus amounted to 544.1 billion yen, which was higher than consensus forecasts.The Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook remains cautious. At the upcoming meeting on April 30 - May 1, the regulator is likely to keep the rate at the current level of 0.50% and may revise down economic growth forecasts. Central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed his intention to continue the gradual normalization of policy, although he acknowledged that trade tensions could delay the achievement of the 2% inflation target.According to preliminary data, the current US-Japanese trade negotiations are showing "good progress." After the temporary cancellation of duties for 90 days, Japan is faced with a base rate of 10%, while maintaining significant 25% car export fees - a key item of Japanese supplies.Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on American statistics on applications for unemployment benefits and building permits. A moderate increase in the number of applications for benefits and a slight decrease in building permits are expected.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayThe technical picture confirms the downtrend, despite the current recovery. The indicators show mixed signals: the MACD shows weak signs of a reversal while maintaining an overall bearish mood, and the stochastic oscillator, being in the oversold zone, has not yet given clear signals of a trend change.For traders considering further weakening of the pair, the key entry level remains a breakdown of 142.00 down with the prospect of moving to 140.00. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at 143.00.An alternative scenario assumes the development of corrective growth with a breakout of the level of 143.35, which opens the way to testing 145.00. In this case, we move the stop loss to 142.50.

The Australian dollar is showing a moderate decline against the US currency, correcting around 0.6341 after recently rising to its highest levels since the end of February. The pressure on the instrument is exerted by ambiguous macroeconomic data from Australia, where the labor market situation has shown contradictory signals. March statistics recorded an increase in the number of employed by 32.2 thousand after February's drop of 57.5 thousand, which was lower than the projected 40.0 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1%, which is still better than the expected 4.2%.The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a cautious stance in the minutes of the last meeting, stressing the inability to determine the timing of rate changes due to the continuing uncertainty caused by US trade policy. The regulator has clearly outlined the need to continue fighting inflation, eliminating the possibility of premature monetary policy easing.The Australian dollar was positively influenced by encouraging data from China, where industrial production growth accelerated to 7.7% and retail sales increased to 5.9%. China's gross domestic product grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations.There were mixed signals from the United States - a 1.4% increase in retail sales in March temporarily supported the dollar, but a 0.3% decline in industrial production indicated possible problems in the real sector of the economy.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayThe technical picture shows that the daily AUD/USD chart continues to expand the trading range while maintaining bullish signals. The MACD continues to generate buy signals, while the stochastic oscillator indicator turns down, indicating the likelihood of a short-term correction.For traders considering a bearish scenario, the signal for entry is a breakdown of the 0.6324 mark downwards with the prospect of a move to 0.6274. In this case, it is recommended to place a protective stop loss at the level of 0.6350.An alternative bullish scenario involves entering on a rebound from the 0.6324 support followed by consolidation above 0.6350, which opens the way to testing the 0.6408 level. It is advisable to set the stop loss for long positions at 0.6324.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 17, 2025It's hard to imagine a more dramatic fall. The US dollar is off to its worst start to the year since 1995, losing 8% of its value against a basket of major currency indexes. The root of the problem lies in Washington's protectionist policy, which has forced investors to withdraw capital from American assets en masse. The consequences are felt not only by foreign exporters, but also by American companies themselves with a significant share of foreign income.The World Trade Organization has revised forecasts for the United States down significantly: instead of the expected 2.7% increase in international trade in 2025, a 0.2% decline is now forecast. With further escalation of trade conflicts, the decrease may reach 1.5%.Paradoxically, despite the obvious risks to the export-oriented EU economy, the euro continues to strengthen. This phenomenon is explained by the massive flow of capital into assets of the Old World, especially into German government bonds, which have become a new "safe haven" for frightened investors.The politics of uncertaintyThe situation continues to deteriorate: NVIDIA's announcement of new restrictions on chip exports to China (now requiring special licenses) provoked a new wave of sales on Wall Street and additional pressure on the dollar.The Fed found itself in a difficult position: on the one hand, tariffs stimulate inflation, on the other, they cool the labor market. As the chairman of the Federal Reserve noted, the central bank now resembles a goalkeeper who does not know which way to jump in a penalty shootout.Even positive data on retail sales in the United States (+1.4% in March) could not support the dollar - the market regarded this growth as a result of "panic purchases" before the introduction of new duties, which in the future could lead to a sharp slowdown in consumer activity.The prospects of the euroDespite its own problems (including the expected reduction in the ECB deposit rate on April 17 from 2.5% to 2.25%), the euro remains dominant. While the EUR/USD pair is trading above the key support level of 1.1290, buyers are dominating the market.Any short-term declines in the euro amid rumors of an easing in ECB policy should be seen as an opportunity to build up long positions. The current environment continues to favor the European currency, despite all the fundamental contradictions of this situation.

USD/CHF analysis on April 15, 2025The US currency is attempting a moderate recovery against the franc, starting from local lows around 0.8168. The appreciation is largely due to technical aspects, while the macroeconomic background remains generally stable and does not show significant changes.However, the general direction of the dollar is still determined by global factors, in particular, increased trade tensions, which can put significant pressure on the pace of global economic recovery. Washington has previously stepped up its protectionist policy by imposing duties on imports from most countries, ranging from a base level of 10% to a critical 50%. Later, a 90-day delay was introduced, during which the same conditions apply, but for some countries the restrictions have already entered into force. The situation is particularly acute in relation to China, where a maximum rate of 145% has been introduced for goods from it. Beijing immediately responded with mirror measures. Despite the targeted exceptions for certain categories of technological products, including microchips and smartphones, the US president stressed that duties would remain at about 20%, refuting rumors about their cancellation.Fundamental signals and economic indicators of SwitzerlandThe latest statistics from Switzerland turned out to be weaker than expected. The producer and import price index slowed to 0.1% in March, with a forecast of 0.2%, and went into negative territory in annual terms — minus 0.1%. In the near future, markets will monitor the publication of data on foreign trade for March, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. Most investors are confident of reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.40%.According to calculations by the KOF Institute for Economic Research, the Swiss economy may suffer significant losses due to the US tariffs at 31%. The rising cost of exports, especially in high–tech and pharmaceutical segments, threatens to reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, and with the expansion of sanctions on pharma, this range may be even higher. Analysts point out that the duration of the restrictions will be a key factor. The restructuring of production processes and logistics will require significant costs and is accompanied by increased uncertainty regarding the efficiency and reliability of new supply chains.Expectations for the US macroeconomicsInvestors are focusing on the March retail sales statistics, which will be published tomorrow. According to experts, the indicator may grow by 1.4% compared to the previous value of +0.2%. Also on the agenda is data on industrial production, which is expected to decline by 0.2% after an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. It is the readings of economic indicators that will become critically important for the further positioning of the dollar against the background of high uncertainty in global trade.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to expand in a downward direction, which indicates that there is potential for further decline. The MACD indicator retains a confident sales signal, as its histogram remains below the signal line. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone and is showing an upward reversal, which may indicate a potential rebound in the short term.Trading IdeasSales will be justified in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.8098 support level downwards with the nearest target at 0.8000. A protective stop is placed at 0.8150.If there is a reversal and consolidation above the level of 0.8200, this may be a signal to open long positions with a target at 0.8315. In this case, a stop loss at 0.8150 is also recommended.

The pound is showing short-term strengthening against the dollar, testing the 1.3200 level amid mixed data on the UK labor market. Employment in February showed an increase from 144 thousand to 206 thousand, but wage growth (excluding bonuses) was below forecasts – 5.9% against the expected 6.0%. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, while the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased to 18.7 thousand in March (forecast – 30.3 thousand).Tomorrow, the market expects the publication of inflation data: analysts predict that the core consumer price index will remain at 3.5%, while the overall indicator may slow down from 2.8% to 2.7%.Additional support for the pound is provided by data on the housing market from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in April, asking prices for real estate increased by 1.4% month-on-month, reaching a record high of 377,182 thousand pounds. However, experts note that the current growth may slow down due to the end of tax incentives for low-cost real estate transactions. The impact of US trade policy on the British market remains uncertain, but a potential easing of the Bank of England's monetary policy may have a stimulating effect.Pressure factors on the dollarToday, investors' attention will be focused on data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (forecast: -12.4 points versus -20.0 points earlier), as well as on the Redbook retail sales index. March data on retail sales (forecast: +1.4% after +0.2%) and industrial production (forecast: -0.2% after +0.7%) are expected to be published tomorrow.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayThe daily chart of GBP/USD shows moderate growth with the expansion of the price range. The MACD indicator retains a bullish signal, while the stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates the risks of a short-term correction.Trading recommendations- Long positions: Breaking the 1.3250 level up opens the way to the 1.3340 target. The stop loss is 1.3200.- Short positions: A breakout of the 1.3150 support creates the prerequisites for a decline to 1.3050. The stop loss is 1.3200.

Focus on Germany: ZEW Sentiment index and expectationsToday, the key event on the European macroeconomic agenda will be the publication of the ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany for March. According to the consensus forecast, the index value may drop significantly to 9.5 points, which is likely due to the ongoing turbulence in global trade and weak readings of economic indicators in the region. Recall that in February, the indicator of current economic conditions unexpectedly rose to 51.6 after a January jump from 26.0, ending a six-month downward trend. This time, the market expects only a slight improvement in the current estimate, to -86.8 from -87.6 last month.Sweden's spring budget: no market effectIn Sweden, the spring revision of the state budget will be presented at 8:00 Central European time. The main parameters of the project are already known: the volume of reforms is 11.5 billion crowns, while the central initiative will be the extension of tax benefits for housing repairs. Earlier in March, the government announced plans for a long-term increase in defense spending, but the final targets for them will be formed only in June, after the NATO summit, and they will not be included in the current budget version. For this reason, the impact of the document on financial markets will be minimal.United Kingdom: labor market dataAt 8:00 a.m., the UK will publish the employment report for February-March. Although this event traditionally has an impact on the pound, the current market agenda is focused on trade conflicts and interest rate policy, so the reaction to the publication may be limited.Overall market picture: cautious optimism amid tariff uncertaintyThe main attention of market participants remains focused on the escalation of tariff disputes. In the United States, Fed member Christopher Waller made a mild comment, noting that in the face of a significant slowdown in the economy due to high tariffs, he would support an earlier and large-scale rate cut. His words are especially important, given that Waller often reflects a consensus opinion within the FOMC.In China, exports increased by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding expectations (4.4%). However, given the upcoming tariff policy changes, these data are temporary. In April, we can expect a sharp decline in shipments, especially towards the United States. Against this background, the global trade picture remains uncertain.Financial markets: cautious recovery in risk appetiteStocks on global markets showed growth on Monday amid hopes that the peak of the tariff war may have already passed. European securities outperformed American ones, and defensive sectors outperformed cyclical ones in terms of profitability for the third day in a row – a clear signal that investors are becoming more selective and are beginning to take into account structural risks.On Wall Street, all key indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 gained 0.8% each, the Nasdaq 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 1.1%. Positive sentiment prevailed in Asia on Tuesday, with European futures also showing growth.Dollar, Euro and yields: EUR/USD recoveryAfter falling to the level of 1.1300, the EUR/USD currency pair regained momentum amid easing concerns about the recession in the United States and signs of flexibility in the tariff policy of the White House. The Norwegian krone and the British pound also showed growth following the stock indexes. In Europe, yields on two-year swaps dropped below 2%, reflecting a general shift towards a soft policy. US government bond yields also declined, partly due to Waller's comments, which focused on the possible reaction of the Fed in the event of a slowdown in the labor market.Today, special attention will be paid to the "tax day" in the United States – the date when the maximum inflow of funds to the budget traditionally occurs, which can affect the short-term liquidity and dynamics of treasury securities.

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025The transformation of the international trading system initiated by the Trump administration has led to unexpected consequences that go beyond the initial forecasts.The US dollar, traditionally considered a safe haven for investors, has suddenly turned into an asset with increased volatility. Its dynamics now show a paradoxical correlation with the stock market, strengthening against the backdrop of the growth of the S&P 500 and the decline in Treasury yields.Paradigm shift: the search for alternativesPolitical instability and the inconsistency of US trade policy have forced investors to look for a replacement for the dollar. Along with the classic defensive assets - the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and gold - the euro has gained unexpected popularity. The situation on the government debt market has become particularly significant: massive sales of treasuries have given rise to speculation about a possible reduction in Chinese reserves (amounting to $760 billion), which has led to a flow of capital into German bunds. This process has become a catalyst for the strengthening of the euro to the highs of three years ago.Paradoxical relationshipsThe most surprising phenomenon was the direct relationship between the dynamics of the S&P 500 and the dollar exchange rate, which indicates a fundamental change in the perception of the US currency - it turned from an "asset of pessimists" into an "instrument of optimists."Narrative controlThe US administration demonstrates a clear understanding of market fears and is actively trying to neutralize them:- Denial of recession risks (Kevin Hassett)- Highlighting the strength of the labor market- Refutation of information about large-scale sales of treasuries by non-residents (Scott Bessent)- Announcements of upcoming trade agreements with a number of countriesThe partial abolition of duties on high-tech products and the discussion of possible eases for the automotive industry have become factors supporting the stock market and the temporary weakening of the euro.Trade prospectsThe market faced a binary choice1. Mitigation scenario (cancellation of duties → growth of stocks → decrease in treasury yields → strengthening of the dollar)2. Escalation scenario (continued restrictions → continued EUR/USD rally)In the current conditions, it looks strategically justified- Building up long positions on EUR/USD with a confident breakout of the 1.1430 resistance- Short-term sales at the breakdown of 1.1290 support, but this tactic has a countertrend character and can result in losses even for experienced tradersThe situation requires increased flexibility in approaches, as the dynamics continue to be determined by political factors rather than fundamental economic indicators.

Dollar Index trading idea (DXY) on April 14, 2025ARTEM_DEEV During Monday's Asian session, the dollar index (DXY) continues to decline, and has already sunk to 99.50, the lowest value since April 2022. The third consecutive session of sales of the US currency reflects the growing distrust of investors, fueled by weak macroeconomic data from the United States and increased expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy.The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China is putting significant pressure on the dollar. Beijing's retaliatory measures, which increased duties on American goods from 84% to 125% in response to similar actions by Washington, have increased concerns about the global economic downturn. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that such protectionist policies could accelerate the onset of the next financial crisis.US economic indicators continue to show alarming signals:The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 points in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%;Annual growth in the producer price index (PPI) slowed to 2.7% in March from 3.2% in February;The consumer price index (CPI) decreased to 2.4% in annual terms.This dynamic, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressure while simultaneously worsening consumer sentiment, has revived market discussions about a possible early easing of the Fed's policy. At the same time, representatives of the regulator note that the trade war significantly complicates the decision-making process on interest rates.The market is currently estimating the probability of a 90 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of 2025. In the coming days, special attention will be focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – his comments may become a catalyst for further weakening of the dollar if the soft rhetoric persists.Trading recommendationWe are considering an exclusively "bearish" scenario and include a pending DXY sell order in the trading plan.Sell Stop 99.20 with a target (TP) of 96.00 and a protective order (S-L) at 100.50.