Today, investors are focused on the final publication of Eurozone inflation data for January. This report will allow us to assess in detail the factors that caused the price increase at the beginning of the year, among which there are probably temporary effects.
The Ifo Business Climate index in Germany for February is also expected to be published. It will be interesting to compare it with the PMI data released on Friday, which showed a slight increase in the composite index, mainly due to an improvement in the weakened industrial sector.
In the second half of the week, the market's attention will shift to February inflation data from Germany, Spain and Italy. There will also be reports on the dynamics of wages and credit growth in the eurozone.
In the United States, the Fed's main inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), is expected to be published on Friday. In addition, investors continue to monitor possible new tariff measures from the Donald Trump administration and geopolitical news.
Results of the week: German elections and macroeconomic indicators
The markets reacted positively to the results of the German elections, which led to the formation of a two-party majority between the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD). This will simplify the decision-making process compared to the previous government, which included three parties.
Against the backdrop of the election, the euro strengthened by 0.6% in the Asian session, while DAX futures rose by 1.1%. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU leader, is likely to become the new chancellor, as his party received 28.6% of the vote. The formation of a coalition may take from one to two months.
The election also increased the likelihood of a reform of budget constraints in Germany, allowing for increased borrowing. However, the impact on defense spending and support for Ukraine remains questionable: the extreme parties (AfD and Leftist) won 34.3% of the vote and may block some key initiatives requiring two-thirds of the votes in parliament.
Friday was full of February Business Activity Indices (PMI). In the Eurozone, the composite PMI turned out to be lower than expected (50.2 versus the forecast of 50.5), mainly due to a decrease in the service sector (50.7 versus the expected 51.5). The industrial sector, on the contrary, showed a slight improvement (47.3 versus 47.0).
In the UK, the picture was mixed: the manufacturing PMI turned out to be weaker than expected (46.4 versus 48.5), while the services sector exceeded expectations (51.1 versus 50.8). This left the composite index virtually unchanged (50.5). Retail sales data was also published: January growth was 1.2% year-on-year, which turned out to be higher than forecast (0.6%). However, the revised data for December was lowered, which smoothed out the effect of the positive surprise.
In the US, the PMI picture resembled the European one: the industrial index continued to grow (51.6 versus 51.5), but the service sector declined sharply (49.7 versus 53.0), reaching its lowest level since January 2023. The internal components of the report showed a decrease in inflationary pressure: the price index for services fell to its lowest level since May 2020, while employment declined in both sectors. At the same time, production price indices and the order-to-inventory ratio continued to grow. The overall report looks dovish in the context of the Fed's policy.
The geopolitical situation and financial markets
For the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the possibility of resigning in order to achieve Ukraine's membership in NATO or long-term peace. This statement was made against the background of the truce negotiations in which the United States is involved in Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Zelensky rejected the Trump administration's demand to provide the United States with a share of mining revenues in Ukraine.
In the stock markets, an attempt at growth gave way to a decline. Global indexes fell 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies down 2.9%. European stocks, on the contrary, showed growth (Stoxx 600 +0.5%), which indicates a noticeable superiority of the region. Investors actively shifted into defensive assets, buying bonds and the utility sector, while technology and industrial companies came under pressure. Volatility (VIX index) rose above 18, the highest since early February.
In the foreign exchange market, commodity currencies weakened, losing out to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar as market sentiment worsened towards the end of the week. The euro gained support against the background of the election results in Germany.
U.S. Treasury bond yields declined amid weak data and expectations that government spending cuts could slow the economy more than expected. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds has narrowed, falling below 200 bps again. In Germany, the CDU/CSU victory, expected to be confirmed by the election results, creates the prerequisites for a coalition with the SPD and potentially a third party.
Thus, the markets continue to search for a balance between economic data, political events and monetary policy expectations.