Today, investors are focused on the final publication of Eurozone inflation data for January. This report will allow us to assess in detail the factors that caused the price increase at the beginning of the year, among which there are probably temporary effects.
The Ifo Business Climate index in Germany for February is also expected to be published. It will be interesting to compare it with the PMI data released on Friday, which showed a slight increase in the composite index, mainly due to an improvement in the weakened industrial sector.
In the second half of the week, the market's attention will shift to February inflation data from Germany, Spain and Italy. There will also be reports on the dynamics of wages and credit growth in the eurozone.
In the United States, the Fed's main inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), is expected to be published on Friday. In addition, investors continue to monitor possible new tariff measures from the Donald Trump administration and geopolitical news.
Results of the week: German elections and macroeconomic indicators
The markets reacted positively to the results of the German elections, which led to the formation of a two-party majority between the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD). This will simplify the decision-making process compared to the previous government, which included three parties.
Against the backdrop of the election, the euro strengthened by 0.6% in the Asian session, while DAX futures rose by 1.1%. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU leader, is likely to become the new chancellor, as his party received 28.6% of the vote. The formation of a coalition may take from one to two months.
The election also increased the likelihood of a reform of budget constraints in Germany, allowing for increased borrowing. However, the impact on defense spending and support for Ukraine remains questionable: the extreme parties (AfD and Leftist) won 34.3% of the vote and may block some key initiatives requiring two-thirds of the votes in parliament.
Friday was full of February Business Activity Indices (PMI). In the Eurozone, the composite PMI turned out to be lower than expected (50.2 versus the forecast of 50.5), mainly due to a decrease in the service sector (50.7 versus the expected 51.5). The industrial sector, on the contrary, showed a slight improvement (47.3 versus 47.0).
In the UK, the picture was mixed: the manufacturing PMI turned out to be weaker than expected (46.4 versus 48.5), while the services sector exceeded expectations (51.1 versus 50.8). This left the composite index virtually unchanged (50.5). Retail sales data was also published: January growth was 1.2% year-on-year, which turned out to be higher than forecast (0.6%). However, the revised data for December was lowered, which smoothed out the effect of the positive surprise.
In the US, the PMI picture resembled the European one: the industrial index continued to grow (51.6 versus 51.5), but the service sector declined sharply (49.7 versus 53.0), reaching its lowest level since January 2023. The internal components of the report showed a decrease in inflationary pressure: the price index for services fell to its lowest level since May 2020, while employment declined in both sectors. At the same time, production price indices and the order-to-inventory ratio continued to grow. The overall report looks dovish in the context of the Fed's policy.
The geopolitical situation and financial markets
For the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the possibility of resigning in order to achieve Ukraine's membership in NATO or long-term peace. This statement was made against the background of the truce negotiations in which the United States is involved in Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Zelensky rejected the Trump administration's demand to provide the United States with a share of mining revenues in Ukraine.
In the stock markets, an attempt at growth gave way to a decline. Global indexes fell 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies down 2.9%. European stocks, on the contrary, showed growth (Stoxx 600 +0.5%), which indicates a noticeable superiority of the region. Investors actively shifted into defensive assets, buying bonds and the utility sector, while technology and industrial companies came under pressure. Volatility (VIX index) rose above 18, the highest since early February.
In the foreign exchange market, commodity currencies weakened, losing out to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar as market sentiment worsened towards the end of the week. The euro gained support against the background of the election results in Germany.
U.S. Treasury bond yields declined amid weak data and expectations that government spending cuts could slow the economy more than expected. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds has narrowed, falling below 200 bps again. In Germany, the CDU/CSU victory, expected to be confirmed by the election results, creates the prerequisites for a coalition with the SPD and potentially a third party.
Thus, the markets continue to search for a balance between economic data, political events and monetary policy expectations.
USD/CHF analysis on April 15, 2025The US currency is attempting a moderate recovery against the franc, starting from local lows around 0.8168. The appreciation is largely due to technical aspects, while the macroeconomic background remains generally stable and does not show significant changes.However, the general direction of the dollar is still determined by global factors, in particular, increased trade tensions, which can put significant pressure on the pace of global economic recovery. Washington has previously stepped up its protectionist policy by imposing duties on imports from most countries, ranging from a base level of 10% to a critical 50%. Later, a 90-day delay was introduced, during which the same conditions apply, but for some countries the restrictions have already entered into force. The situation is particularly acute in relation to China, where a maximum rate of 145% has been introduced for goods from it. Beijing immediately responded with mirror measures. Despite the targeted exceptions for certain categories of technological products, including microchips and smartphones, the US president stressed that duties would remain at about 20%, refuting rumors about their cancellation.Fundamental signals and economic indicators of SwitzerlandThe latest statistics from Switzerland turned out to be weaker than expected. The producer and import price index slowed to 0.1% in March, with a forecast of 0.2%, and went into negative territory in annual terms — minus 0.1%. In the near future, markets will monitor the publication of data on foreign trade for March, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. Most investors are confident of reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.40%.According to calculations by the KOF Institute for Economic Research, the Swiss economy may suffer significant losses due to the US tariffs at 31%. The rising cost of exports, especially in high–tech and pharmaceutical segments, threatens to reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, and with the expansion of sanctions on pharma, this range may be even higher. Analysts point out that the duration of the restrictions will be a key factor. The restructuring of production processes and logistics will require significant costs and is accompanied by increased uncertainty regarding the efficiency and reliability of new supply chains.Expectations for the US macroeconomicsInvestors are focusing on the March retail sales statistics, which will be published tomorrow. According to experts, the indicator may grow by 1.4% compared to the previous value of +0.2%. Also on the agenda is data on industrial production, which is expected to decline by 0.2% after an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. It is the readings of economic indicators that will become critically important for the further positioning of the dollar against the background of high uncertainty in global trade.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to expand in a downward direction, which indicates that there is potential for further decline. The MACD indicator retains a confident sales signal, as its histogram remains below the signal line. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone and is showing an upward reversal, which may indicate a potential rebound in the short term.Trading IdeasSales will be justified in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.8098 support level downwards with the nearest target at 0.8000. A protective stop is placed at 0.8150.If there is a reversal and consolidation above the level of 0.8200, this may be a signal to open long positions with a target at 0.8315. In this case, a stop loss at 0.8150 is also recommended. 
The pound is showing short-term strengthening against the dollar, testing the 1.3200 level amid mixed data on the UK labor market. Employment in February showed an increase from 144 thousand to 206 thousand, but wage growth (excluding bonuses) was below forecasts – 5.9% against the expected 6.0%. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, while the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased to 18.7 thousand in March (forecast – 30.3 thousand).Tomorrow, the market expects the publication of inflation data: analysts predict that the core consumer price index will remain at 3.5%, while the overall indicator may slow down from 2.8% to 2.7%.Additional support for the pound is provided by data on the housing market from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in April, asking prices for real estate increased by 1.4% month-on-month, reaching a record high of 377,182 thousand pounds. However, experts note that the current growth may slow down due to the end of tax incentives for low-cost real estate transactions. The impact of US trade policy on the British market remains uncertain, but a potential easing of the Bank of England's monetary policy may have a stimulating effect.Pressure factors on the dollarToday, investors' attention will be focused on data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (forecast: -12.4 points versus -20.0 points earlier), as well as on the Redbook retail sales index. March data on retail sales (forecast: +1.4% after +0.2%) and industrial production (forecast: -0.2% after +0.7%) are expected to be published tomorrow.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayThe daily chart of GBP/USD shows moderate growth with the expansion of the price range. The MACD indicator retains a bullish signal, while the stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates the risks of a short-term correction.Trading recommendations- Long positions: Breaking the 1.3250 level up opens the way to the 1.3340 target. The stop loss is 1.3200.- Short positions: A breakout of the 1.3150 support creates the prerequisites for a decline to 1.3050. The stop loss is 1.3200. 
Focus on Germany: ZEW Sentiment index and expectationsToday, the key event on the European macroeconomic agenda will be the publication of the ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany for March. According to the consensus forecast, the index value may drop significantly to 9.5 points, which is likely due to the ongoing turbulence in global trade and weak readings of economic indicators in the region. Recall that in February, the indicator of current economic conditions unexpectedly rose to 51.6 after a January jump from 26.0, ending a six-month downward trend. This time, the market expects only a slight improvement in the current estimate, to -86.8 from -87.6 last month.Sweden's spring budget: no market effectIn Sweden, the spring revision of the state budget will be presented at 8:00 Central European time. The main parameters of the project are already known: the volume of reforms is 11.5 billion crowns, while the central initiative will be the extension of tax benefits for housing repairs. Earlier in March, the government announced plans for a long-term increase in defense spending, but the final targets for them will be formed only in June, after the NATO summit, and they will not be included in the current budget version. For this reason, the impact of the document on financial markets will be minimal.United Kingdom: labor market dataAt 8:00 a.m., the UK will publish the employment report for February-March. Although this event traditionally has an impact on the pound, the current market agenda is focused on trade conflicts and interest rate policy, so the reaction to the publication may be limited.Overall market picture: cautious optimism amid tariff uncertaintyThe main attention of market participants remains focused on the escalation of tariff disputes. In the United States, Fed member Christopher Waller made a mild comment, noting that in the face of a significant slowdown in the economy due to high tariffs, he would support an earlier and large-scale rate cut. His words are especially important, given that Waller often reflects a consensus opinion within the FOMC.In China, exports increased by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding expectations (4.4%). However, given the upcoming tariff policy changes, these data are temporary. In April, we can expect a sharp decline in shipments, especially towards the United States. Against this background, the global trade picture remains uncertain.Financial markets: cautious recovery in risk appetiteStocks on global markets showed growth on Monday amid hopes that the peak of the tariff war may have already passed. European securities outperformed American ones, and defensive sectors outperformed cyclical ones in terms of profitability for the third day in a row – a clear signal that investors are becoming more selective and are beginning to take into account structural risks.On Wall Street, all key indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 gained 0.8% each, the Nasdaq 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 1.1%. Positive sentiment prevailed in Asia on Tuesday, with European futures also showing growth.Dollar, Euro and yields: EUR/USD recoveryAfter falling to the level of 1.1300, the EUR/USD currency pair regained momentum amid easing concerns about the recession in the United States and signs of flexibility in the tariff policy of the White House. The Norwegian krone and the British pound also showed growth following the stock indexes. In Europe, yields on two-year swaps dropped below 2%, reflecting a general shift towards a soft policy. US government bond yields also declined, partly due to Waller's comments, which focused on the possible reaction of the Fed in the event of a slowdown in the labor market.Today, special attention will be paid to the "tax day" in the United States – the date when the maximum inflow of funds to the budget traditionally occurs, which can affect the short-term liquidity and dynamics of treasury securities. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025The transformation of the international trading system initiated by the Trump administration has led to unexpected consequences that go beyond the initial forecasts.The US dollar, traditionally considered a safe haven for investors, has suddenly turned into an asset with increased volatility. Its dynamics now show a paradoxical correlation with the stock market, strengthening against the backdrop of the growth of the S&P 500 and the decline in Treasury yields.Paradigm shift: the search for alternativesPolitical instability and the inconsistency of US trade policy have forced investors to look for a replacement for the dollar. Along with the classic defensive assets - the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and gold - the euro has gained unexpected popularity. The situation on the government debt market has become particularly significant: massive sales of treasuries have given rise to speculation about a possible reduction in Chinese reserves (amounting to $760 billion), which has led to a flow of capital into German bunds. This process has become a catalyst for the strengthening of the euro to the highs of three years ago.Paradoxical relationshipsThe most surprising phenomenon was the direct relationship between the dynamics of the S&P 500 and the dollar exchange rate, which indicates a fundamental change in the perception of the US currency - it turned from an "asset of pessimists" into an "instrument of optimists."Narrative controlThe US administration demonstrates a clear understanding of market fears and is actively trying to neutralize them:- Denial of recession risks (Kevin Hassett)- Highlighting the strength of the labor market- Refutation of information about large-scale sales of treasuries by non-residents (Scott Bessent)- Announcements of upcoming trade agreements with a number of countriesThe partial abolition of duties on high-tech products and the discussion of possible eases for the automotive industry have become factors supporting the stock market and the temporary weakening of the euro.Trade prospectsThe market faced a binary choice1. Mitigation scenario (cancellation of duties → growth of stocks → decrease in treasury yields → strengthening of the dollar)2. Escalation scenario (continued restrictions → continued EUR/USD rally)In the current conditions, it looks strategically justified- Building up long positions on EUR/USD with a confident breakout of the 1.1430 resistance- Short-term sales at the breakdown of 1.1290 support, but this tactic has a countertrend character and can result in losses even for experienced tradersThe situation requires increased flexibility in approaches, as the dynamics continue to be determined by political factors rather than fundamental economic indicators. 
Dollar Index trading idea (DXY) on April 14, 2025ARTEM_DEEV During Monday's Asian session, the dollar index (DXY) continues to decline, and has already sunk to 99.50, the lowest value since April 2022. The third consecutive session of sales of the US currency reflects the growing distrust of investors, fueled by weak macroeconomic data from the United States and increased expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy.The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China is putting significant pressure on the dollar. Beijing's retaliatory measures, which increased duties on American goods from 84% to 125% in response to similar actions by Washington, have increased concerns about the global economic downturn. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that such protectionist policies could accelerate the onset of the next financial crisis.US economic indicators continue to show alarming signals:The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 points in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%;Annual growth in the producer price index (PPI) slowed to 2.7% in March from 3.2% in February;The consumer price index (CPI) decreased to 2.4% in annual terms.This dynamic, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressure while simultaneously worsening consumer sentiment, has revived market discussions about a possible early easing of the Fed's policy. At the same time, representatives of the regulator note that the trade war significantly complicates the decision-making process on interest rates.The market is currently estimating the probability of a 90 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of 2025. In the coming days, special attention will be focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – his comments may become a catalyst for further weakening of the dollar if the soft rhetoric persists.Trading recommendationWe are considering an exclusively "bearish" scenario and include a pending DXY sell order in the trading plan.Sell Stop 99.20 with a target (TP) of 96.00 and a protective order (S-L) at 100.50. 
AUD/USD is showing a moderate correction around 0.6293, while maintaining an overall uptrend. The move comes amid a partial softening of the US administration's rhetoric on trade duties, although the base rate of 10% remains in effect for most US trading partners, with the exception of China, for which tariffs have been sharply increased to 145%. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao criticized this policy, noting its destabilizing effect on the global economy and calling for resistance to "unilateral protectionist measures."The Australian currency was supported by positive business activity data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In February, total turnover increased to 0.7% from the previous 0.6%, although growth was observed in only six of the thirteen industries. The largest growth was demonstrated by the manufacturing industry (+4.6%), the transport sector (+2.4%) and media communications (+2.2%). At the same time, the extractive industry decreased by 2.5%, and the segment of art and recreation - by 2.7%. In annual terms, the manufacturing industry shows impressive growth of 14.2%, while the extractive sector lost 6.3%.The US dollar index sank to 99.40. Last week, the currency came under pressure due to the escalation of trade conflicts, despite the temporary lifting of duties for most countries. New restrictions on semiconductor exports announced by the Trump administration have added to the uncertainty, although promises of exemptions for individual companies have somewhat mitigated the negative effect.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayFrom a technical point of view, AUD/USD continues to move in the ascending channel of 0.6250-0.6490. The indicators show a weakening of bearish signals: the fast moving averages on the Alligator are turning up, and the AO oscillator on the chart is forming several ascending bars in the negative zone.Trading recommendations- For buyers: we should wait for the pair to consolidate above 0.6340. The nearest target will be 0.6530. We put the stop loss at 0.6300- For sellers: entry is advisable when breaking down 0.6260 with a target of 0.6035 and a stop loss at 0.6310 
Escalation of the tariff war: the US and China continue their confrontationFinancial markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as investors closely monitor further actions by US President Donald Trump as part of the ongoing tariff confrontation. At the moment, most countries face a 10% duty on a wide range of exported goods, as well as a 25% tariff on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and products from Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, is in the worst position, facing a record 145% interest rate.The markets have already partially priced in further escalation, but the current measures from the United States represent an actual tightening of fiscal policy, which increases the likelihood of a recession. On the other hand, China is expected to take stimulating steps, possibly lowering the benchmark interest rate after Easter. At the same time, a devaluation of the yuan is unlikely, since Beijing prefers to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.Eurozone: inflation is losing priority, the focus is on slowing growthOn Wednesday, the publication of the final data on inflation in the eurozone for March is expected. The consensus forecast assumes confirmation of the preliminary values, and the market is likely not to react to the release. Investors' attention has already shifted from the inflationary agenda to economic growth prospects and trade risks.On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The accompanying statement is likely to repeat the phrase that monetary policy is becoming "less restrictive." The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, is likely to focus on the deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook, but there will be no direct hints on the next steps on rates.Current events: signals from the USA and AsiaThe US president has announced new tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week. In parallel, an investigation has been launched into national security issues in the semiconductor sector. At the same time, Trump stated the need for "flexibility" in trade issues. On the other hand, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping began his first foreign trip this year, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The visit underscores Beijing's desire to strengthen regional ties and forge a multipolar order.Over the weekend, the United States excluded a number of high—tech goods from retaliatory tariffs - smartphones, chip manufacturing equipment and some computers. This provided short-term relief for the American IT sector. However, as noted by Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick, these goods may still be subject to future tariffs on semiconductors expected before May.Macroeconomic data: alarming signals from the United StatesA preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for April revealed a sharp deterioration in indicators. The index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, while expectations and current estimates also declined more than expected. At the same time, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.7%, which increases concerns about lost price control.Producer prices in March, on the contrary, showed a decrease — the PPI index dropped to 2.7% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than expected. This indicates that manufacturers did not have time to shift potential tariff costs to the final price in anticipation of new duties.Regional inflation: Swedish stabilityIn Sweden, the final March inflation data coincided with estimates: CPI at 0.5% YoY, CPIF at 2.3% YoY. Food inflation accelerated, while other components, including clothing, transportation, and housing, showed declines. Thus, inflation remains below the Riksbank's target level for the eighth month in a row, which supports the regulator's cautious position.Stock markets: optimism with caveatsUS stock markets ended Friday on a positive note — the S&P 500 index gained 1.8%, playing off the news about the exclusion of IT products from tariffs. Apple shares have become the engine of growth. European markets lagged behind in dynamics, but futures indicate a possible increase at the opening. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year, European stocks have been outperforming American stocks in terms of profitability.Bond and currency markets: dollar under pressure, U.S. yields risingThe EUR/USD pair briefly dropped below 1.13 on Friday, as the weakening of tariff threats supported the dollar. However, overall confidence in American assets remains in question. The yield gap between the US and Europe has become noticeably wider: the yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 50 bps to 4.5%, while German securities remained virtually unchanged (2.55%). Scandinavian currencies remain vulnerable amid global capital flows and high uncertainty.ResultsMarkets continue to balance between the hope of stabilizing trade relations and the reality of increased global risks. Further steps by the United States on tariffs, China's reaction, and central bank policies will determine market movements in the coming weeks. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 14, 2025The US dollar may get a chance to recover only if the White House abandons the policy of trade wars and protectionism, which continues to put pressure on the US economy. However, current trends indicate the opposite – the cooling of economic activity and the growing distrust of American assets form a stable negative background for the USD. This is not a short-term correction, but a deep structural adjustment that could lead EUR/USD to the 1.30 level by 2026.Given the tough stance of Donald Trump, who continues to pursue a review of global trade rules, the dollar remains in a vulnerable position. Consensus forecasts for US GDP growth for 2025 have already been revised downwards: while in January, Wall Street Journal analysts expected an increase of 2%, by April the estimate had fallen to 0.9%. At the same time, the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has increased from 22% to 45%, which increases investors' pessimism.Range of opinions: from recession to moderate growthForecasts of economic indicators range from a 2% reduction in GDP to a 3.1% increase. Pessimists point to a deterioration in consumer sentiment and the already tangible effects of tariffs on supply chains. Optimists, on the contrary, believe that the US administration's trade policy is tactical in nature and may soon be softened.However, such expectations look naive against the background of constant changes in the rhetoric of the White House. Trump alternately declares the tariffs unchanged, then temporarily suspends them, and then threatens new duties if there is no progress in negotiations. A striking example is the recent exemption from tariffs on electronics for $390 billion (including $100 billion of Chinese imports), which was soon called into question due to plans to introduce "special fees."Investors are losing confidenceThis inconsistency undermines confidence in American assets. For the first time in five years, demand for hedging dollar purchases has exceeded interest in insuring its sales, reaching highs since the pandemic period.The situation is aggravated by inflationary risks: According to estimates by the Wall Street Journal, price growth in 2025 may accelerate to 3.6% (versus 2.7% in January), which will limit the Fed's ability to ease policy. Although inflation is likely to slow to 2.6% by 2026, the short-term effects on the economy will be negative.Trading recommendationsIn the current conditions, the upward trend in EUR/USD looks stable. Corrections against the background of temporary positive news (for example, rumors about tariff easing or ECB rate cuts) should be considered as an opportunity to form and increase long positions with targets at the levels of 1.16 and 1.195.