Forex analytical forecast for AUDUSD, GBPUSD, S&P500 and oil on Tuesday, May 2

EUR/USD: US economic data strengthens dollarDuring the Asian session on January 6, the EUR/USD pair showed a downward trend, trading near the 1.0309 mark, which is 0.67% lower than the previous session.There is a slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone. The business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector dropped to 47.5 in December, indicating a reduction in activity. The consumer price index (CPI) in November showed an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, which is below the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The unemployment rate in the eurozone remains stable at 7.5%. Representatives of the ECB declare their readiness to take additional incentive measures in case of further deterioration of economic indicators.The U.S. economy is showing steady growth. GDP in the third quarter increased by 2.1% year-on-year. The consumer confidence index rose to 98.3 in December, reflecting consumer optimism. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in November, which is in line with the target level of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, which is the lowest level in recent decades. The Fed is signaling that the current monetary policy may remain unchanged in the near future. Retail sales data in the United States will be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts predict an increase from 0.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.3% on an annual basis, which may support the dollar's position.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0440.Support levels: 1.0260, 1.0170.GBP/USD: tax measures weaken the pound's positionDuring the morning trading on January 6, the GBP/USD pair showed a downward trend, trading around 1.2422, which is 0.31% higher than in the previous session.The British economy is facing a number of challenges. According to the British Chamber of Commerce, 55% of companies plan to raise prices in the coming months due to rising labor costs and taxes, especially increased employer national insurance contributions, which is the highest rate since 2017. Business confidence has declined: only 49% expect sales growth next year, and almost a quarter have reduced investments. Inflation reached 2.6% in November 2024.In addition, the tax increases introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the amount of 40 billion pounds have led to a decrease in business confidence to a level not seen since 2022. Only 49% of the surveyed companies expect revenue growth next year. Despite this, the KPMG report forecasts UK economic growth of 1.7% in 2025 due to lower interest rates and increased government spending. However, tax increases and rising national insurance contributions can have a negative impact on business, and many companies plan to raise prices and reduce investments.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2300.USD/CHF: forecasts for the SNB restrain the strengthening of the francDuring the morning session on January 6, the USD/CHF currency pair was trading around 0.9115, showing a weak upward trend. Over the past 24 hours, the Swiss franc has slightly lost ground, the pair added 0.34% to the previous close.The economic situation in Switzerland remains stable, despite the decline in global demand for the country's exports. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the consumer price index (CPI) for December 2024 increased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 1.4% year-on-year, which is within the target level of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The KOF business confidence index fell to 98.6 points in December from 99.4 in November, indicating a decrease in optimism among enterprises. However, the unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at 1.9%, indicating continued high employment.At the last meeting of the Swiss National Bank, the regulator left the key interest rate at -0.75%, citing the need to maintain the competitiveness of Swiss exports. SNB President Thomas Jordan said the central bank would continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to avoid excessive appreciation of the franc. Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), data on gold reserves in the SNB is expected to be published, which may have an additional impact on the franc quotes. Despite strong macroeconomic indicators, the Swiss franc faces external risks. Weak demand for European goods is having an impact, which negatively affects the export-oriented sectors of the Swiss economy. Moreover, investors are assessing the risks of a slowdown in global economic growth, which may limit the franc's strengthening in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9050.Gold market analysisDuring the morning trading on January 6, gold quotes showed a slight decrease, trading around $2,639 per troy ounce, which is 0.79% less than in the previous session.According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2024, the price of gold reached a historic high, exceeding the mark of $2,800 per ounce. Analysts predict that in 2025, gold prices will continue to show positive dynamics, but the growth will be less significant. Demand for gold from central banks remains high, which supports the prices of the precious metal. In particular, for the first time in history, Russia's gold reserves exceeded $200 billion, and the share of gold in gold and foreign exchange reserves was 32.9%. Retail sales data in the United States will be released today. Analysts predict an increase from 0.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.3% on an annual basis, which may affect the dynamics of gold prices.According to forecasts, gold prices may reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, despite short-term fluctuations. However, some experts urge investors to remain moderately optimistic, especially during the first half of 2025. In addition, spot gold is expected to convert the $2,629 level from resistance to key support, which could contribute to further price gains. Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+2), data on the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone will be published. Analysts expect the indicator to remain at 2.0% year-on-year, which may have an impact on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,650, $2,670.Support levels: $2,620, $2,600.

EUR/USD: rising inflation in key eurozone countriesThe EUR/USD pair is holding at 1.0425, showing a decline under the influence of the strengthening US dollar. It is highly likely that the quotes will end the current year near the October lows of 2023.In the last days of December, trading activity has noticeably decreased, as the market is dominated by long-term positions that do not significantly affect the formation of short-term trends. This week, investors' attention will be focused on Spain's economic data. After the publication of Friday's report, which reflected a decline in retail sales in November from 3.4% to 1.0%, preliminary inflation data for December is expected to be released today at 10:00 (GMT+2). Analysts' forecasts suggest an increase in the consumer price index from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.6% on an annual basis. Such indicators, as in most eurozone countries, do not support the current dovish approach of the European Central Bank (ECB). At the next meeting in February, the regulator may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann stressed that further monetary policy easing is likely to be less active and may be postponed.Resistance levels: 1.0480, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0380, 1.0250.GBP/USD: the pound does not meet expectations due to low market activityThe GBP/USD pair remains in a narrow range of 1.2573–1.2490 (the Murray level [1/8] and the Fibonacci retracement of 50.0%), at the level of 1.2581: the recovery of quotations is hampered by reduced activity of market participants during the holidays and weak UK economic statistics.According to the ONS, the country's economy showed no growth in the third quarter, confirming the likelihood of it plunging into recession. The expectations of experts, who predicted an increase of 0.1%, were not fulfilled, and industrial production decreased by 0.7% in October. The composite business activity index also dropped to 50.5 points, which was caused by business concerns about an increase in the tax burden by 40.0 billion pounds, initiated by the Labor government. The situation deprives the market of hopes for economic improvements related to the political stability achieved thanks to the strong support of Parliament. The lack of positive macroeconomic drivers is holding back the Bank of England's ability to continue cutting rates. After the first adjustment in three years from the August high of 5.25% to the current 4.75%, the regulator is still taking a wait-and-see attitude. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, and five other committee members supported maintaining the rate, while three favored reducing it by 25 basis points, citing weakening domestic demand and a deteriorating labor market situation. Despite the current challenges, earlier measures helped reduce inflation: in September, the consumer price index fell to a three-year low of 1.7%, although the rise in electricity prices again kept the indicator above the target level of 2.0%.Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2610, 1.2770.USD/JPY: domestic policy and uncertainty determine the course of the Bank of JapanDuring the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows a decline, holding at the level of 157.89, near the local highs reached on July 17.The main attention of market participants on Friday was attracted by fresh data from Japan: the consumer price index in Tokyo for December increased from 2.6% to 3.0%, and the base index excluding food and energy rose from 2.2% to 2.4%. This indicates an increase in inflation and reinforces expectations of a tightening of monetary policy at the beginning of next year. According to a summary of the Bank of Japan's opinions published last week, a significant part of the board members support the continuation of hawkish measures, but some of them note the need to take into account global economic risks, including possible changes in US policy after the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stressed last week that inflation should be fixed at 2.0% to maintain stability, after which the regulator will continue to maintain soft monetary conditions in order not to exert excessive pressure on the economy. At the October 30-31 meeting, the rate was left at 0.25%, but the regulator made it clear that it was preparing to increase it in the short term. An important role in the future course of policy will be played by the results of the traditional spring negotiations between trade unions and employers on wage increases, which will have a significant impact on household incomes and inflation expectations.Resistance levels: 159.37, 162.50, 165.62.Support levels: 153.12, 146.87, 143.75.Palladium market analysisPalladium remains in a downward corrective trend, holding above the 900.00 level, but continues to experience pressure due to both fundamental and technical factors.One of the key reasons for the price reduction is the reduction of its use in internal combustion engines, which is associated with the transition of the automotive industry to electric cars. According to S&P Global Mobility forecast, global car production in 2025 will decrease by 0.4% to 88.7 million units, including a 2.9% decrease in the United States to 9.9 million vehicles. However, China partially compensates for this drop by increasing production of electric cars by 30.0% to 15.1 million units, which will account for more than 17.0% of the total market.Another important factor limiting palladium's growth is its low investment attractiveness. Compared to gold and silver, this metal has less liquidity and high volatility. Moreover, it is traded only on a limited number of exchanges. In December, the average daily volume of transactions with gold futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) exceeded 400.0 thousand contracts, while for palladium this figure barely reached 6.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 943.00, 1000.00.Support levels: 903.00, 833.00.

EUR/GBP: the pair is retreating from the local peaks recorded the day beforeThe EUR/GBP pair is showing a downward movement, retreating from the highs of December 16, updated in the previous session: Quotes are testing the 0.8310 level, while market activity remains low due to the holiday period.Investors are focused on forecasts for interest rate cuts by leading central banks in 2025. In December, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced plans for two similar cuts from the middle of next year. According to analysts, the European Central Bank may cut rates faster than the US regulator, given the weak economic growth in the eurozone with low inflation risks. Nevertheless, the election of Donald Trump as US president adds to the uncertainty, especially in light of the possible aggravation of trade relations with the EU due to new duties. According to forecasts, the ECB may adjust rates at each meeting until the spring of 2025, and then twice more — in the summer and at the end of the year.The British market is carefully analyzing the GDP data for the third quarter: the final figures turned out to be worse than the preliminary ones, which increases the likelihood of continued soft monetary policy by the Bank of England. In annual terms, economic growth slowed to 0.9% from 1.0%, while quarterly GDP remained unchanged. In December, the regulator left the rate unchanged, awaiting additional data. In 2025, the Bank of England may cut the rate four times if inflation remains low. The slowdown to 2.3% in October 2024 after a peak of 11.0% at the end of 2022 is due to lower prices for food, energy and goods. Chief Economist Hugh Pill stressed that the weakness of the global economy makes the UK particularly vulnerable to price shocks.Resistance levels: 0.8326, 0.8340, 0.8350, 0.8359.Support levels: 0.8310, 0.8294, 0.8280, 0.8259.USD/CHF: dollar growth may strengthen against the background of a stable francThe USD/CHF pair remains in a corrective movement, holding at 0.8993. Despite the steady growth of the US currency, the instrument failed to update its annual highs.The Swiss franc is supported by internal monetary factors. At the last meeting, the Swiss National Bank announced an interest rate cut of 0.50%, which was the most significant step towards easing in the last decade. This decision was prompted by more moderate than expected inflation figures. At the same time, the head of the regulator, Martin Schlegel, stressed that in 2025 the rate could reach 0.25%, but the transition to zero is not yet being considered. The official noted that the current dynamics of consumer prices makes it possible to maintain a cautious approach, but in the event of an acceleration of inflation next year, the Central Bank will take appropriate measures based on the economic situation.Resistance levels: 0.9020, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.8940, 0.8810.AUD/USD: decline persists at the close of the weekThe AUD/USD pair is falling to the local lows of December 19, testing the 0.6210 level again for a possible downward breakout. Trading activity remains subdued during the Christmas holidays, while market participants continue to analyze the prospects for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).In December, the US Federal Reserve decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.50%. According to the updated forecasts, only two such declines are expected next year. At the same time, the probability of a change in monetary policy in the first half of 2025 remains low, due to the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20. The first steps to change the rate are likely to be taken only by the middle of the year, unless new macroeconomic factors arise.The Reserve Bank of Australia is also maintaining a cautious approach, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate adjustment in February. Currently, the probability of this event is estimated at 70%, and another change may follow in July. Optimistic data on the Australian economy confirms the stability of the labor market: in 2024, the number of jobs increased by more than 330,000, while the part-time employment rate remains at 6.1%, and total unemployment is 3.9%.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6274, 0.6300, 0.6336.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6140, 0.6100, 0.6050.Platinum market analysisThis week, Platinum (XPT/USD) is showing attempts to strengthen, despite the low activity of market participants associated with the Christmas holidays. At the moment, the quotes have stabilized around the 943.40 level, corresponding to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.The growing interest in precious metals is supported by the ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and political crises in leading European countries. The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has increased the influence of extremist groups, which have gained access to significant stocks of weapons. This could provoke an escalation of the conflict in the region, which could lead to disruptions in energy supplies and a negative impact on the global economy. At the same time, political instability persists in Germany, where parliamentary elections are approaching, and in France, where the prime minister has once again been replaced. These factors force investors to prefer safe haven assets, including platinum and other precious metals.Resistance levels: 954.00, 1000.00, 1031.25.Support levels: 918.00, 875.00, 843.75.

EUR/USD: bearish trend remains in forceThe EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline during Asian trading, continuing to develop the downward momentum formed earlier: quotes are testing the 1.0400 level again, declining from local highs on December 18. The activity of market participants and transaction volumes are gradually weakening, which is associated with the approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, against which investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude.Pressure on the euro remains due to the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and recent comments by the head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, in an interview with the Financial Times. She expressed concern about the continued rise in prices in the service sector, which remains at around 4.0%. Lagarde also spoke out against possible EU retaliatory measures to impose additional duties from the United States, pointing to their potential negative effect on households and businesses. Against the background of such statements, market participants are reviewing expectations for the rate of interest rate cuts in 2025, but questions about the pace of economic recovery remain open. In December, the ECB cut its key interest rate again by 25 basis points. November inflation accelerated from 2.0% to 2.3%, and forecasts suggest it will rise to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, followed by a decline to 1.9% in 2026, which is below the target level. Additionally, the ECB confirmed its intention to continue reducing its bond portfolio under the PEPP program by 7.5 billion euros per month.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0554.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.GBP/USD: the pair is moving down, reflecting the medium-term bearish dynamicsIn December, the GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement within the framework of a medium-term downtrend, testing the level of 1.2490, corresponding to a 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. The pressure on the pound increased after the release of macroeconomic data, which reflected a slowdown in economic activity in the UK.In particular, the gross domestic product (GDP) did not change in the third quarter, contrary to analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 0.1%. Industrial production also decreased by 0.7% in October, and the aggregate business activity index fell to 50.5 points, due to business concerns about the growing tax burden initiated by the Labor government. As a result, the country's economy may enter a state of technical recession. At the same time, inflation remains at a high level: in November, the consumer price index was 2.6%, and the base index rose to 3.5%. In such a situation, the Bank of England is unable to continue its soft monetary policy, which limits the incentives for economic recovery and increases pressure on the British currency.Resistance levels: 1.2695, 1.2939, 1.3061.Support levels: 1.2490, 1.2300, 1.2095.USD/CHF: Swiss authorities' investigation reveals reasons for Credit Suisse collapseThe USD/CHF pair is showing a steady upward trend in the morning, developing the momentum that began the day before, and is striving to overcome the 0.8990 level. Despite the low activity in the market ahead of the Christmas holidays, the main attention of bidders is focused on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rate changes were discussed.Last week, Switzerland presented statistics on foreign economic activity: exports in November decreased from 27.83 billion to 23.68 billion francs, imports — from 19.80 billion to 18.26 billion francs, which led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. On Friday, the bankruptcy report of Credit Suisse Group AG, prepared by the parliamentary commission, was published. The 569-page document contains 30 recommendations for preventing similar crises in the future. Among the proposals: expanding the powers of FINMA, tightening capital requirements for systemically important banks, and introducing a resident qualification for members of the board of directors. The Committee noted that the mistakes of the Credit Suisse management were the key cause of the crisis: from 2010 to 2022, top managers were paid 39.8 billion francs in bonuses, despite cumulative losses of 33.7 billion francs. Additionally, it is indicated that the regulator unreasonably provided capital allowances in 2017, which prevented the timely identification of the bank's financial problems. The Government is invited to consider measures aimed at preventing similar situations in the future.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100, 0.91 30.Support levels: 0.8957, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices are trading near the level of 72.00, showing sideways dynamics against the background of changes in global demand for energy resources.According to the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), India will become the leader in hydrocarbon consumption in 2024, overtaking China. Forecasts show that India could reach 220,000 barrels per day next year, increasing it to 330,000 barrels per day in 2025. At the same time, China, against the background of an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, will reduce the growth rate of demand to 90 thousand and 250 thousand barrels per day for the same periods. If in 2023 China accounted for up to 70% of global oil demand, then in 2024 the figure may fall to 20%, while India's share will grow to 25%. Already this year, India has taken a leading position in the supply of petroleum products to the EU, surpassing even the United States.Resistance levels: 73.50, 77.00.Support levels: 71.60, 68.40.

GBP/USD: the regulator has maintained the current rate of 4.75%The GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2480 mark after the Bank of England expected to keep the key interest rate at 4.75%. The decision was supported by a majority of members of the Monetary Policy Committee - six out of nine participants, while three supported a 25 basis point rate cut, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, assuming only two supporters of such a measure.Analysts note a change in the emphasis in the regulator's rhetoric from "unstable" to "balanced", which indicates a possible continuation of adjustments in 2025. The Bank of England expressed concern about the acceleration of inflation, noting an increase in the consumer price index from 1.7% in September to 2.6% in November, and revised down its GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter from an expected 2.0% to 1.7%. According to experts, the regulator may reduce the rate to 3.50% over the next year in order to adapt to changing economic conditions.The US dollar is showing steady growth, reaching the level of 108.10 in the USDX index. The dynamics are supported by strong macroeconomic statistics: US GDP increased from 3.0% to 3.1% in the third quarter, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 220 thousand, exceeding expectations, and repeat applications decreased to 1.874 million. There was also an increase in sales in the secondary housing market in November by 4.8%, to 4.15 million, which almost reached the March peak of 4.19 million, strengthening the position of the US currency.Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2700.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2300.USD/CHF: Swiss economy expects production growth of 1.7% by 2026The USD/CHF pair is trading in a mixed mode, being at 0.8980. After the publication of macroeconomic data from the United States, the instrument shows a moderate decline, retreating from the local peaks recorded in early July.Statistics provided by Switzerland the day before showed a noticeable drop in exports in November from 27.826 billion to 23.682 billion francs, while imports decreased from 19.801 billion to 18.257 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus decreased from 8.025 billion to 5.424 billion francs. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the country's economy was previously forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. These figures remain below the average annual growth of the Swiss economy, which is 1.8%. SECO analysts emphasize that next year's economic recovery is likely to depend on domestic demand. This is due to the weakening of interest in Swiss goods from key trading partners such as Germany and China, which limits the prospects for the export sector.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100, 0.91 30.Support levels: 0.8957, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey may fall to 47.50% as early as December 26In the morning, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, reaching 35.1500 and updating historical highs. The strengthening of the dollar is associated with expectations of a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, which supports demand for the US currency.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to internal economic challenges. The Central Bank of Turkey is considering the possibility of further reducing the interest rate, which has been held at 50.00% since March. Despite a slight slowdown, annual inflation in the country remains high, reaching 47.0% in November after peaking at 75.45% in May. The authorities plan to reduce the rate to 35.00% in 2024, which creates the prerequisites for a soft monetary policy. Analysts expect that at the meeting scheduled for December 26, the Turkish regulator may reduce the rate by 250 basis points from the current 50.00% to 47.50%. However, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan had previously refrained from making specific statements, saying that the final decision would depend on current economic data and the inflation forecast.Resistance levels: 35.1500, 35.2167, 35.3000, 35.4500.Support levels: 35.1000, 35.0500, 35.0000, 34.9500.NZD/USD: consolidation near minimum levelsThe NZD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.5625 level. Market activity remains low after a sharp drop in the instrument on Wednesday, caused by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which put pressure on the mood of traders.Today's data from New Zealand does not provide significant support to the New Zealand dollar. The ANZ consumer confidence index rose slightly from 99.8 to 100.2 points in December, exports rose from $5.61 billion to $6.48 billion in November, and imports declined from $7.27 billion to $6.92 billion. As a result, the trade deficit decreased to -0.437 billion dollars, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of -1.951 billion dollars, but did not give a serious impetus to the instrument. A day earlier, New Zealand's GDP data for the third quarter was published. On an annualized basis, the economic growth rate slowed by 1.5% after a 0.5% decline a month earlier, although analysts' expectations were -0.4%. In quarterly terms, the indicator increased from -1.1% to 1.0%, exceeding the forecasts of experts who expected a decrease to -0.4%. Although these data indicate some recovery, they do not yet have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.5661, 0.5700, 0.5750, 0.5775.Support levels: 0.5607, 0.5563, 0.5511, 0.5467.

EUR/USD: the regulator in the USA adjusted the rate by 25 bp.The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust, trading around 1.0375 amid the strengthening of the US dollar and growing expectations of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the published data on a decrease in inflation.In November, the consumer price index in the eurozone fell from 0.3% to -0.3% on a monthly basis, and increased from 2.0% to 2.2% on an annual basis, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%. The basic indicator excluding energy and food products fell from 0.2% to -0.6% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.7% on an annual basis. These results strengthen the case for continued rate cuts, which puts pressure on the euro.The US dollar strengthened to 107.80 on the USDX index after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to cut the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25–4.50%. In addition, the regulator presented revised forecasts: inflation in 2024 is expected to reach 2.4% against 2.3% earlier, in 2025 — 2.5% instead of 2.1%. The GDP growth forecast has been improved to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. The average rate by the end of 2025 is expected to be 4.4%, and in 2026 it will decrease to 3.9%, which is higher than previous estimates. In his statement, the head of the Fed noted that the US economy remains stable, the labor market is cooling, and inflation has slowed significantly over the past two years, although it exceeds target levels. He also stressed that the risks to inflation are generally balanced, but the current dynamics may include temporary factors.Resistance levels: 1.0410, 1.0580.Support levels: 1.0330, 1.0180.GBP/USD: UK has joined the CPTPP Economic AllianceDuring morning trading, the GBP/USD pair is held at 1.2590, partially recovering the losses incurred the previous day. The increase in quotations is due to technical factors, but traders are taking a wait-and-see position before the announcement of the results of the Bank of England meeting scheduled for 14:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the regulator's management will probably decide to leave the key rate at 4.75%, with eight of the nine board members supporting this decision.Wednesday brought disappointment in the form of inflation data: the consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% in November, and the base indicator increased from 3.3% to 3.5%, which slightly exceeded forecasts. Such dynamics signal the possibility of further revision of monetary policy by the Bank of England if inflationary pressure persists or increases in the coming months.On December 15, the United Kingdom completed the process of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, becoming a full participant in it. Within the framework of the alliance, the country waived import duties on palm oil from Malaysia, and also facilitated a number of procedures for trade with other members of the agreement. This step underlines London's desire to strengthen international economic ties and develop partnerships with 11 other member states of the association.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.Silver market analysisAfter a long period of consolidation above the 30.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair fell below this level, which is due to the strengthening of the US currency.The decline in silver prices is taking place against the background of the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve System. Each step to lower the interest rate, accompanied by statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, puts pressure on the metals market. Powell stressed that the American economy is showing stability, and the forecast for GDP growth at the end of 2024 has been raised to 2.5% against the previously expected 2.0%. Moreover, the regulator is considering the possibility of a temporary pause in the cycle of monetary policy easing in order to strengthen control over inflation and bring it to a level below 2.0%. Such steps reduce the attractiveness of precious metals as a protective asset in conditions of stabilization of the economic situation.On December 18, the volume of silver futures trading decreased to 50.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the maximum values of December 11 and 12 — 126.0–127.0 thousand. A similar reduction is observed in the option position, which yesterday amounted to 8,145 thousand, down from a peak of 22,706 thousand last week. This may indicate that market participants are not confident that silver prices will continue to rise and prefer to close positions, waiting for clearer signals for further action.Resistance levels: 30.00, 31.40.Support levels: 29.00, 27.40.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices are showing a sideways trend, remaining slightly above the level of 72.00. The instrument was under pressure due to the growth of the US currency, which reached an annual maximum after the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points and improved forecasts for economic growth by the end of the year.Investors drew attention to the agreement concluded between the Russian company Rosneft and the Indian giant Reliance Industries Ltd. The document provides for the transportation of 500.0 thousand barrels of oil daily to India for ten years, starting in 2025, which makes this deal the largest for the region. The implementation of the project will cover a significant share of Indian demand for hydrocarbons, and processed raw materials will probably be supplied to the countries of the European Union, filling the market deficit caused by sanctions against the Russian energy sector related to the conflict in Ukraine.Support levels: 71.23, 67.61.Resistance levels: 75.38, 79.73.

USD/CHF: the dollar continues to grow, approaching the peaks of NovemberDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to build up the bullish momentum achieved last week, rising to a maximum on November 22 at 0.8955. However, market participants remain restrained, awaiting the outcome of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most analysts predict an interest rate cut of -25 basis points to 4.50%, which is already partially embedded in current quotes. The main focus will be on the regulator's forecasts for further changes in the cost of borrowing for the next three years, as well as on the uncertainty about the economic strategy of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) put additional pressure on the franc with its unexpected decision to lower the interest rate immediately by -50 basis points, to 0.50%, although the markets expected only -0.25%. In their statement, representatives of the regulator stressed their readiness to respond promptly to the economic situation in order to keep inflation within the target range. In addition, the SNB does not exclude the possibility of currency interventions to maintain the stability of the Swiss franc, which remains an attractive safe haven asset for investors. The updated forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation to 1.1% in 2024 (1.2% was previously expected) and 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%). The GDP growth rate has also been revised: this year the figure will be about 1.0%, and in 2025 it is expected in the range of 1.0–1.5%. Recent statistics put additional pressure on the franc: the consumer price index remained one of the lowest in the eurozone, having been fixed at 0.7% year-on-year in November. The producer and import price index showed a decrease from -0.3% to -0.6% on a monthly basis with a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual indicator changed from -1.8% to -1.5%. The focus of market participants remains the SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Tuesday at 16:00 (GMT+2).Resistance levels: 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827.USD/JPY: the pair is holding near the upper limit of the rangeThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating around 154.20, remaining at local highs from November 25. Buyer activity remains subdued amid expectations of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized at 3.0%. Additional attention of traders is attracted by the uncertainty of further actions of the Bank of Japan and the possible influence of the political agenda of the new American administration on them.Experts believe that if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills the promise of imposing 25% duties on Chinese imports, the Japanese financial authorities may respond by devaluing the yen to maintain export competitiveness. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts expect the Bank of Japan's hawkish rate to continue in January, while 44% predict an interest rate hike at the next meeting on December 19. Nevertheless, some economists believe that the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position, focusing on the dynamics of wages, as the spring wage negotiations will show a clearer picture early next year. The published macroeconomic data from Japan strengthen expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy. In October, orders for machinery products increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 2.1%, while an increase of 1.2% was expected. Also, the Jibun Bank manufacturing index from S&P Global strengthened from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and activity in the service sector showed an increase of 0.3% after a decline of 0.1%.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.50, 156.50, 157.50.Support levels: 153.87, 153.27, 152.85, 151.50.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, consolidating around the 2655.00 mark. Trading activity remains restrained, as investors refrain from opening large positions in anticipation of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most experts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 4.50%, which is already reflected in current prices, so sharp fluctuations in the market in the event of such a decision are not expected. However, the attention of the participants will be focused on the updated long-term forecasts of the regulator on rates, especially given the possible strengthening of monetary policy rigidity due to new import duties proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.The day before, traders were evaluating December data on business activity in the United States. The S&P Global manufacturing sector index fell from 49.7 to 48.3 points, turning out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 49.4 points. At the same time, the indicator for the service sector increased from 56.1 to 58.5 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 55.7 points, which led to the strengthening of the composite index from 54.9 to 56.6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in December fell from 31.2 to 0.2 points, noticeably diverging from market expectations at 12.0 points. Today, investors will be watching the November data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Retail sales are forecast to accelerate growth from 0.4% to 0.5%, while industrial production may add 0.3% after falling 0.3% in October. These indicators may give the markets additional guidance on the further dynamics of gold before the key decisions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2643.41, 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Tuesday, December 17, Arabica coffee quotations on the New York ICE exchange traded at 159.2 cents per pound, showing a decrease of 0.65% compared to the previous session. Market pressure continues to be exerted by signals of a possible increase in supply amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia.The economic situation in Brazil remains the focus of traders' attention. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Arabica coffee harvest in 2024 may grow by 6.2% year-on-year to 41.6 million bags, due to an improvement in the precipitation situation in key regions. However, persistent inflation (the CPI consumer price index in November was 4.6% year-on-year against the forecast of 4.4%) and rising logistics costs continue to limit the volume of exports. In November, coffee exports from Brazil decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 3.2 million bags.The Colombian National Committee of Coffee Producers reported yesterday that production in November decreased by 3.5% due to prolonged rains and problems with the delivery of fertilizers. At the same time, demand for coffee remains stable: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee imports increased by 2.1% to 11.3 million bags in October, reflecting high purchase volumes from the United States and European Union countries. European traders are also optimistic about German retail sales data for November, which will be published this week, and may show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%. Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), a report on coffee stocks in ICE exchange certification warehouses is expected: analysts expect a 1.4% reduction in stocks, which may become a supporting factor for prices. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on forecasts of global coffee production and stocks for 2025 will be released.Resistance levels: 162.0, 164.5.Support levels: 158.0, 155.5.

EUR/USD: the euro is looking for a boost from the 1.0460 levelDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair strengthened by 0.12%, reaching 1.0515, continuing to develop positive dynamics after the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.15%.ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the eurozone economy is facing a slowdown in growth against the backdrop of continuing high inflation. She also said that the regulator's next steps will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Investors' attention was focused on the data on industrial production in the eurozone published on Friday: the index for October showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the negative trend. In addition, Germany presented weak statistics on foreign trade. Exports decreased by 2.8%, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of -2.0%, and imports decreased by 0.1% with an expected -0.6%. Nevertheless, the trade surplus increased to 13.4 billion euros. These data reinforced concerns about a slowdown in the EU's largest economy, which is likely to maintain the ECB's dovish position in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0720, 1.0825.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0290.USD/CHF: the pair is testing the resistance of 0.8920 against the background of the NBSH decisionThe USD/CHF pair is holding at 0.8908, trying to overcome the resistance of 0.8920 after the unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points at once to 0.50%. Most analysts' forecasts suggested a more modest decrease of 25 basis points.The head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, explained that the slowdown in inflation in November turned out to be higher than experts' expectations, which makes it possible to accelerate the achievement of the regulator's monetary goals. At the same time, the weakening of business activity recorded in recent months required a more significant reduction in the cost of borrowing to stimulate the economy. The regulator also stressed its readiness to carry out currency interventions depending on the market situation, noting that a return to negative rates in the near future is unlikely. Against the background of these statements, the Swiss franc weakened, which supported the growth of the USD/CHF pair. This dynamic is developing within the framework of an uptrend that began back in October, and indicates a possible continuation of the strengthening of the US currency in the short term.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8755, 0.8625.USD/CAD: quotes have stabilized at peak valuesDuring morning trading, the USD/CAD pair remains near the 1.4220 mark, not far from the April 2020 highs reached at the end of last week. The market remains low in activity, as traders expect the start of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System on December 17-18. Most of the participants are confident that the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum, and will also provide comments on the further strategy.Today at 16:45 (GMT+2), data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector from S&P Global will be announced. Analysts predict that the values will remain at the same level: 49.7 points and 56.1 points, respectively. In addition, at 22:45 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of Canada, Tifa Macklem, is scheduled to speak. Tomorrow, the market's attention will focus on November inflation data in Canada: according to forecasts, the monthly change in the consumer price index will be 0.0% against the previous value of 0.4%, and the annual indicator will remain at 2.0%. Core inflation is likely to remain at 0.4% on a monthly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050.AUD/USD: the decline in business activity in Australia undermines the growth of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is moving in a sideways trend near the 0.6375 level, continuing to show negative dynamics. The slowdown in activity against the background of limited trading in the US dollar could not significantly change the overall picture of the market.The national currency remains under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the interest rate at 4.35%. The December data reflected a decline in business activity: the index in the manufacturing sector fell from 49.4 to 48.2 points, remaining in negative territory for the tenth month in a row, and the indicator in the service sector decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 points. The positive dynamics of the labor market in November somewhat smoothed out the overall negative: employment increased by 35.6 thousand against the forecast of 25.0 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. However, the weak manufacturing sector and limited support from fundamental factors make it difficult for the Australian dollar to rise. The probability of a strengthening of the national currency remains minimal, as the RBA maintains its current course to keep inflation down, avoiding radical changes in monetary policy.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6240.Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6530.