USD/CHF analysis on April 15, 2025
The US currency is attempting a moderate recovery against the franc, starting from local lows around 0.8168. The appreciation is largely due to technical aspects, while the macroeconomic background remains generally stable and does not show significant changes.
However, the general direction of the dollar is still determined by global factors, in particular, increased trade tensions, which can put significant pressure on the pace of global economic recovery. Washington has previously stepped up its protectionist policy by imposing duties on imports from most countries, ranging from a base level of 10% to a critical 50%. Later, a 90-day delay was introduced, during which the same conditions apply, but for some countries the restrictions have already entered into force. The situation is particularly acute in relation to China, where a maximum rate of 145% has been introduced for goods from it. Beijing immediately responded with mirror measures. Despite the targeted exceptions for certain categories of technological products, including microchips and smartphones, the US president stressed that duties would remain at about 20%, refuting rumors about their cancellation.
Fundamental signals and economic indicators of Switzerland
The latest statistics from Switzerland turned out to be weaker than expected. The producer and import price index slowed to 0.1% in March, with a forecast of 0.2%, and went into negative territory in annual terms — minus 0.1%. In the near future, markets will monitor the publication of data on foreign trade for March, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. Most investors are confident of reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.40%.
According to calculations by the KOF Institute for Economic Research, the Swiss economy may suffer significant losses due to the US tariffs at 31%. The rising cost of exports, especially in high–tech and pharmaceutical segments, threatens to reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%, and with the expansion of sanctions on pharma, this range may be even higher. Analysts point out that the duration of the restrictions will be a key factor. The restructuring of production processes and logistics will require significant costs and is accompanied by increased uncertainty regarding the efficiency and reliability of new supply chains.
Expectations for the US macroeconomics
Investors are focusing on the March retail sales statistics, which will be published tomorrow. According to experts, the indicator may grow by 1.4% compared to the previous value of +0.2%. Also on the agenda is data on industrial production, which is expected to decline by 0.2% after an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. It is the readings of economic indicators that will become critically important for the further positioning of the dollar against the background of high uncertainty in global trade.
USD/CHF technical analysis for today
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to expand in a downward direction, which indicates that there is potential for further decline. The MACD indicator retains a confident sales signal, as its histogram remains below the signal line. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone and is showing an upward reversal, which may indicate a potential rebound in the short term.
Trading Ideas
Sales will be justified in case of a confident breakdown of the 0.8098 support level downwards with the nearest target at 0.8000. A protective stop is placed at 0.8150.
If there is a reversal and consolidation above the level of 0.8200, this may be a signal to open long positions with a target at 0.8315. In this case, a stop loss at 0.8150 is also recommended.
In Thursday's Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair is showing a moderate correction, trading near the 1.3285 mark, after steady growth since the beginning of the month. The decline in quotations is due to weak UK macroeconomic statistics published the day before.The latest data on business activity indices in the UK for April turned out to be worse than market expectations. The indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector decreased from 44.9 to 44.0 points, reaching the lowest level in the last few years. For the first time since the beginning of the year, the services sector went below the growth level, dropping from 52.5 to 48.9 points, while the composite index fell to 48.2 points. Given this dynamic, which is related, among other things, to the effect of the trade tariffs imposed by the United States, market participants are anticipating the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England at the next meeting.An additional factor of uncertainty was the negotiations between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. According to Bloomberg, London is counting on an agreement that will provide an easing of some tariffs, in particular in agriculture, and a reduction in the tax on digital services.US currency: moderate correction after volatilityThe dollar index (USDX) adjusted to the level of 99.40 against the background of a multidirectional fundamental picture, retreating from local highs. Despite this, the real estate sector in the United States continues to show signs of recovery: the number of building permits increased from 1,459 to 1,467 million in March, and new home sales jumped to 724 thousand, reaching their highest since September, indicating an increase in consumer demand in this segment.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayOn the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is trading below the upper limit of the ascending channel, which runs in the range of 1.3350–1.2900. Distribution accumulation indicators indicate a possible weakening of the upward momentum.The EMA of the alligator indicator is approaching the signal line, and the Awesome Oscillator histogram shows a series of decreasing bars, but remains in the positive zone.Trading recommendationsWe are considering sales with a steady decline and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3220 with benchmarks in the area of 1.3000. We plan to place the stop loss at 1.3300.To form long positions, it is worth waiting for the growth and consolidation of quotes above 1.3330 with the potential to move to 1.3520. It is advisable to set the stop loss at 1.3250. 
Germany: Ifo Index and expectationsToday, the key indicator in the eurozone will be the publication of the German Ifo index, which investors are carefully comparing with yesterday's PMI data. Of particular interest is the component of expectations present in the Ifo and absent in the PMI, as it is able to better reflect the impact of trade conflicts, in particular, between the United States and China.USA: moderately positive signals and political noiseDespite weak regional reports from the Fed, the index of business activity in the US industry unexpectedly rose to 50.7, surpassing expectations of 49.1. At the same time, the services sector weakened to 51.4, but remained above the threshold of stagnation. The composite index decreased from 53.5 to 51.2, which still indicates moderate growth. The weakening of export orders in both sectors was offset by steady domestic demand: new orders increased in industry, while they decreased slightly in the service sector.However, against the background of macroeconomic statistics, the political factor has become more active again. There were reports that it was the ministers of finance and trade, Bessent and Latnik, who dissuaded the president from firing Fed Chairman Powell. Bessent also commented on the situation regarding trade negotiations with China, saying that a full-fledged agreement may take 2-3 years, and the resumption of dialogue is impossible without reducing tariffs, which now reach 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on American goods. The possibility of tariff cuts of up to 50% is being discussed on the sidelines, but the White House has not yet confirmed these rumors. This news caused cautious optimism and increased the probability of a deal with China to 38% from 34% previously.An additional boost to the market was given by information from the Financial Times, according to which the US administration may consider the possibility of partially exempting automakers from import duties after appropriate lobbying efforts by the industry.Eurozone: weakness in the service sectorThe combined eurozone business activity index fell to 50.1 in April, while the drop in the services sector to 49.7 was unexpected. On the contrary, the manufacturing PMI showed positive dynamics, exceeding forecasts and reaching 48.7. Despite this, pressure on the ECB towards additional easing remains, especially since the price components also indicate a weakening of the inflationary pressure. The employment rate in the service sector, however, remains positive at 50.8, which mitigates the negative effect of the decline in the overall index.The update of the ECB wage index also indicates a slowdown in wage growth in 2025, which strengthens the case for lower rates. According to current expectations, the deposit rate may be lowered to 1.5% by September 2025.UK: alarming signs of stagflationThe PMI figures for April in the UK turned out to be worse than expected across the board. The composite index fell to 48.2, signaling a reduction in business activity. The indices for services and production were 48.9 and 44.0, respectively. At the same time, there is an increase in both incoming and outgoing prices, and employment continues to decline. This combination indicates the risk of a stagflationary scenario, which significantly complicates the task of the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy.Energy market: uncertainty over OPEC+ quotasOil prices fell by 2% after reports that several OPEC+ countries called for an additional increase in production in June, similar to the decision taken in May. Kazakhstan, in turn, stated that it was not ready to compensate for the excess production of the previous period with cuts. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 5 to discuss the future quota. Due to continued pressure on prices in the second quarter, the average Brent price is expected to be around $70 per barrel, with a subsequent recovery to $85 in the fourth quarter.Stock markets: rising amid political optimismBuyers prevailed on stock markets, despite contradictory macro data. Cyclical sectors led the way, both in the USA and in Europe. The market continues to live under the influence of paradoxes: rising bond yields, a strengthening dollar, and a simultaneous rally in risky assets. The profitable reports of the companies also added to the positive. Indices in the USA ended the day with growth: Dow +1,1%, S&P 500 +1,7%, Nasdaq +2,5%, Russell 2000 +1,5%. However, Asia has been showing a decline since this morning, and futures for the United States and Europe also point to a correction amid cooling political optimism.Bonds and the foreign exchange market: caution returnsWhile Finance Minister Bessant acknowledged the excesses of the current tariffs on Chinese goods, he emphasized the strategic task of redefining U.S. global economic relations. His speech cooled the euphoria of the markets: the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rebounded from daily lows and reached 4.39%, indicating an increase in expectations for inflation and interest rates. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 24, 2025It seems that the stock market reaction has forced the US administration to soften its position. The sharp drop in the S&P 500 after the introduction of new tariffs on Independence Day and criticism of the Fed forced Donald Trump to publicly deny rumors about the possible dismissal of Jerome Powell. This episode clearly demonstrates how sensitive the White House is to market signals.The recent pullback of the main currency pair was caused not so much by macroeconomic data from Europe as by market insiders about a possible easing of US trade policy towards China. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is considering the possibility of reducing duties from the current 145% to 50-66%, as well as introducing a differentiated approach to various categories of goods.Although officials later denied these reports, the market has already reacted with the growth of the S&P 500 and the strengthening of the dollar. The historical precedent of a 90-day tariff deferral suggests that such leaks often anticipate real political decisions.European rhetoric and the problems of the dollarStatements by European officials about the secondary role of the euro against the dollar, as well as comments by the head of the Bundesbank on the importance of the treasury market for the global financial system, contributed to the short-term weakening of the single currency. However, such statements were probably dictated by tactical considerations on the eve of negotiations with Washington.The US administration's attempts to "fix" trade imbalances through tariff policy create a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, Washington declares assistance to China in rebalancing the economy (according to Finance Minister Bessent), on the other, such a policy undermines confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency.EUR/USD trade prospectsDespite the current correction, structural factors as well as trend indicators continue to support the pair's growth potential. A rebound from key support levels in the area of 1.1285, 1.1240 and 1.1180 can be considered as an opportunity to enter long positions.ConclusionWhile short-term political maneuvers cause increased volatility, long-term structural changes in the global trading system continue to put pressure on the position of the US dollar. The current EUR/USD correction is likely to be temporary before the resumption of the main uptrend. 
The GBP/USD pair continues to show a downward trend, testing the support level around 1.3300. The corrective movement of the pound is due to both technical factors — the overbought British currency in recent weeks — and the continuing uncertainty around the Fed's monetary policy.Donald Trump's rhetoric against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remains in the focus of the markets' attention. Although the US president has denied rumors about the possible removal of the Fed chairman, his criticism of the central bank continues to create volatility. Trump insists on easing monetary policy, arguing that current interest rates are holding back economic growth. At the same time, he expressed moderate optimism about the prospects for trade negotiations with China, which temporarily supported market sentiment.Today, market participants will evaluate the latest data on business activity in the UK and the USA:- In the UK, PMI indices in the manufacturing and service sectors are forecast to decline, which may increase pressure on the pound.- In the United States, indicators are also expected to deteriorate, which limits the dollar's growth potential.Special attention will be paid to the speech by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who can give signals on the further steps of the regulator in the context of a slowing economy.The publication of City AM shows an increase in the number of bankruptcies of British companies — 25% more than in the same period last year. Economic difficulties, including high costs and declining consumer activity, continue to weigh on businesses. The revision of the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% further highlights the fragility of the recovery.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for today- The Bollinger Band indicator indicates the expansion of the price range, while maintaining the potential for growth.- The MACD indicator is showing signs of a downward reversal, forming a bearish signal.- Stochastic has moved out of the overbought zone, confirming the corrective scenario.Trading Recommendations- Short positions: at the breakdown of 1.3250 with a target of 1.3150 (stop loss of 1.3300).- Long positions: rebound from 1.3300 and rise above 1.3340 with a target of 1.3450 (stop loss of 1.3290). 
Key events of the dayToday, the markets' attention is focused on the preliminary business activity indices (PMI) for April in the eurozone, the United States and the United Kingdom. These data will be the first indicator of the impact of uncertainty related to trade tariffs. In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 48.2 from the previous level of 48.6, due to a drop in new orders from the United States. At the same time, the index in the service sector is likely to remain stable at around 51.0. Despite the fact that the PMI is usually less sensitive to sentiment, the risks of a negative effect still remain.In the United States, a similar dynamic is expected: a decline in industrial activity against the backdrop of gloomy data from the Philadelphia Fed index published last week. The service sector is expected to hold its position unless increased uncertainty begins to put pressure on consumption. However, March retail sales showed resilience, which reduces risks.Economic developments in AsiaIn Japan, the April PMIs showed mixed results. The manufacturing index continued to decline for the tenth month in a row, dropping to 48.5, partly due to concerns about U.S. tariffs. The service sector, on the contrary, grew to 52.2, driven by increased customer demand and the largest increase in sales over the past three months. Pressure on prices has increased: companies are recording the fastest cost growth in two years, leading to higher product prices. The composite index returned to the expansion zone, rising to 51.1 from 48.9 in March.Economic developments in the USAThe index of manufacturing activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond deteriorated in April to -13 from -4 in March. The shipment component decreased to -17, which, together with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, signals a clear deterioration in the industrial situation. The effect of pre-accumulation of orders in the first quarter is being replaced by a slowdown due to increasing uncertainty.In the political arena, President Trump has eased pressure on the Fed, saying there are no plans to fire Jerome Powell. This led to a decrease in the probability of his resignation in the markets from 21% to 13%, supporting a positive mood among investors, strengthening the dollar and sending gold into a downward correction. Prior to Trump's statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant also described the trade war with China as "unsustainable," which gave an additional boost to asset growth. At the same time, Trump expressed cautious optimism about the deal with China, noting that tariffs would eventually be "significantly lower" but not reduced to zero.Events in EuropeIn the eurozone, the consumer confidence index dropped to -16.7 in April, which is the lowest level since November 2023. The decline is mainly due to the effects of the trade war and falling stock markets. So far, this deterioration has not been reflected in real data — retail sales in the United States in March, as well as transaction data in Denmark, remain strong. Thus, the decrease in confidence so far looks more like an emotional reaction to external factors.According to the quarterly survey of the European Central Bank among professional forecasters, inflation expectations have slightly increased, and economic growth forecasts have been slightly revised downwards. However, the changes turned out to be insignificant, indicating moderate expectations of further consequences of the trade war. The next round of forecasts may be less optimistic due to the escalation of tariff conflicts between the United States and China in April.International trade and macroeconomicsTrade disputes remain in the spotlight: The International Monetary Fund has revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2025, noting particularly significant declines for the United States and China. The main threats are the further escalation of trade wars and the tightening of financial conditions.The situation in SwedenAn unexpected improvement was recorded in the Swedish labor market: the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in March from 8.9% in February. At the same time, employment growth was higher than expected, and the increase in the workforce was in line with forecasts. However, risks of deterioration remain in the event of escalating tariff conflicts and turbulence in the stock markets.Geopolitical newsProgress has been made in relations between Russia and Ukraine. According to media reports, Russia offered to stop the offensive on the current front lines, and Ukraine expressed its readiness for negotiations after the establishment of a ceasefire.The raw materials marketOil prices have strengthened amid the introduction of new US sanctions against Iranian oil exports, as well as due to improved market sentiment following the softening of US rhetoric towards China. A barrel of Brent costs about $68 in the morning.Stock marketsGlobal stock markets showed solid growth, offsetting the drop at the beginning of the week. Cyclical stocks outpaced defensive sectors in growth. Bond yields declined, and the dollar strengthened. Major US indexes closed in positive territory: Dow +2.7%, S&P 500 +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.7% and Russell 2000 +2.7%. The positive mood remains for the morning in Asia, as well as on European and American futures.Debt market and foreign exchange marketThe weakening of Trump's rhetoric towards the Fed chairman and trade negotiations with China contributed to the relief in financial markets. Today's PMI releases will be an important indicator of the current state of the global economy and will play a key role in further decisions by central banks. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 23, 2025In recent days, there has been a turning point in the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, which is due to a change in the rhetoric of the American administration. After a period of aggressive criticism of the Fed and tightening of trade restrictions, the White House seems to have realized the risks of excesses. The threat of firing Jerome Powell, which could undermine confidence in the Fed and the dollar, is gradually fading. This was one of the factors that allowed the dollar to recover from its recent decline.Although pressure on the Fed from the administration remains, radical steps threatening the regulator's independence are now unlikely. Trump still insists on cutting rates, but markets perceive this as part of the standard political discourse, and not as a signal for immediate action.Prospects for US trade policyCredit Agricole analysts suggest that Washington will ease the tariff regime, which may support the stock market (S&P 500) and reduce pressure on the dollar. However, it is not worth waiting for the complete abolition of duties — their level is likely to remain elevated, which will continue to negatively affect export-oriented economies, including the eurozone.Statements by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about a possible de-escalation of the trade conflict with China also contribute to restoring risk appetite and strengthening the dollar.Macroeconomic factorsLowering the IMF's global GDP forecast to 2.8% creates additional pressure on pro-cyclical currencies, including the euro. At the same time, the absence of signs of recession in the United States (according to IMF estimates) may temporarily support the dollar.However, the Institute of International Finance predicts a decline in US GDP in the third and fourth quarters, which in the future may weaken the greenback's position again.Technical picture and trading levelsDespite the strengthening of the bear strength indicator, the current EUR/USD correction may enter a consolidation phase. Moreover, a breakdown of the 1.1425 level will open the way for the resumption of purchases with targets in the 1.16 area. Otherwise, the pair may continue to roll back towards the 1.13–1.12 support. 
Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around 11. 
FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 22, 2025Financial markets are faced with a paradox: the slogan "America first" has turned into a flight of capital from the United States in practice.Investors, who initially focused on the protectionist rhetoric of the administration, are now hastily reducing interest in American assets, considering them toxic.This led to a sharp weakening of the dollar — the USD index has declined by 7% since the beginning of the year, and the EUR/USD pair is showing steady growth.According to Apollo Management, non-residents own a significant share of American assets.:- Shares worth $19 trillion.- Treasury bonds (treasuries) worth $7 trillion.- Up to 30% of US corporate debt.A massive withdrawal of these funds can provoke serious volatility, especially against the background of the growing profitability of treasuries. Contrary to the classical correlation, the dollar does not receive support from rising rates — investors see risks in Washington's economic policy itself.The conflict between Trump and the FedThe US president is actively criticizing Jerome Powell, accusing him of a delayed reaction to inflation and political bias. Demands to lower the federal funds rate are being made against the backdrop of slowing inflation, but the new tariffs from the White House may again accelerate price increases (PCE).The historical parallel with the 1970s raises concerns: then the Fed's subordination to political pressure led to a double-dip recession. Today, the independence of the regulator is a key element of confidence in the dollar, and its erosion only accelerates capital outflow.EUR/USD prospectsThe current dynamics of the pair indicates a continuation of the uptrend. The first target for buyers is the 1.16 level, with the prospect of moving towards 1.1950. The pressure on the dollar remains, and the formation of long positions from pullbacks and corrections remains an urgent forex trading strategy.Key factors for monitoring:- Further escalation of trade restrictions.- The Fed's reaction to political pressure.- Dynamics of capital outflow from American assets.Markets are entering a period of heightened uncertainty, where political decisions may be stronger than economic fundamentals.