This week, the focus will be on negotiations on Germany's fiscal package. The package is expected to be approved by the Bundestag on Tuesday and by the Bundesrat on Friday. It is expected that the vote will be successful, but there is a possibility of disagreement between individual representatives of the CSU/CDU, as well as possible opposition from the Free Voters of Bavaria party.
In the United States, President Donald Trump announced upcoming talks with Russian President Putin on Tuesday/The purpose of the upcoming dialogue is to find ways to end the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, data from the United States on retail sales for February will be published. Investors are closely watching to see if the recent decline in consumer confidence will have an impact on retail sales.
The Fed meeting will be held on Wednesday. The Central Bank is expected to keep the interest rate at the current level. Attention will be focused on Jerome Powell's comments on the prospects for easing policy, the possible end of the quantitative tightening program (QT), and economic growth forecasts. On Thursday, the Bank of England is likely to keep the rate at 4.50%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may cut the rate by 25 bps to 0.25% amid low inflation expectations.
Key economic events
Germany: approval of the fiscal package
In Germany, the new ruling coalition has reached an agreement with the Greens on easing the Schuldenbrem budget rule and setting up an infrastructure fund. In general, the agreement corresponds to the original draft. Key concessions to the Greens include allocating 100 billion euros out of a total of 500 billion euros for environmental projects. The mechanism for excluding military spending in excess of 1% of GDP from the budget rule has also been retained, and now it includes assistance to Ukraine. The regional authorities also agreed to ease the "black zero" policy.
The Eurozone: inflation indicators
The final inflation data in Germany, France and Spain did not bring significant surprises. While France and Spain confirmed their preliminary estimates, German inflation was revised down to 2.6% YoY from 2.8% previously. This factor will affect the overall inflation rate of the eurozone, taking into account the weight of Germany in the calculation of the index (28%).
USA: Consumer sentiment
The University of Michigan recorded a significant decrease in the consumer confidence index caused by increased inflation concerns. According to preliminary data for March, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 4.9% from 4.3% in February. The assessment of the current situation decreased to 63.5 from 65.7 previously, and the expectations index dropped to 54.2 from 64.0. The further impact on consumption will become clear after the publication of retail sales data for February.
Sweden: labor market and fiscal policy
Data for February showed employment growth of 0.2%, while the unemployment rate dropped to 8.9%. However, this decrease is due to a decrease in the share of the economically active population and an increase in the number of disappointed workers. The decrease in the number of temporary workers indicates a weak labor market in the next 6-9 months, with a possible recovery only by the end of the year. The ruling Moderati party has announced its intention to add 11.5 billion crowns to the spring budget package, part of which will go to defense. The final amount of defense spending is likely to be determined at the NATO summit in June.
Dynamic of financial markets
Stock markets
In the absence of new threats of trade tariffs, stock markets showed growth on Friday. The Nasdaq rose 2.6%, the Russell 2000 rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 rose 2.1%, and the Dow rose 1.7%. Investors actively bought up previously affected sectors – technology, energy, banks and consumer goods. A similar trend was observed in Europe: the Stoxx 600 index gained 1.1%, while shares of banks, technology and industrial companies led the way. However, despite the growth, the overall dynamics remains weak: this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the United States, and the second for Europe.
Currency and debt markets
The Swedish and Norwegian crowns, as well as the euro, strengthened against the US dollar and the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market. The EUR/USD pair approached the level of 1.09, and EUR/SEK dropped to 11.00. The yield on US 10-year bonds remained at 4.30%, while German 10-year securities remained at about 2.90%.
Conclusions
This week, the key events will be the vote on the German fiscal package, negotiations between the United States and Russia, as well as decisions by central banks. The dynamics of stock markets remains unstable, while rising inflation expectations in the United States may affect the Fed's future policy. Investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators, assessing the risks to the global economy and financial markets.
Inflation data and economic activity in the USAThis week, the February report on the Personal consumer Spending Index (PCE), which is the preferred indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System (FRS), will be published in the United States. In addition, the revised consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for March is expected to be released. Although revised data rarely have a significant impact on markets, in conditions of political uncertainty, it is worth paying increased attention to them.Inflation in the eurozone: expectations of a decline in indicatorsIn the eurozone, investors' attention will be focused on the March inflation data in Spain and France, the publication of which precedes the pan-European HICP index, which will be released next week. Inflation in the euro area is projected to decrease from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, due to easing price pressures on energy and services. Core inflation is also expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.4%.Sweden: wage negotiations and retail salesNegotiations on a new wage agreement are continuing in Sweden, which is expected to be concluded by March 31. The latest proposal suggests a three-year agreement with a 7.7% salary increase, which is lower than expected. This may indicate possible downside risks in salary growth forecasts. The retail sales report for February will also be released this week. Sales showed steady growth last year, but the January decline and low consumer confidence may signal a continuation of the downward trend.China: restoration of industrial productionIn China, official PMI indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for March will be released on Monday. The consensus forecast assumes a moderate increase in indicators, but a more significant rise is likely, given the positive dynamics of the Emerging Industries PMI index and rising metal prices in March. This indicates a possible recovery in activity in the industrial sector.Markets and macroeconomic developmentsUSA: comments from the Fed representativesIn the United States, Susan Collins, a representative of the Boston Fed, said that an increase in inflation due to the introduction of tariffs is inevitable, but its duration remains uncertain, and monetary policy should remain unchanged. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that high uncertainty could force businesses to temporarily suspend activity, which also requires a cautious approach to monetary policy.Gold and commodity marketsGold prices reached $3,076.79 per ounce as the introduction of new tariffs in the United States, geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in global economic growth led to increased demand for defensive assets.Japan: rising inflation reinforces expectations of rate hikesJapan has published data on the consumer price index in Tokyo for March. The core CPI index (excluding fresh food) rose to 2.4% YoY, exceeding the consensus forecast (2.2%). This reinforces expectations of further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan. We forecast two rate hikes of 25 bps each before the end of the year, the next of which is likely to take place in July.USA: revised GDP and reaction to new tariffsIn the United States, the revised GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was adjusted upward to 2.4% (consensus forecast: 2.3%) due to a less pronounced negative contribution from inventory changes. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits remained stable.The announcement of the introduction of 25% tariffs on cars caused a mixed reaction among US trading partners. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that trade relations with the United States have changed and a review of agreements is required. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the development of measures to protect the interests of the EU.Eurozone: credit momentum and ECB rhetoricIn February, lending in the eurozone continued to grow: household lending increased to 1.5% (from 1.3% in January), and to the corporate sector — to 2.2% (from 2.0%). This indicates that the effects of lower interest rates are being transferred to the real economy. However, the credit impulse, estimated at 1.17% of GDP, remains low by historical standards, despite the ECB's rate cut of 150 bps over the past year.The speeches of the ECB representatives were mixed. Many members of the Governing Council stressed the inflationary risks associated with tariffs, indicating a gradual shift by the regulator towards a more cautious approach.Norway: Central bank policyThe Bank of Norway left its key interest rate at 4.50%, but maintained a relaxed outlook. Two rate cuts are expected in 2025 and a possible cut in June under favorable conditions. We are revising the forecast for 2025 and expect two rate cuts (in September and December), three cuts in 2026 and a final cut in 2027 to 3.00%.Stock markets: reactions to new tariffsStock markets declined, but not as significantly as might have been expected after the announcement of the new tariffs. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, while the European Stoxx 600 declined 0.5%. Over the past two weeks, American stocks have outperformed European stocks by 2 percentage points, but we recommend focusing on the fundamental factors that continue to favor Europe.The protective sectors showed the greatest growth — consumer goods and healthcare, while the technology sector (Nvidia), industry (automobiles) and energy declined. It is important to consider the ability of companies to price in the new environment. For example, Volkswagen shares declined by only 1.5%, while Stellantis fell by 4.2%, BMW by 2.5%, and French supplier Valeo lost 8% after announcing the need to raise prices due to tariffs.The European real estate sector grew by 2% due to lower European bond yields amid tariff news.The foreign exchange marketEUR/USD remains in the range of 1.08–1.09 with a slight advantage of the bulls. European interest rates have changed little, but the government bond yield curve continues to show an upward trend. The Swedish krona (SEK) exchange rate remains stable, but in the short term, upward risks in cross-rates are possible. 
FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 28, 2025As America's Liberation Day approaches, markets are cautious about the possible imposition of 25% tariffs on car imports.Despite Bloomberg forecasts of a potential 0.5 percentage point decline in German GDP, the EUR/USD pair is showing resilience and is stable around the 1.08 mark.Euro support factors1. Postponing the introduction of measures: UBS analysts admit a scenario in which the US administration may extend the deadline for making a final decision, postponing the real start of a trade conflict.2. Buffered stocks of car dealers: The availability of 2-3-month stocks from European exporters creates a temporary safety cushion for the EU economy.3. Fiscal stimulus in Germany: Planned budget support measures (estimated by Deutsche Bank at €1 trillion) may offset some of the negative effect of trade restrictions.The largest car suppliers in the USARisks to the American economy- According to Morgan Stanley estimates, the introduction of duties will lead to an increase in car prices in the United States by 11-12%, which:- Will increase inflationary pressure- Will limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy- As noted by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, such measures create a dilemma for the central bank, forced to choose between controlling inflation and supporting the economy.The dynamics of American inflationThe current positioning of EUR/USD indicates:- Formation of a potential base in the 1.0735-1.0755 zone- The possibility of a breakdown of resistance in the area of 1.0820 to confirm the upward momentumConclusions and recommendations1. The short-term stability of the euro is explained by:- Expectation of postponement of trade measures- Training of European exporters- The difference in macroeconomic cycles (US slowdown vs EU fiscal support)2. The prospect of medium-term consolidation looks preferable, however:- The final decision on tariffs (expected on April 2) remains a key risk- The Fed's reaction to the inflationary consequences may change the balance of powerA trading strategy involves- Gradual build-up of long positions while consolidating above 1.0820- Installation of protective orders below 1.0735- Monitoring of official comments on trade policy 
During Thursday's Asian session, USD/JPY is showing a moderate correction, retreating from recent highs. The pair is stabilizing near the level of 150.15. After active growth the day before, the market switched to standby mode before the publication of important macroeconomic data that may set the direction of movement for the coming sessions.The main attention of market participants is focused on inflation data in Tokyo (23:30 GMT), a key indicator for the Bank of Japan in assessing the prospects for monetary policy changes. The core consumer price index (excluding fresh food) is expected to remain at 2.2% in March, while the broader index may reach 2.9%.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, recently confirmed that the regulator is ready to consider raising interest rates if inflationary dynamics become stable. However, the February increase in the nationwide CPI to 3.7% and the baseline to 3.0% was largely due to temporary factors such as rising import costs. Ueda expects core inflation to approach the 2.0% target only in the second half of fiscal year 2026-2027, which pushes back the prospect of policy tightening.Today we should pay attention to the American statistics- Base PCE index (14:30 GMT+2) — expected to grow from 2.6% to 2.7% in annual terms- University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (16:00 GMT+2) — forecast to remain at 57.9 pointsYesterday's data on durable goods orders in February showed an unexpected increase (0.9% versus the expected -1.0%), which temporarily supported the dollar.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayOn the Daily, the main forex indicators give the following signals:- Bollinger bands indicate a moderate uptrend with an expansion of the price range- The MACD indicator retains a buy signal, testing the zero mark- Stochastic is rolling back from the overbought zone, signaling a possible short-term correctionTrading recommendations1. Selling: A breakdown below 150.00 opens the way to 149.09. Stop loss is 150.50.2. Purchases: A rebound from 150.00 followed by a rise above 150.50 may lead to a test of 151.50. Stop loss is 150.00. 
Key economic events and market trendsUSA: GDP revision and tariff impactIn the second half of the day, a revised estimate of GDP growth will be published in the United States. However, no significant impact on the markets is expected.The main news was the announcement by the US president of the introduction of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign cars and auto parts from April 2. The move has raised concerns among trading partners, including the EU and Canada, which are considering retaliatory measures. The impact of these tariffs on inflation also remains in focus, as they may increase price pressures, leading to a review of the Fed's policy.In addition, in February, orders for durable goods increased by 0.9% against the forecast of -1.0%. However, this did not lead to significant movements in the market.Eurozone: credit activity and ECB policyData on monetary aggregates and lending will be published in the eurozone today. In the context of the ECB's ongoing debate on monetary policy rigidity, credit growth data will be key. In recent months, lending to the private sector has increased to 2% YoY, but the momentum (the difference between new and repaid loans) remains stable at 1%, indicating continued policy rigidity.In addition, representatives of the ECB, including Isabelle Schnabel, will speak today, which may give additional signals on the future policy course.Norway: Norges Bank rate decisionNorges Bank is expected to lower its key rate to 4.25%, despite the fact that market expectations estimate the probability of this step at only 25-30%. Inflation in February was higher than expected, which could support a tougher policy. However, Norges Bank is likely to focus on slowing inflation, low capacity utilization and maintaining a restrictive policy, which may be an argument in favor of lowering interest rates. We also expect the forecasts for 2025-2028 to be revised towards two rate cuts in 2025.United Kingdom: lower inflation and prospects for lower ratesUK inflation in February was lower than expected: the overall index was 2.8% YoY (forecast: 3.0%), while core inflation fell to 3.5% YoY (forecast: 3.6%). These data reinforce expectations of a possible rate cut by the Bank of England at the next meeting, especially if inflation remains within expectations in the April report.In the political sphere, the Government's spring budget was in line with expectations, confirming its commitment to fiscal stability measures. The initial reaction of the bond market was sharp, but by the end of the day, the yield on 10-year Gilts had dropped by only 1-3 bps.Sweden: worsening economic sentimentThe latest NIER economic survey showed a decline in confidence in the economy, especially among consumers, indicating continued weak sentiment. The planned price increase in March was higher than normal, which increases concerns about stagflation.The minutes of the Riksbank meeting reflected a balanced approach: despite high inflation, the bank considers its acceleration as temporary. Overall, the current policy course remains balanced, but the market may overestimate expectations for a rate hike, especially in the face of rising inflation.Geopolitics: tensions between Russia and UkraineThe ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, as the sides accuse each other of violating the agreements. The EU has rejected Russia's terms of the Black Sea agreement, raising uncertainty. A meeting of the leaders of the EU and Ukraine will take place in Paris today, where the issue of security will be discussed.Stock market: reaction to trade barriersUS stock markets closed lower amid news about Trump's tariffs. IndexThe S&P 500 fell 1.1%, but the equally weighted S&P 500 declined only 0.2%, indicating targeted sales in the automotive sector, including Tesla and other manufacturers.Despite the negative sentiment, US futures are trading with a slight increase, while European markets are showing weakness.Currency and debt market: expectations of Norges Bank's decisionAmid rising geopolitical risks and tariff news, EUR/USD initially declined, but then recovered, trading just below 1.08. The Scandinavian currencies moved in different directions, with a slight weakening of NOK/SEK.Today, the key event will be Norges Bank's rate decision, and despite the uncertainty, we see the likelihood of a 25bp decline. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 27, 2025Donald Trump confirmed his intention to continue the policy of trade protectionism, announcing the introduction of 25% tariffs on car imports – a key point of his election program. Despite the expected severity of the measures, the US administration is demonstrating a selective approach, which somewhat softened the initial market reaction. The EUR/USD pair, having briefly declined, quickly regained its position, which indicates a skeptical perception of the scale of potential damage.The introduction of additional duties (on top of the existing 2.5%) will significantly increase the cost of imported cars, which make up about half of the American market. Although the formal purpose of the measures is to protect jobs, the real effect may be counterproductive.:- Disruption of global supply chains will trigger inflationary pressures- Lower consumer demand will slow down GDP growth- The forced continuation of the Fed's tight monetary policy will increase recessionary risksSuch a scenario creates a paradoxical situation – with the formal strengthening of the dollar as a defensive asset, the fundamental prerequisites for its long-term weakening will increase.The European Union, which had prepared a package of countermeasures in advance during Trump's previous term, has a significant arsenal of retaliatory actions.:1. Targeted restrictions for American tech giants2. Regulatory pressure on the US financial sector3. Manipulation of government debt portfoliosOf particular importance is the imbalance in trade in services (€109 billion in favor of the EU), which opens up additional levers of pressure.Against the background of the expected tightening of fiscal policy in the United States, Germany is showing a turn towards fiscal expansion. This divergent dynamics creates the foundation for a gradual strengthening of the euro.The current inability of the bears to test the 1.0715 level in EUR/USD indicates that the downward momentum is fading. However, considering:- Uncertainty of the real scale of tariff consequences (final decision expected on April 2)- The possibility of coordinating response measures between the EU, Japan and other affected economiesA wait-and-see approach with monitoring seems rational.:- Reactions of European regulators- Dynamics of inflation expectations in the USA- Technical signals when testing key levelsThe scenario of moderate EUR/USD growth in the medium term looks preferable, but its implementation will require confirmation of the resilience of the EU economy to external shocks. 
In the United States, the Conference Board's consumer confidence report for March will be published.Earlier, a similar study by the University of Michigan showed a marked deterioration in sentiment caused by political uncertainty. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, will also give a speech today.The IFO business activity index will be published in Germany. Investors are waiting to see if it will confirm the positive signal from the manufacturing PMI or repeat the decline in the services sector.Sweden will release producer price index data for February. The focus of attention will be on the sub-component of the domestic supply, which most accurately correlates with consumer prices.The Hungarian Central Bank will make a decision on the rate today. The regulator is expected to keep it at 6.50%, which is in line with the market consensus forecast.The People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key rate (1-year rate on medium-term loans). It is expected that it will remain unchanged, as the Central Bank of China is currently taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.Eurozone: mixed PMI dataThe eurozone PMI for March was weaker than expected, although it generally reflected moderate economic growth. The composite index rose to 50.4 (expected 50.7), which is higher than the February reading of 50.2. The main growth was provided by the manufacturing sector, where the PMI unexpectedly rose to 48.7 (expected 48.2). However, the service sector disappointed, falling to 50.4 (forecast of 51.1, previous value of 50.6).Overall, the PMI data signals a positive start to 2025, with expected GDP growth of 0.2% QoQ. However, these data do not provide clear signals for the ECB's April rate decision, and the market has not changed its expectations yet.USA: industrial downturn amid tariff risksThe preliminary US PMI for March fell to 49.8 from 52.7 in February, reflecting a slowdown in business activity. The data shows the opposite trend compared to the eurozone.The manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction zone again amid uncertainty around trade tariffs, which was reflected in rising commodity prices and lower order volumes and employment. At the same time, the service sector showed a solid recovery, rising to 54.3 (from 51.0).The market reaction to this data was mixed. The EUR/USD exchange rate declined slightly, and the US stock markets played back positive expectations for easing trade restrictions. Donald Trump said that car tariffs will be introduced, but not all measures will take effect on April 2. It is possible that some countries will receive exceptions, which keeps the uncertainty around the US trade policy.UK: PMIs beat forecasts, supporting the poundThe preliminary PMI indices for March in the UK turned out to be better than expected, which led to a decrease in the EUR/GBP exchange rate. The composite index rose to 52.0 (expected 50.5), while growth in the service sector was particularly strong — 53.2 (forecast 51.0). At the same time, the industrial sector continues to experience difficulties, its PMI was 44.6 (47.2 expected).Despite the weak February data, employment figures began to improve. However, this increase should be interpreted with caution due to the increase in the national insurance contribution of employers since April. Pressure on prices in the service sector is decreasing, while the situation in industry remains ambiguous. In general, the data supports the scenario of a gradual easing of the Bank of England's policy with quarterly rate cuts.The geopolitical situationFollowing the talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia continued discussions aimed at establishing a maritime truce in the Black Sea ahead of negotiations on a broader ceasefire in Ukraine. Despite US optimism, the ongoing strikes between the sides highlight the fragility of the 30-day ceasefire.European countries remain skeptical about Russia's willingness to make real concessions, which increases uncertainty around possible agreements. A meeting of the US and Ukrainian delegations is scheduled in Saudi Arabia today.Stock markets: optimism amid lower trade risksEncouraging news about a possible easing of tariffs led to a rise in US stock indexes:• S&P 500 +1.8%• Nasdaq +2.3%• Russell 2000 +2.6%Investors took advantage of the moment to buy, especially the activity was high among Mag 7, which made this the best day for the group since January. Tesla became the main growth leader, adding 12%.In Europe, stock indexes remained at the same levels, despite the positive PMI data. However, activity in cyclical sectors such as banks and commodity companies indicates a latent increase in interest in risky assets.Nevertheless, optimism is waning today: Asian markets are showing multipolar dynamics, and futures on American and European indices are declining.Bonds and the foreign exchange market• The US indices showed growth, and the S&P 500 closed above the 200-day moving average again, which is associated with hopes for a reduction in tariff pressure.• US and European bond yields rose slightly, while spreads to peripheral assets narrowed in Europe.• The EUR/USD pair continues to trade around 1.08, and the improvement in market sentiment has put pressure on the yen.• In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced early elections on April 28, but the reaction of the foreign exchange market was restrained, as this step was expected.• The Norwegian krone was supported by rising oil prices, and EUR/NOK dropped below 11.40.• The Swedish krona strengthened and ended yesterday's session at its lows since the end of 2022, breaking the 10.90 mark.ConclusionsFinancial markets remain in a zone of uncertainty:• In the US, PMI data show a slowdown in industry, but growth in the services sector is still offsetting the negative effect.• In Europe, the PMI confirms a modest improvement in the economy, but does not provide clear signals for the ECB.• Geopolitical factors remain a key risk for the markets, despite the truce talks.Today, investors' attention will be focused on data on consumer confidence in the United States, as well as decisions by the central banks of Hungary and China. 
NZD/USD analysis on March 25, 2025The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure against the US currency, trading in a narrow range near the 0.5725 mark. The pair is holding at local lows, updated on March 14, reflecting the dominance of "bearish" sentiment.The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics, which is facilitated by multidirectional macroeconomic data. In March, the S&P Global index of business activity in the services sector rose from 51.0 to 54.3 points, exceeding analysts' expectations (51.2 points). However, the index in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly dropped from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which was a signal of a slowdown in industrial growth.The New Zealand dollar received support after the publication of data on the Australian economy. The index of business activity in the service sector strengthened from 50.8 to 51.2 points, and in the manufacturing industry (according to data from Judo Bank) increased from 50.4 to 52.6 points.One of the key factors in the strengthening of the NZD/USD was the February performance of New Zealand's foreign trade. Exports increased from $6.06 billion to $6.74 billion, while imports decreased from $6.6 billion to $6.23 billion. This allowed the trade balance to reach a surplus of 510 million dollars, whereas a month earlier the deficit was recorded at the level of -544 million dollars.The New Zealand economy has emerged from the deepest recession since 1991, unrelated to COVID-19. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the country's GDP grew by 0.7% after declining by 1.1% in the previous period. However, the prospects for further growth acceleration remain limited. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to continue to regulate interest rates to support the recovery in domestic demand and strengthen consumer confidence.Senior Economist at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon noted that the quarterly economic growth exceeded market expectations (0.5%) and was in the upper limit of the forecasted range. The largest contribution to the recovery was made by the service sector, real estate, retail, hospitality, healthcare and social support.Technical analysis of NZD/USD for todayThe indicators give mixed signals on the daily chart.:• The Bollinger indicator is narrowing, indicating a decrease in volatility, but the range remains wide enough for active movements.• The MACD is declining, remaining below the signal line and approaching the zero mark, which indicates a continuing downward potential.• Stochastic has started to exit the oversold zone, which may signal an attempt to reverse upward in the near future.Trading recommendations• Sales can be considered after the breakdown of 0.5700 with a target of 0.5650. The protective stop loss is 0.5730.• If the exchange rate recovers and fixes above 0.5750, purchases with a target of 0.5800 are possible. The stop loss is 0.5720. 
On Tuesday, USD/CAD shows an uncertain movement near the level of 1.4315. Investors are refraining from active actions in anticipation of new drivers that can set a clear direction for the asset. The caution of the bidders is explained by the mixed signals of the fundamental indicators.The March business activity indices in the United States presented a contradictory picture. The manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted (the PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points), while the service sector showed strong growth (from 51.0 to 54.3 points). Today, the market's attention is focused on data on new home sales and the price index, which may confirm a slowdown in price pressure in the construction sector.The Canadian Government is taking active steps to strengthen the national economy in the face of trade challenges. Prime Minister Mark Carney's plan includes:- Simplification of internal trade barriers- Investments in transport infrastructure- Acceleration of the implementation of major projectsThese measures are aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the Canadian economy in the face of external pressure.USD/CAD technical analysisThe main forex indicators paint an ambiguous picture:- Bollinger bands show a narrowing of the range- MACD shows weak bearish dynamics- Stochastic is turning downwards after a recent riseThis configuration indicates market indecision and a possible trend change.Trading recommendationsShort positions: relevant for the breakdown of 1.4300 with a target of 1.4200. The stop loss is 1.4350.Purchases will be promising with a rebound from 1.4300 and overcoming 1.4350 with a target of 1.4451. Stop loss 1.4300