EURUSD: consolidation at the local maximum
During Friday's trading session the EUR/USD currency pair is developing a sideways trend on the market, being at a local high of 1.0520 on June 28.
In the last two trading sessions the EUR has rapidly strengthened on the trading floors on the statements of the head of the US Federal Reserve about his intention to decrease the activity of interest rate strengthening. Meanwhile, positive data on consumer prices gave additional support to the instrument, which contributed to the reduction of panic moods about the depth of economic recession in the region. Thus, the EU annualized inflation rate for November fell to 10.0% from 10.6%, while experts expected it to be 0.4% higher, and the monthly calculation showed a deflationary process - a decrease of 0.1%, having earlier strengthened by 1.5% for October. Moreover, economists were able to estimate retail sales in Germany for October which showed a decrease of 2.8% against expectations of 0.6%, and an annual value of 5.0% against expectations of 2.8%. This situation is due to an increase in the cost of goods and services due to which households have reduced the level of demand in all segments. Economists are preparing for a downturn in holiday goods at Christmas and a recession in the German economy by Q4.
- Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0640, 1.0700.
- Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350.
GBPUSD: waiting for signals from the statistics
The British currency shows mixed dynamics, having kept the local maximum of June 27 updated earlier. GBP/USD is at 1.2240, reinforcing a positive trend, but investors are refraining from excessive trading activity on the threshold of the weekend.
Today market participants will want to get acquainted with the announced publications on the US employment market. The current estimation foresees the downfall of the new vacancies, without taking into account the AIC sector, for November down to 200.0 thousand from the current 261.0 thousand. Taking into consideration the previous day released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) corporate reporting on the private sector employment, which came to 127.0 thousand to the expected 200.0 thousand, the probability of the real dynamics worsening is still high. Experts allow for a moderate decline in the rate of increase in hourly earnings to 0.3% from the current 0.4%.
- Resistance levels: 1.2311, 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2600.
- Support levels: 1.2152, 1.2027, 1.1939, 1.1853.
USDCAD: pair is moving in the sideways trend
During the Asian trading session the pair USD/CAD is demonstrating sideways movement of quotations, testing the level of 1.3440.
Investors are gradually reducing the activity at the session, waiting for the US and Canada employment data in November, the "American" meanwhile is under the influence of the negative factors after the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell`s statement the day before. The official announced plans to reduce the rate of interest rate hike, so it is more appropriate to reduce the degree of "hawks" in tightening of monetary policy. Analysts believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve will strengthen the key indicator at the December meeting to a maximum of 0.50%, followed by an analysis of the situation. Employment expectations call for a 200,000 increase in the non-farm payrolls rate, having previously strengthened by 261,000 in the previous period. Data from Canada may turn out to be even more negative, as market participants expect an increase in the level of employed population by only 5.0 thousand for November, while for October the same indicator was increased by 108.3 thousand.
- Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.
- Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226.
USDJPY: pair is under the influence of the bears
The weaker USD/JPY has allowed the pair USD/JPY to consolidate under the key level of 139.00, after which there is an opportunity to consolidate at the levels of 132.00-130.00.
Meanwhile, the situation in the economy of Japan is positive. Thus, the retail sales for October rose by 4,3% mom, which did not meet the market expectations of 5.0%, however it was quite a strong result, capital investments for Q3 added 9,8% yoy, exceeding analysts' estimates of 6.4% and the previous 4,6%. Investors reacted positively to the statistics because it significantly strengthened Japanese Yen.
Economists are expecting the publication of the labor market in the United States, announced for today at 15:30 (GMT+2), which according to preliminary data will amount to 200.0 thousand. However, if the actual statistics does not match the expected one, trading instrument USD/JPY has a chance to develop the momentum of "bears".
- Resistance levels: 139.50, 142.50.
- Support levels: 135.00, 132.00, 130.00.