EURUSD: U.S. real estate builds up selling dynamics
EURUSD is under correctional sentiment at 1.0546 because of the weak macroeconomic background.
Friday's Q4 2022 GDP data showed a 0.4% YoY slowdown that failed to meet market expectations at -0.2% while the annual rate was down 0.3% from 0.5%, confirming a negative trend in the economy that may lead to a recession in the short-term. On Monday, February 27 at 12:00 GMT+2 the publication will include business expectations and manufacturing sentiment indices as well as consumer confidence indicator data, which may show a level of -19.0 points.
- Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0740.
- Support levels: 1.0480, 1.0320.
USDJPY: The "American" is holding local highs
USDJPY traded multidirectional dynamics, testing 136.30, or the local high of December 20, due to statements of Kazuo Uzda, the next head of the Japanese regulator.
The official confirmed the uncertainty amongst the country's economic indicators for further recovery, which gives support to the current course of the monetary policy department and the reason to keep the interest rate in the negative value. Recall that last Friday was marked by evidence that inflation will increase pressure on the Japanese economy. Thus, the consumer prices index for January accelerated growth to 4.3% from 4.0%, against the market expectation of 4.5%, and the value of the non-food and energy sector strengthened to 3.2% from 3.0%, which meets preliminary estimates of experts.
- Resistance levels: 136.50, 137.50, 138.50, 139.58.
- Support levels: 135.57, 134.50, 133.61, 133.00.
GBPUSD: the instrument broke through the level of 1.2000 under the pressure of the bears
Currency pair GBPUSD is moving under the influence of contradictory factors, being in the area of 1.1945 and the local minimum of February 17, updated at the end of the previous week due to the strong macroeconomic data from the United States.
For instance, new home sales were up 7.2% on a revised 7.2% gain from 2.3% in the prior week, with the market estimated to be up 2.5%. The U.S. personal spending figure strengthened 1.8% to -0.1% last month, with analysts expecting a positive 1.3%, and income adjusted to 0.6% from 0.3%, just behind economists' forecast of 0.9%.
A slight support for the pound last Friday was provided by macroeconomic indicators from Great Britain. Thus, the consumer confidence index from Gfk Group for February rose to -38.0 points from -45.0 points, which beat experts' estimates of -43.0 points. Growing consumer confidence signals the stabilization of the Kingdom's national economy, which gives reason to expect further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England, while the market expects the index to increase from the current 4.0% to 4.6% before the fall of this year.
- Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2084, 1.2150 and 1.2192.
- Support levels: 1.1900, 1.1800, 1.1700, 1.1600.
USDCAD: the news background has supported the "American".
In the trading session of the APAC countries the pair USDCAD shows an upward dynamic around 1.3616, developing growth due to macroeconomic data.
On the eve of the release there were positive indicators of incomes and expenses of the US citizens in January and positive dynamics of new home sales this year, allowing analysts to expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its interest rate strengthening in the future, which might update its peak value at 5.35% by the mid-summer. The rate has now reached the 4.75% area, which is forecast to rise by 0.25% following the agency's March policy meeting. Early in the week, investors will want to assess January's statistics on durable goods orders, which are forecast to show a correction of 4.0%, having earlier strengthened by 5.6% in the previous month.
- Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.
- Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.