GBPUSD: the instrument is in a sideways trend
GBPUSD is displaying a mixed dynamics, having completed a moderate rise earlier, where the asset has successfully win back its losses of the first days of the current week. Meanwhile, the pound has strengthened due to the release of contradictory data in the UK.
Thus, the February unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from 3.7%, contrary to analysts' expectations of zero. The number of applications for subsidies from the Kingdom to the unemployed population in March added 28.2 thousand to the previous decrease of 18.8 thousand in February, against expectations of a decline of 11.8 thousand. In particular, the average payrolls excluding bonuses for February rose by 6.6%, matching the revised January figure, but surpassing the forecasted decline to 6.2%, and the value including bonuses rose by 5.9%, against market expectations of 5.1%.
- Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.
- Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2283, 1.2236.
USDJPY: еhe "American" is not leaving its attempts to get stronger
The USDJPY continues to strengthen, holding at 134.30. The U.S. dollar is set to win back its earlier losses amid a weak set of U.S. macro data.
Thus, the volume of approved building applications for March fell by 8.8% from the previous 15.8% growth in February, contrary to the estimates of a decline to 1.45%, and the indicator of new residential real estate decreased by 0.8%, having previously strengthened by 7.3%, which failed to justify the forecasted growth of 0.4%.
The weak U.S. currency serves as a driver of fears among investors about the onset of an economic recession, as market sentiment has deteriorated significantly amid liquidations of major facilities in the banking sector and media speculation on the topic of another global economic crisis. The US national debt is also a subject of concern among investors, but it is not possible to give forecasts in the current circumstances. Recall that the current limitations on government debt gives room for maneuvering to the government until the summer, where officials will have to return to the question of increasing the limits.
- Resistance levels: 134.69, 135.57, 136.50, 137.50.
- Support levels: 133.74, 133.00, 132.00, 131.00.
USDCHF: consolidation at the local maximum
In morning trading the currency pair USDCHF shows a moderate growth, recovering the losses of the insignificant decline earlier, consolidates at 0.8975, being at a local high of April 12.
The day before the published macroeconomic data block from the Eurozone didn't support the franc, as business sentiment of the ZEW index of Germany in April dropped to 4.1 points from 13.0 points against the market expectations of strengthening to 15.1 points. The German economic environment dynamic was revised in favor of an upward correction to -32.5 points from -46.5 points, well above estimates of -40.0 points. Eurozone economic sentiment declined to 6.4 points from 10.0 points, with analysts expecting a rise to 19.8 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9030, 0.9070 and 0.9100.
- Support levels: 0.8960, 0.8920, 0.8858, 0.8800.
Gold prices
The precious metal is quoted in an upward trend in the area of 2000.0.
Contrary to the suspension of the positive trend amid downward inflation in the U.S. to 5.0% from 6.0% last month, investors are set for further gains in gold, even after the normalization of the U.S. currency fluctuations.
The peak of the positive momentum declined between April 12 and April 15, which had a significant impact on demand for the bank metal's contracts. Thus, as follows from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange data, positions of bidders fell in number to 176.0 thousand positions to 370.0 thousand by the end of March, but in the extreme days the trend resumed the uptrend, reaching the level of 276.7 thousand contracts the day before. The key factor for forecasting purposes of the instrument in future is expressed in their structure, because the extreme days reflected the sharp growth of option positions, which now reached 86.7 thousand positions, which renewed the record correction dynamics of even the most dynamic fluctuations in the value of gold in the past. Market participants attribute this situation to the readiness of the asset to test the key resistance level at 2100.0, so investors increase the rate of option positions formation at this level, assuming its break-up upwards.
- Resistance levels: 2040.0, 2120.0.
- Support levels: 1960.0, 1900.0.