Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD today, March 10

AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD today, March 10

EURUSD: Sanctions against Russia hit EU gas and electricity prices

During the morning session EURUSD is showing the corrective dynamics from March 8, where the asset held the local lows of January 6, and is now testing 1.0585.

Head of the EC Ursula von der Leyen said that the decline in energy imports from Russia on the background of economic constraints due to the war against Ukraine, the cost of gas and electricity in the Eurozone has increased by 300.0%. According to the official, the collapse of transportation of natural gas from Russia to the European market amounted to 80%, which forced the bloc countries to switch to savings. Thus, in the period August 2022-January 2023, consumption decreased by 19.0% compared to the same period of the last five years, while Finland (-57.3%), Lithuania (-47.9%) and Sweden (-40.2%) showed the highest decrease. The European alliance successfully made up the missing volume from the U.S., Canada and Norway and accumulated 61.0% reserves.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0640, 1.0700, 1.0747.
  • Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400.

USDJPY: The potential of the yen was discussed by Deutsche Bank experts

The trading pair USDJPY reflects a moderate rise, being at 136.50, developing growth. "American" continues to recover the positions lost the day before, which was due to the release of the macroeconomic bloc from the United States, according to which the initial applications for unemployment benefits renewed the show of 211.0 thousand, beating analysts' expectations of 195.0 thousand, and the previous figure of 190.0 thousand, and the total value of population, which were approved payments, strengthened to 1.718, million to the previous 1.649 million.

Meanwhile, experts from Deutsche Bank AG allow the Japanese yen to strengthen by 60.0% provided that the national regulator will change the trend in the issue of monetary parameters and the U.S. Federal Reserve will follow suit and move to reduce the interest rate. According to analysts, the yen is "fair value equilibrium" lower by 30.0% (100.00) under current conditions, and Japan's 10-year Treasury securities should yield between 1.5% and 1.6%. At the same time, according to comments from representatives of the Japanese banking institution Mizuho Securities Co. Ltd., after the change of the head in the Bank of Japan, the regulator is likely to continue to maintain the current course of monetary policy until the end of Q2, because the dynamics of inflation is not weakening. Thus, in January the annualized consumer price index accelerated at the highest rate since late 1981, having gained 4.3%.

  • Resistance levels: 136.50, 137.50, 138.50, 139.67.
  • Support levels: 135.57, 134.54, 134.00, 133.00.

AUDUSD: the pair is trading near the local high

The AUDUSD trading instrument displays moderate strengthening, resuming positions at 0.6600, continuing gains, intending to move away from the local low of November 10, updated by Tuesday's sharp rise in the U.S. dollar. "Bulls" successfully developed the dynamics due to the comments of the head of FRS in the US Congress, where he supported the idea of continuing the interest rates adjustment policy, and stated that the indicator will hold high positions for a long period of time. Taking into account the regulator's position, some investors revised their expectations of the March meeting results and now officials are expected to raise the value by 0.50% rather than by 0.25% as was expected earlier. It also assumes that the target will be updated to 5.60% in the second half of 2023.

Earlier in the publication came the January block of statistics of the Australian construction market, which turned out to be weak. For example, the overall rate of approved applications for construction work fell 27.6% and for private sector construction fell 13.8%, confirming a strong negative trend in the sector amid a systemic strengthening of the interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

  • Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800.
  • Support levels: 0.6563, 0.6500, 0.6450, 0.6400.

USDCAD: the pair is aiming for a 2022 peak

During the current week the USDCAD trading instrument broke through the psychological threshold of 1.3800, which made it possible to continue the upward trend to the previous year's record at 1.3960.

The positive dynamics became possible thanks to the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the interest rate at 4.50%, despite the high inflation of 5.9%. Accompanying comments of the officials let investors know that the regulator intends to keep the value at the current levels, but remains ready for further correction, taking into account the market environment. In addition, a continuation of quantitative easing program was announced.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3960 and 1.4100.
  • Support levels: 1.3670, 1.3470.
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Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and silver for Thursday, March 23
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and silver for Thursday, March 23 EURUSD: the pair is correcting in the ascending range of 1.0570-1.1200The lack of announcements on the financial calendar allows the pair EUR/USD to quote in a corrective trend around 1.0894.The market participants focused their attention around the comments of the European Central Bank management, which said that the most part of the monetary parameters correction is already passed, since the agency has already increased the interest rate by 350.0 percentage points since the summer of 2022. Christine Lagarde also said that high inflation and contradictory forecasts for its further dynamics will not affect "hawkish" mood among officials of the authority, despite declining economic growth and the likelihood of banking crisis in the region. Head of the ECB expressed confidence that the EU has sufficient economic strength, therefore over time will be able to reduce the consumer price index to the target of 2.0% and there is no reason for public panic. Recall that the day before the ECB had raised the interest rate by 0.50% and refrained from predicting any further action on monetary parameters.Resistance levels: 1.0940 and 1.1031.Support levels: 1.0790, 1.0570.USDJPY: The US dollar has resumed its declineThe trading instrument USDJPY is showing an active decline, reinforcing the dominance of the "bears", who had intercepted the initiative earlier. The asset trades at 130.50 in a decline in price, having updated the local minimum for February 10.The American currency continues to be under the impact of the negative factors against the background of the USA Federal Reserve System decisions to increase the interest rate by 0,25%, to the target value of 5.00%. Some experts expected to see more decisive results from the hawks and harsh comments from the head of the agency, but the official shared comments avoiding specific forecasts. Against this background, the assurances of officials at the Treasury Department and the U.S. Federal Reserve about full control of the stability of the banking sector have extremely low credibility with investors. The flow of moderate account closing and the outflow of liquidity from deposits at credit institutions across the regions continues because of depositors' fears of losing their funds.Resistance levels: 131.00, 132.00, 133.00, 134.00.Support levels: 130.00, 129.39, 128.62, 128.00.AUDUSD: The "Aussie" is testing the March highs on an upside breakoutThe AUDUSD trading instrument is showing active strengthening and is vigorously testing the 0.6740 mark, intending to consolidate positions at the local March 6 high reached earlier in reaction to the Fed's monetary parameters decision.According to preliminary forecasts, the agency raised the interest rate by 0.25% bringing the target to 5.00% and the highest since 2007. At the same time, investors have not received any forecasts from the head of the Fed on the next steps in 2023, and expert estimates of the value at the end of this year remain at the same level of 5.10%. The accompanying explanation of the officials indicates that the regulator is ready to make an additional correction of the key value in case of a separate need. The U.S. dollar came under immediate pressure on the Fed's final statements, but by the end of afternoon trading the instrument managed to win back its losses.Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853 and 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6563.Silver analyticsHolders of the U.S. currency suffered losses amid the rhetoric of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as the major competitors of the "American" strengthened considerably, including silver, reaching the 23.00 mark.The Fed forecasted the Fed to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.00%, marking a new high from 2007. Investors saw no concrete plans in Jerome Powell's statements for further correction steps through the end of this year, and the median expectation for the value through 2023 is held at 5.10% and through 2024 at 4.30%, strengthening from 4.10% for December. The termination of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, as well as the cumulative problems in the banking sector by region, was the impetus for the U.S. Federal Reserve to refuse to raise the interest rate by 0.50% in the short term. Meanwhile, investors in the precious metals market decided to make the most of it and increased demand for safe-haven assets, which increased the value, including that of silver.Resistance levels: 23.00, 24.50, 26.00.Support levels: 21.50, 20.00, 18.00.
Mar 23, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and Gold for today, March 22
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and Gold for today, March 22 EURUSD: investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decisionsA slight correction of the US dollar allowed EURUSD to test the level of 1.0769.There is no stimulus for fundamental changes in the dynamics of the euro, which was confirmed by the latest macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the current economic environment in Germany according to the ZEW index for March was -46.5 points, which is lower than the previous 45.1 points. The value of the economic sentiment declined from 28.1 points to 13.0 points. Such figures were an "anchor" for similar indicators of all countries in the euro area, which reached 10.0 points from 29.7 points. Analysts call the crisis in the banking sector the main reason for the correction.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0680, 1.0520.GBPUSD: correctional impulse developmentGBPUSD is showing a mixed trend being around 1.2230 being under the pressure of the "bullish" impulse which came earlier, when the asset rebounded from the local high of February 2.Investors are waiting for the publication of the statistics on consumer prices for February in the UK. Market expectations envisage decline of the value dynamics to 9.8% from 10.1% in the annual index, and the monthly index may show the growth of 0.6%, having earlier decreased by the similar indicator for January, at that the position of the core inflation indicator may remain at the level of 5.8%. In addition, economists want to assess retail price data; February's forecast is that the value may show an increase for the month to 0.6% from 0.0%, and for the year a slight correction to 13.2% from 13.4%.The kingdom's regulator was positive about Swiss authorities' support for the merger of two large-scale credit reproducers, Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS Group AG, the former of which faced the threat of closure amid insufficient liquidity due to massive outflows of funds from its accounts. According to comments from officials in the government, Credit Suisse Group AG's U.K. branch employs about 5,000 full-time workers, and the institution itself holds the largest number of employees in the investment sector in the City of London.Resistance levels: 1.2236, 1.2283, 1.2350, 1.2400.Support levels: 1.2176, 1.2140, 1.2100, 1.2054.USDCHF: Saudi National Bank is reviewing its investment in Credit Suisse GroupThe USDCHF trade instrument showed corrective moods in the morning session, completing the negative dynamics of the previous day due to weak activity on the market, where investors are waiting for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary issues.A summit of Swiss National Bank officials on interest rates is due tomorrow, March 23. The preliminary forecast of the analysts is unambiguous - the indicator will remain at the same level of 1.0%, taking into account a rather low value of the national inflation. Experts discuss the merger of banking conglomerates UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, which is estimated at 3.0 billion francs. The takeover is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year, as the process will bypass protocol approval from the institutions' shareholders, but the government has committed 9.0 billion francs to cover possible costs. Meanwhile, the largest investor for Credit Suisse Group AG, Saudi National Bank has lost 80.0% of its value since buying a 9.9% block of securities worth 1.4 billion francs last fall.Resistance levels are 0.9258, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9070.Gold analyticsThe precious metal is correcting at 1940.00 amid significant declines of the last two sessions in a row, which allowed the asset to retreat from the record high of April 2022 and the fundamental resistance threshold of 2000.00.Gold positions were pressured by rising yields on U.S. Treasury securities, which was only intensified by massive profit taking on long contracts ahead of the Fed officials' meeting on monetary policy. Preliminary estimates of analysts foresee the strengthening of the interest rate by no more than 0.25%, not ruling out that the agency may announce a temporary pause at all, refusing to tighten monetary parameters in the short term. The latter move may be taken wishing to deprive the growing crisis in the financial sector of further momentum, but investors will not accept such a decision. Still about 82% of economists agree that the regulator will increase the price threshold of borrowing by 0.25% and refrain from forecasting a further correction at the May meeting.Resistance levels: 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00, 2015.30.Support levels: 1930.00, 1914.44, 1900.00, 1878.84.
Mar 22, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and oil for today, March 21
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and oil for today, March 21 EURUSD: Markets await outcome of U.S. Federal Reserve meetingEURUSD is showing mixed trading, testing the level of 1.0710 and the local maximum of March 15, which was updated earlier.Meanwhile, ECB head Christine Lagarde said in her speech before the EP Monetary Affairs Committee that the regional economy is rather vulnerable. According to the official, the dynamics of inflation shows sufficient potential to stay high for a long time, and the key indicator is one of the key mechanisms for the stability of the situation. According to the forecast of experts of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banking institution, the gross domestic product of the EU will reach only 0.7%, while the previous estimate was 1.0%. The banking crisis that has the potential to affect the financial sector of the euro zone will be able to loosen the hawks' grip on the issue of monetary parameters correction, which will result in increasing the interest rate at the end of the next meeting of the regulatory agency officials only by 0.25% that will help avoid aggravation of the economic situation in the region. A 0.1% fall in inflation in February to 8.5% for the year due to lower energy prices to 13.7% from the previous 18.9% will contribute to strengthening the rhetoric of the "doves". ECB management reminded that officials are aware of the risks and are busy keeping a close eye on developments to apply preventive measures if necessary.Resistance levels: 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.NZDUSD: The "bears" have high chances to develop the potentialNZDUSD is moving steadily declining, revealing the potential of the "bears", which got the upper hand earlier, when the asset tested the local high of February 16.The block of macroeconomic statistics published the day before in New Zealand was unable to provide significant changes in the dynamics of the currency pair. Thus, exports in February slowed down to $5.23bn from $5.30bn, imports - to $5.95bn from $7.42bn. Thus, the level of the deficit in the trade balance for February remained at the previous levels of -$15.64 billion. Meanwhile, credit card spending for February unexpectedly gained 25.6% from January's strengthening of 17.9%, contrary to analysts' estimates of a decline to 9.4%.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350 and 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6049.AUDUSD: The RBA has assessed the willingness to raise the interest rate going forwardA weaker U.S. dollar allows the AUDUSD to test the 0.6690 level.Investors are studying the published reports on monetary issues, including the final minutes of the last meeting of the RBA officials, which have already noted that the agreement on the interest rate adjustment by 0.25% was reached before the meeting. According to the regulator, the national inflation dynamic is at its peak, but the demand for new home loans has collapsed and the construction market is showing enough negative signals for economists as rising prices and high mortgage rates continue to put pressure on the construction industry. The department agrees that subdued inflation will be able to provide an incentive to free up money supply from consumers to invest in the real estate sector even with the current mortgage situation. Based on the agreed arguments, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to tighten monetary policy going forward.Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6980.Support levels: 0.6610, 0.6390.Oil market analysisIn the morning session the price of WTI oil showed a slight decline having attempted to strengthen earlier and is now testing the level of 67.30, developing a drawdown in quotations.Investors were expecting China's economy to demonstrate higher recovery rates against the background of the rejection of the "zero tolerance" measures, which would remove a number of quarantine restrictions, as well as decrease the volume of raw material extraction capacities in Russia, but these expectations were not justified. In addition, market sentiment is an additional negative factor for "black gold", as traders fear that the banking sector will be too vulnerable to the crisis, catalyzing the global recession, which will affect the demand for energy market. According to the updated forecast released by the financial conglomerate Goldman Sachs, OPEC countries plan to increase the production volumes only by Q3 in 2024, and the price of oil may resume its positions at 94.00 for the next 12 months, after which it will consolidate at 97.00.Resistance levels: 68.04, 70.00, 71.00, 73.00.Support levels: 67.00, 65.74, 64.00, 63.00.
Mar 21, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY and Gold for today, March 20
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY and Gold for today, March 20 AUDUSD: Short-term sideways trend appears in the pairThe AUDUSD currency pair is trading in a moderate decline, resuming the dynamics of the "bears", having completed the two-day growth by the end of the previous week. The pair is in the area of 0.6700 descending correction, while the US dollar is under the pressure of the macroeconomic data and waiting for the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve's meeting, which is announced for the middle of the current week.Thus, analysts recorded a correction momentum for March consumer environment from the University of Michigan to 63.4 points from 67.0 points with a neutral market expectation, and industrial production for February showed zero growth, contrary to the forecasted decline to 0.2% from 0.3%. Market participants are predicting a hawkish course on monetary parameters from the Fed and a strengthening of the interest rate by 0.25% to reach the psychological threshold of the target of 5.00%, which may encourage regulator officials to take a wait-and-see break amid growing risks to the banking sector.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6563, 0.6500.USDCAD: The asset expects new incentives in the marketDuring the Asian trading the currency pair USDCAD shows a slight increase, holding positions in the area of 1.3720.Investors keep low dynamics on transactions, wishing to wait for new stimulus to activate the market. Experts continue to focus on the results of the meeting of the US FRS officials which will be held on Wednesday. They will be able to see the concrete decisions on the interest rate and to adjust their estimates regarding the further steps on the monetary policy. The current expectations foresee the increase of the index by 0,25% up to the target value of 5.00% while 26.0% of experts let the neutral dynamics at the current level of 4.75% be maintained. Recall that the cycle of incremental adjustment of the cost of credit borrowing faced significant challenges against the background of the evidence of the crisis in the national banking sector. Thus, the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank led the Treasury Department and the Fed to search for additional tools to stimulate economic stability, provoking a sharp increase in the agency's balance sheet and additional spending. The crisis was managed to buy, but investor sentiment did not ignore this fact, now they are concerned that the correction of the key indicator will only increase the shakiness of the situation.Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3900.Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3535.USDJPY: Experts are waiting to see the inflation dataThe trading instrument USDJPY is showing moderate strengthening, set to recover Friday's losses, which caused an update of the local low of February 14. The stock is in the area of 132.00, continuing to rise, but the "bulls" are very limited in potential.At the end of the week investors are waiting for the consumer price data for February. Preliminary estimates suggest that Japan's inflation rate will fall to 4.1% from 4.3% and the core indicator outside of the food group cost sector has a good chance of showing 3.1%, which is heavily inferior to January's value of 4.2% amid government subsidies for gas and electricity costs mitigating the sharp rise in households' living standards. Moreover, investors are waiting for Friday's statistics on Japanese business sentiment index, preliminary forecasts of which allow for a correction to 47.5 points from 47.7 points by Jibun Bank.Resistance levels: 133.00, 134.00, 134.54, 135.57.Support levels: 132.00, 131.00, 130.00, 129.39.Gold analysisThe precious metal is actively moving up towards 1975.0, taking advantage of a window of opportunity as the U.S. financial system is under severe pressure.Last week was marked by the bankruptcy of several major banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, which holds one of the top 30 credit institutions in the country. The financial uncertainty caused mass deposit closures by depositors, intensifying liquidity shortages, and the US Federal Reserve embarked on a stimulus package allowing banks to borrow from the regulator without an upper liquidity ceiling. Thus, last week the financial sector borrowed a record $300.0 billion from the regulator. By comparison, borrowing amounted to only $111.0 billion during the peak period of the 2008 crisis.Resistance levels: 1990.0, 2060.0.Support levels: 1950.0, 1870.0.
Mar 20, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, March 17, for USDCHF, EURGBP, USDTRY and gold
USD/CHF, currency, USD/TRY, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for today, March 17, for USDCHF, EURGBP, USDTRY and gold USDCHF: Swiss Central Bank assessed readiness to support Credit SuisseThe USDCHF trading instrument shows a moderate decline under the influence of the corrective impulse received earlier, where the asset occupied local highs for March 9.The franc gained support amid a change in investor sentiment on the further development of the crisis in the banking sector in Europe and the United States. We remind you that at the beginning of this week, official statements were made about the liquidation of a number of credit institutions in the United States, which required the intervention of federal authorities to localize the negative effect. Moreover, there was information about the liquidity problem of the financial institution Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland, which lost 30% of the value of securities, operations on which were stopped for some time because the largest investor Saudi National Bank refused to make additional investments. According to Bloomberg, by the end of 2022, the National bank of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia acquired 9.9% of the Credit Suisse package, and currently its share has decreased by 30% or more than 500.0 million francs. Meanwhile, the SNB confirmed its readiness to provide additional support for Credit Suisse in the amount of 50.0 billion. Swiss francs, which led to the stabilization of the situation. Reduction of losses from Credit Suisse's American depositary receipts decreased in price by up to 14% on the comments of regulatory authorities, and the European markets had already completed trading by that time.Resistance levels: 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9439.Support levels: 0.9258, 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100.EURGBP: the ECB raised the percentage indicatorDuring morning trading, the EURGBP pair shows a moderate decline, as part of the development of a short-term downtrend from March 8 and is located in the 0.8750 area. The asset is at the local minimum for December 21, updated last Wednesday.European investors continue to evaluate the final minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary parameters, which ended a day earlier, and officials adjusted the interest and deposit indicators by 0.50%, bringing the target level to 3.5% and 3.0%, respectively, which fully meets market expectations. The accompanying comments of the regulator signaled that inflation will remain at a high level for a long period, and also confirmed the readiness to apply additional stimulus measures if price and financial stability face the challenge of new threats. However, the regulator refrained from forecasts on further steps to tighten monetary parameters, prioritizing the stability of the financial and banking sectors, which have been aggravated since the beginning of the week after official information about the bankruptcy of a number of American credit institutions. The increased concerns about the Swiss bank Credit Suisse Group were completely offset by the information that the bank was supported by the National Bank of Switzerland in the amount of 54.0 billion dollars, which partially reduced the panic on the rank, and also restored the issuer's position on the sites.Resistance levels: 0.8775, 0.8801, 0.8841, 0.8875.Support levels: 0.8750, 0.8720, 0.8692, 0.8660.USDTRY: the elements are putting pressure on the Turkish economyThe USDTRY currency pair demonstrates a multidirectional trend, being in the area of 19.0000, developing growth. The losses of the Turkish lira to the "American" since March 2021 amounted to about 60%. Negative trends for the Turkish currency are reinforced by traders' fears about the consequences of natural disasters that occurred in February-March, against which more than 49.0 thousand people became victims, which was only intensified by floods that occurred in the provinces of southeastern Turkey. National economic indicators are under enormous pressure, which investors find confirmed in the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, which noted the borrowing of $ 2.25 billion through Eurobonds maturing until 2029, thus increasing the total volume of loans from international lenders to $ 5.0 billion.Resistance levels: 19.0789, 19.2000, 19.3000, 19.4000.Support levels: 18.8500, 18.7500, 18.6500, 18.5575.Gold PricesThe banking metal is quoted by rapid growth within the framework of the development of a stable trend for the near future, which has come since the first days of March. The asset is trading at 1930.00, holding the local maximum for February 2.Last evening, gold showed a moderate decline, as the publication of the final minutes of the summit of ECB officials followed. According to expectations, the agency decided to increase the key percentage by 0.50% to the target value of 3.50%. Alarming news from the financial world about the crisis among the European and American banking sectors has increased analysts' fears that the European Central Bank will reduce the correction step by raising the cost of borrowing by only 0.25%. Meanwhile, the European regulator improved its own expectations regarding inflation dynamics at the end of this year to 5.3% from the previous 6.3%, and also revised the GDP estimates for the end of 2023 to 1.0% from 0.5%. Increasing pressure on the position of the banking metal is an increase in the rate of US treasury securities, the growth of which on 10-year bonds amounted to 3.871% from the previous 3.577%.Resistance levels: 1937.50, 1968.75, 2000.00.Support levels: 1875.00, 1843.75, 1812.50.
Mar 17, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, March 16, for GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD and Gold
GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, March 16, for GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD and Gold GBPUSD: UK economic outlook assessed by the governmentTrading instrument GBPUSD is showing weak dynamics, trying to win back the losses of the last two sessions, in the backdrop of which the asset updated the local minimum of March 10. The pair traded around 1.2080, continuing to grow in anticipation of new stimulus for the correction.Earlier the head of financial authorities of the Kingdom Jerem Hunt provided the national budget for parliamentarians to study in order to stabilize economic indicators. Based on estimates based on OBR calculations, given the significant stabilization of energy costs reduction on an annual basis GDP showed a correction of only -0.2% instead of the -1.5% expected the day before, and will grow 1.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. Analysts expect the index to adjust for growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, which rules out the economy going into a technical recession this year, as expected the day before. The consumer inflation index should decline to 2.9% by early next year, which is well below its peak value of 10.1%. Moreover, the spring budget includes a bailout package for families who are prevented from returning to work by rising child-support costs. Meanwhile, a lifetime cap on tax-free retirement contributions is announced for April.Resistance levels: 1.2100, 1.2140, 1.2176, 1.2236.Support levels: 1.2054, 1.2000, 1.1933, 1.1875.USDJPY: Bank of Japan estimates the inflation outlook for the fiscal year 2024The trade shows a moderate decline in the downside momentum from earlier and the yen is limited upside due to weak macro statistics from Japan.For instance, the index industrial production for January showed a decline of 3.1% from the previous -2.3%, with the market estimating the figure at -2.3%. Monthly decline momentum accelerated to -5.3% from -4.6%, disappointing experts who expected neutral dynamics. Investors also noted rising exports for February by 6.5% after strengthening by 3.5% in the previous month at market estimates of 7.1%. Imports strengthened by 8.3% over the same period, significantly behind the previous month's 17.5%, while the forecast was for a positive 12.2%. A notable recovery in Japan's exports significantly narrowed the trade deficit for February to -897.7 billion yen from -3498.6 billion yen, surpassing experts' estimates of -1069.4 billion yen.Resistance levels: 134.00, 134.54, 135.57, 136.50.Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.00.USDCAD: The pair is testing the level 1.3750.During the Asian trading session, the trading instrument USDCAD shows a moderate decline at the level of 1.3750.Earlier, the U.S. dollar showed significant strengthening, allowing to fully offset losses from the beginning of the week amid reports on the liquidation of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, which caused a barrage of criticism from investors, collapsing the quotes. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, in turn, hastened to stabilize the situation, promising guaranteed payments for all lost deposits and announcing additional measures for emergency funding of the banking sector in order to avoid similar events in the future. Economists agree that the financial authority will take a break in the cycle of systemic tightening of monetary parameters and refrain from the decision to strengthen the interest rate by 0.25% at the end of the meeting announced for next week.Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3900 and 1.3950.Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600.Gold PricesThe precious metal is actively strengthening for the second week in a row, making a new high of the last two months, reaching the level of 1937.50. Gold increased its attractiveness among investors, as a hedge asset based on two factors: the developing banking crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Investors are most concerned about the likely lack of liquidity in the banking sector, because the liquidation of Signature Bank and SVB may provoke a similar process around the world, followed by a decrease in the volume of loans issued, business activity will noticeably decrease, and the global economy will come under serious pressure. According to investors, such concerns are not unfounded, especially since a negative trend is beginning to be observed in the eurozone, ignoring the joint statements of officials at various levels about the fact that the banking sector is protected and the stability of the financial system is at a reliable level. During the last week, UniCredit Group, FinecoBank S.p.A., Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Credit Suisse Group actively lost positions in the markets, and the latter was at risk of bankruptcy, which forced the Swiss Central Bank to allocate an additional 50.0 billion. francs to stimulate the institution. The general trend across the regions allows for the manifestation of a crisis situation in the short term, despite the efforts of the authorities to stabilize the situation, and investors will have to look for more stable assets, among which gold becomes more attractive.Resistance levels: 1937.50, 1968.75, 2000.00.Support levels: 1875.00, 1843.75, 1812.50.
Mar 16, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD and Crude oil for today, March 15
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD and Crude oil for today, March 15 EURUSD: the bulls got a weak advantage in the pairEURUSD is trading in a weak growth trying to develop the upward trend from the middle of the previous week. The asset reached the level of 1.0750 continuing to strengthen, having updated the local maximum of February 14.Trading continues at a moderate pace as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the ECB meeting due on Thursday. Recall that at the end of the meeting analysts expect to see correction of the interest rate by 0.50% and increase of the key rate to 3.5% per annum, and then do not rule out that the regulator will give priority to a pause for evaluation of the measures approved earlier. By Friday, March 17, experts expect the publication of February data on the consumer price index, which may influence further steps of the European Central Bank on the issue of monetary parameters in the near future. Based on estimates, inflation will add 0.8% on a monthly basis and 8.5% on an annual basis, continuing well above the department's target of 2.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.NZDUSD: the asset is testing the local highsThe NZDUSD trading instrument displays mixed momentum, holding in the area of 0.6230. The currency pair retains the potential for upward dynamics, which was formed the previous week and gave an opportunity to update the local maximum of March 1. Meanwhile, bullish factors caused by the liquidation of several US banking institutions - Signature Bank and Silicon Valley, by the beginning of the week, are gradually losing their influence. The U.S. stock market showed earlier correctional growth, and the shares of many companies failed to recover the significant loss of positions from the beginning of the week, despite the announcement of the emergency stimulation program for the banking sector from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the rhetoric of the country leader Joe Biden, which gave signals to investors that the situation in the economy is under control.The day before the publication came the macroeconomic statistics block from the USA, which also helped the market stability. For instance, consumer prices for February slowed to 6.0% from 6.4% and the core value slowed from 5.6% to 5.5%, just as analysts had predicted. Weakening inflation momentum going forward will allow the Fed to avoid increasing the pace of borrowing cost corrections so as not to exacerbate the situation of a possible banking and financial crisis in the country.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100 and 0.6049.USDJPY: Japanese regulator keeps ultra-soft monetary policyNegative dynamics in the US dollar allows the USDJPY to correct at 134.51."The Japanese" intends to strengthen the positive dynamics against the background of the publication of the final minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan, as there were no fundamental changes in the monetary parameters, but there was a separate correction. Thus, the Bank of Japan announced an additional auction of Treasury securities, and investors will see the offer of 10-year bonds at a rate of 0.5% on each business day thanks to the operations with rate fixing. Moreover, the regulator itself will increase the volume on Treasury securities in the market at the announced rate, continuing to buy back exchange-traded real estate trusts and ETF funds, topping out at 180.0 billion yen and 12.0 trillion yen respectively, supplementing operations by buying back corporate-segment bonds to return their outstanding value to 3.0 trillion yen, as it did before the covid-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 135.60, 137.90.Support levels: 133.20, 130.50.Crude Oil market analysisHaving completed the downward dynamic from the beginning of the week which helped it to reach the local minimum of December 12, today, March 15, in the morning trading the oil grade WTI is quoted by the correction, being at the level of 72.50, which is supported by technical factors.Pressure on the asset stems from growing concerns over the prospects for the global and American economies. Thus, the closing of some banking institutions in the U.S. signaled the markets about the vulnerability of the banking sector in particular and the financial system as a whole to the regular monetary policy tightening and the market uncertainty. In turn, the Treasury Department announced emergency stimulus measures for banks, supporting depositors, thereby assuring that their deposits remaining in the accounts of liquidated institutions will be paid to depositors, while the amounts in the accounts at SVB bank mostly exceeded the insurance limit.Resistance levels: 73.00, 74.00, 76.00, 78.00.Support levels: 71.00, 70.00, 68.15, 67.00.
Mar 15, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for AUDUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD and Gold for today, March 14
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for AUDUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD and Gold for today, March 14 AUDUSD: bears have intercepted the initiative in the pairAfter completing its upward trend the day before, the AUDUSD trading instrument has shown a moderate correction, testing 0.6659.Pressure on the pair at the trading session on Tuesday is given by the uncertain macroeconomic statistics block, according to which the business confidence index of the National Bank of Australia for February showed a decline to -4.0 points from 6.0 points with the forecast to see the zero dynamics. The position of the corresponding indicator of conditions adjusted to 17.0 points from 18.0 points with the forecast to strengthen to 21.0 points. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for March posted zero growth and a 6.9% decline in the month before, with the market expecting a 0.1% gain.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6563, 0.6500, 0.6450.USDJPY: Japanese economy continues to be under pressureAccording to the information from the trading floors, the USDJPY is slightly strengthening and has again tested the 134.00 level. The pair is regaining ground after ending a three-day "bearish" rally, which was followed by an update of the local highs of February 14.The Japanese economy remains in a difficult situation. Despite consumer prices in December reaching a maximum of over 40 years at 4.0%, surpassing the target set by the national regulator, and government debt at 1.0 trillion yen or 266% of gross domestic product in January, the Bank of Japan continues to keep monetary parameters on the current super soft vector, including keeping the interest rate in negative territory, fearing the onset of deflation. Officials agree that rising prices do not have a sustainable trend and expect inflation to lose its potential by the end of 2023. But a recent Center for Economic Research in Japan forecast a seasonally adjusted GDP figure for January that was down 0.6% from December, the biggest drop since August 2022. Economists argue that a continuation of the current trend will cause the national economy to lose 3.4% for the year already in Q1.Resistance levels: 134.00, 134.54, 135.57, 136.50.Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.00.NZDUSD: the position is in the trend of the head & shoulders reversal pattern.A sharp weakening of the US dollar allowed the pair NZDUSD to go to the local growth at 0.6206.The positive dynamics was caused by the macroeconomic statistics, based on which the food products group increased by 1.5% in February, taking into account the seasonal fluctuations, showing 2.1%. A significant strengthening of the cost of fruits and vegetables by 5.6%, soft drinks by 1.6%, meat and poultry - 0.6%. Meanwhile, tourism industry statistics showed an increase in the number of foreign tourists visiting New Zealand in January to 265,400, surpassing the same month in 2022 by 261,400.Support levels: 0.6156, 0.6000.Resistance levels: 0.6265 and 0.6400.Gold analysisThe precious metal is quoted in decline, because the "bulls" lost potential in the last three trading sessions, which allowed the asset to update the local high of February 3. At the moment, the gold is held around 1900.00, continuing its decline.Japan also shows upward dynamics, where the bank metal managed earlier to update the level of 66.67, having surpassed the level of the previous week by 32.0 yen. As it follows from the reports of industrial producer using precious metals Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK, the upward trend signals about the uncertainty of market participants about the further stability of the "American" amid the collapse of several banking institutions - Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, which pushes investors to redirect their capital to more secure instruments of the market. The day before, holding a press conference, the US President Joe Biden announced his appeal to Congressmen with a petition to tighten regulatory measures in the industry in order to "minimize the probability of recurrence of bank failures". At the same time, the Fed and Treasury Department officials launched an emergency aid program for credit institutions, which will stimulate the sale of treasury securities at par, thereby increasing the necessary level of liquidity.Resistance levels: 1914.44, 1930.00, 1952.53, 1974.22.Support levels: 1900.00, 1878.84, 1869.49, 1857.27.
Mar 14, 2023 Read
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