Germany: voting on fiscal package
A vote on a package of fiscal measures is scheduled in the Bundestag today, and the document is due to be considered in the Bundesrat on Friday. The package is expected to be approved.
CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz declared unanimous support for the initiative, but there are risks that not all party members will vote in favor.
In addition, the Free Voters of Bavaria party may not support the bill when voting in the Bundesrat.
USA and Russia: negotiations on Ukraine
US President Donald Trump has announced plans to hold talks with Russian President Putin on ending the conflict in Ukraine. The discussion is likely to touch on the issue of territorial concessions from Ukraine, as well as the transfer of control over energy facilities, which Trump has previously expressed. At the moment, Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day truce.
Japan: Bank of Japan meeting
The Bank of Japan will end its two-day monetary policy meeting overnight. It is expected that the regulator will keep the interest rate unchanged, as the unexpected increase in January, trade tensions and the strengthening of the yen have already had an impact on inflation. However, given the likely increase in wages this year, the Bank of Japan may find opportunities to raise rates further in the summer.
Overview of key economic events and market news
The situation in the Middle East
Israel carried out its largest attack since the January truce, hitting several Hamas targets. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office said it was in response to the group's refusal to release the remaining hostages. Before the strike, the Israeli authorities held consultations with the White House administration.
US retail Sales data
The February statistics on retail sales in the United States gave mixed signals. The indicator of the control group increased by 1.0% (forecast: 0.3%) after falling by 0.9% in January. However, the overall indicator increased by only 0.2% mom after a 0.9% decrease in January. The exclusion of volatile categories improved the picture: the control group showed an increase of 1.0% against the previous decline of 1.0%. However, the effect of seasonal adjustments could artificially increase the growth rate, which confirms the decrease in the annual rate (+0.3% yoy versus +4.1%). After the release of these data, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined.
The economic situation in China
The January-February data showed a solid start to the year, although some weaknesses remain. Industrial production exceeded expectations, increasing by 5.9% YoY (forecast: 5.3%). This growth explains the recent rise in metal prices. A more important signal was the improvement in consumer demand: retail sales increased by 4% YoY (forecast: 3.8%). Despite the positive dynamics, the level remains below 7-8% of the pre-pandemic period. Boosting domestic demand is now a top priority for the Chinese government.
Financial markets
Stock indexes
Global stock markets mostly showed growth. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes recorded their first two-day gains since the record close on February 19. However, macroeconomic statistics did not support this growth. The Dow Jones index rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 0.6%, the Nasdaq by 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 by 1.2%.
Positive sentiment prevailed in Asian markets, with the Hang Seng index reaching a new high since the beginning of the year. At the same time, Indonesia's economy is experiencing difficulties, which has led to the sale of assets and the temporary suspension of trading. In Europe, futures are showing growth amid expectations of a vote in the Bundestag, while American futures are showing a decline.
Bonds and the foreign exchange market
Bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic declined ahead of the German vote and amid relatively stable market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair was trading around 1.09, remaining close to last week's highs. EUR/SEK held above 11.00 as investors assessed the impact of increased government loans amid increased defense spending.
In the United States, the Conference Board's consumer confidence report for March will be published.Earlier, a similar study by the University of Michigan showed a marked deterioration in sentiment caused by political uncertainty. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, will also give a speech today.The IFO business activity index will be published in Germany. Investors are waiting to see if it will confirm the positive signal from the manufacturing PMI or repeat the decline in the services sector.Sweden will release producer price index data for February. The focus of attention will be on the sub-component of the domestic supply, which most accurately correlates with consumer prices.The Hungarian Central Bank will make a decision on the rate today. The regulator is expected to keep it at 6.50%, which is in line with the market consensus forecast.The People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key rate (1-year rate on medium-term loans). It is expected that it will remain unchanged, as the Central Bank of China is currently taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.Eurozone: mixed PMI dataThe eurozone PMI for March was weaker than expected, although it generally reflected moderate economic growth. The composite index rose to 50.4 (expected 50.7), which is higher than the February reading of 50.2. The main growth was provided by the manufacturing sector, where the PMI unexpectedly rose to 48.7 (expected 48.2). However, the service sector disappointed, falling to 50.4 (forecast of 51.1, previous value of 50.6).Overall, the PMI data signals a positive start to 2025, with expected GDP growth of 0.2% QoQ. However, these data do not provide clear signals for the ECB's April rate decision, and the market has not changed its expectations yet.USA: industrial downturn amid tariff risksThe preliminary US PMI for March fell to 49.8 from 52.7 in February, reflecting a slowdown in business activity. The data shows the opposite trend compared to the eurozone.The manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction zone again amid uncertainty around trade tariffs, which was reflected in rising commodity prices and lower order volumes and employment. At the same time, the service sector showed a solid recovery, rising to 54.3 (from 51.0).The market reaction to this data was mixed. The EUR/USD exchange rate declined slightly, and the US stock markets played back positive expectations for easing trade restrictions. Donald Trump said that car tariffs will be introduced, but not all measures will take effect on April 2. It is possible that some countries will receive exceptions, which keeps the uncertainty around the US trade policy.UK: PMIs beat forecasts, supporting the poundThe preliminary PMI indices for March in the UK turned out to be better than expected, which led to a decrease in the EUR/GBP exchange rate. The composite index rose to 52.0 (expected 50.5), while growth in the service sector was particularly strong — 53.2 (forecast 51.0). At the same time, the industrial sector continues to experience difficulties, its PMI was 44.6 (47.2 expected).Despite the weak February data, employment figures began to improve. However, this increase should be interpreted with caution due to the increase in the national insurance contribution of employers since April. Pressure on prices in the service sector is decreasing, while the situation in industry remains ambiguous. In general, the data supports the scenario of a gradual easing of the Bank of England's policy with quarterly rate cuts.The geopolitical situationFollowing the talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia continued discussions aimed at establishing a maritime truce in the Black Sea ahead of negotiations on a broader ceasefire in Ukraine. Despite US optimism, the ongoing strikes between the sides highlight the fragility of the 30-day ceasefire.European countries remain skeptical about Russia's willingness to make real concessions, which increases uncertainty around possible agreements. A meeting of the US and Ukrainian delegations is scheduled in Saudi Arabia today.Stock markets: optimism amid lower trade risksEncouraging news about a possible easing of tariffs led to a rise in US stock indexes:• S&P 500 +1.8%• Nasdaq +2.3%• Russell 2000 +2.6%Investors took advantage of the moment to buy, especially the activity was high among Mag 7, which made this the best day for the group since January. Tesla became the main growth leader, adding 12%.In Europe, stock indexes remained at the same levels, despite the positive PMI data. However, activity in cyclical sectors such as banks and commodity companies indicates a latent increase in interest in risky assets.Nevertheless, optimism is waning today: Asian markets are showing multipolar dynamics, and futures on American and European indices are declining.Bonds and the foreign exchange market• The US indices showed growth, and the S&P 500 closed above the 200-day moving average again, which is associated with hopes for a reduction in tariff pressure.• US and European bond yields rose slightly, while spreads to peripheral assets narrowed in Europe.• The EUR/USD pair continues to trade around 1.08, and the improvement in market sentiment has put pressure on the yen.• In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced early elections on April 28, but the reaction of the foreign exchange market was restrained, as this step was expected.• The Norwegian krone was supported by rising oil prices, and EUR/NOK dropped below 11.40.• The Swedish krona strengthened and ended yesterday's session at its lows since the end of 2022, breaking the 10.90 mark.ConclusionsFinancial markets remain in a zone of uncertainty:• In the US, PMI data show a slowdown in industry, but growth in the services sector is still offsetting the negative effect.• In Europe, the PMI confirms a modest improvement in the economy, but does not provide clear signals for the ECB.• Geopolitical factors remain a key risk for the markets, despite the truce talks.Today, investors' attention will be focused on data on consumer confidence in the United States, as well as decisions by the central banks of Hungary and China. 
NZD/USD analysis on March 25, 2025The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure against the US currency, trading in a narrow range near the 0.5725 mark. The pair is holding at local lows, updated on March 14, reflecting the dominance of "bearish" sentiment.The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics, which is facilitated by multidirectional macroeconomic data. In March, the S&P Global index of business activity in the services sector rose from 51.0 to 54.3 points, exceeding analysts' expectations (51.2 points). However, the index in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly dropped from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which was a signal of a slowdown in industrial growth.The New Zealand dollar received support after the publication of data on the Australian economy. The index of business activity in the service sector strengthened from 50.8 to 51.2 points, and in the manufacturing industry (according to data from Judo Bank) increased from 50.4 to 52.6 points.One of the key factors in the strengthening of the NZD/USD was the February performance of New Zealand's foreign trade. Exports increased from $6.06 billion to $6.74 billion, while imports decreased from $6.6 billion to $6.23 billion. This allowed the trade balance to reach a surplus of 510 million dollars, whereas a month earlier the deficit was recorded at the level of -544 million dollars.The New Zealand economy has emerged from the deepest recession since 1991, unrelated to COVID-19. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the country's GDP grew by 0.7% after declining by 1.1% in the previous period. However, the prospects for further growth acceleration remain limited. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to continue to regulate interest rates to support the recovery in domestic demand and strengthen consumer confidence.Senior Economist at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon noted that the quarterly economic growth exceeded market expectations (0.5%) and was in the upper limit of the forecasted range. The largest contribution to the recovery was made by the service sector, real estate, retail, hospitality, healthcare and social support.Technical analysis of NZD/USD for todayThe indicators give mixed signals on the daily chart.:• The Bollinger indicator is narrowing, indicating a decrease in volatility, but the range remains wide enough for active movements.• The MACD is declining, remaining below the signal line and approaching the zero mark, which indicates a continuing downward potential.• Stochastic has started to exit the oversold zone, which may signal an attempt to reverse upward in the near future.Trading recommendations• Sales can be considered after the breakdown of 0.5700 with a target of 0.5650. The protective stop loss is 0.5730.• If the exchange rate recovers and fixes above 0.5750, purchases with a target of 0.5800 are possible. The stop loss is 0.5720. 
On Tuesday, USD/CAD shows an uncertain movement near the level of 1.4315. Investors are refraining from active actions in anticipation of new drivers that can set a clear direction for the asset. The caution of the bidders is explained by the mixed signals of the fundamental indicators.The March business activity indices in the United States presented a contradictory picture. The manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted (the PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points), while the service sector showed strong growth (from 51.0 to 54.3 points). Today, the market's attention is focused on data on new home sales and the price index, which may confirm a slowdown in price pressure in the construction sector.The Canadian Government is taking active steps to strengthen the national economy in the face of trade challenges. Prime Minister Mark Carney's plan includes:- Simplification of internal trade barriers- Investments in transport infrastructure- Acceleration of the implementation of major projectsThese measures are aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the Canadian economy in the face of external pressure.USD/CAD technical analysisThe main forex indicators paint an ambiguous picture:- Bollinger bands show a narrowing of the range- MACD shows weak bearish dynamics- Stochastic is turning downwards after a recent riseThis configuration indicates market indecision and a possible trend change.Trading recommendationsShort positions: relevant for the breakdown of 1.4300 with a target of 1.4200. The stop loss is 1.4350.Purchases will be promising with a rebound from 1.4300 and overcoming 1.4350 with a target of 1.4451. Stop loss 1.4300 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD March 25, 2025The prevailing stereotype about the direct dependence of the dollar exchange rate on the strength of the American economy requires revision. The historical example of 2023-2024, when the strengthening of the USD really correlated with the economic superiority of the United States, may not work in the current conditions.JP Morgan research shows that the introduction of trade barriers will cause more damage to the U.S. economy than to the global economy as a whole. This fundamentally changes the traditional understanding of the factors influencing exchange rates.The scenario of full-scale universal tariffs, which could really paralyze the global economy, is giving way to selective measures. However, it is precisely this selectivity that creates the conditions under which individual economies can gain competitive advantages over the United States. The exclusion policy actively promoted by the Trump administration may lead to a paradoxical result - an increase in the gap between the growth rates of global and American GDP.The gradual and opaque introduction of trade restrictions creates significant difficulties for corporate planning. Uncertainty about the timing of duties on key product groups (semiconductors, automobiles) and possible exclusions is already affecting economic performance. The March drop in the US manufacturing PMI below the critical 50-point mark is a clear confirmation of this thesis.Market expectations of a recession are becoming particularly dangerous, as they can be realized according to the principle of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Historical analysis shows that the period between the growth of recession expectations and the actual start of the recession is usually about seven months. At the same time, the current situation differs from 2022, when fears of a recession did not materialize, since now a political component is being added to economic factors.There is a unique situation when the US administration publicly calls for easing monetary policy, citing a temporary decrease in energy inflation. However, the Fed is showing restraint, as evidenced by the revision of committee members' forecasts towards fewer easing measures. This creates an additional uncertainty factor for the currency markets.The current EUR/USD correction is likely to be short-term. The pressure on the pair will remain until the end of March, but then the key pivot level for the current strategy remains at 1.0855. As long as the exchange rate is below this limit, short positions are preferred. However, it should be borne in mind that any softening of the US administration's rhetoric on trade issues may provoke a sharp trend reversal. 
Eurozone: impact of PMI on ECB decisionAn important event this week will be the publication of preliminary PMI indices for March in the eurozone. The data may influence the decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates in April.The composite PMI is expected to rise from 50.2 to 50.6 due to the stabilization of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing PMI is likely to rise from 47.6 to 48.4, while the indicator of business activity in the service sector will remain at 50.6.The dynamics of the PMI historically correlates with the ZEW index, which also rose in March, which may indicate an improvement in economic expectations.USA: weak dynamics in the manufacturing sectorIn the US, preliminary PMI data for March will also be published. Earlier, regional leading indicators pointed to a slowdown in industrial growth after the winter recovery, which may increase investor concern.The calendar of macroeconomic events in the United States for the current week is quite light. The Conference Board consumer confidence index will be released on Tuesday, and the core PCE price index, which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed, will be released on Friday.China: stable monetary policy of the People's BankThis week, the People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key interest rate (1-year rate on medium-term MLF loans). It is expected that it will remain unchanged, as the regulator is not in a hurry to take active measures, awaiting further actions by the US Federal Reserve System. With a stable USD/CNY exchange rate, the Chinese Central Bank is more likely to focus on changes in the Fed rate, using alternative mechanisms to support the economy, such as targeted loan programs.Market overview: key events• Japan: The PMI indices for March were worse than expected. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the lowest level in a year, while the services index fell to 49.5, dropping below 50 for the first time since August 2020. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to raise rates if core inflation approaches 2%. Two increases of 25 bps are projected in 2024, the next one in July.• USA: Fed members continue to make cautious comments on the regulator's policy. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said that a moderately restraining policy remains relevant. The Fed is still considering the first rate cut in June, followed by quarterly adjustments of 25 bps to the target range of 3.00–3.25% by June 2026.• Eurozone: The consumer confidence index fell from -13.6 to -14.5 in March, which is a negative signal for the ECB before the April meeting. The deterioration in household expectations calls into question the recovery in private consumption that the regulator is counting on.• Germany: The Upper House of Parliament has approved a large-scale fiscal stimulus package, including 500 billion euros for infrastructure, increased defense spending and easing regional budget constraints. These measures can accelerate economic growth, but also increase inflationary risks.• Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney announced early elections on April 28. Initially, the Conservatives had a significant advantage, but the influence of Donald Trump reduced their gap.Geopolitics: Ukraine negotiations and trade risksConsultations between the United States and Ukraine on energy security and protection of critical infrastructure have begun in Saudi Arabia. Washington expects to conclude a 30-day truce by April 20, but the overnight strikes by both sides show that the situation remains unstable.In addition, Donald Trump confirmed that a new system of reciprocal tariffs will be announced on April 2, which could significantly affect global trade. It remains unclear exactly how the tariff regimes will change, but earlier Trump compared the VAT system in the EU with the actual trade barriers for the United States.Stock markets and currencies• Stock markets: Global indexes ended Friday in a slight negative, but the week as a whole turned out to be positive due to reduced concerns about tariffs. American technologies showed growth: Nasdaq +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Dow +0.1%. Asian markets are trading in different directions this morning, and futures on European and American indices indicate growth.• Forex: The US dollar ended the week with a strengthening, increasing in price for the third day in a row. EUR/USD briefly dropped below 1.08, but closed slightly higher. Despite the strength of the dollar, the Norwegian and Swedish krona strengthened, EUR/SEK fell below 11.00, and EUR/NOK — to 11.40.Current market conditions remain volatile, and the coming weeks will show how much the Fed's policy, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions will affect asset dynamics. 
AUD/USD analysis on March 24, 2025The AUD/USD pair continues to adjust in a downtrend, around the level of 0.6277. Despite the positive business activity data from S&P Global for March, last week. The Australian dollar lost more than 130 pointsThe index of business activity in the Australian manufacturing sector rose from 50.4 to 52.6 points, and reached its highest level in the last 29 months. In the service sector, the index increased from 50.8 to 51.2 points, which contributed to the growth of the composite index from 50.6 to 51.3 points, a record high since September. These data point to an economic recovery, despite the high interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).However, the February labor market data is putting pressure on the Australian currency. Unemployment remained at 4.1%, but total employment fell by 52.8 thousand instead of the expected increase of 30.8 thousand. Full-time employment also decreased by 35.7 thousand. These data may push the RBA to more dovish rhetoric in the near future.The US dollar index recovered slightly to 103.7 points. Last week, for the first time this month, the dollar ended the session in the "green" zone.The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged, but announced plans for at least two rate cuts of 0.25% in the future. However, many experts doubt this, given the uncertainty in the market and lowered forecasts for the economy and inflation in 2025.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayAUD/USD on the Daily is approaching the support line of the ascending channel, the boundaries of which are in the range of 0.6480–0.6250.The Alligator indicator, as well as the Awesome Oscillator (AO), strengthen the sell signals.Trading recommendations- It is advisable to consider short positions after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.6250. The nearest target will be 0.6130. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.- Purchases are possible when the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6310 with a target of 0.6410. The stop loss is 0.6250. 
USD/JPY analysis on March 24, 2025Fundamental factors and market sentimentThe US dollar is showing moderate growth against the yen, continuing to develop the corrective upward movement formed on March 11. During Monday's Asian trading, the instrument is trying to gain a foothold above 149.80, updating the local highs recorded on March 19.The dollar is supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve following last week's meeting, where the regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50% and confirmed that it does not intend to rush to ease monetary policy.According to the updated forecasts, the rate may decrease to 3.90% in 2024, which implies two or more adjustments of 25 bps. In the future, the decline may continue: to 3.40% in 2026 and 3.10% in 2027. However, the market was counting on a softer tone from the regulator, especially in light of political pressure from the administration of Donald Trump.On the other hand, the Bank of Japan also made no changes to monetary policy, keeping the rate at 0.50%. Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the high uncertainty preventing further rate increases. However, the Japanese authorities expect increased inflationary pressures due to increased investment and wage indexation. For example, Japan's largest trade union Rengo has agreed with employers to raise wages by 5.4%, the highest in 34 years, which could accelerate inflation and lead to a tightening of policy in May or July.Weak macroeconomic statistics exerted additional pressure on the yen. In February, inflation in Japan slowed from 4.0% to 3.7%, while the core index (excluding food and energy) rose from only 2.5% to 2.6%. In addition, in March, the Jibun Bank Industrial business activity Index (PMI) decreased from 49.0 to 48.3 points, and in the service sector — from 53.7 to 49.5 points, indicating a slowdown in economic activity.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayAccording to the Daily, the main forex indicators confirm the upward trend:• The Bollinger bands are expanding, signaling an increase in volatility and a possible continuation of the upward movement.• The MACD remains in the positive zone, supporting the buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line).• Stochastic is turning up, but it is already approaching the overbought zone, which may limit the growth potential.Trading recommendations• Purchases are advisable with a confident breakdown of the 150.00 level with a target of 151.50. Stop loss: 149.09.• Sales can be considered at the breakdown of 149.09 down, which will confirm a return to the "bearish" scenario, with a target of 148.00. Stop loss: 149.60.The current technical picture indicates the dominance of the bulls, but the overbought dollar may trigger a corrective decline in the coming trading sessions. 
On Monday, USD/CHF is correcting around 0.8835 after updating the December 6 low last week. Market participants expect new drivers to appear for the further movement of quotations.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on the March data on business activity in the Eurozone. The index in the service sector is expected to grow from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. In Germany, the indicators may also improve: in the service sector — from 51.1 to 51.4 points, and in the manufacturing sector — from 46.5 to 47.7 points.At 15:45 (GMT+2), similar data for the United States will be published: the business activity index in the manufacturing sector is likely to decrease from 52.7 to 51.9 points, and in the service sector it will increase from 51.0 to 51.2 points.The economic expectations index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) for March will be released on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2). Earlier, the index value fell from 17.7 to 3.4 points, which is significantly worse than expected. The quarterly report of the National Bank of Switzerland (NBSH) will be published at 14:00 (GMT+2).The US Federal Reserve kept its key rate at 4.5%, but revised its forecasts: for the current year, the median forecast was lowered from 4.4% to 3.9%, for 2026 from 3.9% to 3.4%, and for 2027 from 3.4% to 3.1%. Long-term expectations remained at 3.0%.The Swiss National Bank lowered the rate to 0.25%, which was the fifth decline in a row. The decision was made against the background of a slowdown in inflation to 0.3% in annual terms in February, the lowest level in the last four years.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayThe Daily (d1) chart shows that the Bollinger Band indicator is turning horizontally, while the MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a buy signal. The stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates a possible correction in the short term.Trading recommendations- We will consider purchases after the breakout of the 0.8863 level. The target is 0.8929. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.8827.- Sales will be possible after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.8800 with a target of 0.8755. In this case, we will place the stop loss at 0.8827.Thus, the USD/CHF pair remains influenced by both macroeconomic data and central bank decisions. The current correction creates opportunities for trading both up and down, depending on the breakdown of key levels.